In the last month of summer, the oil exchange rate is likely to show a correctionIn August, the oil price depends on several important factors - first of all, the recovery of the market in the United States and the new flare-up of the conflict in the Middle East. The Israeli authorities have accused Iran of attacking an oil tanker, and the United States and Great Britain have already promised support to Israel. Against this background, the oil exchange rate moved to growth after a short correction, but it is not known how long this recovery growth will be. We offer a traditional analysis of oil prices.Reducing unemployment in the United StatesIn many ways, the positive movement on the US stock markets has a positive effect on the oil exchange rate: the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices traditionally update historical highs. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the number of applications for unemployment benefits has fallen sharply.During the last week of July, only 385 thousand such appeals were registered, and the total number of recipients of benefits amounted to 3 million people. However, the effect of positive news from the US markets has already been played out, and the dynamics of the oil exchange rate will need new incentives to continue growth.At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from the United States show an increase in the commodity deficit, which increased from $71 billion in May to $75.7 billion in June. This was largely due to a 2.1% increase in imports compared to the previous month, although exports increased by only 0.6%. This is largely due to a reduction in supplies, which in turn restricts production within the United States.There are already reports about how the spread of a new strain of coronavirus can affect the American economy. In particular, as the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, said, the new strain may slow down the recovery of the labor market. This completely contradicts the recent statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who assured analysts that the delta strain is not a risk to the American economy.Positive statistics on the labor market may force the Fed to change its approach to monetary policy and increase rates, as well as curtail the quantitative easing program. First of all, this will lead to a strengthening of the dollar, which in turn will affect the commodities denominated in the US currency. In this case, the oil exchange rate will be influenced by another important negative factor. Moreover, investors will begin to withdraw resources from risky assets, and then the Russian and Chinese stock markets will suffer.Already half of the US states have stopped paying increased unemployment benefits, which on the one hand indicates that there is no need for additional incentives, and on the other hand may mean an increase in demand for fuel. However, in any case, the statistics on the labor market in the United States may not be as positive as it may seem at first glance - the number of jobs outside agriculture, on the contrary, turned out to be less than a year earlier. First of all, this was caused by a large number of dismissals in the field of higher education.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsThe influence of China and RussiaAn increase in oil purchases from China can potentially act as a new incentive for the hydrocarbon market. So, China may soon announce an increase in quotas for the purchase of hydrocarbons. Moreover, it is expected that more oil will be purchased not only by small refineries from China, but also by large Chinese companies.The main seller of oil on the Chinese market is the Arab countries from the Persian Gulf, so first, most likely, prices for Dubai grade oil will rise sharply, and other grades, including the benchmark Brent, will follow it. However, these expectations are contradicted by the increase in the incidence of coronavirus in China - due to lockdowns and restrictive measures, traffic on some of the most important logistics routes is reduced.Moreover, the Chinese authorities have decided to restrict air and rail travel around the country. In the Asian region, the number of infected people has been growing recently. In particular, in Thailand, even new restrictive measures did not help to stop the increase in new cases. Similarly, in Sydney, Australia, the increase in new cases has reached a historic high, and the authorities expect the situation to worsen further.In turn, Russian oil companies are trying to use the OPEC+ deal to get more favorable working conditions inside the country. In particular, they suggested that the government reduce the tax burden on the industry, which in turn will help start the development of hard-to-reach oil. To do this, they proposed to create two new groups of deposits, for which they proposed to reset the tax on mineral extraction.The first group includes areas with the volume of initial reserves of less than 65 million tons and the degree of depletion of less than 1%. The second group includes the deposits of ultra-viscous oil in the Komi Republic. Moreover, the oil companies decided to stimulate the exploration of hard-to-recover reserves. To do this, it is proposed to use a traditional set of tools - tax deductions and reduction of payments for the mineral extraction tax. However, so far the Ministry of Finance is against the initiative, which is not eager to help oil companies and does not plan to change the taxation of the industry until 2023-2024, until the end of the OPEC+ agreement.At the same time, the further