Forex analytical forecast for USD/CHF, gold, oil and cryptocurrencies for Tuesday, June 20

USD/CHF, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for USD/CHF, gold, oil and cryptocurrencies for Tuesday, June 20

USD/CHF: SECO shares Swiss GDP forecasts

The Swiss currency keeps trying to catch the initiative in the USD/CHF pair, being at 0.8970, but the upward dynamic is limited by the macroeconomic statistics.

Thus, the Swiss State Secretariat of Economic Affairs published an article on the national economic growth outlook, which said that if the current rate continued, gross domestic product could grow by 1.1% in 2023 and by 1.5% in 2024. The faster pace is constrained by high commodity prices in international trade, creating risks for the coming quarters. Experts report that consumer inflation will fall to 2.3% by the end of this year, which is outside the 1.5-2.0% range set by the Swiss National Bank, preventing the franc from becoming the dominant currency against the U.S. dollar at the end of the year.

  • Support levels: 0.8920 and 0.8820.
  • Resistance levels: 0.9020 and 0.9150.

Gold prices

The price of the precious metal is influenced by mixed market sentiment, and is now holding in the area of 1950.00. The asset showed a moderate decline the day before, but continues to develop a sideways trend in the short term.

Gold is experiencing negative factors amid a weak U.S. dollar, which is trying to regain ground on forecasts of a renewed upward correction of the key indicator from the Fed in the foreseeable future. At the end of the June meeting, the financial authorities decided to leave the value at the previous 5.25%, but giving a signal to the markets that the adjustment remains quite possible already at the July similar event. In their turn, economists note that the cost of borrowing is approaching its theoretical upper limit of 5.50-5.75%, which makes it impossible for the "American" to hope for further strengthening in the future.

  • Resistance levels: 1952.53, 1960.00, 1972.85, 1985.11.
  • Support levels: 1940.00, 1930.00, 1915.00, 1900.00.

Oil market review

During the APAC trading session, Brent crude oil quotations moved in mixed dynamics, holding positions at 75.85. "Black gold" found itself under pressure since Monday, moving away from the local maximum of June 8 due to the U.S. dollar correction, which got support from the prospects of another strengthening of the borrowing costs from the Fed next month, before the agency announced a break in the adjustment of monetary parameters in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the announced stimulus the day before.

The negative dynamics is intensified due to the news background from China, where the authorities recorded a decrease in the dynamics of economic indicators recovery. China leads in imports of energy commodity group and is able to influence the balance between supply and demand on the trading floors. Today, on June 20, the board of the People's Bank of China issued a statement to reduce the interest rate by 1.00% to the target of 3.55%, which has not happened since August of the previous year. The current inflation rate gives room for maneuver for the authority to make such moves, but market participants indicated that the news was not positive.

  • Resistance levels: 77.00, 78.78, 80.00, 81.00.
  • Support levels: 75.63, 74.00, 73.00, 72.00.

Cryptocurrency market overview

ETH quotes show a decline against the U.S. dollar, trading at 1727.00.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) maintains a heightened interest in the compliance of cryptocurrency companies, which keeps pressure on the position of the electronic asset. Recall, the day before the regulator filed a complaint in the courts against major exchanges Coinbase and Binance, pointing to the platforms' ability to trade banned tokens such as Solana, Cardano and Polygon to securities. JPMorgan Chase & Co. later reported that ETH was also included in the initial version of the list, increasing tensions between investors, but in time followed a statement from the US Congress that, wishing to protect market participants, lawmakers could designate ETH a "special category" of cryptoassets and not equate the instrument with securities.

