EUR/NZD: rising unemployment in New Zealand weakens the New Zealand dollarDuring the morning session, the EUR/NZD pair is trading around 1.8000, which is 0.5% higher compared to the previous session. The growth of the euro is due to the improvement of economic indicators in the eurozone and the weakening of the New Zealand dollar against the background of weak employment data.There is a moderate improvement in the economic situation in the eurozone. The Sentix investor sentiment index rose to -12.8 points in November from -13.8 in October, indicating a slight recovery in confidence. However, the indicator turned out to be below the predicted level of -12.5 points, indicating the continued caution of investors. In Germany, the region's largest economy, the sentiment index also rose to -29.8 points from -31.5, reflecting a slight improvement in economic expectations. The industrial production index for September will be published in the eurozone today at 12:00 (GMT+2). Experts expect a decrease of 0.4% on a monthly basis after an increase of 0.6% in August.The economic situation in New Zealand remains tense. The unemployment rate increased to 4.8% in the third quarter from 4.6% in the second quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase to 5%. Employment decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter, which also exceeded the projected decrease of 0.4%. These data indicate a weakening of the labor market and may influence the decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand regarding monetary policy. In New Zealand, the ANZ consumer confidence index for November is expected to be published tomorrow at 02:00 (GMT+2). It is predicted that the index may decrease from 85.4 to 84.0 points, which will signal the growing concern of the population about the country's economic prospects.Resistance levels: 1.8050, 1.8100.Support levels: 1,7950, 1,7900.GBP/JPY: The Central Bank of Japan maintains a soft monetary policyDuring the morning session on November 8, the GBP/JPY pair was trading around 196.50, which is 0.3% higher compared to the previous session. The strengthening of the British pound is due to recent economic data and official statements.In the UK, the services Business Activity index (PMI) rose to 54.2 points in October from 53.6 in September, indicating continued growth in the sector. The consumer confidence index also improved, reaching -7 points compared to -9 in the previous month. At the last meeting, the Bank of England kept the interest rate at 5.25%, noting that inflation fell to 2.1% year-on-year, approaching the target level. The head of the Bank, Andrew Bailey, said that the current monetary policy contributes to sustainable economic growth.The economic situation in Japan remains stable. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in October amounted to 50.5 points, which indicates a slight increase. The unemployment rate remains at 2.5%. The Bank of Japan continues to adhere to a soft monetary policy, keeping the interest rate at -0.1%. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the Bank, noted that the current policy is aimed at stimulating economic growth and achieving the 2% inflation target. Data on orders for machinery and equipment for October is expected to be published tomorrow at 01:30 (GMT+2). A decrease of 0.3% is forecast compared to the previous month. Negative data may increase pressure on the yen, as a decrease in orders indicates a possible slowdown in industrial activity, which may support the Bank of Japan's position on soft monetary policy.Resistance levels: 197.00, 198.50.Support levels: 195.50, 194.00.USD/CAD: weak Ivey index puts pressure on the Canadian dollarDuring the morning session, the USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.3915, which is 0.2% higher compared to the previous session. The growth of the US dollar puts pressure on the Canadian dollar, which is influenced by weak macroeconomic statistics.In October, the Ivey composite business activity index, calculated on the basis of a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries, fell from 53.1 points to 52.0 points, the lowest since spring, excluding the August drop, and the indicator, excluding seasonal fluctuations, from 54.4 points to 52.2 points, interrupting the upward trend. A report from the labor market will be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2): experts assume that unemployment will increase from 6.5% to 6.6% against the background of changes in employment from 46.7 thousand to 27.9 thousand.The US dollar is strengthening amid expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The market expects the regulator to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% at the next meeting. In addition, US inflation data released last week showed an increase in the consumer price index (CPI) by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, which is higher than analysts' forecasts. Today, November 8, at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published. The indicator is expected to decrease from 210 thousand. up to 205 thousand, which may strengthen the position of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3920, 1.4050.Support levels: 1.3820, 1.3650.Silver market analysisAs of November 8, 2024, the price of silver (XAG/USD) is 24.50 US dollars per troy ounce, which is 0.8% higher compared to the previous trading session.In the United States, the consumer price index (CPI) for October was published, which showed an increase of 0.3% for the month and 3.2% year-on-year, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, confirming the stability of the labor market. GDP for the third quarter grew by 2.5% year-on-year. These data strengthen the dollar's position, but also support silver as a protective asset, as a moderate increase in inflation keeps demand for precious metals in an uncertain environment. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is expected to be released today at 15:30 (GMT+2). The indicator is projected at 72.5 points, which is higher than the previous value of 71.0 points. An improvement in consumer sentiment may support the demand for silver as a protective asset in a stable market.In Europe, the economy is showing signs of slowing down. Euro area GDP grew by 1.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, slightly below expectations. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 48.5 points, indicating a decrease in activity. The European Central Bank (ECB) has expressed concern about the slowdown in economic growth and its potential impact on global markets. In China, GDP increased by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, which supports interest in industrial metals, but the slowdown in the PMI to 50.2 indicates a potential limitation in demand for silver. On Monday, November 11, at 11:00 (GMT+2), data on industrial production in the euro area for September will be released. An increase of 0.2% is expected compared to the previous month. Positive data may boost industrial demand for silver.Resistance levels: 25.00, 25.50.Support levels: 24.00, ...
