Nikkei 225 Trading forecasts and signals

The Eurozone: labor market stability and monetary policy prospectsThe focus of European investors' attention is shifting to the unemployment rate data for January. The labor market in the Eurozone continues to show resilience, remaining at a record low of 6.3%. Analysts' expectations also point to the continuation of this value, which confirms the stability of employment in the region.Global economic developmentsAsia: unexpected increase in unemployment in JapanIn Japan, the unemployment rate in January turned out to be higher than expected, rising to 2.5% against the expected 2.4% and the December value of 2.4%. At the same time, the ratio of vacancies to applicants rose to 1.26 in November (1.25 was expected), which may indicate a gradual recovery in demand for labor.USA: ISM index signals slowdown in manufacturing sectorThe February ISM index in the manufacturing sector fell from 50.9 to 50.3 (50.7 was expected), indicating stagnation in the recovery of industrial production. Interestingly, the PMI was revised upward from 51.6 to 52.7, creating a contradictory signal for investors. An additional risk to inflation remains the continued rise in commodity prices, which may be exacerbated by the introduction of new tariffs.Eurozone: inflation continues to slow downIn February, annual HICP inflation dropped to 2.4% from 2.5% (expected 2.3%). Core inflation also turned out to be higher than expected, falling from 2.7% to 2.6% (2.5% was expected). The main factor of the decline is the slowdown in price growth in the service sector, caused by the weakening of economic activity in recent months and the effects of the base. These data reinforce expectations of an easing of the ECB's monetary policy, but the risks of wage growth remain, which may slow the decline in inflationary pressures. Core inflation is expected to fall below 2% by the summer as prices for goods and services weaken.Additionally, the manufacturing PMI was revised up from 47.3 to 47.6, which confirms expectations of a gradual recovery in the industrial sector. It is predicted that by the end of summer, the indicator will reach the level of 50, which will be an indicator of economic expansion.Sweden: manufacturing sector shows growthThe Swedish manufacturing PMI strengthened, rising from 53.0 to 53.5 due to increased production, orders and employment. The exception was the delivery time component, which decreased slightly, but overall the dynamics remains positive. The average figure for the last six months is 52.9, which confirms the steady growth of the industrial sector.Trade wars and geopolitical risksUS President Donald Trump has confirmed the introduction of 25% tariffs on all imported goods from Canada and Mexico from March 4. This increased fears in the markets and caused sharp fluctuations in financial assets. In addition, duties on Chinese goods were increased from 10% to 20%, which creates the risk of a new escalation of the trade conflict.Trump also announced an agreement with Taiwanese company TSMC to build five new semiconductor manufacturing plants in the United States worth $100 billion. These measures are aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese technology.In addition, the United States announced the suspension of military assistance to Ukraine in order to put pressure on President Zelensky in negotiations with Russia. This step strengthens Russia's position and forces European countries to reconsider their strategy of supporting Kiev. Against this background, the shares of European defense companies have shown a sharp increase, as investors are pricing in an increase in military spending in the region.Stock markets: reaction to political risksStock markets have demonstrated multidirectional dynamics. European indexes rose despite the risks of tariffs, while U.S. stocks were under pressure due to the uncertainty of Trump's trade policy. The main US indices closed lower: Dow -1.5%, S&P 500 -1.8%, Nasdaq -2.6%, Russell 2000 -2.8%.Interestingly, the Chinese stock market showed growth despite the introduction of 20% tariffs on exports. This can be explained by the revaluation of assets and the weak representation of Chinese companies in global investor portfolios.The largest technology companies (MAG 7) lost 3.1%, and the cryptocurrency market also came under pressure. This indicates a redistribution of capital from high-risk assets to more sustainable sectors.Bonds and foreign exchange markets: reaction to global changesIn debt markets, a sharp rise in expectations of increased military spending in Europe has triggered bond sales, especially at the far end of the yield curve. The yield of 30-year German securities increased by 10 bps, and 10-year – by 9 bps, exceeding the level of 2.5%. Additional pressure was exerted by an increase in the supply of debt instruments – Belgium placed 15-year bonds, the Netherlands issued new 10-year securities, and Austria offered investors bonds maturing in 2035 and 2053.In the foreign exchange market, the Swedish krona (SEK) strengthened, as the growth of European assets contributed to the demand for currencies with a high correlation with the region's economy. EUR/SEK dropped to 11.00. The EUR/USD pair strengthened by 1%, approaching the 1.05 mark. At the same time, the Canadian dollar came under pressure due to the US tariff policy.Oil prices declined after OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to stick to its planned production increase from April, while markets expected current quotas to remain in place. This has increased volatility in the commodity market and is putting pressure on oil-producing countries.ConclusionsFinancial markets continue to be highly dependent on political decisions. The main events are the escalation of the US trade wars with Canada, Mexico and China, the tightening of pressure on Ukraine and the prospects for a reduction in ECB rates. Markets are pricing in increased geopolitical risks, which supports the growth of European assets and puts pressure on high-price American stocks. In the coming weeks, investors will closely monitor the dynamics of inflation and the reaction of central banks to changes in global ...

