Forex analytical forecast for today, September 7, for GBPUSD, Nikkei 225, Gold & Oil

GBP/USD, currency, Nikkei 225, index, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, September 7, for GBPUSD, Nikkei 225, Gold & Oil

GBP/USD: the "Briton" may update the March 2020 low

The British currency is trading in a moderate decline, moving away from trying to consolidate its success since the beginning of the trading week. GBP/USD reached 1.1450 with the prospect of a decline, getting closer to the March 2020 low updated at the beginning of the previous week.

The US dollar gained positive momentum thanks to macroeconomic statistics released earlier. According to the data, the ISM Service Employment Index for August rose to 50.2 points from 49.1 points, while a correction to 48.2 had been expected, the ISM Service Business Activity for the same period rose to 56.9 points from the previous 56.7, while a decrease to 55.1 was expected. Primary service orders strengthened to 61.8 points from 59.9 points previously, contrary to a forecast of a weakening to 57.0 points. Economists noted the strength of the U.S. economy, allowing the national regulator to hold the hawks' course on tightening monetary parameters as part of its fight against record levels of inflation.

  • Resistance levels: 1.1531, 1.1600, 1.1647, 1.1700.
  • Support levels: 1.1442, 1.1380, 1.1300, 1.1250.

Gold Prices

Prices of the precious metal continue to develop a corrective decline within the framework of the "bearish" momentum that came earlier. Strong U.S. statistics released the day before offset attempts of the asset to consolidate near the local high of August 30.

Investors' attention was focused around the release of "Beige Book" data announced the day before - the reporting of the U.S. regulator on a regular basis. Moreover, the Canadian Central Bank will announce its stance on monetary policy correction. According to preliminary estimates, the index is expected to strengthen by 0.75%, up to the target of 3.25%. ECB officials will hold a working meeting on Thursday to announce a decision on interest rate hike, which could rise by 50 basis points to the 1.00% target. In general, the demand for banking metal continues to decline, which is confirmed by the report of the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USA). Thus, the level of contracts on gold by speculators corrected to 117.7 thousand against 125.8 thousand, keeping trends in favor of sellers' deals. The advantage remains with the "bears" in the market, but the "bulls" continue to lose ground, changing the index to 21.925 thousand from 53.688 thousand by the sellers. During the current week buyers liquidated 0.615 deals, sellers - 2.989 thousand.

  • Resistance levels: 1700.00, 1720.00, 1730.00, 1752.87.
  • Support levels: 1688.58, 1675.00, 1660.15, 1644.36.

Oil market review

Within the trading session of Asian region, the price of WTI oil is moving downward correction, being at the level of 85.00, having updated the local minimum of the second half of January.

Because of the news background on the level of demand for the asset, markets ignored the statement of the OPEC +, which declared a firm position to abandon the increase in production by 100,000 barrels per day since early autumn, but even this value is not enough to significantly change trends in the market. It should be noted that the current level of oil production from the cartel is 3.0 million barrels less than the set target. Meanwhile, today investors expect the API (American Petroleum Institute) report on U.S. crude inventory levels for the last days of September 2. The previous swing showed a modest increase of 0.593mmbbl.

  • Resistance levels: 86.95, 90.00, 91.93 and 93.97.
  • Support levels: 85.00, 83.00, 81.00, 80.00.

NI 225 index review

The Japanese stock market is trading under heavy pressure as global economic indicators fall and the Treasury securities market strengthens. As of today, the NI 225 index is testing the 27420.0 level.

The release of weak data on household spending, which showed a 1.4% monthly drop, put more pressure on the index. At the same time, analysts admit the probability of changing the trend in the instrument as early as Thursday, as the publication of the national GDP data is expected. According to preliminary expectations, the outlook for the value has positive potential and is likely to strengthen by 0.7% for Q2, providing support for a 2.9% annualized GDP, with a 2.2% growth forecast.

