Forex analytical forecast for today, March 9, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, silver and crude oil

AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, March 9, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, silver and crude oil

USDJPY: Japan assessed Q4 GDP dynamics

The Asian trading session shows attempts of the yen to win back its losses, reaching the 136.87 level due to the positive national GDP data.

Japan's gross domestic product in Q4 last year remained unchanged, having declined 0.3% in line with previous expectations. It was the reason for the local growth of the annual index from -1.1% to 0.1% in the previous period. Investors note that technical exit of economy from recession gives positive signals to the market, contrary to analysts' expectations of more active dynamics. The driver for positive indicators was the increase in consumer spending, which added 0.3% for Q4 in 2022, having shown zero dynamics before. The value of exports increased by 1.5%, reflecting a positive trend for the fifth quarter in a row, while imports decreased by 0.4%, which has not been seen since Q3 2021. Meanwhile, business decreased capital investment by 0.5%.

  • Support levels: 135.30, 131.00.
  • Resistance levels: 138.00, 142.00.

AUDUSD: the regulator continues to tighten monetary parameters

According to the trading floors, the weaker Australian dollar allows the AUDUSD to quote at 0.6612.

Investors noted the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise the interest rate by 0.25%, bringing the target to 3.60%, which signaled the continuation of the hawkish vector, as economists suggested. According to experts, an increase in the indicator at a more rapid rate of 0.50% would have caused a strong vulnerability of the "Australian" to the main competitors of the currency basket, stimulating a more serious decline. Commenting on the situation, Chairman Philip Lowe said that the dynamics of consumer prices is close to its peak and the indexation of wages was less than expected marks, which will avoid the formation of a "spiral" trend. According to preliminary data the consumer prices can reach the target range of 2.0%-3.0% at the end of the year, now the regulator officials have planned a pause to assess the state of economic activity after ten stages of key increase.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6670 and 0.6860.
  • Support levels: 0.6560, 0.6360.

Silver prices

The precious metal is quoted by the local correction trend, testing the 20.10 mark. At the end of the last month, the silver has fallen to the current 20.00 from 24.00 in the past, and the USD Index has strengthened to 105.500 from 101.000 in the same period, showing a high correlation between these instruments.

The future outlook for the banking metal does not look cloudless. So, the summit of the American regulator was announced on March 22, and taking into account the "hawkish" rhetoric of the agency's head the day before, the investors agreed that the interest rate correction will amount to 0.50%. The proponents of a more aggressive fight against consumer prices are getting more and more, which creates a positive background to support the dollar.

The industrial sector has continued to reduce the need for silver since the beginning of this year. According to statistics from the Semiconductor Industry Association, the January 2023 global market for semiconductor products, where the metal is widely used, declined 18.5%, amounting to $41.23 billion to last January 2022's $50.74 billion.

  • Resistance levels: 20.60, 22.00.
  • Support levels: 19.60, 18.20.

Oil Market analysis

The price of WTI crude oil is moving in a local corridor of 71.00-83.40. in anticipation of stimulus, which could increase the chances of more volatility.

The stock is supported by the statistics from the Energy Information Administration of U.S. Department of Energy, which reflected a reduction of reserve by 1.694 million barrels this week, while market expectations were 0.395 million barrels and the previous indicator was 1.165 million barrels. Meanwhile, the geopolitical factor, which affects Russia as a major oil and oil products importer, and market participants' caution about high probability of global economic recession, significantly restrain the growth of the asset, thus confirming the forecast of Barclays analysts, who revised the average oil price estimates for the current year. Thus, the Brent grade, according to the analysts, will be able to reach 92.00 against 98.00 last year, and WTI may hold at 87.00 instead of the previous estimate of 94.00.

