Forex analytical forecast for today, October 14, for USD/TRY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD & Crude oil

AUD/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, October 14, for USD/TRY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD & Crude oil

USD/TRY: Turkish leader puts pressure on the lira

Within the Asian trading session the currency pair USD/TRY shows an ambiguous trend of quotations' movement, testing the level of 18.5750.

The Turkish regulator continues to keep to its strategy of gradual rate correction as it is influenced by the Turkish president who said the financial authorities are neutral to the global practice of monetary policy tightening by the leading central banks and forecasts of experts or analytical companies. The government gives priority to attracting new flows of investment into the economy, increasing production capacity and increasing exports; fighting inflation and supporting the lira are also outlined as a priority. The day before the Central Bank of Turkey reduced the rate to 12% for the current year, while for September consumer price growth reached 83.45% year-on-year, but statistics TurkStat (Turkish Statistical Institute) claims a 1.0% year-on-year increase in August, showing a positive trend for the 26th month in a row since the global pandemic coronavirus infection was announced in mid-spring 2020. However, the pace of appreciation has been significantly slowed, with industrial capacity declining due to the global economic downturn.

  • Resistance levels: 18.6343, 18.7500, 18.8500, 19.0000.
  • Support levels: 18.5000, 18.3737, 18.3000, 18.1500.

AUD/USD: The Aussie retreated from a record low

The Australian currency traded moderately higher, moving away from the April 2020 support level reached earlier, where the AUD/USD instrument reached 0.6170. The currency pair was influenced by the release of statistics on consumer price growth, which strengthened the scenario that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates as part of tightening monetary parameters.

Investors will want to assess inflation data in China and its impact on the region's economy at the end of the week. According to the statistics, consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in September, adding 0.3% for the month, down 0.1% earlier, while analysts forecasted growth of 0.4%. Manufacturers cut the price index to 0.9% from 2.3% in the same period, contrary to market expectations of a 1.0% gain. The Chinese regulator is refraining from the global monetary policy trend algorithm, and the current publications only support the resolve of the Celestial Empire's banking authorities.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6362, 0.6450, 0.6522 and 0.6572.
  • Support levels: 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6140 and 0.6100.

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GBP/USD: U.S. inflation supports the pair's correction

Earlier the GBP/USD trading instrument gained 2.14% due to the released U.S. inflation statistics for September.

Meanwhile, lackluster British data had limited the pound's strengthening potential as the national GDP rose to 2.0% for the year including a correction in September that did not meet economists' expectations of a strengthening to 2.4%. Manufacturing and industrial production slipped 1.6% in August, beating estimates for a decline of 0.2% and an earlier -1.1% decline. The British regulator increased purchases of gilts to stimulate the bond market by triggering QE, while the buildup of monetary liquidity, according to the rules of the economy, is hitting the national currency.

  • Resistance levels: 1.1370, 1.1475, 1.1695.
  • Support levels: 1.0940, 1.0600.

WTI Crude Oil Signals

Asian trading session shows mixed dynamics for WTI quotations, which is now testing the level of 88.00 as part of further strengthening.

On Thursday the data of EIA (Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy) on the level of "black gold" strategic reserves and oil products had a negative impact on the asset. As of October 7, the value grew 9.88 million barrels within the week, which allowed the total to reach 439.1 million barrels, contrary to analysts' expectations of correction by 1.75 million barrels, while in the previous period the reserves decreased by 1.336 million barrels. Such positive dynamics of correction became possible at the background of the US strategic reserve of 7.7 million barrels on the world oil market.

