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Forex analytical forecast for today, September 14, for EURGBP, AUDUSD, EURTRY & Silver

AUD/USD, currency, EUR/TRY, currency, EUR/GBP, currency, Silver, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, September 14, for EURGBP, AUDUSD, EURTRY & Silver

EUR/GBP: the asset is moving in the sideways trend

Within the Asian trading session, EUR/GBP is moderately declining, testing the level of 0.8670.

Earlier the euro tried to move to the stronger position, but investors were focused on the U.S. data examination, which caused European and UK currencies to decline against the U.S. dollar. According to the publication, consumer prices rose 0.1%, while economists forecasted a negative correction within a similar value, however the annual rate declined to 8.3% from 8.5%, while the expectations were for a decline to 8.1%. The consumer price index led analysts to lower their positive assessment of the effectiveness of the leading central bank's monetary strategy, but raised the odds of a 0.75% hike in the U.S. Federal Reserve's key indicator in September.

  • Resistance levels: 0.8692, 0.8720, 0.8750 and 0.8800.
  • Support levels: 0.8645, 0.8616, 0.8585, 0.8560.

AUD/USD: The Australian currency has resumed its decline

The AUD/USD traded slightly higher, holding onto a local low from Sept. 8, a low posted earlier when the AUD/USD suffered its biggest drop in months in reaction to U.S. consumer price data.

Market participants will want to see the August Australian jobs market report due out on September 15. Preliminary estimates assume a significant strengthening of the number of employed by 35.0 thousand, showing a decrease of 40.9 thousand in the last reporting period. However, experts also allow for a decline in the overall employment rate. Moreover, on Thursday the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) will give a forecast for the consumer price level in September, which correction might be up to 6.7% from 5.9%.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6853 and 0.6900.
  • Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6650, 0.6600, 0.6550.

Silver prices

The price of bank metal is moving in the downward dynamics, leaving the local high of August 17 amid the release of macroeconomic indicators in the United States.

Thus, according to the data, the consumer inflation added 0.1% in August, against the expected decline of a similar value. Moreover, without calculating the cost of foodstuffs and energy the value showed an increase to 0.6% from 0.3%, not justifying the preliminary forecast of zero fluctuation. The annual inflation figure showed a correction to 8.3% from 8.5%, which reflected only a partial success of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, greatly questioning the prospects for the "hawks" strategy of the regulator. As of today, over 80% of experts forecast that the U.S. regulator in the meeting announced for September 21 will review the interest rate by 0.75% increasing the target to 3-3.25% per annum.

  • Resistance levels: 19.50, 19.74, 20.00 and 20.48.
  • Support levels: 19.00, 18.68, 18.41, 18.00.

EUR/TRY: Quotes approaching all-time highs

EUR/TRY is preparing to move above the record resistance level of 18.6000.

Turkish lira is getting stronger amid Turkish leader Erdogan's statements that the government will allocate additional $50.0 billion to build new residential real estate and business centers. The initiative of the government provides for the extension of mortgage payments period to 20 years, which will allow monthly payments not to exceed the mark of 125.0 dollars, while the minimum wage is 300.0 dollars. When examining macroeconomic statistics, economists note that Turkish industrial production slipped from 8.8% to 2.4% in July, while the retail sales index shed 0.3%, lowering the yearly rate to 2.0%.

