What is OPEC and what are its functions?We all know about such raw materials as oil and the products that are produced from it. At the same time, everyone knows perfectly well that the extraction of black gold is carried out from the bowels of the earth. There are quite a small number of oil-producing countries on the whole Earth, the association of most of which is called OPEC. In this article, we will learn the history of the creation of the union, its impact on the shares of OPEC oil companies, the benefits of the cartel itself, the impact of OPEC on the stock market, what is the OPEC oil reserve, as well as where to find a live chart of OPEC oil prices and OPEC stock prices.OPECOPEC is an association of countries that export oil around the world. Structurally, OPEC is a cartel, that is, a community of participants who coordinate actions and strategies.The organization itself was founded as a result of the Baghdad Conference held from September 10 to 14, 1960.The founding countries were:Saudi Arabia;Iran;Iraq;Kuwait;Venezuela.At the moment, about 80% of the planet's oil reserves are located on the territory of the OPEC countries in total. In the field of production, this value reaches 40%, while global oil exports consist of OPEC supplies for half.Most of the OPEC members are relatively poor states, but as a single organization, they all have a serious impact on the price of oil and the world economy and politics. Saudi Arabia occupies a special position in OPEC.HistoryUntil the mid-1950s, oil was relatively inexpensive. Although it was a product of strategic importance, however, it did not have such importance as it is now. The main competitor of oil was coal, and the consumption of black gold was incomparably lower.Until the early 60s, the oil trade around the world was significantly controlled by 7 Oil companies. For the convenience of coordination, these companies created an international oil cartel, whose goal was to keep in the range of $1.5-3. At the same time, the most numerous oil deposits and the best conditions for its production were in the third world countries. At that time, these states had long wanted to overthrow the dictate of international corporations and fully earn on exports.On the verge of independenceThe OPEC member countries were dependent states about 50 years ago, and therefore they tried to get rid of this exploitation in various ways. This factor has contributed to the rapprochement of these States and their interests. However, none of these countries could defeat the Western states on their own. For example: in 1951, Iran tried to nationalize the Anglo-Iranian oil produced at that time, but was immediately subjected to crazy economic pressure from the United Kingdom, the United States and the International Oil Cartel.The purpose of creating OPECAt the time when the first composition of OPEC was formed, a surplus of sold oil was formed on the world market. This surplus was formed largely due to the active development of large oil fields in the Middle East. In addition, the USSR joined the world trade in black gold, which doubled the volume of production for the period from 1955 to 1960. This led to increased competition in the raw materials market, which, as a result, ensured a constant decline in prices.Thus, the creation of OPEC was primarily necessary for effective coordination and prevention of a decrease in prices for oil products. Since the world market was overflowing with oil in the 60s, OPEC's initial task was to apply oil production restrictions to stabilize prices.The first stepsBack in 1949, at the initiative of Venezuela, there was a rapprochement of the oil-producing countries. This state made contact with the powers of the Middle East and offered to come up with a way of mutually beneficial cooperation. However, this idea was not crowned with success, since the Arab partners did not yet have sufficient independence. Moreover, they retained the power of monarchs, who were not particularly willing to engage in dialogue.In 1959, oil corporations lowered the price of raw materials, which caused Venezuela to lose a huge amount of money at that time - $140 million. This case led to the unification of the oil exporting countries, during which the first Arab oil Congress was held in Cairo. The participants of the congress demanded that the oil companies must agree on actions with the leadership of the oil-producing powers before making any decision on the price of raw materials. In addition, it was proposed to create a special commission on oil issues.BackgroundBefore getting acquainted with the composition of OPEC, we note that the first signs of the emergence of the cartel appeared back in the 1930s at the time when the development of oil fields began in the Middle East. One of the first oil-bearing sources was Baghdad. In 1934, production began in Bahrain, in 1936 - in Kuwait, in 1938 - in Saudi Arabia, and after 1945 - in other countries.Read more: Bulls and bears, as well as other animals on the stock exchangeSince these powers did not have their own finances and human resources for oil production, emigrants were attracted to the development of mineral resources. The leader in this issue was five companies from the United States: Exxon Mobil, Texaco, Mobil Oil, Standard Oil Company of California, Gulf Oil. Later, the British "British Petroleum" joined the Americans.Very soon, the arrogance of these companies increased so much that the requirements of the laws of certain countries were simply ignored. In addition, the British and Americans took control of the natural resources and activities of countries with oil-rich lands. In 1960, thanks to the creation of OPEC, the countries of the Middle East were finally able to resist foreign oil giants.It is interesting that in most oil-producing countries, this type of activity is the main source of attracting foreign currency. Due to the extremely backward economic structure, the foreign trade transactions of these states are based only on oil. For example: in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Libya, the share occupied by petroleum products in exports is 100%. In Iraq, this value is 99%, in Qatar-98%, in Kuwait, Iran, Nigeria-93%, in Algeria - 85%, in Gabon - 77%, and in Indonesia - 69%.New playerAfter the creation of the cartel, seven more organizations joined the original five organizations. Thus, their number has expanded to 12. All OPEC member states have achieved independent control over their natural resources and their exploitation, taking into account only national interests. On September 1, 1965, OPEC found its Secretariat in Vienna.How it functionsDuring all this time, the composition of OPEC has changed several times. Nevertheless, the main organs remain the same:The ConferenceThe CouncilSecretariatThe Conference is a body that has a great influence. It is headed by the General Secretary. Meetings of the heads of energy ministries and other representatives of states are held twice a year within the framework of the conference. However, the main task of these negotiations is always to determine the state of the world oil market. Moreover, OPEC members are developing a plan to maintain stability in the market. Special attention is paid to the forecasts of the future situation in the world of oil and oil products.It should be noted that the organization, consisting of 12 states, owned most of the oil fields around the world. In the 1990s, Gabon left the organization, and Ecuador independently suspended its membership until the fall of 2007. Russia became an observer of the organization in 1998.OPEC basketThe cartel has adopted such a term as the OPEC basket. In short, this expression means the arithmetic average of the prices of oil grades produced in the member countries of the association. Today, OPEC members pay attention not only to the cost of a single variety, but also to the price of the entire OPEC basket. If we compare the graph of the oil basket and the graph of the share prices of OPEC oil companies, we will notice a correlation.Here is the full list of OPEC member countries:AlgeriaIranAngolaKuwaitIraqGabonEcuadorLibyaNigeriaQatarEquatorial GuineaSaudi ArabiaThe average value of the oil price of these countries is the basket.Consequences of the OPEC organizationOver time, the demand for oil increased, and the OPEC member countries carried out several coordinated actions. For example, the Arab participants established an oil embargo of Western countries in the 70s because of their support for Israel. In response, the price of oil on the world market soared by 400%: from $3 to $12. At the peak of demand-in the summer of 2008, a barrel of oil was already worth $140.73.What is OPEC+ and what is the difference from OPECOPEC+ is an association of countries that are not members of OPEC, but cooperate with it on issues of oil production and export. OPEC+ is less organized, but still has large oil reserves and has influence on the world market.OPEC+ appeared in 2016 against the background of dissatisfaction with the activities of OPEC by major oil exporters, and now the price of OPEC oil is currently determined by OPEC+.Both in OPEC and in OPEC+, no country is subordinate to another, although there is an unspoken influence. To present the current state of affairs in the oil market, let's get acquainted with the list of the main countries producing and exporting oil.Which countries are members of OPEC+?OPEC+ includes:Azerbaijan;Bahrain;Brunei;Kazakhstan;Malaysia;Mexico;Oman;Russia;Sudan;South Sudan.Statistics of countries on the level