  • Resistance levels: 90.00, 92.58, 94.00, 95.00.
  • Support levels: 87.00, 85.00, 83.00, 81.00.
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Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CAD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and Gold for Tuesday, June 6
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CAD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and Gold for Tuesday, June 6 USD/CAD: the pair is moving in the local corridor 1.3330–1.3250The Canadian currency is strengthening against the background of strong macroeconomic statistics, and the key support area of 1.3330–1.3250 is currently the goal of reducing the USD/CAD pair.Last week, data on Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) was published, which in quarterly terms amounted to 0.8%, exceeding analysts' forecast of 0.4% and the value for the previous period of 0.0%. In addition, core inflation dropped 4.3% to 4.1% per annum, which confirms the effectiveness of the monetary policy pursued by the Bank of Canada and gives investors confidence that the regulator will cope with the rise in consumer prices earlier than the US Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the agency will announce its decision on monetary policy, and economists predict that the interest rate will remain at 4.5%. Last month, the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, noted that officials do not intend to adjust the indicator, but plan to take a break to assess the impact on the economy of the measures taken the day before.Resistance levels: 1.3660, 1.3830.Support levels: 1.3330, 1.3250, 1.3050.USD/CHF: the policy of the Swiss financial authorities slowed down the May inflation dynamicsDuring the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair continues to decline, developing the downward momentum formed by the previous trading day, and is testing the 0.9042 level for a break down, trying to gain a foothold below the local lows of June 2.The US dollar is under pressure due to the general improvement in market sentiment, which leads to an increase in demand for risky currencies. Investors were optimistic about the news about solving the problem of limiting the US public debt: over the weekend, President Joe Biden signed a bill to abolish this restriction for the next two years, which provides for a partial reduction in government spending. Now investors are paying attention to macroeconomic statistics and discussing possible decisions of the US Federal Reserve Bank at the upcoming meeting next week. At the moment, more than 70.0% of analysts expect that the interest rate will be left unchanged, which may limit the further growth of the dollar.Resistance levels: 0.9073, 0.9100, 0.9118, 0.9146.Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8930.AUD/USD: RBA increased the cost of borrowing by 0.25%The AUD/USD pair is showing steady growth, continuing the strong upward momentum formed on June 1 last Thursday. The currency pair is testing the 0.6660 level, overcoming it and updating local highs since May 19. The main factor supporting the growth of the instrument is the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding the interest rate.The Australian regulator raised the rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, reaching the highest level since April 2012. In an official statement, officials noted that they made this decision in light of the continuing pressure on inflation, which, although it has reached its peak, is still at an unacceptably high level of 7.0%. That is why the RBA is seeking to tighten monetary policy in order to return inflation rates to the target range of 2.0-3.0% in the near future. At the same time, RBA officials noted that the growth of the Australian economy continues to slow down, and the situation in the labor market remains tense. They also did not rule out the possibility of further increases in the cost of borrowing, if the situation requires such measures and they will not cause significant damage to economic growth and the welfare of citizens. Recall that in April 2022, the official interest rate in Australia was set at a historic low of 0.10%, but in May the RBA began a series of rate hikes in the fight against inflation.Resistance levels: 0.6681, 0.6708, 0.6750, 0.6795.Support levels: 0.6635, 0.6590, 0.6563, 0.6530.Gold price analysisThe asset shows steady growth, developing a strong "bullish" momentum formed last Thursday, June 1. The instrument is testing the 0.6660 mark for an upward breakdown, updating local highs from May 19. The main factor in the growth of the instrument remains the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision on the interest rate.The Australian regulator raised the indicator by 25 basis points to 4.10% — the highest level since April 2012. In the accompanying statement, the officials noted that they made the decision against the background of the continuing pressure of inflation, which, although it has passed its peak, remains at an unacceptably high level of 7.0%. That is why the agency seeks to tighten monetary policy in order to return the indicators to the target of 2.0–3.0% in the near future. At the same time, the RBA noted that the growth of the Australian economy continues to slow down, and the situation in the labor market remains tense. Officials also do not rule out a further increase in the cost of borrowing, if the situation demands it and there will be no significant damage to economic growth and the welfare of citizens. Recall that in April 2022, the official interest rate in Australia was at a record low of 0.10%, but in May the RBA made a series of adjustments to the value to combat inflation.Resistance levels: 1960.00, 1971.39, 1983.20, 2000.00.Support levels: 1950.00, 1936.40, 1920.00, 1900.00.
