Yesterday, the yields of ten-year US Treasury securities rose by about 4 bps to 1.67% per annum. Today they are declining and are about 1.64% per annum. US stock indexes closed mixed yesterday – the S&P500 rose 0.17%, the Dow Jones added 0.55%, and the NASDAQ lost 0.50%.
On Tuesday, the US and EU published November business activity indices from Markit. In the EU, both the PMI and the index for the service sector unexpectedly moved to growth. Nevertheless, the components of the indices indicated a record increase in both costs and selling prices, which indicates an increasing price pressure. The data on the November Markit PMI indices in the US turned out to be slightly worse – the manufacturing index rose by 0.7 p to 59.1 p, fully coinciding with the Bloomberg consensus forecast, but the index for the services sector fell by 1.7 p to 57.0 p. against the expected growth to 59 p . Despite recent reports of a certain improvement in the situation on the supply side, the PMI indices indicated an increase in costs to new highs. As a result, against the background of high demand, manufacturers continued to shift costs to consumers, and the component of selling prices remained at record levels last month. Yesterday's data increased the likelihood of further acceleration of inflation in the United States, which increased market fears of an imminent tightening of monetary policy.
Today promises to be a busy day - tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day in the United States, in connection with which most of the events were postponed to Wednesday. In particular, October data on durable goods orders, the Core PCE price index, which the Fed uses when making decisions, as well as weekly statistics on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be published in the United States today. Wednesday will be marked by the publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting, which, however, is unlikely to significantly surprise the market. Probably, the "minutes" will be devoted to the process of winding down the asset purchase program, and more important issues for the market with the timing of the rate increase will not be disclosed. Now the latest data for November will be more fundamental for the prospects of the PREP – next week the market will evaluate labor statistics, and a week later inflation data will be released.
Yesterday, as reported, it was announced the beginning of the sale of oil from the reserves of the United States and a number of other countries. However, after such news, oil quotes moved to growth, and Brent crude futures immediately rose by 3.3% to $82.31/bbl at the end of the day. Probably, investors were afraid of more significant volumes of additional oil supply than was announced yesterday (70-80 million barrels. for several months). Today, Brent futures are growing by 0.10% and are trading around $82.4/bbl. The positive oil market is not added by the data published yesterday on stocks in the United States for the week from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Thus, they indicated an increase in oil reserves by 2.31 million barrels, while they were expected to decrease by 0.95 million barrels. Today, the market will evaluate official data from the US Department of Energy - if they also show an increase in reserves, then oil quotes may return to decline. Further dynamics in the oil market will largely depend on OPEC+ plans, but for now Brent futures have the potential to gain a foothold above $80/bbl.