USDJPY: Japan assessed Q4 GDP dynamics
The Asian trading session shows attempts of the yen to win back its losses, reaching the 136.87 level due to the positive national GDP data.
Japan's gross domestic product in Q4 last year remained unchanged, having declined 0.3% in line with previous expectations. It was the reason for the local growth of the annual index from -1.1% to 0.1% in the previous period. Investors note that technical exit of economy from recession gives positive signals to the market, contrary to analysts' expectations of more active dynamics. The driver for positive indicators was the increase in consumer spending, which added 0.3% for Q4 in 2022, having shown zero dynamics before. The value of exports increased by 1.5%, reflecting a positive trend for the fifth quarter in a row, while imports decreased by 0.4%, which has not been seen since Q3 2021. Meanwhile, business decreased capital investment by 0.5%.
- Support levels: 135.30, 131.00.
- Resistance levels: 138.00, 142.00.
AUDUSD: the regulator continues to tighten monetary parameters
According to the trading floors, the weaker Australian dollar allows the AUDUSD to quote at 0.6612.
Investors noted the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise the interest rate by 0.25%, bringing the target to 3.60%, which signaled the continuation of the hawkish vector, as economists suggested. According to experts, an increase in the indicator at a more rapid rate of 0.50% would have caused a strong vulnerability of the "Australian" to the main competitors of the currency basket, stimulating a more serious decline. Commenting on the situation, Chairman Philip Lowe said that the dynamics of consumer prices is close to its peak and the indexation of wages was less than expected marks, which will avoid the formation of a "spiral" trend. According to preliminary data the consumer prices can reach the target range of 2.0%-3.0% at the end of the year, now the regulator officials have planned a pause to assess the state of economic activity after ten stages of key increase.
- Resistance levels: 0.6670 and 0.6860.
- Support levels: 0.6560, 0.6360.
Silver prices
The precious metal is quoted by the local correction trend, testing the 20.10 mark. At the end of the last month, the silver has fallen to the current 20.00 from 24.00 in the past, and the USD Index has strengthened to 105.500 from 101.000 in the same period, showing a high correlation between these instruments.
The future outlook for the banking metal does not look cloudless. So, the summit of the American regulator was announced on March 22, and taking into account the "hawkish" rhetoric of the agency's head the day before, the investors agreed that the interest rate correction will amount to 0.50%. The proponents of a more aggressive fight against consumer prices are getting more and more, which creates a positive background to support the dollar.
The industrial sector has continued to reduce the need for silver since the beginning of this year. According to statistics from the Semiconductor Industry Association, the January 2023 global market for semiconductor products, where the metal is widely used, declined 18.5%, amounting to $41.23 billion to last January 2022's $50.74 billion.
- Resistance levels: 20.60, 22.00.
- Support levels: 19.60, 18.20.
Oil Market analysis
The price of WTI crude oil is moving in a local corridor of 71.00-83.40. in anticipation of stimulus, which could increase the chances of more volatility.
The stock is supported by the statistics from the Energy Information Administration of U.S. Department of Energy, which reflected a reduction of reserve by 1.694 million barrels this week, while market expectations were 0.395 million barrels and the previous indicator was 1.165 million barrels. Meanwhile, the geopolitical factor, which affects Russia as a major oil and oil products importer, and market participants' caution about high probability of global economic recession, significantly restrain the growth of the asset, thus confirming the forecast of Barclays analysts, who revised the average oil price estimates for the current year. Thus, the Brent grade, according to the analysts, will be able to reach 92.00 against 98.00 last year, and WTI may hold at 87.00 instead of the previous estimate of 94.00.
- Resistance levels: 80.95, 83.40, 89.77.
- Support levels: 73.00, 71.00, 66.00, 62.00.