  • Resistance levels: 1790.00, 1912.00.
  • Support levels: 1650.00, 1480.00.
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD for Monday, July 15, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD for Monday, July 15, 2024 EUR/USD: a drop in the consumer price index in the EU has been recordedThe EUR/USD pair is showing growth against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, with the current quote at 1.0895. The euro is expected to strengthen this week thanks to encouraging economic data.In particular, in France, the consumer price index increased by 0.1% in June compared to the previous month, slowing annual growth from 2.3% to 2.2%, while the harmonized index, which meets EU standards, decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%. In Spain, the indicator also adjusted, showing monthly growth of 0.4% and a decrease in annual inflation from 3.6% to 3.4%. The decrease in inflation in Germany confirms the slowdown in the overall inflation rate in the region, which will allow officials of the European Central Bank (ECB) to avoid a rush to adjust monetary policy and maintain current interest rates for the near future.Meanwhile, the US dollar is showing a weakening, with quotes at 103.80 on the USDX index. Recently, the University of Michigan reported a decrease in the consumer expectations index from 69.6 to 67.2 points and a deterioration in the consumer sentiment index from 68.2 to 66.0 points, while the indicator of current conditions also decreased from 65.9 to 64.1 points. This trend points to consumer expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. economy in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 1.0910, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0870, 1.0760.GBP/USD: pound is growing steadily, reaching the level of 1.2972 in a monthOver the past month, the GBP/USD pair has seen strengthening, maintaining at around 1.2972.Unlike the US Federal Reserve System, where the prospects for rate cuts are growing, the Bank of England shows a tendency to stabilize the cost of borrowing, which contributes to the strengthening of the pound. UK GDP growth in monthly terms amounted to 0.4%, exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase of 0.2%, and reached 1.4% year-on-year, ahead of forecasts at 1.2%. This supports the risks of renewed acceleration of inflation, forcing Bank of England officials to adhere to a cautious policy. At the moment, only a few board members, including Swati Dhingra, are in favor of stepping up action, while most, including Catherine Mann and Hugh Pill, are not yet ready to adjust policy. Consequently, analysts estimate the probability of a change in interest rates in August as unlikely so far, at the level of 50%.Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3183.Support levels: 1.2750, 1.2573, 1.2451.NZD/USD: New Zealand assessed the consequences of tight monetary policyDuring Asian trading, the NZD/USD pair fluctuates in the range of 0.6140–0.6075, approaching its lower limit. The market is closely monitoring the actions of the New Zealand monetary authorities in anticipation of new incentives for movement.Last week brought no changes in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which have remained at 5.50% since May 2023 — for the eighth time in a row. However, due to tight monetary policy, the inflation rate has been reduced, and it is expected that by the end of the year they will return to the target range from 1.0% to 3.0%. The easing of tension in the labor market indicates a more cautious approach by companies to hiring and an increase in the supply of labor. Also in June, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 47.2 to 41.1 points, and retail sales by electronic cards improved from -1.2% to -0.6% monthly and from -1.6% to -4.9% per annum. New data on inflation and the state of the labor market are expected in the coming weeks, which will have a significant impact on monetary decisions. In particular, this Friday at 00:45 GMT+2, the market will assess the quarterly dynamics of the consumer price index: a decrease from 0.6% to 4.0% per annum is expected, which may affect the RBNZ's decision to cut rates in August and weaken the New Zealand dollar. Analysts assume that the first rate cut of 25 basis points will occur in October, and the second is likely in November.Resistance levels: 0.6140, 0.6225, 0.6286.Support levels: 0.6075, 0.6010, 0.5981.USD/CAD: Canadian inflation data for June will be published soonThe USD/CAD pair is approaching the level of 1.3657, waiting for news from Canada that may affect the exchange rate.Tomorrow at 14:30 GMT+2, June inflation figures are expected, which will become key for the future monetary policy of the Bank of Canada. Analysts foresee a decrease in annual inflation from 2.9% to 2.6%, while the monthly index may accelerate from 0.1% to 0.3%. Core inflation is expected to fall from 1.8% in a month, and annual inflation from 0.6%, which may contribute to a transition to a more lenient policy. Such changes will reduce the cost of debt servicing, stimulating consumer and investment spending, which will contribute to economic recovery. Statistics on new homes launched in June will also be published, with a projected decrease from 264.5 thousand to 260.0 thousand, which may affect the value of the Canadian dollar.Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3480.Resistance levels: 1.3680, 1.3780.
Jul 15, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD for Friday, July 12, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD for Friday, July 12, 2024 EUR/USD: euro stabilizes at its local peaksThe EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous trading trends, being near the 1.0870 mark. On the previous day, the euro actively increased in value, updating the maximum values since June 7, but could not hold on to new heights, losing some of the acquired positions by the end of the day. By Friday morning, market activity had significantly decreased.Meanwhile, the latest data from Germany showed that the consumer price index in June remained at the level of 0.1% monthly increase and 2.2% annual growth, confirming the possibility of further interest rate adjustments by the European Central Bank (ECB). In this context, the results of a Reuters survey of leading economists indicate that the ECB may cut rates twice this year — in September and December. However, if inflation, especially in the services sector, stabilizes above the target level, the central bank may limit itself to one adjustment of its policy.