deterioration of the pandemic situation in the world may become a deterrent to the growth of oil prices. Recently, in order to combat the spread of a new delta strain of coronavirus, an increasing number of countries have been strengthening restrictive measures on the mobility of the population. Investors are particularly concerned about the situation in China, where domestic air and rail traffic was limited in order to localize outbreaks of the disease, which directly affects the oil exchange rate.Oil price analysisOil futures moved into the negative zone, without reaching the goals of a short-term rebound. These levels are located near the $73.50 and $71.50 marks, which corresponds to the average Bollinger bands on the daily chart. In general, the oil exchange rate is affected by downward pressure, and analysts are increasingly inclined to believe that a correction may occur in the hydrocarbon market in the near future. The support lines are located near the previous lows - around $70.20 and $67.50, according to the technical analysis of oil prices.Read more: What are futures: types, features, advantages and risksIn the first week of August, the dynamics of the oil exchange rate showed a failure-from about $75 to $70 literally from August 2 to 5. The reason for the increase is quite banal - the growth of fuel reserves in the American market, which indicates a decrease in economic activity. According to official data, inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels, while a decrease of 3.9 million barrels was expected. Moreover, analysts are influenced by data on the spread of a new strain of coronavirus in China, the United States and Japan, as well as the associated expectations of new restrictions.The most important factor that positively affects the dynamics of the oil exchange rate remains the growth of tensions in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel on the one hand and Iran and Lebanon on the other threatens the rapid exit of hydrocarbons from the Islamic Republic to foreign markets, as well as generally increases the uncertainty of oil transportation from the Middle East. As a result, literally in one day on August 5, the oil exchange rate recovered to $71 per barrel, and the next day it was already testing the level of $72 per barrel.A new conflict in the Middle East may become a significant factor that is likely to affect the oil price in August. According to Israeli Defense Minister Beni Gantz, his country is ready to start a war against Iran because of a drone strike on an oil tanker. We are talking about the attack on the Mercer Street oil tanker.Officially, the ship belongs to Japan, sails under the flag of Liberia, but it is operated by the Israeli company Zodiac Maritime. According to Gantz, the Islamic Republic has no more than two and a half months to come close to producing nuclear weapons. In this context, the attack on an Israeli tanker becomes part of a large-scale confrontation in the region. If the tension increases, the oil exchange rate may receive additional support.In turn, Israel has already received assistance from its traditional allies - the United States and Great Britain. As British Prime Minister Boris Johnson hastened to say, " Iran must answer for the consequences." In turn, the representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said that the Islamic Republic is ready to protect its security and national interests. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also joined the diplomatic skirmish, saying that Tehran was undoubtedly behind the attack, and the allies would prepare a "collective response" to this attack.Thus, two multidirectional factors: the strengthening of anti-bullying measures and the growing conflict in the Middle East are pushing the trajectory of the oil exchange rate in different directions. If the first factor leads to a reduction in demand, the second one seriously reduces the supply of oil - it is the Middle East conflicts that traditionally push the cost of hydrocarbons up. According to most analysts, the combination of two multidirectional factors can cause the oil exchange rate to fluctuate in a wide range from $68 to $75 per Brent, depending on the news background.Read more: Are the minutes of the Federal Reserve meetings useful for ...
NZD/USD: rising inflation in New Zealand pushes the pair downDuring the Asian session on November 13, the NZD/USD pair shows a downward trend, trading around 0.5970, which is 0.85% lower than the level of the previous session.The economic situation in New Zealand remains tense. As of September 2024, the unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from the previous 4.6%, indicating a slowdown in economic activity. The business confidence index stood at 65.7 points in October, up from 60.9 points in September, but remains below the long-term average. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in September fell to 46.9 points from 45.8 points in August, remaining below the threshold level of 50, indicating a reduction in manufacturing activity. Retail sales in the second quarter of 2024 decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the interest rate from 5.25% to 4.75% in October in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Inflation data for October will be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2); analysts expect the consumer price index (CPI) to increase by 0.6% on a monthly basis and by 2.2% on an annual basis, which may affect further decisions of the regulator.In the United States, economic indicators show mixed results. GDP in the second quarter of 2024 decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. The unemployment rate in September was 4.8%, up from 4.6% in August, which may indicate a weakening of the labor market. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year in September, in line with analysts' expectations. The Federal Reserve System (FRS) left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25% in October, but in its statements indicated a possible tightening of monetary policy in the event of further inflation. Retail sales data for October will be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2); analysts predict an increase of 0.4% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year, which may support the position of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6050.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5900.USD/CHF: the growth of industrial production in Switzerland strengthens the francDuring the Asian session on November 13, the USD/CHF pair shows an upward trend, trading around 0.8753, which is 0.32% higher than the level of the previous session.In Switzerland, economic indicators show moderate growth. GDP in the second quarter of 2024 increased by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, indicating stable economic growth. The unemployment rate in September was 2.3%, which corresponds to the previous month and indicates stability in the labor market. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month and 1.5% year-on-year in October, which is below the target level of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). In October, the SNB left the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%, noting in its statement that the current monetary policy is in line with the economic situation. Industrial production data for September will be published today at 10:00 (GMT+2); analysts expect an increase of 0.5% month-on-month and 2.0% year-on-year, which may affect the position of the Swiss franc.Resistance levels: 0.8780, 0.8800.Support levels: 0.8730, 0.8700.Platinum market analysisDuring the Asian session on November 13, platinum quotes show a downward trend, holding around $990.55 per troy ounce, which is 1.60% lower than the level of the previous session.The economic situation in South Africa, one of the largest platinum producers, remains unstable. According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), production is expected to decrease by 2% in 2024 due to restructuring and staff reductions at enterprises in the region after the fall in prices for palladium and rhodium. This could lead to a 12% reduction in global platinum reserves in 2024. In addition, stocks have already declined by 17% in 2023, reaching a four-year low of 3.62 million ounces. This situation creates prerequisites for a shortage of metal in the market, which can support prices in the medium term.China, the largest consumer of platinum, is experiencing a slowdown in economic growth. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, which is lower than analysts' expectations. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 49.8 points in October, indicating a decrease in manufacturing activity. Reduced demand from the automotive industry, where platinum is used in catalysts, may put pressure on metal prices. Chinese industrial production data for October will be published today at 10:00 (GMT+2); analysts expect an increase of 3.9% year-on-year, which may affect the dynamics of platinum prices.Resistance levels: 1,008.50, 1,020.00.Support levels: 972.15, 960.00.Oil Market analysisDuring the Asian session on November 13, Brent crude oil quotes showed a slight increase, trading around $72.06 per barrel, which is 0.24% higher than the level of the previous session.Price dynamics are influenced by the recent revision by OPEC of the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025. The organization lowered its estimate of demand growth by 107 thousand barrels per day, expecting an increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024. This is due to the slowdown in economic growth in China and other developing countries. Additional pressure on prices is exerted by the strengthening of the US dollar, which makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.On the other hand, the market is supported by concerns about possible supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially in light of recent events related to Iran. In addition, it is expected that the US Federal Reserve may revise its monetary policy towards easing, which could potentially stimulate economic activity and, consequently, energy demand.Resistance levels: $73.50, $74.80.Support levels: $71.00, ...
EUR/CAD: Canadian inflation and oil affect the pair's exchange rateAs of October 17, the EUR/CAD pair is trading near the level of 1.4937 and shows a slight decrease of 0.02% compared to the previous session. Markets remain waiting for key economic publications on both the euro and the Canadian dollar, which gives the pair low volatility and cautious sentiment among traders.The economic situation in the eurozone remains under pressure amid a slowdown in manufacturing activity. In September, the business activity index (PMI) in the eurozone manufacturing sector fell to 43.4 points, reflecting weak business confidence, while in the services sector the indicator was 48.7 points. Forecasts for the upcoming data point to a possible further decline, which reinforces expectations of additional stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB). At the same time, the latest inflation data showed that the core consumer