  • Support levels: 27240.0, 26000.0.
  • Resistance levels: 27870.0, 29100.0.
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Analytical Forex forecast for Wednesday, April 10 for NZD/USD, GBP/USD, gold and crude oil
GBP/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for Wednesday, April 10 for NZD/USD, GBP/USD, gold and crude oil NZD/USD: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate remained at 5.50%The NZD/USD currency pair continues to show moderate growth, strengthening the bullish trend that began at the beginning of the week: currently, the exchange rate is approaching 0.6075, updating the highs since March 21 against the background of the latest decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the key interest rate.As expected, the rate remained at 5.50%. The bank's official statement emphasized the importance of inflationary risks, which implies maintaining high rates for a long period. The bank's authorities also expressed the expectation that economic activity in New Zealand and its main trading partners may decline, in contrast to the stability of the US economy. It is assumed that major global central banks may begin easing monetary policy closer to the middle or end of the year, which will provide more data for analysis and subsequent market reaction.Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair was pressured by fresh data from New Zealand: the business confidence index from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) fell by 25.0% in the first quarter after a 2.0% decline in the previous quarter.Resistance levels: 0.6077, 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158.Support levels: 0.6045, 0.6030, 0.6000, 0.5975.GBP/USD: British retail increased by 3.5% in March%The GBP/USD currency pair shows minimal changes, being at the level of 1.2675. The day before, the pair actively grew and reached the highest since March 21, which was caused by the lack of significant macroeconomic data.The March report by the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC) showed an increase in retail sales in the UK by 3.2%, which is significantly higher than the expected 1.8% and the previous month with an increase of 1.0%. Easter celebrations contributed to a significant increase in demand for food, but overall sales growth remains moderate due to adverse weather and high inflation, with a noticeable increase in grocery spending by 6.8% and a decrease in non-food items by 1.9% in the first quarter. In the United States, business optimism data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) also turned out to be disappointing: the index fell from 89.4 to 88.5 points, falling short of the projected 90.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2810.Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2573, 1.2539.Gold market AnalysisThe price of gold is in the correction phase within the framework of an uptrend, trading at around 2359.0. A new surge of growth is taking place in the market, which is supported by both private and institutional investors.Since the beginning of the year, a number of factors have favored an increase in quotations. The main support for the precious metals market is the current geopolitical tension: in the context of military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, investors prefer investments in protective assets, among which gold acts as a reliable tool for preserving and increasing capital. This is also confirmed by trading volumes: according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), the average trading volume over the past two sessions reached 306.5 thousand positions, which is significantly higher than 278.0 thousand in early March and 134.0 thousand. at the end of February.Resistance levels: 2375.0, 2450.0.Support levels: 2330.0, 2250.0.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, prices for WTI Crude Oil are held at around 84.70, as traders refrain from opening new positions ahead of the release of today's US inflation data at 14:30 GMT+2.The price of oil was influenced by the latest forecasts of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), according to which it is expected that oil production by OPEC+ countries in 2024 will decrease by 930 thousand barrels per day, which is 190 thousand barrels per day more than previous forecasts. By 2025, it is expected to increase production by 750 thousand barrels per day to 36.89 million barrels. Production forecasts for the current year have been adjusted by 470 thousand barrels per day, and for the next year — by 40 thousand barrels. In March, oil prices showed an increase for the third month in a row against the background of geopolitical risks associated with attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea. In addition, the market was influenced by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of commercial oil reserves: in the week to April 5, inventories increased by 3.034 million barrels, while analysts expected an increase of 2.415 million barrels.Resistance levels: 85.50, 86.00, 87.00, 88.00.Support levels: 84.75, 84.00, 83.00, 82.00.
Apr 10, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex Forecast for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Crude Oil Tuesday, April 9th
USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex Forecast for NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold and Crude Oil Tuesday, April 9th NZD/USD: the growth rate slowed down before the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New ZealandSince the beginning of April, the NZD/USD currency pair has been trying to adjust within the medium-term downtrend. At the moment, the growth of the currency has slowed down at 0.6042 (Murray level [2/8]), in anticipation of the results of the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the upcoming publication of data on March inflation in the United States, scheduled for Wednesday.The New Zealand central bank is expected to keep its main interest rate at 5.50%, despite a significant deterioration in economic conditions and the onset of recession at the end of last year. The regulator is likely to emphasize that the inflation rate in the country is still too high, and announce plans to begin easing monetary policy no earlier than 2025, contrary to the expectations of investors, some of whom hope for a rate cut in August. Although such news may temporarily support the growth of NZD/USD, a significant increase in the value of the currency is not expected.Resistance levels: 0.6042, 0.6073, 0.6103.Support levels: 0.6012, 0.5950, 0.5920.USD/CAD: pressure on the Canadian labor market continuesAgainst the background of stabilization of the US dollar and disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Canada, the USD/CAD currency pair is at 1.3576.In March, the Canadian unemployment rate rose from 5.8% to 6.1%, exceeding analysts' expectations, which had predicted an increase to only 5.9%. This change occurred after the total number of employees decreased by 2.2 thousand people, while in the previous month there was an increase of 40.7 thousand with a forecast of 25.9 thousand. In particular, full—time employment decreased by 0.7 thousand, and part-time employment - by 1.6 thousand, with the share of the economically active population unchanged at 65.3%.In the USA, on the contrary, unemployment decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, due to an increase in the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector by 303 thousand compared to 270 thousand in the previous month, and in the private sector by 232 thousand, instead of the expected 207 thousand. This led to an increase in the index of labor market trends from 111.85 to 112.84 points, which should have a positive impact on the value of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3720.Support levels: 1.3530, 1.3380.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD currency pair is showing moderate growth, continuing to develop the active bullish trend observed in recent days, which regularly leads to an update of maximum values: at the moment, the price is testing the level of 2345.00 for a possible upward breakout, in anticipation of new catalysts in the market.The focus of investors' attention is the upcoming publication of March inflation data in the United States. The annual consumer price index is expected to accelerate from 3.2% to 3.4%, which may put pressure on the US Federal Reserve to abandon its conservative monetary strategy. The monthly index is expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%, and core inflation will also adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and from 3.8% to 3.7%. On the same day, the minutes of the Fed's March meeting are expected to be released, which will help clarify the regulator's plans for monetary policy. The main expectation of investors remains a possible interest rate cut as early as June, and at least three adjustments before the end of 2024, although the postponement of the beginning of monetary easing to the end of the year is now being actively considered.Resistance levels: 2353.79, 2375.00, 2400.00, 2425.00.Support levels: 2336.50, 2320.00, 2300.00, 2285.00.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to show potential for growth, remaining at 91.07 amid growing fears that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas could lead to disruptions in supplies from oil-producing countries in the Middle East.Earlier, oil prices fell amid reports of a decrease in geopolitical tensions: last weekend, Israel announced plans for a partial withdrawal of troops from the southern Gaza Strip, as well as the resumption of peace talks under the auspices of Egypt, which temporarily led to a decrease in prices from 91.95 to 89.11. However, on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said about preparations for a possible invasion of Rafah, which inevitably renewed fears in the market and caused an increase in oil prices.Resistance levels: 91.95, 93.79, 96.22.Support levels: 89.10, 87.60, 85.39.
Apr 09, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD and AUD/USD for Monday, April 8th
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD and AUD/USD for Monday, April 8th EUR/USD: Euro stabilizes near the 1.0830 levelDuring the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair shows consolidation near the 1.0830 level. After moderate growth on Friday, the euro moved to a decline by the end of the week, helped by new data on the American labor market.March statistics showed an increase in the number of jobs outside the US agricultural sector to 303 thousand, which significantly exceeded the previous figure of 270 thousand and analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 200 thousand. The unemployment rate decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, while the average hourly wage accelerated from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and decreased from 4.3% to 4.1% on an annual basis. Despite the strengthening of the labor market, this may force the US Federal Reserve to continue its cautious monetary policy.Meanwhile, European economic indicators released on Friday were below expectations. Production orders in Germany rose slightly by 0.2% after falling by 11.4% a month earlier, falling short of the projected level of 0.8%. Retail sales in the eurozone fell by 0.5% compared with zero change in January, while a decrease of 0.4% was expected. The annual sales dynamics improved from -0.9% to -0.7%, ahead of forecasts of -1.3%. These weak indicators reflect the pressure that inflation and high interest rates from the European Central Bank are putting on consumer demand and household budgets.Resistance levels: 1.0842, 1.0863, 1.0900, 1.0930.