Daily forecast for January 14, 2022: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold & Cryptocurrencies

Euro/DollarThe single European currency fell against the US dollar to the level of 1.1125. The pair was within the range of 1.1220 -1.1125 for the duration of trading. However, at the end of the US session, the dollar failed to turn sharply, which indicates the predominance of short positions in the market.The yield of United States Treasury bonds has seen a significant rise to the level of 1.925%.European currencies were seriously affected after the start of the military operation in Ukraine, which affected the increased volatility in the market.Investors are increasingly turning to defensive assets, including the dollar, which has risen significantly in a few days.The war in the East, in addition to the ruble and hryvnia, hit the Hungarian, Swedish and Polish currencies, which lost more than 1%. At the moment, traders are preparing for the consequences associated with the tightening of EU sanctions against Russia.Geopolitical tension is not the only thing that worries investors. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will raise the rate at the March meeting.The expectation is growing that the Central Bank will immediately increase the rate by 50 basis points against the background of a rapid increase in consumer prices.The University of Michigan is expected to publish the inflation rate in the country today.Pound/DollarIn the pound/dollar pair, there is a consolidation at the support level of 1.3358, which shows a strong depreciation of the exchange rate. Traders are in no hurry to buy the currency, expecting a reversal from the weekly low.Meanwhile, the yield of British bonds has risen to February peaks, to the level of 1.4435%.The disturbing news of recent days has a strong impact on the dynamics of trading. The ruble fell to its lowest level since 2016 after Putin's introduction of troops into Ukraine. This led to a halt in trading on the Moscow exchanges.The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has made an attempt to stabilize the financial market by increasing the daily volume of American currency offered through swap operations with banks to $ 5 billion.Today, the exchange rate may react to the consumer expectations index, as well as to the personal expenses index.GoldAt the auction on Thursday, gold showed negative dynamics and an attempt to make a reversal against the recent correction. For two months in a row, market participants have been actively buying up bank metal against the backdrop of rapidly growing inflation and the rapid spread of a new strain of coronavirus “omicron".Against the background of the military operation in Ukraine and the tightening of sanctions against the Russian Federation, there was a “collapse” of Russian stocks on Thursday. The indices of the Moscow Stock Exchange and RTS have reached the minimum of the last few years. Prices of most of the largest companies fell by 52.5%.Yesterday, there was a decline in US stock indices, as well as a sharp decrease in the value of airline and bank securities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.36%, the Standard & Poor's 500 fell by 1.94%.Russia's military operation in Ukraine will lead to an even greater weakening of the global economy, which has already suffered from the consequences of the global pandemic. Economists note that European countries will suffer the greatest losses.CryptocurrenciesBTC showed a reversal from the $36335 resistance line, which may be due to the beginning of profit-taking after purchases in the American session. The cost of bitcoin per day decreased by 10%.Thursday's results showed the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market in the amount of 1.62 trillion US dollars. On Wednesday, there was a figure of 1.68. The growth in US bond yields negatively affected the dynamics of trading.The media reports on the arrest of the organizers of a financial pyramid in the Chinese province. Law enforcement agencies confiscated more than $5.4 million from fraudsters.The Ripple UnionPay Community application was promoted through social networks, where users were offered a monetary reward for attracting investors. New participants only had to purchase tokens and replenish the balance.

