Forex analytical forecast for today, October 12, for AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY & Crude oil

EUR/USD: economists see a likely ECB rate cut in DecemberThe EUR/USD pair is trading with signs of corrective growth around 1.0574, which is facilitated by the weakening of the US dollar and support from positive data on the eurozone economy.The publication of data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the eurozone for the third quarter is expected today at 12:00 (GMT+2). According to analysts, the quarterly indicator will remain at 0.4%, and the annual indicator will adjust to 0.9% against the previous 0.6%, which indicates the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Meanwhile, investors have already assessed the published statistics on retail sales, which decreased by 0.5% on a monthly basis, which turned out to be worse than the predicted -0.4%. On an annualized basis, the decrease was 1.9%, which exceeded expectations of 1.7%, but still remains less significant compared to the previous 3.0%. The reduction of industrial orders in Germany to 1.5% in October after 4.2% earlier strengthened the arguments of supporters of the ECB's "dovish" rhetoric. A Reuters poll confirms experts' expectations: the cost of borrowing is likely to be reduced by 25 basis points at the December 12 meeting. Forecasts for 2024 suggest that the regulator will continue to adjust rates, reducing them by a total of 100 basis points next year.Resistance levels: 1.0610, 1.0740.Support levels: 1.0550, 1.0420.AUD/USD: Australia's GDP growth rate was below market expectationsThe AUD/USD pair is trading in a sideways range, holding near the 0.6430 mark, due to weak economic statistics from Australia and a decline in the position of the US dollar. Despite the small activity, investors remain cautious when assessing the current data on the dynamics of the Australian economy.According to published data, in the third quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) growth amounted to 0.3% in quarterly terms, which is lower than analysts' forecasts of 0.5%. The annual rate also slowed from 1.0% to 0.8%, falling short of expectations of 1.1%. The indicators of foreign trade showed a more positive trend: exports increased from -4.7% to 3.6%, and imports moved into a positive zone, rising from -2.8% to 0.1%. The trade balance also improved, increasing from 4.532 billion to 5.938 billion Australian dollars. Although positive changes in exports may support the economy, the slowdown in GDP growth remains a key factor in the pressure on the Australian currency. Investors continue to assess the prospects for economic development, waiting for new signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia and additional data that may affect the further dynamics of the AUD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6470, 0.6600.Support levels: 0.6400, 0.6260.NZD/USD: the week ends with the weakening of the New Zealand currencyThe NZD/USD pair is correcting downwards, testing the 0.5855 mark, almost leveling out the results of the growth observed on Thursday. Market participants prefer to take profits on long positions before the publication of the November report on the US labor market, forecasts for which remain contradictory.Against the background of the lack of significant news from New Zealand, the main attention of traders was focused on data from China. The index of business activity in the service sector decreased from 50.2 to 50.0 points, while the same indicator in the NBS manufacturing sector rose slightly from 50.1 to 50.3 points. The Caixin indicator, on the contrary, showed a steady increase from 50.3 to 51.5 points, significantly exceeding the projected 50.5 points, which indicates an improvement in conditions for the manufacturing sector.Analysts expect a gradual recovery in the New Zealand real estate market. Over the next two years, housing construction volumes could increase by 5.0%, helped by a 125 basis point reduction in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. At the same time, according to a Reuters poll conducted at the end of November, average rent growth will continue to outpace inflation, which will increase pressure on family budgets as house prices have doubled over the past seven years. Experts predict that in 2025 and 2026, the value of real estate will grow by 5.1% annually, while in 2023 a decrease of 0.3% was recorded. The Reserve Bank had previously assumed a similar recovery, forecasting a 4.0% price increase in 2025 and almost 7.0% in 2026.Resistance levels: 0.5888, 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975.Support levels: 0.5858, 0.5830, 0.5800, 0.5750.USD/CAD: the former head of the Bank of Canada announced the beginning of a recessionThe USD/CAD pair is showing a moderate increase, aiming to gain a foothold above the 1.4030 level. Trading activity remains subdued, as market participants are waiting for the release of important employment statistics in the United States and Canada, which may set the direction for further dynamics.At a recent webinar organized by Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, former head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz said that the country is showing signs of a technical recession. According to him, despite the absence of two consecutive quarters with negative GDP growth, a significant increase in migration to Canada has changed the structure of consumption: the growing demand for basic goods contrasts with the reduction in spending by local residents, who are faced with a 30 percent increase in the cost of living amid the recent inflationary surge. Confirming Poloz's words, Statistics Canada last week reported that GDP per capita fell by 0.4% over the last quarter, extending a series of cuts to six in a row. Economists point to the weakness of domestic markets and the high burden on the budget of the population, which confirms the vulnerability of the country's economy.Resistance levels: 1.4050, 1.4100, 1.4145, 1.4200.Support levels: 1.4000, 1.3958, 1.3908, 1.3862.

