Forex analytical forecast for today, August 30, for AUDUSD, USDJPY, Brent & Gold

EUR/USD: ECB member Schnabel explains the economic weakness of the eurozoneThe EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, holding at the level of 1.0460, despite the weakening of the US dollar. Macroeconomic statistics remain weak and do not contribute to the strengthening of the euro. In January, the consumer price index in the eurozone decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, which led to an annual increase from 2.4% to 2.5%. However, core inflation slowed by 0.9%, remaining at 2.7%. This creates the conditions for further easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), as economic growth continues to slow down. In Germany, the recession is intensifying: in the fourth quarter, GDP decreased from 0.1% to -0.2% month-on-month and from -0.3% to -0.2% year-on-year, indicating a deterioration in the economic situation.Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by a decrease in the German consumer climate index from GfK Group, which fell from -22.6 to -24.7 points in March, while analysts had forecast -21.7 points. The reason for the weakening of the indicator was the political instability in the country. Meanwhile, ECB board member Isabelle Schnabel said that the main reason for the economic weakness of the eurozone remains structural problems, and not the high cost of borrowing, which, according to some experts, limits lending and slows down economic growth.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0680.Support levels: 1.0420, 1.0240.USD/CHF: Bullish momentum is gaining strength, the dollar is strengtheningThe USD/CHF pair continues to grow steadily during the morning trading session, developing an upward movement that began the day before after a rebound from the local lows of December 23, 2024. Quotes are approaching the level of 0.8970, testing the level for an upward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for the release of important macroeconomic data from the United States that can set the further direction of movement.Investors' main attention today is focused on the publication at 15:30 (GMT+2) of US GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as on January statistics on orders for durable goods. The growth rate of the US economy is expected to remain at 2.3%, while orders for capital goods may increase by 2.0% after a decrease of -2.2% a month earlier. The indicator, excluding defense and aviation contracts, is projected to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%. Data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will also be published today: it is assumed that the number of initial applications for the week ending February 21 will increase from 219.0 thousand to 221.0 thousand, and the number of repeat applications (for the period up to February 14) will remain at 1.869 million. On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will monitor the key inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve — the personal consumption expenditures index. According to forecasts, the base rate in annual terms may slow down from 2.8% to 2.6%, while on a monthly basis it is expected to increase from 0.2% to 0.3%. At the same time, the broader index is likely to decline from 2.6% to 2.3%, while maintaining growth at 0.3%. These data may affect the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy and the further dynamics of the dollar.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8952, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.USD/TRY: Turkish Finance Minister confident of success of Erdogan's reformsThe USD/TRY pair remains in a sideways movement, trading near 36.4500 and the recent high of 36.5400, updated at the end of last week. The activity of dollar buyers has decreased against the background of the current macroeconomic background, however, rising yields on US Treasury bonds support demand for the US currency. At the same time, traders take profits by closing some of their long positions, which limits the potential for further appreciation.The lira may strengthen if the forecasts of the Central Bank of Turkey turn out to be correct, but the economic situation remains difficult. Annual inflation slowed to 42.12% in January, but against the background of an increase in the minimum wage, monthly consumer price growth was 5.03%. Investors also drew attention to the refusal of the authorities from the planned increase in the cost of medical services, which may ease inflationary pressure in the coming months: according to preliminary forecasts, the indicator may decrease to 3.0% in February. Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek said that the ongoing structural reform program presented by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the congress of the ruling Justice and Development Party should help stabilize prices, strengthen budget discipline and reduce the current account deficit. The Head of State noted that over the past 22 years, the volume of industrial production with high added value has grown from $95.0 billion to $320.0 billion, and in terms of purchasing power parity, Turkey ranked 11th in the world and 4th in the European Union in 2023.Resistance levels: 36.5000, 36.5406, 36.6000, 36.6500.Support levels: 36.4000, 36.3189, 36.2000, 36.1000.Silver market analysisSilver quotes are showing a downward movement in morning trading, declining again after a slight increase the day before, which temporarily allowed quotes to retreat from the lows of February 11, updated on Tuesday. The asset is testing support at 31.60, being under pressure from the strengthening US dollar. The US currency is supported by technical factors, rising Treasury yields, as well as President Donald Trump's tough tariff policy, which promotes capital outflow into defensive assets. An additional impact is the growing industrial demand, especially in the renewable energy sector, as well as the projected shortage of silver supplies against the background of positive forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for global economic growth in 2025.Investors are awaiting key macroeconomic reports from the United States today, which are scheduled to be published at 15:30 (GMT+2). Among them are GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 and information on durable goods orders for January. Analysts' forecasts suggest that economic growth will remain at 2.3%, and orders for capital goods may increase by 2.0% after falling by -2.2% a month earlier. Excluding aviation and defense contracts, the indicator is expected to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%. The market will also pay attention to statistics on unemployment benefits: the number of initial applications for the week of February 21 is expected to grow from 219.0 thousand to 221.0 thousand, and the number of repeat applications (for the week of February 14) will remain at 1.869 million.The correction in the precious metals market continues, as confirmed by the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the regulator, net speculative positions in silver increased from 49.7 thousand to 54.5 thousand in a week. The balance of market participants has also shifted towards the bulls: their positions secured by real money have increased to 59,139 thousand, while the bears remain at 19,737 thousand. Over the past week, traders have opened an additional 4,380 thousand. purchase contracts, while sales increased by only 0.030 thousand, which indicates continued interest in the asset even against the background of a short-term decline.Resistance levels: 32.00, 32.27, 32.60, 33.00.Support levels: 31.56, 31.30, 31.00, 30.77.