  • Resistance levels: 80.95, 83.40, 89.77.
  • Support levels: 73.00, 71.00, 66.00, 62.00.
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, oil and gold for Wednesday, April 24
EUR/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, oil and gold for Wednesday, April 24 EUR/USD: American business did not meet analysts' expectationsIn the current trading session, the EUR/USD pair is showing growth, moving to the level of 1.0700 and updating the highs since April 12 thanks to the released macroeconomic statistics.The values of the indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector in France and Germany for April showed 44.9 and 42.2 points, having stabilized relative to the previous month. In the service sector in France, the index increased from 47.7 to 50.5 points, and in Germany — from 50.1 to 53.3 points. The entire region showed a decrease in manufacturing activity from 46.1 to 45.6 points, while in the services sector the index rose from 51.5 to 52.9 points, which contributed to the growth of the composite index from 50.3 to 51.4 points. Today will bring a speech by the President of the German Federal Bank, Joachim Nagel, in which the forecasts of economic development and inflation are expected to be clarified.Resistance levels: 1.0730, 1.0800.Support levels: 1.0670, 1.0600.NZD/USD: currency pair shows a short-term uptrendThe NZD/USD pair is seeing a slight upward momentum, aiming to exceed the recent peaks of mid-April: the exchange rate is approaching 0.5950, reflecting an increase when traders analyze the latest New Zealand trade data. March reports showed an increase in exports from 5.79 billion to 6.5 billion dollars and a decrease in imports from 6.1 billion to 5.91 billion, reducing the trade deficit from 12.06 billion to 9.87 billion dollars, and allowing the trade balance to reach a surplus of 0.588 billion on a monthly basis.At the same time, the US currency came under pressure after the publication of business activity indices for April: the S&P Global manufacturing index fell from 51.9 to 49.9 points, which is worse than expectations for growth to 52.0, and the services index fell from 51.7 to 50.9 points, against the forecast of 52.0 points.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.5975, 0.6000, 0.6030.Support levels: 0.5920, 0.5885, 0.5858, 0.5830.Analysis for GoldThe price of gold showed an uptrend, reaching the level of 2325.0, but now it is experiencing a correction, indicating a decline in the activity of traders focusing on short-term operations.Recent statistics from the United States, presented this week, may delay the start of the interest rate cut cycle until the fall, given that the main indicators for the Federal Reserve remain the real estate and labor market sectors. The March report showed a decrease in the number of building permits to 1.467 million, which is the lowest level since last fall and indicates the untimely reduction of interest rates in the near future. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of monetary policy easing at the Fed meeting on May 1 is only 5.2%, and at the meetings on June 12 and July 31 — 14.8% and 37.9%, respectively. In this situation, investors who expected to profit from the strengthening of gold came to the conclusion that at the moment a correction is more likely than a further strengthening of prices.Resistance levels: 2350.0, 2410.0.Support levels: 2290.0, 2220.0.Oil market analysisIn the Asian trading session, the prices of WTI Crude Oil demonstrate stability, holding near the level of 83.30 dollars per barrel. This is happening against the background of the publication of April data on business activity in key sectors of the US economy, which turned out to be below analysts' expectations: the index in the manufacturing sector from S&P Global fell to 49.9 points, and in services fell to 50.9 points.It is expected that later today, at 14:30 GMT, new data on orders for durable goods in the United States for March will be announced, which may affect investment sentiment. It is predicted that the indicator for capital goods will decrease to 0.3%, while the total volume of orders excluding the defense sector, on the contrary, will increase to 2.5%. In addition, at 16:30, data from the US Energy Information Administration on oil reserves for the past week will be published, which are tentatively estimated to decrease by 1.7 million barrels.Attention should also be paid to the recent report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which showed a decrease in net speculative positions on WTI oil to 290.5 thousand. The reporting data indicate the restructuring of investors' portfolios, which may signal the anticipation of changes in the market. Thus, the balance of positions among producers and traders showed an active movement both to buy and to sell, which foreshadows possible fluctuations in oil prices in the near future.Resistance levels: 84.00, 84.75, 85.50, 86.00.Support levels: 83.00, 82.00, 81.00, 80.00.
Apr 24, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and Gold for Tuesday, April 23