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730.USD/JPY: the head of the Central Bank of Japan assessed the prospects for the growth of national inflationDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY pair showed a bullish trend, reaching the level of 151.82 after Friday's data, which increased investors' doubts about the possibility of lowering rates by the US Federal Reserve at the June meeting. The report of the US Department of Labor showed an increase in the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector by 303 thousand, which significantly exceeded the forecast of 200 thousand, and a revision of February data from 275 thousand to 270 thousand. The unemployment rate decreased from 3.9% to 3.8%, while analysts did not expect changes, and the average hourly wage rose from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, although it slowed from 4.3% to 4.1% year-on-year.Friday's data from Japan was mixed: household spending decreased by 0.5% after falling by 6.3% a month earlier, against expectations of a decline of 3.0%. The index of leading indicators rose from 108.5 to 111.8 points, exceeding expectations of 111.6 points, while the index of matching indicators fell from 112.1 to 110.9 points. Recently published data showed an improvement in the balance of payments from 457 billion yen to 2444.2 billion yen, below the forecast of 3112.5 billion yen, and average wages increased from 1.5% to 1.8%, which may affect inflation expectations. The Eco Watchers index on the current situation fell from 51.3 to 49.8 points, and the forecast of events decreased from 53 to 51.2 points.Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan, said last week that inflation could accelerate by autumn due to wage growth, the highest in the last 33 years, agreed with trade unions last month. Investors took this as a signal of a possible interest rate adjustment, recalling that on March 19, the rate was raised for the first time since 2016 from -0.10% to a range of 0.00%-0.10%. Ueda stressed that the 2.0% inflation target has not yet been reached, and that high import costs continue to affect prices, while the weakening yen may become an additional factor influencing any decision to increase borrowing costs.Resistance levels: 152.00, 152.50, 153.00, 153.50.Support levels: 151.50, 151.00, 150.50, 150.00.USD/CAD: the Bank of Canada considers the anonymity of the CBDC the key to the success of the digital currencyDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair is actively testing the 1.3600 level, trying to gain a foothold above this mark. The end of last week was marked by exceeding this limit and updating the November highs, although by Friday the pair had declined, despite the positive data from the American macroeconomics.On the other hand, the employment situation in Canada turned out to be less favorable: the number of jobs decreased by 2.2 thousand, while an increase of 40.7 thousand was previously recorded, and an increase of 25.0 thousand was predicted. The unemployment rate increased from 5.8% to 6.1%, higher than the expected 5.9%, and the average hourly wage increased from 4.9% to 5.0%. However, the March Ivey business activity index rose from 53.9 to 57.5 points, exceeding analysts' expectations of 54.2 points.A Bank of Canada report titled "CBDC: Banking and Anonymity" highlights that privacy will be an important aspect for users with the possible introduction of the digital Canadian dollar. It will also attract the attention of banks, which may consider not including such transactions in financial statements, thereby creating problems for regulators when assessing the creditworthiness of companies. In turn, commercial banks may seek to reduce the anonymity of the digital currency to reduce credit risks, which will require stricter credit standards to achieve balance.Resistance levels: 1.3616, 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750.Support levels: 1.3580, 1.3550, 1.3524, 1.3500.AUD/USD: Australia's industrial sector continues to be under pressureThe AUD/USD currency pair remains stable at 0.6576, as it was last week, against the background of a temporary weakening of the US dollar and optimistic economic data from Australia.In February, an increase in the total amount of new housing loans was recorded by 1.2%, and an annual comparison showed an increase of 21.5%. During the month, the number of loans issued to owners renting housing increased by 0.9%, while loans for the purchase of new housing increased by 4.3%. The cost of loans for new tenants was 9.1% higher than in February of the previous year, and 20.7% more for first-time home buyers. However, exports decreased from 1.5% to -2.2%, and imports increased from 1.4% to 4.8%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 10.058 billion Australian dollars to 7.280 billion. These data reflect ongoing pressure on the industrial sector, but also point to the potential for increased domestic consumption.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6720.Support levels: 0.6550, 0.6450.
Apr 08, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and Silver for Thursday, April 4, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and Silver for Thursday, April 4, 2024 EUR/USD: trend line analysisDuring morning trading in Asia, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to grow, reaching 1.0844, maintaining the positive trend of the last day.The published economic indicators had a limited impact on the pair's movement. In March, the consumer price index in the eurozone rose by 0.8% month-on-month, leading to a decrease in annual inflation from 2.6% to 2.4%. The core index excluding the cost of food and energy dropped to 2.9% from 3.1%. At the same time, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.5%. It is expected that additional data on production inflation for February, which will be published at 11:00 GMT, will show a decrease in the producer price index by -0.7% month-on-month and by -8.6% year-on-year, confirming the stability of previous values. The March figures also indicate a decrease in annual inflation to 2.4% and an increase in monthly inflation to 0.8%, with a decrease in the base index to 2.9% year-on-year, but with an increase to 1.1% month-on-month.Resistance levels: 1.0924, 1.1033.Support levels: 1.0807, 1.0732.NZD/USD: the US dollar