Самое большое падение с 1987 годаАзиатские фондовые индексы не склонны к риску после сокращения числа рабочих мест в США в пятницу. Опасения по поводу рецессии усилились из-за смягчения денежно-кредитной политики ФРС.Индекс NIKKEI 225 пережил самое сильное падение за один день, потеряв за один день более 4400 пунктов. Последнее заседание ФРС прояснило позицию центрального банка, и снижение ставки в сентябре представляется весьма вероятным.Но, вопреки тому, что происходило в недавнем прошлом, когда рынок сплотился из-за мягкой политики ФРС, рынок осознал, что существует больший риск. Последние данные по ВВП свидетельствуют о том, что экономика ускоряется медленнее, и данные по занятости подтверждают это.Опасения по поводу рецессии в США охватывают рынок, и пятничная распродажа перекинулась на открытие торгов на этой неделе. Японские фондовые индексы также борются с ястребиным настроем Банка Японии, повышение на 0,25% ожидалось многими, но не полностью соответствовало прогнозам.В последнем квартале 2024 года ожидается дальнейшее повышение ставок. Большую роль в этом играют недавние опасения многих правительственных чиновников по поводу нежелательных последствий ослабления иены. Последнее повышение произошло после различных призывов защитить иену.Слабая иена негативно сказывается на частном потреблении и оказывает давление на цены на продовольствие и энергоносители. Мандат Банка Японии заключается в сдерживании инфляции, но, как мы видели, слабая иена также вызывает беспокойство у центрального банка.Технический взглядГрафик NIKKEI 225 показывает, что рынок находится в полностью медвежьем тренде. Все последние 3 свечи имеют большой дневной диапазон и длинные тела свечей, что свидетельствует о силе недавней распродажи.Сегодняшняя свеча нашла поддержку на предыдущем минимуме 30,469. Что соответствует падению в октябре 2023 года. Мы видим, что RSI сегодня достиг уровня сильной перепроданности 20,94.Индекс RSI ниже 30 также указывает на то, что рынок демонстрирует сильный импульс. Однако, если индекс RSI закроется выше 30, мы можем ожидать некоторой коррекции на рынке, учитывая уровни перепроданности. Рынок найдет следующее сопротивление на отметке 33 837.Если этот уровень будет пробит, рынок найдет следующую область сопротивления на отметке 35 ...