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and Gold for Tuesday, April 23 AUD/USD: market is anticipating the Australian inflation report for the quarterThe AUD/USD pair is experiencing a moderate rise, continuing the positive trend started yesterday, and is striving to exceed the value of 0.6450, updating the highs since April 15 against the background of current economic indicators.The index of manufacturing activity in Australia from S&P Global increased from 47.3 to 49.9 points in April, while the indicator in the service sector from Commonwealth Bank fell slightly from 54.4 to 54.2 points. The composite index showed an increase from 53.3 to 53.6 points. With the start of trading in the United States, data on similar indices are expected on the market: it is predicted that in the manufacturing sector the indicator will increase from 51.9 to 52.0 points, and in services it will also reach 52.0 points. In Australia, the quarterly inflation report is also due to be published this week, where the consumer price index is expected to accelerate from 0.6% to 0.8% of quarterly growth and decrease annual inflation from 4.1% to 3.4%.Resistance levels: 0.6456, 0.6480, 0.6500, 0.6524.Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6388, 0.6361, 0.6300.USD/CAD: currency pair stabilizes at 1.3700The USD/CAD pair shows volatile trends at 1.3700 during the Asian session, maintaining the pace of the recent bearish trend, which led to lows since April 12.Positive economic signals came from the United States, where the March activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago rose to 0.15 points from 0.09. In Canada, meanwhile, new home prices remained unchanged after rising 0.1% in the previous month, and the growth rate of the industrial goods price index slowed to 0.8%, in line with forecasts.This week, the market's attention is focused on the American economy: on Thursday, the publication of primary GDP data for the first quarter is expected, which may show a slowdown in economic growth to 2.5% from 3.4%. On Friday, the key event will be an update on the personal consumption expenditure index, an important inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, presumably showing an acceleration of the base value to 0.3% monthly and a slowdown to 2.6% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3853.Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3616, 1.3580, 1.3550.USD/JPY: increased business activity in Japan in AprilThe USD/JPY pair holds positions in the horizontal range around 154.72, while the US dollar shows signs of slowing down.Without intervening directly, the Bank of Japan continues to monitor the market situation, despite a number of minor interventions that were quickly smoothed out by the market. After switching from a policy of negative interest rates to a range of 0.0–0.1%, the regulator emphasizes that it will maintain a soft monetary policy due to weakening inflation.The upcoming macroeconomic publications will attract additional attention of investors: in April, the business activity index in the Japanese manufacturing sector rose to 49.9, and the index in the service sector improved to 54.6. March inflation statistics showed a drop: the general consumer price index fell to 2.7%, and the base index to 2.9%. On Friday, data on April inflation in Tokyo and the meeting of the Bank of Japan are expected, which may affect the policy of currency intervention.Resistance levels: 155.10, 156.80.Support levels: 153.90, 151.80.Analysis for GoldThe price of gold is experiencing a noticeable drop, deepening into the "bearish" trend that began in the previous days: at the moment, gold is struggling with the support level of $ 2310.00 per ounce, reaching lows that have not been observed since April 5. The downturn is fueled by a decrease in tensions in the Middle East and expectations that the US Federal Reserve will not adjust its monetary policy until the fall, perhaps even until the end of 2024.Nevertheless, there is activity in the gold futures market. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the volume of net speculative positions fell from 202.4 thousand to 201.9 thousand last week. The number of positions backed by cash reached 198,276 thousand for bulls and 25,415 thousand for bears. Over the past seven days, the volume of purchases decreased by 10,357 thousand contracts, while sales decreased by 4,078 thousand, indicating continued asset sales among market participants.Resistance levels: 2320.00, 2336.50, 2353.79, 2375.00.Support levels: 2300.00, 2285.00, 2265.52, 2245.00.
Apr 23, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF for Monday, April 22
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF for Monday, April 22 EUR/USD: correction before data on consumer confidence in the eurozoneIn the current trading session, the EUR/USD pair is showing cautious growth, continuing the "bullish" trend set at the end of last week. At the moment, the euro is trying to overcome the level of 1.0665, while the market is waiting for new catalysts of movement. The fundamental situation today is predictable: the main attention is focused on the speech of Christine Lagarde from the ECB and the monthly report of the Bundesbank. In addition, investors are expecting data on the April level of consumer confidence in the eurozone, with a slight increase in the index from -14.9 to -14.0 points.An analysis of March statistics on the German producer price index shows an increase of 0.2% month-on-month, reducing annual industrial inflation to -2.9% from -4.1%, which is higher than analysts expected the indicator to stabilize.Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0730, 1.0765, 1.0800.Support levels: 1.0660, 1.0630, 1.0600, 1.0561.USD/CAD: currency pair is losing ground from the upper limit of the ascending channel 1.3800–1.3650In the Asian session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows stable performance, being at the level of 1.3725, in anticipation of new economic data.According to the latest report from Statistics Canada, in February there was a decrease in investment in construction: the total volume decreased by 1.1%, to CAD 19.3 billion, including investments in residential complexes fell by 1.2%, to CAD 13.4 billion, and in commercial and industrial buildings — by 0.9%, to CAD 6.0 billion. In the coming hour (14:30 GMT+2), data on March prices for industrial goods are expected to be published, their growth is projected to be 0.8%, as well as an update of the index of the cost of new housing, the estimated increase of which will be 0.1%. The commodity price index is also expected to increase by 2.9%.Resistance levels: 1.3760, 1.3870.Support levels: 1.3690, 1.3560.NZD/USD: increased consumer spending in New ZealandThe NZD/USD pair shows a moderate correction, holding at 0.5912 