Forex analytical forecast for today, October 14, for USD/TRY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD & Crude oil

AUD/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, October 14, for USD/TRY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD & Crude oil

USD/TRY: Turkish leader puts pressure on the lira

Within the Asian trading session the currency pair USD/TRY shows an ambiguous trend of quotations' movement, testing the level of 18.5750.

The Turkish regulator continues to keep to its strategy of gradual rate correction as it is influenced by the Turkish president who said the financial authorities are neutral to the global practice of monetary policy tightening by the leading central banks and forecasts of experts or analytical companies. The government gives priority to attracting new flows of investment into the economy, increasing production capacity and increasing exports; fighting inflation and supporting the lira are also outlined as a priority. The day before the Central Bank of Turkey reduced the rate to 12% for the current year, while for September consumer price growth reached 83.45% year-on-year, but statistics TurkStat (Turkish Statistical Institute) claims a 1.0% year-on-year increase in August, showing a positive trend for the 26th month in a row since the global pandemic coronavirus infection was announced in mid-spring 2020. However, the pace of appreciation has been significantly slowed, with industrial capacity declining due to the global economic downturn.

  • Resistance levels: 18.6343, 18.7500, 18.8500, 19.0000.
  • Support levels: 18.5000, 18.3737, 18.3000, 18.1500.

AUD/USD: The Aussie retreated from a record low

The Australian currency traded moderately higher, moving away from the April 2020 support level reached earlier, where the AUD/USD instrument reached 0.6170. The currency pair was influenced by the release of statistics on consumer price growth, which strengthened the scenario that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates as part of tightening monetary parameters.

Investors will want to assess inflation data in China and its impact on the region's economy at the end of the week. According to the statistics, consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in September, adding 0.3% for the month, down 0.1% earlier, while analysts forecasted growth of 0.4%. Manufacturers cut the price index to 0.9% from 2.3% in the same period, contrary to market expectations of a 1.0% gain. The Chinese regulator is refraining from the global monetary policy trend algorithm, and the current publications only support the resolve of the Celestial Empire's banking authorities.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6362, 0.6450, 0.6522 and 0.6572.
  • Support levels: 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6140 and 0.6100.

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GBP/USD: U.S. inflation supports the pair's correction

Earlier the GBP/USD trading instrument gained 2.14% due to the released U.S. inflation statistics for September.

Meanwhile, lackluster British data had limited the pound's strengthening potential as the national GDP rose to 2.0% for the year including a correction in September that did not meet economists' expectations of a strengthening to 2.4%. Manufacturing and industrial production slipped 1.6% in August, beating estimates for a decline of 0.2% and an earlier -1.1% decline. The British regulator increased purchases of gilts to stimulate the bond market by triggering QE, while the buildup of monetary liquidity, according to the rules of the economy, is hitting the national currency.

  • Resistance levels: 1.1370, 1.1475, 1.1695.
  • Support levels: 1.0940, 1.0600.

WTI Crude Oil Signals

Asian trading session shows mixed dynamics for WTI quotations, which is now testing the level of 88.00 as part of further strengthening.

On Thursday the data of EIA (Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy) on the level of "black gold" strategic reserves and oil products had a negative impact on the asset. As of October 7, the value grew 9.88 million barrels within the week, which allowed the total to reach 439.1 million barrels, contrary to analysts' expectations of correction by 1.75 million barrels, while in the previous period the reserves decreased by 1.336 million barrels. Such positive dynamics of correction became possible at the background of the US strategic reserve of 7.7 million barrels on the world oil market.