EUR/USD: bulls get a chance to update local peaksDuring Asian trading, the European currency remains near the 1.0489 mark, correcting after the recent update of local highs on January 27. The market is showing restrained dynamics, as at the moment there are no important macroeconomic factors that can set the direction of movement. Investors focused on the possible resumption of tariff restrictions, which US President Donald Trump announced at the beginning of the month.Starting on March 4, 25% duties on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, which were previously postponed for a month as part of preliminary agreements, will come into force. At the same time, the introduction of similar measures against EU products is not excluded, as Trump has repeatedly accused Brussels of unfair trade policy towards the United States. Experts believe that pressure on the European Union may increase in the framework of negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, given the resistance of individual countries in the region. In addition, the US president has repeatedly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, which also causes controversy in international relations.The market's focus remains on the comments of European officials, which may give signals about the future monetary policy of the ECB. Pierre Wunsch, a member of the regulator's governing council and head of the National Bank of Belgium, called for a cautious approach to adjusting interest rates in order to avoid the risk of an excessive decline in the indicator. In turn, Joachim Nagel, President of the German Federal Bank, noted that price dynamics allow us to expect the target inflation rate to be reached this year. In this regard, market participants predict that the ECB will cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time at the next meeting, as inflation, which exceeded double digits after the events of 2022, has now stabilized just above 2.0%. Additionally, traders drew attention to the final German GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024: the country's economy shrank by -0.2% in quarterly terms and by -0.4% year-on-year, which coincided with analysts' forecasts.Resistance levels: 1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0654.Support levels: 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0342, 1.0300.GBP/USD: the market expects a rate cut of 75 bp during the yearThe GBP/USD pair shows a downward trend during the morning trading session, returning to a corrective decline. The exchange rate is testing support at 1.2640, while traders expect new factors to appear that could affect further movement. Market participants continue to analyze the macroeconomic statistics for last Friday, assessing its impact on the prospects of the British currency.The January retail sales data in the UK turned out to be higher than expected, which supported the strengthening of the pound. On a monthly basis, the index rose by 1.7% after falling by -0.6% in December, although only 0.3% growth was forecast. On an annualized basis, sales slowed from 2.8% to 1.0%, but exceeded the projected 0.6%. Excluding fuel, growth was 2.1% month-on-month and 1.2% year-on-year, which was also higher than expected at 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively. However, business activity showed mixed results: the S&P Global index in the industrial sector in February fell from 48.3 to 46.4 points against forecasts of 48.4 points, while in the service sector the indicator strengthened from 50.9 to 51.1 points, exceeding preliminary estimates of 50.8 points.The issue of the rate of interest rate reduction by the Bank of England remains in the spotlight, as stated by the representative of the Monetary Policy Committee, Swati Dhingra. During her speech at Birkbeck, she noted that a gradual reduction in the cost of borrowing does not necessarily mean a standard reduction of 25 basis points. At the same time, according to a survey of leading economists conducted by Reuters, most experts predict that the British regulator will continue to ease monetary policy, reducing the rate by 75 basis points during the year.Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2690, 1.2747, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.NZD/USD: the pair is preparing for continued growth after a pullbackDuring the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair fell back to around 0.5710 after steadily rising 3.5% in January and February. Despite the correction, the overall macroeconomic background remains favorable for the continuation of the upward movement. According to published statistics, the core retail sales index in New Zealand for the fourth quarter increased by 1.4% on a quarterly basis, which significantly exceeded the forecast of 0.2%. The previous data was revised upward from -0.8% to -0.6%, and total sales for the same period increased from 0.0% to 0.9%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.5%.Additional support for the national currency is provided by the prospect of further easing of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The regulator has already lowered the rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.75%, and, according to the head of the department, Adrian Orr, it is likely to reach 3.00% by the end of the year. This means that at least two more stages of decline are possible in the coming months. However, the current weakening of the New Zealand dollar is due to the strengthening of the US currency, which was the market's reaction to statements by US President Donald Trump about the introduction of new duties on copper imports. These measures contribute to the growth of demand for the dollar, putting additional pressure on the NZD/USD.Resistance levels: 0.5795, 0.5928.Support levels: 0.5690, 0.5600.WTI oil market analysisWTI crude oil prices show a multidirectional movement during the morning trading session, consolidating around 69.00 and remaining at the lowest values since December 23, updated the day before. Expectations of a possible diplomatic resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are putting pressure on the market, which reduces demand for defensive assets, including commodities. The administration of US President Donald Trump is actively promoting initiatives to end hostilities, while simultaneously taking steps to restore diplomatic ties with Russia. The first meetings of the delegations have already taken place in Saudi Arabia, and experts believe that if agreements are reached, a partial revision of the sanctions policy is possible, including easing restrictions on Russian energy exports via sea routes and pipeline systems.Additional pressure on oil is exerted by the resumption of exports of raw materials from Iraqi Kurdistan. On Monday, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani announced that supplies would resume after the final approval of technical details with Ankara. According to experts, transportation volumes will amount to about 185.0 thousand barrels per day, which may increase pressure on the market and limit the growth potential of oil prices.Resistance levels: 69.00, 70.00, 71.00, 71.62.Support levels: 68.30, 67.00, 66.00, 65.00.