price index (CPI) remained at 2.7%, while the overall figure was 1.8% year-on-year. Experts suggest that a slowdown in inflation may push the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which will be considered at the upcoming meeting.On the other hand, the Canadian economy is showing growth in the energy sector. Oil prices, Canada's main export commodity, remain high, supporting the Canadian dollar. In September, the inflation rate in Canada was 3.8% year-on-year, and the unemployment rate remained at 5.2%. The Bank of Canada is expected to decide at its next meeting to keep the interest rate at 5%, but rising inflation may force the regulator to reconsider its plans. Additionally, the market is waiting for the publication of retail sales data in Canada, which, according to forecasts, may show an increase of 0.4% in September.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.AUD/CHF: the Australian currency is declining amid weak unemployment dataThe AUD/CHF pair at the time of the trading session on October 17 shows a slight decrease and is trading at 0.5940, which is 0.32% less than in the previous session. The pair is under pressure against the background of unfavorable macroeconomic statistics from Australia and stable data on Switzerland.The economic situation in Australia remains tense. The published data on the labor market turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations: the unemployment rate increased from 3.6% to 3.7% in September, while analysts expected it to remain at 3.6%. The number of employed decreased by 9.6 thousand, which also became a negative signal for the economy. In addition, the consumer confidence index decreased by 2.3%, indicating a decrease in confidence in the national economy. These data may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider further monetary easing at the next meeting.From the Swiss side, the economic situation looks more stable. The latest inflation data showed a decrease in the consumer price index from 1.5% to 1.3% year-on-year, which confirmed the downward trend in inflationary pressure. This strengthens the Swiss franc, as the market expects the Swiss National Bank to continue its current monetary policy without significant changes. In addition, Switzerland's external trade balance continues to remain positive, maintaining the national currency at a high level.Resistance levels: 0.5980, 0.6020.Support levels: 0.5900, 0.5860.Copper market analysisAs of October 17, 2024, the price of copper shows moderate growth, correcting after a decrease the day before. Trading opened at $8,000 per tonne and is moving towards $8,080, which is 1.00% higher compared to the previous session.The rise in copper prices is supported by a number of economic factors. First of all, macroeconomic data from China, the world's largest copper consumer, had a positive impact. Thus, industrial production in September increased by 4.5% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.2%. The business activity index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector also showed an increase to 51.2 points, indicating an expansion of activity in the sector. In addition, China announced measures to boost domestic consumption and exports, which supports demand for copper and other commodities. The copper market also faces risks related to the geopolitical situation in South America, especially in Chile, the largest copper producer. Amid protests and possible strikes in the mining sector, there are concerns about the supply of metal to international markets.Resistance levels: 8,100, 8,200.Support levels: 7,950, 7,900.Oil market analysisAt the October 17 trading session, Brent crude oil is trading with upward dynamics, again breaking the $90 per barrel mark, which is 0.5% higher compared to the last session. The main factors supporting growth remain concerns about supply constraints due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, where tensions in the sector have escalated, including the most important transport hubs in the Persian Gulf region.The economic situation in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, adds to the uncertainty in the market. According to the latest EIA report released on October 8, crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.6 million barrels, reflecting steady domestic demand and affecting the prospects for price growth. At the same time, expectations for global economic growth remain mixed, as data from China show a slowdown in economic activity: The country's GDP grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, below forecasts, which also prompted a revision of oil forecasts. In particular, Barclays lowered its forecast for Brent to $93 per barrel for 2024, citing declining demand in both China and the United States.Resistance levels: $75.50, $76.80.Support levels: $73.00, ...