GBP/USD: the "Briton" may update the March 2020 lowThe British currency is trading in a moderate decline, moving away from trying to consolidate its success since the beginning of the trading week. GBP/USD reached 1.1450 with the prospect of a decline, getting closer to the March 2020 low updated at the beginning of the previous week.The US dollar gained positive momentum thanks to macroeconomic statistics released earlier. According to the data, the ISM Service Employment Index for August rose to 50.2 points from 49.1 points, while a correction to 48.2 had been expected, the ISM Service Business Activity for the same period rose to 56.9 points from the previous 56.7, while a decrease to 55.1 was expected. Primary service orders strengthened to 61.8 points from 59.9 points previously, contrary to a forecast of a weakening to 57.0 points. Economists noted the strength of the U.S. economy, allowing the national regulator to hold the hawks' course on tightening monetary parameters as part of its fight against record levels of inflation.Resistance levels: 1.1531, 1.1600, 1.1647, 1.1700.Support levels: 1.1442, 1.1380, 1.1300, 1.1250.Gold PricesPrices of the precious metal continue to develop a corrective decline within the framework of the "bearish" momentum that came earlier. Strong U.S. statistics released the day before offset attempts of the asset to consolidate near the local high of August 30.Investors' attention was focused around the release of "Beige Book" data announced the day before - the reporting of the U.S. regulator on a regular basis. Moreover, the Canadian Central Bank will announce its stance on monetary policy correction. According to preliminary estimates, the index is expected to strengthen by 0.75%, up to the target of 3.25%. ECB officials will hold a working meeting on Thursday to announce a decision on interest rate hike, which could rise by 50 basis points to the 1.00% target. In general, the demand for banking metal continues to decline, which is confirmed by the report of the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USA). Thus, the level of contracts on gold by speculators corrected to 117.7 thousand against 125.8 thousand, keeping trends in favor of sellers' deals. The advantage remains with the "bears" in the market, but the "bulls" continue to lose ground, changing the index to 21.925 thousand from 53.688 thousand by the sellers. During the current week buyers liquidated 0.615 deals, sellers - 2.989 thousand.Resistance levels: 1700.00, 1720.00, 1730.00, 1752.87.Support levels: 1688.58, 1675.00, 1660.15, 1644.36.Oil market reviewWithin the trading session of Asian region, the price of WTI oil is moving downward correction, being at the level of 85.00, having updated the local minimum of the second half of January.Because of the news background on the level of demand for the asset, markets ignored the statement of the OPEC +, which declared a firm position to abandon the increase in production by 100,000 barrels per day since early autumn, but even this value is not enough to significantly change trends in the market. It should be noted that the current level of oil production from the cartel is 3.0 million barrels less than the set target. Meanwhile, today investors expect the API (American Petroleum Institute) report on U.S. crude inventory levels for the last days of September 2. The previous swing showed a modest increase of 0.593mmbbl.Resistance levels: 86.95, 90.00, 91.93 and 93.97.Support levels: 85.00, 83.00, 81.00, 80.00.NI 225 index reviewThe Japanese stock market is trading under heavy pressure as global economic indicators fall and the Treasury securities market strengthens. As of today, the NI 225 index is testing the 27420.0 level.The release of weak data on household spending, which showed a 1.4% monthly drop, put more pressure on the index. At the same time, analysts admit the probability of changing the trend in the instrument as early as Thursday, as the publication of the national GDP data is expected. According to preliminary expectations, the outlook for the value has positive potential and is likely to strengthen by 0.7% for Q2, providing support for a 2.9% annualized GDP, with a 2.2% growth forecast.Support levels: 27240.0, 26000.0.Resistance levels: 27870.0, ...

EUR/USD: the "European" intends to expand the dynamicsAt the beginning of the trading week, the euro is making efforts to consolidate the upward dynamics that began last Friday and now shows a moderate increase against the US dollar, testing the 1.0087 indicator.The June macroeconomic data on the level of consumer prices in the eurozone states will be published soon, which is expected by most market participants, refraining from excessive activity at auctions. Economists predict inflation at the previous levels in the range of 8.6%, which has a small chance in reality, since it is worth taking into account the sharp increase in inflation to 5.8% in France and in Spain to 10.2%. However, if the forecasts are implemented, we can be sure of more "soft" rhetoric from regulators on the issue of increasing the key indicator approved on the eve of steps of 0.50% or 0.25%.Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9800.Resistance levels: 1.0197, 1.0370.USD/JPY: The Central Bank of Japan provokes the yen to another drawdownLast week for the USD /JPY currency pair ended with the continuation of upward dynamics, allowing the instrument to rise to the level of 139.38, after the strengthening of the US dollar by June inflation indicators.The Japanese currency continues to be inferior to the US dollar in the fight for investors' attention, because the Japanese regulator has not yet involved a set of measures to curtail economic incentives, which is already being practiced by American colleagues, although the former still consider the current situation with prices to be a short-term phenomenon. The authorities refrain from additional measures to support the national currency, despite the threats that its exchange rate weakness carries. Investors are waiting for a scheduled meeting of the members of the regulator, announced for this Thursday, during which officials will hold consultations on the yen, but economists do not expect any decisions from the department. It is likely that the Japanese yen will continue to be under pressure due to the regulator's decision to maintain the previous mark of -0.10%, leaving a soft monetary policy.Resistance levels: 139.06, 140.62, 142.18.Support levels: 137.50, 136.00.USD/CHF: the development of lateral dynamics is recordedThe USD/CHF instrument moved to sideways trading against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar, being at the 0.9760 mark.The statistics on import volumes published the day before reflected the June growth of 0.3% against the previous month and the addition of 6.9% of the producer value index, which reached the target level of 109.8 points compared to the same period in 2021. The real estate market has not shown unambiguous dynamics. Thus, the cost of housing construction for the population increased by 0.1% compared to last year, but the construction of buildings in general sank by 0.4%, which is why the investment flow to the sector decreased by 0.1%.Support levels: 0.9699, 0.9529.Resistance levels: 0.9819, 1.0000.Overview of the NI 225 indexThe positions of the NI 225 stock index are moving in correction, holding in the area of 27160.00.The advantage of the Japanese stock market is held by the shares of a holding specializing in retail sales - Fast Retailing Co., Ltd., which provided positive dynamics in the financial report for Q3. According to the data, the fixed yield is 546.13 billion. The yen exceeded economists' expectations of 508.8 billion yen, which allowed the profitability of the stock to reach 890.55 yen – an absolute record in the entire history of observations, second only to the figure of 916.21 yen recorded in Q4 last year. According to preliminary expectations, by the end of this year, the management staff predicts to fix a total revenue of 2.25 trillion yen, and net profitability will amount to 250 billion yen, which will improve past data by 5.5% and 47%, respectively.Support levels: 26500.0, 25550.0.Resistance levels: 27470.0, ...

The market the day beforeThe session on June 28, the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 fell by 2.01% to 3,821 points, the Dow Jones lost 1.56%, the Nasdaq adjusted by 2.98%. 10 of the 11 sectors included in the broad market index showed a decline. The exception was the energy sector, which added 2.70%. Among the leaders of the fall were manufacturers of durable goods (-4.03%) and technology companies (-3.01%).Company newsAccording to analysts, QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM: +3.48%) may remain the main supplier of modem chips for Apple Inc (AAPL: -2.98%) in 2023.Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK-A: -1.32%) announced the purchase of 794.4 thousand more ordinary shares of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY: +4.77%).In the first quarter, the number of hotel bookings on the platforms Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM: +10.79%) outside China exceeded the pre-pandemic level.We expectBeijing and Shanghai reported no new cases of COVID-19 for the first time since February, which gives hope for the full opening of China's economy. In addition, some of the largest US banks have increased their plans for dividends and share buybacks after the Fed stress test. However, it seems that these positive factors are offset by the consumer confidence index released yesterday for the current month: the indicator fell to 98.7 against the expected value of 101 points. This is the lowest level since February 2021 and significantly less than 127.3 points in June a year ago. Additional pressure on the stock market was exerted by the statement of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, that the Fed may raise the rate at the July meeting by 75 bps. Also today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will make a speech. Perhaps the head of the American financial regulator will try to calm the market somewhat, which will allow investors to revise expectations about the prospects for US GDP in the direction of improvement: from the inevitability of a recession to a temporary slowdown in economic growth.The yield of ten- and two-year treasuries on the eve increased by 1 bps compared to the values on June 20, to 3.21% and 3.14%, respectively. The indicator for 30-year bonds reached 3.31%.Trading on June 29 at the sites of Southeast Asia ended in the red zone. Japan's Nikkei 225 declined by 0.91%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost by 1.88%, and China's CSI 300 dropped by 1.54%. EuroStoxx 50 has been adjusted by 0.87% since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are quoted at $117.98 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1817.5 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3810-3860 points.MacrostatisticsData on the dynamics of US GDP for the first quarter will be published today. It is expected to fall by 1.5% QoQ in accordance with the indicators observed a month earlier.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index dropped one point to 29.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 continues its correction within the downtrend. The RSI has approached the neutral level. The MACD signals the possible development of an upward ...

