NZDUSD: the "bears" are increasing the dynamics in the pair
NZDUSD is falling actively, developing the activity of the "bears", who took the initiative since Tuesday, February 14, when they renewed the local maximum of February 3. The pair is quoted around 0.6220, below which the "New Zealander" was on January 6.
Negative dynamics was possible due to the publication of the macroeconomic data in the USA. Thus, the market participants estimated the statistics of retail sales at the end of January, which had grown by 3,0%, having earlier decreased by 1,1% in December, while the analysts expected 1,8%. The publication the day before added to the uncertainty about the further steps of the US Federal Reserve in favor of ending the cycle of tightening of monetary policy. In particular the January PPI data showed a 0.7% gain versus a 0.2% decline against market expectations of a 0.4% increase, and the annual rate of manufacturing inflation slowed to 6.0% from 6.5% while a decline to 5.4% was expected.
- Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6288, 0.6350 and 0.6400.
- Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100, 0.6050.
USDTRY: Turkey has experienced unprecedented losses
The USDTRY traded up moderately, near 18.8550 and is developing an uptrend. Earlier on Wednesday, the Turkish lira showed sharp declines after the capital's stock market resumed its forced one-week break amid the worst earthquake in Syria and Turkey since 1939.
According to Bloomberg, the Confederation of Businesses and Entrepreneurs released a report on the economic losses caused by the natural disaster in the southeast region, which economists estimate will bravely surpass the $84.0 billion mark. Thus, residential real estate suffered $70.8 billion in damage, a $2.9 billion shortfall in workers, and budget fillers will lose $10.4 billion. Destruction of power grids, medical and educational institutions could provoke an increase in the budget deficit this year to 5.4% of GDP, from the previous figure of 3.5%. Meanwhile, the emergency regime was approved by the authorities in 10 Turkish provinces for a period of three months, intensifying the negative factors in the economy. According to the latest statistics, Turkey has lost more than 35.0 thousand people and the number of injured exceeded 100.0 thousand due to the natural disaster.
- Resistance levels: 18.8818, 18.9128, 18.9500, 19.0000.
- Support levels: 18.8500, 18.8281, 18.8000, 18.7500.
EURGBP: the pair is around the 0.8900 level.
During this morning session EURGBP shows an uptrend since Wednesday and trades resistance at the psychological mark of 0.8900.
Market participants are studying the statistics on consumer prices, which was published this week. Thus, January value decreased by 0.6% from the previous estimate of -0.4%, while the annual rate slowed down to 10.1% from 10.5% beating the preliminary forecast of 10.3%. The downward trend has continued for the third month in a row, but analysts still point to high real estate, energy and food costs, which continue to act as negative factors for households. Meanwhile, according to the U.K. National Data Office, the restaurant, hotel and transportation industries have lowered costs, giving economists hope for an interest rate adjustment to 0.25% from the Bank of England at the next working group meeting, which is less than the 0.50% previously projected.
- Resistance levels: 0.8900, 0.8938, 0.8977, 0.9000.
- Support levels: 0.8864, 0.8817, 0.8777, 0.8750.
USDCAD: Global triangle pattern observed in the pair
The weak macro statistics of Canada has become the growth driver for the USDCAD pair, which is testing the level of 1.3487 at the moment of writing.
In particular, the manufacturing sector sales for December were down 1.5%, previously down 0.2% in November, while the wholesale goods figure was down 0.8% from the previous -0.7%, which shows negative dynamics for the second month in a row. New macroeconomic data are scheduled for release today, February 17. Experts forecast a 0.1% correction in the value of industrial goods in January, while commodities may reduce the index by 0.2% developing negative dynamics for the tenth month in a row.
- Resistance levels: 1.3530 and 1.3670.
- Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3260.