EUR/USD: investors' attention is focused on the crisis in FranceThe EUR/USD pair is correcting near the 1.0509 mark, demonstrating a decrease in interest in the US dollar, but at the same time not receiving sufficient support from the macroeconomic data of the eurozone.According to forecasts, the November index of business activity in the Spanish services sector will decrease from 54.9 points to 53.6 points, in Italy from 52.4 points to 51.1 points, in France from 48.1 points to 44.8 points, and in Germany from 51.6 points to 49.4 points. These data indicate a slowdown in economic activity even against the background of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) aimed at supporting businesses and reducing debt pressure. The combined indicator of business activity in the eurozone is likely to decrease from 51.6 points to 49.2 points, which will take it out of the positive zone for the first time since the beginning of the year.Investors' attention is also focused on the political situation in France, where Prime Minister Michel Barnier, bypassing parliament, is promoting a bill providing for an increase in the tax burden on businesses by $ 62.8 billion and a reduction in government spending by $ 42.0 billion in order to reduce the budget deficit of 6.1% of GDP. This step caused sharp dissatisfaction with the opposition, which initiated the procedure for passing a vote of no confidence in the government. The escalating crisis risks exacerbating the already difficult situation of the national economy, which continues to struggle with high inflationary pressures.Support levels: 1.0460, 1.0330.Resistance levels: 1.0540, 1.0680.NZD/USD: construction statistics brought down NZD positionsThe NZD/USD pair started the week with negative dynamics, holding around 0.5860 after the publication of fresh macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand.According to the report, in October, the number of construction permits issued fell by 5.2%, which is significantly worse than the forecast of 1.7%. The previous value was also revised downwards from 2.6% to 2.4%. Such data reinforce concerns about a slowdown in economic growth and a possible negative impact on gross domestic product (GDP). In the current situation, experts predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may consider options for lowering interest rates to stimulate business activity, which puts pressure on the national currency. However, there are also positive signals: trading conditions improved from 2.1% to 2.4% in the third quarter, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations at 1.8%. This factor can provide short-term support to the New Zealand dollar, deterring it from a deeper decline until additional catalysts appear on the market.Resistance levels: 0.6035, 0.6120, 0.6220.Support levels: 0.5860, 0.5800, 0.5600.Silver market analysisAfter a long period of decline, the XAG/USD pair is showing recovery and is holding at 31.06 during trading in the Asian session. However, there is no confident upward momentum yet.One of the main limiting factors remains the decline in interest in silver, both in the form of contracts and in the form of physical metal, which is in demand in industry. According to the Silver Institute, in 2024, the volume of investments in this asset may decrease by 15.0%, reaching only $ 208.0 million. The decline is particularly noticeable in the US market, where sales of investment bars and coins fell by 40.0%, which is the lowest since 2019. The reason for this trend may be both a reduction in the financial capabilities of market participants and their preference for more active instruments such as gold or oil. Nevertheless, certain positive trends persist. In particular, industrial demand for silver will increase by 7.0% this year, and investments in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by this metal will grow by 8.0%. This growth will be the first improvement since 2020, indicating a recovery in interest from long-term investors and the industrial sector.Resistance levels: 31.40, 33.00.Support levels: 30.50, 28.70.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices continue to move towards the important 70.00 mark, supporting the optimistic mood in the global commodity markets. The weakening of the US dollar has become a key driver of the current positive dynamics, which helps attract investors to energy purchases.The focus of market participants is on the meeting of OPEC+ ministers scheduled for Thursday at 12:00 (GMT+2). It is expected that the cartel members will again be unable to come to an agreement on increasing oil production, postponing this decision for the third time in a row for a maximum period of three months. The previous adjustment of production volumes, scheduled for December and amounting to 180.0 thousand barrels per day, was also postponed from October. This uncertainty is related to the variability in the forecast of global demand for hydrocarbons, especially against the background of slowing economic growth in key consumer countries. Special attention is paid to China, where economic difficulties have been observed since the beginning of autumn, but their mitigation has been accompanied by the country's active transition to electric transport, which reduces oil consumption. This process, although gradual, is already having an impact on the market. According to Reuters analysts, Chinese oil companies predict a further decline in demand for raw materials, as electric vehicles continue to displace gasoline-powered vehicles.Resistance levels: 71.20, 74.10.Support levels: 68.60, 65.50.

