NZDUSD: сontradictory moods prevail in the pair
The pair NZDUSD shows a mixed trend staying in the area of 0.6200. The market is still in low activity, compensating for Friday's sharp decline on April 14, when traders were studying the U.S. macroeconomic statistics.
For instance, industrial activity for March strengthened to 0.4% from 0.2% and the engaged asset ratio was 79.8% from last week's 79.5%, contrary to market expectations for a slowdown to 79.0%. Meanwhile, consumer confidence from the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for April increased to 63.5 points from 62.0 points. However, the market also noted a sharp decline in retail sales, as the March reading was down 1.0%, continuing the previous correction of 0.2% for February, against analysts' estimates of only -0.4%, and auto demand was down 0.8%, with a zero swing for the prior period contrary to estimates of -0.3%.
- Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6300, 0.6350, 0.6400.
- Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6166, 0.6138, 0.6100.
USDCAD: Canada's manufacturing sector has declined
Stabilization in the value of the U.S. dollar allowed the currency pair USDCAD to test 1.3487.
The Canadian currency was under the pressure since last Friday due to the manufacturing sales data for February, as the value decreased by 3.6% against the previous month to 71.5 billion CAD against a 4.5% strengthening of the previous month. All twelve industries were negative, led by the coal and oil sectors, which lost 14.9%, primary metals processing, down 4.2%, and automobile manufacturing, down 12.3%. The indicator continues to be negatively impacted by corrective declines in selling prices and demand volume due to high national inflation which could trigger further declines in the monthly value.
- Resistance levels: 1.3420 and 1.3550.
- Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3110.
Gold price analytics
The precious metal is quoted up, having earlier undergone a downward correction last Friday, April 14. The asset is set to cross the psychological threshold at 2000.00 again, being under pressure on market expectations for tighter monetary parameters from the U.S. Federal Reserve in the future.
Friday's data from the USA has aggravated such investor sentiment, that is why more than 80.0% of experts bet on the interest rate increase after the summit of the agency announced for May 2-3. The retail sales in the United States were weak, because in March the value fell by 1.0%, having earlier decreased by 0.2%, having been revised down from -0.4%, while analysts expected the fall by only 0.4%. Investors also expect the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of England to continue their cyclical key rate increases as well, but each regulator will be guided by published macroeconomic statistics for the regions. So, tomorrow, on April 18, the release of the Canadian consumer inflation data for March is announced. According to the preliminary market estimates the consumer price index will decrease to 4.3% from 5.2% and the base value of the Central Bank of Canada to 4.2% from 4.7%.
- Resistance levels: 2015.30, 2030.00, 2050.00, 2085.00.
- Support levels: 2000.00, 1981.46, 1960.00, 1943.80.
Crude Oil market overview
During the morning session, the price of the "black gold" of the benchmark Brent grade is under the influence of contradictory factors, holding at 86.00. By the end of the previous week the asset showed a moderate decline, but the potential of the "bulls" is preserved.
Meanwhile, according to the survey statistics, Russia has renewed a new peak of 3.5 million barrels of oil transported by sea per day, surpassing the level recorded before the military invasion of Ukraine and further approval of economic restrictions by Western countries. Thus, Russian exports are now focused on the development of new markets, primarily China and India, whose share is up to 90.0%, or about 1.5 million barrels per day, to 8.0% supplied to Europe. On the eve of Russia did not exceed the figure of 25.0% of oil imports to China, but now the figure has strengthened to 36.0%, while India purchased only 1.0% of the fuel to the current 51.0% supplied by Russia of the total supply. In turn, IEA experts noted the collapse of Russian revenues from hydrocarbon sales by 43.0% in the annual figure to 12.7 billion in March.
- Resistance levels: 86.00, 87.00, 88.79, 91.00.
- Support levels: 84.50, 83.50, 82.64, 81.00.