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0964, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0863, 1.0844, 1.0820, 1.0800.GBP/USD: pound is growing on the back of good UK GDP dataDuring the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair stabilizes around the level of 1.2915, while not staying at the recently updated annual highs. This happened after the publication of inflation data, which reinforced expectations of a near-term reduction in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve. The consumer price index in June slowed to 3.0% per annum from 3.3%, falling short of the projected 3.1%, and the monthly dynamics decreased by 0.1% after stabilization in the previous month. Core inflation also declined, which, together with the latest labor market report indicating a downward revision in the number of jobs created in May, disappointed investors. In addition, the speech by the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, emphasized the need to assess the economic situation as a whole, which increases the chances of an interest rate cut in September. As a result, the markets expect two rate adjustments in 2024 of 25 basis points each.On the other hand, recent statistics from the UK showed GDP growth of 0.4% in May after stagnating in April, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The annual increase in industrial production was 0.4%, despite the previous fall of 0.7%, with a projected increase of 0.6%. The monthly figure was also in line with forecasts, accelerating by 0.2% after a 0.9% decline. Economic growth in the UK supports the risks of accelerating inflation and reduces the likelihood of an early reduction in the cost of borrowing by the Bank of England, especially given hints from members of its board about a possible continuation of current rates, including recent comments by Bank representative Catherine Mann and chief economist Hugh Pill about continued inflationary pressures, especially in the service sector, and significant wage growth, which makes a correction monetary policy is unlikely in the near future.Resistance levels: 1.2948, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100.Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2860, 1.2817, 1.2776.USD/CHF: annual inflation in the United States decreased to 3.0%The USD/CHF pair is at 0.8958, demonstrating a corrective decline against the background of the weakness of the US dollar and the stability of the Swiss franc caused by the lack of new macroeconomic data.Investors are analyzing the latest conversations between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and the Swiss head of the Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research Guy Parmelin. During the meeting, it was decided to deepen the free trade agreement, which became a key point in the context of trade restrictions caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. These restrictions have made it more difficult to export Swiss goods, and a new agreement to improve the terms of trade could significantly support the Swiss economy, given that China ranks third among its trading partners. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), last year's exports to China amounted to 40.6 billion francs, while imports amounted to 18.4 billion francs. The expansion of the trade agreement is expected to increase these volumes by at least 30%.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8930, 0.8840.USD/CAD: lower range heralds new lowsThe USD/CAD pair shows a slight decrease against the Canadian dollar, being at the level of 1.3620 in anticipation of new factors that could affect the exchange rate.Today, at 16:00 GMT+2, the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in the United States is expected to be published, projected at 68.5 points for July, which is slightly higher than the previous value of 68.2 points. Earlier at 14:30, investors will pay attention to data on production inflation for June, the expected growth of which will be from 2.2% to 2.3% per annum and from -0.2% to 0.1% monthly, while the basic producer price index excluding food and energy should rise from 2.3% to 2.5%. Yesterday's report on the consumer price index showed a slowdown from 3.3% to 3.0% per annum, which was below expectations of 3.1%, and the monthly change was 0.1% after stability in the previous month, contrary to forecasts of an increase of 0.1%. The base rate also decreased from 0.2% to 0.1% monthly and from 3.4% to 3.3% per annum. Given the declining dynamics of the labor market, the US Federal Reserve may reconsider its policy towards easing at the September meeting. In particular, recent data showed a decrease in initial applications for unemployment benefits from 239.0 thousand to 222.0 thousand, and repeated applications — from 1,856 million to 1,852 million, which is also lower than the expected 1,860 million.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3733.Support levels: 1.3614, 1.3588, 1.3550, 1.3524.
Jul 12, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, silver and crude oil for Thursday, July 11, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, silver and crude oil for Thursday, July 11, 2024 AUD/USD: the increase in the price range opens the way to new peaks for the bullsThe AUD/USD pair is showing noticeable growth, updating its maximum values since the beginning of the year as part of its upward trajectory on short- and ultra-short-term horizons: the currency pair is testing the 0.6760 level for possible overcoming, using the weakness of the US dollar, which is under pressure due to increasing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.The Australian dollar is influenced today by fresh macroeconomic statistics: the index of inflation expectations from the Melbourne Institute for July decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, and the total number of construction permits issued in May jumped from 1.9% to 5.5%, including an increase in permits for the construction of new homes from -3.0% to 2.1%. Despite these positive indicators, experts emphasize that the construction sector is still under the onslaught of high interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The full recovery of this sector is expected only after the transition to a more lenient monetary policy, which may not happen this year due to the incessant growth in consumer prices.Resistance levels: 0.6775, 0.6800, 0.6825, 0.6850.Support levels: 0.6750, 0.6725, 0.6700, 0.6679.USD/JPY: currency stabilizes