EUR/USD: Euro shows a downward trend againThe EUR/USD pair is showing a noticeable decline, correcting after active "bullish" trading at the end of last week. Quotes are approaching the 1.0531 mark, testing it for a downward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for the publication of fresh statistics on business activity in the United States and the eurozone for November.According to forecasts, the index of business activity in the industrial sector of Germany and the eurozone, calculated by S&P Global, will remain at the levels of 43.2 points and 45.2 points, respectively. In the United States, this indicator, according to analysts, will remain at 48.8 points, and data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) may show an increase from 46.5 points to 47.5 points. At 12:00 (GMT+2), markets are waiting for the publication of data on the unemployment rate in the eurozone for October, which is projected at 6.3%, as well as a speech by the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde. Her comments may shed light on the regulator's plans for further monetary easing.Last week, the eurozone presented inflation data for November: the annual consumer price index rose from 2.0% to 2.3%, which fully coincided with analysts' expectations. On a monthly basis, the indicator decreased by 0.3% after rising by the same amount a month earlier. Core inflation increased year-on-year from 2.7% to 2.8%, but decreased by 0.6% on a monthly basis after the previous 0.2% increase. Experts are confident that the European Central Bank is unlikely to resort to more aggressive easing measures, although some members of the Governing Council admit this possibility. For example, the head of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Gallo, suggested that a rate cut of 50 basis points at the December meeting is quite possible.Resistance levels: 1.0530, 1.0561, 1.0600, 1.0630.Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0350.GBP/USD: investors' attention is focused on the financial report of the Bank of EnglandIn the morning hours, the GBP/USD pair shows a moderate decline, retreating from the highs reached last week on November 13, and is trading at 1.2686. The pound continues to maintain neutral dynamics, which allows the US dollar to maintain its leading position in the asset.At the end of last week, the Bank of England presented a financial stability report, where it outlined the main economic benchmarks for the near future. In the document, the members of the Financial Policy Committee stressed the stability of the UK banking system: the stress tests carried out confirmed the high level of capitalization and liquidity of national banks. The regulator called geopolitical instability and an increase in public debt the key threats to the economy. At the same time, the achievement of intermediate inflation reduction goals was noted as a positive result of the current monetary policy, which opens up opportunities for adjusting interest rates in the short term. The Bank of England also noted the relative stability in the labor market, which contributes to the stability of the economy. Today at 11:30 (GMT+2), the attention of market participants will be focused on the business activity index, which is estimated based on a survey of purchasing managers of leading British companies. According to analysts' expectations, in November the index value in the manufacturing sector will remain at 48.6 points, which indicates the continuation of a negative trend in the industry, despite some support from the regulator's policy.Resistance levels: 1.2730, 1.2890.Support levels: 1.2640, 1.2490.NZD/USD: New Zealand real estate market shows continued declineThe NZD/USD pair is showing a correction, trading around the 0.5891 mark against the background of strengthening the position of the US dollar.The New Zealand currency is under pressure due to weak macroeconomic indicators in the real estate market. In October, the number of construction permits issued decreased by 6.9% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 2,850 thousand. In the 12 months ending in October, the total number of permits decreased by 16.0%, reaching 33,467 thousand. The analysis of statistics on various housing categories shows an increase in negative dynamics: townhouses amounted to 1,174 thousand permits, which is 15.0% lower than a year earlier; Apartments accounted for only 0.183 thousand permits (-24.0%), and buildings in rural areas showed the sharpest drop by 29.0%, to 0.130 thousand. The situation in the housing sector is rapidly approaching the minimum levels recorded in January, increasing pressure on the economy and strengthening expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.Resistance levels: 0.5920, 0.6020.Support levels: 0.5870, 0.5800.AUD/USD: an attempt to break through 0.6450 ended with an upward pullbackAfter the AUD/USD pair failed to break through the 0.6450 support level last week, it demonstrates its readiness to move towards the 0.6550 mark.The upward trend is supported by statements by the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Michelle Bullock. Last week, she stressed that core inflation remains at a high level, which excludes the possibility of an interest rate cut in the near future. The monetary policy regulator's meeting is scheduled for December 10, and if the rate remains at 4.35%, the Australian dollar may receive additional support, opening the way to the levels of 0.6550 and 0.6655. Additionally, the Australian currency is supported by data on the construction sector: in October, the number of construction permits issued increased by 4.2% on a monthly basis, significantly exceeding the forecast of 1.2%. Retail sales also increased by 0.6% over the month, while analysts expected 0.4%. However, the general state of the economy is not without weaknesses: gross profit of companies in the third quarter decreased by 4.6% compared to the previous period, where growth of 0.6% was forecast, which confirms the continuing challenges for businesses in the context of high borrowing costs.Resistance levels: 0.6550, 0.6655.Support levels: 0.6450, 0.6353.