USD/CHF: quarterly employment in Switzerland in the spotlightThe USD/CHF pair is in the correction phase, trading around 0.8969, with the potential for further decline amid strong macroeconomic data from Switzerland.A stable labor market remains one of the key factors supporting the franc. In the fourth quarter, employment in the non-agricultural sector increased by 0.9%, equivalent to 48.3 thousand new jobs. At the same time, the number of open vacancies decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, which indicates a high level of job occupancy. The share of companies planning to expand their staff was 11.7%, while only 4.7% of employers intend to reduce staff. This stability in the labor market provides the Swiss National Bank with additional arguments in favor of further lowering the interest rate, which is likely to reach 0.00% by the end of the year.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9120.Support levels: 0.8940, 0.8810.AUD/USD: the exchange rate moved to correction before the inflation reportThe Australian dollar is showing moderate growth in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, correcting the previous two-day decline. After a pullback from local highs on December 12, the exchange rate is testing the 0.6350 level, trying to gain a foothold higher, while traders expect new factors that can affect the dynamics. Meanwhile, the sale of shares of leading Australian banks has stopped after eight sessions of decline caused by the first decrease in interest rates since November 2020 and an increase in overdue debt. In particular, the capitalization of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia has decreased by about 25 billion Australian dollars during this time. The key event for the market will be the publication of January inflation data in Australia, which is scheduled for tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the annual consumer price index may rise from 2.5% to 2.6%, which may support the national currency. Investors' attention will also be focused on statistics on completed construction: the indicator for the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to slow down from 1.6% to 1.0%.The final report on US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be released on the US market on Thursday at 15:30 (GMT+2), and experts do not predict a revision of the value from 2.3%. On the same day, data on applications for unemployment benefits and January orders for durable goods are expected to be published, which may grow by 2.5% after a December decline of -2.2%. On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will assess the key inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve — the price index of personal consumption expenditures. Analysts expect a slowdown in the base indicator from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year, while monthly growth may accelerate from 0.2% to 0.3%. The overall index is also expected to reach 2.5%, adding 0.3% over the month.Resistance levels: 0.6373, 0.6408, 0.6450, 0.6478.Support levels: 0.6330, 0.6300, 0.6274, 0.6250.Gold market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, gold is showing a decline, rolling back from historical highs recorded the day before and testing support at 2935.75. Pressure on gold is exerted by a decrease in geopolitical tensions associated with the likely progress of peace talks on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The weakening demand for protective assets contributes to the reorientation of investors to riskier instruments, which further limits the metal's growth potential.Market participants' attention is also focused on the latest economic data from the United States. According to the S&P Global report, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector rose from 51.2 to 51.6 points in February, exceeding the projected 51.5 points, while the services sector saw a sharp decline from 52.9 to 49.7 points, which turned out to be worse than the expected 53.0 points. Additional pressure on the dollar was exerted by a decrease in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in January from 67.8 to 64.7 points, despite neutral forecasts. Also, data on the Chicago Federal Reserve's national activity index was released yesterday, which fell from 0.18 to -0.03 points in January, reflecting a weakening in economic activity. The December housing price index from S&P/Case-Shiller will be published today at 16:00 (GMT+2), and at 17:00 (GMT+2) and 17:30 (GMT+2), markets expect the publication of business activity indices in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. which can set the further direction of the dollar's movement and, accordingly, affect the dynamics of gold.Resistance levels: 2956.19, 2980.00, 3000.00, 3025.00.Support levels: 2920.00, 2900.00, 2875.00, 2858.06.Crude Oil market analysisThe price of Brent crude oil remains under pressure, correcting in a downward movement and trading just below the 75.00 mark. The market is influenced by two factors at once: the trade policy of US President Donald Trump, which implies possible changes in import duties, as well as the prospects for an increase in oil supplies from Iraq. These circumstances increase uncertainty and create negative expectations among investors.Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdel Ghani announced that the transportation of raw materials from Kurdistan to Turkey will resume next week. The cost of the supplied oil will be $ 16.0 per barrel, and the state-owned SOMO company will handle its sale. According to preliminary estimates, the volume of supplies in the first months will range from 300.0 to 500.0 thousand barrels per day, which may increase pressure on the market.Additional attention of traders is focused on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on fuel reserves, which will be released today at 23:30 (GMT+2). Experts predict that after the previous increase of 3.339 million barrels, the figure will change slightly. Tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT+2), data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be published, and if they confirm the positive dynamics of last week, when stocks increased by 4,633 million barrels, this may strengthen the current trend in the market.Resistance levels: 75.30, 78.00.Support levels: 73.70, 70.70.

