The Ethereum hard fork "London" was launched on August 5. It is expected that this update will make ether (ETH) a deflationary asset, since a part of the coins is burned with each transaction. Etherchain data shows that approximately 2.6 ethers are burned every minute for 24 hours. Our traditional analysis of ETH/USD will show how this will affect the exchange rate of the second cryptocurrency in the world.
The price of ether soared above the upper resistance of $2,914. 63 and by the end of last week was $3,013. 63, which is 17.91% higher than at the close of the previous week.
At the same time, the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) began to turn up, and the relative strength index (RSI) moved into a positive zone, which indicates that everything is under the control of the "bulls". However, the "bears" are trying to return the price below the breakout level and trap aggressive "bulls", according to the technical analysis of ETH/USD. If they succeed, the ETH/USD rate may fall to the 20-week EMA.
A strong rebound from the 20-week EMA suggests that the bulls are accumulating strength on declines. Then, buyers can make another attempt to push the price above $2,914. 63 to the resistance zone of $3,192. 99. If successful, the ETH/USD rate may rise to $4,000.
In the opposite case, if the "bears" take the price below the 20-week EMA, the decline may reach critical support at the level of $1,699.54.
The price of ether soared above $3,000, which drove the RSI deep into the overbought zone. This means that in the short term, the rally was overheated.
Profit-taking by "bulls" and aggressive sales of "bears" returned the price below $3,000, which is a negative sign. Now the ETH/USD rate may fall to the 20-day EMA.
A strong rebound from the 20-day EMA will mean that traders will continue to buy on declines. Then they will try to push the price above the upper resistance again and resume the uptrend.
On the other hand, a break down of the 20-day EMA will indicate a weakening of the "bullish" momentum. In this case, the ETH/USD exchange rate will remain in the range from $1,700 to $3,000 for at least a few more days.
What will be the ETH/USD exchange rate this week
Ether broke above the psychological resistance at the level of $3,000, but the "bulls" have not yet been able to strengthen. This indicates a shortage of buyers at higher levels. If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to push the pair above $3,000 and start a new uptrend.
Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA will indicate a weakening of the "bullish" momentum. This can lead to a drop to the 50-day simple moving average.