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Forex analytical forecast for today, January 3, for AUDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD & Crude oil

AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 3, for AUDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD & Crude oil

AUDUSD: the asset has renewed its local peak

The Australian currency is rapidly strengthening positions in the development of "bullish" dynamics within the trading session in Asia. At the moment trading instrument AUDUSD is near the level of 0.6830, updating the local maximum of December 15.

Notable support for the pair was the Australian macroeconomic data unit according to which the manufacturing PMI (business activity index) released by S&P Global and Commonwealth Bank of Australia for December strengthened to 56.9 points against 50.4 points earlier, against the neutral forecast of experts of 50.4 points. Consumer sentiment was supported by the December statistics from the PRC, where business activity in the manufacturing sector from Caixin decreased to 49.0 points from 49.4 points while market participants estimated the level at 48.8 points.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6850, 0.6900, 0.6950 and 0.7000.
  • Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6628.

USDJPY: the pair updated its local low for June 2020

Us Dollar is correcting against the Japanese yen, in the background of which the pair USD/JPY is testing the area of 129.50 as part of the development of the downward dynamics, formed from December 29.

First of all the "bears" strengthened due to the expectations of the market participants regarding the future of the monetary policy of the US FRS officials. As of today the economists suppose the continuation of the downward correction of the key indicator till the end of 2023, being guided by the economic situation. Recall that the correction by the U.S. regulator, which began in March, corrected the index by 425.0 basis points, and only in the December meeting the rate slowed down. Thanks to such manipulation, the U.S. dollar strengthened its position significantly, gaining about 8.0%, which was the best dynamic since 2015.

  • Resistance levels: 130.00, 131.00, 132.00, 133.00.
  • Support levels: 129.00, 128.00, 127.00, 126.00.

USDCAD: upward movement has a high perspective

The trading instrument USDCAD is holding above the level of 1.3550, intending to consolidate its positions.

The Canadian currency is under bearish influence amid a downward correction in China's PMI (Manufacturing PMI), which only indicates a slowdown in global economic indicators and a likely decline in consumer sentiment in the oil market, potentially putting Canadian exports at risk. According to NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) data for December, the index declined to 47.0 points from 48.0 points and the position of the composite indicator from Caixin to 49.0 points from 49.4 points. However, economists are hopeful that the loosened quarantine restrictions will act as a stimulus to strengthen the macroeconomic statistical bloc throughout 2023.

Experts said the key publication of the current week, which may have an impact on the trading tool is the December statistics release on the U.S. employment market. In case consumer inflation stays at 3.7%, the number of the employed will comply with the forecasts, strengthening by 200.0 thousand, the US Federal Reserve will have an additional argument for the correction of the monetary parameters in the future to overcome the rapid growth of inflation.

  • Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3793 and 1.3975.
  • Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3300, 1.3183.

Oil Market analysis

The price of benchmark Brent crude oil reflects contradictory trades, being in the area of 85.40. Earlier the price showed a slight strengthening, updating the local maximum of December 5, to which the instrument returned at the end of the previous month due to the weakening of the U.S. dollar, which sagged on expectations of lower rates of monetary policy correction by U.S. Federal Reserve officials.

Currently, experts assume a downward correction of the key indicator after Q2 2023 under favorable economic circumstances. Recall that the correction momentum, which began in March, changed the index by 425 basis points, significantly reducing the pace at the December summit. Thanks to such a decision, the "American" has strengthened substantially against its major peers, adding about 8.0%, reflecting its best growth performance since 2015.