Euro/DollarAt the beginning of the week, the euro/dollar exchange rate dropped to a significant support level around 1.1275. There is an attempt by the currency pair to fix itself within a lower trading range. This trend may indicate that market participants are ready for active purchases of the US currency against the background of the expectation of the release of industrial indicators. Meanwhile, the euro showed a weakening due to the contradictory statistics of the Eurozone.The yield of ten-year US Treasury bonds shows a strengthening at 1.5855%.In the European session, the dollar and other relatively stable currencies showed stability. Risky ones needed support against the background of alarming news signals from Eastern Europe and a rapidly growing inflation indicator.On Monday, there was a strengthening of the US currency against the yen, Swiss franc, etc. After another rise in US Treasury bond yields, stocks recovered some of the recent large-scale losses. This situation was influenced, among other things, by the information that patients with omicron carry the virus in a mild form.Today, the euro/dollar exchange rate may react to the release of the consolidated GDP of Europe, as well as the indicator of the economic sentiment of the Eurozone and Germany from ZEW. The data is better than the forecast will have a positive impact on the euro, causing a new wave of strengthening.Pound/DollarThe pound/dollar exchange rate continues to adhere to the weekly range, anchored near its boundary value at 1.3538. After confident sales, the currency pair had an attempt to make a reversal and fix itself in a higher trading framework. In case of further growth, the first target is 1.3573.There is a rapid growth in the yield of ten-year British bonds. At the moment, the indicator has reached 1.5855%.Meanwhile, the media reports that the average income level of the population in Britain in 2022 may decrease by 2%, taking into account the current inflation rate. And this is the maximum pace since the beginning of the calculations in 1990.According to the forecasts of the Bank of England, inflation in the country may reach a record peak of 7% this spring. It is worth recalling that the regulator has already raised the interest rate twice in order to "soften" price pressure. This year, it is also expected to increase the salaries of Britons by 3.75%.The situation with inflation is similar in the American economy. However, compared to the UK, the US recovered faster after another outbreak of COVID-19. The country's GDP reached pre-pandemic indicators already in the second quarter of 2021. Meanwhile, in England, it was possible to return to the previous figures only in November.On Tuesday, the pound will be sensitive to UK economic statistics. The market focuses on the number of applications for unemployment benefits, the unemployment rate for December and labor productivity.GoldOn Monday, gold continued to grow, reaching the level of $1,871 per ounce. It can be seen that the banking metal is in an overbought state, and there is also a tendency to achieve a higher trading framework.Trading Monday ended with a fall in the US stock market, due to negative dynamics from the sectors of healthcare, finance, oil and gas. The Dow Jones fell by 0.49%, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.38%.On Monday, according to media reports, there is a strong drop in stock markets. Experts predict a weaker opening, and oil traders allow prices to move sideways - $100 per barrel. Assets such as government bonds and the Swiss franc are receiving increased attention from investors.The VIX indicator, which allows you to determine the general mood in the market, increased to 32 points, which is the maximum since the end of last month.While the DAX indicator, reflecting the dynamics of the shares of the largest German companies, rose to 39 points, for the first time since November 2020.CryptocurrenciesBitcoin was able to break through an important resistance level in the area of $42456. In case of further growth, digital gold will face the prospect of reaching the next $45,000 mark.According to the results of Monday, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market amounted to 1.94 trillion dollars against Sunday's figures - 1.85. The build-up of long positions by market participants will affect the further growth of BTC.According to media reports, crypto investor Anthony Welch from the UK has acquired his own Lataro Island, located between Fiji and Australia. After the purchase, the land plot was named Satoshi. Anthony plans to build a "smart city" with multi-storey residential buildings and offices on 300 hectares of land, where all interested holders of digital assets will live. The crypto investor has been living there for more than 12 years with his partner in the expectation that 21 thousand cryptocurrency supporters from all over the world will soon join them.In the second half of the week, there will be an increase in activity in the financial markets. The US dollar may react to the publication of retail sales, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve index of manufacturing activity, the PPI index, the NY Empire State index of manufacturing activity. The strengthening of the dollar may negatively affect digital currencies.