  • Resistance levels: 90.00, 92.58, 94.00, 95.00.
  • Support levels: 87.00, 85.00, 83.00, 81.00.
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Forex analytical forecast for today, December 1, for AUDUSD, NZDUSD, Gold & Crude oil
AUD/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, December 1, for AUDUSD, NZDUSD, Gold & Crude oil AUDUSD: pair has reached the level of 0.6800The Australian currency is showing moderate strengthening, having updated the local high of September 13, intending to overcome the resistance threshold of 0.6800.The macroeconomic block of published Australian data failed to affect the markets, meanwhile the traders' attention was spared by the sharp dip in inflation rate for October to 6.9% from 7.3% earlier, contrary to analysts' estimations of further strengthening to the level of 7.4%. Positive support for the instrument was provided by a 2.2% strengthening of the level of completed constructions for Q3, having earlier decreased by 2.0%. Thursday morning publications are not able to support the prospect for the bullish momentum in the pair. Thus, the industrial sector business activity from S&P Global for November moderately declined to 51.3 points from the previous 51.5 points, not justifying even the neutral estimates of the experts.Resistance levels: 0.6853, 0.6900, 0.6950 and 0.7000.Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6650.NZDUSD: updating local highs for AugustThe New Zealand dollar is trading up moderately, having updated the local highs of August 17.Positions in the NZD/USD trading instrument continue to remain under pressure amid weak New Zealand indicators. Thus, sentiment expectations from the ANZ for November updated to -13.7% from the previous -2.5%, disappointing analysts who expected only -2.1%. The head of the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) pointed out that the recession was deliberately triggered to lower the consumer price index, having earlier officially strengthened the percentage by 0,75% to the target of 4,25%, after which investors got the signal that in 2023 the value has a chance to reach the maximum peak of 5,5%. The regulator's updated expectations call for the economy to contract at 1.0% for the next 12 months beginning in mid-Spring and then remain at that level for the next six months before resuming growth.Resistance levels: 0.6350, 0.6400, 0.6450 and 0.6500.Support levels: 0.6288, 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6155.Gold pricesThe precious metal position in the market updated at 1780.00, intending to continue climbing to the level of 1785.00.Earlier, investors appreciated the speech of the US Federal Reserve chief, who signaled to the markets his intention to slow down the rate of interest rate correction from the next scheduled meeting. Thus, by mid-December, the agency will strengthen the key rate by 0.25%-0.50%, ending the systemic 0.75% hike. The official commented that the current decisions do not signal the end of the "hawkish" era of monetary policy, and the interest rate will remain high for a long time, where it will remain until the consumer price level corrects to the 2.0% target. Investors began to actively sell off the U.S. dollar, giving gold prices a boost on the market.Precious metals continue to see uncertainty in the market. According to the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), last week net speculative positions for commodities were 116.1 thousand instead of 126.3 thousand. Market bears remain the leaders among swap dealers with 191.153 thousand instead of bullish 95.880 thousand, but sellers cut 5.020 thousand contracts, while buyers strengthened 4.259 thousand, which from the outside looks like a correction.Resistance levels: 1785.00, 1806.00, 1877.00.Support levels: 1725.00, 1680.00.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the "black gold" of the Brent grade traded with contradictory dynamics, testing the 86.80 indicator.Positive dynamics for oil meets resistance with expectations of OPEC+ meeting announced for the end of the week. According to Reuters citing unnamed sources, the cartel does not intend to approve an additional reduction in production capacity of raw materials, following the example of the previous meeting in October, where the strategy was changed in favor of increasing plans for 2.0 million barrels per day in view of the unstable situation in the world markets. Recall that since December 5, investors expect an increased level of volatility in the market due to the beginning of the prohibition of supplies of oil by sea from Russia. Moreover, the European alliance countries want to agree on the upper price limit for the Russian raw materials, but could not come to an agreement, as uncertainty and disagreement among members of the bloc continue. It is likely that the European authorities' decision will cause growth in oil without a correction in the production quota.Resistance levels: 87.33, 89.20, 91.00 and 92.47.Support levels: 86.00, 83.89, 82.27, 81.00.
Dec 01, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 29, for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD & Crude oil
