Forex analytical forecast for today, October 14, for USD/TRY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD & Crude oil

EUR/USD: euro remains near local heightsThe EUR/USD pair shows a slight decrease, rolling back from the local highs reached on September 6. Now the instrument is trying to break through the level of 1.1120, while investors are waiting for the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed), starting today. In recent weeks, Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have repeatedly hinted at a possible interest rate cut this month. The deterioration of inflation indicators and the cooling of the labor market create conditions for easing monetary policy. Recently, markets have been increasingly predicting the likelihood of a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut. The FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) shows that the probability of such a move reached almost 60% at the beginning of the week, although just a week ago this scenario was estimated at 25-30%. By the end of 2024, the overall rate cut could reach 125 basis points. In addition, investors drew attention to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which unexpectedly rose from -4.7 to 11.5 points in September, exceeding analysts' expectations of 3.9 points.At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone did not have a significant impact on the pair's exchange rate. The Italian consumer price index for August remained at 0.2% month-on-month and 1.1% year-on-year, indicating a gradual economic recovery and a return to pre-crisis indicators. The index calculated according to EU standards decreased from 1.3% to 1.2% in annual terms and from -0.1% to -0.2% on a monthly basis. The eurozone's trade balance in July, excluding seasonal fluctuations, decreased from 21.7 billion euros to 21.2 billion euros, although analysts had predicted a more significant decline to 14.9 billion euros.Resistance levels: 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1243, 1.1300.Support levels: 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.1000, 1.0964.GBP/USD: experts expect the US Federal Reserve to cut the rate by 0.5%The GBP/USD pair is approaching its annual highs, trading around 1.3206. Among the currencies of developed countries, the pound stands out as the only one showing strengthening against the US dollar, having added 3.9% since the beginning of the year.This positive trend is associated with the recovery of key sectors of the UK economy. Forecasts for the housing price index from Rightmove Group Ltd. They point to a possible increase in September: the indicator is expected to increase from -1.5% to 0.8% on a monthly basis and from 0.8% to 1.2% on an annual basis. Consumer inflation data for August, which will be released on Wednesday, are also in the spotlight. Analysts assume that the consumer price index will remain at 2.2% year-on-year, while the underlying indicator may accelerate from 3.3% to 3.5%. This may indicate the need to maintain the current course of the monetary policy of the Bank of England. In addition, the retail price index is expected to slow from 3.6% to 3.4% in August. These statistics will be key to the decision of the Bank of England, whose monetary policy meeting is scheduled for the next day. Experts assume that the regulator will leave the interest rate at 5.00%, but the comments of the bank's management will be carefully analyzed by investors to predict the further movement of the pound.Resistance levels: 1.3260, 1.3400.Support levels: 1.3176, 1.3040.NZD/USD: New Zealand's services sector shows growth for the first time since AprilThe NZD/USD pair is showing an unstable decline, rolling back from the local highs reached on September 6. The instrument is currently testing the level of 0.6193 for a breakdown downwards, while traders are closely following the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System.On the other hand, some support for the New Zealand dollar came from the country's macroeconomic statistics. At the end of last week, the market drew attention to the improvement in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in August, which rose from 44.4 to 45.8 points. In addition, the index of business activity in the service sector from Business NZ rose from 45.2 to 45.5 points, reaching its highest since April. Despite the fact that both indicators remain below 50.0 points, indicating a reduction in activity, their growth shows some signs of stabilization. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled for October 9. Until then, investors' attention will be focused on the GDP data for the second quarter, which will be released on Thursday. Forecasts indicate a possible contraction of the economy by -0.4% on a quarterly basis and by 0.5% on an annual basis. If these expectations are confirmed, the RBNZ will probably decide to keep the interest rate at 5.25%, refraining from further changes.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6254, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6177, 0.6158, 0.6124, 0.6100.USD/CAD: markets are waiting for Canadian inflation data for AugustDuring the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair is making attempts to recover, but the US dollar is under pressure due to rising expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve begins today, and according to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), the probability of such a decision is now estimated at 59%. Investors also expect further rate changes before the end of the year.Canada's inflation statistics attract the attention of traders, as they may affect the future decision of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy. Preliminary forecasts indicate a slowdown in the consumer price index in August — from 0.4% to 0.1% on a monthly basis, and maintaining at the level of 2.5% in annual terms. In addition, it is expected to publish data on the start of construction of houses, which are likely to show a decrease from 279.5 thousand to 256.0 thousand. Earlier, the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, expressed concerns about the cooling of the labor market, falling oil prices and a decrease in immigration. He admitted that the interest rate adjustment may be more significant than expected, up to 50 basis points, which is twice the current rate of decline of 25 basis points. This may become necessary if the economy demonstrates sufficient resilience. In August, the unemployment rate in Canada rose to 6.6%, compared with a low of 4.8% in 2022, while in the United States this figure reached 4.2% against 3.4%. Macklem expressed concern about the weakness of the labor market, noting that the employment rate and the number of vacancies had decreased to the levels observed before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since June, the Bank of Canada has already lowered the rate from 5.0% to 4.25%, which has slowed inflation to 2.5%, bringing it closer to the target level of 2.0%. Macklem stressed that a further decrease in inflation may be the reason for a more significant rate change.Resistance levels: 1.3607, 1.3622, 1.3650, 1.3675.Support levels: 1.3582, 1.3550, 1.3524, 1.3500.