of oil productionThis was the state of the distribution of world oil production by in 2020:USA – 15.8%;Russia – 13.5%;Saudi Arabia – 12.1%;Canada – 5.7%;Iraq – 5.6%;China – 4.8%;United Arab Emirates – 4.4%;Brazil – 3.8%;Kuwait – 3.6%;Iran-2.5%;Venezuela – 2.8%;Mexico – 3.3%;Nigeria – 2.3%;Norway – 2.1;Angola – 2.0%.The share of other countries is smaller, as a result of which, if necessary, they unite with the leaders. This list clearly demonstrates that the OPEC+ member countries are far from inferior to the OPEC member countries, which forces both associations to seek compromises and negotiate.You can always find out the schedule of OPEC oil prices, OPEC+ and the schedule of prices for shares of OPEC oil companies here.Oil production in the Persian GulfThe main difference is the cost and transportation of raw materials. This allows Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries of the Persian Gulf to be in the best conditions. Simply put, in the Persian Gulf:Oil usually lies shallow and gushes, that is, it does not require complex pumping equipment;Raw materials are extracted in the conditions of the so-called "eternal summer". There is simply no risk of freezing of wells.The ports are located in close proximity to the production sites. The cost of pipelines is minimal.The cost of oil production is from $8.5 to $12.6.The average break-even price, taking into account transport, taxes, etc. - from <$10 to $22.USA and CanadaAnd how are things with the United States and Canada? Most of the production in the United States is shale oil. This is a completely different method of production, which is very different from production in Russia, Arabia, and other countries. Here, too, briefly:Shale oil is more expensive and it is not always profitable to extract it: at the world price of about $50/barrel of Brent grade.Nevertheless, it is easier to stop shale production in the event of a fall in prices, as well as to resume with an increase.Companies producing shale oil in the United States and Canada are able to protect themselves with financial instruments, that is, they are insured by banks against losses when prices fall.The average break-even price of oil in the United States is $40-49.Why is the US not a member of OPEC or OPEC+?There is always some tension in relations between oil-producing countries. The first reason is different interests and conditions; the other reason is economic and political moments that are unique for each state separately. The United States failed to fit into the format of relations and, with high oil prices, occupied a large niche in the oil market.Another nuance: US companies, in accordance with American law, cannot participate in cartels, since the state authorities simply do not have the right to dictate the volume of production and the level of value to them. This made it difficult for America to partner with other states.How OPEC news affects the world and the economyTo begin with, we note that OPEC news is published regularly: OPEC shares are rising or falling, the cartel calls for reducing oil production or, conversely, increasing it. All these information flows are reflected in the share price of OPEC oil companies and on the charts of OPEC oil prices. The association is acutely reacting to OPEC's own oil reserves in storage, which is seasonal due to uneven oil use and weather conditions.Recently, the number of drilling platforms producing oil in the United States has been growing at a record high and already stands at 387 units. The increase in the cost of oil has a positive effect on the budget and the share price of oil companies. This attracts additional investments and stock market participants for trading, which causes the growth of shares of OPEC oil companies. Negative news and expectations put pressure on the share price of oil companies, which often seriously affects the state of the entire ...
AUD/USD: pair has approached the support zone of 0.6489–0.6447During the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is approaching the important support zone of 0.6489–0.6447 against the background of American statistics.Last week was marked by the publication of inflation data in the United States, which contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar in the market. The US consumer price index in March showed a monthly increase of 0.4%, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.3%, and the annual index was 3.5%, also higher than the predicted 3.4%. The producer price index increased by 2.1% year-on-year, from the previous 1.6%, although analysts expected an increase to 2.2%, while the monthly index decreased from 0.6% to 0.2%, ahead of forecasts of 0.3%. The core inflation rate rose from 2.1% to 2.4%, while the forecast was 2.3%. These data have increased doubts about the Federal Reserve's willingness to cut the rate by 25 basis points in June.The Australian economy also showed weak results: the number of construction permits issued fell by 1.9% monthly, which is in line with forecasts, while the previous figure was revised from -1.0% to -2.5%.Resistance levels: 0.6629, 0.6657, 0.6859.Support levels: 0.6489, 0.6447, 0.6353, 0.6285.Gold market analysisThe price of gold has stabilized around the level of 2350.00. Last week, gold reached a historic high, rising to the level of 2430.00, however, the bulls failed to hold this position, and many traders decided to realize the accumulated profits.The rise in gold prices continues to be supported by geopolitical instability and forecasts for rate cuts by the world's largest central banks. The European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates as early as June, while the US Federal Reserve is likely to ease monetary policy later, with the first rate cut of 25 basis points expected in September.The latest macroeconomic data from the United States, published on April 12, increased pressure on the US dollar. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell from 79.4 to 77.9 points in April, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 79.0 points. The March import price index increased by 0.4%, accelerating by 0.1% compared to February, and on an annual basis the indicator also increased by 0.4% after a noticeable decrease of 0.8% a month earlier. Today, traders will closely monitor the March retail sales statistics in the United States, growth is expected to slow to 0.3% from February figures. The April index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will also be published, an improvement from -20.9 to -9.0 points is projected.Resistance levels: 2375.00, 2400.00, 2431.44, 2450.00.Support levels: 2353.79, 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00.Cryptocurrency market analysisThe price dynamics of bitcoin tried to rise, breaking the 72000.00 level, but by the end of the week it fell sharply, losing about 14.5% of its value due to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Over the weekend, Iran conducted missile strikes against Israel, which led to investor fears about the possible outbreak of a large-scale military conflict, which, in turn, contributed to the reorientation of investments in defensive assets such as gold and the US dollar. This downward trend affected not only Bitcoin, but also the wide cryptocurrency market, where in a few days there were liquidations of open positions totaling about $2.5 billion. In addition, the pressure on digital assets was influenced by monetary policy, as the chances of continued high interest rates by the US Federal Reserve increased amid renewed inflationary pressures.These events lowered the price of Bitcoin to a six-week low of 60400.00, after which its partial recovery began. Traders are returning to the market, hoping that there will be no further escalation of the Iranian-Israeli conflict, according to representatives of American diplomacy. In this context, a possible resumption of growth of the main cryptocurrency assets, supported by the expectation of an upcoming halving in the Bitcoin network, seems quite likely in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 68750.00, 71875.00, 75000.00.Support levels: 62500.00, 59375.00, 56250.00.Crude Oil market analysisAfter rising to 92.42 on Friday, Brent crude oil quotes are experiencing a correction to 89.85 amid reports that the Iranian attack on Sunday caused minimal damage to Israel's infrastructure.Last week, after aggressive statements by Iranian leaders, the price of oil exceeded 92.00, as market participants feared the expansion of the armed conflict beyond the region. On Sunday, more than 300 rockets and drones were fired at Israel, most of which were successfully shot down by the Iron Dome air defense system. Mohammad Bagheri, the head of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, said that the "True Promise" mission has been completed and no further attacks are planned. According to him, Iran adheres to the principles of the UN Charter and is not interested in escalating the conflict. Against this background, the quotes of Brent Crude Oil moved to a decrease.The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains difficult, which may lead to high volatility in the oil market in the coming months. Given that Iran is a significant oil producer in OPEC with production of more than 3 million barrels per day, the risks of supply interruption associated with sanctions and potential retaliatory actions by Israel contribute to the fact that the current price decline is rather corrective.Resistance levels: 91.95, 93.79, 96.22.Support levels: 89.10, 87.60, ...
