AUDUSD: Rhetoric of Australian regulator may hit mortgages
AUDUSD is developing an uptrend in an attempt to recover the losses of the previous week. The pair reached the level of 0.6890, continuing gains as technical factors provided the impetus. The U.S. dollar continues to be popular among investors, who expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish rhetoric in the short term, continuing to raise the interest rate. All the more, trading floors are intensifying fears of increased military escalation in Russia's war against Ukraine, which is building up a negative impact on Europe's economy.
Meanwhile, analysts estimate that the continuation of the rhetoric of "hawks" in the financial department of the further correction to the ten-year high of 3.35% may lead the country to the beginning of a full-scale mortgage crisis due to the end of the term of about 800.0 thousand loans, which were opened at a record low fixed rate during the global pandemic Covid-19. Based on the new economic realities, lending will become very expensive, and according to experts representing the consulting firm KPMG Australia, the average $600.0k Australian fixed-rate mortgage homeowners will see interest rates increase by A$16,500k annually. The negative household factor will affect consumer activity, so the Reserve Bank of Australia expects a more active decline in economic dynamics from previous forecasts, some economists allow the recession in the national economy.
- Resistance levels: 0.6900, 0.6950, 0.7000 and 0.7050.
- Support levels: 0.6850, 0.6800, 0.6750 and 0.6700.
USDCHF: The pair expects new stimulus
During the morning trading the currency pair USDCHF reflects a mixed trend, being in the area of 0.9240.
Swiss currency gets support from the national statistics released on Friday according to which industrial production rose 6.1% in Q4 last year to 6.0% in the previous reporting period. The government announced support for the price limit for oil products from the Russian Federation, previously approved by the G7 countries and the European alliance. Thus, Ministry of Economics officials noted that, for example, heating oil from Russia or Russian production in trade, intermediation or transportation will only be allowed at a price no higher than 45.0 dollars per barrel, and gasoline, oil and diesel fuel at a price cap of 100.0 U.S. dollars.
- Resistance levels: 0.9300, 0.9350, 0.9400, 0.9450.
- Support levels: 0.9250, 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100.
Gold prices
The precious metal is quoted slightly higher as part of the development of the February 17 bullish signal. The end of previous week was mainly bearish for the market, but Friday's trading session, despite the renewal of the local low of December 30, the asset successfully reversed the trend and sealed its success on a positive note. Meanwhile, negative factors continue to weigh on gold's position amid the hawkish rhetoric at the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is holding up the vector of upward interest rate correction.
Moreover, all regulators from developing countries are promoting policy of further increase in the cost of borrowing, as a final victory over inflationary risks was not gained. Thus, the release of the Canadian statistics on the dynamics of consumer prices is scheduled for tomorrow; preliminary estimates allow for the adjustment of the basic index for January, except for the prices of food products and energy to 5.5% from 5.4% for the year, and 0.2% for the month, which earlier decreased by 0.3% for December. While experts expect the consumer prices index to lose 5.7% from 6.3%, economists expect monetary policy announcements from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday, February 22 where the interest rate may strengthen by 0.50% to reach the 4.75% target.
- Resistance levels: 1850.27, 1869.49, 1886.46, 1900.00.
- Support levels: 1828.22, 1816.62, 1800.00, 1786.28.
Crude Oil analysis
Brent benchmark oil is quoted at 83.00.
The global market of raw materials continues to show stability despite multidirectional fundamental factors. The global crude oil market continues to show stability despite divergent fundamentals, as Russian oil is rapidly exploring new markets amid EU and G7 economic restrictions, while official New Delhi reported record purchases of "black gold", as total imports surpassed the record of 5. 0 million barrels per day, with Russia in second place selling a record 1.4 million barrels per day, surpassing the 9.2% show for December, amid a decline in India's share of energy from Middle Eastern nations in total imports to 48.0%, versus more than 80.0% in early 2022.
- Resistance levels: 85.60 and 91.00.
- Support levels: 80.00, 75.50.