The USD/CAD pair is adjusted at 1.3569, which is due to the weakening of the US dollar.The Canadian dollar is showing strengthening, remaining above the levels of the previous week. It was supported by wholesale trade data: in July, the volume of wholesale sales, excluding oil and cereals, increased by 1.1% on a monthly basis and by 0.4% to 82.7 billion Canadian dollars annually. Growth was recorded in four of the seven main sectors, with the largest contribution from trade in agricultural goods (+9.2%) and beverages (+1.7%). At the same time, the segments of goods for personal use and household showed the largest reduction — by 22.2% and 2.5%, respectively. As a result of the increase in production, inventories of goods increased from -0.1% to 0.5% in July, and the ratio of inventories to sales remained at 1.54 points, which indicates a stable situation in the sector.Since the beginning of the week, the US dollar has been showing a decline and is trading at 101.00 in the USDX index. Investors practically did not react to the data on price indices in international trade published on Friday: in August, the export price index fell by 0.7% in both annual and monthly terms, after rising by 1.2% earlier. The import price index was -0.3% on a monthly basis and 0.8% on an annual basis, which is lower than the previous value of 1.7%. This indicates a slowdown in U.S. foreign trade for the second month in a row, which may be due to higher interest rates in the country, while other leading economies are already starting to lower them.Resistance levels: 1.3610, 1.3710.Support levels: 1.3540, 1.3440.AUD/USD: after correction, the pair moves back to growthThe AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, returning to the "bullish" trend after a slight correction observed at the end of last week. Now the instrument is trying to overcome the level of 0.6725, which is facilitated by the expectation of changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System, in particular, a possible adjustment in the cost of borrowing.Investors also drew attention to macroeconomic indicators from China, released over the weekend. The data turned out to be weaker than expected: in August, industrial production increased by 4.5%, slowing from 5.1%, although 4.8% was forecast. Retail sales also showed a decrease, increasing by 2.1% against the expected 2.5% and the previous figure of 2.7%. Since the beginning of the year, investments in urban economy have decreased to 3.4%, which turned out to be slightly below expectations of 3.5%.On Thursday at 03:30 (GMT+2), the market will pay attention to the Australian labor market report for August. Employment is expected to decline from 58.2 thousand to 30.8 thousand, while the unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.2%. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chief Economist Sarah Hunter earlier noted that the labor sector continues to recover, although population growth is outpacing employment figures. Companies are also reducing the amount of hours worked, which may affect the decisions of the regulator. In order to combat inflation, the RBA has already raised the interest rate by 425 basis points, bringing it to a 12—year high of 4.35%.Resistance levels: 0.6732, 0.6750, 0.6775, 0.6800.Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6675, 0.6642, 0.6622.USD/JPY: analysts do not expect a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this monthThe USD/JPY pair is showing a downward trend, approaching the July 2023 lows at 140.20. The depreciation of the US currency is due to expectations of a change in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). The Fed's two-day meeting starts tomorrow, and the baseline scenario still assumes an interest rate cut of 25 basis points. However, the probability of a more significant 50 basis point decline has increased markedly and, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, is 59% compared to 30% last week. In addition, market participants are waiting for signals from the Fed about a possible additional rate cut before the end of the year.The Bank of Japan will also hold a meeting this week, and although the regulator is expected to maintain its current monetary policy, the comments of the bank's representatives will be carefully analyzed by investors. In addition, Japanese inflation data for August will be published on Friday. Forecasts indicate a slight acceleration in the consumer price index, excluding fresh food prices, from 2.7% to 2.8%. If the forecasts come true, this may strengthen the position of the Bank of Japan on the issue of further interest rate increases. According to a Reuters poll, none of the 52 economists expects a rate increase at the September 19-20 meeting. However, 54% of respondents assume that changes in monetary policy are possible by the end of the year, which is slightly less than 57% last month. The median forecast indicates an increase in the rate by 25 basis points, reaching the level of 0.50%. Among a narrower group of 23 experts, the majority favored a policy adjustment in December.Resistance levels: 141.00, 141.76, 142.50, 143.35.Support levels: 140.00, 139.35, 138.50, 137.50.Oil market analysisAt the beginning of the week, Brent Crude Oil prices showed a weak downward momentum, developing after Friday's decline, when quotes retreated from peak values on September 6. They are currently testing the 71.20 level, trying to break it down. Investors are awaiting the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which begins tomorrow. Analysts predict a reduction in the interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%, and are also waiting for signals regarding further steps by the regulator.Oil dynamics are also under pressure from the recent decision of OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which lowered their forecasts for oil demand due to the slowdown in the economies of Europe and China. This concern intensified after the publication of macroeconomic data: in August, industrial production fell from 5.1% to 4.5%, which was lower than expectations of 4.8%. Retail sales also fell from 2.7% to 2.1%, although 2.5% was forecast. In addition, analysts note a slowdown in oil demand growth, linking this to China's transition to more environmentally friendly fuels and a decrease in gasoline demand in developed countries. Brent futures prices have fallen from a high of $82.0 per barrel in early August to a three-year low below $70.0 per barrel. This happened despite a reduction in Libyan oil supplies and a continued decrease in reserves. According to forecasts, the indicator will grow by only 900 thousand barrels per day in 2024 and by 950 thousand barrels per day. barrels per day next year, which may lead to a decrease in consumption in developed countries by almost 2 thousand barrels per day compared to the level preceding the COVID-19 pandemic.Resistance levels: 72.00, 73.00, 74.00, 75.04.Support levels: 71.00, 70.00, 69.00, 68.00.