EUR/GBP: the interest rate of the European Central Bank remained at 4.50%The euro is at low levels compared to most major currencies, with the exception of the US dollar, while the EUR/GBP pair shows a corrective movement in morning trading, settling at 0.8541.At yesterday's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), officials, as expected, left the main monetary rates unchanged (the main rate is 4.50%, the marginal rate is 4.75%, the deposit rate is 4.00%) and expressed readiness to reduce them if inflationary pressure decreases. Regulators confirmed that the current slowdown in consumer price growth is in line with medium-term expectations, due to lower prices for food and household goods, but did not specify the timing of a possible change in interest rates. It also announced plans to complete the reinvestment program for emergency asset purchases due to COVID-19 by the end of the year and significantly reduce the asset purchase program. The reduction of the emergency procurement program is taking place at a rate of 7.5 billion euros per month, which will allow it to be completed by the end of November or December.UK economic growth remains weak: in February, GDP growth was, as expected, only 0.1%, which is lower than the previous 0.3%, and this led to a decrease in annual growth to -0.2%. Among the main factors of such dynamics are industrial production, which increased by 1.1%, improving the annual rate to 1.4%, and the construction sector, where a decrease of 1.9% on a monthly basis and 2.0% year-on-year was recorded.Resistance levels: 0.8560, 0.8600.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8480.USD/TRY: Investors tend to take profits after a week of growthThe USD/TRY currency pair shows ambiguous trends, holding near the level of 32.3165. Traders are refraining from opening new positions on Friday due to the expectation of a limited amount of macroeconomic data from the United States, as well as due to the profit-taking mood after moderate growth during the week. Earlier, the US dollar was helped by inflation data, which increased investors' doubts about the imminent reduction of the US Federal Reserve interest rate by 25 basis points in June.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to economic difficulties in the country. Despite the efforts of monetary authorities and a significant increase in rates by the Central Bank of Turkey, annual inflation accelerated from 67.07% in February to 68.50% in March. At the same time, independent analysts from the Inflation Research Group (ENAG) record an annual price increase of more than 120%. Additionally, on April 9, the Turkish Ministry of Commerce imposed restrictions on the export of 54 categories of goods to Israel, including cement, glass, iron, aluminum and steel, which puts additional pressure on the already strained construction sector. These sanctions, in effect until the end of hostilities and the creation of conditions for free humanitarian aid to Gaza, are likely to raise prices for both Israeli and Turkish consumers.Resistance levels: 32.4500, 32.6000, 32.7500, 32.9000.Support levels: 32.3000, 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306.NZD/USD: the US currency has reached a new recordThe NZD/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction near the 0.5995 level, as the New Zealand currency is facing difficulties in trying to regain its position against the background of disappointing macroeconomic statistics.The March report showed that spending via e-cards in New Zealand decreased by 0.7%, which in absolute terms is a decrease of NZ$ 45 million compared to February. Compared to March of the previous year, 2023, the total amount of expenses decreased by 3.0%. This decrease was recorded in almost all key sectors of the economy: of the seven main sectors, only wholesale trade, with the exception of services, showed an increase of 2.1%. The biggest deterioration was seen in the sectors related to sales of clothing and motor vehicles, each of which showed a 2.2% drop. There was also a decrease in the fuel sectors by 1.4%, durable goods by 0.3% and consumables by 0.2%.These data indicate continued pressure on the New Zealand economy, which negatively affects the national currency and contributes to volatility in the foreign exchange market. The lack of significant improvement in economic indicators may continue to put pressure on the New Zealand dollar in the near term.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6110.Support levels: 0.5970, 0.5870.Crude Oil market analysisPrices for North American WTI Crude Oil have stabilized at 85.09 in a sideways trend driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and seasonal growth in global fuel demand.The situation in the Middle East remains tense with expectations of possible Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israeli infrastructure, which has led to warnings for citizens of some countries to visit the region. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report predicted that global oil demand will increase to 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, and decrease to 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. A seasonal increase in fuel consumption is also expected in the second quarter: demand for aviation kerosene will grow by 600 thousand barrels per day, for gasoline — by 400 thousand, and for diesel fuel — by 200 thousand barrels per day.Resistance levels: 86.30, 90.00.Support levels: 84.00, ...
NZD/USD: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate remained at 5.50%The NZD/USD currency pair continues to show moderate growth, strengthening the bullish trend that began at the beginning of the week: currently, the exchange rate is approaching 0.6075, updating the highs since March 21 against the background of the latest decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the key interest rate.As expected, the rate remained at 5.50%. The bank's official statement emphasized the importance of inflationary risks, which implies maintaining high rates for a long period. The bank's authorities also expressed the expectation that economic activity in New Zealand and its main trading partners may decline, in contrast to the stability of the US economy. It is assumed that major global central banks may begin easing monetary policy closer to the middle or end of the year, which will provide more data for analysis and subsequent market reaction.Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair was pressured by fresh data from New Zealand: the business confidence index from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) fell by 25.0% in the first quarter after a 2.0% decline in the previous quarter.Resistance levels: 0.6077, 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158.Support levels: 0.6045, 0.6030, 0.6000, 0.5975.GBP/USD: British retail increased by 3.5% in March%The GBP/USD currency pair shows minimal changes, being at the level of 1.2675. The day before, the pair actively grew and reached the highest since March 21, which was caused by the lack of significant macroeconomic data.The March report by the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC) showed an increase in retail sales in the UK by 3.2%, which is significantly higher than the expected 1.8% and the previous month with an increase of 1.0%. Easter celebrations contributed to a significant increase in demand for food, but overall sales growth remains moderate due to adverse weather and high inflation, with a noticeable increase in grocery spending by 6.8% and a decrease in non-food items by 1.9% in the first quarter. In the United States, business optimism data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) also turned out to be disappointing: the index fell from 89.4 to 88.5 points, falling short of the projected 90.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2810.Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2573, 1.2539.Gold market AnalysisThe price of gold is in the correction phase within the framework of an uptrend, trading at around 2359.0. A new surge of growth is taking place in the market, which is supported by both private and institutional investors.Since the beginning of the year, a number of factors have favored an increase in quotations. The main support for the precious metals market is the current geopolitical tension: in the context of military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, investors prefer investments in protective assets, among which gold acts as a reliable tool for preserving and increasing capital. This is also confirmed by trading volumes: according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), the average trading volume over the past two sessions reached 306.5 thousand positions, which is significantly higher than 278.0 thousand in early March and 134.0 thousand. at the end of February.Resistance levels: 2375.0, 2450.0.Support levels: 2330.0, 2250.0.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, prices for WTI Crude Oil are held at around 84.70, as traders refrain from opening new positions ahead of the release of today's US inflation data at 14:30 GMT+2.The price of oil was influenced by the latest forecasts of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), according to which it is expected that oil production by OPEC+ countries in 2024 will decrease by 930 thousand barrels per day, which is 190 thousand barrels per day more than previous forecasts. By 2025, it is expected to increase production by 750 thousand barrels per day to 36.89 million barrels. Production forecasts for the current year have been adjusted by 470 thousand barrels per day, and for the next year — by 40 thousand barrels. In March, oil prices showed an increase for the third month in a row against the background of geopolitical risks associated with attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea. In addition, the market was influenced by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of commercial oil reserves: in the week to April 5, inventories increased by 3.034 million barrels, while analysts expected an increase of 2.415 million barrels.Resistance levels: 85.50, 86.00, 87.00, 88.00.Support levels: 84.75, 84.00, 83.00, ...