against the background of stabilization of the US dollar, while the lack of strong support from local economic statistics significantly restrains the growth of the New Zealand currency.A report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed that March credit card spending reached NZ$3.794 billion, up from February's level of NZ$3.697 billion, but still below the previous year's March figure of NZ$4.018 billion. Despite the growth of the last two months, the current figures still have not reached the levels of the end of the previous year, estimated at 4,200 billion New Zealand dollars.The US dollar, trading at 105.80 in USDX, remains the main factor influencing the dynamics of the pair. The recent report on the decline in sales in the secondary housing market in the United States to 4.19 million from 4.38 million, although lower than expected, supports some optimism, since the figures are better than last year's data (3.78 million). The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will largely depend on future data on the real estate sector, which may delay a possible rate cut if this sector weakens.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6040.Support levels: 0.5880, 0.5790.USD/CHF: Switzerland's March surplus reached 2.8 billion francsThe USD/CHF currency pair demonstrates stabilization of the 0.9122 level, despite positive macroeconomic data from Switzerland.Switzerland's March trade surplus expanded from 2.3 billion to 2.8 billion francs. Exports decreased by 0.6% to 21.1 billion francs, while imports decreased by 3.3% to 18.2 billion francs. In the export segment, there was a decrease in jewelry by 37.2% and watches by 1.5%. Among imported goods, jewelry and chemical and pharmaceutical products showed the largest drop, falling by 18.1% and 6.0%, respectively. These factors put pressure on the Swiss currency, supporting the trend towards strengthening the USD/CHF pair in the context of slowing international trade.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9250.Support levels: 0.9080, 0.8970.
Apr 22, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD for Thursday, April 18, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD for Thursday, April 18, 2024 EUR/USD: continued decline in the context of a long-term bearish trendAs part of a long-term downtrend, the EUR/USD pair experienced pressure, falling to the lower boundary of the channel near the 1.0600 mark, followed by a correction to the 1.0681 level. Amid expectations of changes in monetary policy, the market is tuning in to a possible rate cut by the European Central Bank as early as June, while the adaptation of the US Federal Reserve's policy is expected no earlier than September.Economic statistics support forecasts of an imminent correction: the March consumer price index of the eurozone showed a decrease to 2.4% per annum, the base index fell to 2.9%. In the US, by contrast, the consumer price index increased to 3.5%, while core inflation remained at 3.8%. Market expectations regarding the easing of monetary policy by Europe are supported by statements by ECB officials who are ready to cut rates in June, unless extraordinary events occur, such as increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which can cause an increase in energy prices.Resistance levels: 1.0742, 1.0864, 1.0925.Support levels: 1.0645, 1.0559, 1.0498.GBP/USD: annual inflation rate in the UK dropped to 3.2%In the Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair shows moderate growth, which began the previous day, and is trying to overcome the level of 1.2470, reacting to the latest data from the British economy.In March, monthly consumer price growth in the UK remained at 0.6%, and the annual inflation rate fell from 3.4% to 3.2%, falling short of the expected 3.1%. Core inflation, which excludes the cost of food and energy, also increased by 0.6%, which led to an annual rate of 4.2%, slightly higher than the forecast of 4.1%. The retail price index decreased to 4.3%, which was worse than the expected 4.2%, indicating a slower than expected decrease in inflationary pressure, which limits the rise of the pound. The market's attention on Friday will be focused on retail sales figures, which, according to forecasts, should show an improvement of 0.3% after stagnation in February.Resistance levels: 1.2520, 1.2690.Support levels: 1.2430, 1.2270.NZD/USD: pair is gaining strength after losses at the start of the weekNZD/USD is showing moderate growth, continuing the positive trend that began after the pair rebounded from the lowest values since the beginning of November 2023. At the moment, the exchange rate is approaching the psychological level of 0.5920, accompanied by expectations of new economic signals.Investors will direct their attention to the upcoming statistics on the American labor market, in particular, data on primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits are expected: forecasts indicate a slight increase in the number of initial applications from 211,000 to 215,000. In addition, a publication from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector may show a decrease from 3.2 up to 1.5 points in April, which can affect the dynamics of the pair.On the other hand, recent inflation data in New Zealand caused pressure on the national currency: the consumer price index for the first quarter showed a slowdown from 4.7% to 4.0% per annum, which was below expectations, while the quarterly index showed an unexpected increase from 0.5% to 0.6%.Resistance levels: 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975, 0.6000.Support levels: 0.5885, 0.5858, 0.5830, 0.5800.AUD/USD: Australian currency is moving away from recent low valuesDuring recent trading, the AUD/USD pair is experiencing an uptrend, moving away from the lows reached on November 14, 2023, with quotes actively attacking the 0.6445 level. Investors are carefully studying the data of the March report on