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Forex analytical forecast for today, September 2, for USDTRY, AUDUSD, USDCAD and oil

AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, September 2, for USDTRY, AUDUSD, USDCAD and oil

USD/TRY: The "American" is holding its highest level

The American currency is moving sideways, testing the maximum level at 18,000. The trading floors are not actively trading due to the uncertainty in the global economy.

Meanwhile, Turkey's regulator is ignoring rising inflation and is in no hurry to tighten monetary parameters. Moreover, the decision made on August 19 surprised economists when the agency decided to lower the key indicator by 1.00% at once and the target reached 13.0% in the conditions when inflation has all chances to reach 80.0%. According to the leader of Turkey, the key rate increase will strengthen inflation, which is completely contrary to the practice of the world central banks. Instead, the president believes it is necessary to attract more investment and increase production in the country in order to strengthen exports.

  • Resistance levels: 18.3000, 18.5000, 18.6500.
  • Support levels: 18.1500, 18.0264, 17.8550, 17.7500.

AUD/USD: the instrument is testing the local lows

The Australian currency trades with insignificant growth, trying to recover the losses incurred the day before, when the pair updated the local minimum of July 18. Experts say the reason for the negative momentum is strong macroeconomic statistics from the U.S., against a moderate news backdrop in Australia.

According to data from AiG Producer Index of Australia for August shrank to 49.3 points against 52.5 points, while the same indicator in the USA from ISM of the same period stayed at 52.8 points, having surpassed the forecast of decline to 52.0 points. The ISM Industrial Employment Rate for August strengthened significantly to 54.2 points from 49.9 points in the prior period, with the market expecting a correction to 49.0 points.

  • Resistance levels: 1.0855, 1.0900, 1.1035.
  • Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0735, 1.0700.

USD/CAD: The Canadian economy is showing resistance

The rising US dollar gives the USD/CAD pair an opportunity to correct within the upward trend at 1.3158.

The Canadian currency keeps the unique property of resistance against the rising US dollar, as the stability of the national economy allows it to stand the negative effect of rising key indicators and to develop growth. According to the data, June GDP growth reached 0.1%, which allowed the index to continue strengthening for the second quarter in a row, rising 0.8%. The annual index reached 4.56%, exceeding the previous index of 2.90%, strengthening 3.3% year-over-year, with the market expecting a 3.1% strengthening for Q1. Next week the Canadian regulator meeting is announced, in which officials are expected to announce the tightening of monetary parameters. According to preliminary estimates, the Bank of Canada will revise the key figure in favor of a 0.75% growth rate, allowing the target to reach 3.25%, adding to the pressure on GDP. The agency remains cautiously hopeful that inflation will be brought under control before a recession hits the national economy, given the strength of the macroeconomic statistics.

  • Resistance levels: 1.3201, 1.3380.
  • Support levels: 1.3055, 1.2758.

Oil market review

The price of "black gold" of the WTI grade got a positive signal, ending the three-day "bearish" impulse that allowed the asset to retreat from the local maximum at the beginning of August, updating the local minimum on August 17.

The negative dynamic on the positions of the tool is provided by the market participants' fears on the decrease of the demand on the raw materials because of the recession of the production capacities in Asia-Pacific region, because China continues to follow the strict quarantine measures within the struggle against spreading of Covid-19 infection, which caused closing of many millions of cities, creating barriers for the logistics chain and stopping of large industrial companies. On the other hand, the positive dynamics for the instrument was given by the statistics on fuel reserves in US storages, based on which EIA (Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy) reported a decrease of 3.326 million barrels, developing a fall of the previous level by 3.282 million barrels, contrary to the expectations of analysts for a decline of 1.483 million barrels.