NZD/USD: the growth rate slowed down before the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New ZealandSince the beginning of April, the NZD/USD currency pair has been trying to adjust within the medium-term downtrend. At the moment, the growth of the currency has slowed down at 0.6042 (Murray level [2/8]), in anticipation of the results of the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the upcoming publication of data on March inflation in the United States, scheduled for Wednesday.The New Zealand central bank is expected to keep its main interest rate at 5.50%, despite a significant deterioration in economic conditions and the onset of recession at the end of last year. The regulator is likely to emphasize that the inflation rate in the country is still too high, and announce plans to begin easing monetary policy no earlier than 2025, contrary to the expectations of investors, some of whom hope for a rate cut in August. Although such news may temporarily support the growth of NZD/USD, a significant increase in the value of the currency is not expected.Resistance levels: 0.6042, 0.6073, 0.6103.Support levels: 0.6012, 0.5950, 0.5920.USD/CAD: pressure on the Canadian labor market continuesAgainst the background of stabilization of the US dollar and disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Canada, the USD/CAD currency pair is at 1.3576.In March, the Canadian unemployment rate rose from 5.8% to 6.1%, exceeding analysts' expectations, which had predicted an increase to only 5.9%. This change occurred after the total number of employees decreased by 2.2 thousand people, while in the previous month there was an increase of 40.7 thousand with a forecast of 25.9 thousand. In particular, full—time employment decreased by 0.7 thousand, and part-time employment - by 1.6 thousand, with the share of the economically active population unchanged at 65.3%.In the USA, on the contrary, unemployment decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, due to an increase in the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector by 303 thousand compared to 270 thousand in the previous month, and in the private sector by 232 thousand, instead of the expected 207 thousand. This led to an increase in the index of labor market trends from 111.85 to 112.84 points, which should have a positive impact on the value of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3720.Support levels: 1.3530, 1.3380.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD currency pair is showing moderate growth, continuing to develop the active bullish trend observed in recent days, which regularly leads to an update of maximum values: at the moment, the price is testing the level of 2345.00 for a possible upward breakout, in anticipation of new catalysts in the market.The focus of investors' attention is the upcoming publication of March inflation data in the United States. The annual consumer price index is expected to accelerate from 3.2% to 3.4%, which may put pressure on the US Federal Reserve to abandon its conservative monetary strategy. The monthly index is expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%, and core inflation will also adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and from 3.8% to 3.7%. On the same day, the minutes of the Fed's March meeting are expected to be released, which will help clarify the regulator's plans for monetary policy. The main expectation of investors remains a possible interest rate cut as early as June, and at least three adjustments before the end of 2024, although the postponement of the beginning of monetary easing to the end of the year is now being actively considered.Resistance levels: 2353.79, 2375.00, 2400.00, 2425.00.Support levels: 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00, 2285.00.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to show potential for growth, remaining at 91.07 amid growing fears that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas could lead to disruptions in supplies from oil-producing countries in the Middle East.Earlier, oil prices fell amid reports of a decrease in geopolitical tensions: last weekend, Israel announced plans for a partial withdrawal of troops from the southern Gaza Strip, as well as the resumption of peace talks under the auspices of Egypt, which temporarily led to a decrease in prices from 91.95 to 89.11. However, on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said about preparations for a possible invasion of Rafah, which inevitably renewed fears in the market and caused an increase in oil prices.Resistance levels: 91.95, 93.79, 96.22.Support levels: 89.10, 87.60, ...
USD/CHF: Swiss Central Bank issues Quarterly Economic ReviewWith the strengthening of the US dollar, the USD/CHF currency pair is experiencing a correction, being at the level of 0.9026, and feels the influence of the latest decisions of the Swiss National Bank regarding monetary policy.In the latest quarterly report published by the bank, the main focus was on reducing the interest rate from 1.75% to 1.50% due to the stability of inflationary trends. Economic growth is expected to reach 1.0% in 2024, which corresponds to the current soft direction of monetary policy. Inflation fell to 1.2% in February at an annual level, well below the 2% target limit, and is expected to remain at a similar level throughout the year. The situation in the real estate market is putting pressure, which could potentially lead to a weakening of the Swiss franc in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 0.9070, 0.9210.Support levels: 0.8990, 0.8870.USD/CAD: GDP data showed economic growth in the USA and CanadaThe USD/CAD currency pair is at 1.3558, showing a recovery after a fall this week, when the lowest values since March 22 were reached. Market activity is slowing down as the Catholic Easter celebration approaches, leading to the closure of many trading platforms.Today, the US is expected to publish data on the price index of personal consumer spending, which is key for the Federal Reserve System in analyzing inflation and determining monetary policy. The index for February is projected to indicate moderate growth from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.5% year-on-year, with an unchanged base level of 2.8%. Additionally, information on personal income and expenses of Americans for February will be published and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will take place.Traders are also focused on the latest data on the GDP of Canada and the United States. The Canadian economy showed growth of 0.6% in January, exceeding forecasts and breaking away from a decline of 0.1% in the previous month. U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023 was adjusted upward from 3.2% to 3.4% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3580, 1.3613, 1.3650.Support levels: 1.3524, 1.3500, 1.3450, 1.3400.Platinum market analysisThe trend towards correction in metal prices remains, and this week platinum is holding above the 900.00 mark.A recent report by the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) highlighted the ongoing crisis in the industry. Analysts point out that due to low selling prices, platinum production is expected to decrease by 3.0% in 2024, which will lead to a decrease in total production to 5.489 million ounces - the lowest since 2013. Currently, more than a third of mining companies are operating at a loss, with an average loss per ounce estimated at $148. The WPIC report also highlights that South Africa is losing its attractiveness for investment in the platinum sector, which could lead to a decrease in production in this region by 1.0%.Resistance levels: 920.00, 954.00.Support levels: 900.00, 870.00.Crude Oil market analysisPrices for North American WTI Crude Oil are in the process of a sideways correction, settling at 82.69 amid growing geopolitical tensions.The activity of the Houthis from Yemen, carrying out attacks on international vessels in the Gulf of Aden, continues to create problems for maritime transport through the Red Sea, which puts pressure on global oil supplies. A positive impetus for the growth of oil prices is provided by macroeconomic dynamics: China increased oil imports by 5.1%, reaching 88.31 million tons from January to February, while domestic production in the country increased by 2.9% to 35.11 million tons, and refining volumes increased by 3.0% to 118.76 million tons.In the United States, oil reserves are also stabilizing. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil reserves increased by 9.337 million barrels this week compared with a previous decrease of 1.519 million barrels. A similar trend was confirmed by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), which reported an increase in inventories by 3.165 million barrels after a previous decrease of 1.952 million barrels.Resistance levels: 83.60, 87.00.Support levels: 81.40, ...
EUR/USD: Gfk Group reports an increase in consumer sentiment in GermanyThe EUR/USD currency pair shows an ambiguous movement, stabilizing near the 1.0830 indicator: on the previous day, the pair showed attempts at an active upward movement, continuing the positive dynamics of the beginning of the week and reaching peak values since March 22.Ahead of the day, investors are analyzing March data on economic sentiment in the euro area. It is expected that information will be provided on inflation in Spain, where growth is projected to 0.6% compared to the previous month and to 3.2% on an annual basis. In addition, representatives of the European Central Bank, including Piero Cipollone and Frank Elderson, are scheduled to speak.In Germany, the April results on the Gfk Group consumer climate index were recently published, which came out better than expected: the index rose from -28.8 to -27.4, exceeding forecasts of -27.9. This indicates a gradual improvement in consumer sentiment in Europe's largest economy, with a growing tendency for households to increase spending. Rolf Buerkle, an expert at Gfk Group, notes that higher incomes and stability in the labor market create a favorable basis for the revival of consumption, although the population still lacks optimism about future economic development.Resistance levels: 1.0838, 1.0863, 1.0900, 1.0930.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730.NZD/USD: the currency pair stabilizes near the key support level of 0.6000During the Asian session, the NZD/USD currency pair is approaching the 0.6000 level, checking it for the possibility of a downward breakout. Investors are being cautious, refraining from opening new deals against the background of the upcoming Easter holidays and waiting for the publication of the price index for personal consumption in the United States, scheduled for Friday at 14:30 GMT +2.This index is of key importance for the US Federal Reserve in assessing inflationary trends. It is expected that in February it will show an increase from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.5% on an annual basis. The underlying index is expected to slow down from 0.4% to 0.3%. On the same day, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, who may comment on future credit policy in light of the latest inflation data. Market monitoring of statements by other Fed representatives is also ongoing. For example, in a speech at Harvard, Lisa Cook of the Board of Governors stressed the need for caution in easing monetary policy, pointing to persistent inflation, especially in the real estate sector. Austan Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, in an interview with Yahoo Finance, noted that despite the general decline in the index, price pressure in the housing sector remains and this may contribute to a transition to a softer tone in regulation in the coming months.Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6030, 0.6049, 0.6076.Support levels: 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920, 0.5885.AUD/USD: consumer inflation in Australia remains at its peakWith the strengthening of the US dollar, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at the level of 0.6530.The February consumer price index in Australia rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with previous data and exceeding expectations at 3.3%. The stability of the index was supported by an increase in prices for insurance and financial services (+8.4%), tobacco products (+6.1%), housing (+4.6%) and food products (+3.6%). The most significant price reductions affected meat and seafood (-2.0%), entertainment and culture (-1.7%), as well as gas and other household energy sources (-1.4%).The US dollar showed stability after the previous decline, trading at 104.00 on the USDX index. The market reacted positively to data on basic orders for durable goods, which showed an increase of 0.5% in February after a decrease of 0.3% in the previous period, as well as an increase in orders for durable goods by 1.4% after a drop of 6.9%. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, based on a survey of 5.0 thousand American families and reflecting their assessment of the current and future economic climate, was fixed at 104.7 points against 104.8 points earlier, which had a temporary impact on the US currency.Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6630.Support levels: 0.6510, 0.6440.Crude Oil market analysisDuring Asian trade, WTI crude oil prices show a decline, continuing the trend of the previous day, when they rolled back from the levels reached on March 20, while heading towards testing the indicator of $ 80.60 per barrel downward.In the context of the debate on the future of energy, OPEC Secretary General Haissam al-Gais criticized proposals to completely abandon the use of hydrocarbons to preserve the climate, calling such ideas "erroneous and divorced from reality." He stressed that such a step would have a negative impact on many aspects of life, including transport, food production, medicines, medical devices and even the manufacture of equipment for renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar panels. He also noted that predictions of reaching a peak in oil consumption by 2030 are based on proposals for the complete elimination of fossil fuels. According to OPEC estimates, demand could reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, and possibly 120 million barrels. Haysam al-Gais points out that approximately $14 trillion in investments in the energy industry will be required to meet future supply needs by 2045.Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 83.00, 84.27.Support levels: 80.00, 79.07, 78.00, ...