at historical peaksThe USD/JPY pair is showing mixed trading, again checking the level of 161.70. The previous time, the currency instrument made attempts to take new heights, but the available incentives were not enough for rapid growth.Today's statistics from Japan showed that orders for engineering products increased by 10.8% year-on-year in May, significantly exceeding expectations of 7.2% and the previous increase of 0.7%. However, the monthly indicator decreased by 3.2%, which is worse than the previous value of -2.9% and initial estimates of 0.8%. Prices for corporate goods in June fell to 0.2% compared to a month earlier, against a forecast of 0.4%, but increased from 2.6% to 2.9% on an annual basis, which is in line with expectations. Against the background of a strong decline in the yen and rising prices for imported raw materials, investors' confidence in the possible imminent tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is strengthening. Sources of the Reuters news agency report that in the near future the regulator may adjust the forecasts of the country's economic growth, while confirming expectations of an increase in inflation to the target of 2.0%.Resistance levels: 162.00, 162.50, 163.00, 163.50.Support levels: 161.30, 160.80, 160.25, 159.92.Silver market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the silver exchange rate (XAG/USD) has been steadily rising, focusing on an uptrend after mixed results at the beginning of the week and approaching the 31.00 mark in anticipation of new incentives for further movement.Important data on inflation in the United States is expected to be published today at 14:30 GMT+2, which may have a significant impact on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. Analysts assume that the consumer price index in June will decrease to 3.1% per annum from the previous 3.3% and show a slight increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis after stabilization in May. Markets continue to expect one or two rate cuts by the end of 2024, with the first one likely to be announced as early as September. In his recent speech to the Senate, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted significant changes in the labor market, indicating its slowdown, and stressed the need to take into account the risks of changes in the cost of borrowing, focusing not only on inflation, but also on the general trends of the slowdown in the US economy. At the end of the week, investors' attention will focus on data on industrial inflation, where, according to forecasts, the index will increase from 2.2% to 2.3% per annum and rise from -0.2% to 0.1% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 31.15, 31.49, 32.00, 32.50.Support levels: 30.75, 30.50, 30.15, 29.84.Oil market analysisBrent Crude oil prices are showing moderate growth, continuing to rise after the publication of a report on a decrease in oil reserves in the United States, with the current trading level around $85.00 per barrel.According to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), the volume of reserves decreased by 1,923 million barrels after a previous decrease of 9.163 million barrels. A similar trend was shown by the report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), which recorded a decrease of 3.443 million barrels after a decrease of 12.157 million barrels in the previous period, which is in line with analysts' forecasts. The total reduction in reserves over the past two weeks has exceeded 15 million barrels, which pushes for the possibility of a new stage in the release of oil from US strategic reserves, as previously mentioned in the presidential administration.Resistance levels: 86.00, 89.90.Support levels: 84.00, 81.00.
Jul 11, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and AUD/USD for Tuesday, July 9, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and AUD/USD for Tuesday, July 9, 2024 EUR/USD: according to the head of the Central Bank of the Netherlands, the ECB will cut rates in SeptemberDuring the Asian trading session, the euro shows a slight increase against the US dollar, hovering around the 1.0830 mark ahead of important macroeconomic announcements this week. Traders are cautious in opening new positions, waiting for key economic statistics.The political instability caused by the results of parliamentary elections in European countries also contributes to the pressure on the euro. So, in France, after the second round of elections, the New Popular Front coalition won, while Marine Le Pen's far-right National Unification party took only third place, and the coalition of incumbent President Emmanuel Macron retained second place. According to experts, the French parliament remains divided, and the formation of a new government may face problems: recently acting Prime Minister Gabriel Attal resigned, but the president refused to accept it.Meanwhile, Claes Noth, head of the Dutch Central Bank, expressed the opinion that the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to cut interest rates this month, but the September meeting may be more flexible and allow for necessary adjustments. He stressed that the measures taken to control inflation are effective and the target of 2.0% will be achieved by the end of 2025. Nevertheless, the duration of the process of stabilization of inflation levels indicates a slow decline in the deposit rate from the current 3.75%, which still limits economic growth. Markets expect from one to two changes in the cost of borrowing this year and up to four changes over the next eighteen months, assuming that the deposit rate will remain above 3.00% in the second half of 2025.Resistance levels: 1.0844, 1.0863, 1.0900, 1.0930.