  • Resistance levels: 18.6000, 19.3000.
  • Support levels: 17.9232, 17.2417.
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF for Monday, April 22
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF for Monday, April 22 EUR/USD: correction before data on consumer confidence in the eurozoneIn the current trading session, the EUR/USD pair is showing cautious growth, continuing the "bullish" trend set at the end of last week. At the moment, the euro is trying to overcome the level of 1.0665, while the market is waiting for new catalysts of movement. The fundamental situation today is predictable: the main attention is focused on the speech of Christine Lagarde from the ECB and the monthly report of the Bundesbank. In addition, investors are expecting data on the April level of consumer confidence in the eurozone, with a slight increase in the index from -14.9 to -14.0 points.An analysis of March statistics on the German producer price index shows an increase of 0.2% month-on-month, reducing annual industrial inflation to -2.9% from -4.1%, which is higher than analysts expected the indicator to stabilize.Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0730, 1.0765, 1.0800.Support levels: 1.0660, 1.0630, 1.0600, 1.0561.USD/CAD: currency pair is losing ground from the upper limit of the ascending channel 1.3800–1.3650In the Asian session, the USD/CAD currency pair shows stable performance, being at the level of 1.3725, in anticipation of new economic data.According to the latest report from Statistics Canada, in February there was a decrease in investment in construction: the total volume decreased by 1.1%, to CAD 19.3 billion, including investments in residential complexes fell by 1.2%, to CAD 13.4 billion, and in commercial and industrial buildings — by 0.9%, to CAD 6.0 billion. In the coming hour (14:30 GMT+2), data on March prices for industrial goods are expected to be published, their growth is projected to be 0.8%, as well as an update of the index of the cost of new housing, the estimated increase of which will be 0.1%. The commodity price index is also expected to increase by 2.9%.Resistance levels: 1.3760, 1.3870.Support levels: 1.3690, 1.3560.NZD/USD: increased consumer spending in New ZealandThe NZD/USD pair shows a moderate correction, holding at 0.5912 against the background of stabilization of the US dollar, while the lack of strong support from local economic statistics significantly restrains the growth of the New Zealand currency.A report from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed that March credit card spending reached NZ$3.794 billion, up from February's level of NZ$3.697 billion, but still below the previous year's March figure of NZ$4.018 billion. Despite the growth of the last two months, the current figures still have not reached the levels of the end of the previous year, estimated at 4,200 billion New Zealand dollars.The US dollar, trading at 105.80 in USDX, remains the main factor influencing the dynamics of the pair. The recent report on the decline in sales in the secondary housing market in the United States to 4.19 million from 4.38 million, although lower than expected, supports some optimism, since the figures are better than last year's data (3.78 million). The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will largely depend on future data on the real estate sector, which may delay a possible rate cut if this sector weakens.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6040.Support levels: 0.5880, 0.5790.USD/CHF: Switzerland's March surplus reached 2.8 billion francsThe USD/CHF currency pair demonstrates stabilization of the 0.9122 level, despite positive macroeconomic data from Switzerland.Switzerland's March trade surplus expanded from 2.3 billion to 2.8 billion francs. Exports decreased by 0.6% to 21.1 billion francs, while imports decreased by 3.3% to 18.2 billion francs. In the export segment, there was a decrease in jewelry by 37.2% and watches by 1.5%. Among imported goods, jewelry and chemical and pharmaceutical products showed the largest drop, falling by 18.1% and 6.0%, respectively. These factors put pressure on the Swiss currency, supporting the trend towards strengthening the USD/CHF pair in the context of slowing international trade.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9250.Support levels: 0.9080, 0.8970.
Apr 22, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD for Thursday, April 18, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD for Thursday, April 18, 2024 EUR/USD: continued decline in the context of a long-term bearish trendAs part of a long-term downtrend, the EUR/USD pair experienced pressure, falling to the lower boundary of the channel near the 1.0600 mark, followed by a correction to the 1.0681 level. Amid expectations of changes in monetary policy, the market is tuning in to a possible rate cut by the European Central Bank as early as June, while the adaptation of the US Federal Reserve's policy is expected no earlier than September.Economic statistics support forecasts of an imminent correction: the March consumer price index of the eurozone showed a decrease to 2.4% per annum, the base index fell to 2.9%. In the US, by contrast, the consumer price index increased to 3.5%, while core inflation remained at 3.8%. Market expectations regarding the easing of monetary policy by Europe are supported by statements by ECB officials who are ready to cut rates in June, unless extraordinary events occur, such as increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which can cause an increase in energy prices.Resistance levels: 1.0742, 1.0864, 1.0925.Support levels: 1.0645, 1.0559, 1.0498.GBP/USD: annual inflation rate in the UK dropped to 3.2%In the Asian session, the GBP/USD currency pair shows moderate growth, which began the previous day, and is trying to overcome the level of 1.2470, reacting to the latest data from the British economy.In March, monthly consumer price growth in the UK remained at 0.6%, and