The market the day beforeThe session on June 7, the main American stock exchanges ended in the green zone. The S&P 500 rose 0.95% to 4160 points, the Dow Jones rose 0.80%, the Nasdaq added 0.94%. Energy companies (+3.14%) and industrial enterprises (+1.36%) looked better than the market. The outsiders were issuers from the cyclical consumer goods industry (-0.37%).Company newsKohl's Corporation (KSS: +8.24%) announced that it is negotiating the sale of the business to Franchise Group Holding, Inc (FRG: +4.78%).Target Corporation (TGT: -2.31%) lowered its own operating margin forecast in the second quarter to 2% from the previous 5.3%.Union Pacific Corporation (UNP: +1.59%) expects margin deterioration due to rising fuel prices and other costs.We expectThe focus of the market's attention is updated inflation data, which will be published on June 10. Consensus suggests that the overall figure will exceed 8% YoY for the third month in a row. In addition, on June 7, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen determined the level of inflation in the country as unacceptable. This forces investors to rethink the current levels of profitability of risk-free instruments and the attitude towards them. In particular, the yield of "long" US government bonds exceeded 3%. Against the background of declining bond prices, stocks showed growth during yesterday's session. However, investors' concerns about a possible slowdown in GDP growth are hindering a more active flow of capital to the equity market. In addition, market participants drew attention to Janet Yellen's admission that she was wrong when describing the price increase last year as "temporary".The yield of 10-year treasuries compared to yesterday's session increased by 3 bps, to 3%, two—year securities - by 2 bps, to 2.75%. The indicator for 30-year bonds reached 3.12%.Trading on June 7 on the sites of Southeast Asia ended mainly in the red zone. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 1.04%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.24%, and China's CSI 300 rose 0.97%. EuroStoxx 50 has not shown significant dynamics since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are quoted at $120.73 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1850.70 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4120-4170 points.MacrostatisticsNo significant macro statistics are expected to be published today.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index rose one point to 39.Technical pictureAfter breaking through the 4,100-point mark a week earlier, the S&P 500 is showing weakly positive dynamics. When crossing up 4200 points, the benchmark will be able to continue strengthening. The RSI remains near the neutral level. The MACD shows a weakening of the "bullish" momentum. The nearest support is still in the range of 4060-4100 ...

The market the day beforeThe session on May 26, the main American stock exchanges ended in the green zone. The S&P 500 rose 1.99% to close at 4,058 points. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones indexes gained 2.68% and 1.61%, respectively. 10 of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 closed in positive territory. Cyclical consumer goods manufacturers (+4.78%) and technology companies (+2.45%) looked better than the rest.Company newsDollar Tree's profit, revenue and margin (DLTR: +21.9%) for the first quarter exceeded consensus expectations, and forecast EPS and revenue for the full fiscal year were increased.Alibaba Group (BABA: +14.8%) reported the slowest quarterly revenue growth since anti-bullying restrictions in China came into effect. Revenue and EBITDA for the fourth fiscal quarter were able to exceed analysts' expectations, but the issuer refused to provide guidance for the full year.Elon Musk allocated an additional $6.25 billion to finance the acquisition of Twitter (TWTR: +6.4%), as a result of which the businessman's total liabilities reached $33.5 billion. It was also announced the expiration of margin loans secured by Tesla shares.We expectDuring the outgoing five-day period, a number of important macro indicators were published. The Bureau of Economic Analysis presented revised GDP growth data, which turned out to be worse than the predicted values. The primary data released two weeks earlier indicated a 1.4% drop in GDP in the first quarter. The downward revision mainly reflects a reduction in private investment in housing and inventory. The latter is largely caused by the compression of wholesale trade (mainly motor transport), as well as the deterioration of indicators in the mining industry, utilities and construction. However, this negative effect is partially offset by an increase in consumer spending. Despite indirect evidence of a decline in the attractiveness of the dollar against the background of released macro data, the DXY index showed positive dynamicsThe yields of two- and 10-year treasuries were 2.48% and 2.75%, respectively. The indicator for 30-year securities increased by 3 bps, to 2.99%.Trading on May 26 at the sites of Southeast Asia ended in the green zone. China's CSI 300 gained 0.21%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.72%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 remained unchanged. EuroStoxx 50 has been growing by 0.30% since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are quoted at $117 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,847 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4000-4100 points.MacrostatisticsThe dynamics of GDP for the first quarter was revised from -1.4% to -1.5% with a forecast of -1.3%. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was 210 thousand (consensus: 215 thousand; previous value: 218 thousand). The index of pending sales in the real estate market in April reached 99.3 (forecast: 101.7; previous value: 103.7).The price index of personal consumption expenditures for April is expected to be published today (forecast: 4.9%; previous value: 5.2%).Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index rose one point to 35.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 broke through the psychologically important 4,000 point mark and exited the descending channel that formed in early April. This is evidenced by the benchmark crossing the 20-day moving average. Now it is important for the index to rise above the 50-day moving average, located at 4,200 points. The MACD indicator also indicates a reversal of the "bearish" ...