EUR/TRY: inflation in Turkey remains high, the lira is losing groundThe EUR/TRY pair is trading around 38.23 on the morning of September 25, showing an increase of 0.03% compared to the previous session. This is due to investors' expectations regarding the decisions of the European Central Bank and monetary policy in Turkey. The lira continues to be under pressure due to macroeconomic instability and high inflation in Turkey.The economic situation in Turkey remains difficult: inflation in the country slowed to 51.97% in August, but these are still high values that negatively affect consumer demand and overall economic activity. The Turkish Central Bank maintains a policy of tough rate hikes to combat inflation, which has led to an increase in the cost of borrowing to 30%. However, investors are still concerned about the prospects of a further slowdown in economic growth in the country.On the part of the eurozone, the continued weakening of economic activity is putting pressure on the euro. The business activity indices (PMI) for the eurozone showed values below 50 points (48.9), which indicates a decrease in activity in key sectors of the economy. Inflation also remains above target, which limits the European Central Bank's ability to quickly ease monetary policy.Resistance levels: 38.50, 38.75.Support levels: 37.85, 37.60.GBP/JPY: economic data from the UK and Japan are holding back growthThe GBP/JPY pair is trading at 183.75 on September 25, showing slight losses after a 2% increase in the previous three days. The current consolidation is related to expectations of important economic data from the UK and Japan. The pair declined by 0.12% compared to the last session, which is due to a correction after a recent rise.The economic situation in the UK remains ambiguous. The latest data on the labor market show a decrease in the number of vacancies, but the employment rate remains relatively stable. Inflation in the country is still above the target level of the Bank of England, which forces investors to take into account the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy. In the latest report on the consumer price index (CPI), inflation reached 6.7%, which supports expectations of further rate increases.In Japan, the market remains under pressure due to the slowdown in the economy. The index of business activity in the service sector (PMI) fell to 50.5 points, indicating stagnation. At the same time, the Bank of Japan maintains extremely low interest rates to stimulate the economy, which makes the yen weaker against the pound. In addition, the market is awaiting a report on the consumer price index in Japan, which may have a further impact on the country's monetary policy.Resistance levels: 184.20, 185.00.Support levels: 182.50, 181.80.AUD/NZD: New Zealand dollar weakens amid slowing domestic demandThe AUD/NZD pair was trading around 1.0890 on the morning of September 25, showing an increase of 0.17% compared to the previous trading session. This growth was supported by the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave interest rates at the current level, which strengthened the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the weakness of the New Zealand economy and the expected decline in export demand due to domestic economic difficulties are putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar.The Australian economy continues to receive support from Chinese incentives. In particular, China's recent measures to reduce the reserve rate for banks by 0.50% have freed up about $142 billion for lending, which has led to increased demand for Australian goods such as iron ore and coal. This had a positive impact on the AUD rate. Moreover, the RBA hinted that a rate cut is unlikely in the near future, despite the slowdown in economic growth.On the other hand, the New Zealand economy is facing a slowdown in growth. Inflation in the country is expected to remain high despite measures to contain it, which puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to take further action on rates. Moreover, the latest data on domestic demand in New Zealand also show a weakening, which contributes to the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.0910, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0820.Crude Oil market analysisAs of September 25, the price of WTI crude oil is trading at $81.46 per barrel, which shows a slight decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to market adjustments after a sharp rise in prices in previous weeks amid expectations of supply cuts and uncertainty amid OPEC+ actions.The economic situation in the United States and China continues to have a significant impact on world oil prices. In the United States, the latest publication of data on oil reserves showed an increase, which led to a decrease in expectations about the shortage of supply in the market. Meanwhile, in China, a slowdown in economic growth is holding back demand for oil, despite government incentives. China's recent measures to reduce bank reserves to stimulate lending, including in the industrial sector, may temporarily support demand for commodities.In addition, market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming data on the personal consumer spending index (PCE) in the United States, which may have an impact on market sentiment and the future dynamics of the dollar, which, in turn, may affect oil prices. A stronger dollar usually puts pressure on commodity markets, making oil more expensive for foreign buyers.Resistance levels: $82.50 and $84.00.Support levels: $80.00 and ...