Jun 06, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD for Monday, June 5
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD for Monday, June 5 EUR/USD: experts expect decline in business sentiment in the EUThe pair EUR/USD showed a decline, reaching the level of 1.0697, and a negative trend compared to its main competitors, including the U.S. dollar. This trend could intensify after the publication of macroeconomic data.Today, investors will pay attention to the Italian Service Business Activity Index, which is expected to decline from 57.6 to 56.5 points, while in France the index may drop from 54.6 to 52.8 points. While Germany is expected to increase from 56.0 to 57.8 points, it is not enough to have a significant impact on the composite index of service sector business activity across the EU and it may continue to decline from 56.2 to 55.9 points.Resistance levels: 1.0759, 1.0920.Support levels: 1.0628, 1.0400.USD/CAD: USD is regaining lost groundThe pair USD/CAD during the Asian session is moderately rising after the active decline last week and is testing the level of 1.3440 in an attempt to break up, retreating from the local lows set on May 16.Technical factors are supporting the upward dynamic, while the main impulses for the U.S. currency growth are gradually weakening. The U.S. labor market report released on Friday pointed to a continued high level of tightness: the unemployment rate rose from 3.4% to 3.7%, while the forecasted level was 3.5%. The number of new jobs created outside the agriculture sector increased by 339,000 in May, up from 294,000 last month, although analysts had expected 180,000. Average hourly earnings growth slowed from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 4.4% to 4.3% on an annual basis. These statistics put additional pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to further tighten monetary policy. Nevertheless, experts suppose with the probability of about 66% that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the next meeting, which is scheduled for June 13-14.Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250.NZD/USD: pair pulled back from the peak of MayThe NZD/USD pair showed mixed trading dynamics, holding near the level of 0.6060. It deviated from the local highs set on May 25 as a result of the reaction to the publication of the May report on the U.S. labor market, which caused mixed feelings among traders.Let's remind that this data showed the increase in the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector by 339.0 thousand after the previous growth of 294.0 thousand, while analysts expected the slowdown to 190.0 thousand. At the same time the unemployment rate went up from 3.4% to 3.7% while the forecast was 3.5%. In such a situation, it is unclear what steps the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will take at the upcoming meeting scheduled for June 13-14. Earlier most experts were inclined to consider a 25-basis-point interest rate hike, but rising unemployment could force the regulator to suspend monetary policy tightening. Right now there is about a 66.0% chance that the Fed will leave rates at current levels.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6150, 0.6200 and 0.6250.Support levels: 0.6043, 0.5984, 0.5938 and 0.5900.GBP/USD: pound is affected by the contradictory sentimentGBP/USD is in a consolidation phase near the level of 1.2430, but there is an ongoing negative sentiment which formed on June 2 when the pound declined after its local highs set on May 16.According to a Reuters poll of British economists, most of them predict a 3.0% decline in average home prices in the country this year, while previously a 2.4% decline was expected. This is due to the ongoing cost of living crisis and the expected rise in interest rates, which will have a negative impact on consumers and the entire British economy. The slow decline in inflation is likely to stimulate an interest rate hike from 4.50% to 5.00% at the Bank of England meeting scheduled for June.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2390, 1.2350, 1.2307, 1.2236.
Jun 05, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/USD and USD/CAD for Friday, June 2