the annual inflation rate fell from 3.4% to 3.2%, falling short of the expected 3.1%. Core inflation, which excludes the cost of food and energy, also increased by 0.6%, which led to an annual rate of 4.2%, slightly higher than the forecast of 4.1%. The retail price index decreased to 4.3%, which was worse than the expected 4.2%, indicating a slower than expected decrease in inflationary pressure, which limits the rise of the pound. The market's attention on Friday will be focused on retail sales figures, which, according to forecasts, should show an improvement of 0.3% after stagnation in February.Resistance levels: 1.2520, 1.2690.Support levels: 1.2430, 1.2270.NZD/USD: pair is gaining strength after losses at the start of the weekNZD/USD is showing moderate growth, continuing the positive trend that began after the pair rebounded from the lowest values since the beginning of November 2023. At the moment, the exchange rate is approaching the psychological level of 0.5920, accompanied by expectations of new economic signals.Investors will direct their attention to the upcoming statistics on the American labor market, in particular, data on primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits are expected: forecasts indicate a slight increase in the number of initial applications from 211,000 to 215,000. In addition, a publication from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector may show a decrease from 3.2 up to 1.5 points in April, which can affect the dynamics of the pair.On the other hand, recent inflation data in New Zealand caused pressure on the national currency: the consumer price index for the first quarter showed a slowdown from 4.7% to 4.0% per annum, which was below expectations, while the quarterly index showed an unexpected increase from 0.5% to 0.6%.Resistance levels: 0.5920, 0.5950, 0.5975, 0.6000.Support levels: 0.5885, 0.5858, 0.5830, 0.5800.AUD/USD: Australian currency is moving away from recent low valuesDuring recent trading, the AUD/USD pair is experiencing an uptrend, moving away from the lows reached on November 14, 2023, with quotes actively attacking the 0.6445 level. Investors are carefully studying the data of the March report on the Australian labor market, published on Thursday.The report showed a decrease in the number of employed by 6.6 thousand, which was a sharp restraint after the previous increase of 117.6 thousand, against the projected 7.2 thousand. At the same time, the number of full-time jobs increased by 27.9 thousand, while part-time employment fell by 34.5 thousand. The unemployment rate increased from 3.7% to 3.8%, which was below analysts' expectations of 3.9%, and labor force participation decreased from 66.7% to 66.6%.The US dollar also received support after recent statements by Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. Although he did not provide a specific time frame for the start of rate cuts, he stressed that it would take more time to stabilize inflation at 2.0%. This led to a revision by investors of forecasts regarding the time of the first interest rate cut this year, while the majority believes that monetary policy easing is possible in September, followed by a possible reduction no earlier than the end of 2024. Up to two rate adjustments of 25 basis points each are expected this year.Resistance levels: 0.6456, 0.6480, 0.6500, 0.6524.Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6388, 0.6356, 0.6300.
Apr 18, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY for Wednesday, April 17th
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY for Wednesday, April 17th EUR/USD: economic mood in the eurozone improved to 43.9 pointsThe EUR/USD currency pair is showing moderate strengthening, recovering from a strong bearish trend that began last week and led to an update of the minimum values since November 2 of the previous year. The pair has now tested the 1.0625 level, waiting for new catalysts to move.The euro is supported by the latest data from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW): the index of economic sentiment in the eurozone increased from 33.5 to 43.9 points in April, which significantly exceeded analysts' expectations of 37.2 points and was the highest result since the spring of 2022. This strengthens expectations of an improvement in the economic situation in the next six months. In addition, the region's trade balance showed a surplus of 23.6 billion euros, almost doubling compared to January, due to an increase in exports of cars and equipment, as well as due to a decrease in energy imports. Today, data on the German wholesale price index for March were also presented, which remained at the level of 0.2% monthly growth, which exceeded analysts' expectations for a decrease to -0.1%, and the annual figure was -3.0%.Resistance levels: 1.0630, 1.0660, 1.0700, 1.0730.Support levels: 1.0600, 1.0561, 1.0530, 1.0500.USD/JPY: stabilization at historically high levelsThe USD/JPY currency pair shows mixed trends, holding near the level of 154.60. Buyer activity remains significant, but new positions are being opened cautiously in anticipation of potential interventions from the Bank of Japan. The regulator expressed concern about the speculative weakening of the yen, which, despite the recent interest rate increase, did not lead to a strengthening of the currency due to bias towards a soft monetary policy. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki confirmed that the monetary authorities are ready for decisive measures to stabilize the yen.Support for the Japanese currency also came from trade data for March: exports increased by 7.3%, despite a slight slowdown compared to February, and imports decreased by 4.