remains stable without forming a trendIn the Asian session, the NZD/USD exchange rate has been rising, holding near the 0.6028 level due to the weakening of the USD.Statistics from New Zealand show an increase in permits for the construction of new homes in February by 2,795 thousand or 6% compared to last year. Among these, 1,297 thousand permits were issued for the construction of individual houses (a decrease of 0.5%), and 1,498 thousand for apartment buildings (a decrease of 10%). However, taking into account seasonal fluctuations, the total number of building permits increased by 15%, while a decrease of -8.6% was recorded in January. Separately, there is a decrease in the commodity price index according to ANZ Group in March by -1.3% after an increase of 3.6% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 0.6050, 0.6130.Support levels: 0.5990, 0.5920.AUD/USD: RBA introduces measures to increase banks' liquidityThe AUD/USD currency pair shows a noticeable upward trend, overcoming the level of 0.6585 and updating the highs reached on March 21, thanks to the upward correction that began on Tuesday.The Australian dollar is strengthening against the background of the latest macroeconomic data from the country: the March index of business activity in the services sector, measured by the Commonwealth Bank, rose from 53.5 to 54.4, and the overall economic index improved from 52.4 to 53.3. At the same time, data on construction permits in February showed mixed results: annual growth accelerated from 4.8% to 5.2%, but the monthly figure decreased by 1.9%, despite expectations of growth of 3.3% after the previous fall of 2.5%.Chris Kent, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), announced plans to introduce an innovative method of maintaining the liquidity of financial institutions, including conducting REPO operations on the open market at rates close to the target level through full-coverage auctions. This measure is designed to support the banking sector, which was actively supplied with cash during the pandemic, in the face of reduced reserves due to repayment of emergency loans, thereby minimizing the risks of unforeseen volatility and market disruptions.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6616, 0.6638, 0.6667.Support levels: 0.6578, 0.6558, 0.6540, 0.6524.Silver market analysisThe value of silver is experiencing a slight drop, moving away from the peak values of June 2021, reached at the beginning of afternoon trading on Thursday, while the asset is checking the level of 27.00 for a possible further decline. Investors are anxiously awaiting the release of the March report on the state of the US labor market, which is expected at the end of the week and may provide new information about a potential reduction in loan rates by the US Federal Reserve System (FRS).The market is also focused on the consequences of the recent speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who, according to expectations, stressed the need for a detailed analysis of economic data to confirm a steady decline in the inflation rate to the 2% target. Powell emphasized that the Fed will not rush to make decisions, given the continued stability of the American economy. Current forecasts tend to expect an interest rate cut of 25 basis points as early as June, with a probability slightly above 50%, which causes some analysts to argue about the possible postponement of the change in the regulator's approach to a later date.On the eve of these events, the growth of the asset was hindered by the latest macroeconomic data from the United States from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) concerning employment in the private sector: March figures showed an increase of 184 thousand, which exceeded both the previous month with its 155 thousand and the projected 148 thousand.Resistance levels: 27.33, 27.60, 28.00, 28.29.Support levels: 27.00, 26.57, 26.19, 26.00.
Apr 04, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF for Tuesday, April 2
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF for Tuesday, April 2 EUR/USD: ahead of German March inflationThe EUR/USD currency pair continues to move downwards, continuing the "bearish" trend of the previous day, and approaches the level of 1.0730, updating the minimum values since February 15. With the resumption of active trading after the celebration of Catholic Easter, the dynamics of the market may undergo significant changes.The German consumer price index for March is expected to be presented at 14:00 GMT +2. The monthly inflation rate is projected to rise from 0.4% to 0.5%, indicating a slowdown in the annual inflation rate from 2.5% to 2.2%, which brings it closer to the target level of the European Central Bank below 2%. The harmonized consumer price index with EU standards is also expected to decrease from 2.7% to 2.4%. Investors' attention will also be paid to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone, projected at 45.7 points, with the indicator for Germany remaining at 41.6 points and for the eurozone also at 45.7 points.Resistance levels: 1.0760, 1.0840.Support levels: 1.0700, 1.0570.NZD/USD: New Zealand Dollar hits lows since NovemberThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing a moderate decline, continuing its downward trend in both the short and medium term and updating the lows reached on November 17. At the moment, the price is approaching the level of 0.5945, testing its strength downwards, in anticipation of new catalysts of movement in the market.Among the key events that will attract investors' attention today are data on production orders in the United States for February. The indicator is expected to show an increase of 1.0% after a 3.6% drop in January. The market's attention is also focused on the speeches of representatives of the US Federal Reserve System, who can assess the latest business activity data, indicating an unexpected increase in the manufacturing index in March to 50.3 points, exceeding analysts' forecasts, which expected a level of 48.4 points.In New Zealand, data on the dairy product price index is expected to be published today at the Global Dairy Trade auction. The last auction showed a 2.8% decline in the index, which had a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar, emphasizing the importance of this sector for the country's economy.Resistance levels: 0.5975, 0.6000, 0.6030, 0.6049.