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Forex analytical forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/USD and USD/CAD for Friday, June 2 AUD/USD: developing a bullish momentumAUD/USD currency pair continues to grow actively, forming a strong upward momentum, which began yesterday. The instrument is currently testing the level of 0.6615, breaking through upwards, making new local highs since May 23. Such growth is due to the vulnerability of the U.S. currency, which is declining at the end of the current week.The weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia has almost no significant impact on the active growth of the instrument today. The index of trade conditions declined by 1.5% in the first quarter after the previous increase by 1.8%, which is fully in line with experts' forecasts. Mortgage loan originations fell 3.8% in April after rising 5.5% the previous month, while analysts had expected a 3.0% decline. Investment borrowing for construction also declined 0.9% after a previous increase of 3.7%. Commerce Secretary Don Farrell said he will continue to consult on a comprehensive trade agreement with the European Union, negotiations on which began back in 2018. This agreement aims to establish a fair partnership for local producers and exporters. The official praised the benefits of access for Australian products to the European market, as it promotes national economic growth, investment, job creation and higher wages.Resistance levels: 0.6635, 0.6670, 0.6700, 0.6750.Support levels: 0.6590, 0.6563, 0.6530, 0.6489.USD/CHF: yesterday's publications have not changed the dynamics of the instrumentDuring the Asian session, the pair USD/CHF continues to decline, following the downward impulse, which was formed earlier, and is testing the level of 0.9040.Investors revise their forecasts on the future actions of the US Federal Reserve and assume that the interest rate will not reach the 5.0% level before the end of the year. In their speeches at the two-day meeting on June 13-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (FRB) President Patrick Harker and Philip Jefferson, FRB board member, spoke in favor of not tightening monetary policy. In addition, the U.S. Senate passed by a majority a bill that eliminates the national debt limit until 2025 and provides for cuts in government spending. The document must now be signed by President Joe Biden.Macroeconomic statistics released Thursday had little effect on the trade instrument, with Swiss exports falling from 27.031 million francs in March to 19.902 million francs in April and imports falling from 22.505 million francs to 17.302 million francs. This led to a decrease in the trade surplus from 4.526 million francs to 2.601 million francs, below analysts' average forecast of 3.822 million francs.Resistance levels: 0.9073, 0.9100, 0.9150 and 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8930.EUR/USD: the single currency shows a correctionThe currency pair EUR/USD showed insignificant growth, developing the corrective movement, which was formed the day before. Currently, the instrument is consolidating at the level of 1.0770, with the possibility of a break-up, updating the local highs since May 24. Activity in the market remains relatively low, as traders are waiting for the May report on the US labor market, which will affect the decision of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) on the interest rate. At the moment the probability of the monetary policy tightening at the regulator's meeting on June 14 is 24.0%, while at the beginning of the week it exceeded 40.0%.Data from the U.S. also put additional pressure on the U.S. currency. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in May decreased from 47.1 points to 46.9 points, which was lower than the expected 47.0 points, and the index of new orders declined from 45.7 points to 42.6 points, which was significantly lower than the forecasted 44.9 points.Resistance levels: 1.0768, 1.0800, 1.0850, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0725, 1.0682, 1.0640, 1.0600.USD/CAD: investors note the stable Canadian economyDuring the trading session in Asia, the pair USD/CAD shows a correction at 1.3416. The Canadian currency strongly strengthened the previous day, climbing more than 110.0 points against the U.S. dollar, influenced by two key factors.Firstly, the Canadian economy report had a positive impact: gross domestic product (GDP) remained unchanged at 0.0% in March, leading to a quarterly increase of 0.8% compared to the expected 0.4%. The annual GDP figure thus rose to 2.21% from the previous value of 2.07%, virtually eliminating the risks of a recession in the economy.Resistance levels: 1.3490 and 1.3630.Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3260.
Jun 02, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for USD/JPY, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and Crude Oil on June 1
GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for USD/JPY, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and Crude Oil on June 1 USD/JPY: Japan's financial authorities continue to test the digital currencyThe trading instrument USD/JPY is moderately declining, reinforcing the momentum of the "bears" since the beginning of the week. The asset is at 139.40, continuing to decline, while markets await the publication of US jobs market data by the end of the week.Meanwhile, the Japanese regulator reiterated its intention to continue testing the digital yen on the background of a positive test result in the second phase of the pilot project, which began last spring to this spring and showed a detailed analysis on the technology, allowing the use of maximum limits on the operation of the token. At the same time, the regulator's experts were conducting research on the timeframe for replacing traditional banking services with a transition to a new digital asset. As a reminder, starting June 1, Japan will implement a new set of rules to monitor the country's digital