EUR/GBP: ECB has reduced all key interest ratesThe EUR/GBP pair is showing an uncertain decline, continuing to develop the downward trend that began to form the day before. The instrument is testing support at 0.8430, and traders are assessing the consequences of the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) announced at yesterday's meeting.The ECB has decided to reduce the key interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%, while also reducing the refinancing rate and margin loans. This decision was expected and was due to a decrease in business activity in the region and a slowdown in consumer price growth. Despite this, inflation in the eurozone countries remains high, especially in the service sector, which led to a revision of the forecasts for core inflation for 2024 and 2025. In the updated forecasts, the economic growth rate was adjusted downward — from 0.9% to 0.8% this year and from 1.4% to 1.3% next year. However, disagreements remain within the ECB: Some officials advocate further rate cuts due to the slowdown in economic activity, while others urge caution for fear of renewed inflationary pressures.Meanwhile, British investors are analyzing possible steps by the Bank of England, although the likelihood of monetary policy easing at the next meeting looks insignificant after the recent 25 basis point rate cut. Economic activity in the UK remains weak — gross domestic product (GDP) showed zero growth in July for the second month in a row. Industrial production is also showing a decline: in annual terms, volumes decreased by 1.2%, and in monthly terms — by 0.8%. The country's manufacturing sectors are facing a more severe slowdown than expected, which raises additional concerns among analysts.Resistance levels: 0.8450, 0.8465, 0.8483, 0.8500.Support levels: 0.8430, 0.8410, 0.8391, 0.8370.USD/CHF: dollar lost ground after reaching local peaksThe USD/CHF pair shows a slight decrease, continuing to develop a weak "bearish" trend, which formed after the instrument rolled back from the local highs recorded on August 21. The pair is currently trading near the 0.8500 level, trying to break through this support downwards, in anticipation of the publication of important macroeconomic data that may affect further market dynamics.Today at 16:00 (GMT+2), the release of five-year inflation expectations and the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected. Forecasts suggest that inflation expectations will remain at 3.0% or show a slight decrease, and consumer confidence is likely to increase to 68.0 points from the previous 67.9. These data are unlikely to have a strong impact on expectations for the upcoming Fed meeting scheduled for next week. Most analysts predict a 25 basis point reduction in the interest rate, although the probability of a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction is estimated at 20.0-25.0%. It is also expected that the Fed's accompanying statement may signal further rate cuts before the end of the year.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which took place the day before. The ECB has decided to reduce the interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%, and also allowed for the possibility of further changes in monetary policy before the end of the year. This decision may put pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is likely to revise its monetary parameters at a meeting scheduled for September 26.Resistance levels: 0.8541, 0.8570, 0.8600, 0.8630.Support levels: 0.8500, 0.8450, 0.8400, 0.8365.USD/TRY: 15.0 thousand companies have closed in Turkey since JanuaryAfter three days of decline, which led to an update of the minimum of September 9, the USD/TRY pair began to recover and approached the level of 34.0000. However, market activity is noticeably decreasing amid expectations of a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, where monetary policy issues will be discussed.At the same time, Turkish business is facing serious difficulties due to high inflation, which exceeded 75% at the beginning of the year, instability of the lira exchange rate, rising electricity prices and a decrease in export orders. In the first seven months of 2024, 15.0 thousand companies in Turkey reported closures, an increase of 28% compared to the same period last year. Markets hope for a stabilization of the situation by the end of the year, but the Central Bank of Turkey has kept the interest rate at 50% for more than five months. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had previously expressed hope for inflation to fall below 50% in September, the latest report for August showed a slowdown in consumer price growth from 61.78% to 51.97%.Against this background, the international agency Fitch upgraded Turkey's credit rating from "B+" to "BB-", noting an improvement in foreign economic conditions and a reduction in foreign currency liabilities. At the same time, experts warn that premature easing of monetary policy may once again increase inflationary risks and pose a threat to macroeconomic stability and the balance of payments.Resistance levels: 34.0000, 34.0939, 34.2325, 34.3000.Support levels: 33.9022, 33.8000, 33.6722, 33.5450.AUD/NZD: New Zealand economic growth puts pressure on AUDAs of September 13, 2024, the AUD/NZD pair is trading near the level of 1.0869, showing slight fluctuations against the background of conflicting data from New Zealand and Australia. After several attempts to break through the support level at 1.0800, the pair shows a tendency to sideways movement, which is associated with instability in both economies.Economic data from New Zealand, such as strong growth in consumer spending and improved employment figures, support the New Zealand dollar. According to analysts, New Zealand's economic activity may grow by 1.1% in the third quarter, which is higher than expected for Australia, where economic growth is slowing. In turn, Australia is facing weakening demand for commodities and a decline in business activity. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently left the interest rate at 4.10%, which disappointed investors who expected more decisive steps to combat the slowdown in the economy.Experts note that, despite the short-term strength of the New Zealand dollar, a steady recovery in the Australian economy and a possible increase in RBA interest rates in the future may return the Australian dollar to a more confident position against the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1020.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.