The market the day beforeThe session on May 5, the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 immediately fell by 3.56% to 4,147 points, the Dow Jones lost 3.12%, the high-tech Nasdaq declined by 4.99%. All 11 sectors of the broad market index closed in the red. Issuers from the consumer goods industry (-5.81%), IT companies (-4.93%) and telecoms (-4.09%) looked worse than others.Company newsTesla (TSLA: -8.30%) plans to expand the production of electric cars in China. The new capacities will increase the production of Tesla cars in Shanghai by 450 thousand units per year, due to which it is possible to double the current volumes.Adjusted net profit of ConocoPhillips (COP: +7.93%) in the first quarter exceeded forecasts. The company reduced the debt and increased the variable part of the dividends.Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD: +1.26%) has published positive reports for the past quarter. The issuer has reduced its debt burden and increased its dividends.We expectOn May 5, the US Department of Energy announced plans to restore strategic crude oil reserves. In the fall, the United States will replenish reserves by 60 million barrels, as black gold prices are expected to be below current levels by September. However, since the beginning of the year, more than 43 million barrels have already been released, so it will be quite difficult to replenish reserves.The sixth package of EU sanctions implies an almost complete rejection of Russian oil imports within six months. As an exception, only Slovakia and Hungary are allowed to buy this raw material in Russia until the end of 2023. But these countries have already requested permission to extend this period for another two or three years in order to reduce the risks of an energy crisis, since the increase in fuel prices is the main reason for the acceleration of inflation in Europe.Following the results of the OPEC+ meeting, it was decided to stick to the previous plan, which assumes a moderate increase in oil production, despite the possible embargo on Russian oil. This ban could lead to even more significant price increases and supply disruptions. The main affected party in this case will be the EU countries, since Asian markets are still open to Moscow. Private refiners in China buy Russian oil at a big discount. India is ready to purchase raw materials at a price of less than $70 to compensate for the risks. In addition, Russia is interested in investing in a gas pipeline project to Morocco, Iran and Venezuela intend to develop cooperation in the field of energy carriers.The yields of five- and 10-year treasuries increased by 1 bps, to 3.02% and 3.06%, respectively. The indicator for 30-year securities also increased by 1 point, to 3.16%.Trading on May 5 on the sites of Southeast Asia ended in different directions. China's CSI 300 lost 2.52%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined by 3.73%, Japan's Nikkei 225 added 0.75%. EuroStoxx 50 has been adjusted by 1.04% since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are quoted at $110.3 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1881.6 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4100-4150 points.MacrostatisticsUnemployment data for April is expected to be published today. It is projected to decrease to 3.5% compared to 3.6% last time.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index remains at 45 points.Technical pictureOn May 5, the S&P 500 regained Wednesday's growth, returning to the support range of 4100-4150 points. The benchmark failed to overcome the resistance level of 4,300 points and continues to move to the lower border of the descending channel. The RSI remains below the neutral level. The MACD does not give signals for a ...