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 29, for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD & Crude oil EUR/USD: the EU currency is regaining lossesThe euro is trading in the upward dynamic, ending an ambiguous trend at the beginning of the week, where EUR/USD strengthened at the opening of Monday's session and hit the local high of June 29 at 1.0500. However the "bulls" lost the advantage, and by the end of the day session the pair plunged into negative values.The positive dynamics of the asset is supported by the correctional weakening of the American currency, which continues to be in a "bearish" trend due to the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve System meeting in November. The regulator sent a signal to the market that it is ready to reduce the rate of the key indicator correction already by the end of this year, which supports about 70% of the surveyed experts, expecting to see the next rate hike of 0.50%, and next year the rate may decrease to 0.25%.A positive stimulus for the euro was the briefing of ECB (European Central Bank) Governor Christine Lagarde, who earlier said that the regulator intends to continue strengthening the interest rate, ignoring the risks of economic slowdown, which will reduce business activity in the region. Recall, the agency has set the target level for inflation at 2.0%.Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0500 and 1.0550.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253, 1.0200.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)USD/CAD: the instrument finished the active growthIn the Asian trading session USD/CAD instrument showed slight decline, having earlier shown active strengthening, approaching the resistance level of 1.3500 and the local high of November 10.Investors are trying to realize the market outlook amid the comments of the ECB (European Central Bank) and U.S. Federal Reserve System officials, waiting for the next signals, as macroeconomic announcements include key data. This week, the U.S. will publish data on gross domestic product (GDP) for Q3, as well as report on employment for the current month. By the middle of the week, investors will want to assess China's October business activity which is of particular importance for the market amid mass protests due to tough quarantine measures. Today, on November 29, analysts expect the release of the updated statistics on the Canadian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for Q3. The preliminary estimate for the Canadian economy is expected to decline to 0.4% from 0.8% for the quarter, but the annual value may rise to 3.5% from the current 3.3%.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650.Support levels: 1.3440, 1.3356, 1.3300, 1.3226.NZD/USD: Downward channel continuesThe New Zealand currency holds the upward movement in value, trading at 0.6205, as the macroeconomic bloc contributed to a slight strengthening.According to publications from Stats.NZ (Statistics New Zealand), the employment rate in key sectors of the economy for October adjusted to 2.32 million jobs, but a corrective decline of 1.7% among primary industries, the manufacturing sector showed a strengthening of 0.6%, and the service sector remained flat. By age group, the biggest gain was in the 15-19 category, which added 18.5%, and the biggest outflow was in the 25-29 category, at -3.3%. Part-time employment in the first category is a major contributor to economic performance, so its strengthening was not able to have a significant impact.Resistance levels are at 0.6265 and 0.6467.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.5878.Oil market reviewThe benchmark Brent crude oil price is showing a correction, being slightly below the level of 87.00.There is no general consensus among Eurozone countries on the level of cap on Russian oil. As a diplomat stated the disagreement with the general concept was expressed by the delegation of Poland, continuing to demand the revision of the permissible price level for "black gold" in the range of 65.00-70.00, because based on the current market realities the specified limit does not put any pressure on the Russian economy. Moreover, according to information from market platforms, yesterday the Urals oil brand reached the level of 51.96. Discussions continue, and experts doubt that all parties will agree on the deal by December 5, when the restrictive measures are due to enter into force as part of the eighth package of sanctions, including a ban on oil supplies from Russia via the sea route.Resistance levels: 88.20, 95.00.Support levels: 82.80, 77.50.
Nov 29, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 28, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, Gold & Brent Oil
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 28, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, Gold & Brent Oil USDJPY: The dollar started the trading week with declineThe US currency showed a downward trend against the Japanese yen, holding near the local low of November 15, at 138.50.The dollar has not lost its intention to recover losses since the end of the previous Friday, after the release of the final minutes of the US Federal Reserve System meeting, which indicated the agreement to reduce the "hawkish" intensity regarding the interest rate strengthening in the future. For investors, it gave hope for a 0.50% correction in the next December meeting of the agency. However, financial authorities noted that such a decision does not signal the end of the fight against inflation, because the latter is still being