EUR/USD: euro continues to decline against the background of yesterday's bearish trendThe EUR/USD price continues to move downwards, testing the 1.0865 mark, which brings it closer to the minimum values of the beginning of March.The market is focused on the updated statistics on inflation in the eurozone for February. The expectations were confirmed: The consumer goods price index increased by 0.6% over the month and by 2.6% over the year. Core inflation also showed an increase of 0.7% and 3.1%, respectively, exceeding the goals of the European Central Bank (ECB). At the same time, ECB representative Pablo Hernandez de Cos expressed the opinion about the possibility of lowering interest rates in the summer if the trend of slowing inflation continues. Despite some disagreements within the ECB, this approach seems reasonable. Recent ECB forecasts indicate a decrease in expected inflation in the coming years, especially due to a decrease in the impact of energy costs, projected at an average of 2.3% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0964, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0864, 1.0838, 1.0820, 1.0800.NZD/USD: New Zealand Dollar resumes declineDuring the trading session, NZD/USD demonstrated an increase in the "bearish" trend, heading towards testing the 0.6060 level for a possible break down and updating the lows recorded since February 14.Activity on the New Zealand dollar is mainly caused by the results of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which affects expectations regarding the policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand due to the similarity in the approaches of managing monetary policy of the two countries. At the RBA meeting, it was decided to leave the key rate at 4.35%, while rejecting previously possible assumptions about further rate increases. This indicates a likely move to lower rates, which is similarly expected from the RBNZ. Monetary policy easing in this region is projected to follow similar actions by the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and possibly the Bank of England towards the end of 2024.Resistance levels: 0.6076, 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158.Support levels: 0.6049, 0.6030, 0.6000, 0.5950.GBP/USD: market expects inflation data from the UKIn the Asian trading session, against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar and the lack of news from the UK, the GBP/USD pair shows a moderate drop, being at 1.2717.The strengthening of the dollar is associated with anticipation of the results of the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy, scheduled for Thursday at 14:00 GMT. Analysts do not expect changes in the regulator's policy, but there is concern about possible signals of an imminent rate cut, preceding similar steps by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The upcoming publication of inflation data on Wednesday will have a significant impact on the regulator's decisions. The consumer price index in February is expected to show an increase to 0.7% month-on-month and a decrease to 3.5% year-on-year, while core inflation may fall to 4.6%. The growth of the retail price indicator is also projected to slow down from 4.9% to 4.5% year-on-year.Resistance levels: 1.2750, 1.2860.Support levels: 1.2690, 1.2540.Crude Oil market analysisIn the Asian session, WTI crude oil quotes showed fluctuations, remaining near the $82.00 bar and approaching the recently updated highs recorded on November 3.China's increased appetite for oil imports has a positive impact on prices: the latest government report showed that at the beginning of the year refining reached 119.0 million tons, which is 3.0% higher than in the same period of the previous year. The market's attention is also focused on the recent attacks on oil refining facilities in Russia, which may lead to a decrease in the amount of fuel available on the market.Analysts' views are also focused on the expected decline in supplies from OPEC+. According to the latest data, Iraq plans to reduce exports by 3.3 million barrels per day, reacting to previous production overflows. At the same time, Saudi Arabia reduced sales in January by 0.2% to 6.30 million barrels per day, continuing the downward trend that began in December, when 6.31 million barrels per day were shipped.Resistance levels: 82.86, 84.27, 85.50, 86.50.Support levels: 82.00, 81.00, 80.00, ...
EUR/GBP: euro is strengthening after a significant drop a day earlierThe EUR/GBP currency pair shows a slight rise, reaching 0.8537, recovering from a noticeable drop a day ago. The drop was caused by the publication of data from the United States confirming the persistence of inflation, which may affect the revision of the time frame for lowering interest rates in the last half of 2024. The February producer price index in the United States accelerated to 1.6% per annum, exceeding analysts' forecasts, and increased monthly by 0.6%, which is significantly higher than expectations. The core index, which excludes the cost of food and energy, also showed an increase of 2.0%, which contradicted the forecast of 1.9%.Meanwhile, in the UK, statistics on the RICS house price index were published, indicating a decrease of 10.0% in February, which is the best result since October last year. The demand index for new housing improved to 6.0. The construction sector is also showing signs of recovery, with an annual growth of 0.7% and a monthly increase of 1.1%. Despite the positive signals from the housing market, uncertainty about the future steps of the Bank of England may limit demand and contribute to a return to a declining trend.Resistance levels: 0.8546, 0.8562, 0.8577, 0.8591.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8519, 0.8500, 0.8479.NZD/USD: New Zealand currency deepens the decline, reaching the minimum values in MarchThe NZD/USD currency pair continues to fall, activating the "bearish" trend this week and reaching new lows for March. The indicator enters the critical support zone at 0.6100, while positive economic data from New Zealand does not resonate with investors. In particular, the country's manufacturing activity index for February exceeded expectations, rising from 47.5 to 49.3 points.At the same time, rising manufacturing inflation in the United States is putting additional pressure on the New Zealand dollar. The latest report showed an acceleration in the producer price index in the United States from 0.3% to 0.6% in February, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts. This has increased doubts about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June, although this outcome remains the preferred scenario in the market.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6158, 0.6183, 0.6200.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6076, 0.6049, 0.6030.Platinum market analysisThis week, the correction trend continued its influence on the platinum position, bringing the quotes back to the value of 930.00 dollars per ounce.The market situation remains stable: the significant platinum deficit recorded last year, which reached a record 878,000 ounces according to the World Platinum Council (WPIC), is expected to decrease to 418,000 ounces next year, which still exceeds previous forecasts of 353,000 ounces. In the previous year, the total supply of the metal decreased by 2%, and this trend is expected to intensify with a further 1% year-on-year decline, leading to a 6% decrease in total supply over the past five years.Although market estimates seem neutral, the key technical aspect remains significant: the price of palladium exceeded the cost of platinum for eight years, but in February of this year the trend changed, and the difference between the metals temporarily amounted to -47 dollars. Now the price gap has widened again, and the difference between palladium and platinum has again exceeded $ 140. This significant change in profitability over a short period draws investors' attention to such a conservative investment strategy.Resistance levels: 942.00, 989.00.Support levels: 915.00, 876.00.Crude Oil market analysisIn the Asian trading session, the price of WTI crude oil shows uncertainty, hovering around the level of $ 80.60 per barrel, after reaching its highest levels since the beginning of November over the past two days.A significant decrease in the volume of fuel reserves in the United States became a catalyst for growth: fresh statistics from the American Petroleum Institute showed a decrease of 5.521 million barrels per week, exceeding analysts' expectations. These data are confirmed by a report from the Energy Information Administration, which also indicates a decrease in reserves. An additional positive boost was received from OPEC, which approved forecasts for oil demand growth, which reduces concerns about a slowdown in the global economy.Investors today will focus on American industrial production and consumer expectations from the University of Michigan. In the evening, Baker Hughes is expected to report on the number of operating oil platforms in the United States, which may provide new clues about the future direction of oil prices.Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 82.86, 84.27.Support levels: 80.00, 79.07, 78.00, ...