  • Resistance levels: 90.00, 91.93, 93.97, 96.00.
  • Support levels: 86.95, 85.00, 83.00, 81.00.
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Forex analytical forecast for today, December 5, for NZDUSD, USDCHF, EURUSD and cryptocurrencies
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Forex analytical forecast for today, December 5, for NZDUSD, USDCHF, EURUSD and cryptocurrencies NZDUSD: updating local lowsThe New Zealand currency shows a slight strengthening, revealing the potential of the "bulls" in the pair NZD/USD. The instrument is near the level of 0.6430 with the prospect of strengthening, continuing to update the local maximum of August 15.Investors attribute the positive trend of the asset to a number of technical factors, while the fundamental data was quite contradictory. "The American" got a short-term impulse for the positive dynamics on the background of the release of statistics on the employment market at the end of last week. Thus, the reporting reflected the increase of new vacancies, opened outside of AIC sector for November by 263 thousand, having earlier strengthened by 284,0 thousand for the previous month, at expectations of the market of increase by only 200,0 thousand.Resistance levels: 0.6450, 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6600.Support levels: 0.6400, 0.6350, 0.6288, 0.6250.USDCHF: The US labor market put pressure on dollarIn the Asian trading session the currency pair USD/CHF showed moderate decline, approaching the level of 0.9350.The "bears" resumed its advantage over the American currency, having unsuccessfully attempted to strengthen on Friday amid investors' reaction to the release of the national labor market data in November, according to which the level of new vacancies rose by 263.0 thousand, By the end of October experts adjusted the value of the same indicator to 264.0 thousand from the previous 261.0 thousand, and unemployment remained at 3.7% for November, while the value of average hourly earnings rose to 0.6% monthly from 0.5% while analysts expected correction to 0.3% and annual to 5.1% from 4.9%, with expectations of 4.6%.Resistance levels: 0.9400, 0.9478, 0.9550 and 0.9600.Support levels: 0.9350, 0.9300, 0.9200, 0.9100.EURUSD: Russian oil is under EU sanctionsThe EUR/USD trading instrument is testing the 1.0562 mark.The currency pair is rapidly gaining in value amid the adoption by the European authorities of the price cap on the "black gold" from the Russian Federation. Thus, the sea routes of supplies will be capped at $60/bbl, including insurance costs, freight, etc., which will reduce the actual purchase price by several more dollars. According to Alexander Novak, the Minister of Energy of the RF, such manipulations are contrary to the market pricing mechanism and official Moscow reserves the right to cut the supplies of raw materials to the Eurozone countries which have approved this ban even in spite of the need to reduce hydrocarbon production. Economists assume that the execution of Russia's threats to start supplying energy resources to the alternative market could become a driver for inflation in the EU. Meanwhile, macroeconomic data block displays a negative sentiment. Thus, EU manufacturers in October reported a decline of 2.9% in the price index, having earlier strengthened in September by 1.6%, which lowered the annual rate from 41.9% to 30.8%. Manufacturing capacity in France also continued its strong decline which saw October industrial production decline 2.6%, previously down 0.9% in September.Resistance levels: 1.0640 and 1.0850.Support levels: 1.0490, 1.0320.Cryptocurrency Market AnalysisWithin the previous week, BTC undertook an upward correction, even managed to recover the losses incurred the day before, which helped it to trade at 17400.00 at present.The cryptocurrency market is affected by two opposing factors. First, market participants are frightened by the likely consequences that may occur due to the bankruptcy of the FTX platform, which caused them to reduce investment in the digital segment of the market, as evidenced by the decline in the level of "whales", which, according to statistics from Glassnode, updated the two-year low at 1.662 thousand. Second, cryptocurrencies should find support from monetary factors as announced measures a week earlier by U.S. Federal Reserve officials to lower the pace of interest rate hikes at the December summit weakened the U.S. currency against major competitors, which include digital. Some analysts expect the change in the regulator's rhetoric to start the traditional pre-Christmas "Santa Claus rally," in which market leaders can regain their positions.Resistance levels: 17830.00, 19100.00, 20000.00.Support levels: 16600.00, 15000.00, 13750.00.
Dec 05, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, December 2, for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY & USDCAD