EUR/USD: ECB rate cut is forecast by a quarter of a percentThe EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1015 mark, being close to the local lows recorded on August 16. Market activity remains low as investors await the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be announced today at 14:15 (GMT+2). It is expected that the regulator will reduce the main interest rate by 25 basis points — from 4.25% to 4.00%, and the deposit rate — from 3.75% to 3.50%. However, inflationary risks remain significant. Recent data on the growth of the eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP) for the quarter were revised from 0.3% to 0.2%, which, along with a deterioration in business sentiment, raises concerns about economic growth in the region. Although the market is not considering the possibility of reducing rates by 50 basis points, the situation may change depending on incoming data. It is likely that Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB, will maintain a rhetoric focused on flexibility and analysis of economic indicators at each meeting. Investors will closely monitor the comments of other ECB representatives in order to adjust their expectations regarding the regulator's further steps by the end of the year.In parallel, inflation data from the United States, published on Wednesday, showed a sharp slowdown in annual dynamics to 2.5% in August, which is lower than the forecast of 2.6%. Monthly inflation was 0.2%, as expected. The core consumer price index (excluding food and energy) remained at 3.2% year-on-year and rose slightly from 0.2% to 0.3% over the month. These data did not change market expectations regarding a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve by 25 basis points in September.Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1100, 1.1150, 1.1200.Support levels: 1.1000, 1.0964, 1.0930, 1.0900.GBP/USD: UK GDP for July remained unchangedThe GBP/USD pair is reducing positions from annual highs against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar and is currently trading at 1.3044.Economic data from the UK for July turned out to be weaker than expected, which did not allow the pound to move to an upward trend. Gross domestic product (GDP) in monthly terms remained at the same level, while experts predicted growth of 0.2%. On an annualized basis, GDP increased from 0.7% to 1.2%, but this turned out to be lower than the projected 1.4%. The weakening of the economy is due to a drop in industrial production: in July, its volumes decreased by 0.8% on a monthly basis and by 1.2% on an annual basis. The National Institute of Economics and Social Research (NIESR) has revised its forecast for GDP growth in August from 0.5% to 0.3% in quarterly terms. Against this background, investors' attention is also focused on employment indicators. In July, the number of employed increased from 97.0 thousand to 265.0 thousand, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits in August decreased to 23.7 thousand, with expectations of 95.5 thousand. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, and average wages slowed to 4.0% against forecasts of 4.1%. These indicators may allow the Bank of England to continue easing monetary policy. It is expected that at the meeting on September 19, the regulator may reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points.Resistance levels: 1.3080, 1.3260.Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2850.USD/JPY: exchange rate is falling under the influence of Naoki Tamura's speechThe USD/JPY pair rose to the level of 142.98, which was facilitated by statements by Naoki Tamura, a member of the Board of the Bank of Japan.On Thursday, Tamura, answering questions about a possible increase in interest rates by the end of the year or in the first quarter of next year, noted that the timing will depend on current economic and inflationary conditions. Unlike the United States and Europe, where changes in rates occur more quickly, Japan is likely to act more restrained. According to him, the country's economy is developing in accordance with forecasts made in July, but excessive attention to market stability may limit the freedom of action of the Bank of Japan in conducting an adequate monetary policy in the face of changing price dynamics. Tamura also stressed that undesirable volatility can complicate the management of the economy, so it is important to act gradually to avoid sharp fluctuations in the markets. In the long term, the regulator should follow fundamental economic indicators, carefully raising rates and assessing the impact of each step. Against the background of these statements, the USD/JPY pair reached new heights, exceeding Wednesday's maximum at 142.55 and rising to 143.04.Resistance levels: 144.10, 147.00, 149.25.Support levels: 140.80, 137.63, 134.00.Silver market analysisThe XAG/USD pair continues to move within the corrective trend, trading at around 28.73. At the same time, the dynamics of silver is significantly inferior to gold, which remains at a level close to historical highs, demonstrating a more stable position in the precious metals market.The demand for silver futures is noticeably decreasing: the average daily trading volume for the current week fell from 67.2 thousand to 51.4 thousand contracts. Option activity also remains at a minimum level — only 9,699 contracts were concluded the day before, which is one of the lowest figures since the beginning of summer. Such a drop in activity indicates that investors do not expect significant movements in the price of silver in the short term and prefer to refrain from transactions with this asset, waiting for clearer signals from the market. As a result, silver is now less attractive compared to gold and foreign exchange assets, and significant changes in the dynamics of quotations should not be expected in the near future.Resistance levels: 29.10, 30.10.Support levels: 28.40, 26.60.