Euro/DollarThe euro rose against the dollar to the level of 1.1423. During the day, there was a versatile trading dynamics. The closing of long positions on the euro by market participants probably occurred against the background of the expectation of important economic statistics.In the yield of multi-year US Treasury bonds, there is a slight increase to the level of 1.949%.Meanwhile, the US currency strengthened slightly in the European session. This was influenced by the expectation this Thursday of the publication of US inflation data, as well as new measures from the Federal Reserve.According to media reports, the recovery of the dollar after an active sell-off was influenced by the employment report in the United States, where it was announced that the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector increased to 467 thousand. This news also strengthens the expectation of a rate hike in March.On Wednesday, attention is focused on the German trade balance, as well as the mortgage market index in the United States, the volume of wholesale sales and Michel Bowman's speech.The publication of the general and basic consumer price index, changes in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, inflation indicators from the University of Michigan is expected.Pound/DollarDuring the trading Tuesday, the pound/dollar exchange rate held at 1.3549. Strengthening at this level prevented the currency pair from reaching resistance in the area of 1.3573, in case of a breakdown of which the prospect of reaching the next level of 1.3622 opens.There is a significant strengthening in the yield of ten-year British bonds at the level of 1.4950%.The pound continues to grow on the background of the latest news. According to Halifax, residential property prices reached a record high in the UK in January. The cost of an average house has risen to 276.7 thousand pounds, which is equal to 374.4 thousand US dollars.Over the year, housing prices in the kingdom increased by 9.7% and, according to Nationwide Building Society, this is the maximum jump in the last 17 years. While since December, the indicator has increased by only 0.3%.The pound/dollar pair is sensitive to news signals from the United States. On Thursday, the publication of the balance of house prices from RICS and a speech by Andrew Bailey, the head of the Bank of England, is expected.GoldGold shows moderate growth, and technically an ascending channel has formed on the market. However, there is no way out of the important resistance level in the area of 1830.47 yet. The support at the level of $ 1809.49 per ounce restrains the banking metal from the decline.The Dow Jones index rose by 0.59%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.41%.On Tuesday, the US currency showed a small but steady rise, restraining the euro. Meanwhile, the expectation of US inflation data increases concerns about the imminent increase in interest rates.Last week, the single European currency rose by 2.7% after another ECB statement. However, the euro failed to break through the resistance around $ 1.1483, which led to a decline to $ 1.1413.Thanks to the active growth of yields on 5- and 10-year treasury bonds, the dollar rose 0.32% against the yen.Impressive reports from the US labor market, published last week, reinforced expectations for the release of an inflation indicator on Thursday. Analysts predict the maximum figure for 40 years – 7.3%.CryptocurrenciesBTC strengthened and fixed in the trading range of 45714 - 42456 dollars. In case of confident sales, there will be a prospect of reaching support in the area of $ 42456. The fact that the digital currency has moved away from last week's levels can already be considered a positive signal.According to the results of Tuesday, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market amounted to 1.99 trillion dollars against Monday's figures - 1.91. On the part of market participants, there is an increase in long positions.The news background has a positive effect on the crypto market. The media reports that on Tuesday on the NASDAQ stock exchange, an exchange-traded fund from Valkyrie Investments with shares of mining companies took part in the auction. It is worth noting that 80% of the fund's assets consist of securities of issuers with about 50% of the profit from bitcoin mining. Valkyrie intends to invest the other 20% in firms that store most of their assets in BTC.At the end of last year, several bitcoin futures ETFs were launched, including the Bitcoin Strategy ETF from ProShares, the BTF ticker from Valkyrie Investments and the XBTF ticker from VanEck.