held at record levels.Resistance levels: 139.58, 140.79, 141.50 and 142.54.Support levels: 138.50, 137.50, 136.50, 135.57.AUDUSD: Australia's economy is decliningA downward correction in the Australian currency allowed the AUD/USD pair to reach the 0.6685 level."Bears" gained the dominant advantage after the release of weak macroeconomic data. According to the ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics), retail turnover for October was down 0.2% after strengthening 0.6%, the first time since December's 4.1% slump last year that the value has corrected downwards, the current swing was due to the weakening of all major industries except perhaps the grocery retail sector. Department stores were the key contributors to the negative movement, down 2.4%, followed by clothing retailing with -2.0% and restaurant and café chains also down -0.4% for the first time since January. The head of statistics of the retail segment of the ABS noted that the current situation is caused by an increase in the percentage indicator and will have a long-term impact on the market.Resistance levels: 0.6765, 0.6970.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6410.Read more: AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotesGold pricesThe price of the precious metal is consolidating at 1750.00, waiting for another positive signal, ending the moderate strengthening the day before, where the correction in gold was due to the weakness of the US dollar because of the release of November minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting.This week is important for further price movement of the asset, first of all, the release of the euro area consumer price statistics, as well as the data on the US employment market in November, which will be announced by the end of the week. Preliminary market assessments imply the reduction of the inflation rate to 10.4% from 10.6%, while the core CPI value will remain at the same level of 5.0%. The labor market statistics from the US are not expected to be sensational as forecasts expect new job postings excluding the agribusiness sector for November at 208,0K previously showing an October increase of 261,0K and the number of unemployed to display zero correction and remain at 3.7%.Resistance levels: 1765.30, 1786.28, 1800.00, 1816.62.Support levels: 1734.91, 1720.00, 1700.00, 1688.58.Oil signalsThe current trading week started with the active decrease in the Brent oil, revealing the potential of the "bears", which had gained the advantage since the end of the previous week, getting ready to test the 81.00 level.A decline in U.S. crude reserves provides little support for the "black gold. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported a week earlier that strategic reserves were down by 3.691 million barrels, having previously declined by another 5.4 million barrels. Meanwhile, OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) approved an extended license for 6 months for the largest national energy enterprise, which will allow the supply of oil and petroleum products from Venezuela, partially offsetting the shortfall in the Russian oil market and stabilizing the fall in market prices. However, the document still prohibits the payment of any tax duty or royalty to the Venezuelan government, besides receiving any dividend from PDVSA, which is a Venezuelan state oil company or other legal entity is still prohibited.Resistance levels: 82.27, 83.89, 86.00, 87.00.Support levels: 81.00, 80.00, 78.28, 77.00.
Nov 28, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 22, for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD & Gold
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 22, for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD & Gold AUD/USD: The Australian currency is testing 0.6600The AUD/USD posted a weak strengthening in an attempt to recover losses incurred from an earlier correction, where the AUD/USD updated to a local low on Nov. 11. The asset is trading at 0.6620, supported by a technical factor.Investors took wait-and-see attitude, wishing to evaluate the final minutes of U.S. Federal Reserve officials meeting, announced for Wednesday. The market expects the financial authorities to lower the rate of interest rate hike, but statements of the Board members will be no less important. During the afternoon session, investors expect statements from the chairman of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), where they will be able to adjust forecasts regarding the prospects of tightening monetary parameters in the future. Statistics with economic fundamentals is announced for Wednesday of this week. Among other things, economists want to assess business activity from the Commonwealth Bank and S&P Global in November. The current expectations are for the service sector to drop to 49.1 points from 49.3 points and for manufacturing to drop to 52.4 points from 52.7 points.Resistance levels are 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6750 and 0.6800.Support levels: 0.6583, 0.6520, 0.6450, 0.6400.USD/CHF: Investors await the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meetingThe American currency is trading unsteady lower near the local high reached earlier on November 11. Traders refrained from excessive activity on the markets wishing to get acquainted with the outcome protocols of the