EUR/USD: ECB representative Mario Centeno called for a neutral rate levelThe EUR/USD pair shows indecisive dynamics, remaining near the level of 1.0480. Activity in the market remains moderate after stormy trading, which did not lead to significant changes in quotations. Yesterday's rise in the euro was due to statements by Donald Trump, who won the US presidential election, about his readiness to increase import duties on goods from China, Mexico and Canada, but without mentioning the European Union. This has led to speculation about a possible softening of his pre-election position on trade with the EU.Investors are focused on statements by representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB). Mario Centeno, a member of the Board of Governors, expressed the opinion that the interest rate should be returned to a neutral range, optimally decreasing to 2.0% in moderate steps of 25 basis points. However, Centeno also admitted the possibility of a more aggressive rate cut in December to support economic activity in the region. According to him, such measures will help bring inflation closer to the target level below 2.0%, which confirms the effectiveness of the current monetary policy. Most analysts share this opinion, believing that the rate may be reduced to 3.00% at the upcoming ECB meeting. Such a decision is expected against the background of the ongoing recession in the manufacturing sector: the business activity index fell from 46.0 to 45.2 points in November, although analysts predicted it would remain at the same level.Resistance levels: 1.0500, 1.0530, 1.0561, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300.GBP/USD: the pound quotes are preparing to riseThe decline in the GBP/USD pair slowed down in the range of 1.2505–1.2480, which is due to profit-taking on short positions opened during October and November, as well as the publication of unfavorable macroeconomic statistics from the United States.According to the Conference Board, in November, the consumer confidence index fell to 111.7 points, which turned out to be slightly lower than the forecast of 111.8 points. Additional pressure was exerted by the October report on new home sales, which fell by 17.3% instead of the expected decline of 3.6%. This was the most significant drop since 2010: total sales amounted to 610.0 thousand against the projected 730.0 thousand. Given the importance of this sector to the economy, such a recession may slow down the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) The United States in the coming quarters.Against the background of the released British statistics, the pound received support. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 2.3% year-on-year in October, exceeding analysts' forecasts (2.2%) and the previous value (1.7%). On a monthly basis, the indicator was 0.6%, reaching its highest since April, which increased inflation risks. Such dynamics may force the Bank of England to postpone the decision to reduce the interest rate at its meeting on December 19. On Friday, the market's attention will be focused on the publication of financial stability reports and minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England, where hints can be given about the future course of monetary policy. Experts also expect that the volume of consumer lending will grow from 3.8 billion to 4.1 billion pounds, and the number of approved mortgage applications in October will decrease from 65,647 thousand to 64,100 thousand.Resistance levels: 1.2715, 1.2870, 1.3055.Support levels: 1.2480, 1.2322, 1.2058.USD/CAD: сorporate profit in Canada decreased by 2.5% in the third quarterDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD pair shows a correction at the level of 1.4070. The Canadian dollar remains under pressure due to the weakness of the domestic economy, and the growth of the US currency supports a confident upward trend.According to Statistics Canada (StatsCan), the completed reporting period for the third quarter showed a decrease in net profit before tax (NIBT) by 2.5%, which is equivalent to a decrease of 4.1 billion Canadian dollars. As a result, the figure reached 157.4 billion Canadian dollars. The most noticeable slowdown is observed in the financial sector, where a decrease was recorded in ten of the thirteen industries, and total losses amounted to 5.5% or 2.5 billion Canadian dollars, which led to a result of 44.8 billion Canadian dollars. In the non-financial sector, 17 of the 39 subsectors also reported a drop in profits, by an average of 1.3% or 1.5 billion Canadian dollars, which reduced the total to 112.6 billion Canadian dollars.Resistance levels: 1.4100, 1.4250.Support levels: 1.4010, 1.3820.Oil market overviewQuotes of WTI Crude Oil continue to move within the long–term downward channel, however, consolidation has been observed within it for the second month in the sideways range of 67.19-71.88.Last week, the price rose from the lower boundary of this corridor to the level of 71.80, which was associated with increased geopolitical tensions. This happened after the US authorities approved the use of American weapons for strikes on Russian territory, which could potentially damage the oil infrastructure. However, on Monday, the price of oil fell again amid statements by US President-elect Donald Trump about plans to impose duties of 25% on all imported goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10% on products supplied from China. Despite the fact that Canadian oil is likely to be exempt from restrictions due to its high importance, measures aimed at reducing Chinese exports increase concerns about a further decline in global oil demand. Additional pressure on the market is exerted by the truce announced today between Israel and the Lebanese organization Hezbollah. This interim agreement helps to reduce geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and reduces the risks of disruptions in the supply of hydrocarbons from the region.Resistance levels: 71.88, 75.00, 78.12.Support levels: 68.75, 65.62, 62.50.