  • Resistance levels: 86.00, 87.33, 89.20, 91.00.
  • Support levels: 85.15, 83.89, 82.27, 81.00.
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/TRY, USD/JPY and Silver for Thursday, March 28
EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/TRY, USD/JPY and Silver for Thursday, March 28 EUR/USD: Eurozone sentiment index signals improved prospectsThe EUR/USD currency pair follows the correction rate, being at 1.0823.Market activity has slowed in recent days due to traders' preference to avoid new deals amid the approaching Easter weekend, although economic data looks relatively favorable. For example, the consumer price index in Spain increased from 0.4% to 0.8% on a monthly basis in March and from 2.8% to 3.2% year-on-year. The index, harmonized with EU standards, showed an increase of 1.3% for the month, reaching the highest value since June 2022 and accelerating from 2.9% to 3.2% year-on-year. The EU consumer confidence index fell from -14.9 to -15.5 points, inflation expectations rose from 3.9 to 5.6 points, and the index of expectations in the service sector rose from 6.0 to 6.3 points. Market optimism is fueled by the anticipation of an imminent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. Today, the chairman of the Bank of Italy, Piero Cipollone, expressed confidence that inflation will fall to the target level of 2.0% by mid-2025, based on a slowdown in wage growth, which may be the basis for adapting monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.0870, 1.0980.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0700.USD/TRY: tourist growth in Turkey reached 22.68 in February%During the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY rate continues to show an upward trend on the short-term horizon, approaching the level of 32.3060 for a possible breakout, ahead of the publication of important statistics on consumer inflation in the United States.The Turkish lira is losing ground amid the current economic difficulties in the country. Recently, the Central Bank of Turkey increased the key rate by 500 basis points to 50%, which came as a surprise to analysts who expected a 250-point increase or stabilization of the rate. Inflation expectations remain stable on the part of the government: it is assumed that by the end of the year the inflation rate will reach 36%, and by 2025 it will decrease to 14%. The beginning of the tourist season contributes to a partial economic recovery: in February, the number of foreign tourists increased to 22.68%, reaching 2.3 million people, of whom 1.3 million visited Istanbul. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his intention to attract 60 million tourists this year, which should bring the country an income of $ 60 billion. Last year, 56.7 million people visited Turkey, which is 12% more than the previous year, bringing in revenue of 54.3 billion dollars, which is an increase of 16.9%.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.45000, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.USD/JPY: currency pair stabilizes near historical peaksThe USD/JPY currency pair is approaching the 151.35 mark, with the yen at its lowest levels since 1990. The discussion of the possibility of currency interventions by the Bank of Japan has again intensified among market participants, recalling last year's events when the exchange rate exceeded 145.00.The central bank's rejection of negative interest rates did not bring significant support to the national currency, as this decision was predictable. Analysts' attention is focused on the potential tightening of monetary policy, the prospects for which remain vague.Representatives of the Bank of Japan stressed their intention to continue applying a soft monetary policy and maintain the current volume of interventions in the government bond market. Naoki Tamura, a member of the Board of Governors of the Bank of Japan, expressed the view that it is necessary to consistently focus on tightening the monetary sphere and warned against the dangers of aggressively increasing the cost of lending in the event of too rapid inflation.Resistance levels: 151.50, 152.00, 152.50, 153.00.Support levels: 151.00, 150.50, 150.00, 149.50.Silver market analysisThe price of silver shows a moderate increase, approaching the indicator of 24.70 and continuing the growth that began a day earlier, after moving away from the minimum values on March 13 against the background of unclear expectations for easing the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System. A previous statement by the US central bank eased concerns about a slowdown in the pace of lower lending costs this year: markets are still anticipating three interest rate adjustments of 25 basis points each, with the first expected step in June.The final data on gross domestic product (GDP) will be in the focus of traders' attention today The United States for the fourth quarter of 2023 and statistics on applications for unemployment benefits. Economic growth is expected to remain at 3.2%, and the number of new applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended March 22 will increase from 210.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 24.71, 25.00, 25.35, 25.58.Support levels: 24.40, 24.20, 24.00, 23.83.
Mar 28, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Wednesday, March 27