U.S. regulator; besides the block of macroeconomic indicators on durable goods orders in October and PMI in November is of interest to them. Please be reminded that experts place their bets on slowdown in monetary policy tightening by the US financial authorities. According to insiders, during the December summit the Fed may soften the hawkish rhetoric and the interest rate will be raised only by 0.50% against the usual 0.75%. However, the upper bound on the target correction may also be revised upward because consumer price pressures are above the 2.0% target.Resistance levels: 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9700, 0.9762.Support levels: 0.9550, 0.9478, 0.9400, 0.9350.Read more: USD/CHF: forex signals, online trading forecasts for today, characteristics & featuresUSD/CAD: The "bulls" lost the advantage at 1.3475The upward movement of the trading instrument to 1.3475 is due to the weakness of the Canadian currency because of the "black gold" WTI quotations slump, which decreased from 94.00 to 75.80. In the course of two weeks the asset losses reached 19.4%.The energy carrier correction the day before was 5% amid The Wall Street Journal report about the OPEC's intention to increase production by 500.0 thousand barrels a day to compensate for a possible decline of raw materials in Europe, but the information was denied by participants of the organization, after which the "black gold" resumed its positions at the opening session level earlier this week, and trading instrument USD/CAD retreated from its peak at 1.3475, preparing to develop a downward trend.The long-term prospect of the price movement remains for the "bears" in the market. The day before the investors had no success in testing the resistance levels of 1.3530-1.3475. It is likely that further decline will help the asset to update the minimum at the levels of 1.3250-1.3200, and after the retreat from the threshold of 1.3200, the negative dynamics will strengthen and the testing of the value 1.2970 will follow.Resistance levels: 1.3475, 1.3530.Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3200.Gold priceThe price of the precious metal is correcting in a downtrend, testing the level of 1744.00.The upward trend of the asset ended, after which the "bears" regained the asset advantage due to the alarming news background from China, which has already confirmed the death of its citizens, who were infected with the Covid-19 infection. Authorities have now begun closing industrial centers, raising fears of a complete lockdown in the provinces, which may increase pressure on the gold position.China held the leading position among consumers and miners of the asset, which is only confirmed by updated data from processing centers in Switzerland. For October, the country exported 159.57 tons of bank metal, the bulk of which was shipped to China, accounting for a share of 43.7 tons. This level is slightly lower than the 44.02 for September, reflecting lower demand due to increased quarantine measures in some provinces of the Celestial Empire. Turkey, according to the statistics, holds second place, as gold shipments to Ankara for October totaled 31.4 tons, behind September imports of 32.2 tons, confirming a trend of locally lower metal consumption.Support levels: 1725.0, 1665.0.Resistance levels: 1780.0, 1850.0.
Nov 22, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 21, for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY & EUR/USD
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 21, for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY & EUR/USD NZD/USD: the pair is testing local highsThe currency of New Zealand shows a moderate decline, being at 0.6120, with the prospect of further decline.A block of macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand is a moderate support for the currency pair NZD/USD. According to the figures, credit card spending for October increased by 24.8%, previously showing a strengthening of 34.1% in September, while analysts were expecting 5.3%. By the end of today's trading investors expect the release of statistics on the balance of imports and exports for October. Current forecasts call for the national deficit level to strengthen to -$12.52 billion from last year's -$11.95 billion. The mid-week release of data from the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) officials meeting is announced. Economists expect the regulator to continue the pace of monetary policy tightening and raise the interest rate by 0.75%, bringing the target to 4.25%.Resistance levels: 0.6155, 0.6200, 0.6250 and 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6050, 0.6000, 0.5941.USD/CAD: bulls are developing an advantage over the US dollarIn the Asia-Pacific trading session the instrument USD/CAD keeps the "bullish" dynamic obtained a week earlier after the quotes' update of the low of September 15, now testing the level of 1.3400.The head of the Central Bank of Canada noted that, according to the forecasts of the board, the national economy will reach about zero growth dynamics by mid-2023, which only gives more confidence to the "hawks" to continue to increase interest rates, despite the pressure on a number of households, which will only increase against the rising cost of living and increased borrowing costs. According to the governor, a premature unwinding of the adjustment program