EUR/USD: the stability of the dollar restrains the strengthening of the euroAs of August 19, 2024, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading near the level of 1.0905, showing weak dynamics against the background of conflicting economic data from the eurozone and the United States. The pair is under pressure, trying to overcome key resistance levels, but has not yet shown steady growth.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Recent data indicate a slowdown in economic growth in Germany and France, which raises concerns among investors. The eurozone's GDP is projected to grow by only 0.6% in 2024, which is lower than expected for the United States. The European Central Bank (ECB) is signaling a possible easing of monetary policy, which could lead to lower interest rates in the coming months. This pressure on the euro is due to the fact that inflation in the region is declining slowly, despite the targeted efforts of the central bank.On the other hand, the US economy is showing more steady growth. Although inflation is slowing, the labor market remains strong, which supports expectations for further tight policy by the Federal Reserve System (FRS). Despite the decline in GDP growth to 1.6%, the Fed still maintains its key rate at 5.25-5.50%, which makes the dollar more attractive to investors. This, in turn, puts pressure on the EUR/USD pair, limiting its growth opportunities.Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800.GBP/JPY: the pair is growing due to the stability of the pound and the weakness of the yenAs of August 19, 2024, the GBP/JPY currency pair is trading around the 188.50 mark, showing moderate strengthening. The pair is moving up after the publication of employment data in the UK and the continued weakness of the Japanese yen.The economic situation in the UK remains tense, although it shows some signs of stabilization. Recent data on the UK labor market showed a decrease in the unemployment rate, which caused cautious optimism among investors. At the same time, inflation in the country remained below forecasts, which may limit the Bank of England's ability to further raise interest rates. Nevertheless, the central bank continues to keep rates high to cope with inflationary risks, which supports the British pound.By contrast, the Japanese yen remains under pressure amid domestic economic problems. The Japanese economy is facing difficulties related to low domestic demand and a weak manufacturing sector. Despite the unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the beginning of the month, the yen continues to remain under pressure due to global uncertainty and economic weakness. This creates the prerequisites for further growth of the GBP/JPY pair.Resistance levels: 189.00, 190.50.Support levels: 187.50, 186.00.AUD/NZD: New Zealand dollar strengthens against the background of RBNZ's tough policyOn August 19, 2024, the AUD/NZD currency pair is trading at 1.1015, showing a moderate decline against the background of various economic factors in Australia and New Zealand. The pair is moving in a downtrend, which is associated with increased economic pressure on the Australian dollar.The economic situation in Australia remains tense. Recent inflation data show its growth above the expected level, which forces the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider further tightening of monetary policy. Despite this, weak domestic demand and low consumer confidence are putting pressure on the Australian dollar, limiting its potential for growth. Additionally, the slowdown in economic growth in China, which is Australia's key trading partner, also has a negative impact on AUD.On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar is strengthening thanks to the latest decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which kept the rate at 5.25% and expressed its intention to continue to maintain a tight monetary policy in the near future. Stable inflation and GDP growth indicators contribute to the strengthening of the NZD, making it more attractive to investors. The economic situation in New Zealand remains stable, despite the increase in the unemployment rate, which provides additional support to the New Zealand dollar.Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0980, 1.0930.Coffee market overviewAs of August 19, 2024, coffee prices continue to fluctuate in a volatile market, reaching $2.15 per pound of Arabica. This movement is linked to a number of key factors, including global climatic conditions and economic changes in coffee-producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam.The economic situation in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has a significant impact on prices. The strengthening of the Brazilian real against the US dollar, observed in recent months, is contributing to an increase in coffee prices, as Brazilian exporters prefer to hold stocks in anticipation of more favorable conditions. In addition, unstable weather, including droughts and extreme temperatures, continues to negatively affect crops, further limiting supply on the global market.On the other hand, the demand for coffee remains steady, especially in the regions of Asia and Europe, where the popularity of organic and certified coffees continues to grow. This trend is supported by changes in consumer preferences towards more environmentally friendly products, which encourages manufacturers to invest in sustainable development and certification.Resistance levels: $2.20, $2.30.Support levels: $2.10, ...