Когда Shell опубликует прибыль за 4 квартал?Shell опубликует прибыль за четвертый квартал утром в четверг, 3 февраля.Предварительный просмотр заработка Shell за 4 кварталАналитики прогнозируют, что Shell сообщит о росте скорректированной прибыли до 6,27 миллиарда долларов в четвертом квартале, согласно консенсусным данным Bloomberg. Это будет больше, чем 4,13 миллиарда долларов в предыдущем квартале и 393 миллиона долларов, полученных годом ранее.Мы видим, что это будет обусловлено значительным улучшением доходов от интегрированного газа и его подразделения по добыче нефти, которое добывает нефть, причем оба получат выгоду от увеличения добычи по сравнению с прошлым кварталом в сочетании с более высокими ценами. Этому будет противостоять более слабая квартальная прибыль подразделений по производству нефтепродуктов и химикатов.Скорректированная прибыль ($, млн)3 квартал 2021 года4 квартал 2021E4 квартал 2020 годаИнтегрированный Газ1,6802,7011,109Апстрим1,6863,275(747)Нефтепродукты1,212880.9541- Переработка и торговля(3)-414.5(287)- Маркетинг1,215997.6828Химикаты395188.6381Дополнительные данные Reuters предполагают, что скорректированная Ebitda (которую Shell называет прибылью CCS) вырастет до 17,81 миллиарда долларов с 13,46 миллиарда долларов в третьем квартале и 7,91 миллиарда долларов годом ранее.Ожидается, что денежный поток от операций, включая оборотный капитал, в этом квартале составит 12,97 миллиарда долларов. Это было бы более чем вдвое больше, чем 6,28 миллиарда долларов, доставленных год назад, но меньше, чем 16,03 миллиарда долларов, забронированных в предыдущем квартале. Инвесторы всегда внимательно следят за этим, считая, что это лежит в основе уровня прибыли, которую Shell приносит акционерам, при этом от 20% до 30% операционного денежного потока возвращается инвесторам посредством распределения.Shell вернула акционерам 1 миллиард долларов путем обратного выкупа в третьем квартале и заявила, что намерена вернуть еще 1 миллиард долларов в четвертом. Примерно вернув около 1 миллиарда долларов в квартал в течение 2021 года, инвесторы надеются, что в 2022 году этот показатель ускорится, тем более что цены на нефть поднялись до новых максимумов, а Brent впервые с 2014 года превысила отметку в 90 долларов на этой неделе. Цены на газ также резко выросли с начала нового года.Важно отметить, что Shell уже обязалась вернуть инвесторам дополнительные 5,5 миллиарда долларов в начале 2022 года после завершения продажи своих активов в Пермском бассейне в США компании ConocoPhillips в начале декабря. Shell заявила, что планирует вернуть средства "в темпе".Аналитики Bloomberg считают, что прошлогоднее решение Shell объединить свои акции A и B в единую структуру акций, торги которой начались в конце января, будет выгодным, поскольку оно должно обеспечить больший пул акций для выкупа. Это решение было принято примерно в то же время, когда компания официально сменила свое название на Shell PLC с Royal Dutch Shell PLC.Куда дальше будет изменяться цена акций Shell?Акции Shell демонстрируют тенденцию к росту с 20 декабря и на прошлой неделе достигли самого высокого уровня за 23 месяца на уровне 1 945 пунктов, что послужило потолком для акций и привлекло продавцов обратно на рынок. Это подтверждается тем фактом, что RSI протестировал зону перекупленности на прошлой неделе, когда был достигнут этот уровень сопротивления.Если он сможет пробиться выше этого потолка, при этом RSI технически все еще остается бычьим, то начальной целью будет уровень поддержки, наблюдаемый в течение первой половины февраля 2020 года на уровне 1 963 пункта. Движение выше здесь было бы более значительным, поскольку оно обеспечивает постпандемические максимумы в 2141 п., которые действовали как уровень поддержки, наблюдавшийся в конце 2019 года.Если текущий потолок сохранится, мы можем увидеть, что акции Shell упадут до минимума 2022 года в 1733 пункта, прежде чем нацелиться на 50-дневную sma на уровне 1706 пунктов, а затем на 100-дневную на уровне 1678 пунктов. За последние 15 месяцев акции редко и лишь очень ненадолго опускались ниже 200-дневного sma, так что это должно оставаться максимальным минимумом для акций на уровне 1550 пунктов.

Euro/DollarThe euro fell against the dollar and stopped at 1.1410. The versatile dynamics of trading during the day caused an attempt to test the local resistance of 1.1427.There is a slight increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds to 1.793%.The media reports that even the European Central Bank will raise its key rate by the end of the year, which implies futures for short-term interest rates in Europe. The bank's management stubbornly refutes these forecasts.Last week, the euro and the pound reached two-month highs, and this week began mainly with a fall. The euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1427, the pound rose 0.1% to $1.3682. There is a possibility that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be asked to leave his post for periodic violations of the COVID-19 rules.The main topic of today is the ZEW index of economic sentiment in Germany and the European Union.Pound/DollarDuring the trading Tuesday, the pound/dollar exchange rate occupied low price levels. The currency pair was fixed in the area of the support level, at 1.3648.According to the results of the last European and American sessions, the dollar was in the leading positions. Breaking through the support of 1.3648 by the currency pair will open the prospect of reaching 1.3597.After a slight increase, the yield of ten-year UK bonds strengthened