OPEC+ is markedly reducing oil production - in fact, the exporting countries will pump about 1 million barrels less per day. We have written earlier on why this is so.As a result, supply at the market has become lower, so prices have gone up and are approaching $100 per barrel again.What will the U.S. do after the OPEC+ statement?The coming energy crisis and the high inflation it causes are scaring the whole world, but it's the States that are worried the most right now:expensive oil means expensive fuel;it's causing prices of almost all commodities to rise;inflation is going up - the Fed keeps tightening policy;high key interest rates are pushing the U.S. closer to recession;in addition, high fuel prices can cause social discontent.To prevent this, the U.S. is trying to influence the largest oil producers and keep prices down. Otherwise, the Democrats will most likely not win the congressional elections. They are due in a month.The U.S. started to prepare in advance: President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia this summer and persuaded the U.S. to bring down oil prices. But it did not work out very well: OPEC acts in its own way and does not want to listen to Americans. As a result, the failed negotiations with the Saudis have further diminished the credibility of Biden and the Democrats' ability to influence oil, inflation and economic stability in the United States.However, the Biden administration is not giving up; they have a few more options - rather radical ones - on how to lower oil prices.Additional Oil ReleaseThe safest, though least effective, option is to further draw oil from strategic U.S. storage facilities. In response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 10 million barrels of oil, even as storage reserves are depleted.That would be all well and good, but the announcement had little or no effect on oil prices, especially compared to the previous similar decision to release 180 million barrels to the market. No wonder: the volumes are not comparable.In addition, since U.S. storage reserves are running out, there is a risk that they will not be enough for a rainy day: in case of sharp reductions in domestic production (for example, during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico) or imports (if OPEC+ countries reduce exports).Reducing military aid to the ArabsDemocrats have drafted a "Tense Partnership" bill in response to OPEC+ and specifically the alliance's leaders, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They are accused of "a hostile act against the United States" and "siding with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine."As revenge, the U.S. could withdraw its troops from these countries and stop supplying weapons and other military aid to fight neighboring states and terrorists. This includes protecting oil infrastructure from attack.This option also has disadvantages: without U.S. military support in these countries, there could be problems that would inevitably affect the global oil supply. After all, if military actions or terrorist attacks affect the oil fields or storage facilities of Saudi Aramco, oil will cost even more, and such attacks occur quite often.So even if the Saudis and the UAE will not reduce exports in response to the withdrawal of troops and reduction of arms supply, there is a good chance that sooner or later the fighting will make prices go up.In addition, Saudi Arabia has already planned to prepare for a possible conflict with the United States. For example, in the spring the Saudis said they were going to explore ways to move away from the petrodollar - that is, not to use bucks in the black gold trade. In this case, the demand for the dollar could fall dramatically, especially if other oil-exporting countries do the same.NOPEC: Conflict with OPEC+Amid disagreements with OPEC, the U.S. may return to the "oil production and export cartel law," NOPEC, to have more leverage on oil exporters.In this case, U.S. courts will be able to consider antitrust suits against OPEC+ and in general against countries involved in cartel collusion in the oil market. Under the decision of their own courts, the U.S. will be able to impose sanctions, confiscate property of these countries and put pressure on them in other ways. At the same time, the U.S. itself will indicate what is legal and what is not, thus assessing any actions of the countries that regulate oil production and prices.This option also has a disadvantage: sanctions on exporters would also hit the U.S. itself. If oil prices become lower, the U.S. oil industry will also be hard hit: domestic production will decrease and it will have to import more. And since the market is competitive, and the U.S. in this case will be "enemies of OPEC +", they will have to buy oil more expensive.So, even if the U.S. takes a drastic step - provoking a conflict with Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or starting a sanctions war with OPEC+ - all this will have a negative impact on themselves.Can't sanctions be lifted on Venezuela?As we can see, the U.S. has almost no normal options left to influence the oil market. Nevertheless, the U.S. says it is not going to remove sanctions from Venezuela yet, despite the fact that this would help get more oil on the market and lower oil prices. We may see some new rhetoric in this regard, but no change for now.The Iran deal has also been stalled so far: there is no news or movement on it. Although it is possible that disagreements with the Saudis may attract the U.S. to support Iran, because these are the two sides of the Arab conflict.On the one hand, Iranian oil would help to increase supply, but there is a nuance here as well: the reserves in this country are not grandiose, moreover, most of the oil is already exported in circumvention of sanctions.So what to do with Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2022?If we discard all of the above options, then all we have to do is sit back and watch oil go up in price. The outlook is also bad: even if the world starts a recession and the demand for oil decreases, OPEC+ is already reducing production and adjusting to negative expectations, and also the supply from Russia may decrease if the embargo comes into force.And if that's the case, U.S. inflation will be high. And given the strong labor market, the Fed may raise the rate even more than 1.25% by the end of the year, and it is not certain that it will slow down next year as well. If rates remain high for a long time, the risk of recession in the U.S. is very high, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will have no fuel for growth. As a result, the economy will have a hard time: liquidity is scarce.If the U.S. starts to act sharply, the dollar is at risk: the "oil" countries can give it up to reduce dependence on the United States. But if the U.S. does nothing, tightening Fed policy will keep the dollar very strong - though at the cost of high inflation and recession. If you are interested in WTI analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest WTI forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss ...
In 2019, the "sub-sanctioned" Iran began to increase oil supplies in circumvention of sanctions. Mostly tankers went to China and the Mediterranean: Syria and Turkey. And by the beginning of 2022, the fleet for transporting sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil had tripled. It accounted for approximately 400 million barrels per year. And such a "ghost armada" successfully undermines the business of transport companies.Why did Iranian tankers get such a name?Last year, The Mail on Sunday reported: 123 Iranian vessels circumvent sanctions on oil trade. They change their location to GPS and create the appearance that they are anchored at sea, but at this time they are loading/unloading at the port. They also actively forge documents, use flags of different countries, disable identification systems and use front companies. Oil is often loaded onto several vessels and mixed before reaching its destination. This is also the case with "toxic" Russian oil.At the same time, Iran has a whole "underground" financial system for trade bypassing sanctions, writes the WSJ. It includes accounts in foreign banks, intermediary companies outside the country and firms that coordinate prohibited trade. The annual turnover is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.And Iranian banks attract affiliated firms to manage trade under sanctions. They register "daughters" outside the country, become trusted for Iranian traders, and then trade with foreign buyers of Iranian oil in foreign currency through accounts in foreign banks.Will the "Iranian Armada" help Russia?She is already helping her to circumvent sanctions, writes the Daily Mail. The international non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) accuses the Iranian navy of cooperating with Russian oil companies. Allegedly, Russian oilmen are using "Tehran's black market vessels" to circumvent the export ban. And the US, the EU and the UK are even calling for the formation of a team of "ghostbusters".At least 5 Iranian "ghost armadas" are transporting oil from Russia to China and India, according to UANI. And recently, the WSJ reported that Zamanoil from the UAE was linking Iranian and Russian oil workers. The US Treasury accused her of working with the Russian government and Rosneft on the supply of Iranian oil to Europe.However, at the end of March, Iran denied a "secret offer from Russia" to help it circumvent sanctions in exchange for support in concluding a nuclear deal. And in May, he noted that he could not be a competitor of Russia in the global oil and gas market. The country has its own regular customers, and Iran sells the maximum amount of oil.So officially, Iran does not seem to be planning to use its "army of ghosts" to help for the benefit of Russia, despite the fact that these countries have "converged" before. But then there was no question of an embargo on Russian oil and there was no ban on ship insurance. In the new reality, the actions of the "ghost armada" are quite difficult to ...