the Australian labor market, published on Thursday.The report showed a decrease in the number of employed by 6.6 thousand, which was a sharp restraint after the previous increase of 117.6 thousand, against the projected 7.2 thousand. At the same time, the number of full-time jobs increased by 27.9 thousand, while part-time employment fell by 34.5 thousand. The unemployment rate increased from 3.7% to 3.8%, which was below analysts' expectations of 3.9%, and labor force participation decreased from 66.7% to 66.6%.The US dollar also received support after recent statements by Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. Although he did not provide a specific time frame for the start of rate cuts, he stressed that it would take more time to stabilize inflation at 2.0%. This led to a revision by investors of forecasts regarding the time of the first interest rate cut this year, while the majority believes that monetary policy easing is possible in September, followed by a possible reduction no earlier than the end of 2024. Up to two rate adjustments of 25 basis points each are expected this year.Resistance levels: 0.6456, 0.6480, 0.6500, 0.6524.Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6388, 0.6356, 0.6300.
Apr 18, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY for Wednesday, April 17th
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY for Wednesday, April 17th EUR/USD: economic mood in the eurozone improved to 43.9 pointsThe EUR/USD currency pair is showing moderate strengthening, recovering from a strong bearish trend that began last week and led to an update of the minimum values since November 2 of the previous year. The pair has now tested the 1.0625 level, waiting for new catalysts to move.The euro is supported by the latest data from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW): the index of economic sentiment in the eurozone increased from 33.5 to 43.9 points in April, which significantly exceeded analysts' expectations of 37.2 points and was the highest result since the spring of 2022. This strengthens expectations of an improvement in the economic situation in the next six months. In addition, the region's trade balance showed a surplus of 23.6 billion euros, almost doubling compared to January, due to an increase in exports of cars and equipment, as well as due to a decrease in energy imports. Today, data on the German wholesale price index for March were also presented, which remained at the level of 0.2% monthly growth, which exceeded analysts' expectations for a decrease to -0.1%, and the annual figure was -3.0%.Resistance levels: 1.0630, 1.0660, 1.0700, 1.0730.Support levels: 1.0600, 1.0561, 1.0530, 1.0500.USD/JPY: stabilization at historically high levelsThe USD/JPY currency pair shows mixed trends, holding near the level of 154.60. Buyer activity remains significant, but new positions are being opened cautiously in anticipation of potential interventions from the Bank of Japan. The regulator expressed concern about the speculative weakening of the yen, which, despite the recent interest rate increase, did not lead to a strengthening of the currency due to bias towards a soft monetary policy. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki confirmed that the monetary authorities are ready for decisive measures to stabilize the yen.Support for the Japanese currency also came from trade data for March: exports increased by 7.3%, despite a slight slowdown compared to February, and imports decreased by 4.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of 366.5 billion yen. In the US, on the contrary, the March data on the construction sector turned out to be less satisfactory: building permits fell by 4.3%, and the start of new construction decreased by 14.7%, which further weakened the dollar against the yen.Resistance levels: 155.00, 155.50, 156.00, 156.50.Support levels: 154.50, 154.00, 153.50, 153.00.USD/CAD: US dollar continues to dominate the currency pairThe USD/CAD currency pair is experiencing a correction, stabilizing at 1.3820 amid the activity of the US dollar and ambiguous Canadian economic statistics.March inflation data in Canada showed a 0.6% monthly increase in consumer prices and an increase in the annual index from 2.8% to 2.9%. However, the base index excluding food and energy prices showed a 0.5% monthly change and a decrease from 2.1% to 2.0% per annum, which was in line with market expectations.On the other hand, the US dollar reached a high level of 106.10 on the USDX index, which was confirmed by retail sales data. Sales in the United States increased by 0.7% monthly in March, exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.4%, and accelerated significantly year-on-year from 2.11% to 4.02%. Underlying sales also showed an increase from 0.6% to 1.1%. In addition, industrial production increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis and recovered to the level of 0.00% per annum after a previous decrease of 0.30%, which adds dynamism to the US dollar in the market.Resistance levels: 1.3850, 1.3960.Support levels: 1.3780, 1.3610.GBP/USD: analysis for the quarterWe present an analysis of the investment prospects of the GBP/USD pair for the medium term.The UK continues to experience economic difficulties caused by persistently high inflation. The actions of the Bank of England to stabilize it have not yet brought the expected result, and the current fluctuations in the pound are due to falling electricity prices on the stock market. Nevertheless, given the recent rise in oil prices, it is possible that the value of the pound will resume rising. The interest rate set by the regulator at 5.25% is likely to be supported at the next meeting on May 9, according to experts' forecasts. The consumer price index in March showed a decrease to 3.2% from 3.4%, and the main index excluding the cost of food and fuel remained at 4.2%. The pound is also feeling pressure from the retail sector: the core retail sales index increased by only 0.2% in February after rising by 3.4% a month earlier and fell by 0.5% in annual terms after an increase of 0.5% in the previous month. At the same time, the volume of retail sales in February remained unchanged, which led to an annual decline of 0.4%, and the GDP indicator for the same period decreased from 0.3% to 0.1%.
