EURUSD: the euro is moderately advancing
The EURUSD trading instrument traded slightly higher during the morning session, reaching the resistance level of 1.0900. The pair still has a moderate positive trend from the 19th of January, but the potential for "bullish" stimulus is reduced, because market participants expect a new positive for the pair.
A day earlier the statistics on business confidence in the Eurozone was released by S&P Global in January. Thus, the manufacturing sector strengthened to 48.8 points from 47.8, beating the experts' expectations of 48.5 points. The service sector increased to 50.7 points from 49.8, with the market estimate of 50.2 points. The manufacturing sector in the composite index for January increased to 50.2 points from the previous 49.3 points, with the preliminary expectation of 49.8 points. In addition the February consumer sentiment index data from Gfk Group came in, reflecting the slowdown to -33.9 points from -37.5 points with market estimates of -33.0. Overall, confirming consumer sentiment due to the energy market situation, but demand for energy resources continues to remain low on the part of private consumers.
- Resistance levels: 1.0925, 1.0957, 1.1000, 1.1051.
- Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0759, 1.0700.
USDCHF: The US dollar has taken a wait-and-see attitude
In the trading session of the APAC countries the currency pair USDCHF is gradually strengthening positions during the unstable uptrend since Friday.
Earlier the U.S. dollar was supported by a block of A block of macroeconomic data from the U.S., reflecting business activity from S & P Global in January. Thus, the PMI (business activity index) of the services sector increased to 46.6 points from 44.7 points with a negative estimate of 44.5 points, the manufacturing sector increased to 46.8 points from 46.2 points, beating expectations of 46.1 points with a composite value of 46.6 points from 45.0 points, beating analysts' forecast of a decline to 44.7 points. Meanwhile the manufacturing activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond showed a sharp decline to -11.0 points from 1.0, disappointing analysts expectations for a negative trend of -4.0 points.
- Resistance levels: 0.9250, 0.9300, 0.9350 and 0.9400.
- Support levels: 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9036.
USDCAD: The instrument is waiting for the decisions of the Canadian Central Bank
At the end of the previous week the currency pair USDCAD decreased to the level of 1.3360, remaining in the marked area.
Market participants continue to keep low activity, wanting to wait for the release of the final minutes of the meeting of the Canadian regulator on the further adjustment of the interest rate, announced for today. According to preliminary estimates, taking into account the weakening of price pressures, namely a decrease in consumer inflation in December to 6.3%, the HEA of Canada will lower the step of strengthening the interest rate to 0.25%, bringing the target value to 4.50%, which will update the record of the last 15 years. The outcome statements from regulators are particularly interesting for market participants as the market is waiting for hints that the central bank will pause the cycle of monetary tightening to cumulatively review earlier measures. With such an outcome the Canadian dollar will inevitably find itself under the influence of negative factors.
- Resistance levels: 1.3455, 1.3550, 1.3671.
- Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3183, 1.3060.
Oil market analysis
The price of WTI crude oil reflects mixed trading, testing the 80.50 mark. Earlier the asset showed a slight decline, leaving its December 5 highs, reacting to the strengthening U.S. dollar, which received stimulus amid macroeconomic data on business confidence in January.
Meanwhile, the attractiveness of "black gold" is still high, because bidders predict an increase in demand from the PRC due to the relaxation of restrictive measures against Covid-19 from December, stimulating the recovery of industrial and business activity in China. However, experts predict a decrease in the level of supply of hydrocarbons in the markets already by early spring, as in the Eurozone are announced expansion of restrictions on Russian oil supplies. The analysts assume that in the nearest future the EU will revise the limit price for Russian oil products and the sanctions will also affect the refined fuel.
- Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 82.62 and 83.50.
- Support levels: 79.81, 78.74, 78.00, 77.00.