EUR/USD: Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4%, supporting the euroAs of November 1, 2024, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading at 1.0767, which is 0.5% lower compared to the previous session.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. Annual inflation in October was 2.0%, which is higher than analysts' expectations of 1.9%. Core inflation remained at 2.7%, which exceeds the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). GDP for the third quarter grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, exceeding growth forecasts of 0.2%, indicating some recovery in economic activity. The unemployment rate in the region has stabilized at 6.3%. Despite these data, the ECB decided at its meeting on October 30 to leave the key rate at 3.75%, citing the need for further analysis of economic conditions before changing monetary policy. Retail sales data for September is expected to be published at 11:00 (GMT+2), where a decrease of 0.2% is forecast; this may put pressure on the euro in case of confirmation or deterioration of indicators.In the United States, the economic situation is showing resilience. Data on the number of jobs created outside agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls) is expected to be published at 15:30 (GMT+2). The forecast is 113,000, which supports expectations of stability in the labor market. If the data turns out to be higher than forecasts, this may strengthen the dollar's position and lead to a further decline in the EUR/USD pair. The business activity index (PMI) for October showed an increase to 51.5 points, which is higher than the previous 50.8 and confirms the expansion of production activity. On October 31, the Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, arguing that maintaining economic growth and inflation control. At 14:00 (GMT+2), data on the business activity index (PMI) in the US manufacturing sector will also be published, a decrease to 49.5 points is expected, which may affect the dollar if it deviates from the forecast.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.GBP/USD: falling retail sales and weak PMI put pressure on the poundAs of November 1, 2024, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.2980, which is 0.5% lower compared to the previous session.The UK continues to face economic challenges. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 48.5 in October, indicating a decrease in activity in the sector. The consumer confidence index also fell to 95.0, reflecting public concern about the economic situation. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter showed an increase of 0.2% in quarterly terms, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.1% year-on-year in September, which is higher than the target level of the Bank of England. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, unchanged from the previous month. The producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating an increase in costs for manufacturers. The business confidence index dropped to 98.0, reflecting the pessimistic mood among entrepreneurs. The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) decreased by 0.3% in September, which may indicate a slowdown in economic activity in the coming months. Retail sales in September decreased by 0.5% on a monthly basis, indicating a decrease in consumer activity. The balance of foreign trade showed a deficit of 5.2 billion pounds, indicating an excess of imports over exports. At the last meeting, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, noting the need for further monitoring of inflation risks. The head of the Bank of England announced his readiness to take additional measures in case of deterioration of the economic situation.Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900.USD/CAD: trade surplus supports CAD amid volatilityAs of November 1, 2024, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading at 1.3933, which is 0.5% higher compared to the previous session.The economic and political situation in Canada demonstrates diverse trends that are reflected in the dynamics of the Canadian dollar. In the third quarter of 2024, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, which is higher than in the second quarter, but below the expectations of analysts, who predicted growth of 0.5%. The main drivers of growth were the financial and insurance sectors, which showed an increase of 0.5%, and the services sector, including transport, where growth was 0.3%. However, the downturn in the manufacturing sector, where the business activity index (PMI) fell to 49.1, indicates problems in industry, affecting export dynamics and affecting domestic economic prospects.The situation with foreign trade remains positive. The trade surplus in the last reporting period amounted to 1.2 billion Canadian dollars due to high demand for energy resources and agricultural goods. However, volatility in global oil and gas prices may pose a risk to the sustainability of the Canadian economy and the CAD exchange rate, as a significant portion of the country's income depends on these export sectors. Investors will be closely watching upcoming publications on retail sales and the producer price index (PPI), which may have an impact on the prospects for the Canadian dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3946, 1.4075.Support levels: 1.3890, 1.3750.Silver market analysisAs of November 1, 2024, silver is trading at $33.66 per troy ounce, which is 0.27% lower compared to the previous session.Important economic events affecting the price of silver are observed in silver-producing countries. In Mexico, the largest producer of silver, GDP grew by 0.5% in quarterly terms in the third quarter of 2024, which is lower than analysts' expectations of 0.7% growth. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in October compared to September, indicating continued inflationary pressures. The central bank of Mexico has left its key interest rate at 11.25% to control inflation. In Peru, the second largest producer, industrial production decreased by 1.2% year-on-year in September 2024 due to the downturn in the mining sector. The business confidence index fell to 45 points, which demonstrates a pessimistic mood.Among the silver-consuming countries, the United States and China play a key role. In the United States, GDP for the third quarter of 2024 increased by 2.1% year-on-year, in line with analysts' expectations. However, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 98 points in October, reflecting concerns about future economic conditions. The Fed kept its key rate at 5.5%, while continuing to monitor inflation. In China, GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in the third quarter from 5.2% in the second quarter. The PMI in the manufacturing sector fell to 49.8 points in October, indicating a reduction in activity. The Chinese government has announced plans to increase government spending on infrastructure to boost the economy.Resistance levels: 34.50, 35.00.Support levels: 33.00, ...