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of 366.5 billion yen. In the US, on the contrary, the March data on the construction sector turned out to be less satisfactory: building permits fell by 4.3%, and the start of new construction decreased by 14.7%, which further weakened the dollar against the yen.Resistance levels: 155.00, 155.50, 156.00, 156.50.Support levels: 154.50, 154.00, 153.50, 153.00.USD/CAD: US dollar continues to dominate the currency pairThe USD/CAD currency pair is experiencing a correction, stabilizing at 1.3820 amid the activity of the US dollar and ambiguous Canadian economic statistics.March inflation data in Canada showed a 0.6% monthly increase in consumer prices and an increase in the annual index from 2.8% to 2.9%. However, the base index excluding food and energy prices showed a 0.5% monthly change and a decrease from 2.1% to 2.0% per annum, which was in line with market expectations.On the other hand, the US dollar reached a high level of 106.10 on the USDX index, which was confirmed by retail sales data. Sales in the United States increased by 0.7% monthly in March, exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.4%, and accelerated significantly year-on-year from 2.11% to 4.02%. Underlying sales also showed an increase from 0.6% to 1.1%. In addition, industrial production increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis and recovered to the level of 0.00% per annum after a previous decrease of 0.30%, which adds dynamism to the US dollar in the market.Resistance levels: 1.3850, 1.3960.Support levels: 1.3780, 1.3610.GBP/USD: analysis for the quarterWe present an analysis of the investment prospects of the GBP/USD pair for the medium term.The UK continues to experience economic difficulties caused by persistently high inflation. The actions of the Bank of England to stabilize it have not yet brought the expected result, and the current fluctuations in the pound are due to falling electricity prices on the stock market. Nevertheless, given the recent rise in oil prices, it is possible that the value of the pound will resume rising. The interest rate set by the regulator at 5.25% is likely to be supported at the next meeting on May 9, according to experts' forecasts. The consumer price index in March showed a decrease to 3.2% from 3.4%, and the main index excluding the cost of food and fuel remained at 4.2%. The pound is also feeling pressure from the retail sector: the core retail sales index increased by only 0.2% in February after rising by 3.4% a month earlier and fell by 0.5% in annual terms after an increase of 0.5% in the previous month. At the same time, the volume of retail sales in February remained unchanged, which led to an annual decline of 0.4%, and the GDP indicator for the same period decreased from 0.3% to 0.1%.
Apr 17, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD for Tuesday, April 16
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD for Tuesday, April 16 EUR/USD: euro continues the bearish trend that began last weekDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair is testing the level of 1.0614, continuing the "bearish" trend that began in the middle of the previous week. Then the euro fell from a peak of 1.0885, not finding support in the latest macroeconomic data.In February, the indicator of industrial production in monthly terms was adjusted from -3.0% to 0.8%, and in annual terms from -6.6% to -6.4%. The March wholesale price index in Germany remained at the level of the previous month (+0.2%), maintaining an annual decline of -3.0%. Today at 11:00 GMT (+2), the report of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) on the current state of the German economy is expected to be published, the indicator is projected to improve from -80.5 to a higher level, and the index of economic sentiment may rise from 31.7 to 35.9 points. On Wednesday, key data on consumer inflation in the eurozone for March will come to the market, it is expected that they will confirm the previous level of 0.8% monthly growth and 2.4% annual growth. Representatives of the European Central Bank, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, are also scheduled to speak on this day.Resistance levels: 1.0656, 1.0790.Support levels: 1.0590, 1.0460.USD/CAD: reaching new peaks before the release of Canadian inflation dataThe USD/CAD currency pair is showing unstable growth, trying to overcome the 1.3800 level. Market activity on Tuesday morning remains limited in anticipation of new inflation data in Canada, which is due to be published at 14:30 GMT (+2). The monthly consumer price index for March is projected to increase from 0.3% to 0.7%, and the annual inflation rate will increase from 2.8%.The core inflation indicators from the Bank of Canada remain close to the target values, with the February core inflation rate at 2.1% per annum. The expected statistics on the number of new buildings in Canada started in the reporting month — an important indicator for the country's construction sector - also attracts attention. It is expected that the number of construction projects started will increase from 223.6 thousand to 227.0 thousand, which will potentially strengthen the Canadian dollar.The day promises to be full of speeches by key monetary policy figures, including Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and head of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem, who can comment on the current policy prospects of their institutions. Market expectations regarding the reduction of interest rates in the United States tend to the fact that the Fed will maintain current rates in June, with a possible easing only by September, with a forecast of only two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2024, instead of three, as previously assumed.Resistance levels: 1.3800, 1.3853, 1.3900, 1.3950.Support levels: 1.3750, 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3616.GBP/USD: pound stabilized at the low levels of November 2023The GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing a moderate decline, stabilizing around the level of 1.2430, which corresponds to the low values recorded on November 17, 2023.The British currency is currently under pressure from the latest data on the state of the UK labor market: the unemployment rate over the past three months has increased from 4.0% to 4.2%, the employment rate has decreased by 156.0 thousand, which turned out to be worse than the previous value of -89.0 thousand, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits in March increased from 4.1 thousand to 10.9 thousand, although it turned out to be lower than the expected 17.2 thousand. At the same time, the average salary, including bonuses, increased by 5.6% in February, exceeding forecasts of 5.5%.On Wednesday at 8:00 GMT (+2), inflation data for March is expected to be published in the UK: the annual consumer price index is projected to decrease from 3.4% to 3.1%, and the monthly increase by 0.6%. The core index, which does not take into account food and energy, may decrease from 4.5% to 4.1%, which will strengthen market expectations regarding a possible reduction in interest rates by the Bank of England. The retail price index is projected to fall from 4.5% to 4.2%. Last week, Megan Green, a member of the bank's board, warned investors that the transition to a softer monetary policy would take time, given the high rate of price growth in the service sector. A number of representatives of the British central bank, including its chairman Andrew Bailey, are expected to speak tomorrow to discuss the latest economic data.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2539, 1.2573.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2261.NZD/USD: significant potential for strengthening the fall of the currency pairThe NZD/USD currency pair has fallen below the support level of 0.5946 and is moving towards 0.5865 amid the strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies after the release of positive macroeconomic data.Traders will closely monitor the release of data on the New Zealand consumer price index for the first quarter, which will be published on Wednesday at 00:45 GMT+2. The index is expected to show growth of 0.6% in the quarter. If the data is confirmed, the New Zealand dollar may recover to the level of 0.5946. In case of negative developments, the NZD/USD will continue to decline to the next support level of 0.5865, overcoming which will open the way to the level of 0.5789.Resistance levels: 0.5946, 0.6005, 0.6069.Support levels: 0.5865, 0.5789.
Apr 16, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, cryptocurrencies, gold and crude oil for Monday, April 15
AUD/USD, currency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, cryptocurrencies, gold and crude oil for Monday, April 15 AUD/USD: pair has approached the support zone of 0.6489–0.6447During the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is approaching the important support zone of 0.6489–0.6447 against the background of American statistics.Last week was marked by the publication of inflation data in the United States, which contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar in the market. The US consumer price index in March showed a monthly increase of 0.4%, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.3%, and the annual index was 3.5%, also higher than the predicted 3.4%. The producer price index increased by 2.1% year-on-year, from the previous 1.6%, although analysts expected an increase to 2.2%, while the monthly index decreased from 0.6% to 0.2%, ahead of forecasts of 0.3%. The core inflation rate rose from 2.1% to 2.4%, while the forecast was 2.3%. These data have increased doubts about the Federal Reserve's willingness to cut the rate by 25 basis points in June.The Australian economy also showed weak results: the number of construction permits issued fell by 1.9% monthly, which is in line with forecasts, while the previous figure was revised from -1.0% to -2.5%.Resistance levels: 0.6629, 0.6657, 0.6859.Support levels: 0.6489, 0.6447, 0.6353, 0.6285.Gold market analysisThe price of gold has stabilized around the level of 2350.00. Last week, gold reached a historic high, rising to the level of 2430.00, however, the bulls failed to hold this position, and many traders decided to realize the accumulated profits.The rise in gold prices continues to be supported by geopolitical instability and forecasts for rate cuts by the world's largest central banks. The European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates as early as June, while the US Federal Reserve is likely to ease monetary policy later, with the first rate cut of 25 basis points expected in September.The latest macroeconomic data from the United States, published on April 12, increased pressure on the US dollar. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell from 79.4 to 77.9 points in April, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 79.0 points. The March import price index increased by 0.4%, accelerating by 0.1% compared to February, and on an annual basis the indicator also increased by 0.4% after a noticeable decrease of 0.8% a month earlier. Today, traders will closely monitor the March retail sales statistics in the United States, growth is expected to slow to 0.3% from February figures. The April index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will also be published, an improvement from -20.9 to -9.0 points is projected.Resistance levels: 2375.00, 2400.00, 2431.44, 2450.00.Support levels: 2353.79, 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00.Cryptocurrency market analysisThe price dynamics of bitcoin tried to rise, breaking the 72000.00 level, but by the end of the week it fell sharply, losing about 14.5% of its value due to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Over the weekend, Iran conducted missile strikes against Israel, which led to investor fears about the possible outbreak of a large-scale military conflict, which, in turn, contributed to the reorientation of investments in defensive assets such as gold and the US dollar. This downward trend affected not only Bitcoin, but also the wide cryptocurrency market, where in a few days there were liquidations of open