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730.GBP/USD: the UK, with the new prime minister, is looking for ways to strengthen trade with the EUThe pound sterling is showing stagnation, having stabilized around the 1.2800 mark. The day before, it reached new highs since June 12, but by the end of the day, most of the acquired advantages were lost. The support for the currency was influenced by the outcome of the parliamentary elections, in which the Labor Party, which advocates reducing public spending, won for the first time in 14 years. However, this factor is beginning to lose its relevance.On Thursday, investors in the UK will focus on GDP data for May, which is expected to show economic growth from 0.0% to 0.2%. It is also expected that industrial production will increase by 0.6% year-on-year after the previous decrease of -0.4%, and monthly growth by 0.2% after a significant drop of 0.9%.Meanwhile, new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, while on a visit to Scotland, announced the intentions of the Labour Party to strengthen ties with the European Union to review trade agreements concluded by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson in 2020. However, according to experts from the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, these actions may have a limited impact on reducing government spending, which increased after Brexit. In addition, they note that 78% of Labour voters would support Britain's return to the EU.Resistance levels: 1.2817, 1.2860, 1.2900, 1.2963.Support levels: 1.2776, 1.2730, 1.2700, 1.2650.USD/CHF: SECO forecasts strengthening of consumer sentiment in SwitzerlandDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF exchange rate settled at 0.8983, influenced by the weakening of the US dollar and a less pronounced strengthening of the Swiss franc, which may receive support from upcoming data from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) this month.According to forecasts, in June, the consumer sentiment index will reach the level of -37.0 points, which is 3.0 points higher than a year ago. Sub-index indicators are also expected to improve, including expected economic development, financial situation and planning for significant purchases. Analyzing the trends of the consumer sentiment indicator, it can be noted that after a decline starting in July 2023, by autumn the indicator reached a minimum level of -53.0 points. However, SECO's current forecasts are much more positive and may contribute to the strengthening of the Swiss franc.Support levels: 0.8950, 0.8830.Resistance levels: 0.9020, 0.9160.AUD/USD: at Westpac Banking Corp. they do not rule out a rate cut in Australia in NovemberDuring the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD exchange rate is gaining momentum, stabilizing at 0.6742. The rise in quotations is supported by the latest inflation data, which may affect the postponement of monetary policy changes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), especially considering that such an option was considered at their last meeting in June.At the same time, experts from Westpac Banking Corp. It is assumed that a rate cut in November remains likely, as the central bank seeks to stimulate an increase in employment. Analysts expect rates to fall to 4.10% in November, to 3.85% by March and to 3.10% by next September. Nevertheless, if the fall in the consumer price index continues, and the labor market remains stable, this may push the RBA to take more drastic measures. On the other hand, today's data from the National Australia Bank (NAB) showed an increase in the business confidence index from -2.0 to 4.0 points, based on a survey of 350 companies. At the same time, Westpac's consumer sentiment indicator fell from 1.7% to -1.1%, highlighting the negative impact of high interest rates on the economy.Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6580.Resistance levels: 0.6760, 0.6870.
Jul 09, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and Oil for Monday, July 8, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and Oil for Monday, July 8, 2024 AUD/USD: the price tends to the upper limit of the "expanding pattern"Against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is experiencing an upward correction, trading at 0.6752, while the Australian dollar remains stable.In May, there was a decrease in the volume of loans for the purchase of housing in Australia by 1.7%, reaching 28.8 billion Australian dollars, which follows an increase of 4.8% in April and turned out to be 18.0% higher than a year earlier. Loans for the purchase of residential real estate decreased by 2.0% month-on-month to 18.1 billion, and by 12.2% year-on-year. Housing intended for investment fell in value by 1.3% to 10.7 billion Australian dollars, which is 29.5% higher than last year. Changes in the rates on fixed loans for individuals amounted to a decrease from 0.9% to -0.7%, and on loans for transport — up to 0.8%. Although the pace of slowdown is not in line with analysts' expectations, interest rates remain high.Resistance levels: 0.6770, 0.6850.Support levels: 0.6730, 0.6670.USD/CAD: consolidation of the exchange rate after a short period of growthDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CAD pair shows volatile trends, remaining at around 1.3640 after a recent moderate increase, which allowed the US currency to move away from its minimum values for May 20 against the background of recent macroeconomic data.In June, the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the United States decreased from 218.0 thousand (revised data from 272.0 thousand) to 206.0 thousand, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts at the level of 190.0 thousand. The average hourly earnings were adjusted from 4.1% to 3.9% year-on-year, and from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month, which helps to reduce inflationary pressure. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, contrary to market expectations. Meanwhile, investors' attention is focused on political events, including the debate between U.S. President Joe Biden and his opponent Donald Trump, as well as parliamentary elections in Europe, especially in France and the United Kingdom.In Canada, the employment indicator for June decreased by 1.4 thousand, which is a deviation from the previous month, when an increase of 26.7 thousand was recorded, despite expectations of maintaining positive dynamics at the level of 22.5 thousand. Average hourly earnings increased from 5.2% to 5.6%, putting pressure on inflation risk assessments. The unemployment rate increased from 6.2% to 6.4%, exceeding forecasts at 6.3%, while the Ivey business activity index improved from 52.0 to 62.5 points, ahead of analysts' expectations of 53.0 points.Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3733.Support levels: 1.3614, 1.3580, 1.3550, 1.3524.USD/JPY: the correction of the US dollar continues on the background of new data from JapanThe USD/JPY pair is experiencing a moderate decline, continuing the corrective trend that began last week after moving away from peak values around 162.00. Now the exchange rate is checking the level of 160.50 for a possible further decline, while traders evaluate fresh economic data from Japan and the latest employment report in the United States, released on Friday.Meanwhile, data on wage dynamics were published in Japan today: in May, this figure increased from 1.6% to 1.9%, falling short of the expected 2.1%. Lending volumes in the banking sector in June also showed an increase from 2.9% to 3.2%, exceeding forecasts at 3.1%. The index of assessment of the current situation according to Eco Watchers improved from 45.7 to 47.0 points in June, and expectations for the future increased from 46.3 to 47.9 points. At the same time, the consumer spending index in May decreased by 0.3% monthly, contrary to the forecast of 0.5% growth, and decreased by 1.8% per annum, which is significantly lower than the initial estimate of 0.2%. Analysts expect these indicators to recover in the near future, as companies will gradually increase salaries. In general, consumer activity in Japan remains at a low level, supporting the likelihood of maintaining the Bank of Japan's soft monetary policy.Resistance levels: 160.80, 161.30, 162.00, 162.50.Support levels: 160.25, 159.92, 159.30, 159.00.Oil market analysisPrices for the Brent Crude Oil brand are observed in a weak decreasing trend at 86.00, slowing down after last week's rise.According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories changed from 0.914 million barrels to -9.163 million barrels, and data from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA) shows a change from 3.591 million barrels to -12.157 million barrels, which helped support prices last week. This Monday's negative trends were formed against the background of the election of reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, a supporter of expanding the geography of oil supplies, to the post of president of Iran. Currently, Iran exports hydrocarbons to 17 regions of the world, while in recent years its production volume has increased from 2.2 million barrels per day to 3.57 million barrels, which allowed the country to take fourth place in OPEC.Resistance levels: 86.60, 90.00.Support levels: 85.50, 82.80.
Jul 08, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and Silver for Thursday, July 4, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and Silver for Thursday, July 4, 2024 EUR/USD: the sustainability of current growth is questionableThe EUR/USD pair, which maintains a long-term downward trend, is showing an uptrend this week, checking the value of 1.0803 at the Murray level [5/8].Weak US economic reports and minutes of the June meeting of the US Federal Reserve put the dollar under pressure. Employment data from ADP showed a slowdown in growth to 150,000 jobs, which was the lowest result since February. Weekly statistics also revealed an increase in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits to 238 thousand and an overall increase in recipients of state support to 1,858 million, which is the highest since March. These signs of a slowdown in the labor market reinforced expectations of easing the Fed's monetary policy, highlighted by the regulator's recognition of slowing economic activity and reducing inflationary pressure in recent minutes, and also noted a decrease in wage growth and lower prices for large enterprises.Despite this, the recent rise in EUR/USD may be short-lived, as the probability of an interest rate correction by the European Central Bank also increases. Recent data on inflation in the eurozone showed positive dynamics: the consumer price index adjusted from 2.6% to 2.5% year-on-year, the producer price index improved from -5.7% to -4.2%, and the composite business activity index fell from 52.2 to 50.9 points, which may push the ECB to a softer monetary policy at the upcoming September meeting.Resistance levels: 1.0803, 1.0864, 1.0945.Support levels: 1.0742, 1.0620, 1.0559.USD/CHF: stagnation of consumer prices in Switzerland in JuneThe USD/CHF pair is experiencing a technical correction this week, approaching an important psychological support mark at 0.9000. The pressure on the US currency is increasing due to the festive lull in investor activity in the United States, due to the celebration of Independence Day. At this time, traders are analyzing the latest macroeconomic data: the decline in the ISM index of business activity in the service sector in June from 53.8 to 48.8 points, which is significantly lower than the expected 52.5 points, was particularly worrying. Statistics from S&P Global also showed a slight change, from 55.1 points to 55.4 points, although no changes were expected. In addition, the volume of production orders decreased by 0.5% in May after an increase of 0.4% in the previous month.Tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2), the June report on the US labor market is expected to be published, which may have a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate policy. Forecasts suggest a reduction in the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector from 272.0 thousand to 190.0 thousand, a decrease in the average hourly wage from 4.1% to 3.9% per annum and from 0.4% to 0.3% monthly, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.0%. At the Sintra forum, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the regulator maintains a wait-and-see attitude regarding interest rate adjustments, while carefully assessing the risks between controlling inflation and a possible deterioration in the labor market. The Fed's official forecasts suggest a possible interest rate cut of 25 basis points by the end of the year to 5.10%, while experts predict one to two adjustments, possibly as early as September.Resistance levels: 0.9037, 0.9071, 0.9100, 0.9130.Support levels: 0.9000, 0.8964, 0.8935, 0.8900.USD/JPY: medium-term economic background undermines the yen's positionThe USD/JPY currency pair shows an upward trend in the long term: yesterday the maximum of the year was reached at 161.95, but today's trading showed a slight decrease. Pressure on the dollar was exerted by the latest employment data from ADP and the contents of the minutes of the June meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, where there was a minimal increase in employment since February — only 150,000 jobs, as well as recognition of the slowdown in economic recovery and weakening inflation processes, which may encourage the Fed to switch to a softer monetary policy in the fall.Nevertheless, the medium-term fundamental analysis still looks unfavorable for the Japanese yen. The Bank of Japan's interest rates remain significantly lower compared to other developed countries, and in light of Japan's current economic weakness, which showed