would negate any earlier efforts to fight inflation, allowing the latter to resume growth, and the Bank of Canada would be forced to approve more drastic measures, putting unprecedented pressure on business in the short term.Resistance levels: 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3356, 1.3300, 1.3226, 1.3150.USD/JPY: The next level for the pair is 140.45The trading instrument USD/JPY is displaying a multidirectional trend and has the prospect of breaking through the level of 140.45. Investors' hopes for further monetary tightening on the part of the national regulator act as a moderate support for the USD.Meanwhile, macroeconomic indicators from the USA are keeping neutral. Thus, by the end of the previous week investors appreciated the statistics on residential real estate sales on secondary market, which showed a 5,9% decline in October, having earlier decreased by 1,5% against experts' expectations of -0,1%. Absolute sales fell to 4.43 million from 4.71 million, against market expectations of 4.38 million.Macroeconomic indicators from Japan turned out to be more optimistic. For example, consumer prices for October rose to 3.7% from 3.0% last month, falling short of analysts' expectations of 2.7%. Excluding food commodities and energy segment, the acceleration of inflation was 2.5% against the previous 1.8%, beating experts' forecast of 1.9%. Japan's head of monetary authorities is confident that the core inflation rate may lose any chance of strengthening in 2023, returning to a stable 2.0% level despite uncertainties in the global and national economy.Resistance levels: 140.79, 141.50, 142.54, 143.51.Support levels: 139.90, 138.50, 137.50, 136.50.Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewEUR/USD: The bulls are set to resume their advantage in the pairThe currency pair EUR/USD is slightly correcting testing the level of 1.0270, thus getting back from the active quotes' growth in the first half of the current month.The rhetoric of the national regulators on toughening of the monetary policy should be taken into account for a long-term forecast of the instrument movement. The EU currency has a chance to get stronger against the "American", since the US FRS is likely to decrease the growth rate of the key index amid its approaching the optimal threshold of 4.75%-5.00%, which will make the Euro more attractive for investors. The ECB (European Central Bank) is not yet close to its inflation target, which gives the agency an opportunity to increase the key figure more aggressively at a rapid pace.Resistance levels: 1.0460, 1.0780.Support levels: 1.0090, 0.9740.
Nov 21, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 17, for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD & Brent oil
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 17, for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD & Brent oil EUR/USD: US dollar is under pressureThe EUR/USD has been in an uptrend for two weeks in a row, hitting 1.0400. However the positive dynamics is supported not so much by the strengthening of the European currency as by the correction momentum of the American currency due to the October publication of the US CPI, which showed a significant reduction of its potential.The annual CPI reading was down to 7.7% from 8.2% previously, while producer prices were down to 8.0% from 8.4% previously. The publications reinforced hopes for a correction in the pace of further monetary policy tightening from the US Federal Reserve and fueled a potential resurgence of investor activity in the segment of risky assets. FOMC officials are attempting to avoid an overly optimistic wave for the market, noting that weaker inflation in October does not yet point to a victory over inflation, noting that the key rate cap has a chance of correcting, contrary to the current set plans. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to decline and at the time of writing.Resistance levels: 1.0498, 1.0620.Support levels: 1.0376, 1.0253, 1.0131.USD/JPY: Japanese regulator is set to stabilize inflationThe yen made a successful attempt to recover value on the back of the weakening US currency, which was complemented by currency interventions on the initiative of the Central Bank of Japan, allowing the trading instrument to test 139.62.In his speech early last week, central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated the monetary authorities' commitment to "dovish" monetary policy to support economic activity and achieve stability and sustainability in the fight against inflation, which has encouraged the government to raise wages that lagged three quarters in a row. The government will hold consultations with labor and business representatives in the spring and should reach an agreement on a 3.0% wage increase for employees, rather than the 2.0% increase that was previously planned. According to the plans of the members of the central bank's board, this option will be possible due to the reduction of the national inflation rate to the target of 1.5% at the background of the correction impulse in the cost of raw materials in the world.Support levels: 137.65, 132.86.Resistance levels: 140.80 and 145.00.AUD/USD: trend can change to positive"The bulls keep trying to break over the psychological threshold of 0.6725, wishing to take full advantage of the moment of the weak American currency.Australia's regulator at the end of its extreme monetary parameters meeting confirmed its intention to continue to actively raise the key indicator, however it noted that the degree of correction is closely linked to the incoming macroeconomic indicators and preliminary estimates of employment and price pressures. Officials had projected that consumer prices would slow to an upper 3.0% as early as December, but the value was later revised upward to 2025. Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed an increase in payroll indexation, which shows the average worker's pay, excluding bonuses, to 1.0% in the quarterly display, the highest since 2012 to the previous period, and average wages reached 3.1% versus 2.6% in the past, but behind a 7.3% increase in inflation.Resistance levels: 0.6725, 0.6900, 0.6990.Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6290.Read more: AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotesOil market signalsThe benchmark Brent crude oil brand recorded positions below the level of 91.00.The price of "black gold" is again under the influence of "bears" on the data on decrease of weekly reserve in the USA. According to API (American Petroleum Institute), the value decreased by 5.833 million barrels against 5.618 million barrels increase a week earlier, while EIA (Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy) reported that the indicator correction was -5.400 million barrels from 3.925 million barrels earlier. The rate of decline of the strategic reserve in the U.S. updated the 1984 value of 392.1 million barrels, indicating a steady demand for hydrocarbons, which is only confirmed by the report of Petro-Logistics, which is a service to track the movement of oil tankers. As it follows from the statistics, there has been a decline in crude supplies to the cartel countries since the beginning of this month. The service analysts expect the negative indicators to increase by the end of November and the correction dynamics for exports to 1.0 million barrels per day, which meets the OPEC+ targets of reducing production capacity by 2.0 million bpd, set a week earlier in Vienna.Support levels: 89.20, 82.87.Resistance levels: 94.00, 98.87.
Nov 17, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 16, for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Crude oil & Gold
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 16, for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Crude oil & Gold EUR/USD: Euro has retreated from its local peakThe single currency of the Eurozone is moving in different directions against the U.S. dollar, testing the level of 1.0350. Earlier EUR/USD demonstrated sharp appreciation, having successfully updated the local peak since July 1, however the pair failed to consolidate its positions.The reports on the missile strike on the territory of Poland allowed the American currency to strengthen considerably during the evening trading. At the moment there is no complete information about the incident, but the country's government has already announced increased combat readiness of military units and special services employees, and representatives of NATO and G7 countries jointly declared their full support to conduct an exhaustive investigation. Fears are growing among investors that the incident will lead to a new round of tension in the Russia-Ukraine war.Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0500, 1.0550.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253, 1.0200.GBP/USD: Inflation data release expectedThe GBP/USD currency pair is showing an uptrend, testing 1.1858 due to support from the macroeconomic bloc.As it follows from the September report, the British unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.6%, which resulted in the layoffs of 52.0 thousand people, beating expectations of only 25.0 thousand, but the dynamics of average pay without bonuses rose by 5.7%, outperforming last month's reading of 5.5%, completely offsetting the number of layoffs, and taking into account the bonuses - by 6.0%, beating analysts' forecast of 5.9%. Economists expect consumer prices for goods and services to update at 10.7% as expected, versus 10.1% last month.Resistance levels: 1.1990, 1.2250.Support levels: 1.1730, 1.1360.Gold SignalsGold prices are under a moderate decline, moving away from the high of August 15, which was updated earlier. The precious metal is trading at 1770.00 in anticipation of stimulus. Demand for the U.S. currency has risen noticeably amid extreme events in Poland, where two missiles fell, putting pressure on gold. The market fears that this event could cause an escalation of the war between official Moscow and Kiev.In addition, the asset is under pressure from "hawkish" rhetoric of U.S. regulatory officials. On Monday, Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, made a speech, arguing that the interest rate should be raised while maintaining the same rate of appreciation in order to reduce inflation to the target threshold of 2.0%. Earlier, investors noted signs of a gradual decline as manufacturing inflation strengthened 0.2% for October, better than the 0.5% increase expected for the month, and slowed to 8.0% from 8.4% for the year, ahead of economists' expectations of 8.3%.Resistance levels: 1786.28, 1800.00, 1816.62, 1828.22.Support levels: 1765.30, 1752.87, 