at the level of 1.1970%.According to media reports, the economic situation in the United States is not the most stable and will only worsen in the near future. Experts predict a decline in the growth of the American economy, starting from the first quarter of 2022. Inflation is also expected to rise against the background of the next wave of COVID-19. This situation will affect consumer demand, businesses will have to deal with the consequences of disruptions in work and production.It is expected to publish the average salary level, taking into account bonuses, information about unemployment and the volume of applications for benefits.GoldThis week, gold continues to decline and is in the trading range of 1830 - 1814 dollars per ounce.The average yield of the world's largest investment funds over the past year has not been able to exceed the S&P500 index.The media continue to persistently predict the tightening of the monetary policy of central banks. At the beginning of the week, the yield on euro zone government bonds rose against the background of tightening monetary policy and forecasts about how the US rate hike will affect Europe.There was an increase in the yield of ten-year German government bonds by two basis points, approaching the maximum level since May 2019.According to Morgan Stanley experts, the growth of the Chinese economy will decrease by 40 basis points in the first quarter of this year. Outbreaks of the new COVID-19 strain "omicron" are likely to lead to the introduction of lockdowns. This will significantly affect economic activity in the country.CryptocurrenciesBitcoin's breakdown of the key support at the level of $ 42450 activated sales in the framework of speculative trading. Today, the digital currency is trading in the range of 42450 - 40850 dollars.According to the results of Monday, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market amounted to 1.98 trillion US dollars. On Sunday there were figures - 2.06.The forecasts of experts and the media regarding the digital currency market are not the most optimistic. According to UBS analysts, the decline of the world's largest cryptocurrency is expected soon. The arguments in favor of bitcoin, as a means of hedging inflation, are losing force and are declining. In recent weeks, the digital currency has sharply lost ground amid preparations for an interest rate hike by the Fed.According to experts, the cryptocurrency still has a chance to recover. Europe was covered by a new wave of flu, the pace was faster than last year. There is a possibility of developing a double pandemic, with the addition of COVID-19.

The depreciation of the EUR/USD currency pair at the beginning of the week provoked a breakdown of the 1.12644 support zone, which indicates the caution of investors before the news. Positive EU statistics did not strengthen the European currency.US Treasury bonds are at a November low of 1.627%.The US currency was supported by comments from representatives of the US Federal Reserve, namely Christopher Waller and Richard Clarida. They talked about accelerating the reduction of incentives due to a steady recovery and rising inflation.Trading activity increased on Tuesday. The consolidated purchasing managers' index PMI in the EU reached 55.8 points in November, which is confirmed by Markit calculations. Preliminary data in October indicated 54.2 points. This indicator indicates changes in the economy and that the European currency is not turning against the dollar.Francois Villeroy de Galo, ECB representative, believes that there is no need to increase the volume of bond repurchases at the end of the PEPP term. This will be appropriate in the spring of the coming year.On Wednesday, the yield on 10-year US bonds was at 1.648%. Preliminary data from the US Department of Commerce indicate that by the end of the 3rd quarter, GDP grew by 2.1% over the year, and by the end of the 2nd quarter by 6.7%. Representatives of the department believe that the slowdown in consumer spending, the increase in the number of infected Covid-19, the next sanitary restrictions and the reduction of social payments also affected the slowdown in growth. Experts predicted GDP growth of 2.2% for the year following the results of the 3rd quarter.But this did not stop the strengthening of the dollar and the currency pair reached a November low of 1.1186.Coronavirus affected the markets on Friday. WHO representatives gathered for an emergency meeting to discuss the consequences of the Nu strain. It contains a spike protein, which modern COVID-19 vaccines are fighting. Because of this, the dollar reached the price levels of the beginning of the week, and the exchange rate of the currency pair was fixed at 1.1310.Investors are waiting for the statements of Jerome Powell, the head of the Fed, as well as the publication of the EU consumer price index, Canadian GDP for the 3rd quarter and the American consumer confidence index. It is planned to publish data on the American labor market, the Beige Book of the Federal Reserve PMI in the manufacturing sector.