EUR/USD: the market is waiting for the results of the Bundestag electionsThe weakening of the dollar contributes to the strengthening of the euro, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, trading around 1.0518. The European currency was supported by news about the victory of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) in the Bundestag elections, where they received 28.6% of the vote. The second place was taken by the Alternative for Germany with a score of 20.8%, while the party of the current Chancellor Olaf Scholz scored only 16.4%. The outcome of the vote could lead to significant changes in the economic and political spheres, including possible fiscal reform promoted by the CDU/CSU. In addition, the election results will have an impact on the EU's position on the policy of US President Donald Trump, in particular on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and security in Europe.The macroeconomic data, which is expected to be published today at 11:00 (GMT+2), may have an additional impact on the pair's exchange rate. According to forecasts, the consumer price index in January will decrease by -0.3% after rising by 0.4% a month earlier, which in annual terms may accelerate inflation to 2.5% from the previous 2.4%. The base rate is likely to remain at 2.7%, which exceeds the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2.0%, but is not yet sufficient to review the monetary policy easing strategy.Resistance levels: 1.0550, 1.0710.Support levels: 1.0470, 1.0290.USD/CHF: Swiss Labor Market report in focusIn the morning trading, the USD/CHF pair shows a moderate decline, updating the lows of February 23 and testing support around 0.8960. Market activity remains subdued, as participants expect new factors to appear that can set the direction of movement.On Monday at 09:30 (GMT+2), data on employment changes for the fourth quarter will be released in Switzerland, where the indicator previously increased from 5.499 million to 5.528 million, continuing the upward trend. On Thursday at 10:00 (GMT+2), investors will receive updated statistics on the country's GDP, and forecasts indicate a slowdown in growth from 2.0% to 1.6% in annual terms and from 0.4% to 0.3% in quarterly terms, which may weaken the franc's position. At 12:00 (GMT+2), the market's attention will switch to eurozone inflation indicators: the consumer price index is expected to be 2.5%, and core inflation is expected to be 2.7%. Meanwhile, Swiss gold exports to the United States increased sharply in January, partially offsetting lower shipments to China and India. The volume of shipments increased from 64.2 to 192.9 tons, which is the highest figure since 2012.The US currency is reacting to the latest S&P Global business activity data. The manufacturing sector index increased from 51.2 to 51.6 points in February, exceeding expectations of 51.5 points, while the same indicator in the service sector fell from 52.9 to 49.7 points, which was lower than the projected 53.0 points. For the first time since February 2023, the value fell below the key mark of 50.0 points, which may indicate the negative consequences of the Fed's long-term high-interest rate policy. However, market participants are still in no hurry to adjust expectations for monetary policy easing, sticking to the forecast of two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in the second half of the year.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8952, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.GBP/USD: the pair gained a foothold in the target area of 1.2687–1.2659Due to the strong economic performance of the UK, the GBP/USD pair has confidently gained a foothold above the resistance of 1.2525, which indicates the continuation of an upward correction with the potential for growth to 1.2785.Employment statistics for the last three months showed an increase of 107.0 thousand, which is significantly higher than the previous value of 35.0 thousand. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, which was better than expected at 4.5%. Inflation also exceeded forecasts: the consumer price index in January reached 3.0% in annual terms against the expected 2.8% and the previous 2.5%, and on a monthly basis the decrease was -0.1% instead of the expected -0.3%. An acceleration in price growth may force the Bank of England to suspend monetary policy easing, which supports the pound. In addition, a stable labor market suggests that the interest rate will remain high for longer than previously predicted.Resistance levels: 1.2785, 1.3023.Support levels: 1.2525, 1.2300.USD/CAD: Bank of Canada warns about risks to the economyThe US dollar is showing a moderate decline in the USD/CAD pair in morning trading, correcting after a sharp rise on Friday. Quotes are testing support around 1.4190, while market participants are assessing the latest macroeconomic data on business activity and waiting for new factors that can set the direction of movement.Last week, Canada released December retail sales figures, which showed solid growth. On a monthly basis, volumes increased by 2.5% after a modest 0.2% increase in November, exceeding analysts' expectations of 1.6%. Excluding car sales, the figure also beat forecasts, rising 2.7% after a 0.7% decline, while only 1.8% was expected. On Friday, February 28, investors' attention will switch to the publication of GDP data for December and the fourth quarter: growth of 0.3% in monthly terms is forecast after a decrease of 0.2% earlier, as well as quarterly dynamics of 0.3% and annual growth of 1.0%.The head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, noted that the regulator has limited opportunities to neutralize the effects of the US administration's trade measures, unlike the period of fighting inflation after the pandemic. According to him, the Canadian economy is unlikely to recover as rapidly as after the crisis of 2020-2022: growth is possible, but production will remain below previous levels. On February 10, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports from March 12, including shipments from Canada. In addition, a drop in export earnings due to the sanctions policy may hit consumption levels, while retaliatory tariffs will only increase inflationary risks in the United States.Resistance levels: 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350, 1.4400.Support levels: 1.4200, 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050.