EUR/AUD: Australia's economic indicators have reduced pressure on the euroThe EUR/AUD pair is trading at 1.6627 on the morning of September 5, showing a slight increase of about 0.01% compared to the previous trading session. Market activity remains relatively stable despite the volatility caused by external macroeconomic data.The economic situation in the eurozone continues to be unstable. The index of business activity in the services sector (PMI) in August amounted to 47.9 points, which is lower than forecasts and indicates a slowdown in economic activity. At the same time, GDP data for the second quarter showed an increase of 0.3%, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The continued pressure on the eurozone economy is due to rising energy prices and the consequences of geopolitical instability.The Australian economy is also facing challenges. Recent retail sales data showed a decrease in the growth rate from 0.5% to 0.4%, indicating weakness in domestic demand. Despite this, the labor market remains stable, and the unemployment rate is at 3.6%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did not change the interest rate at the last meeting, keeping it at 4.1%, however, the head of the RBA announced the possibility of further tightening monetary policy in the event of a deterioration in the inflationary situation.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.NZD/USD: a tool on the way to corrective growthThe NZD/USD pair shows a slight increase, continuing to develop a weak upward momentum, which was formed after recovering from local lows reached on August 23. Now the instrument is trying to break through the 0.6200 mark, while market participants are waiting for the publication of important data on the US labor market, which will take place at the end of the week. Today at 14:15 (GMT+2), a report from ADP on private sector employment for August will be presented. If the forecasts come true and the employment rate will rise from 122.0 thousand. up to 145.0 thousand, the US dollar may receive additional support, which will reduce the likelihood of softening the Fed's rhetoric at the September meeting.This week, investors also paid attention to the dairy product price index, a key export item of New Zealand. In August, the indicator decreased by 0.4% after an increase of 5.5% in July. Additionally, data on the ANZ commodity price index was published, which increased by 2.1% after falling by 1.7% in the previous month.Markets continue to analyze the next steps of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which recently cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, which happened a little earlier than expected. This decision has caused optimism among businesses and consumers, strengthening confidence in the economic recovery. According to the regulator's forecasts, by the middle of next year the rate may fall below 4.50%. According to Centrix, the level of mortgage delinquency remains 12.0% higher than last year, but there is a positive trend against the background of lower borrowing costs, which contributes to the correction of consumer spending. Despite the recent rate hike, New Zealand house prices remain 19.0% below the November 2021 peak, less than half of the more than 40.0% increase during the COVID-19 pandemic.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6254, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6177, 0.6153, 0.6130, 0.6100.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan noted moderate growth ratesThe USD/JPY pair remains near the minimum recorded on August 5 at 143.50, while market activity remains subdued, as investors await the publication of data on the American labor market.Statistics from Japan continue to show mixed results. In July, the wage level fell from 4.5% to 3.6%, which exceeded forecasts of 3.1%, but this may put pressure on inflation, which the Bank of Japan focuses on when developing monetary policy. The index of business activity in the services sector remained at 53.7 points, below the expected 54.0 points, and the composite index rose from 52.5 to 52.9 points, falling short of the projected 53.0 points.Hajime Takata, a member of the Board of the Bank of Japan, noted that the Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace, despite the volatility in the markets in August. According to him, the country continues to move towards achieving the inflation target, and import prices are also rising. Takata added that the current real interest rate remains below the calculated one, which indicates favorable conditions for monetary policy. Experts expect that the Bank of Japan may raise the interest rate again by the end of the year.Resistance levels: 144.00, 145.00, 146.00, 147.00.Support levels: 143.35, 142.50, 141.68, 141.00.Silver market analysisDuring the Asian session, the XAG/USD (silver) pair demonstrates multidirectional dynamics, remaining near the level of 28.25. On the eve of the quotes were adjusted, retreating from the lows recorded on August 15. The main pressure on the price is exerted by the revision of short- and medium-term strategies of investors in response to large-scale stock sales, which also affected commodity markets.The activity of market participants remains low in anticipation of the publication of key data on the US labor market, scheduled for the end of the week. These data may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on future monetary policy at the September meeting. The baseline scenario assumes a reduction in the interest rate by 25 basis points, but the probability of a more significant reduction by 50 basis points is estimated at no higher than 35.0%. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector is expected to grow from 114.0 thousand. up to 160.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage will increase from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 3.6% to 3.7% on an annual basis. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%. Weaker data may increase the likelihood of a change in the monetary exchange rate, which will support the asset.Resistance levels: 28.30, 28.68, 29.00, 29.35.Support levels: 28.00, 27.60, 27.30, 27.00.