EUR/GBP: minutes of the ECB meeting in the focus of investors' attentionThe EUR/GBP pair is showing a moderate recovery, regaining positions after the "bearish" dynamics observed at the beginning of the week. The exchange rate is testing the 0.8380 level for an upward breakout, while traders are evaluating fresh macroeconomic data from the eurozone and the UK.In Germany, the consumer price index for September remained at 1.6% year-on-year, while the monthly indicator remained unchanged, fixed at 0.0%. The harmonized CPI index increased by 1.8% year-on-year, although it decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis. Investors are also analyzing the minutes of the September meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), where a reduction in inflationary pressure was discussed. Most ECB representatives called for further easing of monetary policy, despite the fact that inflation remains noticeable. At the same time, experts fear a possible slowdown in economic growth and admit that inflation may remain below the target level of 2.0% for a long time. The market expects that the ECB may cut rates twice more by the end of the year.The economic situation in the UK is also of interest. The country's GDP increased by 0.2% in August after stagnating in the previous month, while industrial production fell by 1.6% year-on-year, exceeding the projected -0.5%. At the same time, the monthly growth was 0.5%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The manufacturing sector showed a decrease of 0.3% compared to -2.0% in July, while monthly growth was 1.1%. Business activity in the services sector slowed to 0.1% in August, against 0.6% in July, which was below forecasts of 0.3%.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8410, 0.8433.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8350, 0.8338, 0.8326.USD/TRY: analysts predict a rate cut in JanuaryIn the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows a recovery after the unstable dynamics of this week, again testing the 34.2800 mark for an upward breakdown and updating the highs from August 28. The pair's movement is due to the publication of inflation data in the United States, which supported the American currency.Experts interviewed by Reuters suggest that the Central Bank of Turkey will change its plans to ease monetary policy. Out of ten respondents, six believe that the rate cut from the current 50.00% will take place in December, while four predict that it will happen in January. Most analysts expect an initial decrease of 250 basis points (to 47.50%), and one of the experts suggests a reduction of 500 basis points at once. These forecasts are in line with the expectations of economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Industrial production data for August will be published today, October 11, in Turkey at 10:00 (GMT+2). The indicator is projected to grow by 2.5% compared to the previous month, which may strengthen the lira against the background of positive economic signals. At 12:00 (GMT+2), employment data will also be released, which will help assess the overall state of the labor market in Turkey and may affect expectations for inflation and the future policy of the Central Bank. In addition, tomorrow, October 12, at 11:00 (GMT+2), a report on Turkey's current account balance for August is expected to be published, which, according to forecasts, will show a deficit of $3.5 billion. This event may put pressure on the Turkish lira if the actual data exceed expectations, which indicates an increase in foreign economic risks for the country.Resistance levels: 34.3000, 34.3500, 34.4091, 34.5000.Support levels: 34.2325, 34.1800, 34.0939, 34.0000.USD/CHF: the decline in US inflation turned out to be weaker than expectedThe USD/CHF pair is at 0.8571 and shows potential for further growth, while the Swiss franc remains one of the most stable currencies among developed economies, thanks to stable macroeconomic indicators.The Swiss National Bank, according to a statement by its vice-chairman Antoine Martin, aims to continue reducing interest rates until the end of the year. Martin noted that key inflation and economic growth targets have been achieved, which allows the regulator to consider the possibility of another reduction by 25 basis points. This year, the cost of borrowing has already been adjusted three times, and in September 2024, the consumer price index reached the lowest level in the last three years — 0.8%. According to Martin, in the long term, the bank intends to return to negative interest rates, which, as before, will be an important incentive to attract investments into the economy.At the same time, the US dollar is at 102.60 on the USDX index, which is the highest since mid-August. A decrease in inflation in the United States from 2.5% to 2.4% in annual terms, while an increase in the basic consumer price index to 3.3% did not put significant pressure on the dollar. This dynamic may signal a further reduction in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve, but with minimal changes — by 25 basis points. Investors expect the Fed to make two such cuts by the end of the year, but San Francisco Fed Governor Mary Daley noted that the final decision would depend on incoming data, and the pace of adjustments could be adjusted.Resistance levels: 0.8610, 0.8750.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8400.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices are showing mixed dynamics, remaining around the $75.00 per barrel mark. In the previous session, the instrument showed a noticeable increase, largely due to the publication of US inflation data for September.A significant factor supporting the quotes is the high demand for fuel in the United States, which increased against the background of a major hurricane that struck the state of Florida. In response to the approaching disaster, many oil companies have taken precautions by closing some platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. For example, Chevron Corp. It stopped the operation of one of its drilling rigs, which produced about 65 thousand barrels of oil per day.Geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide additional support for oil. Recall that on October 1, Iran fired more than 180 missiles in the direction of Israel, which was in response to the Israeli Defense Forces strikes on Lebanon, which killed one of the leaders of the Hezbollah group. These events raise concerns in the market about the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which is a strategic route for oil transportation: up to 21% of the world's daily oil consumption passes through it.Resistance levels: 75.00, 76.00, 77.00, 78.00.Support levels: 74.00, 73.00, 72.17, ...