GBP/JPY: the yen weakened due to the soft policy of the Bank of JapanAs of August 13, 2024, the GBP/JPY currency pair is showing steady growth, trading near the level of 189.27, which is 0.80% higher compared to the previous day. This movement is driven by several key factors, including economic and political developments in the UK and Japan.The economic and political situation in the UK continues to have a significant impact on the pound sterling (GBP). Yesterday's comments from representatives of the Bank of England (BoE) indicate continuing concerns about inflation, which supports expectations of further interest rate hikes. Additionally, the latest data on the UK economy, including a slowdown in GDP growth, are worrying against the background of a possible slowdown in the economy, but at the same time stimulate the BoE's caution in making rate decisions. This creates pressure on the pound, but continued optimism about its future strength supports it against the yen.On the Japanese side, the yen (JPY) continues to weaken due to the sustained soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Despite discussions on the possibility of adjusting interest rates, the BoJ continues to maintain ultra-low rates, which puts pressure on the yen. Additionally, the weakness of the Japanese economy, associated with low domestic demand and slowing exports, also contributes to the weakening of the JPY. As a result, traders prefer to sell the yen, which leads to an increase in the GBP/JPY pair.Resistance levels: 190.00, 191.50.Support levels: 188.00, 186.50.AUD/NZD: the pair is declining amid expectations of the RBNZ meetingAs of August 13, 2024, the AUD/NZD currency pair shows a slight decrease, trading around 1.0929, which is 0.05% lower compared to the previous close. The pair's move comes against the backdrop of the upcoming meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which will be a key event this week.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. Recent data on the consumer price index and retail sales indicate a slowdown in economic activity. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to take a cautious approach to changing interest rates, which puts pressure on the Australian dollar (AUD). It is expected that the published data on consumer confidence and wage growth will also not provide significant support for AUD, given the current economic conditions.On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains under market scrutiny ahead of the RBNZ decision. At the moment, the central bank of New Zealand is likely to keep the interest rate at 5.5% for the ninth meeting in a row. However, the ongoing economic uncertainty and the risk of a possible rate cut in the future continue to have an impact on the NZD. Strong labor market indicators and stable inflation play into the hands of the New Zealand dollar, but the market is anxiously awaiting further steps by RBNZ.Resistance levels: 1.0975, 1.1028.Support levels: 1.0880, 1.0844.Platinum market analysisAs of August 13, 2024, the price of platinum continues to remain under pressure, trading around the $920 per ounce mark, which is close to the lows recorded since the beginning of April. The decline in platinum prices is due to several key factors, including a decrease in demand from the automotive industry and an increase in the volume of recycling of secondary raw materials.The economic situation in the world has a negative impact on the demand for platinum, especially in the automotive industry, which is the largest consumer of this metal. Slowing car sales amid global economic problems is reducing demand for platinum, despite stricter environmental regulations. Automakers are switching to using cheaper palladium to meet emissions requirements, which further reduces the need for platinum.In addition, there is a decrease in investor interest. In recent years, the volume of investments in platinum through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has decreased by more than 20%, due to rising interest rates and competition from other precious metals such as palladium and rhodium. The strengthening of the US dollar is also putting pressure on platinum prices, making it more expensive for foreign buyers.Resistance levels: $950, $1000.Support levels: $900, $880.Coffee market analysisAs of August 13, 2024, coffee prices continue to show increased volatility, trading around $2.33 per pound of Arabica, reflecting a 2.1% increase since the end of July. The main factors influencing the cost of coffee are weather conditions and changes in global supply.The economic situation in key producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam has a significant impact on the market. In Brazil, the effects of the dry season in the Minas Gerais region are continuing, which has led to a decrease in crop forecasts for 2024/25. At the same time, Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta, is increasing production volumes, which may ease pressure on robusta prices, but continues to support Arabica prices. Despite the increase in supply, prices remain high due to concerns about the future harvest amid the continuing risk of climatic anomalies such as El Nino.On the other hand, the demand for coffee is also growing, especially against the background of the trend towards a healthy lifestyle and the preference for natural drinks among consumers. This supports a steady demand for Arabica, despite rising prices. However, a possible global economic downturn could weaken consumption and affect overall demand, which is also an important factor for future prices.Resistance levels: $2.40, $2.50.Support levels: $2.25, ...