Indices for the investorNews reports often inform us about the growth and fall of stock market indices. Obviously, this is important, since it gets into prime-time news. However, what should this mean to the ordinary man in the street?Reference books tell us that "An index is a derived quantity ..." and behind the jumble of words they do not always give us an idea of the essence. School memories about "dividing something into something" generally set the right vector for reflection, but here it is critically important to understand what to divide into what and why. So, let's figure it out.Read more: Index NASDAQ 100 - history, advantages and what it depends onWhat is a stock market index in the financial world?Let's start from the beginning and consider the very first index that appeared in the world: this is the soaring Dow Jones Index. Its first version appeared back in 1884, and this index still exists today. The emergence of such a tool was associated with the need to assess the dynamics of industrial development in the United States. It was necessary to find some indicator that would help to assess whether production is growing or falling. How did you solve this problem?It's very simple: we took 12 of the largest industrial companies in the United States and calculated the average stock price for all. Then they did the same after some time. And again. And now several control points have already appeared and a graph has been built out of them, from which the trend was visible: in general, the prices of shares of the largest companies are growing or not. Since the growth of the share price is an indicator of investors' confidence in the industry, their desire to invest in it (and this is an opportunity for the industry itself to develop due to the inflow of investments), these calculations have become the main measure of industrial development. Therefore, the growth of the index means the development of the entire industrial sector, and the fall, respectively, indicates a crisis. The evaluation method proved to be viable, received the name of the authors-developers, and since 1896 the Dow Jones Index has been officially published.A lot has changed since then, including in the Dow Jones Index itself. There are Indices for different industries, for the economies of entire countries. And the indices themselves are now a little less straightforward - all sorts of correction factors are applied, dividends and a number of other factors are taken into account. However, the following principle remained unchanged: the index shows the average temperature of the development of an industry or a country.An interesting fact: from the very first version of the Dow Jones Index to the present day, General Electric was part of it.Read more: Nikkei 225 Index - history, calculation and the featuresThe Dow Jones index today is an indicator of the health of the US economy. It is calculated based on the value of the shares of the 30 largest companies. Another important index for assessing the US economy is the S&P 500, it is called the barometer of the American economy. It is calculated for 500 American companies that have the highest market price (capitalization).For Germany, the same index is DAX, for Japan - Nikkei 225. There are Indices for industries - for example, for energy, telecommunications, metals - they, in turn, show in the same way whether the industry is developing, stagnating or even in decline.Indices are the investor's loyal friendsFirstly, from the point of view of investments in the index itself: today there are tools in the financial system that allow you to earn on the growth of indices. And the indices are unique in this quality - they are always growing in the historical perspective. This is logical: civilization is developing, humanity is getting more and more benefits, and the index only reflects this process.And secondly, Indices help us evaluate the industry or economy of the country in which we want to invest in a security. The dynamics of the development of the industry or economy reflected in the index will help you assess the potential of a particular security: does it have the possibility of growth relative to the "average temperature" or is it worth waiting for a decline in quotations rather.Summing up, we note the main thing: indices are indicators of the development of industries and entire economies. Both governments and ordinary investors are guided by them. Therefore, when making a trading decision to purchase a particular security, it makes sense to look at the indices in order to assess the overall economic situation and understand the potential of the stock.Read more: S&P500 ...

The Nikkei 225 index (日経平均株価, totally sounds like Nikkei Heikin Kabuka, abbreviation 日経 225) — a key index of the Tokyo stock exchange TSE (東京証券取引所), including 225 companies in the country of the rising sun.The index is quite stable due to the presence of companies in the real sector, but it is under pressure from the Asian crisis and a decline in global consumption.Nikkei 225 exchange rate chart online - Price for today and for all time Nikkei 225, WeekWorking with the Nikkei 225 is convenient for traders investing in the real sector of the economy, especially in developing companies. A large volume of innovative research is able to bring a small office to the leaders of the market direction and bring multimillion dollars revenues. The convenience of work adds a connection with the Dow Jones calculus system.Read more: Dow Theory: Six basic principles of Technical analysisThe history of the Nikkei 225The creator of the Nikkei 225 index was the newspaper Nihon Keizai Shimbun, which added the heading "Value of companies" to the economic column on September 07, 1950. The starting date was chosen on May 16, 1949, 100 points were taken as the basis — it was on this day after World War II that the Tokyo Stock Exchange opened, and the Far Eastern Commission stopped collecting reparations from Japan on May 12.The development of stock trading in Japan went briskly, adding tens of percent per year. In 1975, there was a slight decline caused by the fuel crisis in the world, and an agreement was concluded between