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Forex analytical forecast for today, December 2, for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY & USDCAD EURUSD: consolidation at the local maximumDuring Friday's trading session the EUR/USD currency pair is developing a sideways trend on the market, being at a local high of 1.0520 on June 28.In the last two trading sessions the EUR has rapidly strengthened on the trading floors on the statements of the head of the US Federal Reserve about his intention to decrease the activity of interest rate strengthening. Meanwhile, positive data on consumer prices gave additional support to the instrument, which contributed to the reduction of panic moods about the depth of economic recession in the region. Thus, the EU annualized inflation rate for November fell to 10.0% from 10.6%, while experts expected it to be 0.4% higher, and the monthly calculation showed a deflationary process - a decrease of 0.1%, having earlier strengthened by 1.5% for October. Moreover, economists were able to estimate retail sales in Germany for October which showed a decrease of 2.8% against expectations of 0.6%, and an annual value of 5.0% against expectations of 2.8%. This situation is due to an increase in the cost of goods and services due to which households have reduced the level of demand in all segments. Economists are preparing for a downturn in holiday goods at Christmas and a recession in the German economy by Q4.Resistance levels: 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0640, 1.0700.Support levels: 1.0500, 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0350.GBPUSD: waiting for signals from the statisticsThe British currency shows mixed dynamics, having kept the local maximum of June 27 updated earlier. GBP/USD is at 1.2240, reinforcing a positive trend, but investors are refraining from excessive trading activity on the threshold of the weekend.Today market participants will want to get acquainted with the announced publications on the US employment market. The current estimation foresees the downfall of the new vacancies, without taking into account the AIC sector, for November down to 200.0 thousand from the current 261.0 thousand. Taking into consideration the previous day released by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) corporate reporting on the private sector employment, which came to 127.0 thousand to the expected 200.0 thousand, the probability of the real dynamics worsening is still high. Experts allow for a moderate decline in the rate of increase in hourly earnings to 0.3% from the current 0.4%.Resistance levels: 1.2311, 1.2400, 1.2500, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2152, 1.2027, 1.1939, 1.1853.USDCAD: pair is moving in the sideways trendDuring the Asian trading session the pair USD/CAD is demonstrating sideways movement of quotations, testing the level of 1.3440.Investors are gradually reducing the activity at the session, waiting for the US and Canada employment data in November, the "American" meanwhile is under the influence of the negative factors after the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell`s statement the day before. The official announced plans to reduce the rate of interest rate hike, so it is more appropriate to reduce the degree of "hawks" in tightening of monetary policy. Analysts believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve will strengthen the key indicator at the December meeting to a maximum of 0.50%, followed by an analysis of the situation. Employment expectations call for a 200,000 increase in the non-farm payrolls rate, having previously strengthened by 261,000 in the previous period. Data from Canada may turn out to be even more negative, as market participants expect an increase in the level of employed population by only 5.0 thousand for November, while for October the same indicator was increased by 108.3 thousand.Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3356, 1.3300, 1.3226.USDJPY: pair is under the influence of the bearsThe weaker USD/JPY has allowed the pair USD/JPY to consolidate under the key level of 139.00, after which there is an opportunity to consolidate at the levels of 132.00-130.00.Meanwhile, the situation in the economy of Japan is positive. Thus, the retail sales for October rose by 4,3% mom, which did not meet the market expectations of 5.0%, however it was quite a strong result, capital investments for Q3 added 9,8% yoy, exceeding analysts' estimates of 6.4% and the previous 4,6%. Investors reacted positively to the statistics because it significantly strengthened Japanese Yen.Economists are expecting the publication of the labor market in the United States, announced for today at 15:30 (GMT+2), which according to preliminary data will amount to 200.0 thousand. However, if the actual statistics does not match the expected one, trading instrument USD/JPY has a chance to develop the momentum of "bears".Resistance levels: 139.50, 142.50.Support levels: 135.00, 132.00, 130.00.
Dec 02, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, December 1, for AUDUSD, NZDUSD, Gold & Crude oil
AUD/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, December 1, for AUDUSD, NZDUSD, Gold & Crude oil AUDUSD: pair has reached the level of 0.6800The Australian currency is showing moderate strengthening, having updated the local high of September 13, intending to overcome the resistance threshold of 0.6800.The macroeconomic block of published Australian data failed to affect the markets, meanwhile the traders' attention was spared by the sharp dip in inflation rate for October to 6.9% from 7.3% earlier, contrary to analysts' estimations of further strengthening to the level of 7.4%. Positive support for the instrument was provided by a 2.2% strengthening of the level of completed constructions for Q3, having earlier decreased by 2.0%. Thursday morning publications are not able to support the prospect for the bullish momentum in the pair. Thus, the industrial sector business activity from S&P Global for November moderately declined to 51.3 points from the previous 51.5 points, not justifying even the neutral estimates of the experts.Resistance levels: 0.6853, 0.6900, 0.6950 and 0.7000.Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6750, 0.6700, 0.6650.NZDUSD: updating local highs for AugustThe New Zealand dollar is trading up moderately, having updated the local highs of August 17.Positions in the NZD/USD trading instrument continue to remain under pressure amid weak New Zealand indicators. Thus, sentiment expectations from the ANZ for November updated to -13.7% from the previous -2.5%, disappointing analysts who expected only -2.1%. The head of the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) pointed out that the recession was deliberately triggered to lower the consumer price index, having earlier officially strengthened the percentage by 0,75% to the target of 4,25%, after which investors got the signal that in 2023 the value has a chance to reach the maximum peak of 5,5%. The regulator's updated expectations call for the economy to contract at 1.0% for the next 12 months beginning in mid-Spring and then remain at that level for the next six months before resuming growth.Resistance levels: 0.6350, 0.6400, 0.6450 and 0.6500.Support levels: 0.6288, 0.6250, 0.6200, 0.6155.Gold pricesThe precious metal position in the market updated at 1780.00, intending to continue climbing to the level of 1785.00.Earlier, investors appreciated the speech of the US Federal Reserve chief, who signaled to the markets his intention to slow down the rate of interest rate correction from the next scheduled meeting. Thus, by mid-December, the agency will strengthen the key rate by 0.25%-0.50%, ending the systemic 0.75% hike. The official commented that the current decisions do not signal the end of the "hawkish" era of monetary policy, and the interest rate will remain high for a long time, where it will remain until the consumer price level corrects to the 2.0% target. Investors began to actively sell off the U.S. dollar, giving gold prices a boost on the market.Precious metals continue to see uncertainty in the market. According to the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), last week net speculative positions for commodities were 116.1 thousand instead of 126.3 thousand. Market bears remain the leaders among swap dealers with 191.153 thousand instead of bullish 95.880 thousand, but sellers cut 5.020 thousand contracts, while buyers strengthened 4.259 thousand, which from the outside looks like a correction.Resistance levels: 1785.00, 1806.00, 1877.00.Support levels: 1725.00, 1680.00.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the "black gold" of the Brent grade traded with contradictory dynamics, testing the 86.80 indicator.Positive dynamics for oil meets resistance with expectations of OPEC+ meeting announced for the end of the week. According to Reuters citing unnamed sources, the cartel does not intend to approve an additional reduction in production capacity of raw materials, following the example of the previous meeting in October, where the strategy was changed in favor of increasing plans for 2.0 million barrels per day in view of the unstable situation in the world markets. Recall that since December 5, investors expect an increased level of volatility in the market due to the beginning of the prohibition of supplies of oil by sea from Russia. Moreover, the European alliance countries want to agree on the upper price limit for the Russian raw materials, but could not come to an agreement, as uncertainty and disagreement among members of the bloc continue. It is likely that the European authorities' decision will cause growth in oil without a correction in the production quota.Resistance levels: 87.33, 89.20, 91.00 and 92.47.Support levels: 86.00, 83.89, 82.27, 81.00.
Dec 01, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 29, for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD & Crude oil
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 29, for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD & Crude oil EUR/USD: the EU currency is regaining lossesThe euro is trading in the upward dynamic, ending an ambiguous trend at the beginning of the week, where EUR/USD strengthened at the opening of Monday's session and hit the local high of June 29 at 1.0500. However the "bulls" lost the advantage, and by the end of the day session the pair plunged into negative values.The positive dynamics of the asset is supported by the correctional weakening of the American currency, which continues to be in a "bearish" trend due to the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve System meeting in November. The regulator sent a signal to the market that it is ready to reduce the rate of the key indicator correction already by the end of this year, which supports about 70% of the surveyed experts, expecting to see the next rate hike of 0.50%, and next year the rate may decrease to 0.25%.A positive stimulus for the euro was the briefing of ECB (European Central Bank) Governor Christine Lagarde, who earlier said that the regulator intends to continue strengthening the interest rate, ignoring the risks of economic slowdown, which will reduce business activity in the region. Recall, the agency has set the target level for inflation at 2.0%.Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0450, 1.0500 and 1.0550.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253, 1.0200.