EUR/USD: the regulator in the USA adjusted the rate by 25 bp.The EUR/USD pair continues to adjust, trading around 1.0375 amid the strengthening of the US dollar and growing expectations of further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) after the published data on a decrease in inflation.In November, the consumer price index in the eurozone fell from 0.3% to -0.3% on a monthly basis, and increased from 2.0% to 2.2% on an annual basis, which turned out to be lower than forecasts of 2.3%. The basic indicator excluding energy and food products fell from 0.2% to -0.6% on a monthly basis and remained at 2.7% on an annual basis. These results strengthen the case for continued rate cuts, which puts pressure on the euro.The US dollar strengthened to 107.80 on the USDX index after the decision of the US Federal Reserve to cut the rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25–4.50%. In addition, the regulator presented revised forecasts: inflation in 2024 is expected to reach 2.4% against 2.3% earlier, in 2025 — 2.5% instead of 2.1%. The GDP growth forecast has been improved to 2.5% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025. The average rate by the end of 2025 is expected to be 4.4%, and in 2026 it will decrease to 3.9%, which is higher than previous estimates. In his statement, the head of the Fed noted that the US economy remains stable, the labor market is cooling, and inflation has slowed significantly over the past two years, although it exceeds target levels. He also stressed that the risks to inflation are generally balanced, but the current dynamics may include temporary factors.Resistance levels: 1.0410, 1.0580.Support levels: 1.0330, 1.0180.GBP/USD: UK has joined the CPTPP Economic AllianceDuring morning trading, the GBP/USD pair is held at 1.2590, partially recovering the losses incurred the previous day. The increase in quotations is due to technical factors, but traders are taking a wait-and-see position before the announcement of the results of the Bank of England meeting scheduled for 14:00 (GMT+2). According to analysts, the regulator's management will probably decide to leave the key rate at 4.75%, with eight of the nine board members supporting this decision.Wednesday brought disappointment in the form of inflation data: the consumer price index rose from 2.3% to 2.6% in November, and the base indicator increased from 3.3% to 3.5%, which slightly exceeded forecasts. Such dynamics signal the possibility of further revision of monetary policy by the Bank of England if inflationary pressure persists or increases in the coming months.On December 15, the United Kingdom completed the process of joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, becoming a full participant in it. Within the framework of the alliance, the country waived import duties on palm oil from Malaysia, and also facilitated a number of procedures for trade with other members of the agreement. This step underlines London's desire to strengthen international economic ties and develop partnerships with 11 other member states of the association.Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2730.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400.Silver market analysisAfter a long period of consolidation above the 30.00 mark, the XAG/USD pair fell below this level, which is due to the strengthening of the US currency.The decline in silver prices is taking place against the background of the "dovish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve System. Each step to lower the interest rate, accompanied by statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, puts pressure on the metals market. Powell stressed that the American economy is showing stability, and the forecast for GDP growth at the end of 2024 has been raised to 2.5% against the previously expected 2.0%. Moreover, the regulator is considering the possibility of a temporary pause in the cycle of monetary policy easing in order to strengthen control over inflation and bring it to a level below 2.0%. Such steps reduce the attractiveness of precious metals as a protective asset in conditions of stabilization of the economic situation.On December 18, the volume of silver futures trading decreased to 50.0 thousand, which is significantly lower than the maximum values of December 11 and 12 — 126.0–127.0 thousand. A similar reduction is observed in the option position, which yesterday amounted to 8,145 thousand, down from a peak of 22,706 thousand last week. This may indicate that market participants are not confident that silver prices will continue to rise and prefer to close positions, waiting for clearer signals for further action.Resistance levels: 30.00, 31.40.Support levels: 29.00, 27.40.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices are showing a sideways trend, remaining slightly above the level of 72.00. The instrument was under pressure due to the growth of the US currency, which reached an annual maximum after the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points and improved forecasts for economic growth by the end of the year.Investors drew attention to the agreement concluded between the Russian company Rosneft and the Indian giant Reliance Industries Ltd. The document provides for the transportation of 500.0 thousand barrels of oil daily to India for ten years, starting in 2025, which makes this deal the largest for the region. The implementation of the project will cover a significant share of Indian demand for hydrocarbons, and processed raw materials will probably be supplied to the countries of the European Union, filling the market deficit caused by sanctions against the Russian energy sector related to the conflict in Ukraine.Support levels: 71.23, 67.61.Resistance levels: 75.38, ...
