AUDUSD: Australian dollar is set to strengthen
Despite the weak macroeconomic statistics the AUDUSD currency pair is testing the 0.6748 level due to the U.S. dollar correctional sentiment.
Thus, the dynamics of Australia's gross domestic product for Q4 2022 increased only 0.5% against economists' estimates of 0.8%, slowing the annual rate from 5.9% to 2.7%, which fits the forecast of experts who remain confident that the economy will not go into recession even if the slowdown continues. Consumer prices slowed to 7.4% from 8.4% in the past, supporting the national currency.
- Resistance levels: 0.6800 and 0.6980.
- Support levels: 0.6690, 0.6500.
NZDUSD: The "New Zealander" is developing a positive trend
Currency pair NZDUSD shows rapid strengthening of positions, trading in the area of 0.6210 within development of the positive impulse received with the beginning of the week, where the asset was near the local minimum of November 22.
A moderate support for the quotations of the instrument was provided by macroeconomic statistics block, published earlier. Thus, the expected activity from the National Bank of New Zealand for February was adjusted to -9.2% from the previous -15.8% with the estimates of the further worsening to -20.7%. The business optimism of the RBNZ Index grew to -43.3 points from -52.0 points. China's National Bureau of Statistics Manufacturing Business Activity for February rose to 52.6 points from 50.1 points, beating a preliminary forecast of 50.5 points, and the Service Segment to 56.3 points from 54.4 points, with a negative reading of 49.7 points expected, breaking the psychological threshold of 50.0 points.
- Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6288, 0.6350, 0.6400.
- Support levels: 0.6200, 0.6155, 0.6100, 0.6050.
The price of the precious metal is developing a local correction signal, testing the 21.08 mark, which is largely due to the dynamics of the US currency. Thus, the USD Index has fallen below the threshold of 105,000 again.
Meanwhile, the long-term fundamental background continues to point to the investment attractiveness of the instrument. Thus, based on the last quarterly report Form 13F, which is filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, large investors, the banking sector continues to hold positions in silver ETFs. For example, JPMorgan Chase & Co. bank was able to hold a strong equity put option in the key iShares Silver Trust precious metal ETF at the end of Q4 2022, which was valued at $1 billion. Referring to the reflection of this option in document 13F, the position will continue to be active, which it will remain until the end of Q1 this year. Large investors, in turn, may hold an option of this nature for the long term, using it to hedge for shorter-term risk contracts.
- Support levels: 20.60, 19.60.
- Resistance levels: 21.50, 23.10.
Oil market analysis
During the Asian trading session the quotations of the North American light crude oil are rapidly growing, being at the level of 77.50.
Earlier the crude oil successfully updated the local peak of February 17, reacting to the positive background on the further prospects for the Chinese economic indicators. Economists expect China's growing energy demand to be able to outweigh its overall contraction as key central banks tighten monetary parameters further across the region. Moreover, the global market environment for hydrocarbons remains tense amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, which continues an acute phase of escalation.
- Resistance levels: 78.00, 78.74, 79.81, 81.00.
- Support levels: 77.00, 76.00, 75.00, 74.00.