payments and transfers in order to track and detect criminal profits. So, from today, any financial institution that receives a cryptocurrency transaction in excess of $3,000 for processing will need to report details on the exchange company's client or the founder of the recipient.Resistance levels: 139.67, 140.21, 140.91, 141.50.Support levels: 138.90, 138.00, 137.50, 136.50.NZD/USD: the New Zealand currency is approaching the low of NovemberThe NZD/USD currency instrument is trading with moderate losses, reaching the area of 0.6000 for further declines, moving towards the local low of November 10. The instrument is under pressure from the published macroeconomic statistics of the PRC and New Zealand.Earlier published block of macroeconomic data reflected a downward correction in China's manufacturing sector business sentiment by the National Bureau of Statistics for May to 48.8 points from 49.2 points, with estimates of growth to 49.4 points, while the service sector declined to 54.5 points from the previous 56.4 points, beating the 50.7 point forecast. Business optimism from the RBNZ for May strengthened to -31.1 points from the previous -43.8 points, beating estimates of -43.4 points. A week earlier the financial authorities raised the cost of borrowing to the target level of 5.5%, after which they allowed the index to decline soon on the background of fixing stable economic indicators, and weakening inflation, which, in turn, continues to hold negative indicators. Minor support for the instrument was provided by the Chinese statistics. Thus, the Caixin business activity of the manufacturing sector for May increased to 50.9 points from 49.5 points, beating the neutral forecasts of experts, and the release of the May statistics on the labor market in the US is scheduled for Friday, the expectation of which keeps the attention of economists. The markets forecast a weaker dynamics of new vacancies in the agricultural sector down to 190.0 thousand from 253.0 thousand. Meanwhile, investors allow to see a slight change in the number of unemployed to 3.5% from 3.4%, which will be the first correction of the indicator in a long time.Resistance levels: 0.6043, 0.6100, 0.6150 and 0.6200.Support levels: 0.5984, 0.5938, 0.5900, 0.5850.GBP/USD: US mortgage rates continue to riseDuring the morning session the GBP/USD trading instrument shows mixed sentiment, testing the 1.2450 area and the local high of May 24. Pound intends to recoup the losses of the end of the previous week, but the upward dynamics is hindered by the strong position of the US dollar.So, the American currency again took the target to overcome the level of 104.000 on the USD Index. The increase in the cost of the threshold of the 30-year mortgage program to 6.91% from 6.69% triggered the decrease in the number of applications for the purchase of houses on the mortgage program of the index from 158.3 points to 154.4 points, which caused the pressure on the mortgage market index to 197.4 points from 205.0 points.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2680.Support levels: 1.2320, 1.2100.Crude Oil market overviewAfter the asset declined two sessions in a row and renewed the local low of May 4, the price of WTI oil shows a correction at 68.57 in Thursday's trading, waiting for a new impetus to move.Wednesday's report showed an additional negative trend for oil. Thus, according to the American Petroleum Institute weekly oil reserves as of May 26, the value increased by 5,202 million barrels against the previous decrease of 6,790 million barrels. Today, on June 1, the market participants expect the previously announced statistics release from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), according to which analysts forecast a decrease of 1.220 million barrels, which will continue the previous decline of 12.456 million barrels last week.Resistance levels: 69.00, 70.00, 71.00, 72.50.Support levels: 68.04, 67.00, 65.74, 64.00.
Jun 01, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/TRY and Gold for Wednesday, May 31
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/TRY and Gold for Wednesday, May 31 EUR/USD: key sectors of the European economy are downPublished macroeconomic statistics, which reflected the downward trend development in the main economic indicators of the Eurozone, caused the EUR/USD pair to correct around 1.0696.For instance, the consumer prices in Spain fell by 0.1% in May from the previous 0.6% growth, which had an impact on the annual figure, reducing it to 3.2%, or the minimum for August 2021. The cost of manufactured goods kept the negative trend to -4.8% from April's -1.5%. Weakening values of the central economies in the region lowered the European Alliance Business Activity Index from 0.51 points to 0.19 points. Taking into account the released inflation data of Germany and France, the current euro dynamics will continue in the medium term.Resistance levels: 1.0760, 1.0950.Support levels: 1.0610, 1.0400.USD/CAD: the pair is going to test a new local maximumUSD/CAD is moving in active growth, being under the influence of the upward momentum formed earlier, when the pair updated the local low of May 24. The U.S. dollar strengthened due to technical reasons and the announced consideration of the bill to increase the national debt ceiling by the congressmen.The agreement reached the day before by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy concluded last weekend, after which the Congress has only one week to approve the bill, without which the financial authorities will lose the ability to make payments on government bills since June 5. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic backdrop also drew investors' attention with the Dallas Fed's May manufacturing activity falling to -29.1 points from a previous estimate of -23.4 points at -19.6 points. A number of Fed officials are expected to speak on Wednesday, May 31. In turn, economists expect publication of the Chicago Business Sentiment Index in May and the monthly economic survey from the US Federal Reserve, the so-called "Exchange Book".Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3450.USD/TRY: Turkish currency is making new record lowsIn morning trading, USD/TRY showed strong bullish momentum and made a new record high at 20.7000.On the threshold of the next election in Turkey, the conditions for the lira to go down were formed, amid the markets uncertainty about the predictability of the voting results. The announcement of the final election results at the beginning of the week, according to which the incumbent President Recep Erdogan won a clear victory, triggered another downward trend in the national currency, as economists expect the authorities to put pressure on the Turkish Central Bank in the future. Thus, the vector of "doves" in the issue of monetary parameters, most likely, will remain the same, which will serve to improve the investment climate of the Republic, strengthening of the labor market and supply of goods to foreign markets that can deprive the consumer prices of the prospects for further growth, which now hold the level of 43.68%, at the cost of borrowing at 8.5%. Meanwhile, experts raise fears that the prices of consumer goods and services in the short term may resume growing again due to the involvement of public resources in the election campaign, for example, citizens were given the opportunity to consume natural gas for free for a month. The sharp decline in the Turkish lira forces market participants to transfer their capital to savings accounts, where the lira is quoted against the U.S. dollar and the state compensates for the difference in exchange rates. Such measures have been in effect in Turkey since 2021.Resistance levels: 20.7000, 20.8680, 21.0000, 21.1500.Support levels: 20.4263, 20.2242, 20.0036, 19.8500.Gold pricesThe precious metal is developing a correction at the key multi-year level of 2000.0.Physical gold demand level is steadily increasing, especially after the cancellation of Covid-19 epidemiological measures in the regions. The Central Bank of the People's Republic of China, for example, has been building up its own gold reserve six months in a row and, according to official statistics coming into publication after a three-year pause, the regulator added more than 100.0 tons of metal to reserves during the first quarter, raising the reserve target to 2076.0 tons.Resistance levels: 1980.0, 2030.0.Support levels: 1940.0, 1890.0.
May 31, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, May 30
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, May 30 EUR/USD: euro is decliningThe EUR/USD is displaying multidirectional sentiment in the pair, testing the 1.0700 level and the local low of March 20. Investors are keeping low trading activity after the holiday the day before.Meanwhile the economists are estimating the recession in the German economy negatively, which may affect the stability of the European Union participants. Recall that the day before the publication the statistics on the national gross domestic product reflected the decrease to -0.2% from 0.3% against the market expectations of 0.2%, while the quarterly value remained negative to -0.3% from -0.4% against analysts' forecasts of -0.1%. Bloomberg experts see the reason for the low pace in failed energy policy and a slow transition to new technology.Resistance levels: 1.0725, 1.0758, 1.0800, 1.0850.Support levels: 1.0682, 1.0640, 1.0600, 1.0550.USD/CHF: US dollar is getting strongerIn the morning session the USD/CHF is making up for the losses incurred from the two-day correction and traded at 0.9060, waiting for new impetus to develop further dynamics.Market participants' optimism supported the instrument, as traders noted positively the agreement on the US sovereign debt. Thus, at the end of last weekend, President Joe Biden confirmed the information about the success of the negotiations, where the speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, acted as the second party. If Congress approves the bill by the end of the week, the United States will be able to avoid default and investors will shift their attention back to the Fed's strategy on monetary parameters.Today, May 30, the Swiss gross domestic product for Q1 and the index of leading indicators from the Swiss Economic Institute are scheduled to be published. Analysts expect the annual economy to correct to 0.6% from 0.8% but the quarterly economy to strengthen by 0.1%. The day before the dynamics were expected to be zero.Resistance levels: 0.9073, 0.9100, 0.9150, 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9030, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8930.AUD/USD: the