EUR/USD: slowing inflation has increased pressure on the euroThe EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0505 level in morning trading on December 12, showing a moderate decrease of 0.23% from the level of the previous session. The pressure on the European currency remains against the background of ambiguous macroeconomic data from the eurozone and expectations of further comments from the European Central Bank (ECB).Last week, preliminary GDP data for the third quarter were published in the eurozone. Growth was 0.1% on a quarterly basis, which coincided with analysts' expectations, but indicated a slowdown in growth compared with 0.2% in the second quarter. Also, the consumer price index (CPI) in November increased by 0.5% on a monthly basis and 2.4% on an annual basis, which is slightly higher than forecasts of 2.3%. However, Core inflation (Core CPI) slowed from 4.2% to 4.0%, indicating a weakening of inflationary pressures in the eurozone.In the eurozone labor market, the unemployment rate remained at 6.4% in October, which corresponds to historically low values, but the rate of employment growth slowed to 0.1%. The business activity index (PMI) in the services sector, published by S&P Global, amounted to 50.7 points, indicating the stagnation of the sector. Today at 12:00 (GMT+2), the index of business sentiment from the ZEW Institute will be published, where analysts expect a decrease from -5.0 to -7.3 points. Attention will also be focused on the ECB meeting on Thursday, December 14, where the policy on rates may be clarified.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0850.GBP/USD: stability of consumer confidence constrains growthThe GBP/USD pair shows an upward trend, trading near the 1.2240 mark on Thursday, December 12. The exchange rate added 0.42% compared to the level of the previous session, due to the weakening of economic pressure on the pound against the background of published data.Thus, the index of business activity in the UK construction sector (PMI) rose to 52.6 points in November, exceeding analysts' expectations at 51.0 points. Similarly, retail sales in the country showed improvement, increasing by 1.2% on a monthly basis, which exceeded forecasts of 0.8%. Experts attribute the growth to a seasonal increase in demand and the adaptation of the market to current inflationary conditions. However, the GfK consumer confidence index remained unchanged at -28 points, indicating continued consumer caution.In addition, British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said that the government will continue to support small businesses in the face of high interest rates, emphasizing the importance of investments in infrastructure and education. At the upcoming meeting of the Bank of England on December 14, investors expect a decision on the key rate, the current level of which is 5.25%. Analysts predict that the rate will remain unchanged, which should stabilize the market. A report on changes in employment in the UK will be published today at 12:30 (GMT+2): analysts expect a decrease in the number of employed by 21.0 thousand, which may put pressure on the pound. In addition, at 16:00 (GMT+2), industrial production data for November will be released, with a projected decrease of 0.2%.Resistance levels: 1.2280, 1.2350.Silver market analysisDuring the Asian session on Thursday, December 12, silver quotations show an upward trend, trading around the level of 32.07 US dollars per troy ounce, which is 0.75% higher than the level of the previous session.The rise in silver prices is supported by the weakening of the US dollar and expectations of changes in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (Fed). Recent data showed a slowdown in inflation in the United States: the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year in November, which is lower than the October figures of 0.3% and 3.5%, respectively. In addition, the unemployment rate remained at 3.8%, which is in line with analysts' expectations. In such circumstances, investors assume that the Fed may refrain from further raising interest rates in the near future, which puts pressure on the dollar and contributes to higher prices for precious metals.Industrial demand for silver is also influenced by the economic performance of China, one of the largest consumers of this metal. In November, the business activity index (PMI) in the Chinese manufacturing sector amounted to 50.5 points, exceeding analysts' forecasts of 50.2 points and the October figure of 50.1 points. The improvement in business activity in China contributes to an increase in demand for silver used in various industries, which supports the growth of its value.Resistance levels: 32.50, 33.