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)USD/CAD: the instrument finished the active growthIn the Asian trading session USD/CAD instrument showed slight decline, having earlier shown active strengthening, approaching the resistance level of 1.3500 and the local high of November 10.Investors are trying to realize the market outlook amid the comments of the ECB (European Central Bank) and U.S. Federal Reserve System officials, waiting for the next signals, as macroeconomic announcements include key data. This week, the U.S. will publish data on gross domestic product (GDP) for Q3, as well as report on employment for the current month. By the middle of the week, investors will want to assess China's October business activity which is of particular importance for the market amid mass protests due to tough quarantine measures. Today, on November 29, analysts expect the release of the updated statistics on the Canadian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for Q3. The preliminary estimate for the Canadian economy is expected to decline to 0.4% from 0.8% for the quarter, but the annual value may rise to 3.5% from the current 3.3%.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650.Support levels: 1.3440, 1.3356, 1.3300, 1.3226.NZD/USD: Downward channel continuesThe New Zealand currency holds the upward movement in value, trading at 0.6205, as the macroeconomic bloc contributed to a slight strengthening.According to publications from Stats.NZ (Statistics New Zealand), the employment rate in key sectors of the economy for October adjusted to 2.32 million jobs, but a corrective decline of 1.7% among primary industries, the manufacturing sector showed a strengthening of 0.6%, and the service sector remained flat. By age group, the biggest gain was in the 15-19 category, which added 18.5%, and the biggest outflow was in the 25-29 category, at -3.3%. Part-time employment in the first category is a major contributor to economic performance, so its strengthening was not able to have a significant impact.Resistance levels are at 0.6265 and 0.6467.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.5878.Oil market reviewThe benchmark Brent crude oil price is showing a correction, being slightly below the level of 87.00.There is no general consensus among Eurozone countries on the level of cap on Russian oil. As a diplomat stated the disagreement with the general concept was expressed by the delegation of Poland, continuing to demand the revision of the permissible price level for "black gold" in the range of 65.00-70.00, because based on the current market realities the specified limit does not put any pressure on the Russian economy. Moreover, according to information from market platforms, yesterday the Urals oil brand reached the level of 51.96. Discussions continue, and experts doubt that all parties will agree on the deal by December 5, when the restrictive measures are due to enter into force as part of the eighth package of sanctions, including a ban on oil supplies from Russia via the sea route.Resistance levels: 88.20, 95.00.Support levels: 82.80, 77.50.
Nov 29, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 28, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, Gold & Brent Oil
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 28, for USDJPY, AUDUSD, Gold & Brent Oil USDJPY: The dollar started the trading week with declineThe US currency showed a downward trend against the Japanese yen, holding near the local low of November 15, at 138.50.The dollar has not lost its intention to recover losses since the end of the previous Friday, after the release of the final minutes of the US Federal Reserve System meeting, which indicated the agreement to reduce the "hawkish" intensity regarding the interest rate strengthening in the future. For investors, it gave hope for a 0.50% correction in the next December meeting of the agency. However, financial authorities noted that such a decision does not signal the end of the fight against inflation, because the latter is still being held at record levels.Resistance levels: 139.58, 140.79, 141.50 and 142.54.Support levels: 138.50, 137.50, 136.50, 135.57.AUDUSD: Australia's economy is decliningA downward correction in the Australian currency allowed the AUD/USD pair to reach the 0.6685 level."Bears" gained the dominant advantage after the release of weak macroeconomic data. According to the ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics), retail turnover for October was down 0.2% after strengthening 0.6%, the first time since December's 4.1% slump last year that the value has corrected downwards, the current swing was due to the weakening of all major industries except perhaps the grocery retail sector. Department stores were the key contributors to the negative movement, down 2.4%, followed by clothing retailing with -2.0% and restaurant and café chains also down -0.4% for the first time since January. The head of statistics of the retail segment of the ABS noted that the current situation is caused by an increase in the percentage indicator and will have a long-term impact on the market.Resistance levels: 0.6765, 0.6970.