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Wednesday, March 27 EUR/USD: Gfk Group reports an increase in consumer sentiment in GermanyThe EUR/USD currency pair shows an ambiguous movement, stabilizing near the 1.0830 indicator: on the previous day, the pair showed attempts at an active upward movement, continuing the positive dynamics of the beginning of the week and reaching peak values since March 22.Ahead of the day, investors are analyzing March data on economic sentiment in the euro area. It is expected that information will be provided on inflation in Spain, where growth is projected to 0.6% compared to the previous month and to 3.2% on an annual basis. In addition, representatives of the European Central Bank, including Piero Cipollone and Frank Elderson, are scheduled to speak.In Germany, the April results on the Gfk Group consumer climate index were recently published, which came out better than expected: the index rose from -28.8 to -27.4, exceeding forecasts of -27.9. This indicates a gradual improvement in consumer sentiment in Europe's largest economy, with a growing tendency for households to increase spending. Rolf Buerkle, an expert at Gfk Group, notes that higher incomes and stability in the labor market create a favorable basis for the revival of consumption, although the population still lacks optimism about future economic development.Resistance levels: 1.0838, 1.0863, 1.0900, 1.0930.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730.NZD/USD: the currency pair stabilizes near the key support level of 0.6000During the Asian session, the NZD/USD currency pair is approaching the 0.6000 level, checking it for the possibility of a downward breakout. Investors are being cautious, refraining from opening new deals against the background of the upcoming Easter holidays and waiting for the publication of the price index for personal consumption in the United States, scheduled for Friday at 14:30 GMT +2.This index is of key importance for the US Federal Reserve in assessing inflationary trends. It is expected that in February it will show an increase from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.5% on an annual basis. The underlying index is expected to slow down from 0.4% to 0.3%. On the same day, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, who may comment on future credit policy in light of the latest inflation data. Market monitoring of statements by other Fed representatives is also ongoing. For example, in a speech at Harvard, Lisa Cook of the Board of Governors stressed the need for caution in easing monetary policy, pointing to persistent inflation, especially in the real estate sector. Austan Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, in an interview with Yahoo Finance, noted that despite the general decline in the index, price pressure in the housing sector remains and this may contribute to a transition to a softer tone in regulation in the coming months.Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6030, 0.6049, 0.6076.Support levels: 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920, 0.5885.AUD/USD: consumer inflation in Australia remains at its peakWith the strengthening of the US dollar, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at the level of 0.6530.The February consumer price index in Australia rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with previous data and exceeding expectations at 3.3%. The stability of the index was supported by an increase in prices for insurance and financial services (+8.4%), tobacco products (+6.1%), housing (+4.6%) and food products (+3.6%). The most significant price reductions affected meat and seafood (-2.0%), entertainment and culture (-1.7%), as well as gas and other household energy sources (-1.4%).The US dollar showed stability after the previous decline, trading at 104.00 on the USDX index. The market reacted positively to data on basic orders for durable goods, which showed an increase of 0.5% in February after a decrease of 0.3% in the previous period, as well as an increase in orders for durable goods by 1.4% after a drop of 6.9%. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, based on a survey of 5.0 thousand American families and reflecting their assessment of the current and future economic climate, was fixed at 104.7 points against 104.8 points earlier, which had a temporary impact on the US currency.Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6630.Support levels: 0.6510, 0.6440.Crude Oil market analysisDuring Asian trade, WTI crude oil prices show a decline, continuing the trend of the previous day, when they rolled back from the levels reached on March 20, while heading towards testing the indicator of $ 80.60 per barrel downward.In the context of the debate on the future of energy, OPEC Secretary General Haissam al-Gais criticized proposals to completely abandon the use of hydrocarbons to preserve the climate, calling such ideas "erroneous and divorced from reality." He stressed that such a step would have a negative impact on many aspects of life, including transport, food production, medicines, medical devices and even the manufacture of equipment for renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar panels. He also noted that predictions of reaching a peak in oil consumption by 2030 are based on proposals for the complete elimination of fossil fuels. According to OPEC estimates, demand could reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, and possibly 120 million barrels. Haysam al-Gais points out that approximately $14 trillion in investments in the energy industry will be required to meet future supply needs by 2045.Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 83.00, 84.27.Support levels: 80.00, 79.07, 78.00, 77.00.
Mar 27, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and gold on Tuesday, March 26
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and gold on Tuesday, March 26 AUD/USD: the long-term vector of "hawks" has led to increased pressure on householdsThe AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing volatile dynamics, being near the 0.6540 indicator: Monday's session ended with a noticeable rise, mainly due to technical aspects.The Reserve Bank of Australia's latest semi-annual review, presented on Friday, notes that despite the fact that rising inflation and interest rates have put family budgets at risk over the past two years, most borrowers are still meeting repayment schedules. Since the regulator began raising rates in May 2022, debt service costs have increased by 30-60%. Nevertheless, one in twenty mortgage holders in Australia spends more than they earn, but the share of housing loans with a delay of more than 90 days is less than 1%. The report also highlights that the healthy labor market situation helped to maintain the ability of Australians to pay off debts: in February, the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% compared with 4.1% earlier, and the number of new jobs reached a record 117.