EUR/USD: trend line analysisDuring morning trading in Asia, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to grow, reaching 1.0844, maintaining the positive trend of the last day.The published economic indicators had a limited impact on the pair's movement. In March, the consumer price index in the eurozone rose by 0.8% month-on-month, leading to a decrease in annual inflation from 2.6% to 2.4%. The core index excluding the cost of food and energy dropped to 2.9% from 3.1%. At the same time, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.5%. It is expected that additional data on production inflation for February, which will be published at 11:00 GMT, will show a decrease in the producer price index by -0.7% month-on-month and by -8.6% year-on-year, confirming the stability of previous values. The March figures also indicate a decrease in annual inflation to 2.4% and an increase in monthly inflation to 0.8%, with a decrease in the base index to 2.9% year-on-year, but with an increase to 1.1% month-on-month.Resistance levels: 1.0924, 1.1033.Support levels: 1.0807, 1.0732.NZD/USD: the US dollar remains stable without forming a trendIn the Asian session, the NZD/USD exchange rate has been rising, holding near the 0.6028 level due to the weakening of the USD.Statistics from New Zealand show an increase in permits for the construction of new homes in February by 2,795 thousand or 6% compared to last year. Among these, 1,297 thousand permits were issued for the construction of individual houses (a decrease of 0.5%), and 1,498 thousand for apartment buildings (a decrease of 10%). However, taking into account seasonal fluctuations, the total number of building permits increased by 15%, while a decrease of -8.6% was recorded in January. Separately, there is a decrease in the commodity price index according to ANZ Group in March by -1.3% after an increase of 3.6% in the previous month.Resistance levels: 0.6050, 0.6130.Support levels: 0.5990, 0.5920.AUD/USD: RBA introduces measures to increase banks' liquidityThe AUD/USD currency pair shows a noticeable upward trend, overcoming the level of 0.6585 and updating the highs reached on March 21, thanks to the upward correction that began on Tuesday.The Australian dollar is strengthening against the background of the latest macroeconomic data from the country: the March index of business activity in the services sector, measured by the Commonwealth Bank, rose from 53.5 to 54.4, and the overall economic index improved from 52.4 to 53.3. At the same time, data on construction permits in February showed mixed results: annual growth accelerated from 4.8% to 5.2%, but the monthly figure decreased by 1.9%, despite expectations of growth of 3.3% after the previous fall of 2.5%.Chris Kent, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), announced plans to introduce an innovative method of maintaining the liquidity of financial institutions, including conducting REPO operations on the open market at rates close to the target level through full-coverage auctions. This measure is designed to support the banking sector, which was actively supplied with cash during the pandemic, in the face of reduced reserves due to repayment of emergency loans, thereby minimizing the risks of unforeseen volatility and market disruptions.Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6616, 0.6638, 0.6667.Support levels: 0.6578, 0.6558, 0.6540, 0.6524.Silver market analysisThe value of silver is experiencing a slight drop, moving away from the peak values of June 2021, reached at the beginning of afternoon trading on Thursday, while the asset is checking the level of 27.00 for a possible further decline. Investors are anxiously awaiting the release of the March report on the state of the US labor market, which is expected at the end of the week and may provide new information about a potential reduction in loan rates by the US Federal Reserve System (FRS).The market is also focused on the consequences of the recent speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who, according to expectations, stressed the need for a detailed analysis of economic data to confirm a steady decline in the inflation rate to the 2% target. Powell emphasized that the Fed will not rush to make decisions, given the continued stability of the American economy. Current forecasts tend to expect an interest rate cut of 25 basis points as early as June, with a probability slightly above 50%, which causes some analysts to argue about the possible postponement of the change in the regulator's approach to a later date.On the eve of these events, the growth of the asset was hindered by the latest macroeconomic data from the United States from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) concerning employment in the private sector: March figures showed an increase of 184 thousand, which exceeded both the previous month with its 155 thousand and the projected 148 thousand.Resistance levels: 27.33, 27.60, 28.00, 28.29.Support levels: 27.00, 26.57, 26.19, ...