GBP/USD: Deputy head of the Bank of England doubts the stability of inflationary trendsThe GBP/USD pair maintains an unstable "bearish" trend, trading near the 1.2550 mark and demonstrating attempts to break it. The dynamics of the pound today were negatively affected by data from the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC) on the retail sales index for November: the indicator fell by 0.6% after a 0.8% decrease in October, increasing concerns about the weakness of consumer demand in the UK.Deputy Governor of the Bank of England Claire Lombardelli discussed three possible scenarios of economic development proposed by the Monetary Policy Committee and their impact on inflation and rates. The first scenario assumes that reducing external shocks will allow inflation to gradually return to the target level of 2.0%, which will create conditions for more active monetary policy easing. The second scenario, which corresponds to the current position of the regulator, assumes the preservation of strict parameters to control wage and price growth. Lombardelli noted the likelihood of a slowdown in wage growth to 3.5–4.0% and stabilization of inflation around 3.0%. The third scenario is of the greatest concern, which is associated with deep structural changes in the country's economy, which can provoke a prolonged inflationary cycle.Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2), the market will focus on the final data on US GDP for the third quarter: it is expected that the indicator will remain at the level of the previous estimate of 2.8% in annual terms. In addition, investors are waiting for statistics on household income and expenses, as well as the price index of personal consumption expenditures — a key indicator of inflation for the US Federal Reserve. A slight acceleration in annual terms is predicted from 2.1% to 2.3%, while the base index may increase by 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.8% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2730.Support levels: 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2350.USD/CHF: employment data supported the strengthening of the francThe USD/CHF pair recorded a decrease from the level of 0.8957 reached last week to the level of 0.8870, against the background of the publication of macroeconomic data from Switzerland.In the third quarter, employment in the country increased to 5,528 million, exceeding the expectations of analysts who had predicted 5,500 million, and improving the result of the previous period of 5,499 million. This growth may become an important factor for the Swiss National Bank when deciding on further monetary policy at its meeting on December 12. Given the positive signals from the labor market, the regulator may keep the current interest rate at 1.00% or even consider raising it. At the same time, the attention of market participants is focused on the meeting of the US Federal Reserve scheduled for December 18, where the cost of borrowing is likely to decrease, which may increase pressure on the US dollar.An additional driver in the markets was the appointment by Donald Trump of a new US Treasury secretary. He became 62-year-old Scott Bessent, a respected professional with extensive experience in financial management on Wall Street. Introducing his candidacy, Trump stressed that Bessent is not only an outstanding investor, but also a recognized expert in the field of geopolitics and economics. The appointment provoked a positive reaction from experts who are confident that the new head of the Ministry of Finance will be able to ensure stability and prevent abrupt changes in the economic course.Resistance levels: 0.8920, 0.9050.Support levels: 0.8800, 0.8750, 0.8625.USD/CAD: retail sales in Canada strengthen the loonie rateThe USD/CAD pair continues to develop the bullish trend started the day before, trading around 1.4110 and updating the highs since May 2020.One of the factors behind the strengthening of the US currency was the statements of US President-elect Donald Trump, who reiterated plans to impose additional tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China. This step, according to analysts, may slow down the reduction of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and lead to an increase in consumer prices. At the same time, the candidate for the post of US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, known for his cautious approach to economic policy, supported the idea of such measures, which strengthened investors' confidence in the consistency of the new administration.The Canadian dollar, despite the pressure from the US currency, receives support from positive macroeconomic statistics. Thus, retail sales excluding cars increased by 0.9% in September against the expected 0.5%, while the overall figure remained at 0.4%, coinciding with forecasts. Chief Economist of CoStar Group Inc. Carl Gomez noted that the Bank of Canada's policy of lowering interest rates probably helped stabilize the housing market, but a recovery in its activity to previous levels remains unlikely. Most mortgage rates depend on the yield of government bonds, and not directly on the decisions of the regulator. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year government of Canada bonds, a key indicator for long-term rates, remains at 3.5%, despite recent rate cuts to 3.75%.Resistance levels: 1.4145, 1.4200, 1.4250, 1.4300.Support levels: 1.4100, 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3958.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices remain under pressure, continuing the correction within the downtrend and trading just above the 72.00 mark. This dynamic was facilitated by the statements of US President-elect Donald Trump, who announced ambitious plans to reform the country's oil and gas sector.Among Trump's key initiatives is the lifting of restrictions on the issuance of export licenses for new facilities related to liquefied natural gas (LNG). These measures were previously introduced by the Joe Biden administration, and their cancellation is expected to stimulate export growth. Also among the proposals of the future president is a reduction in the time frame for approving permits for oil drilling on federal lands and coastal waters of the United States, which now take up to 258 days. The new administration plans to support the expansion of the country's strategic reserves: currently, oil purchases in the reserve range from 3.0—5.0 million barrels per month, but Republicans consider such volumes insufficient and propose to increase them.In addition, Donald Trump intends to review the influence of the International Energy Agency (IEA), seeking to mitigate environmental requirements and reduce lobbying for renewable energy sources. Analysts suggest that even partial implementation of these initiatives will lead to a significant increase in oil production in the United States and strengthen its export positions. This, in turn, will increase pressure on world prices for "black gold", creating new risks for balancing supply and demand in the market.Resistance levels: 74.00, 77.80.Support levels: 71.50, 68.40.

