EUR/USD: FOMC minutes may encourage the pair
EUR/USD is in the price range of 0.9740-0.9670.
Bidders are not in a hurry to open new deals, because this week's central events can change trends - the release of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve System) meeting minutes, which will be held on Wednesday, and Thursday's release of September inflation statistics is announced. The minutes may contain officials' estimations of the current national financial situation and give some hints regarding the scenario of the future monetary tightening. At the same time, consumer price index data is considered a higher priority, as it can influence the U.S. Federal Reserve's decisions. According to preliminary estimates, inflation for September will fall to 8.1% from the previous 8.3% annual rate and the core rate to 6.5% from 6.3%. If the data conforms to the forecasts, the regulator can keep the current rate of key increase to 0.75% and in some episodes even to 1.00%, thereby only strengthening the U.S. currency.
- Resistance levels: 0.9825, 0.9887, 1.0009.
- Support levels: 0.9521, 0.9400.
AUD/USD: Negative factors continue to affect the "Aussie"
Currency pair AUD/USD continues to develop a downward dynamic, testing the level of 0.6270.
The Australian dollar is under the influence of the "bears" because of the decision of the national regulator to reduce the rate of monetary parameters correction, which increases the risk of recession in the global economy and a drop in world GDP. Recall that at the end of the previous week the agency increased the index by 0.25% instead of the expected 0.50%. According to the RBA assistant head Lucy Ellis, such practice may be applied further as the index has already reached neutral level of 2.6%. On the other hand, the pair's quotes are pressed by the declining global economy. Thus, according to extreme statistics of the IMF (International Monetary Fund), the global GDP may strengthen only 3.2% by the end of this year, which is inferior to indicators of 2021, and 2.7% by the end of 2023. If projections are true, the commodities market could be hit, which would reduce Australia's export earnings, and the national economy would face serious challenges.
- Resistance levels are at 0.6470, 0.6713 and 0.6835.
- Support levels: 0.6225, 0.6100 and 0.6000.
USD/JPY: Dollar keeps on updating the maximums.
The trading instrument USD/JPY keeps the development of the "bullish" trend, having updated another record. Having shown some weakening in the previous week, the U.S. dollar is once again actively strengthening against the Japanese yen, despite the risks of another currency intervention, which can be launched by the Central Bank of Japan. At the moment the currency pair quotes are above the 146.00 level, the "bulls" are waiting for the release of the results of the September FOMC meeting by the end of the afternoon session.
Investors' attention is likely to be concentrated around the announcements from the USA. Let's remind that already on Thursday final data on inflation for September is expected, according to which the consumer price index will show the decrease to 8.1% from the previous 8.3%, and the base index position, if not taking into account the energy and foodstuffs group, can show the correction to 6.5% from the previous 6.3%.
- Resistance levels: 147.00, 148.00, 149.00, 150.00.
- Support levels: 146.00, 145.00, 144.00, 143.51.
WTI: Oil Market Analysis
The price of North American WTI develops an active bulls' dynamic, having surpassed again the threshold of 86.00 against the OPEC decision to reduce production in November by 2.0 million barrels per day; another positive signal is the coming into effect of the ban on crude supplies from Russia to Eurozone countries.
Participants of the cartel at the level of ministerial meeting, which ended on October 5, agreed upon correction of plans taking into account the present state of affairs in the world, including uncertain outlook for global GDP and increase of estimates for the energy market for the long-term outlook. Investors are confident that such a decision is politicized. The U.S. administration has already developed mirror measures to corrective reduction in the cost of oil. Thus, the Department of Energy reports about withdrawal of strategic reserves to the world markets in case of need, but such option has a limited potential.
- Resistance levels: 97.00 and 103.15.
- Support levels: 89.00, 86.00, 76.50.
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