positions totaling about $2.5 billion. In addition, the pressure on digital assets was influenced by monetary policy, as the chances of continued high interest rates by the US Federal Reserve increased amid renewed inflationary pressures.These events lowered the price of Bitcoin to a six-week low of 60400.00, after which its partial recovery began. Traders are returning to the market, hoping that there will be no further escalation of the Iranian-Israeli conflict, according to representatives of American diplomacy. In this context, a possible resumption of growth of the main cryptocurrency assets, supported by the expectation of an upcoming halving in the Bitcoin network, seems quite likely in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 68750.00, 71875.00, 75000.00.Support levels: 62500.00, 59375.00, 56250.00.Crude Oil market analysisAfter rising to 92.42 on Friday, Brent crude oil quotes are experiencing a correction to 89.85 amid reports that the Iranian attack on Sunday caused minimal damage to Israel's infrastructure.Last week, after aggressive statements by Iranian leaders, the price of oil exceeded 92.00, as market participants feared the expansion of the armed conflict beyond the region. On Sunday, more than 300 rockets and drones were fired at Israel, most of which were successfully shot down by the Iron Dome air defense system. Mohammad Bagheri, the head of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, said that the "True Promise" mission has been completed and no further attacks are planned. According to him, Iran adheres to the principles of the UN Charter and is not interested in escalating the conflict. Against this background, the quotes of Brent Crude Oil moved to a decrease.The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains difficult, which may lead to high volatility in the oil market in the coming months. Given that Iran is a significant oil producer in OPEC with production of more than 3 million barrels per day, the risks of supply interruption associated with sanctions and potential retaliatory actions by Israel contribute to the fact that the current price decline is rather corrective.Resistance levels: 91.95, 93.79, 96.22.Support levels: 89.10, 87.60, 85.39.
Apr 15, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, USD/TRY, NZD/USD and crude oil for Friday, April 12
USD/TRY, currency, EUR/GBP, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, USD/TRY, NZD/USD and crude oil for Friday, April 12 EUR/GBP: the interest rate of the European Central Bank remained at 4.50%The euro is at low levels compared to most major currencies, with the exception of the US dollar, while the EUR/GBP pair shows a corrective movement in morning trading, settling at 0.8541.At yesterday's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), officials, as expected, left the main monetary rates unchanged (the main rate is 4.50%, the marginal rate is 4.75%, the deposit rate is 4.00%) and expressed readiness to reduce them if inflationary pressure decreases. Regulators confirmed that the current slowdown in consumer price growth is in line with medium-term expectations, due to lower prices for food and household goods, but did not specify the timing of a possible change in interest rates. It also announced plans to complete the reinvestment program for emergency asset purchases due to COVID-19 by the end of the year and significantly reduce the asset purchase program. The reduction of the emergency procurement program is taking place at a rate of 7.5 billion euros per month, which will allow it to be completed by the end of November or December.UK economic growth remains weak: in February, GDP growth was, as expected, only 0.1%, which is lower than the previous 0.3%, and this led to a decrease in annual growth to -0.2%. Among the main factors of such dynamics are industrial production, which increased by 1.1%, improving the annual rate to 1.4%, and the construction sector, where a decrease of 1.9% on a monthly basis and 2.0% year-on-year was recorded.Resistance levels: 0.8560, 0.8600.Support levels: 0.8530, 0.8480.USD/TRY: Investors tend to take profits after a week of growthThe USD/TRY currency pair shows ambiguous trends, holding near the level of 32.3165. Traders are refraining from opening new positions on Friday due to the expectation of a limited amount of macroeconomic data from the United States, as well as due to the profit-taking mood after moderate growth during the week. Earlier, the US dollar was helped by inflation data, which increased investors' doubts about the imminent reduction of the US Federal Reserve interest rate by 25 basis points in June.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to economic difficulties in the country. Despite the efforts of monetary authorities and a significant increase in rates by the Central Bank of Turkey, annual inflation accelerated from 67.07% in February to 68.50% in March. At the same time, independent analysts from the Inflation Research Group (ENAG) record an annual price increase of more than 120%. Additionally, on April 9, the Turkish Ministry of Commerce imposed restrictions on the export of 54 categories of goods to Israel, including cement, glass, iron, aluminum and steel, which puts additional pressure on the already strained construction sector. These sanctions, in effect until the end of hostilities and the creation of conditions for free humanitarian aid to Gaza, are likely to raise prices for both Israeli and Turkish consumers.Resistance levels: 32.4500, 32.6000, 32.7500, 32.9000.Support levels: 32.3000, 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306.NZD/USD: the US currency has reached a new recordThe NZD/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction near the 0.5995 level, as the New Zealand currency is facing difficulties in trying to regain its position against the background of disappointing macroeconomic statistics.The March report showed that spending via e-cards in New Zealand decreased by 0.7%, which in absolute terms is a decrease of NZ$ 45 million compared to February. Compared to March of the previous year, 2023, the total amount of expenses decreased by 3.0%. This decrease was recorded in almost all key sectors of the economy: of the seven main sectors, only wholesale trade, with the exception of services, showed an increase of 2.1%. The biggest deterioration was seen in the sectors related to sales of clothing and motor vehicles, each of which showed a 2.2% drop. There was also a decrease in the fuel sectors by 1.4%, durable goods by 0.3% and consumables by 0.2%.These data indicate continued pressure on the New Zealand economy, which negatively affects the national currency and contributes to volatility in the foreign exchange market. The lack of significant improvement in economic indicators may continue to put pressure on the New Zealand dollar in the near term.Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6110.Support levels: 0.5970, 0.5870.Crude Oil market analysisPrices for North American WTI Crude Oil have stabilized at 85.09 in a sideways trend driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and seasonal growth in global fuel demand.The situation in the Middle East remains tense with expectations of possible Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israeli infrastructure, which has led to warnings for citizens of some countries to visit the region. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report predicted that global oil demand will increase to 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, and decrease to 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. A seasonal increase in fuel consumption is also expected in the second quarter: demand for aviation kerosene will grow by 600 thousand barrels per day, for gasoline — by 400 thousand, and for diesel fuel — by 200 thousand barrels per day.Resistance levels: 86.30, 90.00.Support levels: 84.00, 80.60.
Apr 13, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for Wednesday, April 10 for NZD/USD, GBP/USD, gold and crude oil
GBP/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for Wednesday, April 10 for NZD/USD, GBP/USD, gold and crude oil NZD/USD: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate remained at 5.50%The NZD/USD currency pair continues to show moderate growth, strengthening the bullish trend that began at the beginning of the week: currently, the exchange rate is approaching 0.6075, updating the highs since March 21 against the background of the latest decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the key interest rate.As expected, the rate remained at 5.50%. The bank's official statement emphasized the importance of inflationary risks, which implies maintaining high rates for a long period. The bank's authorities also expressed the expectation that economic activity in New Zealand and its main trading partners may decline, in contrast to the stability of the US economy. It is assumed that major global central banks may begin easing monetary policy closer to the middle or end of the year, which will provide more data for analysis and subsequent market reaction.Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair was pressured by fresh data from New Zealand: the business confidence index from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) fell by 25.0% in the first quarter after a 2.0% decline in the previous quarter.Resistance levels: 0.6077, 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158.Support levels: 0.6045, 0.6030, 0.6000, 0.5975.GBP/USD: British retail increased by 3.5% in March%The GBP/USD currency pair shows minimal changes, being at the level of 1.2675. The day before, the pair actively grew and reached the highest since March 21, which was caused by the lack of significant macroeconomic data.The March report by the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC) showed an increase in retail sales in the UK by 3.2%, which is significantly higher than the expected 1.8% and the previous month with an increase of 1.0%. Easter celebrations contributed to a significant increase in demand for food, but overall sales growth remains moderate due to adverse weather and high inflation, with a noticeable increase in grocery spending by 6.8% and a decrease in non-food items by 1.9% in the first quarter. In the United States, business optimism data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) also turned out to be disappointing: the index fell from 89.4 to 88.5 points, falling short of the projected 90.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2810.Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2573, 1.2539.Gold market AnalysisThe price of gold is in the correction phase within the framework of an uptrend, trading at around 2359.0. A new surge of growth is taking place in the market, which is supported by both private and institutional investors.Since the beginning of the year, a number of factors have favored an increase in quotations. The main support for the precious metals market is the current geopolitical tension: in the context of military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, investors prefer investments in protective assets, among which gold acts as a reliable tool for preserving and increasing capital. This is also confirmed by trading volumes: according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), the average trading volume over the past two sessions reached 306.5 thousand positions, which is significantly higher than 278.0 thousand in early March and 134.0 thousand. at the end of February.Resistance levels: 2375.0, 2450.0.Support levels: 2330.0, 2250.0.