Apr 17, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD for Tuesday, April 16
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD for Tuesday, April 16 EUR/USD: euro continues the bearish trend that began last weekDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair is testing the level of 1.0614, continuing the "bearish" trend that began in the middle of the previous week. Then the euro fell from a peak of 1.0885, not finding support in the latest macroeconomic data.In February, the indicator of industrial production in monthly terms was adjusted from -3.0% to 0.8%, and in annual terms from -6.6% to -6.4%. The March wholesale price index in Germany remained at the level of the previous month (+0.2%), maintaining an annual decline of -3.0%. Today at 11:00 GMT (+2), the report of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) on the current state of the German economy is expected to be published, the indicator is projected to improve from -80.5 to a higher level, and the index of economic sentiment may rise from 31.7 to 35.9 points. On Wednesday, key data on consumer inflation in the eurozone for March will come to the market, it is expected that they will confirm the previous level of 0.8% monthly growth and 2.4% annual growth. Representatives of the European Central Bank, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, are also scheduled to speak on this day.Resistance levels: 1.0656, 1.0790.Support levels: 1.0590, 1.0460.USD/CAD: reaching new peaks before the release of Canadian inflation dataThe USD/CAD currency pair is showing unstable growth, trying to overcome the 1.3800 level. Market activity on Tuesday morning remains limited in anticipation of new inflation data in Canada, which is due to be published at 14:30 GMT (+2). The monthly consumer price index for March is projected to increase from 0.3% to 0.7%, and the annual inflation rate will increase from 2.8%.The core inflation indicators from the Bank of Canada remain close to the target values, with the February core inflation rate at 2.1% per annum. The expected statistics on the number of new buildings in Canada started in the reporting month — an important indicator for the country's construction sector - also attracts attention. It is expected that the number of construction projects started will increase from 223.6 thousand to 227.0 thousand, which will potentially strengthen the Canadian dollar.The day promises to be full of speeches by key monetary policy figures, including Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and head of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem, who can comment on the current policy prospects of their institutions. Market expectations regarding the reduction of interest rates in the United States tend to the fact that the Fed will maintain current rates in June, with a possible easing only by September, with a forecast of only two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2024, instead of three, as previously assumed.Resistance levels: 1.3800, 1.3853, 1.3900, 1.3950.Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3616.GBP/USD: pound stabilized at the low levels of November 2023The GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing a moderate decline, stabilizing around the level of 1.2430, which corresponds to the low values recorded on November 17, 2023.The British currency is currently under pressure from the latest data on the state of the UK labor market: the unemployment rate over the past three months has increased from 4.0% to 4.2%, the employment rate has decreased by 156.0 thousand, which turned out to be worse than the previous value of -89.0 thousand, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits in March increased from 4.1 thousand to 10.9 thousand, although it turned out to be lower than the expected 17.2 thousand. At the same time, the average salary, including bonuses, increased by 5.6% in February, exceeding forecasts of 5.5%.On Wednesday at 8:00 GMT (+2), inflation data for March is expected to be published in the UK: the annual consumer price index is projected to decrease from 3.4% to 3.1%, and the monthly increase by 0.6%. The core index, which does not take into account food and energy, may decrease from 4.5% to 4.1%, which will strengthen market expectations regarding a possible reduction in interest rates by the Bank of England. The retail price index is projected to fall from 4.5% to 4.2%. Last week, Megan Green, a member of the bank's board, warned investors that the transition to a softer monetary policy would take time, given the high rate of price growth in the service sector. A number of representatives of the British central bank, including its chairman Andrew Bailey, are expected to speak tomorrow to discuss the latest economic data.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2539, 1.2573.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2261.NZD/USD: significant potential for strengthening the fall of the currency pairThe NZD/USD currency pair has fallen below the support level of 0.5946 and is moving towards 0.5865 amid the strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies after the release of positive macroeconomic data.Traders will closely monitor the release of data on the New Zealand consumer price index for the first quarter, which will be published on Wednesday at 00:45 GMT+2. The index is expected to show growth of 0.6% in the quarter. If the data is confirmed, the New Zealand dollar may recover to the level of 0.5946. In case of negative developments, the NZD/USD will continue to decline to the next support level of 0.5865, overcoming which will open the way to the level of 0.5789.Resistance levels: 0.5946, 0.6005, 0.6069.Support levels: 0.5865, 0.5789.