a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter decline in GDP, the Bank of Japan has shown no desire to raise them. The business activity index fell to 49.7 points in June, indicating stagnation. In this context, although the Japanese government is ready for currency interventions, experts believe that at significant cost, the effect of such measures will be temporary, and the growth of the USD/JPY pair is likely to continue in the near future.Resistance levels: 162.50, 164.06, 165.62.Support levels: 159.37, 157.81, 156.25.Silver market analysisYesterday, silver prices rose by 3.3%, reaching the level of 30.49, following the publication of US GDP data for the second quarter and minutes of the last Fed meeting.US GDP grew by 1.5% in the second quarter, which was lower than the expected 1.7% and the previous figure of 1.7%, which was confirmed in the report of the Federal Reserve System. Most of the participants in the June meeting noted that economic growth in the United States is gradually slowing down. They expressed their readiness to respond to macroeconomic dynamics, including through easing monetary policy if necessary. Such prospects strengthened investors' expectations regarding a possible reduction in interest rates in September from 63.4% to 66.5% per day, which contributed to the weakening of the dollar and the growth of silver quotations to this level.Resistance levels: 30.71, 32.23.Support levels: 28.72, 27.55, 26.26.
Jul 04, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD for Wednesday, July 3, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD for Wednesday, July 3, 2024 EUR/USD: analysts expect new data on the producer price index in EuropeThe EUR/USD trading instrument shows ambiguous changes in value, stabilizing around the 1.0740 level. Trading volumes have decreased as market participants refrain from active actions on the eve of Independence Day celebrations in the United States on July 4. Investors are also awaiting data from the June US employment report, which may clarify possible Fed rate adjustments by the end of the year.In the Eurozone, data on producer price indices will be published, which will complement the already known indicators of consumer inflation. In June, the index slowed from 2.6% to 2.5% per annum and remained at the level of 0.2% monthly. The base index remains at 2.9% per annum, which is higher than the projected 2.8%, and decreased from 0.4% to 0.3% for the month. In this context, representatives of the European Central Bank are cautious in their statements. On the eve of the ECB head Christine Lagarde stressed that the agency needs more time to achieve a steady movement of the consumer price index to the target level of 2.0%, which indicates a slow easing of monetary policy. She also noted that the risks of recession have not yet passed, and the prospects for economic growth remain uncertain.Resistance levels: 1.0765, 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0842.Support levels: 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0665, 1.0630.GBP/USD: an uptrend amid comments from the head of the FedAt the end of June, the pound sterling stabilized at 1.2617 and began a steady recovery after Jerome Powell's statements about the future steps of US monetary policy. Despite the proximity of Independence Day celebrations in the United States, which traditionally reduces activity in the markets, new deals are being opened cautiously.The growth of GBP/USD is supported by the latest data on the real estate market. The Nationwide Building Society housing price index in June showed an increase of 0.2% for the month, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 0.0%, and increased the annual increase to 1.5% against 1.3% previously. An improvement in indicators may provoke an increase in inflation and prompt the Bank of England to reconsider the time frame for easing monetary policy. Currently, the key rate is held at 5.25%, and if it remains unchanged at the upcoming meeting on August 1, this will provide the British pound with an additional impetus to continue the upward trend.Resistance levels: 1.2875, 1.2963, 1.3133.Support levels: 1.2617, 1.2525, 1.2322.AUD/USD: RBA summed up the results of monetary policy actionsThe AUD/USD exchange rate has been showing stable movement within the boundaries of 0.6713–0.6591 for several months, being influenced by the expectation of new market incentives that could determine the direction of its further trend. Investors pay special attention to statements by financial authorities that can indicate the time frame for changes in current monetary policy.The May inflation data revealed a significant excess of forecasts: the monthly consumer price index jumped to 4.0% in annual terms, which is beyond the target range of 2.0–3.0%. Therefore, economists revised their expectations for an interest rate adjustment in August. Despite this, representatives of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) note the effectiveness of the current policy. Christopher Kent, assistant to the head of the RBA, stressed that high interest rates contributed to a slowdown in inflation and demand. However, he also pointed out that the share of mortgage payments in family incomes reached a record 10.0%. Since May 2022, rates have increased by 425 basis points and have not changed at the last five meetings of the RBA. The minutes of the last meeting reflected the weak dynamics of GDP, which indicates difficulties in industries sensitive to rate increases, such as retail and construction. Despite the moderate growth in consumption, other economic indicators showed a decline. There is also a slowdown in employment growth, approaching the growth of the working-age population, and wage dynamics have probably reached their peak.Resistance levels: 0.6713, 0.6775, 0.6835.Support levels: 0.6591, 0.6469, 0.6408.NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar expects factors to start correctionDuring the Asian session, the NZD/USD exchange rate shows volatility, hovering around the 0.6075 level in anticipation of new market incentives.The New Zealand dollar is under some pressure due to weak economic indicators from China, indicating a slowdown in the country's economic growth. This was especially evident when the Caixin services index fell from 54.0 to 51.2 points in June, significantly below expectations of 53.4 points. At the same time, despite forecasts, the indicator in the manufacturing sector increased slightly, reaching 51.8 points. It should also be noted changes in the consumer confidence index from ANZ Group Ltd., which fell to 83.0 points against the predicted 84.2 and the previous 84.9 points. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's business optimism index also showed a decrease — from 11.2 to 6.1 points, which reflects the impact of prolonged tight monetary policy on business. In addition, the correction of the business activity forecast from 11.8% to 12.2% also has an impact on the New Zealand dollar exchange rate.Resistance levels: 0.6085, 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6152.Support levels: 0.6068, 0.6047, 0.6030, 0.6000.