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 0.6554, 0.6578, 0.6600, 0.6616.Support levels: 0.6524, 0.6500, 0.6486, 0.6468.USD/CHF: the US dollar checks the 0.9000 level for the possibility of an upward breakoutDuring Asian trading, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a slight strengthening, trying to overcome the barrier at 0.9000, which it sought to gain a foothold on Friday.The US dollar is receiving limited support due to fading assumptions about the imminent transition of the Federal Reserve System to a softer monetary policy this summer: optimistic economic data and additional evidence of increasing inflationary pressures give grounds for the Fed to maintain a cautious course. Now the chances of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the June meeting are estimated to be slightly above 60%, while a week ago this figure was at 53%.The change in expectations may be due to the recent decision of the Swiss National Bank to lower rates by 25 basis points, despite analysts' forecasts that they would remain at 1.75%. The accompanying document emphasized that inflation has been within the 2% target for several months now, and it is not expected to accelerate in the foreseeable future. In addition, by the end of 2025, the forecast for the consumer price index was adjusted from 1.9% to 1.4%. The market foresees at least two more rate cuts before the end of this year.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9072, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8964, 0.8935, 0.8900, 0.8865.USD/JPY: yen is approaching a record lowIn the context of the strengthening of the US dollar and after the Bank of Japan abandoned the policy of negative interest rates, the USD/JPY exchange rate is gaining momentum, reaching 151.40, and is heading towards exceeding the record mark of 151.90.Traders analyzed the conclusions from the latest minutes of the meeting of the Japanese central bank, at which it was decided to increase the interest rate from -0.10% to 0.10% and adapt the terms of the asset purchase program: continued purchases of government bonds will be carried out without a fixed limit, while operations with ETFs and J-REITs will be stopped. In light of the current decline in the value of the yen, Japanese Vice Minister of Finance Masato Kanda pointed to the speculative nature of this phenomenon, which does not reflect the real economic picture, and expressed his readiness to take all necessary steps to prevent a further fall in the currency. At the same time, the preliminary index of economic indicators for March showed a decrease of 0.4% to 109.5 points, while the inflation rate of production prices remained at 2.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month.Resistance levels: 151.95, 154.10.Support levels: 150.60, 148.30.Gold price analysisThe XAU/USD currency pair is stabilizing near the level of 2170.00 after a fluctuating rise a day earlier. Traders refrain from opening new deals, preferring to wait for fresh economic data and statements from members of the Federal Reserve System that can give an idea of the future direction of monetary policy. The main forecast in the market remains the assumption of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in June, although at the moment the probability of such an outcome barely reaches 60%. It is expected that only 3-4 rate corrections will occur this year, but the market is still under the influence of numerous risks.Today, the US is due to publish data on orders for durable goods, where an increase of 1.3% is expected in February after a decrease of 6.2% in the previous month, while orders excluding military and aviation goods may show an increase of 0.1% after stagnation in January. An important indicator for the Fed, reflecting average inflation, will be presented on Friday, when most European markets will not work due to the Easter holidays. The price index of personal consumption expenditures for February is expected to grow by 0.4% after an increase of 0.3% in the previous month, with a possible acceleration in annual dynamics from 2.4% to 2.5%, while the base index may remain at 2.8%.Resistance levels: 2181.30, 2195.12, 2215.00, 2230.00.Support levels: 2164.68, 2150.00, 2134.09, 2120.00.
Mar 26, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY for Monday, March 25th
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY for Monday, March 25th EUR/USD: German economic outlook index rose to 87.5 points in MarchDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction, reaching the level of 1.0813 after it updated the lows recorded on March 1 at the end of last week.The upward trend is due to positive economic statistics from Germany: the January import price index remained at the same level after a previous decline of 1.0%, with an annual slowdown in the price drop from -7.0% to -5.9%. The index of economic expectations in March increased from 84.4 to 87.5 points, the assessment of current conditions rose from 86.9 to 88.1 points, and the overall business climate index from the IFO Institute increased from 85.7 to 87.8 points. This improvement in business sentiment may contribute to the recovery of the German economy, despite the continuing risks of a deepening recession in the coming months. The President of the Federal Bank of Germany, Joachim Nagel, expressed the opinion that the European Central Bank could adjust its monetary policy as early as June, given the return of inflation to the target of 2.0%. Nevertheless, the possibility of accelerating wage growth and consumer prices is still present.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0920.Support levels: 1.0780, 1.0690.USD/CAD: the US dollar remains near its recent peak valuesDuring the Asian session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows mixed dynamics, being near the 1.3600 level and the peak values reached in mid-December. Market activity continues to be restrained, but the US dollar finds support in the latest macroeconomic statistics.The US currency is gaining ground against the background of the results of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve System, which confirmed the regulator's desire for a cautious approach in adjusting monetary policy, and the decision of the Swiss National Bank to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points. The market is reacting to updated economic activity data: the March S&P Global index in the manufacturing sector rose from 52.2 to 52.5 points, exceeding expectations of a decline to 51.7 points, while the index in the service sector fell from 52.3 to 51.7 points, which was below expectations of 52.0 points. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended March 15 decreased from 212.0 thousand to 210.0 thousand, contrary to forecasts of an increase to 215.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750.Support levels: 1.3550, 1.3525, 1.3500, 1.3450.GBP/USD: Pound retreats from lowsThe GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing an upswing, trying to overcome the 1.2600 level in the direction of an upward movement: the exchange rate is being adjusted after losses incurred at the end of the previous week, while market activity remains moderate. Traders are assessing the consequences of the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which decided not to change interest rates, in anticipation of a possible reduction in the cost of lending by the Fed by June, while the Bank of England may take similar steps no earlier than August or even later.The British pound was influenced by data on the UK economy published last Friday. Retail sales volumes in February remained unchanged from a month earlier after an increase of 3.6% in January, against the forecast of 0.3% growth, and in annual terms the decrease was 0.4% after an increase of 0.5%, despite the expectation of a drop of -0.7%. Excluding fuel, sales rose 0.2% after 3.4% in the previous month. According to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), due to difficulties with navigation through the Red Sea, affecting supply chains and causing oil prices to rise, manufacturers expect an increase in selling prices for their products. Despite this, the CBI predicts an improvement in economic conditions in the next quarter. The consumer confidence index provided by Gfk Group in March remained at -21.0, although analysts had expected -19.0.Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2734, 1.2771.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.USD/JPY: the consumer price index in Japan increased from 2.2% to 2.4% in annual termsThe USD/JPY currency pair shows an uncertain movement, remaining near the level of 151.30 and being near the peak values of November 2023, which were reached last week. This was facilitated by a decrease in market expectations regarding an immediate reduction in US Federal Reserve rates. Investors' attention was also drawn to the increase in the S&P Global manufacturing activity index from 52.2 to 52.5 points, contrary to analysts' forecasts of 51.7 points.The yen continued to feel pressure against the background of the Bank of Japan's historic decision to abandon the policy of negative interest rates, while maintaining a cautious tone in its statements, without hinting at rapid policy changes. Economic data did not support the yen: the consumer price index for February rose from 2.2% to 2.8%, while the indicator excluding the cost of food and energy decreased from 3.5% to 3.2%. Separately, it is worth mentioning a Reuters study among leading economists on the future actions of the Bank of Japan, according to which the majority of respondents expect an interest rate increase of 25 basis points at least once a year.Resistance levels: 151.50, 152.00, 152.50, 153.00.Support levels: 151.00, 150.50, 150.00, 149.50.
Mar 25, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD for Friday, March 22
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD for Friday, March 22 EUR/USD: the US Federal Reserve adjusted its GDP forecast to 2.1%The EUR/USD currency pair shows a slight drop, continuing to follow the "bearish" trend that developed on the previous day. Currently, the exchange rate is trying to overcome the level of 1.0830 down, while the market is carefully awaiting the March statistics from Germany, which will be provided by the Institute for Economic Research (IFO). Analytical forecasts foreshadow an increase in the business optimism index from 85.5 to 86.0 points and an increase in the index of economic expectations from 84.1 to 84.7 points, while the assessment of current conditions may slightly decrease from 86.9 to 86.8 points.Yesterday's data on economic activity in the countries of the European monetary area caused mixed reactions. In particular, a significant drop in the French manufacturing index from S&P Global to 45.8 points, against the expected 47.5 points, and a decrease in the index in the service sector to 47.8 points with a forecast of 48.7 points attracted the attention of investors. At the same time, in Germany, activity in the service sector accelerated to 49.8 points, which significantly exceeded forecasts of 48.8 points, although the manufacturing sector showed a slowdown to 41.6 points, contrary to expectations of 43.1 points.Resistance levels: 1.0864, 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0964.Support levels: 1.0838, 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765.AUD/USD: solid labor market contributes to high RBA key rateThe AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a noticeable drop, moving away from the peak values set on March 13 and updated a day earlier. During the Asian trading session, the currency tested the 0.6525 level, trying to break it down, while the US dollar is showing recovery after recent losses. The positive dynamics of the US currency is supported by increased demand for risky assets, due to high interest rates and stable macroeconomic indicators. Analysts have recently revised their forecasts regarding the probability of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in June, now estimating it at about 50%, with the possibility of further reduction if the slowdown in inflation proves insufficient.The Australian dollar strengthened after the publication of impressive labor market data, with an increase in the number of jobs by 116.5 thousand in February, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase of 40.0 thousand. At the same time, the indicator for January was adjusted from 0.5 thousand to 15.3 thousand. Unemployment fell from 4.1% to 3.7%, against the forecast of 4.0%. These data indicate the continued strength of the Australian labor market, allowing the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain the interest rate at an elevated level. Preliminary data on economic activity for March were also published, a decrease in the manufacturing sector to 46.8 points and an increase in the services sector to 53.5 points, while the overall activity index improved to 52.4 points.Resistance levels: 0.6551, 0.6578, 0.6600, 0.6616.Support levels: 0.6524, 0.6500, 0.6486, 0.6468.NZD/USD: New Zealand currency reaches new minimum valuesThe NZD/USD currency pair is experiencing a slight drop, continuing to move within the framework of a short-term downtrend and updating the lows reached in November 2023. The exchange rate is trying to overcome the level of 0.6015 in the direction of further decline, while the US dollar finds support in the growing interest in risky assets and lower expectations of an early reduction in the cost of lending by the Federal Reserve System.Last week, the US Federal Reserve held a meeting, the results of which did not bring changes in monetary policy. The authority confirmed its position on the need for additional evidence of a stable decline in inflation towards the 2% target. Expectations for an interest rate cut for the current year have also been revised: three 25 basis point cuts are now forecast, as opposed to the four expected in December.The New Zealand dollar is under pressure due to the latest economic reports: The country's GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023 decreased by 0.1%, following a decrease of 0.3% in the previous quarter, despite forecasts of growth of 0.1%. The annual GDP figure also decreased by 0.3%, which is an improvement over the 0.6% drop and contradicts analysts' expectations of 0.1% growth.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6049, 0.6076, 0.6100.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920.GBP/USD: the Bank of England's interest rate remained unchanged at 5.25%During the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD exchange rate shows a noticeable drop, being around the 1.2628 mark against the background of the latest business activity data and the results of the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting.On the previous day, the expected decision of the Bank of England to maintain the interest rate at 5.25% was announced, with only one vote in favor of reducing rates. The statement after the meeting pointed to a decrease in inflationary pressure and a slowdown in wage growth, although these indicators still significantly exceed the target values, which poses additional risks to the economy in the event of too rapid monetary policy easing. The Bank's forecasts remain stable: inflation is expected to fall below 2% in the second quarter, after which a slight increase is possible. Current data showed a slight decrease in the index of business activity in the service sector to 53.4 points from 53.8, in the manufacturing sector an increase to 49.9 points from 47.5, and the composite index decreased to 52.9 points from 53.0.Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2860.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2500.
Mar 22, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and gold on Wednesday, March 20
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and gold on Wednesday, March 20 EUR/USD: positive trends in the German economy are gaining momentumContrary to expectations for an improvement in the economic climate in the European Union, during the Asian trading session, the euro shows a correction in pair with the dollar, stabilizing at 1.0868.The latest data from Eurostat indicate an increase in the consumer price index by 0.6% in February, which is in line with experts' forecasts and helps to lower annual inflation from 2.8% to 2.6%, bringing it closer to the ECB's target of 2.0%. A study by the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) in March showed a slight improvement in assessments of the current economic situation in Germany and an increase in economic optimism both in Germany and in the eurozone as a whole.The day will continue with the publication of data on industrial inflation in Germany, which indicates a monthly correction from 0.2% to -0.4% and a moderate slowdown in annual inflation. In addition, statistics on construction production in the eurozone and updated consumer confidence indicators expected to improve are to be disclosed. The market's anticipation of news about future monetary policy will increase after the speech by Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0980.Support levels: 1.0840, 1.0760.USD/CHF: experts predict the stability of the Swiss National Bank rateThe USD/CHF pair is showing moderate growth, approaching the 0.8895 indicator in order to overcome it in the direction of an uptrend, while updating the peak values for mid-November 2023. Market activity is characterized by moderation, as market participants take a wait-and-see attitude on the eve of the announcement of the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. While dramatic shifts in the regulator's approach are not expected, some investors are beginning to doubt the implementation of the plan for three rate cuts within a year. If the regulator indicates the possibility of only two adjustments, this may cause the strengthening of the US dollar.The Swiss National Bank will also hold a meeting on monetary policy issues tomorrow, scheduled for 10:30 GMT (+2). Analysts assume that there will be no changes in monetary policy, and the rate will remain at 1.75%. The probability of monetary policy adjustments by the Swiss regulator will arise after the decisions of the American and, possibly, European central banks. It is important to note that inflation in Switzerland showed a decrease to the lowest since October 2021, amounting to 1.2% on an annual basis in February. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 0.8% over the year, housing and energy accounted for an increase of 3.1%, and the cost of educational services rose by 1.8%. At the same time, healthcare costs decreased by 0.4%, and transportation costs decreased by 0.5%.Resistance levels: 0.8900, 0.8950, 0.9000, 0.9025.Support levels: 0.8865, 0.8850, 0.8820, 0.8800.USD/CAD: US dollar is gaining momentumDuring morning trading in Asia, the USD/CAD exchange rate shows strengthening, actively testing the 1.3575 level for an upward breakout. This is happening against the background of yesterday's achievement of new peaks, unseen since December 13, although the bullish mood has subsided a little since then.The Canadian dollar is under additional pressure due to the country's domestic economic statistics: the February consumer price index jumped 0.3% after stagnating in the previous month, falling short of the expected 0.6%. This led to a slowdown in the annual growth of the index from 2.9% to 2.8%, which is lower than analysts' forecasts of 3.1%, and core inflation decreased from 2.4% to 2.1%. Given that price pressure is decreasing faster than expected, this may help strengthen the cautious position among representatives of the Bank of Canada regarding future monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750.Support levels: 1.3550, 1.3525, 1.3500, 1.3450.Gold analysisDuring the Asian trading session, gold prices stabilized around the 2155.00 mark. Market participants are being cautious, postponing active trading actions in anticipation of the results of today's announcement following the meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The interest rate is expected to remain at 5.25–5.5%, but the focus is on the prospects for future policy expressed in the comments of the regulator. Market participants mostly adhere to the forecast of the first rate cut in June and possible three adjustments until the end of 2024. If the Fed highlights the risks of inflation and reduces the number of expected downgrades to two, this could strengthen the position of the US dollar.The next day, the market's attention will switch to the results of the meetings of the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England, which are expected to leave their current settings unchanged, but express a desire to get acquainted with additional data on consumer inflation for further decisions. At this point, gold is under slight pressure, as it seems that the world's central banks prefer not to rush to change their course, following the policy of the Federal Reserve.Resistance levels: 2164.68, 2179.85, 2195.12, 2215.00.Support levels: 2150.00, 2134.09, 2120.00, 2100.00.
Mar 20, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, March 19
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, March 19 EUR/USD: euro continues to decline against the background of yesterday's bearish trendThe EUR/USD price continues to move downwards, testing the 1.0865 mark, which brings it closer to the minimum values of the beginning of March.The market is focused on the updated statistics on inflation in the eurozone for February. The expectations were confirmed: The consumer goods price index increased by 0.6% over the month and by 2.6% over the year. Core inflation also showed an increase of 0.7% and 3.1%, respectively, exceeding the goals of the European Central Bank (ECB). At the same time, ECB representative Pablo Hernandez de Cos expressed the opinion about the possibility of lowering interest rates in the summer if the trend of slowing inflation continues. Despite some disagreements within the ECB, this approach seems reasonable. Recent ECB forecasts indicate a decrease in expected inflation in the coming years, especially due to a decrease in the impact of energy costs, projected at an average of 2.3% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0964, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0864, 1.0838, 1.0820, 1.0800.NZD/USD: New Zealand Dollar resumes declineDuring the trading session, NZD/USD demonstrated an increase in the "bearish" trend, heading towards testing the 0.6060 level for a possible break down and updating the lows recorded since February 14.Activity on the New Zealand dollar is mainly caused by the results of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which affects expectations regarding the policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand due to the similarity in the approaches of managing monetary policy of the two countries. At the RBA meeting, it was decided to leave the key rate at 4.35%, while rejecting previously possible assumptions about further rate increases. This indicates a likely move to lower rates, which is similarly expected from the RBNZ. Monetary policy easing in this region is projected to follow similar actions by the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and possibly the Bank of England towards the end of 2024.Resistance levels: 0.6076, 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158.Support levels: 0.6049, 0.6030, 0.6000, 0.5950.GBP/USD: market expects inflation data from the UKIn the Asian trading session, against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar and the lack of news from the UK, the GBP/USD pair shows a moderate drop, being at 1.2717.The strengthening of the dollar is associated with anticipation of the results of the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy, scheduled for Thursday at 14:00 GMT. Analysts do not expect changes in the regulator's policy, but there is concern about possible signals of an imminent rate cut, preceding similar steps by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The upcoming publication of inflation data on Wednesday will have a significant impact on the regulator's decisions. The consumer price index in February is expected to show an increase to 0.7% month-on-month and a decrease to 3.5% year-on-year, while core inflation may fall to 4.6%. The growth of the retail price indicator is also projected to slow down from 4.9% to 4.5% year-on-year.Resistance levels: 1.2750, 1.2860.Support levels: 1.2690, 1.2540.Crude Oil market analysisIn the Asian session, WTI crude oil quotes showed fluctuations, remaining near the $82.00 