Apr 16, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, cryptocurrencies, gold and crude oil for Monday, April 15
AUD/USD, currency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, cryptocurrencies, gold and crude oil for Monday, April 15 AUD/USD: pair has approached the support zone of 0.6489–0.6447During the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is approaching the important support zone of 0.6489–0.6447 against the background of American statistics.Last week was marked by the publication of inflation data in the United States, which contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar in the market. The US consumer price index in March showed a monthly increase of 0.4%, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.3%, and the annual index was 3.5%, also higher than the predicted 3.4%. The producer price index increased by 2.1% year-on-year, from the previous 1.6%, although analysts expected an increase to 2.2%, while the monthly index decreased from 0.6% to 0.2%, ahead of forecasts of 0.3%. The core inflation rate rose from 2.1% to 2.4%, while the forecast was 2.3%. These data have increased doubts about the Federal Reserve's willingness to cut the rate by 25 basis points in June.The Australian economy also showed weak results: the number of construction permits issued fell by 1.9% monthly, which is in line with forecasts, while the previous figure was revised from -1.0% to -2.5%.Resistance levels: 0.6629, 0.6657, 0.6859.Support levels: 0.6489, 0.6447, 0.6353, 0.6285.Gold market analysisThe price of gold has stabilized around the level of 2350.00. Last week, gold reached a historic high, rising to the level of 2430.00, however, the bulls failed to hold this position, and many traders decided to realize the accumulated profits.The rise in gold prices continues to be supported by geopolitical instability and forecasts for rate cuts by the world's largest central banks. The European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates as early as June, while the US Federal Reserve is likely to ease monetary policy later, with the first rate cut of 25 basis points expected in September.The latest macroeconomic data from the United States, published on April 12, increased pressure on the US dollar. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell from 79.4 to 77.9 points in April, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 79.0 points. The March import price index increased by 0.4%, accelerating by 0.1% compared to February, and on an annual basis the indicator also increased by 0.4% after a noticeable decrease of 0.8% a month earlier. Today, traders will closely monitor the March retail sales statistics in the United States, growth is expected to slow to 0.3% from February figures. The April index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will also be published, an improvement from -20.9 to -9.0 points is projected.Resistance levels: 2375.00, 2400.00, 2431.44, 2450.00.Support levels: 2353.79, 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00.Cryptocurrency market analysisThe price dynamics of bitcoin tried to rise, breaking the 72000.00 level, but by the end of the week it fell sharply, losing about 14.5% of its value due to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Over the weekend, Iran conducted missile strikes against Israel, which led to investor fears about the possible outbreak of a large-scale military conflict, which, in turn, contributed to the reorientation of investments in defensive assets such as gold and the US dollar. This downward trend affected not only Bitcoin, but also the wide cryptocurrency market, where in a few days there were liquidations of open positions totaling about $2.5 billion. In addition, the pressure on digital assets was influenced by monetary policy, as the chances of continued high interest rates by the US Federal Reserve increased amid renewed inflationary pressures.These events lowered the price of Bitcoin to a six-week low of 60400.00, after which its partial recovery began. Traders are returning to the market, hoping that there will be no further escalation of the Iranian-Israeli conflict, according to representatives of American diplomacy. In this context, a possible resumption of growth of the main cryptocurrency assets, supported by the expectation of an upcoming halving in the Bitcoin network, seems quite likely in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 68750.00, 71875.00, 75000.00.Support levels: 62500.00, 59375.00, 56250.00.Crude Oil market analysisAfter rising to 92.42 on Friday, Brent crude oil quotes are experiencing a correction to 89.85 amid reports that the Iranian attack on Sunday caused minimal damage to Israel's infrastructure.Last week, after aggressive statements by Iranian leaders, the price of oil exceeded 92.00, as market participants feared the expansion of the armed conflict beyond the region. On Sunday, more than 300 rockets and drones were fired at Israel, most of which were successfully shot down by the Iron Dome air defense system. Mohammad Bagheri, the head of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, said that the "True Promise" mission has been completed and no further attacks are planned. According to him, Iran adheres to the principles of the UN Charter and is not interested in escalating the conflict. Against this background, the quotes of Brent Crude Oil moved to a decrease.The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains difficult, which may lead to high volatility in the oil market in the coming months. Given that Iran is a significant oil producer in OPEC with production of more than 3 million barrels per day, the risks of supply interruption associated with sanctions and potential retaliatory actions by Israel contribute to the fact that the current price decline is rather corrective.Resistance levels: 91.95, 93.79, 96.22.Support levels: 89.10, 87.60, 85.39.