In the last month of summer, the oil exchange rate is likely to show a correctionIn August, the oil price depends on several important factors - first of all, the recovery of the market in the United States and the new flare-up of the conflict in the Middle East. The Israeli authorities have accused Iran of attacking an oil tanker, and the United States and Great Britain have already promised support to Israel. Against this background, the oil exchange rate moved to growth after a short correction, but it is not known how long this recovery growth will be. We offer a traditional analysis of oil prices.Reducing unemployment in the United StatesIn many ways, the positive movement on the US stock markets has a positive effect on the oil exchange rate: the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices traditionally update historical highs. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the number of applications for unemployment benefits has fallen sharply.During the last week of July, only 385 thousand such appeals were registered, and the total number of recipients of benefits amounted to 3 million people. However, the effect of positive news from the US markets has already been played out, and the dynamics of the oil exchange rate will need new incentives to continue growth.At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from the United States show an increase in the commodity deficit, which increased from $71 billion in May to $75.7 billion in June. This was largely due to a 2.1% increase in imports compared to the previous month, although exports increased by only 0.6%. This is largely due to a reduction in supplies, which in turn restricts production within the United States.There are already reports about how the spread of a new strain of coronavirus can affect the American economy. In particular, as the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, said, the new strain may slow down the recovery of the labor market. This completely contradicts the recent statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who assured analysts that the delta strain is not a risk to the American economy.Positive statistics on the labor market may force the Fed to change its approach to monetary policy and increase rates, as well as curtail the quantitative easing program. First of all, this will lead to a strengthening of the dollar, which in turn will affect the commodities denominated in the US currency. In this case, the oil exchange rate will be influenced by another important negative factor. Moreover, investors will begin to withdraw resources from risky assets, and then the Russian and Chinese stock markets will suffer.Already half of the US states have stopped paying increased unemployment benefits, which on the one hand indicates that there is no need for additional incentives, and on the other hand may mean an increase in demand for fuel. However, in any case, the statistics on the labor market in the United States may not be as positive as it may seem at first glance - the number of jobs outside agriculture, on the contrary, turned out to be less than a year earlier. First of all, this was caused by a large number of dismissals in the field of higher education.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsThe influence of China and RussiaAn increase in oil purchases from China can potentially act as a new incentive for the hydrocarbon market. So, China may soon announce an increase in quotas for the purchase of hydrocarbons. Moreover, it is expected that more oil will be purchased not only by small refineries from China, but also by large Chinese companies.The main seller of oil on the Chinese market is the Arab countries from the Persian Gulf, so first, most likely, prices for Dubai grade oil will rise sharply, and other grades, including the benchmark Brent, will follow it. However, these expectations are contradicted by the increase in the incidence of coronavirus in China - due to lockdowns and restrictive measures, traffic on some of the most important logistics routes is reduced.Moreover, the Chinese authorities have decided to restrict air and rail travel around the country. In the Asian region, the number of infected people has been growing recently. In particular, in Thailand, even new restrictive measures did not help to stop the increase in new cases. Similarly, in Sydney, Australia, the increase in new cases has reached a historic high, and the authorities expect the situation to worsen further.In turn, Russian oil companies are trying to use the OPEC+ deal to get more favorable working conditions inside the country. In particular, they suggested that the government reduce the tax burden on the industry, which in turn will help start the development of hard-to-reach oil. To do this, they proposed to create two new groups of deposits, for which they proposed to reset the tax on mineral extraction.The first group includes areas with the volume of initial reserves of less than 65 million tons and the degree of depletion of less than 1%. The second group includes the deposits of ultra-viscous oil in the Komi Republic. Moreover, the oil companies decided to stimulate the exploration of hard-to-recover reserves. To do this, it is proposed to use a traditional set of tools - tax deductions and reduction of payments for the mineral extraction tax. However, so far the Ministry of Finance is against the initiative, which is not eager to help oil companies and does not plan to change the taxation of the industry until 2023-2024, until the end of the OPEC+ agreement.At the same time, the further deterioration of the pandemic situation in the world may become a deterrent to the growth of oil prices. Recently, in order to combat the spread of a new delta strain of coronavirus, an increasing number of countries have been strengthening restrictive measures on the mobility of the population. Investors are particularly concerned about the situation in China, where domestic air and rail traffic was limited in order to localize outbreaks of the disease, which directly affects the oil exchange rate.Oil price analysisOil futures moved into the negative zone, without reaching the goals of a short-term rebound. These levels are located near the $73.50 and $71.50 marks, which corresponds to the average Bollinger bands on the daily chart. In general, the oil exchange rate is affected by downward pressure, and analysts are increasingly inclined to believe that a correction may occur in the hydrocarbon market in the near future. The support lines are located near the previous lows - around $70.20 and $67.50, according to the technical analysis of oil prices.Read more: What are futures: types, features, advantages and risksIn the first week of August, the dynamics of the oil exchange rate showed a failure-from about $75 to $70 literally from August 2 to 5. The reason for the increase is quite banal - the growth of fuel reserves in the American market, which indicates a decrease in economic activity. According to official data, inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels, while a decrease of 3.9 million barrels was expected. Moreover, analysts are influenced by data on the spread of a new strain of coronavirus in China, the United States and Japan, as well as the associated expectations of new restrictions.The most important factor that positively affects the dynamics of the oil exchange rate remains the growth of tensions in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel on the one hand and Iran and Lebanon on the other threatens the rapid exit of hydrocarbons from the Islamic Republic to foreign markets, as well as generally increases the uncertainty of oil transportation from the Middle East. As a result, literally in one day on August 5, the oil exchange rate recovered to $71 per barrel, and the next day it was already testing the level of $72 per barrel.A new conflict in the Middle East may become a significant factor that is likely to affect the oil price in August. According to Israeli Defense Minister Beni Gantz, his country is ready to start a war against Iran because of a drone strike on an oil tanker. We are talking about the attack on the Mercer Street oil tanker.Officially, the ship belongs to Japan, sails under the flag of Liberia, but it is operated by the Israeli company Zodiac Maritime. According to Gantz, the Islamic Republic has no more than two and a half months to come close to producing nuclear weapons. In this context, the attack on an Israeli tanker becomes part of a large-scale confrontation in the region. If the tension increases, the oil exchange rate may receive additional support.In turn, Israel has already received assistance from its traditional allies - the United States and Great Britain. As British Prime Minister Boris Johnson hastened to say, " Iran must answer for the consequences." In turn, the representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said that the Islamic Republic is ready to protect its security and national interests. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also joined the diplomatic skirmish, saying that Tehran was undoubtedly behind the attack, and the allies would prepare a "collective response" to this attack.Thus, two multidirectional factors: the strengthening of anti-bullying measures and the growing conflict in the Middle East are pushing the trajectory of the oil exchange rate in different directions. If the first factor leads to a reduction in demand, the second one seriously reduces the supply of oil - it is the Middle East conflicts that traditionally push the cost of hydrocarbons up. According to most analysts, the combination of two multidirectional factors can cause the oil exchange rate to fluctuate in a wide range from $68 to $75 per Brent, depending on the news background.Read more: Are the minutes of the Federal Reserve meetings useful for ...
At the morning trading on Tuesday, oil prices are declining. By 7.42 GMT, Brent oil fell to 72 dollars 85 cents per barrel, or by 0.05% compared to the closing price of trading the day before. The price of WTI oil fell to 71 dollars 22 cents per barrel, or 0.06%. Pressure on oil prices is exerted by information about the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in Asian countries. In this region, there is an increase in the number of infections with a new strain of coronavirus infection "delta". The authorities of a number of Asian countries were forced to tighten restrictive measures, including on movement. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank Of Australia note that the spread of the delta strain around the world will become a serious threat to the recovery of oil demand. Mobility restrictions are already being observed in some parts of the Asian region. This is the reason for the fall in oil demand. More than 60% of the world's oil consumption is accounted for by ...