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5920, 0.5885, 0.5858.GBP/USD: the probability of continued price decline remainsThe GBP/USD currency pair continues to show negative dynamics during the fourth week, being at the level of 1.2560.Today's trading session was marked by a partial recovery of the lost positions of the pound after the release of encouraging statistics from the UK. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector showed an increase from 47.5 to 50.3 points, reaching the growth zone for the first time since July last year. According to Nationwide Building Society, March was the month of a 1.6% increase in home values, indicating a revival in the real estate market. The report by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) also noted a 1.3% rise in prices in leading retail chains, well below the expected 2.0%. Such signs of economic recovery, combined with the dampening of inflationary pressures, may accelerate the process of adjusting monetary policy by the Bank of England, with an increased likelihood of an interest rate cut as early as May, ahead of the actions of the US Federal Reserve System. This creates long-term prerequisites for maintaining pressure on the exchange rate.Resistance levels: 1.2695, 1.2817, 1.2890.Support levels: 1.2451, 1.2390.USD/CHF: US dollar retains the advantageIn the context of the strengthening of the US dollar and multidirectional macroeconomic statistics from Switzerland, the USD/CHF currency pair showed a corrective movement, remaining at 0.9063.Retail sales in Switzerland for February, seasonally adjusted, showed a decrease of 0.2%. In particular, sales of food, beverages and tobacco products fell by 0.4%, while the non-food sector stagnated. In addition, it is expected that the business activity index from procure.ch Reflecting the mood among purchasing managers and serving as an important indicator of economic expectations, it may rise from 44.0 to 45.0 points, which is unlikely to support the Swiss franc in this trading dynamic.Resistance levels: 0.9090, 0.9210.Support levels: 0.9010, 0.8870.
Apr 02, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CHF, USD/CAD, platinum and crude oil on Friday, March 29
USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Platinum, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for USD/CHF, USD/CAD, platinum and crude oil on Friday, March 29 USD/CHF: Swiss Central Bank issues Quarterly Economic ReviewWith the strengthening of the US dollar, the USD/CHF currency pair is experiencing a correction, being at the level of 0.9026, and feels the influence of the latest decisions of the Swiss National Bank regarding monetary policy.In the latest quarterly report published by the bank, the main focus was on reducing the interest rate from 1.75% to 1.50% due to the stability of inflationary trends. Economic growth is expected to reach 1.0% in 2024, which corresponds to the current soft direction of monetary policy. Inflation fell to 1.2% in February at an annual level, well below the 2% target limit, and is expected to remain at a similar level throughout the year. The situation in the real estate market is putting pressure, which could potentially lead to a weakening of the Swiss franc in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 0.9070, 0.9210.Support levels: 0.8990, 0.8870.USD/CAD: GDP data showed economic growth in the USA and CanadaThe USD/CAD currency pair is at 1.3558, showing a recovery after a fall this week, when the lowest values since March 22 were reached. Market activity is slowing down as the Catholic Easter celebration approaches, leading to the closure of many trading platforms.Today, the US is expected to publish data on the price index of personal consumer spending, which is key for the Federal Reserve System in analyzing inflation and determining monetary policy. The index for February is projected to indicate moderate growth from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.5% year-on-year, with an unchanged base level of 2.8%. Additionally, information on personal income and expenses of Americans for February will be published and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will take place.Traders are also focused on the latest data on the GDP of Canada and the United States. The Canadian economy showed growth of 0.6% in January, exceeding forecasts and breaking away from a decline of 0.1% in the previous month. U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023 was adjusted upward from 3.2% to 3.4% on an annual basis.Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3580, 1.3613, 1.3650.Support levels: 1.3524, 1.3500, 1.3450, 1.3400.Platinum market analysisThe trend towards correction in metal prices remains, and this week platinum is holding above the 900.00 mark.A recent report by the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) highlighted the ongoing crisis in the industry. Analysts point out that due to low selling prices, platinum production is expected to decrease by 3.0% in 2024, which will lead to a decrease in total production to 5.489 million ounces - the lowest since 2013. Currently, more than a third of mining companies are operating at a loss, with an average loss per ounce estimated at $148. The WPIC report also highlights that South Africa is losing its attractiveness for investment in the platinum sector, which could lead to a decrease in production in this region by 1.0%.Resistance levels: 920.00, 954.00.Support levels: 900.00, 870.00.Crude Oil market analysisPrices for North American WTI Crude Oil are in the process of a sideways correction, settling at 82.69 amid growing geopolitical tensions.The activity of the Houthis from Yemen, carrying out attacks on international vessels in the Gulf of Aden, continues to create problems for maritime transport through the Red Sea, which puts pressure on global oil supplies. A positive impetus for the growth of oil prices is provided by macroeconomic dynamics: China increased oil imports by 5.1%, reaching 88.31 million tons from January to February, while domestic production in the country increased by 2.9% to 35.11 million tons, and refining volumes increased by 3.0% to 118.76 million tons.In the United States, oil reserves are also stabilizing. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil reserves increased by 9.337 million barrels this week compared with a previous decrease of 1.519 million barrels. A similar trend was confirmed by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), which reported an increase in inventories by 3.165 million barrels after a previous decrease of 1.952 million barrels.Resistance levels: 83.60, 87.00.Support levels: 81.40, 77.80.
Mar 29, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/TRY, USD/JPY and Silver for Thursday, March 28
EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/TRY, USD/JPY and Silver for Thursday, March 28 EUR/USD: Eurozone sentiment index signals improved prospectsThe EUR/USD currency pair follows the correction rate, being at 1.0823.Market activity has slowed in recent days due to traders' preference to avoid new deals amid the approaching Easter weekend, although economic data looks relatively favorable. For example, the consumer price index in Spain increased from 0.4% to 0.8% on a monthly basis in March and from 2.8% to 3.2% year-on-year. The index, harmonized with EU standards, showed an increase of 1.3% for the month, reaching the highest value since June 2022 and accelerating from 2.9% to 3.2% year-on-year. The EU consumer confidence index fell from -14.9 to -15.5 points, inflation expectations rose from 3.9 to 5.6 points, and the index of expectations in the service sector rose from 6.0 to 6.3 points. Market optimism is fueled by the anticipation of an imminent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. Today, the chairman of the Bank of Italy, Piero Cipollone, expressed confidence that inflation will fall to the target level of 2.0% by mid-2025, based on a slowdown in wage growth, which may be the basis for adapting monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.0870, 1.0980.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0700.USD/TRY: tourist growth in Turkey reached 22.68 in February%During the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY rate continues to show an upward trend on the short-term horizon, approaching the level of 32.3060 for a possible breakout, ahead of the publication of important statistics on consumer inflation in the United States.The Turkish lira is losing ground amid the current economic difficulties in the country. Recently, the Central Bank of Turkey increased the key rate by 500 basis points to 50%, which came as a surprise to analysts who expected a 250-point increase or stabilization of the rate. Inflation expectations remain stable on the part of the government: it is assumed that by the end of the year the inflation rate will reach 36%, and by 2025 it will decrease to 14%. The beginning of the tourist season contributes to a partial economic recovery: in February, the number of foreign tourists increased to 22.68%, reaching 2.3 million people, of whom 1.3 million visited Istanbul. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his intention to attract 60 million tourists this year, which should bring the country an income of $ 60 billion. Last year, 56.7 million people visited Turkey, which is 12% more than the previous year, bringing in revenue of 54.3 billion dollars, which is an increase of 16.9%.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.45000, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.USD/JPY: currency pair stabilizes near historical peaksThe USD/JPY currency pair is approaching the 151.35 mark, with the yen at its lowest levels since 1990. The discussion of the possibility of currency interventions by the Bank of Japan has again intensified among market participants, recalling last year's events when the exchange rate exceeded 145.00.The central bank's rejection of negative interest rates did not bring significant support to the national currency, as this decision was predictable. Analysts' attention is focused on the potential tightening of monetary policy, the prospects for which remain vague.Representatives of the Bank of Japan stressed their intention to continue applying a soft monetary policy and maintain the current volume of interventions in the government bond market. Naoki Tamura, a member of the Board of Governors of the Bank of Japan, expressed the view that it is necessary to consistently focus on tightening the monetary sphere and warned against the dangers of aggressively increasing the cost of lending in the event of too rapid inflation.Resistance levels: 151.50, 152.00, 152.50, 153.00.Support levels: 151.00, 150.50, 150.00, 149.50.Silver market analysisThe price of silver shows a moderate increase, approaching the indicator of 24.70 and continuing the growth that began a day earlier, after moving away from the minimum values on March 13 against the background of unclear expectations for easing the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System. A previous statement by the US central bank eased concerns about a slowdown in the pace of lower lending costs this year: markets are still anticipating three interest rate adjustments of 25 basis points each, with the first expected step in June.The final data on gross domestic product (GDP) will be in the focus of traders' attention today The United States for the fourth quarter of 2023 and statistics on applications for unemployment benefits. Economic growth is expected to remain at 3.2%, and the number of new applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended March 22 will increase from 210.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 24.71, 25.00, 25.35, 25.58.Support levels: 24.40, 24.20, 24.00, 23.83.