Australian currency has resumed its declineTrading pair AUD/USD is dominated by the "bears", having lost the potential of upward dynamics of the last two sessions. The pair reached 0.6516 and continued to decline amid weak macroeconomic data from Australia.Thus, investors noted a sharp drop of 8.1% in the number of approved construction work orders for April, previously down 0.1% in March contrary to market expectations of a 2.0% growth, while the annual value has strengthened the negative trend to -24.1% from -17.3%, defying the average forecasts. Tomorrow the April revised Australian CPI data is scheduled for release and it is not expected to show significant correction to 6.1% according to the forecasts.Resistance levels: 0.6530, 0.6563, 0.6590, 0.6635.Support levels: 0.6489, 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6350.Oil market reviewAccording to the information from the trading floors, quotations of the North American light oil grade WTI are correcting in the downward dynamic at the mark 72.41.The day before the Secretary General of the cartel OPEC has held a conversation with reporters from the Iranian edition Shana, which was an opportunity to refute the desire of the organization to establish a fixed price for hydrocarbons, because exporters want to focus on the balance of supply and demand. Contrary to recent criticism of OPEC+ actions, the official spoke of the need to avoid populist rhetoric in the media, as the organization takes decisions on adjustments based solely on a fundamental analysis of market values and trends. In turn, the official expects the lifting of sanctions against official Tehran in the medium term, which will bring a significant amount of cheap raw materials to the world market and cap the resulting increased demand for oil and oil products.Resistance levels: 74.70, 80.60.Support levels: 70.30, 64.30.
May 30, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for NZD/USD, USD/JPY, gold and crude oil for Monday, May 29
USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for NZD/USD, USD/JPY, gold and crude oil for Monday, May 29 USD/JPY: dollar is testing local highsThe trading instrument USD/JPY is developing a moderate decline, having reached the area of 140.40 and the local highs of November 23. The day before it showed active strengthening, not being exposed to the resistance of the "Japanese".The upward dynamic became possible amid the market expectations for the further growth of interest rate by the Fed and the positive macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the earlier published data showed the increase in yields to 0,4% from 0,3%, while the expenditures went up to 0,8% from 0,1%, having exceeded the expectations of 0,4%. Demand for the nation's durable goods rose 1.1% in April, building on the previous 3.3% increase in March, contrary to experts' forecasts of a 1.0% decline.Meanwhile, a block of statistics at the end of last week strengthened economists' confidence that Japan's regulator is not considering the option of correcting the vector of monetary parameters in the short term. Thus, the Tokyo region consumer prices for May decreased to 3.2% from 3.5%, with the market estimates increasing to 3.9%, and when excluding the sectors of food commodities and energy increased to 3.9% from 3.8%, with the analysts' estimates of 4.3%.Resistance levels: 140.91, 141.50, 142.54, 143.50.Support levels: 139.67, 138.90, 138.00, 137.50.NZD/USD: the pair is kept in the local descending corridorThe currency pair NZD/USD developed a negative sentiment, reaching the area of 0.6056 with quite low investor activity amid a clear calendar of macroeconomic publications.According to the publication of the National Statistics Service of New Zealand, the local statistics for April on vacancy rates was released. Thus, the aggregate figure for all industrial sectors reflected an increase of 0.6% to the target of 2.37 million workers, and the top three sectors by sector were manufacturers of goods, up 0.7%, services, up 0.5%, and manufacturers, up 0.2%. Fast food, transportation and postal services, administrative services, health care, and manufacturing showed local leadership. Strong data signaled a positive trend in the national labor market.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6240.Support levels: 0.6000, 0.5840.Gold pricesThe safe haven asset is developing a moderate correction, sitting at the local low of March 22, updated last Friday, May 26, hitting 1945.00 and waiting for new stimulus for a further move.Investors remain focused on the issue of agreeing on the US debt ceiling. Earlier the leader of the United States of America and Congress reached a consensus that will avoid the declaration of economic default in the country. At the moment some formal agreements and minor amendments need to be made, which will eventually allow the congressmen to start coordinating the bill before June 1. Meanwhile, a number of representatives of the two parties in Congress spoke negatively about the existence of some clauses of the agreement. For instance, the leader of the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives expressed doubt that the upcoming vote would find enough votes among Democrats.Resistance levels: 1950.00, 1960.00, 1971.39, 1983.99.Support levels: 1936.40, 1920.00, 1900.00, 1878.84.Oil market