EUR/CAD: euro is under pressure due to weak economic indicatorsThe EUR/CAD pair is trading around 1.5008 as of October 10, showing a slight increase of 0.13% compared to the previous session. The pair is trying to stay above the 1.5000 level, despite some uncertainty in the economic performance of both countries and global currency markets.The economic situation in the eurozone remains under pressure, as data from Germany showed a 0.8% decline in industrial production in August. In addition, the business activity index (PMI) in the eurozone services sector also fell to 47.4 points, which signals a slowdown in economic activity. The European Central Bank, in turn, continues to support a tighter monetary policy, although recent statements by ECB members have signaled the possibility of suspending rate hikes, which causes concern among investors.On the other hand, the Canadian economy is also facing challenges. Last week, employment data showed a 0.4% increase in the number of jobs, which exceeded expectations. However, wage growth remains at 3.8% year-on-year, which may strengthen inflation expectations and push the Bank of Canada to further tighten monetary policy. The Canadian dollar has not yet received significant support, which keeps the EUR/CAD pair relatively stable.Resistance levels: 1.5070, 1.5100.Support levels: 1.4950, 1.4900.USDX: dollar is developing a short-term bullish trendIn the morning, the USDX index holds at 102.93, maintaining a strong short-term "bullish" trend, which contributes to the renewal of local highs recorded on August 16.The growth of the index is supported by revised expectations regarding the pace of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Against the background of the expected monetary policy adjustments of other leading central banks, this creates a competitive advantage for the US dollar. The attention of market participants was focused on the recently published minutes of the September FOMC meeting. Earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the importance of a cautious approach to lowering rates, which reinforced expectations of a smoother reduction. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut of -25 basis points in November is estimated at about 90.0%. As for the December meeting, analysts also forecast a decrease of 25 basis points, but forecasts remain less certain. The latest data on inflation in the United States, measured through the index of personal consumer spending, shows that in August the annual inflation rate was 2.2%, while the base indicator, excluding energy and food products, reached 2.7%. Labor market data also indicate some weakening: the average wage growth in the non-agricultural sector in July and August was lower than in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.Resistance levels: 102.75, 103.00, 103.30, 103.60.Support levels: 102.45, 102.23, 102.00, 101.67.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is trading around 30.61 as of October 10, which is 0.43% higher compared to the previous session, reflecting a slight increase. Support is observed against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, which usually has a positive impact on dollar-denominated metals, including silver.The economic situation in the United States remains in the focus of investors' attention. In particular, inflation data (CPI) for September is expected to be published today, which may significantly affect the Fed's interest rate decisions and, accordingly, the value of silver. The consumer price index is expected to slow down, however, if the actual data turns out to be higher than forecast, this may strengthen expectations of further rate hikes and put pressure on silver. In addition, the recent decline in Chinese incentives has had an impact on industrial metals, limiting their growth, including silver, which remains in the range of $30.3–$30.6 per ounce. Tomorrow, October 11, China will present a report on the trade balance for September. Given that China is one of the largest consumers of industrial metals, such data may affect the mood in the silver market. Export growth is forecast, which could increase demand for metals and support the price of silver, especially against the background of China's recent efforts to stimulate domestic demand and strengthen the economy.Resistance levels: 30.50, 30.77, 31.15, 31.56.Support levels: 30.50, 30.00, 29.73, 29.35.Oil market analysisWTI crude oil is trading at about $74.40 per barrel as of October 10, showing stable growth against the background of supportive demand factors. The key driver of price movement remains a decrease in gasoline inventories in the United States, which caused positive expectations and led to higher prices. Gasoline inventories decreased by 6.3 million barrels during the week, indicating high demand and/or reduced supply, supporting oil price growth in the short term.Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released an updated forecast according to which global oil demand will continue to grow and will amount to about 104.3 million barrels per day by 2025. The agency's current report highlights that demand growth is driven by a recovery in economic activity and significant consumption in non-OECD countries, which is likely to support oil prices over the coming months.Resistance levels: $75.65 and $76.30.Support levels: $73.70 and ...
