The market the day before
The session on April 26, the main American stock exchanges ended in the red zone. The S&P 500 declined by 2.81% to 4175 points, the Dow Jones fell by 2.38%, the Nasdaq adjusted by 3.95%. Issuers of the cyclical consumer goods sector (-4.99%) and technology companies (-3.71%) looked worse than the market. The only industry that showed growth was energy (+0.05%).
Company news
- Netflix Inc (NFLX: -5.48%) has announced a deal with Japanese studio Colorido to produce three full-length anime films.
- Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD: -7.77%) expanded its subscriber base by 2 million in the first quarter of this year.
- 3M Company's quarterly profit (MMM: -2.95%) decreased to $1.52 billion due to litigation and weakening demand for masks.
We expect
The consumer confidence index in April fell to 107.3 points against 107.6 in March, which was below the consensus forecast of 108 points. In the same period last year, the indicator was 117.5 points. Over the past month, consumer expectations have deteriorated quite a bit, despite inflationary pressures and the tense geopolitical situation in the world. However, the trading session on April 26 showed that investors are concerned about the prospects for profit growth of companies: this translated into a decline in the stock market with a simultaneous drop in US government bond yields. The quarterly results of major issuers released on April 26 (3M Company, General Electric, UPS, PepsiCo and Sherwin-Williams) in most cases turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts, which, however, could not fully offset the negative expectations of bidders regarding assets characterized by a high level of risk.
The yield of 10-year treasuries stopped at 2.77%, which is 5 bps below the level of April 25. The yield of "two-year-olds" decreased by 9 bps, to 2.55%, the indicator for 30-year securities was 2.86%.
- Trading on April 26 at the sites of Southeast Asia ended mainly in the green zone. China's CSI 300 rose by 2.94%, Japan's Nikkei 225 declined by 1.17%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.06%. EuroStoxx 50 has been rising by 0.29% since the opening of the session.
- Brent crude futures are quoted at $104.99 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1901.40 per troy ounce.
In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4130-4180 points.
Macrostatistics
No significant macro statistics are expected to be published today.
Sentiment Index
The market sentiment index fell by 2 points to 42.
Technical picture
The S&P 500 dropped below the support level in the range of 4200-4250 points. This may lead to the development of further corrective movement within the descending channel, which also does not contradict the signals of the MACD indicator.
In sight
On April 27, the report for the first quarter will be presented by PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL). The consensus forecast assumes revenue growth of the largest online payment system by 6.1% YoY, to $6.4 billion, and a decrease in EPS by 27.8% yoy, to $0.88. The value of PYPL shares has fallen by 71% from the highs of 2021 due to a slowdown in revenue growth and a deterioration in the forecast for the expansion of the user base. In 2020 and 2021, the company's revenue increased by 21% and 18%, respectively. This year, it is projected to grow in the range of 15-17% due to the pressure on the income of the separation from eBay and high inflation, which negatively affects consumer spending. At the same time, excluding eBay sales, PayPal shows higher growth rates. The termination of cooperation with this platform will be compensated by a partnership with Amazon, which will also accelerate the monetization of the Venmo application. At the same time, the company maintains a low debt burden and increases free cash flow, which creates opportunities for long-term growth. The current PYPL P/E score has dropped to a historic low of 24x, it is noticeably lower than that of the leading companies in the sector. However, the attractiveness of PayPal shares will be determined by the pace of business growth in the face of increased competition.