reviewIn Asian trading, Brent crude is showing a mixed trend, holding at 77.50.Meanwhile, divergent rhetoric in the OPEC+ cartel is encouraging the pressure on the energy market. Thus, Saudi Arabia issued a warning to the market participants, reinforcing the trend of "bears" on the platforms to stick to balanced decisions before the summit of the organization, announced for June 4 in Vienna, where they will consider the future policy. Traders saw in such rhetoric signals of a possible correction, because since the beginning of the month the cartel has already agreed on a voluntary reduction of production capacity by all participants by 9.7 million barrels per day. For its part, the Russian government doubts that the current quotas will be revised, expecting that the demand for oil products will only increase due to the increased intensity of carriers, air flights and field work of the agricultural sector in the coming summer. Meanwhile, analysts are holding a neutral outlook ahead of the organization's meeting.Resistance levels: 78.46, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00.Support levels: 77.00, 75.63, 74.00, 73.00.
May 29, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for USD/CHF, USD/TRY, GBP/USD and gold for Wednesday, May 17
GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for USD/CHF, USD/TRY, GBP/USD and gold for Wednesday, May 17 USD/CHF: instrument has reached a local maximumCurrency pair USD/CHF is trading mixed dynamics, testing the level of 0.8960 and the local high of May 2, updated a week earlier.The day before the US dollar got a moderate support amid macroeconomic data releases, but all attempts to hold the updated limits failed. For example, retail sales for April rose 0.4% to a 0.7% decline in the past, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 0.7% consolidation, and excluding motor vehicles rose 0.4% to a 0.5% decline for March the day before. Industrial production strengthened 0.5%, breaking March's zero trend. Production capacity utilization rose to 79.7% in April from 79.4% as expected by experts.Resistance levels: 0.8960, 0.9000, 0.9030 and 0.9070.Support levels: 0.8930, 0.8900, 0.8858, 0.8819.USD/TRY: lira is actively losing groundThe USD/TRY trade instrument is actively rallying, having reached the area of 19.7400, and the rate of appreciation has been breaking the records of the recent correction.The Turkish currency is actively weakening due to the outcome of the first round voting in presidential and parliamentary elections. The incumbent president of the Republic of Turkey failed to overcome the threshold of 50.0% of supporters, in spite of a fairly confident breakaway from the representative of the opposition in power, as a result of which a new vote will be held on May 28. The current leader's government has been actively reforming the economy since 2017, in an attempt to overcome record consumer inflation and keep the Turkish lira afloat. The current president is ignoring the traditional approach of global regulators on monetary parameters by reducing the cost of borrowing, maintaining the hope that credit products will become more affordable and attractive to international investors in the country, causing the Central Bank of Turkey to come under pressure from the government on a regular basis. In turn, markets have expressed fears that the formed inflationary spiral could have very negative consequences for the financial sector in the country.Resistance levels: 19.7500, 19.8000, 19.8500, 19.9000.Support levels: 19.6530, 19.6000, 19.5500, 19.5000.GBP/USD: UK keeps recording a slowdown in the economyThe strengthened American currency gives impetus to the GBP/USD currency pair to correct at 1.2479.The day before the British pound made an attempt to rise, but on Tuesday the statistics on the national employment market negated the achievement of the asset. Thus, the number of unemployed rose from 3.8% to 3.9% in March amid an increase in initial applications for unemployment benefits from 26.5 thousand in February to 46.7 thousand, which set a new record for March 2021, where such a situation was possible due to epidemiological restrictions. This situation reduced labor productivity by 1.4 percent, after increasing by 0.4 percent. The average wage rate maintained its level of 5.8%, having a disincentive effect on new hires.Resistance levels: 1.2560 and 1.2680.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2200.Gold PricesThe precious metal is quoted near the key multi-year mark of 2000.0.According to the published report of the World Gold Council, analysts noted a slight sentiment in favor of lowering the key value in Q1. For example, first-quarter demand fell 13.0% year-over-year to 1,080.0 tonnes, while the jewelry industry lowered gold demand to 508.6 tonnes, or 2.0%. Investor demand corrected by -51.0% to 273.7 tonnes, while physical gold bars and coins gained 5.0% to 302.4 tonnes. Capital outflows from gold-backed ETFs decreased to 28.7 tonnes from 270.7 tonnes the year before.In turn, central banks are increasing their purchases of gold to bolster reserves, with the first quarter value renewing its highest peak over the same period in 2022 at 176.0% to 228.4 tonnes.Resistance levels: 2010.0, 2050.0.Support levels: 1975.0, 1920.0.
May 17, 2023 Read
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