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6410.Read more: AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotesGold pricesThe price of the precious metal is consolidating at 1750.00, waiting for another positive signal, ending the moderate strengthening the day before, where the correction in gold was due to the weakness of the US dollar because of the release of November minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting.This week is important for further price movement of the asset, first of all, the release of the euro area consumer price statistics, as well as the data on the US employment market in November, which will be announced by the end of the week. Preliminary market assessments imply the reduction of the inflation rate to 10.4% from 10.6%, while the core CPI value will remain at the same level of 5.0%. The labor market statistics from the US are not expected to be sensational as forecasts expect new job postings excluding the agribusiness sector for November at 208,0K previously showing an October increase of 261,0K and the number of unemployed to display zero correction and remain at 3.7%.Resistance levels: 1765.30, 1786.28, 1800.00, 1816.62.Support levels: 1734.91, 1720.00, 1700.00, 1688.58.Oil signalsThe current trading week started with the active decrease in the Brent oil, revealing the potential of the "bears", which had gained the advantage since the end of the previous week, getting ready to test the 81.00 level.A decline in U.S. crude reserves provides little support for the "black gold. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported a week earlier that strategic reserves were down by 3.691 million barrels, having previously declined by another 5.4 million barrels. Meanwhile, OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) approved an extended license for 6 months for the largest national energy enterprise, which will allow the supply of oil and petroleum products from Venezuela, partially offsetting the shortfall in the Russian oil market and stabilizing the fall in market prices. However, the document still prohibits the payment of any tax duty or royalty to the Venezuelan government, besides receiving any dividend from PDVSA, which is a Venezuelan state oil company or other legal entity is still prohibited.Resistance levels: 82.27, 83.89, 86.00, 87.00.Support levels: 81.00, 80.00, 78.28, 77.00.
Nov 28, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 22, for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD & Gold
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 22, for AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD & Gold AUD/USD: The Australian currency is testing 0.6600The AUD/USD posted a weak strengthening in an attempt to recover losses incurred from an earlier correction, where the AUD/USD updated to a local low on Nov. 11. The asset is trading at 0.6620, supported by a technical factor.Investors took wait-and-see attitude, wishing to evaluate the final minutes of U.S. Federal Reserve officials meeting, announced for Wednesday. The market expects the financial authorities to lower the rate of interest rate hike, but statements of the Board members will be no less important. During the afternoon session, investors expect statements from the chairman of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), where they will be able to adjust forecasts regarding the prospects of tightening monetary parameters in the future. Statistics with economic fundamentals is announced for Wednesday of this week. Among other things, economists want to assess business activity from the Commonwealth Bank and S&P Global in November. The current expectations are for the service sector to drop to 49.1 points from 49.3 points and for manufacturing to drop to 52.4 points from 52.7 points.Resistance levels are 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6750 and 0.6800.Support levels: 0.6583, 0.6520, 0.6450, 0.6400.USD/CHF: Investors await the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meetingThe American currency is trading unsteady lower near the local high reached earlier on November 11. Traders refrained from excessive activity on the markets wishing to get acquainted with the outcome protocols of the U.S. regulator; besides the block of macroeconomic indicators on durable goods orders in October and PMI in November is of interest to them. Please be reminded that experts place their bets on slowdown in monetary policy tightening by the US financial authorities. According to insiders, during the December summit the Fed may soften the hawkish rhetoric and the interest rate will be raised only by 0.50% against the usual 0.75%. However, the upper bound on the target correction may also be revised upward because consumer price pressures are above the 2.0% target.Resistance levels: 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9700, 0.9762.Support levels: 0.9550, 0.9478, 0.9400, 0.9350.Read more: USD/CHF: forex signals, online trading forecasts for today, characteristics & featuresUSD/CAD: The "bulls" lost the advantage at 1.3475The upward movement of the trading instrument to 1.3475 is due to the weakness of the Canadian currency because of the "black gold" WTI quotations slump, which decreased from 94.00 to 75.80. In the course of two weeks the asset losses reached 19.4%.The energy carrier correction the day before was 5% amid The Wall Street Journal report about the OPEC's intention to increase production by 500.0 thousand barrels a day to compensate for a possible decline of raw materials in Europe, but the information was denied by participants of the organization, after which the "black gold" resumed its positions at the opening session level earlier this week, and trading instrument USD/CAD retreated from its peak at 1.3475, preparing to develop a downward trend.The long-term prospect of the price movement remains for the "bears" in the market. The day before the investors had no success in testing the resistance levels of 1.3530-1.3475. It is likely that further decline will help the asset to update the minimum at the levels of 1.3250-1.3200, and after the retreat from the threshold of 1.3200, the negative dynamics will strengthen and the testing of the value 1.2970 will follow.Resistance levels: 1.3475, 1.3530.Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3200.Gold priceThe price of the precious metal is correcting in a downtrend, testing the level of 1744.00.The upward trend of the asset ended, after which the "bears" regained the asset advantage due to the alarming news background from China, which has already confirmed the death of its citizens, who were infected with the Covid-19 infection. Authorities have now begun closing industrial centers, raising fears of a complete lockdown in the provinces, which may increase pressure on the gold position.China held the leading position among consumers and miners of the asset, which is only confirmed by updated data from processing centers in Switzerland. For October, the country exported 159.57 tons of bank metal, the bulk of which was shipped to China, accounting for a share of 43.7 tons. This level is slightly lower than the 44.02 for September, reflecting lower demand due to increased quarantine measures in some provinces of the Celestial Empire. Turkey, according to the statistics, holds second place, as gold shipments to Ankara for October totaled 31.4 tons, behind September imports of 32.2 tons, confirming a trend of locally lower metal consumption.Support levels: 1725.0, 1665.0.Resistance levels: 1780.0, 1850.0.
Nov 22, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 21, for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY & EUR/USD
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 21, for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY & EUR/USD NZD/USD: the pair is testing local highsThe currency of New Zealand shows a moderate decline, being at 0.6120, with the prospect of further decline.A block of macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand is a moderate support for the currency pair NZD/USD. According to the figures, credit card spending for October increased by 24.8%, previously showing a strengthening of 34.1% in September, while analysts were expecting 5.3%. By the end of today's trading investors expect the release of statistics on the balance of imports and exports for October. Current forecasts call for the national deficit level to strengthen to -$12.52 billion from last year's -$11.95 billion. The mid-week release of data from the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) officials meeting is announced. Economists expect the regulator to continue the pace of monetary policy tightening and raise the interest rate by 0.75%, bringing the target to 4.25%.Resistance levels: 0.6155, 0.6200, 0.6250 and 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6050, 0.6000, 0.5941.USD/CAD: bulls are developing an advantage over the US dollarIn the Asia-Pacific trading session the instrument USD/CAD keeps the "bullish" dynamic obtained a week earlier after the quotes' update of the low of September 15, now testing the level of 1.3400.The head of the Central Bank of Canada noted that, according to the forecasts of the board, the national economy will reach about zero growth dynamics by mid-2023, which only gives more confidence to the "hawks" to continue to increase interest rates, despite the pressure on a number of households, which will only increase against the rising cost of living and increased borrowing costs. According to the governor, a premature unwinding of the adjustment program would negate any earlier efforts to fight inflation, allowing the latter to resume growth, and the Bank of Canada would be forced to approve more drastic measures, putting unprecedented pressure on business in the short term.Resistance levels: 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3356, 1.3300, 1.3226, 1.3150.USD/JPY: The next level for the pair is 140.45The trading instrument USD/JPY is displaying a multidirectional trend and has the prospect of breaking through the level of 140.45. Investors' hopes for further monetary tightening on the part of the national regulator act as a moderate support for the USD.Meanwhile, macroeconomic indicators from the USA are keeping neutral. Thus, by the end of the previous week investors appreciated the statistics on residential real estate sales on secondary market, which showed a 5,9% decline in October, having earlier decreased by 1,5% against experts' expectations of -0,1%. Absolute sales fell to 4.43 million from 4.71 million, against market expectations of 4.38 million.Macroeconomic indicators from Japan turned out to be more optimistic. For example, consumer prices for October rose to 3.7% from 3.0% last month, falling short of analysts' expectations of 2.7%. Excluding food commodities and energy segment, the acceleration of inflation was 2.5% against the previous 1.8%, beating experts' forecast of 1.9%. Japan's head of monetary authorities is confident that the core inflation rate may lose any chance of strengthening in 2023, returning to a stable 2.0% level despite uncertainties in the global and national economy.Resistance levels: 140.79, 141.50, 142.54, 143.51.Support levels: 139.90, 138.50, 137.50, 136.50.Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewEUR/USD: The bulls are set to resume their advantage in the pairThe currency pair EUR/USD is slightly correcting testing the level of 1.0270, thus getting back from the active quotes' growth in the first half of the current month.The rhetoric of the national regulators on toughening of the monetary policy should be taken into account for a long-term forecast of the instrument movement. The EU currency has a chance to get stronger against the "American", since the US FRS is likely to decrease the growth rate of the key index amid its approaching the optimal threshold of 4.75%-5.00%, which will make the Euro more attractive for investors. The ECB (European Central Bank) is not yet close to its inflation target, which gives the agency an opportunity to increase the key figure more aggressively at a rapid pace.Resistance levels: 1.0460, 1.0780.Support levels: 1.0090, 0.9740.