USD/CHF: reports on falling orders and sales in Switzerland affect the exchange rateThe USD/CHF pair shows multidirectional dynamics, trading near the level of 0.8910. After a significant increase at the end of last week, on Friday, when the US dollar updated local highs since July 16 due to strong macroeconomic data, the instrument opened the current week with a slight gap down.The Swiss industry is experiencing difficulties against the background of declining demand from European partners and the strengthening of the national currency, which negatively affects exports. According to the results of a Swissmechanic study, capacity utilization in small enterprises, providing about 18% of GDP, fell to 81%, the lowest level since January 2021. In the first nine months of this year, sales of manufactured goods decreased by 4.2%, and one in three companies in the sector has already cut staff. Many companies may continue this trend, especially if the new US President Donald Trump fulfills his promises to increase import duties, which will further complicate export operations. Last week, pressure on the franc also intensified due to comments by the head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel. He stressed the regulator's determination to keep inflation within the target range of 0.0–2.0%, which plays an important role in ensuring the stability of the Swiss economy.Investors are waiting for the publication of data on gross domestic product (GDP) and the KOF index of leading indicators for November, which will be released on Friday at 10:00 (GMT+2). Experts predict that GDP growth will remain at 0.7% on a quarterly basis and 1.8% on an annual basis, which may have a restrained effect on the franc exchange rate.Resistance levels: 0.8935, 0.8957, 0.9000, 0.9037.Support levels: 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8827, 0.8800.NZD/USD: Westpac expects the exchange rate to fall to 0.58 USD by the end of the yearDuring the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is trading around 0.5850 after opening with a small positive gap, which followed an active decline at the end of last week. However, the confidence of buyers is gradually weakening, as there are no significant factors in the market that can support the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar. Last week, the instrument reached a one-year low amid increasing concerns from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) about the slowdown in the economic recovery and the potential consequences of the introduction of new trade duties, which Donald Trump plans to implement after taking office as president of the United States. In light of these circumstances, analysts expect that the RBNZ may reduce the interest rate by 50 basis points at once — from the current level of 4.75% to 4.25%. In turn, the specialists of Westpac Banking Corp. The New Zealand dollar is forecast to weaken to $0.58 by the end of the year, and in the most pessimistic scenario — to $ 0.55 in the coming months.Meanwhile, New Zealand's foreign trade data for October showed an increase in exports from $5.01 billion to $5.77 billion, while imports increased from $7.06 billion to $7.31 billion. This led to a slight decrease in the trade deficit — from -9.15 billion to -8.96 billion dollars. However, domestic consumption figures remain weak: retail sales in the third quarter decreased by 0.1% after a decline of 1.2% in the second quarter, and sales excluding cars decreased by 0.8% compared with a previous decline of 1.0%. These data confirm the continued weakness of the consumer sector and the lack of signs of an early recovery in economic activity.Resistance levels: 0.5858, 0.5885, 0.5920, 0.5950.Support levels: 0.5830, 0.5800, 0.5750, 0.5720.AUD/USD: softening of the RBA's rhetoric is forecast for the end of springThe AUD/USD pair shows a moderate correction, remaining within the sideways trend at 0.6523 amid the recovery of the US currency's positions.Analysts at Westpac Banking Corp. They believe that significant changes in the dynamics of the Australian dollar in the near future are unlikely. In their latest note, experts revised forecasts regarding the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): expectations of an interest rate cut, previously scheduled for February or March, have now been shifted to May. This decision is due to steady inflation and a stable situation in the labor market, which give the regulator grounds to keep the current rate at 4.35%. According to experts, a reduction in the cost of borrowing will be possible only with a confident return of inflation to the range of 2.0–3.0%, which is predicted no earlier than the second half of spring.An additional confirmation of this scenario is the statistics on business activity published in November. The index in the manufacturing industry showed a slight increase from 47.3 to 49.4 points, but remained in the contraction zone. In the service sector, on the contrary, the indicators decreased from 51.0 to 49.6 points, and the composite index fell from 50.2 to 49.4 points, reflecting the general slowdown in economic activity. All these data indicate that the RBA will continue to maintain a cautious approach to changing monetary conditions.Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6670.Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6410.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair rolled back from the maximum level of 2710.0 amid increased geopolitical tensions and lower global bond yields. The appointment of Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary, known for his cautious approach to financial policy, has put pressure on the market. Over the week, the yield on key 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell from 4.441% to 4.352%. At the same time, expectations regarding the December meeting of the US Federal Reserve are being adjusted: the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has increased to 56.2% compared with Friday's forecasts of 52.7%.Geopolitical events remain the main driver of the gold price movement. Israel's military actions in Lebanon, as well as the aggravation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, are forcing investors to increase their positions in safe haven assets. This is confirmed by data from the largest commodity exchanges: interest in gold contracts has increased significantly. According to CME, since November 21, the volume of transactions has steadily increased, reaching 456.0 thousand contracts on Friday. Although this figure is lower than the peak value of 602.0 thousand recorded on November 6, it is still significantly higher than the average level of the previous week, which amounted to 310.0–330.0 thousand contracts.Resistance levels: 2713.0, 2791.0.Support levels: 2642.0, 2555.0.