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading session on Thursday, December 12, quotations of coffee (Arabica) on the New York ICE exchange showed growth, reaching 162.5 cents per pound, which is 0.88% higher than the closing level of the previous session. Investors are reacting to news about declining yields in major producing countries amid adverse weather conditions.Weather conditions in Brazil, the largest coffee producer, remain a key factor in supply pressures. According to the latest data, precipitation in key arabica growing regions has been 15-20% below normal over the past two months, which may reduce the total harvest by 7%. Additionally, experts note an increase in the cost of fertilizers and fuel, which increases the cost of production. In turn, November's export figures decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, to 2.67 million bags. The Brazilian Association of Coffee Exporters (CECAFE) predicts a further decline in exports in December due to logistical difficulties and limited stocks.Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on global coffee production and stocks will be published today at 17:30 (GMT+2). Global production is expected to decrease by 4.7% to 167.2 million bags, which may support the current upward trend in the market. Inflation data in Brazil will also be released at 15:00 (GMT+2): analysts predict an increase from 4.8% to 5.1% year-on-year, which may affect coffee export prices.Resistance levels: 165.0, ...
EUR/USD: investors' attention is focused on the crisis in FranceThe EUR/USD pair is correcting near the 1.0509 mark, demonstrating a decrease in interest in the US dollar, but at the same time not receiving sufficient support from the macroeconomic data of the eurozone.According to forecasts, the November index of business activity in the Spanish services sector will decrease from 54.9 points to 53.6 points, in Italy from 52.4 points to 51.1 points, in France from 48.1 points to 44.8 points, and in Germany from 51.6 points to 49.4 points. These data indicate a slowdown in economic activity even against the background of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) aimed at supporting businesses and reducing debt pressure. The combined indicator of business activity in the eurozone is likely to decrease from 51.6 points to 49.2 points, which will take it out of the positive zone for the first time since the beginning of the year.Investors' attention is also focused on the political situation in France, where Prime Minister Michel Barnier, bypassing parliament, is promoting a bill providing for an increase in the tax burden on businesses by $ 62.8 billion and a reduction in government spending by $ 42.0 billion in order to reduce the budget deficit of 6.1% of GDP. This step caused sharp dissatisfaction with the opposition, which initiated the procedure for passing a vote of no confidence in the government. The escalating crisis risks exacerbating the already difficult situation of the national economy, which continues to struggle with high inflationary pressures.Support levels: 1.0460, 1.0330.Resistance levels: 1.0540, 1.0680.NZD/USD: construction statistics brought down NZD positionsThe NZD/USD pair started the week with negative dynamics, holding around 0.5860 after the publication of fresh macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand.According to the report, in October, the number of construction permits issued fell by 5.2%, which is significantly worse than the forecast of 1.7%. The previous value was also revised downwards from 2.6% to 2.4%. Such data reinforce concerns about a slowdown in economic growth and a possible negative impact on gross domestic product (GDP). In the current situation, experts predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may consider options for lowering interest rates to stimulate business activity, which puts pressure on the national currency. However, there are also positive signals: trading conditions improved from 2.1% to 2.4% in the third quarter, which turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations at 1.8%. This factor can provide short-term support to the New Zealand dollar, deterring it from a deeper decline until additional catalysts appear on the market.Resistance levels: 0.6035, 0.6120, 0.6220.Support levels: 0.5860, 0.5800, 0.5600.Silver market analysisAfter a long period of decline, the XAG/USD pair is showing recovery and is holding at 31.06 during trading in the Asian session. However, there is no confident upward momentum yet.One of the main limiting factors remains the decline in interest in silver, both in the form of contracts and in the form of physical metal, which is in demand in industry. According to the Silver Institute, in 2024, the volume of investments in this asset may decrease by 15.0%, reaching only $ 208.0 million. The decline is particularly noticeable in the US market, where sales of investment bars and coins fell by 40.0%, which is the lowest since 2019. The reason for this trend may be both a reduction in the financial capabilities of market participants and their preference for more active instruments such as gold or oil. Nevertheless, certain positive trends persist. In particular, industrial demand for silver will increase by 7.0% this year, and investments in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by this metal will grow by 8.0%. This growth will be the first improvement since 2020, indicating a recovery in interest from long-term investors and the industrial sector.Resistance levels: 31.40, 33.00.Support levels: 30.50, 28.70.