Oil quotations are rising amid expectations of a further recovery in demand. International Energy Agency forecasts oil demand to be higher than before the pandemic by the end of 2022.The price of Brent crude futures on the ICE London exchange has surpassed $73 in August, trading data shows. It peaked at $73.07 during the trading session - the last time Brent traded above $73 a barrel was on 20 May 2019.WTI Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 1.22% to $71.15 in July.The International Energy Agency (IEA) today published The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR), which said that oil demand will return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022. At the same time, the organization kept the demand forecast for 2021 at 5.4 million barrels per day.Read more: The International Energy Agency (IEA) - brief history and activityOPEC+ member countries will have reserves of around 6.9m bpd between May and July. And if sanctions on Iran are lifted, market supply would increase by 1.4m bpd in the short term.The price of Brent crude oil has been in an uptrend since May 21. During this period it rose from $64.5 to $73, and there were only two trading sessions which closed lower.The IEA stressed that OPEC+ countries will have to increase production to meet rising market demand. Bloomberg points out that road traffic in the US and most of Europe has recovered to pre-pandemic levels.At the same time, the full recovery of flights, and with them, demand for jet fuel remains in doubt, says Investec Bank's head of commodity markets, Collum McPherson. The return of Iranian oil to the market, he believes, will be a challenge for OPEC+ if demand does not pick ...
In international markets, the price of Brent crude oil in April of this year averaged $65, which did not change compared to the average value for March. According to the US Energy Short-term forecast (EIA), published on May 11, 2021, they are projected to average $65 per barrel in the second quarter of 2021, and then an average of 61 per barrel in the second half of 2021, therefore, a correction is expected to develop.Brent crude oil prices were high in 2020, averaging $64 a barrel in January. But they fell sharply in the second quarter, closing at about $9 a barrel in April 2020, when the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell to a negative price around -37 dollars a barrel.By June 2020, the price of Brent crude oil exceeded $40 per barrel, and by the end of 2020, it rose to $50 per barrel. In March and April 2021, prices rose to $65 per barrel due to rising oil demand due to an increase in the number of vaccinations and an increase in overall economic activity worldwide.The price increase also reflects supply constraints from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC partner countries. OPEC restricts oil production due to lower demand during the pandemic. At its meeting in April 2021, OPEC announced that it would start increasing oil production, with each adjustment being no more than 0.5 million barrels per day.According to the EIA forecasts, the average price of WTI oil in 2021 will be $59 per barrel, and in 2022 oil will be at the level of $57 per barrel.Four reasons for volatile oil pricesPreviously, oil prices had predictable seasonal fluctuations. They rose sharply in price in the spring, as oil traders expect high demand for cars for the summer holidays. When demand peaks, prices fall in the fall and winter, especially if the winter is warm.Oil prices have become unstable due to factors affecting oil prices. The coronavirus pandemic has led to a sharp drop in oil demand. This offset three other factors affecting oil prices: rising U.S. oil production, declining OPEC influence, and a stronger dollar.Slowing global demandThe EIA estimates that global demand for oil and liquid fuels in 2020 was 92.2 million barrels per day. This is 9 million barrels per day lower than in 2019. Demand is expected to grow by 5.4 million barrels per day in 2021 and another 3.7 million barrels per day in 2022.US oil production growthProducers of shale gas and alternative fuels such as ethanol in the US have increased their supply. They slowly increased the supply, maintaining prices high enough to cover the cost of developing new fields. Many shale gas producers have become more efficient at extracting oil. They found ways to keep the fields open, saving on the cost of closing them. This growth began in 2015 and has since affected supply.In August 2018, the United States became the world's largest oil producer. In September 2019, U.S. crude oil production rose to a record 12.1 million barrels per day. For the first time since 1973, the US exported more oil. In February 2021, U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.9 million barrels per day, down 1.2 million barrels per day from January. The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production rose to 10.9 million bpd in March and nearly 11.0 million bpd in April.U.S. crude oil production is estimated to average 11.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2021 and increase to 11.8 million barrels per day in 2022.Reducing the influence of OPECAmerican shale oil producers have become more powerful, but they don't act like an OPEC-type cartel. To maintain market share, OPEC did not cut production enough to set a minimum price level.OPEC's leader, Saudi Arabia, wants higher oil prices because it is a source of government revenue. But it must balance this with the loss of market share to American and Russian companies.Saudi Arabia does not want to lose market share to its main rival, Shiite – led Iran. The 2015 nuclear peace Treaty lifted 2010 economic sanctions and allowed Saudi Arabia's biggest rival to export oil again in 2016. But that source dried up when President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions in 2018.The rise in the value of the dollarCurrency traders have been raising the value of the dollar since 2014. Many traders use the dollar as a safe investment in times of economic uncertainty. For example, the value of the dollar rose by 30% between 2013 and 2016 in response to the Greek debt crisis and Brexit. From March 3 to March 23, 2020, it grew by 8.4% due to the coronavirus pandemic.All oil transactions are paid in US dollars. Most oil-exporting countries link their currencies to the dollar. As a result, a 25% rise in the dollar offsets a 25% drop in oil prices. Global economic uncertainty keeps the US dollar strong.Brent oil price forecast for 2021 and 2022On the weekly oil chart, a large bullish "Wolf Wave" model was formed with the aim of working out the model at the level of $120 per barrel. As we can see, the potential for continued growth is still there. Moving averages indicate the presence of a short-term bullish trend in oil. Prices broke through the area between the signal lines up, which indicates pressure from buyers of "Black Gold" and the potential continuation of the growth of the asset value from the current levels. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop a correction and test the support level near the area of $68.50 per barrel. Further, the continuation of the growth of the oil exchange rate in the region above the level of $ 85 per barrel in 2021 and $ 120 in 2022.Read more: How to determine the beginning of the movement of the "bull" market?An additional signal in favor of the rise in quotations and prices for Brent oil will be a test of the support line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). The second signal will be a rebound from the lower border of the inverted "Head and Shoulders" reversal pattern. Confirmation of the rise in quotations will be the breakdown of the resistance level and the closing of Brent prices above the level of 70.55, as we can see, buyers can not break through this area in any way.Thus, the Brent forecast for oil prices for 2021 and 2022 suggests an attempt to develop a correction and test the support level near the area of 68.50. Further, the continuation of growth with a goal above the level of $85 per barrel in 2021 and $ 120 in 2022. A test of the trend line on the relative strength indicator, as well as the formation of a large inverted "Head and Shoulders" model, will be in favor of the rise.Oil price forecast for 2025 and 2050The EIA predicted that by 2025, the nominal price of Brent crude oil will rise to $66 per barrel.By 2030, it is expected that global demand will lead to an increase in the price of Brent crude oil to $89 per barrel. By 2040, prices are projected at $132 per barrel. By then, the sources of cheap oil will be exhausted, which will make oil production more expensive. By 2050, oil prices will be $185 per barrel, according to the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook.The EIA expects oil demand to stabilize as utilities rely more on natural gas and renewable energy sources. It is also assumed that economic growth averages about 2% per year, while energy consumption is declining by 0.4% per year. The EIA also has forecasts for other possible scenarios.Can oil cost $200 a barrel?Although it seems ridiculous now, there are situations in which the price of oil can reach $200 per barrel. The EIA forecasts Brent crude prices at $185 a barrel in 2050 if the cost of oil production falls and it displaces competing energy sources, but economic conditions could lead to even more price increases.In July 2008, oil prices reached a record high of about $147 per barrel. In December, they fell to about $40 per barrel, and then rose to $123 per barrel in April 2011. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) previously predicted that the price of Brent crude could rise to $270 a barrel on rapidly growing demand from China and other emerging markets.The price of oil at the level of $200 per barrel can change consumer consumption. The use of oil as an energy source has led to climate change. There is an opinion that high oil prices lead to a "drop in demand". If high prices persist long enough, people change their buying habits. The drop in demand occurred after the 1979 oil shock. Oil prices have been falling steadily for years.The $200-a-barrel oil price forecast seems disastrous for the American way of life, but people in Europe have been paying high prices for years because of high taxes. As long as people have time to adjust, they will find ways to live with higher oil ...