OPEC+ is markedly reducing oil production - in fact, the exporting countries will pump about 1 million barrels less per day. We have written earlier on why this is so.As a result, supply at the market has become lower, so prices have gone up and are approaching $100 per barrel again.What will the U.S. do after the OPEC+ statement?The coming energy crisis and the high inflation it causes are scaring the whole world, but it's the States that are worried the most right now:expensive oil means expensive fuel;it's causing prices of almost all commodities to rise;inflation is going up - the Fed keeps tightening policy;high key interest rates are pushing the U.S. closer to recession;in addition, high fuel prices can cause social discontent.To prevent this, the U.S. is trying to influence the largest oil producers and keep prices down. Otherwise, the Democrats will most likely not win the congressional elections. They are due in a month.The U.S. started to prepare in advance: President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia this summer and persuaded the U.S. to bring down oil prices. But it did not work out very well: OPEC acts in its own way and does not want to listen to Americans. As a result, the failed negotiations with the Saudis have further diminished the credibility of Biden and the Democrats' ability to influence oil, inflation and economic stability in the United States.However, the Biden administration is not giving up; they have a few more options - rather radical ones - on how to lower oil prices.Additional Oil ReleaseThe safest, though least effective, option is to further draw oil from strategic U.S. storage facilities. In response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 10 million barrels of oil, even as storage reserves are depleted.That would be all well and good, but the announcement had little or no effect on oil prices, especially compared to the previous similar decision to release 180 million barrels to the market. No wonder: the volumes are not comparable.In addition, since U.S. storage reserves are running out, there is a risk that they will not be enough for a rainy day: in case of sharp reductions in domestic production (for example, during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico) or imports (if OPEC+ countries reduce exports).Reducing military aid to the ArabsDemocrats have drafted a "Tense Partnership" bill in response to OPEC+ and specifically the alliance's leaders, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They are accused of "a hostile act against the United States" and "siding with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine."As revenge, the U.S. could withdraw its troops from these countries and stop supplying weapons and other military aid to fight neighboring states and terrorists. This includes protecting oil infrastructure from attack.This option also has disadvantages: without U.S. military support in these countries, there could be problems that would inevitably affect the global oil supply. After all, if military actions or terrorist attacks affect the oil fields or storage facilities of Saudi Aramco, oil will cost even more, and such attacks occur quite often.So even if the Saudis and the UAE will not reduce exports in response to the withdrawal of troops and reduction of arms supply, there is a good chance that sooner or later the fighting will make prices go up.In addition, Saudi Arabia has already planned to prepare for a possible conflict with the United States. For example, in the spring the Saudis said they were going to explore ways to move away from the petrodollar - that is, not to use bucks in the black gold trade. In this case, the demand for the dollar could fall dramatically, especially if other oil-exporting countries do the same.NOPEC: Conflict with OPEC+Amid disagreements with OPEC, the U.S. may return to the "oil production and export cartel law," NOPEC, to have more leverage on oil exporters.In this case, U.S. courts will be able to consider antitrust suits against OPEC+ and in general against countries involved in cartel collusion in the oil market. Under the decision of their own courts, the U.S. will be able to impose sanctions, confiscate property of these countries and put pressure on them in other ways. At the same time, the U.S. itself will indicate what is legal and what is not, thus assessing any actions of the countries that regulate oil production and prices.This option also has a disadvantage: sanctions on exporters would also hit the U.S. itself. If oil prices become lower, the U.S. oil industry will also be hard hit: domestic production will decrease and it will have to import more. And since the market is competitive, and the U.S. in this case will be "enemies of OPEC +", they will have to buy oil more expensive.So, even if the U.S. takes a drastic step - provoking a conflict with Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or starting a sanctions war with OPEC+ - all this will have a negative impact on themselves.Can't sanctions be lifted on Venezuela?As we can see, the U.S. has almost no normal options left to influence the oil market. Nevertheless, the U.S. says it is not going to remove sanctions from Venezuela yet, despite the fact that this would help get more oil on the market and lower oil prices. We may see some new rhetoric in this regard, but no change for now.The Iran deal has also been stalled so far: there is no news or