Jul 03, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD and USD/CHF for Monday, June 24
AUD/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD and USD/CHF for Monday, June 24 AUD/USD: prices tend to retreat from the upper limit of the expanding formationDuring the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is trying to regain lost positions after last week's fall, which did not allow it to strengthen at the highs of June 12, and is currently checking the level of 0.6640.Meanwhile, investors are analyzing the latest decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on monetary policy, during which the interest rate again remained at a 12-year peak of 4.35% — for the fifth time amid an unconvincing slowdown in inflation. In the first quarter, the consumer price index rose from 4.1% to 3.6% year-on-year and from 0.6% to 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, while forecasts were 3.4% and 0.8%, respectively. The head of the RBA, Michelle Bullock, confirmed that the management considered the increase in the cost of lending as a measure to stabilize the market situation, given the ongoing excess demand and increasing domestic price pressures both in the labor sector and beyond. In her opinion, although the inflation rate has decreased since last year, it is expected that it will return to the target range of 2.0–3.0% by the end of 2025. In addition, the employment rate increased by 377.0 thousand. on an annual basis, and the unemployment rate remains close to a 50-year low, in line with analytical forecasts, which indicates the restraining effect of the RBA's monetary policy on the economy.Support levels: 0.6610, 0.6540.Resistance levels: 0.6670, 0.6760.USD/JPY: the US dollar is stabilizing at its recent peaksThe USD/JPY currency pair shows volatile activity during the Asian trading session, holding near the 159.75 mark and highs since April 29. Then the intervention of the Bank of Japan led to a temporary retreat of the yen from record highs around 160.20, but the long-term effect of these measures turned out to be limited, and the market began to actively buy dollars again. Ahead of the expected Fed interest rate cut, the Japanese currency is likely to continue to remain under pressure due to the limited capacity of the local regulator to further tighten monetary policy.Recently published economic data from Japan showed mixed results: the national consumer price index rose from 2.5% to 2.8% in May, while the index excluding food and energy declined from 2.4% to 2.1%. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from Jibun Bank and S&P Global in June fell from 50.4 to 50.1 points, missing the expected 50.6 points. On June 28, data for June on consumer inflation in Tokyo and May statistics on industrial production and unemployment will be published. Production is projected to increase by 2.0% after falling by 0.9% in the previous month, and the unemployment rate will remain stable at 2.6%.Resistance levels: 159.92, 160.21, 160.80, 161.30.Support levels: 159.30, 159.00, 158.43, 157.95.NZD/USD: changes in business activity adjusted expectations for Fed ratesThe NZD/USD currency pair shows mixed trading results at 0.6116, being influenced by the stable positions of the US dollar. The strengthening of the dollar is due to high interest rates in the United States and the release of the latest economic data: the manufacturing sector index from S&P Global increased from 51.3 to 51.7 points, exceeding forecasts of 51.0 points, while in the service sector the index increased from 54.8 to 55.1 points, ahead of expectations of 53.7 points. It is also worth noting a 0.7% drop in sales in the secondary housing market in May after a 1.9% decrease a month earlier, with a slowdown in sales dynamics from 4.14 million to 4.11 million, which is close to forecasts of 4.10 million.The New Zealand dollar received minimal support from data on export growth in May from $ 6.31 billion to $ 7.16 billion, as well as an increase in imports from $ 6.32 billion to $ 6.95 billion, while reducing the trade deficit from -10.05 billion to -10.22 billion dollars. An important event was the meeting of New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Lacson with Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Li Qiang, where they discussed expanding cooperation in the fields of digital, green economy and creative industries, as well as promoting regional economic partnership, which is expected to contribute to improving the economic performance of both countries.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6152, 0.6175, 0.6200.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6082, 0.6047, 0.6030.USD/CHF: the Swiss national bank failed to strengthen the position of the francAfter the recent meeting of the Swiss National Bank on monetary policy, the USD/CHF pair moved to 0.8940, aiming to reach 0.9005.At the meeting held on Thursday, June 20, the bank lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, while the market expected the rate to remain at 1.50%. This rate cut brought it to the expected end point of the current monetary policy easing cycle, which, according to the bank, will amount to 1.0% year-on-year. Officials noted that their decision was dictated by a decrease in inflation in May to 1.2% per annum, although the overall index rose to 1.4% due to higher prices for rent, tourist services and petroleum products, mainly due to higher prices for domestic services. The latest forecasts of the bank's economists are now similar to the estimates made in March: average annual inflation is expected to be 1.3% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026. Interest rates are expected to remain at 1.25%, however, if inflation accelerates, the bank may tighten monetary policy again, as stated in the official message.Resistance levels: 0.9005, 0.9150.Support levels: 0.8880, 0.8715.
Jun 24, 2024 Read
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