Mar 28, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Wednesday, March 27
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Wednesday, March 27 EUR/USD: Gfk Group reports an increase in consumer sentiment in GermanyThe EUR/USD currency pair shows an ambiguous movement, stabilizing near the 1.0830 indicator: on the previous day, the pair showed attempts at an active upward movement, continuing the positive dynamics of the beginning of the week and reaching peak values since March 22.Ahead of the day, investors are analyzing March data on economic sentiment in the euro area. It is expected that information will be provided on inflation in Spain, where growth is projected to 0.6% compared to the previous month and to 3.2% on an annual basis. In addition, representatives of the European Central Bank, including Piero Cipollone and Frank Elderson, are scheduled to speak.In Germany, the April results on the Gfk Group consumer climate index were recently published, which came out better than expected: the index rose from -28.8 to -27.4, exceeding forecasts of -27.9. This indicates a gradual improvement in consumer sentiment in Europe's largest economy, with a growing tendency for households to increase spending. Rolf Buerkle, an expert at Gfk Group, notes that higher incomes and stability in the labor market create a favorable basis for the revival of consumption, although the population still lacks optimism about future economic development.Resistance levels: 1.0838, 1.0863, 1.0900, 1.0930.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730.NZD/USD: the currency pair stabilizes near the key support level of 0.6000During the Asian session, the NZD/USD currency pair is approaching the 0.6000 level, checking it for the possibility of a downward breakout. Investors are being cautious, refraining from opening new deals against the background of the upcoming Easter holidays and waiting for the publication of the price index for personal consumption in the United States, scheduled for Friday at 14:30 GMT +2.This index is of key importance for the US Federal Reserve in assessing inflationary trends. It is expected that in February it will show an increase from 0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.5% on an annual basis. The underlying index is expected to slow down from 0.4% to 0.3%. On the same day, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, who may comment on future credit policy in light of the latest inflation data. Market monitoring of statements by other Fed representatives is also ongoing. For example, in a speech at Harvard, Lisa Cook of the Board of Governors stressed the need for caution in easing monetary policy, pointing to persistent inflation, especially in the real estate sector. Austan Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, in an interview with Yahoo Finance, noted that despite the general decline in the index, price pressure in the housing sector remains and this may contribute to a transition to a softer tone in regulation in the coming months.Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6030, 0.6049, 0.6076.Support levels: 0.5975, 0.5950, 0.5920, 0.5885.AUD/USD: consumer inflation in Australia remains at its peakWith the strengthening of the US dollar, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at the level of 0.6530.The February consumer price index in Australia rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with previous data and exceeding expectations at 3.3%. The stability of the index was supported by an increase in prices for insurance and financial services (+8.4%), tobacco products (+6.1%), housing (+4.6%) and food products (+3.6%). The most significant price reductions affected meat and seafood (-2.0%), entertainment and culture (-1.7%), as well as gas and other household energy sources (-1.4%).The US dollar showed stability after the previous decline, trading at 104.00 on the USDX index. The market reacted positively to data on basic orders for durable goods, which showed an increase of 0.5% in February after a decrease of 0.3% in the previous period, as well as an increase in orders for durable goods by 1.4% after a drop of 6.9%. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, based on a survey of 5.0 thousand American families and reflecting their assessment of the current and future economic climate, was fixed at 104.7 points against 104.8 points earlier, which had a temporary impact on the US currency.Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6630.Support levels: 0.6510, 0.6440.Crude Oil market analysisDuring Asian trade, WTI crude oil prices show a decline, continuing the trend of the previous day, when they rolled back from the levels reached on March 20, while heading towards testing the indicator of $ 80.60 per barrel downward.In the context of the debate on the future of energy, OPEC Secretary General Haissam al-Gais criticized proposals to completely abandon the use of hydrocarbons to preserve the climate, calling such ideas "erroneous and divorced from reality." He stressed that such a step would have a negative impact on many aspects of life, including transport, food production, medicines, medical devices and even the manufacture of equipment for renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar panels. He also noted that predictions of reaching a peak in oil consumption by 2030 are based on proposals for the complete elimination of fossil fuels. According to OPEC estimates, demand could reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, and possibly 120 million barrels. Haysam al-Gais points out that approximately $14 trillion in investments in the energy industry will be required to meet future supply needs by 2045.Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 83.00, 84.27.Support levels: 80.00, 79.07, 78.00, 77.00.
Mar 27, 2024 Read
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