EUR/GBP: recovery after a series of bearish sessionsThe EUR/GBP pair is showing cautious growth, trading around 0.8328, compensating for losses after mostly bearish sentiment, which this week led to the testing of minimum levels since November 15.The stabilization of inflation in the eurozone, thanks to the efforts of the European Central Bank (ECB), opens up new challenges related to weakening domestic demand and economic uncertainty. Investors are looking forward to the publication of November business activity data in Germany and the eurozone. The S&P Global index of business activity in the eurozone services sector is expected to rise from 51.6 to 51.8 points, while the manufacturing index will remain at 46.0 points. A similar trend is forecast in Germany: the services sector is likely to show growth from 51.6 to 51.7 points, while the manufacturing index will remain at 43.0 points. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Gallo, expressed the opinion that the increase in duties on goods by the administration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump would not have a significant impact on the region's inflation forecasts. He stressed the need to continue the ECB's soft monetary policy with an emphasis on "flexibility and pragmatism" to adapt to changing conditions.Against the British background, attention was drawn to the November consumer confidence index from Gfk Group, which rose from -21.0 to -18.0 points, surpassing forecasts of -22.0 points. CBI analyst Ben Jones noted that the US elections, with their unexpected results, continue to restrain consumer activity, although the situation may improve in the next quarter. Additionally, investors are studying statistics on UK government borrowing, which reached 17.4 billion pounds in October, the second highest figure since 1993. In the first seven months of the current tax year, the debt increased to 96.6 billion pounds, which is 1.1 billion more than the same period last year, raising concerns about the fiscal sustainability of the country.Resistance levels: 0.8326, 0.8340, 0.8350, 0.8359.Support levels: 0.8310, 0.8294, 0.8280, 0.8259.AUD/USD: the expectation of statistics from the United States affects the dynamics of the pairThe AUD/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, continuing to form a weakly expressed "bearish" trend, which originated in the middle of this week. Quotes are once again trying to overcome the psychological support level of 0.6500, while the markets are waiting for fresh triggers to appear for movement.Today's macroeconomic statistics from Australia could not significantly affect the dynamics of the instrument. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing industry from S&P Global rose to 49.4 points in November from the previous value of 47.3 points, which indicates a slowdown in the recession. At the same time, the indicator in the services sector from Commonwealth Bank decreased from 51.0 points to 49.6 points, and the composite index decreased to 49.4 points against October's 50.2 points. These data indicate continuing problems in the economy, although growth in the service sector remains an important factor supporting the overall level of activity.The attention of market participants is shifted to the upcoming American data. At 16:45 (GMT+2), business activity indices in the United States will be published, based on surveys of purchasing and supply managers. Forecasts suggest an improvement: the index in the S&P Global services sector may rise from 55.0 points to 55.3 points, and the indicator in the manufacturing sector from 48.5 points to 48.8 points. Already published statistics on the labor market show mixed dynamics: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended November 15 decreased from 219.0 thousand to 213.0 thousand, which is better than expectations of 220.0 thousand. However, the number of repeat applications increased to 1.908 million against 1.872 million, exceeding the forecast of 1.870 million. This highlights the resilience of the labor sector to the current monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. It is noteworthy that the comments of the representatives of the regulator remain diverse. Michelle Bowman, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, noted that inflation, although declining, still remains at a high level, and its slowdown requires a cautious approach to easing monetary policy. This statement adds uncertainty about the next steps of the US financial authorities, which puts pressure on investor sentiment and on the AUD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6500, 0.6536, 0.6570, 0.6600.Support levels: 0.6478, 0.6440, 0.6420, 0.6388.USD/TRY: Lira retains weak prospects for strengtheningIn the morning, the USD/TRY pair is trading at around 34.5047, under pressure from weak macroeconomic data from Turkey and the growth of the US dollar.In November, the consumer confidence index in Turkey fell from 80.6 to 79.8 points, which was the first deterioration in the indicator since June this year. However, the index value has remained below the neutral level of 100.0 points for more than five years, indicating continued pessimism among consumers. Serious reductions were recorded in the construction sector in the third quarter: the total area of facilities allowed for construction decreased by 18.9%, the number of building permits decreased by 18.8%, and apartments by 17.0%. This confirms the weakening of activity in one of the key sectors of the economy.Meanwhile, the US dollar is strengthening, reaching 107.00 in the USDX index. This was facilitated by positive data on the US labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 213.0 thousand, which was lower than both the previous week's figure (219.0 thousand) and analysts' expectations (220.0 thousand). The average value over the past four weeks has decreased from 221.50 thousand to 217.75 thousand, although the total number of repeated requests increased to 1.908 million from 1.872 million. This trend reinforces expectations of continued sustained economic recovery in the United States.Resistance levels: 34.6600, 35.5000.Support levels: 34.3000, 33.4000.USD/CAD: price consolidates inside an expanding patternDuring the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair shows a correction, holding at 1.3982 amid the strengthening of the position of the US currency.According to Statistics Canada (StatsCan), in October, the industrial goods price index rose by 1.2% compared to the previous month, breaking a two-month decline, and increased by 1.1% year-on-year, reaching the highest level since April. Commodity prices showed an increase of 3.8%, while the indicator excluding oil and electricity increased by 3.1% month-on-month and decreased by 2.8% year-on-year. This dynamic supports stable growth in industrial production due to lower costs.The US dollar is strengthening, reaching the level of 107.00 in the USDX index — the highest since the end of autumn last year. The main driver of growth was positive indicators in the labor market: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 219.0 thousand to 213.0 thousand, while the total number of applications increased to 1.908 million people against 1.872 million a week earlier. The average number of applications over the past four weeks has decreased to 217.75 thousand, which was the lowest value since May. The stability of the labor market confirms the likelihood of the continuation of the "dovish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve, since current inflation remains localized in certain sectors, in particular, in real estate. This week, Lisa Cook, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, said that next year the consumer price index could reach 2.2%, which is close to the target 2.0%, confirming the effectiveness of the monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.4020, 1.4190.Support levels: 1.3930, 1.3780.