EUR/USD: week closes with mixed movementsIn Asian trading, the euro showed uncertainty: at the beginning of the week, it was under pressure, which led to an update of the February 13 lows at 1.0400 for the EUR/USD pair. Nevertheless, yesterday the European currency regained a significant part of its losses, approaching the 1.0500 mark, near which trading ended. Currently, the market's attention is focused on statements by representatives of financial departments trying to give the market signals about their future decisions in the field of monetary policy. For example, Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB governing council, said that the regulator should not interfere with lowering rates, since January inflation at 2.5% is still moving towards the 2.0% target planned for this year. However, other officials have expressed concerns about a possible acceleration in price increases due to rising energy prices and harsh tariff measures from Republicans in the White House, while others are concerned that the weakness of the eurozone economy could slow down inflation below the desired level.The position of the US dollar weakened yesterday under the influence of the publication of new economic data confirming that it is premature to talk about the end of the crisis. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the week to February 14 increased from 214 thousand to 219 thousand, with expectations of 215 thousand, and repeated applications on February 7 increased from 1.845 million to 1.869 million, although the forecast was 1.87 million. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's industrial business climate index also disappointed the market, falling from 44.3 to 18.1 points. Data on the construction of new homes in the United States turned out to be no less alarming: after an increase of 16.1% in December, the number of bookmarks in January decreased by 9.8%, reaching only 1,366 million instead of the projected 1,400 million. In addition, the focus was on the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, published on Wednesday, where the authorities indicated concern about a possible acceleration of inflation, which many interpreted as a signal of a slowdown in monetary policy easing. Nevertheless, the initial plan for 2025 remains in place, which assumes only two rate cuts of 25 basis points in the second half of the year.Resistance levels: 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0654, 1.0700.Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0342.USD/CHF: employment data gives NBS reason to continue easingIn Asian trading, the USD/CHF pair continues its corrective movement, trading near the 0.8978 level and demonstrating the potential for further decline amid favorable economic reports on the employment and real estate markets in Switzerland.Data released the day before showed that employment in the fourth quarter amounted to 5.387 million people, an increase of 0.6% compared to last year. At the same time, the number of working men increased by 0.4%, women — by 0.8%, and the total number of employees increased by 0.3%. Despite the increase in the share of unemployed to 4.4% from 4.0% a year earlier, the overall unemployment rate remained at the same level (2.7%). This gives the Swiss National Bank additional reasons to maintain a soft monetary policy at the next meeting.The improvement in the state of the economy is also confirmed by a significant reduction in the budget deficit to 80.0 million francs, although a deficit of 2.645 billion francs was previously expected. This result indicates the successful repayment of debts incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was made possible by reducing emergency expenses, in particular, postponing payments of state aid to Swiss Railways (SBB), as well as by increasing tax revenues, which exceeded the forecast by 1.2 billion francs.Support levels: 0.8960, 0.8820.Resistance levels: 0.9040, 0.91 70.AUD/USD: employment in Australia remains resilient to RBA measuresThe AUD/USD pair is trading with a correction near the 0.6396 mark, taking advantage of the weak dynamics of the US currency, due to which the Australian dollar retains short-term growth potential.Recent economic statistics confirm experts' expectations that the easing of the monetary policy of the Australian regulator is unlikely to last long. Despite a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.0% to 4.1% and an increase in the total number of unemployed by 500 people to 615.1 thousand in January, total employment improved by 33,700 jobs, amounting to 14.616 million, which is 0.2% more than in December. The ratio of working citizens to the total population also increased from 64.4% to 64.6%, while the number of full-time employees increased by 19.9 thousand, reaching 10.083 million people. Thus, the employment market in Australia demonstrates significant resilience to the measures of the Reserve Bank of the country.Support levels: 0.6340, 0.6190.Resistance levels: 0.6430, 0.6560.NZD/USD: New Zealand reported a deficit of NZD 486.0 million for the monthThe NZD/USD pair has been gradually strengthening since the beginning of the month, trying to stay above the 0.5737 level (Murray's mark [6/8]). During the current week, the movement was multidirectional: initially, there was a decrease after the announcement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy decisions, but soon the currency was able to recover and return to previous positions.The regulator decided to reduce the key interest rate by 50 basis points, lowering it to 3.75%, and confirmed its intention to continue its soft policy to stimulate economic growth and consumer demand. However, according to the head of the RBNZ, Adrian Orr, negative scenarios are possible due to the trade initiatives of the US republican administration. He added that the rate could be lowered to about 3.0% by the end of the year, suggesting at least two more steps down in the near future. At the same time, the positions of the US Federal Reserve do not allow investors to make confident forecasts: the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed that the US regulator plans to slow down the pace of monetary policy easing until inflation shows a convincing decline to the target 2.0%, and the details of the US trade strategy are not clear.Resistance levels: 0.5859, 0.5981.Support levels: 0.5615, 0.5493, 0.5432.