movement on it. Although it is possible that disagreements with the Saudis may attract the U.S. to support Iran, because these are the two sides of the Arab conflict.On the one hand, Iranian oil would help to increase supply, but there is a nuance here as well: the reserves in this country are not grandiose, moreover, most of the oil is already exported in circumvention of sanctions.So what to do with Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2022?If we discard all of the above options, then all we have to do is sit back and watch oil go up in price. The outlook is also bad: even if the world starts a recession and the demand for oil decreases, OPEC+ is already reducing production and adjusting to negative expectations, and also the supply from Russia may decrease if the embargo comes into force.And if that's the case, U.S. inflation will be high. And given the strong labor market, the Fed may raise the rate even more than 1.25% by the end of the year, and it is not certain that it will slow down next year as well. If rates remain high for a long time, the risk of recession in the U.S. is very high, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will have no fuel for growth. As a result, the economy will have a hard time: liquidity is scarce.If the U.S. starts to act sharply, the dollar is at risk: the "oil" countries can give it up to reduce dependence on the United States. But if the U.S. does nothing, tightening Fed policy will keep the dollar very strong - though at the cost of high inflation and recession. 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In 2019, the "sub-sanctioned" Iran began to increase oil supplies in circumvention of sanctions. Mostly tankers went to China and the Mediterranean: Syria and Turkey. And by the beginning of 2022, the fleet for transporting sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil had tripled. It accounted for approximately 400 million barrels per year. And such a "ghost armada" successfully undermines the business of transport companies.Why did Iranian tankers get such a name?Last year, The Mail on Sunday reported: 123 Iranian vessels circumvent sanctions on oil trade. They change their location to GPS and create the appearance that they are anchored at sea, but at this time they are loading/unloading at the port. They also actively forge documents, use flags of different countries, disable identification systems and use front companies. Oil is often loaded onto several vessels and mixed before reaching its destination. This is also the case with "toxic" Russian oil.At the same time, Iran has a whole "underground" financial system for trade bypassing sanctions, writes the WSJ. It includes accounts in foreign banks, intermediary companies outside the country and firms that coordinate prohibited trade. The annual turnover is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.And Iranian banks attract affiliated firms to manage trade under sanctions. They register "daughters" outside the country, become trusted for Iranian traders, and then trade with foreign buyers of Iranian oil in foreign currency through accounts in foreign banks.Will the "Iranian Armada" help Russia?She is already helping her to circumvent sanctions, writes the Daily Mail. The international non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) accuses the Iranian navy of cooperating with Russian oil companies. Allegedly, Russian oilmen are using "Tehran's black market vessels" to circumvent the export ban. And the US, the EU and the UK are even calling for the formation of a team of "ghostbusters".At least 5 Iranian "ghost armadas" are transporting oil from Russia to China and India, according to UANI. And recently, the WSJ reported that Zamanoil from the UAE was linking Iranian and Russian oil workers. The US Treasury accused her of working with the Russian government and Rosneft on the supply of Iranian oil to Europe.However, at the end of March, Iran denied a "secret offer from Russia" to help it circumvent sanctions in exchange for support in concluding a nuclear deal. And in May, he noted that he could not be a competitor of Russia in the global oil and gas market. The country has its own regular customers, and Iran sells the maximum amount of oil.So officially, Iran does not seem to be planning to use its "army of ghosts" to help for the benefit of Russia, despite the fact that these countries have "converged" before. But then there was no question of an embargo on Russian oil and there was no ban on ship insurance. In the new reality, the actions of the "ghost armada" are quite difficult to ...
At the morning trading on Tuesday, oil prices are declining. By 7.42 GMT, Brent oil fell to 72 dollars 85 cents per barrel, or by 0.05% compared to the closing price of trading the day before. The price of WTI oil fell to 71 dollars 22 cents per barrel, or 0.06%. Pressure on oil prices is exerted by information about the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in Asian countries. In this region, there is an increase in the number of infections with a new strain of coronavirus infection "delta". The authorities of a number of Asian countries were forced to tighten restrictive measures, including on movement. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank Of Australia note that the spread of the delta strain around the world will become a serious threat to the recovery of oil demand. Mobility restrictions are already being observed in some parts of the Asian region. This is the reason for the fall in oil demand. More than 60% of the world's oil consumption is accounted for by ...