the Tokyo Stock Exchange and Dow Jones on the use of the American system of calculations. From 1975 to 1985, the full name of the index was the Nikkei Dow Jones Average.The maximum indicator of Nikkei 225 was in December 1989 – 38 957.44 points. To be fair, let's say that not only the development of the Japanese economy affected here, but also access to other markets. In 1986, Nikkei 225 futures trading began on the Singapore Stock Exchange, in 1988 - on the Osaka Securities Exchange, in 1990 - on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.While humanity was celebrating the New Year 1990, the Nikkei 225 index was flying down with the elegance of an iron. For nine years, while Japan showed an increase in industrial production, the index showed an increasing decline, reaching 7,054.98 in March 2009 - this is 81.9% less than 20 years earlier. In 2011, after the earthquake near Fukushima, it fell by 10% to 8,160.01.The Nikkei 225 index began its long-awaited revival in 2013, when the range was passed in five months 10 600 – 15 492 .At the beginning of 2021, the quotation was on its way to a historical maximum. And it happened – in February, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.7% and reached 30010.43 points. The index exceeded the mark of 30 thousand points for the first time in thirty years. This signals positive growth dynamics and economic recovery after the coronavirus pandemic.Read more: The DAX index – history of its creation, structure and featuresEarn on the Nikkei 225 indexIt doesn't take much time to make money on the index. The only difficulty for European residents will be at an inconvenient time of trading - almost at night. As a tool, we chose not just index futures, but a binary option for futures. It is this tool that will provide us with a fixed profit in a short time.Nikkei 225 calculationThe Japanese stock index in its formula completely copies the American Dow Jones. In the given formula:Nikkei 225 = ∑p / d∑p is the total value of 225 stocks included in the index;d is a floating divisor calculated constantly.Nikkei 225 =  ∑pt0 / d0 =  ∑pt1 /  d1The divider changes every time shares are issued, the free fleet increases or decreases, mergers, acquisitions and changes in the composition of participants. Thus, the capitalization of the index depends both on the change in the value of shares and on the composition of the divisor. In this formula:∑pt0 — the total value of the shares included in the index at the time 0;d0 is the divisor at time 0;∑pt1 — the total value of the shares included in the index at the time of 1;d1 is the divisor at time 1.The Nikkei 225 divisor, dated September 30, 2015, was 25,492, before that the adjustment took place a year earlier in September 2014, then the divisor was determined at 25,473. If we take into account that on January 21, 2016, the index dropped to 16,017.26, all 225 shares were worth 0.62 currency units in total.For this, in fact, the Nikkei 225 is being scolded: a small number of companies, the presence of "steam locomotives" and a bias towards the high-tech sector. Contrary to the economic storm that has swept Southeast Asia, the index participants change only once a year, and then - no more than six stocks at a time. But there are 35 "sub-indexes" and a TOPIX grouping.Interesting factsThe capitalization of the Nikkei 225 is more than 4.5 trillion US dollars, which is equal to 2/3 of the entire capitalization of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.The total volume of securities sales has approached the $ 7 trillion mark and, despite the passive mood of investors, is only increasing (due to bears).In addition to the traditional name Nikkei Heikin Kabuka, the English-language expression Nikkei Stock Average is present in business turnover.Features of the Nikkei 225 IndexThe Nikkei includes 225 of the country's largest companies, and the index is considered the best in the world in terms of diversification. There are 35 sectors in total, the most powerful of which (29 participants) is expected to be electricians and electronics. The chemical sector is developed - 18 companies, mechanical engineering - 16, there are 11 banks and nine car manufacturing companies.In the material about the Korean KOSPI index, there is an example of chaebols - industrial and financial conglomerates owned by the same family and operating under the same brand. The Japanese analogue is called zaibatsu, and within the same Nikkei 225, whole groups can be distinguished: Nippon is represented by 12 companies, Sumitomo and Mitsubishi by nine, Mitsui by six, Fuji by five.Another feature of the index is the large multidirectional movement of the participants' shares - this is due, as mentioned above, to serious research by each of the participants.As one of the factors of influence, we note the orientation of the Japanese country towards the export of goods produced in the country. The Japanese economy is mainly dependent on the level of exports to the United States of America. In this regard, the Nikkei 225 index is a kind of reflection of fluctuations in indices that include American companies, as well as changes in the US market.Advantages of the Nikkei 225 Indexa large number of companies in the real sector;calculations based on the authoritative Dow Jones methodology;he is able to recover quickly after crises;it is one of the five key indexes of the world;it has the second capitalization after the NYSE.Dependencies of the Nikkei 225 indexit is extremely dependent on China because of the location of assembly plants there;the crisis in Japan is affecting;has a direct competitor to TOPIX;It is traded at an inconvenient time for the USA and Europe.ConclusionWorking with the index will be of interest to traders who play down quotes, as well as those who risk linking business with high technology. Along with NASDAQ, Nikkei 225 has become a platform for the growth of a large number of hi-tech companies, investments in which have brought tens of thousands of percent.Read more: What is a quote - concept, features, scope of applicationHowever, given the concern of the Japanese stock market, it is worth being careful with the Nikkei ...