EUR/USD: pressure on the euro has increased due to the negotiations between Russia and the United StatesThe EUR/USD pair shows mixed fluctuations during the Asian session, holding near the level of 1.0450. Market activity remains weak as investors wait for new factors to appear that could affect the exchange rate. The attention of bidders remains focused on the situation surrounding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as well as the potential consequences of the first negotiations between the United States and Russia, which recently concluded in Saudi Arabia. Analysts evaluate their results cautiously, noting that, despite hopes for a softening of the confrontation, there remain risks of marginalizing the role of the European Union in this process, which may exacerbate political instability, especially in France and Germany.Macroeconomic statistics for the eurozone, published the day before, gave mixed signals, but reports from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) made a small positive. In Germany, the business confidence index rose from 10.3 to 26.0 points in February, exceeding the forecast of 15.5 points, and the assessment of current economic conditions rose from -90.4 to -88.5 points against the expected -90.0 points. In the eurozone as a whole, economic sentiment improved from 18.0 to 24.2 points, although preliminary estimates suggested 24.3 points. According to a Bloomberg survey, most analysts believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut the interest rate below 2.00% by early 2026, despite previously expected three consecutive cuts of 25 basis points in 2025, from the current 2.75% to 2.00%. Experts note that the neutral level of the key rate, at which it does not have a restraining or stimulating effect on the economy, is estimated in the range of 1.75–2.25%. At the same time, any further steps taken by the regulator will depend on a detailed analysis of the macroeconomic situation and key indicators.Resistance levels: 1.0467, 1.0513, 1.0554, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0434, 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300.GBP/USD: annual inflation in the UK rose to 3.0%Against the background of the stability of the British currency, the GBP/USD pair failed to develop an upward movement and remains near the 1.2617 mark during the Asian session.In January, the dynamics of inflation in the UK showed mixed results: the consumer price index decreased from 0.3% to -0.1% on a monthly basis, while in annual terms the indicator increased from 2.5% to 3.0%. The achieved value significantly exceeds the Bank of England's target limit of 2.0%, which may complicate plans to ease monetary policy. Core inflation, excluding the impact of food and energy prices, accelerated from 3.2% to 3.7% year-on-year. Taking into account the neutral employment report, where the unemployment rate remained at 4.4%, experts predict that at the March 20 meeting, the British regulator will keep the key rate at 4.50%.Resistance levels: 1.2680, 1.2890.Support levels: 1.2570, 1.2330.USD/JPY: the pair went down, breaking through the support of 153.23–152.69The USD/JPY pair rose to the level of 151.70 after the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Japan at the beginning of the week.According to the results of the fourth quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.8% year-on-year, which significantly exceeded the projected 1.0%. The previously published value was revised upward from 1.2% to 1.7%. On a quarterly basis, the indicator increased to 0.7%, while preliminary expectations were 0.3%, and adjusted data for the previous period changed from 0.3% to 0.4%. Against this background, the USD/JPY pair sank to the support level of 151.30. At the same time, exports accelerated from 2.8% to 7.2% in January, but fell short of the projected 7.9%, while imports increased from 1.7% to 16.7%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 9.7%. This led to an increase in the trade deficit to -2758.8 billion yen from 132.5 billion previously, while forecasts suggested a decrease to only -2100.0 billion yen. On Friday at 01:30 (GMT+2), the publication of inflation data for January is scheduled, where the annual consumer price index may reach 3.7%, and the base indicator is 3.1%. The expected values can strengthen the yen exchange rate, as they will create additional conditions for further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan.Resistance levels: 156.47, 158.88.Support levels: 151.30, 149.57, 144.90.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair is showing a slight decline near the 2935.35 mark, remaining in the area of historical highs recorded at the beginning of last week. A day earlier, gold was steadily rising in price, helped by an increase in interest in protective assets amid expectations of monetary policy easing by the world's largest regulators. This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced a review of lending conditions, with the latter immediately reducing its key rate by 50 basis points, as predicted.Investors are closely monitoring the development of diplomatic processes aimed at resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as serious geopolitical risks remain along with hopes for its completion. In particular, there is a possibility that the White House may impose additional duties on European imports due to the divergence of positions between the EU and the United States on the terms of the end of hostilities. The rapid resolution of individual issues can, in turn, lead to new crises, especially in politically tense countries such as Germany and France.Resistance levels: 2942.65, 2965.00, 2980.00, 3000.00.Support levels: 2920.00, 2900.00, 2875.00, 2858.06.