1734.91, 1720.00.Read more: Are the minutes of the Federal Reserve meetings useful for investors?WTI Crude Oil SignalsAsian trading session shows a slight decline in WTI oil, which is now testing the level of 85.60.Earlier the asset showed a cautious strengthening, but was unable to consolidate its positions, as a sudden increase in demand for the U.S. dollar on reports about missile explosions in Poland. Among investors there are growing fears that such an incident may provoke an increase in the intensity of military action in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which will lead to a reduction in demand for hydrocarbons and impose additional bans on the supply of raw materials from Russia. Meanwhile, earlier it was confirmed that Ukraine had suspended oil pumping through the Druzhba pipeline due to power outages.Resistance levels: 87.00, 88.52, 90.00 and 92.58.Support levels: 85.00, 83.00, 81.00, 79.24.
Nov 16, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 15, for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD & USD/CHF
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 15, for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD & USD/CHF EUR/USD: EU GDP at risk of a slowdownThe trading instrument is testing the 1.0408 mark.The weakening U.S. currency gives an opportunity for the euro to get stronger due to the positive macroeconomic data and the downward trend in natural gas prices. So, the day before the statistics showed a 0.9% strengthening of industrial capacities in the European Union for September, exceeding expectations of growth of 0.3%, strengthening the annual figure by 4.9% against expectations of 2.8%. The situation may be subject to correction on the background of the euro zone GDP data announced today, the preliminary forecasts for Q3 expecting the figure to decline from 0.8% in the past to 0.2% in the present, while the annual figure may reduce the upward strengthening from 4.3% to 2.1%, which will give a negative signal to investors.Resistance levels: 1.0370, 1.0590.Support levels: 1.0258, 1.0078.GBP/USD: Pound is about to reverse the trend in the pairQuotes from the trading instrument GBP/USD are moving in different directions staying at the level of 1.1760.Experts are expecting the publication of the statistics on consumer prices which will be announced tomorrow and which will help predict further steps of the Bank of England regarding monetary parameters. At the moment the market allows the inflation rate to strengthen to 10.6% on an annualized basis and to 1.7% for a month. The government is expected to present its budget plan on November 17. Preliminary estimates suggest that the authorities will fix the idea of reducing government spending on the one hand and increasing the tax burden on the other hand in order to overcome the historical crisis of the population's wealth due to a decrease in the real income of citizens against the backdrop of rising costs of energy and consumer goods, which were driven by the military conflict between Russia and official Kiev.Resistance levels: 1.1800, 1.1853, 1.1933, 1.2000.Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1600, 1.1459, 1.1300.NZD/USD: local high testingThe trading instrument is trading at 0.6100, being around the local peak for September 13."Bulls", as before, have low activity on the U.S. dollar, because investors are waiting for hints on the further course of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The day before they published an optimistic bloc, which among other things showed positive changes with consumer inflation, which allowed the markets to adjust forecasts for the next stage of raising the key value by the next 0.75% after the working meeting of the agency in December. Currently, only 20% of experts are confident of such a result, while most analysts expect a rate hike of only 0.50%. However, some economists concede that the U.S. Federal Reserve officials might tone down the "hawkish" rhetoric by focusing on a smoother increase in the central rate because the CPI exceeds the target level by 4 times.Resistance levels: 0.6155, 0.6200, 0.6250, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6050, 0.6000, 0.5941.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsUSD/CHF: The US dollar continues to remain under pressureIn the Asian trading session, the currency pair USD/CHF is under the influence of contradictory factors, testing the level of 0.9440.According to the latest publication from FINMA (Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority), the regulator is examining the growing risks to the national financial system in the short term, as systemic monetary tightening, the availability of credit to the population and the vulnerability of cyberspace are a serious threat. In addition, the supervision examines large among market participants decentralized financial system applications related to blockchain infrastructure, providing open access, due to which customers have high risks of losing their capital due to market volatility, technical software failure, cyber attacks or fraudulent actions. However, analysts don't see that as a big threat because the audience is limited in scope.Resistance levels: 0.9478, 0.9550, 0.9600, 0.9650.Support levels: 0.9400, 0.9350, 0.9300, 0.9200.
Nov 15, 2022 Read
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