EUR/USD: Eurozone sentiment index signals improved prospectsThe EUR/USD currency pair follows the correction rate, being at 1.0823.Market activity has slowed in recent days due to traders' preference to avoid new deals amid the approaching Easter weekend, although economic data looks relatively favorable. For example, the consumer price index in Spain increased from 0.4% to 0.8% on a monthly basis in March and from 2.8% to 3.2% year-on-year. The index, harmonized with EU standards, showed an increase of 1.3% for the month, reaching the highest value since June 2022 and accelerating from 2.9% to 3.2% year-on-year. The EU consumer confidence index fell from -14.9 to -15.5 points, inflation expectations rose from 3.9 to 5.6 points, and the index of expectations in the service sector rose from 6.0 to 6.3 points. Market optimism is fueled by the anticipation of an imminent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank. Today, the chairman of the Bank of Italy, Piero Cipollone, expressed confidence that inflation will fall to the target level of 2.0% by mid-2025, based on a slowdown in wage growth, which may be the basis for adapting monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.0870, 1.0980.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0700.USD/TRY: tourist growth in Turkey reached 22.68 in February%During the Asian trading session, the USD/TRY rate continues to show an upward trend on the short-term horizon, approaching the level of 32.3060 for a possible breakout, ahead of the publication of important statistics on consumer inflation in the United States.The Turkish lira is losing ground amid the current economic difficulties in the country. Recently, the Central Bank of Turkey increased the key rate by 500 basis points to 50%, which came as a surprise to analysts who expected a 250-point increase or stabilization of the rate. Inflation expectations remain stable on the part of the government: it is assumed that by the end of the year the inflation rate will reach 36%, and by 2025 it will decrease to 14%. The beginning of the tourist season contributes to a partial economic recovery: in February, the number of foreign tourists increased to 22.68%, reaching 2.3 million people, of whom 1.3 million visited Istanbul. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his intention to attract 60 million tourists this year, which should bring the country an income of $ 60 billion. Last year, 56.7 million people visited Turkey, which is 12% more than the previous year, bringing in revenue of 54.3 billion dollars, which is an increase of 16.9%.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.45000, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.USD/JPY: currency pair stabilizes near historical peaksThe USD/JPY currency pair is approaching the 151.35 mark, with the yen at its lowest levels since 1990. The discussion of the possibility of currency interventions by the Bank of Japan has again intensified among market participants, recalling last year's events when the exchange rate exceeded 145.00.The central bank's rejection of negative interest rates did not bring significant support to the national currency, as this decision was predictable. Analysts' attention is focused on the potential tightening of monetary policy, the prospects for which remain vague.Representatives of the Bank of Japan stressed their intention to continue applying a soft monetary policy and maintain the current volume of interventions in the government bond market. Naoki Tamura, a member of the Board of Governors of the Bank of Japan, expressed the view that it is necessary to consistently focus on tightening the monetary sphere and warned against the dangers of aggressively increasing the cost of lending in the event of too rapid inflation.Resistance levels: 151.50, 152.00, 152.50, 153.00.Support levels: 151.00, 150.50, 150.00, 149.50.Silver market analysisThe price of silver shows a moderate increase, approaching the indicator of 24.70 and continuing the growth that began a day earlier, after moving away from the minimum values on March 13 against the background of unclear expectations for easing the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System. A previous statement by the US central bank eased concerns about a slowdown in the pace of lower lending costs this year: markets are still anticipating three interest rate adjustments of 25 basis points each, with the first expected step in June.The final data on gross domestic product (GDP) will be in the focus of traders' attention today The United States for the fourth quarter of 2023 and statistics on applications for unemployment benefits. Economic growth is expected to remain at 3.2%, and the number of new applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended March 22 will increase from 210.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 24.71, 25.00, 25.35, 25.58.Support levels: 24.40, 24.20, 24.00, ...
EUR/GBP: the euro is growing amid negative forecasts for the German economyDuring Asian trading, the EUR/GBP currency pair shows growth, heading towards overcoming the 0.8570 level.The euro received support from February data on consumer confidence in the European Union, which showed an improvement from -16.1 to -15.5 points, ahead of analysts' forecasts of -15.6 points. At the same time, the euro is being influenced by the downward revision of the German economic growth forecast. Experts now forecast German GDP growth of only 0.2% this year, instead of the previously expected 1.3%, due to weak external demand for German goods, geopolitical risks and high inflation. German inflation is expected to reach 2.8% this year, falling short of the ECB's 2% target. Today's publication of S&P Global business activity data for February attracts the attention of investors, and a slight improvement in indicators in the services and manufacturing sectors is predicted.Resistance levels: 0.8577, 0.8591, 0.8611, 0.8632.Support levels: 0.8562, 0.8546, 0.8519, 0.8500.NZD/USD: reassessment of the timing of the easing of the US Federal Reserve policyThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing significant growth, continuing to form a bullish trend that began on February 14. At the moment, the pair is trying to overcome the 0.6200 level, updating the highs recorded since January 16.The strengthening of the New Zealand dollar is facilitated by the current weakness of the US dollar, which became apparent after the publication of the results of the January meeting of the Federal Reserve System. The participants of the Federal Open Market Committee expressed concern about the risks of early interest rate cuts compared with the duration of tightened monetary policy. As a result, markets adjusted expectations for Fed policy easing in May and June, where the probability of a 25 basis point correction is estimated at 35%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.The positive trend for NZD/USD was not disrupted even by weak economic indicators from New Zealand, where exports fell from $5.85 billion to $4.93 billion in January, and imports fell from $6.22 billion to $5.91 billion, which led to an increase in the trade deficit from $368 million to $976 million in a month. New Zealand retail sales data for the fourth quarter of 2023 is also expected to be released this evening.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6250, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6158, 0.6130, 0.6100, 0.6060.AUD/USD: the market evaluates the results of the last sessions of the RBA and the US Federal ReserveThe AUD/USD currency pair is at 0.6580 and is aimed at further strengthening to the target of 0.6616.This week, the results of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) were presented. During the meeting, the regulator expressed the opinion that before making a decision to reduce the interest rate from the current level of 4.35%, additional time and data analysis will be required, with special attention to achieving a stable rate of inflation reduction to the target level of 2.0%. Salary growth in the fourth quarter was in line with experts' forecasts, showing an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous quarter and reaching 4.2% on an annual basis, which was higher than the expected 4.1%. This may encourage the RBA to maintain a high level of interest rates for longer than expected by the market, although most analysts still believe that the bank will begin to ease monetary policy this fall.Resistance levels: 0.6616, 0.6675, 0.6727.Support levels: 0.6538, 0.6447.Silver market analysisThe XAG/USD currency pair is experiencing a slight rise, approaching the level of 23.00. Market activity remains moderate, despite the abundance of economic data.Expectations of a soft monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve contribute to the support of silver. The analysis of the CME Group FedWatch Tool shows a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts in May from the previously estimated 60% to the current 35%. The publication of the minutes of the January Fed meeting confirmed such sentiments, where FOMC members expressed concern about the rate of decline in inflation to the target level of 2%. There is an opinion that expectations for a decrease in inflation may not come true, which pushes the regulator to continue careful monitoring of the economic situation, and the risks are associated with an early reduction in rates rather than with a long period of their high level.Today, investors will also focus on the statistics of applications for unemployment benefits and on February business activity data from S&P Global, where a slight decrease in indices in the service and manufacturing sectors is expected.Resistance levels: 23.00, 23.32, 23.60, 23.83.Support levels: 22.70, 22.50, 22.21, ...