EUR/USD: EU assesses risks from new US trade tariffsThe EUR/USD pair maintains a corrective trend near the 1.0456 mark, awaiting the release of fresh macroeconomic data, while the fundamental background remains neutral.The administration of Donald Trump postponed the introduction of tariffs on European imports until April, which, according to analysts, will not have a serious impact on the EU economy: steel and aluminum supplies from the region account for only 2.0% of the total, and the value of American exports already exceeds European, even without new duties. ECB board member Fabio Panetta believes that the US tariff policy will not lead to an increase in inflation in the eurozone, but its possible slowdown below the target level of 2.0% requires special attention from the regulator. At the same time, the head of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, warns that the German economy may be the most vulnerable to trade restrictions from the White House.Against the backdrop of the US Presidential Day celebrations, the dollar showed low volatility, and the Fed's monetary policy remains a key factor for the market. On Wednesday, the minutes of the January meeting of the regulator will be published, where investors hope to find hints on the timing of a possible interest rate cut. Meanwhile, inflation in the United States is showing the fastest growth rates in the last 18 months, and according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of maintaining the rate in March is estimated at 97.5%, which contributes to the stability of the dollar.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0680.Support levels: 1.0420, 1.0280.GBP/USD: the head of the Bank of England announced the stagnation of the country's economyThe pound is correcting downwards in the GBP/USD pair during morning trading, playing back the growth of the previous day, when quotes updated the maximum since December 19. The instrument is testing the 1.2600 level for a breakdown, while investors are waiting for fresh data on the British labor market. According to forecasts, the average wage in December may accelerate from 5.6% to 5.9%, unemployment will increase from 4.4% to 4.5%, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits from 0.7 thousand to 10.0 thousand.Market participants' attention is also focused on the upcoming speech by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, at 11:30 (GMT+2), where he may announce possible steps by the regulator regarding the interest rate. Earlier, the official described the country's economic growth rate as "static", despite unexpectedly strong data for the fourth quarter of 2024.: GDP increased by 0.1% instead of the expected decline, and year-on-year growth was 1.4% against the projected 1.1%. However, the Bank of England revised its GDP expectations for 2025 from 1.0% to 0.75%, and during its last meeting on February 6, it lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, expecting inflation to rise to 3.7% in the third quarter.Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), January UK inflation data will be released on the market: analysts expect an increase in the annual consumer price index from 2.5% to 2.8%, while a correction of -0.3% is possible in monthly terms. The base index is expected to accelerate from 3.2% to 3.6%. Retail sales reports will be released on Friday at 09:00 (GMT+2), and February business activity statistics from S&P Global will be released at 11:30 (GMT+2). The index in industry is expected to rise to 48.5 points from 48.3 points, and in the service sector to 51.0 points from 50.9 points. Expectations for similar American indicators suggest a continuation of the level of 51.2 points in the manufacturing sector and an increase in the services index from 52.9 points to 53.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2730, 1.2776.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.USD/CHF: quarterly growth of Swiss GDP was 0.4%The USD/CHF pair continues to develop upward dynamics, having tested the 0.9030 level for an upward breakout during morning trading. Markets remain waiting for new drivers, as the American stock exchanges were closed the day before due to the celebration of Presidential Day. Investors are analyzing Friday's reports: retail sales in the United States in January decreased by 0.9% month-on-month against a forecast of 0.1%, and annual growth slowed from 4.4% to 4.2%, while industrial production fell to 0.5% against forecasts of 0.3%.In Switzerland, the producer and import price index decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in January, but showed an increase of 0.1% over the month. Today, market participants' attention is focused on industrial production data for the fourth quarter, where the indicator is expected to remain at 3.5%. Additional support for the franc was provided by information on the growth of Swiss GDP by 0.4% in the fourth quarter, which confirms the stability of the national economy, despite the slowdown in annual growth to 0.8% from 1.2% in 2023. The final estimate of the indicator will be presented on February 27.Resistance levels: 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100, 0.9130.Support levels: 0.9000, 0.8964, 0.8929, 0.8900.NZD/USD: experts expect RBNZ rate cut to 3.75%During the Asian trading session, the New Zealand dollar is significantly losing ground, falling to the area of 0.5705. This movement reflects a correction after the recent sharp rise, when the NZD/USD pair updated the maximum values recorded on December 18.At the same time, large-scale emigration is observed in New Zealand: the total number of citizens who left the country, including those who returned, reached 47.0 thousand, whereas a year earlier this figure was 43.3 thousand. According to Fortune, the vast majority of expats chose to move to Australia, hoping for broader career prospects abroad. With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand having already lowered its key interest rate by a total of 125 basis points since August last year, the regulator has yet to step up measures to support the economy, which is under pressure due to rising unemployment and the effects of the recession. According to a survey of economists conducted by Reuters, at the next meeting, the agency is likely to reduce the indicator by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.75%. Moreover, analysts predict an additional rate cut of 75 basis points over the course of the year. Investors are also expressing concern about a possible increase in the tariff policy of the Donald Trump administration, which could hit New Zealand's export-oriented sector. Earlier, the American president announced 25 percent duties on aluminum and steel imports, as well as counter-sanctions against countries that restrict access to American goods on their markets.Resistance levels: 0.5723, 0.5750, 0.5775, 0.5800.Support levels: 0.5700, 0.5672, 0.5650, 0.5633.