EUR/TRY: CPI data supports the euroDuring the morning trading on November 21, the EUR/TRY pair shows an upward trend, trading around 37.50, which is 0.3% higher than the level of the previous session.The economic situation in the eurozone remains stable. According to Eurostat, in October, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 2.1% year-on-year, which is in line with analysts' forecasts. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector for November amounted to 51.5 points, which is higher than the previous value of 50.8, indicating a moderate increase in activity. At the last meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) left the key interest rate at 4.0%, emphasizing the need for further monitoring of inflation risks. Retail sales data in the eurozone will be published today at 12:00 (GMT+2); analysts expect an increase of 0.3% month-on-month and 1.2% year-on-year, which may support the euro's position.There is a slowdown in economic growth in Turkey. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, GDP grew by 2.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, which is lower than the previous figure of 5.3% and indicates a decrease in economic activity. Inflation remains high: in October, the consumer price index increased by 1.8% month-on-month and by 43% year-on-year. The Central Bank of Turkey continues to adhere to a tight monetary policy, keeping the key rate at 50% in order to curb inflation. Today at 10:00 (GMT+2), data on the unemployment rate is expected to be published; the indicator is projected to rise from 10.2% to 10.5%, which may put pressure on the Turkish lira.Resistance levels: 38.00, 38.50.Support levels: 37.00, 36.50.USD/CHF: dollar weakness strengthens franc's positionDuring the Asian session on November 21, the USD/CHF pair shows a downward trend, trading around 0.8870, which is 0.3% lower than the level of the previous session.The US dollar is weakening amid the publication of strong economic data that may affect the decisions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) regarding interest rates. According to the US Department of Commerce, retail sales in October increased by 0.8% compared to the previous month, exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.5% growth. In addition, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year in October, which corresponds to the Fed's inflation target. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, noted that inflation is gradually decreasing, and further interest rate cuts are expected in the future. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on applications for unemployment benefits will be published: analysts expect a decrease from 220 thousand to 215 thousand, which may support the dollar's position.The Swiss franc is strengthening against the background of weak economic indicators in the country. According to Swissmem, sales of Swiss industrial products decreased by 4.2% in the first nine months of 2024, while exports decreased by 3.6% due to lower demand in Europe and the strengthening of the franc. In addition, the Swissmechanic survey showed that the business climate index for small manufacturing companies reached its lowest level since January 2021, with almost 75% of companies assessing the current business environment negatively. Today at 10:00 (GMT+2), data on the unemployment rate in Switzerland will be published: it is expected that the indicator will remain at 2.3%, which may support the franc.Resistance levels: 0.8900, 0.8950.Support levels: 0.8850, 0.8800.NZD/USD: inflation met market expectationsDuring the Asian session on November 21, the NZD/USD pair shows a downward trend, trading around 0.5940, which is 0.5% lower than the level of the previous session.The economic situation in New Zealand is showing stability with some signs of slowing growth. According to Statistics New Zealand, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter and 3.5% year-on-year in the third quarter. These figures completely coincided with forecasts, which indicates stability in the inflationary dynamics. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.0%, which is in line with market expectations. However, a decrease in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) to 49.5 points indicates a slight decrease in activity in the sector.Additionally, retail sales data for the third quarter showed an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous period, which is slightly higher than the projected level. At the moment, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has kept its key interest rate at 5.5%, saying that monetary policy is in line with inflation and employment targets. However, given the possible slowdown in the industrial sector, experts suggest that RBNZ may reconsider its position early next year. October retail sales data is expected to be published today at 15:00 (GMT+2). Analysts predict growth of 0.3% on a monthly basis, which may affect the strengthening of the New Zealand currency in the short term.Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6050.Support levels: 0.5900, 0.5850.Platinum market analysisDuring the trading session on November 21, platinum quotes show a downward trend, holding around $960 per troy ounce, which is 1.5% less than in the previous session.According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), global platinum demand is expected to decline by 6% to 7.66 million troy ounces in 2024, after rising by 26% in 2023 to 8.15 million ounces. This is due to a decrease in metal consumption by automakers and other industrial enterprises. At the same time, platinum production in 2024 is projected at 5.55 million ounces, which is 1% more than the previous year. Thus, the shortage of platinum on the market in 2024 may amount to 353 thousand ounces, which is three times less than in 2023.Platinum prices are also influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar, which makes the metal less attractive to investors. In addition, the growth of risk appetite in financial markets and possible trade tariffs from the United States create additional pressure on the value of platinum.Resistance levels: $980, $1000.Support levels: $950, $930.