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, prices for WTI Crude Oil are held at around 84.70, as traders refrain from opening new positions ahead of the release of today's US inflation data at 14:30 GMT+2.The price of oil was influenced by the latest forecasts of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), according to which it is expected that oil production by OPEC+ countries in 2024 will decrease by 930 thousand barrels per day, which is 190 thousand barrels per day more than previous forecasts. By 2025, it is expected to increase production by 750 thousand barrels per day to 36.89 million barrels. Production forecasts for the current year have been adjusted by 470 thousand barrels per day, and for the next year — by 40 thousand barrels. In March, oil prices showed an increase for the third month in a row against the background of geopolitical risks associated with attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea. In addition, the market was influenced by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of commercial oil reserves: in the week to April 5, inventories increased by 3.034 million barrels, while analysts expected an increase of 2.415 million barrels.Resistance levels: 85.50, 86.00, 87.00, 88.00.Support levels: 84.75, 84.00, 83.00, 82.00.
Apr 10, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex Forecast for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Crude Oil Tuesday, April 9th
USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex Forecast for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Crude Oil Tuesday, April 9th NZD/USD: the growth rate slowed down before the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New ZealandSince the beginning of April, the NZD/USD currency pair has been trying to adjust within the medium-term downtrend. At the moment, the growth of the currency has slowed down at 0.6042 (Murray level [2/8]), in anticipation of the results of the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the upcoming publication of data on March inflation in the United States, scheduled for Wednesday.The New Zealand central bank is expected to keep its main interest rate at 5.50%, despite a significant deterioration in economic conditions and the onset of recession at the end of last year. The regulator is likely to emphasize that the inflation rate in the country is still too high, and announce plans to begin easing monetary policy no earlier than 2025, contrary to the expectations of investors, some of whom hope for a rate cut in August. Although such news may temporarily support the growth of NZD/USD, a significant increase in the value of the currency is not expected.Resistance levels: 0.6042, 0.6073, 0.6103.Support levels: 0.6012, 0.5950, 0.5920.USD/CAD: pressure on the Canadian labor market continuesAgainst the background of stabilization of the US dollar and disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Canada, the USD/CAD currency pair is at 1.3576.In March, the Canadian unemployment rate rose from 5.8% to 6.1%, exceeding analysts' expectations, which had predicted an increase to only 5.9%. This change occurred after the total number of employees decreased by 2.2 thousand people, while in the previous month there was an increase of 40.7 thousand with a forecast of 25.9 thousand. In particular, full—time employment decreased by 0.7 thousand, and part-time employment - by 1.6 thousand, with the share of the economically active population unchanged at 65.3%.In the USA, on the contrary, unemployment decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, due to an increase in the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector by 303 thousand compared to 270 thousand in the previous month, and in the private sector by 232 thousand, instead of the expected 207 thousand. This led to an increase in the index of labor market trends from 111.85 to 112.84 points, which should have a positive impact on the value of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3720.Support levels: 1.3530, 1.3380.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD currency pair is showing moderate growth, continuing to develop the active bullish trend observed in recent days, which regularly leads to an update of maximum values: at the moment, the price is testing the level of 2345.00 for a possible upward breakout, in anticipation of new catalysts in the market.The focus of investors' attention is the upcoming publication of March inflation data in the United States. The annual consumer price index is expected to accelerate from 3.2% to 3.4%, which may put pressure on the US Federal Reserve to abandon its conservative monetary strategy. The monthly index is expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%, and core inflation will also adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and from 3.8% to 3.7%. On the same day, the minutes of the Fed's March meeting are expected to be released, which will help clarify the regulator's plans for monetary policy. The main expectation of investors remains a possible interest rate cut as early as June, and at least three adjustments before the end of 2024, although the postponement of the beginning of monetary easing to the end of the year is now being actively considered.Resistance levels: 2353.79, 2375.00, 2400.00, 2425.00.Support levels: 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00, 2285.00.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to show potential for growth, remaining at 91.07 amid growing fears that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas could lead to disruptions in supplies from oil-producing countries in the Middle East.Earlier, oil prices fell amid reports of a decrease in geopolitical tensions: last weekend, Israel announced plans for a partial withdrawal of troops from the southern Gaza Strip, as well as the resumption of peace talks under the auspices of Egypt, which temporarily led to a decrease in prices from 91.95 to 89.11. However, on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said about preparations for a possible invasion of Rafah, which inevitably renewed fears in the market and caused an increase in oil prices.Resistance levels: 91.95, 93.79, 96.22.Support levels: 89.10, 87.60, 85.39.
Apr 09, 2024 Read
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