EUR/USD: exploring sloping support and resistance levelsDuring Asian trading, the EUR/USD currency pair is holding near the 1.0725 level, experiencing uncertainty in movement after the recent publication of economic data, which did not have a noticeable impact on market sentiment.In the last quarter, the annual GDP of the eurozone showed no changes, remaining at the level of the previous period, with annual growth of 0.1%, in line with analysts' expectations. December showed an increase in industrial production from 0.4% to 2.6% and from -5.4% to 1.2% on an annual basis, while employment increased from 0.2% to 0.3%.The dynamics of the pair is significantly affected by the correction in the positions of the US dollar, which reached the level of 104.50 on the USDX index. The market is looking forward to the evening statistics on the US labor market and retail sales, expecting that they will provide clues about the future steps of the Federal Reserve System at the March meeting. Forecasts indicate that the core retail sales index for January will decrease from 0.4% to 0.2%, and the number of new applications for unemployment benefits will increase from 218,000 to 219,000.Resistance levels: 1.0827, 1.0942.Support levels: 1.0635, 1.0551.GBP/USD: pound is under pressure due to a number of factorsIn an attempt to reorient medium-term growth to decline, GBP/USD has started falling again since the beginning of the month, being influenced by monetary aspects, now being at the level of 1.2553.In light of recent economic statistics, the Bank of England may be inclined to ease monetary policy earlier than the US Federal Reserve. In January, American inflation exceeded expectations, reaching 3.1% per annum against the projected 2.9%, while British inflation remained at 4.0%, falling short of the expected 4.1%. This indicates a slowdown in the decline in inflationary pressures in the United States, causing concern among regulators, while in the UK the indicators remain stable, strengthening investor confidence in the 2.0% target. British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt expressed optimism about the stabilization of consumer prices at the target level in the near future.Resistance levels: 1.2634, 1.2756, 1.2817.Support levels: 1.2451, 1.2390.Silver prices analysisThe price of the precious metal shows a noticeable strengthening, following the upward correction trend started on the previous day. Now silver is trying to overcome the level of 22.40, trying to compensate for some of the losses incurred on Tuesday after the release of important data on inflation in the United States.The January consumer price index fell to 3.1% on an annual basis from the previous 3.4%, being slightly higher than the market forecasts of 2.9%. The monthly indicator increased from 0.2% to 0.3%. Core inflation, excluding the cost of food and energy, remained at 3.9%, contrary to the expected 3.7%. This forced the markets to adjust expectations again regarding the time of the beginning of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. The current probability of interest rate cuts in March is 15%, and in May it is about 50%.Investors are focused on the January retail sales statistics in the United States, expecting a decrease of 0.1% after an increase of 0.6% a month earlier. In the coming days, we will also have to familiarize ourselves with the data on industrial inflation for January. The producer price index is projected to decrease from 1.0% to 0.6% on an annual basis and increase from -0.2% to 0.1% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 22.50, 22.70, 23.00, 23.32.Support levels: 22.21, 22.00, 21.75, 21.50.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices have rolled back from a high of 78.61, now at 76.16, amid an increase in hydrocarbon reserves in the United States.The American Petroleum Institute (API) report presented mixed data: crude oil volumes increased by 8.520 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks decreased by 7.23 million barrels and 4.02 million barrels, respectively. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), last week showed an increase in inventories by 12.018 million barrels, which significantly exceeded expectations of 3,300 million barrels. This continuation of the trend of increasing inventories over the past three weeks is putting additional pressure on oil prices.Resistance levels: 78.61, 83.50.Support levels: 72.11, ...