Apr 15, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, USD/TRY, NZD/USD and crude oil for Friday, April 12
USD/TRY, currency, EUR/GBP, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, USD/TRY, NZD/USD and crude oil for Friday, April 12 EUR/GBP: the interest rate of the European Central Bank remained at 4.50%The euro is at low levels compared to most major currencies, with the exception of the US dollar, while the EUR/GBP pair shows a corrective movement in morning trading, settling at 0.8541.At yesterday's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), officials, as expected, left the main monetary rates unchanged (the main rate is 4.50%, the marginal rate is 4.75%, the deposit rate is 4.00%) and expressed readiness to reduce them if inflationary pressure decreases. Regulators confirmed that the current slowdown in consumer price growth is in line with medium-term expectations, due to lower prices for food and household goods, but did not specify the timing of a possible change in interest rates. It also announced plans to complete the reinvestment program for emergency asset purchases due to COVID-19 by the end of the year and significantly reduce the asset purchase program. The reduction of the emergency procurement program is taking place at a rate of 7.5 billion euros per month, which will allow it to be completed by the end of November or December.UK economic growth remains weak: in February, GDP growth was, as expected, only 0.1%, which is lower than the previous 0.3%, and this led to a decrease in annual growth to -0.2%. Among the main factors of such dynamics are industrial production, which increased by 1.1%, improving the annual rate to 1.4%, and the construction sector, where a decrease of 1.9% on a monthly basis and 2.0% year-on-year was recorded.Resistance levels: 0.8560, 0.8600.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8480.USD/TRY: Investors tend to take profits after a week of growthThe USD/TRY currency pair shows ambiguous trends, holding near the level of 32.3165. Traders are refraining from opening new positions on Friday due to the expectation of a limited amount of macroeconomic data from the United States, as well as due to the profit-taking mood after moderate growth during the week. Earlier, the US dollar was helped by inflation data, which increased investors' doubts about the imminent reduction of the US Federal Reserve interest rate by 25 basis points in June.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to economic difficulties in the country. Despite the efforts of monetary authorities and a significant increase in rates by the Central Bank of Turkey, annual inflation accelerated from 67.07% in February to 68.50% in March. At the same time, independent analysts from the Inflation Research Group (ENAG) record an annual price increase of more than 120%. Additionally, on April 9, the Turkish Ministry of Commerce imposed restrictions on the export of 54 categories of goods to Israel, including cement, glass, iron, aluminum and steel, which puts additional pressure on the already strained construction sector. These sanctions, in effect until the end of hostilities and the creation of conditions for free humanitarian aid to Gaza, are likely to raise prices for both Israeli and Turkish consumers.Resistance levels: 32.4500, 32.6000, 32.7500, 32.9000.Support levels: 32.3000, 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306.NZD/USD: the US currency has reached a new recordThe NZD/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction near the 0.5995 level, as the New Zealand currency is facing difficulties in trying to regain its position against the background of disappointing macroeconomic statistics.The March report showed that spending via e-cards in New Zealand decreased by 0.7%, which in absolute terms is a decrease of NZ$ 45 million compared to February. Compared to March of the previous year, 2023, the total amount of expenses decreased by 3.0%. This decrease was recorded in almost all key sectors of the economy: of the seven main sectors, only wholesale trade, with the exception of services, showed an increase of 2.1%. The biggest deterioration was seen in the sectors related to sales of clothing and motor vehicles, each of which showed a 2.2% drop. There was also a decrease in the fuel sectors by 1.4%, durable goods by 0.3% and consumables by 0.2%.These data indicate continued pressure on the New Zealand economy, which negatively affects the national currency and contributes to volatility in the foreign exchange market. The lack of significant improvement in economic indicators may continue to put pressure on the New Zealand dollar in the near term.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6110.Support levels: 0.5970, 0.5870.Crude Oil market analysisPrices for North American WTI Crude Oil have stabilized at 85.09 in a sideways trend driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and seasonal growth in global fuel demand.The situation in the Middle East remains tense with expectations of possible Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israeli infrastructure, which has led to warnings for citizens of some countries to visit the region. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report predicted that global oil demand will increase to 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, and decrease to 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. A seasonal increase in fuel consumption is also expected in the second quarter: demand for aviation kerosene will grow by 600 thousand barrels per day, for gasoline — by 400 thousand, and for diesel fuel — by 200 thousand barrels per day.Resistance levels: 86.30, 90.00.Support levels: 84.00, 80.60.
Apr 13, 2024 Read
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