Nov 21, 2022 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, November 17, for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD & Brent oil
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, November 17, for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD & Brent oil EUR/USD: US dollar is under pressureThe EUR/USD has been in an uptrend for two weeks in a row, hitting 1.0400. However the positive dynamics is supported not so much by the strengthening of the European currency as by the correction momentum of the American currency due to the October publication of the US CPI, which showed a significant reduction of its potential.The annual CPI reading was down to 7.7% from 8.2% previously, while producer prices were down to 8.0% from 8.4% previously. The publications reinforced hopes for a correction in the pace of further monetary policy tightening from the US Federal Reserve and fueled a potential resurgence of investor activity in the segment of risky assets. FOMC officials are attempting to avoid an overly optimistic wave for the market, noting that weaker inflation in October does not yet point to a victory over inflation, noting that the key rate cap has a chance of correcting, contrary to the current set plans. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to decline and at the time of writing.Resistance levels: 1.0498, 1.0620.Support levels: 1.0376, 1.0253, 1.0131.USD/JPY: Japanese regulator is set to stabilize inflationThe yen made a successful attempt to recover value on the back of the weakening US currency, which was complemented by currency interventions on the initiative of the Central Bank of Japan, allowing the trading instrument to test 139.62.In his speech early last week, central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated the monetary authorities' commitment to "dovish" monetary policy to support economic activity and achieve stability and sustainability in the fight against inflation, which has encouraged the government to raise wages that lagged three quarters in a row. The government will hold consultations with labor and business representatives in the spring and should reach an agreement on a 3.0% wage increase for employees, rather than the 2.0% increase that was previously planned. According to the plans of the members of the central bank's board, this option will be possible due to the reduction of the national inflation rate to the target of 1.5% at the background of the correction impulse in the cost of raw materials in the world.Support levels: 137.65, 132.86.Resistance levels: 140.80 and 145.00.AUD/USD: trend can change to positive"The bulls keep trying to break over the psychological threshold of 0.6725, wishing to take full advantage of the moment of the weak American currency.Australia's regulator at the end of its extreme monetary parameters meeting confirmed its intention to continue to actively raise the key indicator, however it noted that the degree of correction is closely linked to the incoming macroeconomic indicators and preliminary estimates of employment and price pressures. Officials had projected that consumer prices would slow to an upper 3.0% as early as December, but the value was later revised upward to 2025. Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed an increase in payroll indexation, which shows the average worker's pay, excluding bonuses, to 1.0% in the quarterly display, the highest since 2012 to the previous period, and average wages reached 3.1% versus 2.6% in the past, but behind a 7.3% increase in inflation.Resistance levels: 0.6725, 0.6900, 0.6990.Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6290.Read more: AUDUSD: analysis, signals, forecast for today and quotesOil market signalsThe benchmark Brent crude oil brand recorded positions below the level of 91.00.The price of "black gold" is again under the influence of "bears" on the data on decrease of weekly reserve in the USA. According to API (American Petroleum Institute), the value decreased by 5.833 million barrels against 5.618 million barrels increase a week earlier, while EIA (Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy) reported that the indicator correction was -5.400 million barrels from 3.925 million barrels earlier. The rate of decline of the strategic reserve in the U.S. updated the 1984 value of 392.1 million barrels, indicating a steady demand for hydrocarbons, which is only confirmed by the report of Petro-Logistics, which is a service to track the movement of oil tankers. As it follows from the statistics, there has been a decline in crude supplies to the cartel countries since the beginning of this month. The service analysts expect the negative indicators to increase by the end of November and the correction dynamics for exports to 1.0 million barrels per day, which meets the OPEC+ targets of reducing production capacity by 2.0 million bpd, set a week earlier in Vienna.Support levels: 89.20, 82.87.Resistance levels: 94.00, 98.87.
Nov 17, 2022 Read
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