EUR/USD: growth after the minimum level was set in AugustThe euro/dollar exchange rate shows a slight rise after the previous decline, as a result of which the currency pair reached new local lows recorded on August 19. At the moment, it may be possible to find the 1.1050 mark, pending the release of data on the introduction into the manufacturing sector of Eurasia, Scheduled for 11:00 (GMT+2).According to analysts' expectations, the producer price index should slow down from 0.5% to 0.3% in July, and its annual growth is projected from -3.2% to -2.5%. Despite the publication of these data, it is unlikely that this will significantly affect the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) on monetary policy. This is especially important in the context of the preparation of the US Federal Reserve System for lowering interest rates in September. According to Reuters sources, some ECB officials believe that the eurozone economy continues to weaken, and the risk of recession remains, as many companies are cutting staff. This puts pressure on consumer spending, which requires a more aggressive rate cut by the regulator. In particular, the same as in the case of similar data on business activity in the world: expect that the commercial injection will produce the public sector from S&P, the global indicator was at the level of 51.2 punts, the indicator for Russian companies was 53.3 punts.In the end, it was data on equity activity due to investments in enterprise management (ISM): the index in the manufacturing sector increased from 46.8 to 47.2 points, but stopped in the field of visibility. This result indicates a slowdown in the industrial sector, which contributes to expectations of a policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Most experts predict that by the end of the year the rate will be reduced three times by a total of 100 basis points. Today, markets are waiting for the publication of data on production orders and the monthly report of the Federal Reserve — the so-called "Beige Book", which may influence future rate decisions. Current forecasts suggest a possible rate cut of 50 basis points with a probability of about 30%.Resistance levels: 1.1100, 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1243.Support levels: 1.1047, 1.1000, 1.0964, 1.0930.USD/CHF: astronomical index reached its highest in two yearsDuring the Asian session, the dollar/franc pair is trying to overcome support at 0.8480, continuing to develop the downward trend that formed earlier after the US dollar declined from its peak values of August 23.On Monday, US trading floors were closed due to the celebration of Labor Day, and the attention of market participants switched to macroeconomic data from Switzerland. In July, retail sales in real terms increased from -2.6% to 2.7%, exceeding forecasts that expected values of -0.2%. The manufacturing industry recorded quarterly growth of 2.6%, and the construction industry — by 0.1%, but retail trade declined by 0.4% after two quarters of growth. Consumer spending in April-June increased by 0.3%, and government spending by 0.2%, while exports decreased by 5.0% and imports by 13.8%. The business activity index for August rose from 43.5 to 49.0 points, exceeding preliminary expectations of 44.0 points. Swiss GDP growth in the second quarter was also in the spotlight: the indicator increased from 0.5% to 0.7% in quarterly terms and from 0.6% to 1.8% annually. In addition, the consumer price index in August slowed from 1.3% to 1.1%, remaining at around 0.0% in both annual and monthly terms. The decrease in inflation increased pressure on the Swiss National Bank in the context of further changes in interest rates, which were reduced by 25 basis points during the meeting on June 20.Resistance levels: 0.8500, 0.8559, 0.8600, 0.8630.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8400, 0.8365, 0.8331.USD/TRY: rates in Turkey rose to 51.97%The price in US dollars/EUROS is a moderate strengthening, as a result of which you reach a maximum amount of 34.0000. The position of the US dollar remains under pressure, mainly due to the high probability of a change in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve at the upcoming September meeting. In the baseline scenario, a rate cut of 25 basis points is expected, but upcoming economic reports may make adjustments. If labor market indicators weaken, the probability of a more significant rate cut — by 50 basis points — will increase. Analysts predict an increase in the number of new jobs in the US non-agricultural sector in August from 114.0 thousand to 160.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage may increase from 3.6% to 3.7% in annual terms and from 0.2% to 0.3% monthly. The unemployment rate is also expected to decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%. In the evening at 20:00 (Moscow time+2), market participants will follow the publication of the US Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a monthly report on the state of the economy that covers 12 federal districts and contains data on industry, agriculture, consumer spending, the real estate market and other key sectors. The administration, just in case, turns to the administration in the private sector.Meanwhile, the pressure on the Turkish lira remains in the face of the difficult economic situation in the country. Turkey's GDP grew by only 2.5% in the second quarter, which was the worst indicator since 2020. Consumer spending slowed to 1.6% after 7.0% in the previous period, while government spending was about 0.7%. Inflation in Turkey decreased significantly in August: from 61.78% to 51.97% on an annual basis, and from 3.23% to 2.47% on a monthly basis. The Turkish authorities expect the consumer price index to decrease to 40% by the end of the year. In response to the rapid fall of the lira, the Central Bank of Turkey has taken a number of measures to strengthen liquidity and increase deposits in the national currency. Among them: increasing growth targets for banks to increase the share of deposits in lira, including corporate accounts with currency protection in the calculation of these indicators, as well as increasing mandatory reserves in lira on blocked accounts by 5.0%.Resistance levels: 34.0800, 34.2325, 34.3000, 34.4091.Support levels: 34.0000, 33.9022, 33.8000, 33.6722.GBP/CAD: Canadian GDP data supported the growth of the national currencyThe GBP/CAD pair is in the currency range at 1.7670 at the level of September 4. Over the past day, the pair has decreased by 0.40% compared to the previous session, which is due to the general weakness of the pound against the background of mixed economic data from the UK and the influence of external factors on the Canadian dollar. Investors are waiting for comments from the Bank of England (BoE), which may be an addition to the policy towards Russia.The economic situation in the UK remains tense. The following data on the business activity index (PMI) for 2018 indicate a decrease in the indicator in the service sector to 47.9%, which indicates a focus on a key topic for acoustics. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter showed growth of only 0.2%, which is lower than forecasts of 0.3%, and reinforces expectations that the Bank of England may begin to reduce interest rates in the coming months. We expect that investments in the UK will increase to 6.8% per year due to investments in September, which may weaken the impact on you in the context of the Far East.In Canada, the situation also remains influenced by macroeconomic factors. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.1% in the second quarter, which was higher than the expected 1.8%. However, despite the positive data, the Canadian dollar faced pressure due to falling oil prices. In particular, oil prices fell to $82.25 per barrel, due to an understanding of demand from construction China and weak business partners in Russia. In addition, the Bank of Canada is expected to decide to lower interest rates at the next meeting if the slowdown in economic growth continues.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.