bar and approaching the recently updated highs recorded on November 3.China's increased appetite for oil imports has a positive impact on prices: the latest government report showed that at the beginning of the year refining reached 119.0 million tons, which is 3.0% higher than in the same period of the previous year. The market's attention is also focused on the recent attacks on oil refining facilities in Russia, which may lead to a decrease in the amount of fuel available on the market.Analysts' views are also focused on the expected decline in supplies from OPEC+. According to the latest data, Iraq plans to reduce exports by 3.3 million barrels per day, reacting to previous production overflows. At the same time, Saudi Arabia reduced sales in January by 0.2% to 6.30 million barrels per day, continuing the downward trend that began in December, when 6.31 million barrels per day were shipped.Resistance levels: 82.86, 84.27, 85.50, 86.50.Support levels: 82.00, 81.00, 80.00, 79.07.
Mar 19, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, platinum and crude oil on Friday, March 15
EUR/GBP, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Platinum, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, platinum and crude oil on Friday, March 15 EUR/GBP: euro is strengthening after a significant drop a day earlierThe EUR/GBP currency pair shows a slight rise, reaching 0.8537, recovering from a noticeable drop a day ago. The drop was caused by the publication of data from the United States confirming the persistence of inflation, which may affect the revision of the time frame for lowering interest rates in the last half of 2024. The February producer price index in the United States accelerated to 1.6% per annum, exceeding analysts' forecasts, and increased monthly by 0.6%, which is significantly higher than expectations. The core index, which excludes the cost of food and energy, also showed an increase of 2.0%, which contradicted the forecast of 1.9%.Meanwhile, in the UK, statistics on the RICS house price index were published, indicating a decrease of 10.0% in February, which is the best result since October last year. The demand index for new housing improved to 6.0. The construction sector is also showing signs of recovery, with an annual growth of 0.7% and a monthly increase of 1.1%. Despite the positive signals from the housing market, uncertainty about the future steps of the Bank of England may limit demand and contribute to a return to a declining trend.Resistance levels: 0.8546, 0.8562, 0.8577, 0.8591.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8519, 0.8500, 0.8479.NZD/USD: New Zealand currency deepens the decline, reaching the minimum values in MarchThe NZD/USD currency pair continues to fall, activating the "bearish" trend this week and reaching new lows for March. The indicator enters the critical support zone at 0.6100, while positive economic data from New Zealand does not resonate with investors. In particular, the country's manufacturing activity index for February exceeded expectations, rising from 47.5 to 49.3 points.At the same time, rising manufacturing inflation in the United States is putting additional pressure on the New Zealand dollar. The latest report showed an acceleration in the producer price index in the United States from 0.3% to 0.6% in February, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts. This has increased doubts about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June, although this outcome remains the preferred scenario in the market.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6158, 0.6183, 0.6200.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6076, 0.6049, 0.6030.Platinum market analysisThis week, the correction trend continued its influence on the platinum position, bringing the quotes back to the value of 930.00 dollars per ounce.The market situation remains stable: the significant platinum deficit recorded last year, which reached a record 878,000 ounces according to the World Platinum Council (WPIC), is expected to decrease to 418,000 ounces next year, which still exceeds previous forecasts of 353,000 ounces. In the previous year, the total supply of the metal decreased by 2%, and this trend is expected to intensify with a further 1% year-on-year decline, leading to a 6% decrease in total supply over the past five years.Although market estimates seem neutral, the key technical aspect remains significant: the price of palladium exceeded the cost of platinum for eight years, but in February of this year the trend changed, and the difference between the metals temporarily amounted to -47 dollars. Now the price gap has widened again, and the difference between palladium and platinum has again exceeded $ 140. This significant change in profitability over a short period draws investors' attention to such a conservative investment strategy.Resistance levels: 942.00, 989.00.Support levels: 915.00, 876.00.Crude Oil market analysisIn the Asian trading session, the price of WTI crude oil shows uncertainty, hovering around the level of $ 80.60 per barrel, after reaching its highest levels since the beginning of November over the past two days.A significant decrease in the volume of fuel reserves in the United States became a catalyst for growth: fresh statistics from the American Petroleum Institute showed a decrease of 5.521 million barrels per week, exceeding analysts' expectations. These data are confirmed by a report from the Energy Information Administration, which also indicates a decrease in reserves. An additional positive boost was received from OPEC, which approved forecasts for oil demand growth, which reduces concerns about a slowdown in the global economy.Investors today will focus on American industrial production and consumer expectations from the University of Michigan. In the evening, Baker Hughes is expected to report on the number of operating oil platforms in the United States, which may provide new clues about the future direction of oil prices.Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 82.86, 84.27.Support levels: 80.00, 79.07, 78.00, 77.00.
Mar 15, 2024 Read
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