Заседания центральных банков в Еврозоне, Австралии, Канаде, Малайзии и России будут в центре внимания на следующей неделе, и все внимание будет приковано к дебатам ЕЦБ о том, следует ли ему начать сокращать свою масштабную программу покупки активов PEPP на фоне более ярких перспектив экономических перспектив блока. В других местах ключевые данные, за которыми следует следить, включают цены производителей в США и вакансии; показатели занятости в Канаде; ежемесячный ВВП Великобритании и торговый баланс; данные по ВВП Японии и Еврозоны за 2 квартал; производственные заказы Германии; и данные по инфляции и внешней торговле Китая. Финансовые рынки в США и Канаде будут закрыты в понедельник в связи с празднованием Дня труда.В экономическом календаре США впереди спокойная неделя с ключевыми обновлениями, включая цены производителей, открытия рабочих мест, еженедельный отчет о претензиях, экономический оптимизм IBD/TIPP и окончательные данные по оптовым запасам. Цены производителей для конечного спроса, вероятно, выросли на 0,6 процента в августе, восьмой период роста затрат подряд, что может еще больше усилить опасения по поводу инфляционного давления. В других местах замечания должностных лиц Федеральной резервной системы Уильямса и Дейли будут тщательно изучены на предмет любых признаков того, когда центральный банк может начать сокращать свою поддержку экономики.В других странах Америки Банк Канады, вероятно, оставит процентные ставки на рекордно низком уровне, когда соберется в среду. Другие ключевые данные, за которыми следует следить, включают показатели занятости в Канаде и опрос Ivey PMI; уровень инфляции в Мексике, промышленное производство и валовые инвестиции в основной капитал; потребительские цены и розничная торговля в Бразилии; промышленное производство в Аргентине; и инфляция и торговый баланс в Чили.По ту сторону Атлантики экономический календарь Великобритании наполнен ключевыми обновлениями о ежемесячном ВВП, производстве в обрабатывающей промышленности, строительстве и внешней торговле. Экономика Великобритании, вероятно, выросла на 0,5 процента в июле, снизившись по сравнению с ростом на 1 процент в июне. Индекс цен на жилье в Галифаксе и индекс деловой активности в строительстве Markit также будут в центре внимания, поскольку инвесторы ожидают замедления строительной активности и роста цен на жилье в августе.В других странах Европы Европейский центральный банк, скорее всего, оставит денежно-кредитную политику без изменений в четверг, после того как в июле объявил о новом руководстве по процентным ставкам. Тем не менее, инвесторы будут следить за обсуждением программы покупки активов PEPP после того, как более ястребиные члены ЕЦБ, включая австрийца Роберта Хольцмана и главу Бундесбанка Йенса Вайдмана, призвали банк сократить свои экстренные покупки облигаций.Что касается экономических данных, то будут доступны обновленные данные по ВВП еврозоны за второй квартал, а также индекс деловой активности в строительстве для блока и промышленное производство для Германии, Франции, Италии и Испании. Другими ключевыми публикациями являются производственные заказы Германии, моральный дух инвесторов, внешняя торговля и текущий счет; торговый баланс Франции; розничная торговля Италии; настроения потребителей Испании; уровень безработицы в Швейцарии; уровень инфляции в Нидерландах, Ирландии и России; и уровень безработицы в Турции, промышленное производство и розничные продажи. Кроме того, ожидается, что Центральный банк России повысит процентные ставки на 25 б.п., что является четвертым повышением ставки в этом году, в то время как Национальный банк Польши, скорее всего, оставит ставки без изменений.В Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе Китай опубликует данные по инфляции и данные о торговле, при этом прогнозы указывают на устойчивые темпы инфляции потребительских цен и цен производителей и значительный рост как экспорта, так и импорта. Ключевые данные Японии включают окончательные данные по ВВП за второй квартал, счету текущих операций, расходам домашних хозяйств, ведущим индексам и опросу Eco Watchers.Тем временем Резервный банк Австралии проведет свое заседание по денежно-кредитной политике во вторник, но никаких изменений не ожидается. Что касается экономических данных, то ключевые данные, за которыми следует следить в Австралии, включают индекс услуг Ai Group и окончательные данные о разрешениях на строительство. Другие важные события в регионе включают: решение по процентной ставке в Малайзии; темпы инфляции на Тайване, Таиланде и Филиппинах; и промышленное производство в Индии.В других странах Южная Африка опубликует обновленные данные по ВВП за второй квартал, деловой уверенности и объему производства в обрабатывающей промышленности.