EURUSD
The euro collapsed on Friday's nonfarm, updating, moreover, the local minimum. It is very possible that the bears will be hindered by oversold conditions, as well as the appearance of divergences. But the advantage of the first move is now on the side of the sellers (see the red arrow).
At the same time, it is also impossible to exclude the scenario of an upward reversal – the descending trend line is located too close, which, accordingly, can be relatively easily broken, which would cause a market reaction in the form of triggered bearish stops.
But, even in the case of such a scenario (the black arrow on the chart), it is unlikely that the pair will be able to recover higher than the resistance of 1.1846-1.1879 in one week.
Thus, the tactics of trading this week should be careful: confirmation of the decline can be used for calm work down, but at the first signs of a reversal, you will need to be ready to change your “plate”.
GBPUSD
The British pound did not move down too far after it received a rebound down from the psychological resistance of 1.4000. It would have been possible to interpret this as a weakness of sellers, if not for Friday's fall on the American news.
In this context, the descending wave looks like it has not realized its full potential. As soon as the quotes are fixed below the round level of 1.3900, we can expect a failure of another 100-140 points-first to the support in the zone of 1.3781-1.3795, and then to the demand area of 1.3668-1.3730.
There is no serious alternative to such a plan yet, unless, of course, something extraordinary happens at a fundamental level.
Thus, the optimal tactic here is to continue selling the pound in the expectation of working out to any of the above goals.
USDJPY
The technical upward correction was slightly higher than we expected earlier. However, the growth that the pair experienced on Friday at the time of the publication of the NFP statistics by the States did not even break the downward structure.
This preserves both the downward nature of the medium-term trend and the positional advantage of sellers, who can again attack the dollar in the direction of the support zone 109.173-109.427.
This support zone looks very difficult, so it is still difficult to consider the breakdown below. In addition, with the development of a downward wave, we can get a slightly paradoxical inverse correlation with the euro-dollar, so we dare to bet on an upward rebound.
Thus, the first half of the week we are working down to the support of 109.173-109.427. The second half we are buying off the pair in the expectation that the market will return to the psychological limit of 110.000, and higher - to the zone of 110.271-110.480.
USDCHF
The upward correction of the pair is approaching a very strong confluence of levels – in the 0.9192-0.9221 zone, medium-term resistance and an inclined pivot will be tested, which has already twice provided a downward reversal of the market.
From practice, it is in such zones that colossal limit bouncing volumes are placed, which will provide sellers with another rebound down. Plus, the bulls will probably not be too stubborn, having such a clear barrier in front of them, and will prefer to fix a profit (which, in fact, is equal to opening a reverse position).
Candles for Friday and Monday look impressive, so it is psychologically difficult to bet on a downward turn. But, another scenario here can be considered only post-factum, when the bulls both break through the resistance of 0.9221, and gain a foothold above it. And this, most likely, is only a matter of next week (if at all it is real).
Thus, in the horizon of the current week, we consider an increase in the area of 0.9200-0.9221, and a subsequent downward reversal. Accordingly, you can try to collect the remnants of the upward movement, and then immediately turn over into shorts, and keep them already "until victory” (or at least to the minimum logical goal in the support zone of 0.9074-0.9081).
Based on the fact that there is an option to turn up, the risks should be limited to stop orders above 0.9230, which, in any case, will make the Risk ratio/The profit is acceptable.
XAUUSD
Gold experienced a real cataclysm when, having opened Friday at the level of $ 1800 per ounce, it was already below the 1700.00 mark on Monday evening.
By the evening of the first day of the week, the bulls won back about $25-30, which, most likely, was due to the fixation of a very good and fast profit by the sellers. The bearish structure of the market is now confirmed, and the presence of a new local minimum in it quite allows for corrections in the direction of the pivot zone 1759.04-1769.19 (red trajectory).
But at any moment there may be a continuation of the fall, and this time, the quote will collapse already in the area of 1650.00 and 1600.00.
Therefore, the tactics of working here are only sales, but you may need to be patient in order to get better entry points and not fall under unnecessary drawdowns. The optimal sale zone that is currently being viewed is PPZ 1759.04-1769.19.
WTI
Oil has fully confirmed our scenario of a downward reversal through the "Head-and-Shoulders" pattern, which has been tracked in this branch for more than one week. The bears have very dynamically drawn the "right shoulder” and now the asset has slightly stopped falling in the zone of very strong support 64.289-65.068. In the event of a breakdown of this zone, the market will not have strong levels at a distance of almost $ 4 per barrel, therefore, in the medium and long term, we can expect the price in the zones 60.595-61.540 and the psychologically important round level 60.0000.
As part of the correction, the quotes may well roll back to the area of 70.200-70.255, from where we would again expect fierce sales – the fall has just begun, and we have been preparing it for too long for the bulls to manage with the little blood that they have managed at this moment.
Thus, as in the case of gold – only sales.