AUD/USD: forecasts point to RBA policy easingThe Australian dollar continues to strengthen in the AUD/USD pair, updating the local highs of mid-December 2024 and developing a short-term upward momentum. During the Asian session, the instrument is testing the 0.6370 level, receiving support from both technical factors and expectations of a potential peaceful settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which could have a positive impact on global markets and energy prices.Reports from Australia's largest financial institutions provide an additional positive background. For example, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported a 2.0% increase in half-year profit to $5.13 billion, exceeding analysts' forecasts. In addition, dividend payments per share increased by 5.0%, and the bank's quotes reached a historic peak, which supported the ASX 200 index.Investors' attention remains focused on labor market data, which will be published on Thursday: experts expect employment growth to slow from 56.3 thousand to 20.0 thousand, and unemployment may rise to 4.1%. Also on Wednesday, statistics on wage dynamics for the fourth quarter will be released, where an annual decline from 3.5% to 3.2% is forecast.Resistance levels: 0.6373, 0.6420, 0.6455, 0.6478.Support levels: 0.6330, 0.6300, 0.6274, 0.6250.NZD/USD: medium-term dynamics shifted in favor of the bullsThe NZD/USD pair is trading above 0.5738, breaking the resistance level of 0.5691, which may signal a change in the long-term trend.Positive macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand contributed to the growth of quotations. Business inflation expectations in the first quarter were 2.06%, exceeding the forecast of 1.80%, and the food price index rose to 2.3% year-on-year, which increases the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep the rate at 4.25% on February 19. At the same time, investors expect a decrease to 3.75%, which may increase pressure on the national currency exchange rate. At the same time, business activity in January showed steady growth: the index in the manufacturing sector rose to 51.4 points from 45.9, and in the service sector – to 50.4 points.Last week, the US dollar weakened by 1.57% in USDX as investors shifted their focus to risky assets amid geopolitical stabilization. Peace talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine are expected to take place in Saudi Arabia in the spring. The decrease in tensions in the Gaza Strip is also contributing to a decrease in interest in the dollar as a safe haven asset. If the global situation continues to normalize, it will strengthen the growth of the NZD/USD.Resistance levels: 0.5795, 0.5928.Support levels: 0.5690, 0.5600.USD/CAD: bearish momentum is gaining strengthThe USD/CAD pair remains under pressure during the morning session, developing the downward trend established last week. Quotes are testing the 1.4170 level for a downward breakdown, updating the minimum values since mid-December.The market continues to react to the 25.0% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on steel and aluminum imports, of which Canada is the main supplier. Additional pressure on the economy is exerted by the recently signed memorandum on mutual trade restrictions, which increases investor concerns. Conservative Party leader Pierre Pouillevre expressed concern about the current state of the country's economy at a rally on February 15, stressing that after the pandemic stagnation, Canada is facing new challenges that threaten business and income levels.Traders' attention is focused on the upcoming Canadian inflation report, which will be published on Tuesday at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts predict that the consumer price index on a monthly basis will remain unchanged after a decrease of 0.4% earlier, and the base indicator will be fixed at the levels of -0.3% for the month and 1.8% in annual terms.Resistance levels: 1.4200, 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350.Support levels: 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050, 1.4000.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices remain under pressure, showing a moderate decline in morning trading. Quotes are testing the level of 70.70 for a downward breakdown, holding near the lows of December 30, updated earlier. Traders are being cautious, waiting for new factors to appear that could affect the direction of market movement.The main pressure on oil prices is exerted by uncertainty in the trade policy of US President Donald Trump. Earlier, the White House imposed 25.0% tariffs on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, and also imposed similar duties on imports of steel and aluminum from all countries. Chinese products are taxed at 10.0%. Additionally, the possibility of a significant reduction in Iranian oil exports and the introduction of new restrictions on supplies from Russia is being considered, which may be related to the process of peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.The corrective dynamics continues in the market. According to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions on WTI Crude Oil decreased from 230.3 thousand to 220.0 thousand last week. There is a decrease in the activity of sellers: the balance of producers amounted to 446,121 thousand for the bulls against 382,201 thousand for the bears. During the week, buyers reduced their positions by 3,091 thousand contracts, and sellers – by 12,058 thousand, which indicates a weakening of selling pressure, but does not exclude further volatility.Resistance levels: 71.00, 71.62, 72.15, 73.00.Support levels: 70.00, 69.00, 68.30, 67.00.