EUR/USD: positive changes in the European economyThe EUR/USD pair continues to decline, trading near the level of 1.1055, remaining well below the annual highs.The euro is supported by stable macroeconomic statistics: Italy's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.2% in the second quarter compared to the previous month, meeting expectations, and increased from 0.7% to 0.9% in annual terms. In addition, the index of business activity in the Italian manufacturing sector increased from 47.4 to 49.4 points. In Germany and France, there is an improvement in similar indicators: in Germany, the index rose from 42.1 to 42.4 points, and in France — from 42.1 to 43.9 points. Although the values remain below the 50.0 level, this may indicate the beginning of economic recovery in the EU.The US dollar, which strengthened after reaching a one-year low, is trading at 101.20 in the USDX index. On Monday, in connection with the celebration of Labor Day, the American stock exchanges were closed, so investors' attention turned to the upcoming business activity data. It is expected that in August the index in the manufacturing sector will decrease from 49.6 to 48.0 points, and a similar indicator from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) may increase from 46.8 to 47.5 points. Data on the price index of personal consumption expenditures, published on Friday, did not show the expected growth in July from 2.5% to 2.6%, which increased the likelihood of a Fed interest rate cut by 50 basis points in September. About 33% of analysts consider this a likely scenario, while more than 60% expect a decrease of 25 basis points.Resistance levels: 1.1084, 1.1190.Support levels: 1.1040, 1.0940.GBP/USD: UK manufacturing hits two-year highThe GBP/USD pair is showing negative dynamics, trading near the 1.3120 mark with a possible breakdown downwards. The pound sterling is declining again after an uncertain attempt at corrective growth, which took place the day before, when the American stock exchanges were closed due to the celebration of Labor Day.Economic statistics published in the UK on Monday failed to significantly support the pound. The S&P Global UK index rose from 52.1 to 52.5 points, reaching its highest since June 2022, which was in line with experts' forecasts. There is a positive trend in the manufacturing industry: pressure on prices, both for businesses and for customers, is easing, which is due to a slowdown in the growth of costs for imported resources, which previously grew for eight months due to supply problems and increased logistics costs. Today, the pound is receiving some support thanks to retail sales data from the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC), which showed an increase in a comparable indicator from 0.3% to 0.8% in August.The focus of American investors' attention today is on statistics on business activity in the manufacturing sector, which will be published at 16:00 (GMT+2). The ISM index is expected to rise from 46.8 to 47.5 points in August, while the S&P Global index is likely to remain at 48.0 points. At the end of the week, data on private sector employment from ADP will be published, as well as final information from the US Department of Labor, which may adjust expectations regarding a possible interest rate cut at the September Fed meeting. Currently, only about 30% of analysts suggest that the rate may be reduced by 50 basis points at once.Resistance levels: 1.3150, 1.3188, 1.3250, 1.3300.Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2948.AUD/CHF: Australian GDP data may put pressure on the pairThe AUD/CHF pair is trading with downward dynamics at the level of 0.6405 at the auction on September 3, showing a decrease of 0.42% compared to the previous trading session. Sellers are holding control despite the minor correction attempts seen last week.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. According to data published the day before, retail sales in July 2024 did not change compared to June, remaining at 0.0%, which is lower than forecasts of 0.3%. This adds pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which has already warned about the possible retention of the current level of interest rates to combat inflation. The inflation rate in the country remains above the target range of the RBA (2.0-3.0%) and is 5.2% in annual terms for July 2024. The services sector, according to the business activity index (PMI), also slowed to 50.2 points, which is lower than the forecast of 51.0 points. Australia's GDP data for the second quarter will be published tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+2): the figure is expected to be 1.8% year-on-year, which is 0.3% lower compared to the previous quarter, which may also put pressure on the Australian dollar.The Swiss economy is showing signs of resilience amid low inflation and stable growth. The head of the Swiss National Bank (NBS) noted that inflation in the country is at 1.5% in annual terms, which is below expectations, and the Central Bank is ready to continue the policy of tight interest rates. Today, data on the business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector was published, which decreased from 47.3 to 46.0 points, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. However, low inflation and positive data on the unemployment rate, which remained at 2.0% in August, continue to support the Swiss franc.Resistance levels: 0.6450, 0.6500.Support levels: 0.6400, 0.6350.Silver market analysisAs of September 3, 2024, the XAG/USD (silver) pair shows a moderate decline, trading around the level of 23.50 USD per ounce, which is 0.45% less than the closing level of the previous trading session.Macroeconomic statistics from the United States, published the day before, put pressure on silver quotes. The manufacturing activity index (PMI) from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) in August showed an increase from 46.8 to 47.5 points, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations, which assumed a value around 47.0 points. Data on the consumer price index (CPI) for August were also published: the indicator rose to 3.2% in annual terms, which is slightly higher than the July value of 3.0%. Market expectations regarding a possible increase in the US Federal Reserve interest rate in September remain uncertain, but the probability of a 25 basis point increase has increased to 35.0%.In turn, the situation is also affected by the growth in demand for the US dollar, which strengthened to 101.20 in the USDX index, putting additional pressure on the price of silver. The recovery of industrial activity in China, which was reflected in the growth of the index of business activity in the services sector to 53.3 points, also supports the stabilization of the value of industrial metals, including silver, but the impact of these factors remains limited at the moment. US private sector employment data from ADP is expected tomorrow, as well as the publication of final GDP data for the second quarter. Forecasts indicate a possible increase from 2.4% to 2.5% in annual terms, which may increase pressure on silver in the short term if the data turn out to be higher than expected.Resistance levels: 23.80, 24.20.Support levels: 23.20, 22.80.

EUR/GBP: weak German GDP data increased pressure on the euroThe EUR/GBP pair is at the level of 0.8575 and shows sideways dynamics as of the trading session on September 2, which is 0.12% less than the previous session.The economic situation in the eurozone remains tense against the background of recent data on German GDP, which in the second quarter of 2024 showed a decrease of 0.1% on a monthly basis and stagnation on an annual basis. These data reinforce concerns about a possible recession in Europe's largest economy. Also, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) fell to 43.7 points in August, which further worsens forecasts for the euro. Tomorrow at 12:00 (GMT+2), the final estimate of eurozone GDP for the second quarter will be published: an increase of 0.1% in quarterly terms and a decrease of 0.4% on an annual basis is projected. Additionally, traders' attention will be focused on data on the consumer price index (CPI), which is expected to reach 5.2% year-on-year.In the UK, the economic situation is also worrying. The Bank of England has stopped the cycle of raising interest rates, fearing negative consequences for economic growth, predicting an increase in GDP in the third quarter of only 0.1%. Nevertheless, the labor market remains stable, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%, although wage growth has slowed. The publication of the manufacturing activity index (PMI) for August showed a decrease to 43.0 points, indicating further problems in the industrial sector. Tomorrow at 09:30 (GMT+2), data on the index of business activity in the service sector for August will be released, which may affect market sentiment.Resistance levels: 0.8610, 0.8670.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8490.USD/CHF: Franc under pressure due to weak export demandThe USD/CHF pair is trading at 0.8490 against the background of weak dynamics of the US dollar. At the trading session on September 2, the pair shows a slight decrease, which is 0.04% lower than the previous session.The economic situation in the United States remains mixed. On Friday, September 6, data on the unemployment rate are expected, which may show a decrease from 3.6% to 3.5%, as well as indicators of job growth outside agriculture, projected at 170 thousand. These data may affect market expectations regarding the Fed's further monetary policy, which is likely to continue the cycle of rate hikes to control inflation, given the weak dynamics of the economy and the labor market.In Switzerland, the situation remains stable, but the head of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan, pointed to the pressure exerted on the country's economy by a strong franc and weak demand for exports, especially to the EU. The economic forecast indicates a decrease in the leading KOF index from 101.0 to 100.6 points, which also puts pressure on the national currency. In the coming weeks, discussions may follow on a possible easing of monetary policy to support the economy, which will have an impact on the dynamics of the franc.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.AUD/JPY: Australian GDP growth supported the strengthening of the pairThe AUD/JPY pair is trading at 94.60 and shows an upward trend as of the trading session on September 2, which is 0.23% higher compared to the previous session.In Australia, the economic situation remains under pressure amid a slowdown in retail sales growth, which showed zero growth in July, which is lower than analysts' forecasts of 0.3%. These data reinforce expectations of a possible easing of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which, according to its head Michelle Bullock, maintains a cautious approach to further rate cuts, despite projected inflation of 3.2% at the end of the year. Tomorrow, September 3, at 02:30 (GMT+2), data on Australia's gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter will be published, growth of 0.4% on a quarterly basis and 1.7% on an annual basis is expected, which may support the Australian dollar.In Japan, the situation remains stable, but industrial production data for July showed a decrease of 0.8% on a monthly basis, which turned out to be worse than market expectations. The unemployment rate in the country remains at 2.6%, and the consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 3.3% in annual terms. Tomorrow at 01:50 (GMT+2), statistics on changes in the wage level in Japan will be published, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year is expected. The market will also be influenced by the upcoming data on the index of business activity in the services sector (PMI), which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 52.2 points.Resistance levels: 95.00, 95.50.Support levels: 94.00, 93.50.Gold market analysisAs of September 2, 2024, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is trading at about $2,515 per ounce, showing a moderate increase of 0.45% compared to the previous trading session. Gold continues to move in an uptrend, supported by demand for safe assets in the face of global economic uncertainty and a weakening US dollar.The economic situation in the United States remains a key factor influencing the dynamics of gold. Recent employment data showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in August 2024, below the forecast of 4.3%. At the same time, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year in July, which somewhat eased concerns about inflationary pressures. These data contributed to the strengthening of the dollar, which has a restraining effect on the growth of gold prices.The situation in the international arena also remains tense. The slowdown in economic growth in China and the ongoing geopolitical risks associated with conflicts in the Middle East are supporting the demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Additionally, Chinese industrial production data for August showed a slowdown in growth to 3.9% year-on-year, below the expected 4.2%, reinforcing investors' concerns about the prospects for global economic recovery.Resistance levels: 2510.00, 2525.00, 2540.00, 2555.00.Support levels: 2500.00, 2483.64, 2470.00, 2450.00.