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices continue to move towards the important 70.00 mark, supporting the optimistic mood in the global commodity markets. The weakening of the US dollar has become a key driver of the current positive dynamics, which helps attract investors to energy purchases.The focus of market participants is on the meeting of OPEC+ ministers scheduled for Thursday at 12:00 (GMT+2). It is expected that the cartel members will again be unable to come to an agreement on increasing oil production, postponing this decision for the third time in a row for a maximum period of three months. The previous adjustment of production volumes, scheduled for December and amounting to 180.0 thousand barrels per day, was also postponed from October. This uncertainty is related to the variability in the forecast of global demand for hydrocarbons, especially against the background of slowing economic growth in key consumer countries. Special attention is paid to China, where economic difficulties have been observed since the beginning of autumn, but their mitigation has been accompanied by the country's active transition to electric transport, which reduces oil consumption. This process, although gradual, is already having an impact on the market. According to Reuters analysts, Chinese oil companies predict a further decline in demand for raw materials, as electric vehicles continue to displace gasoline-powered vehicles.Resistance levels: 71.20, 74.10.Support levels: 68.60, ...
EUR/USD: the Bank of Italy insists on revising interest rate policyThe EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, holding near the 1.0590 level. Trading activity remains elevated, but market participants have not decided on the direction of the trend after the growth recorded at the beginning of the week.Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone failed to provide significant support for the euro, which continues to trade near local highs due to the weakening of the dollar. In October, the core consumer price index in the region increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which coincided with market expectations. The broader indicator also increased by 0.3% and 2.0%, respectively. These data indicate that inflation has stabilized at the target level, which causes uncertainty about the future steps of the European Central Bank (ECB). Particular attention was drawn to statements by the head of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, who advocated lowering interest rates to support an economy on the verge of stagnation. He noted that delay could lead to inflation falling significantly below the target level, which would complicate its recovery with the help of monetary instruments.The US dollar came under pressure after the publication of weak statistics. In October, the number of construction permits fell to 1.325 million after the September value of 1.430 million, and their volume decreased by 0.6% in percentage terms after a decrease of 3.1% a month earlier. The number of construction starts also decreased by 3.1% after a 1.9% decrease in September. However, a positive factor was the dynamics of the Redbook retail sales index, which accelerated from 4.8% to 5.1% in November. On Friday, S&P Global is scheduled to publish November indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector in the United States and the eurozone, which may become key factors for the further movement of the pair.Resistance levels: 1.0600, 1.0630, 1.0665, 1.0700.Support levels: 1.0561, 1.0530, 1.0500, 1.0450.AUD/USD: the attention of market participants is focused on the RBA protocolsThe AUD/USD pair shows a corrective decline, trading around 0.6526, while the Australian currency remains positive, and the US dollar continues to weaken.The day before, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on November 5 were published. Representatives of the regulator confirmed that the key challenge for the country's economy is high inflation. Although the overall index shows a decline due to cheaper fuel, core inflation, reflecting long-term trends, continues to grow. According to RBA analysts, it will not return to the target range of 1.0–2.0% before 2026. In the current situation, the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) remains low, which necessitates maintaining a restraining monetary policy.The RBA left the key interest rate at 4.35%, stressing that the policy of strict borrowing conditions will remain in place until favorable macroeconomic conditions appear. The agency also pointed out that the transition to lower rates is possible only if there is a stable growth in consumption and a significant deterioration in the labor market situation. Experts believe that the regulator's further steps will depend on the dynamics of domestic demand and the state of global economic relations.Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6670.Support levels: 0.6490, 0.6400.Silver market analysisIn morning trading, the XAG/USD pair is holding around 31.16, supported by rising gold prices and statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve.The US central bank continues to adhere to the strategy of easing monetary policy, planning to reduce the key rate by 25 basis points in December. Such a move could strengthen the position of assets competing with the dollar, especially in the long term. A reduction in the interest rate, according to analysts, will lead to a reduction in the debt burden, which will create conditions for expanding production and increasing consumption of industrial metals. According to the forecasts of the Silver Institute, the demand for this metal will reach 700 million ounces in 2024, which corresponds to an annual increase of more than 7%.On the other hand, data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a decrease in the probability of a December rate cut: over the past two weeks, it has decreased from 80% to 58.9%. Against the background of this uncertainty, investors may pay more attention to precious metals, which will potentially lead to an increase in their value closer to the Fed meeting.Resistance levels: 31.70, 33.70.Support levels: 30.70, 28.70.Crude Oil market analysisIn the morning, WTI Crude Oil quotes show multidirectional dynamics, trading around the 69.00 mark. The instrument remains near the local highs reached on November 11, but is under pressure from news about a decrease in the supply of hydrocarbons. The Norwegian company Equinor ASA announced a reduction in production at the largest Western European field Johan Sverdrup due to power outages. In turn, the American Chevron announced a temporary limitation of production capacities at the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan in connection with maintenance.Problems in the Chinese economy continue to have an impact on the oil market. Despite the efforts of the authorities, recovery remains limited, and experts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predict that in 2024 the global surplus of hydrocarbon supply may exceed 1 million barrels per day. The key role in balancing the market will be played by the further policy of OPEC+ regarding the increase in production volumes.Additional pressure on the quotes was exerted by the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API), published the day before. In the week ending November 15, commercial oil reserves unexpectedly increased by 4,753 million barrels, while analysts had forecast an increase of 0.8 million barrels. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to be published today at 17:30 (GMT+2). Preliminary estimates indicate a possible slowdown in stock growth from 2.089 to 0.800 million barrels, which may affect further price dynamics.Resistance levels: 70.00, 71.00, 71.60, 72.17.Support levels: 69.06, 68.15, 67.00, ...
EUR/NZD: rising unemployment in New Zealand weakens the New Zealand dollarDuring the morning session, the EUR/NZD pair is trading around 1.8000, which is 0.5% higher compared to the previous session. The growth of the euro is due to the improvement of economic indicators in the eurozone and the weakening of the New Zealand dollar against the background of weak employment data.There is a moderate improvement in the economic situation in the eurozone. The Sentix investor sentiment index rose to -12.8 points in November from -13.8 in October, indicating a slight recovery in confidence. However, the indicator turned out to be below the predicted level of -12.5 points, indicating the continued caution of investors. In Germany, the region's largest economy, the sentiment index also rose to -29.8 points from -31.5, reflecting a slight improvement in economic expectations. The industrial production index for September will be published in the eurozone today at 12:00 (GMT+2). Experts expect a decrease of 0.4% on a monthly basis after an increase of 0.6% in August.The economic situation in New Zealand remains tense. The unemployment rate increased to 4.8% in the third quarter from 4.6% in the second quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase to 5%. Employment decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter, which also exceeded the projected decrease of 0.4%. These data indicate a weakening of the labor market and may influence the decisions of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand regarding monetary policy. In New Zealand, the ANZ consumer confidence index for November is expected to be published tomorrow at 02:00 (GMT+2). It is predicted that the index may decrease from 85.4 to 84.0 points, which will signal the growing concern of the population about the country's economic prospects.Resistance levels: 1.8050, 1.8100.Support levels: 1,7950, 1,7900.GBP/JPY: The Central Bank of Japan maintains a soft monetary policyDuring the morning session on November 8, the GBP/JPY pair was trading around 196.50, which is 0.3% higher compared to the previous session. The strengthening of the British pound is due to recent economic data and official statements.In the UK, the services Business Activity index (PMI) rose to 54.2 points in October from 53.6 in September, indicating continued growth in the sector. The consumer confidence index also improved, reaching -7 points compared to -9 in the previous month. At the last meeting, the Bank of England kept the interest rate at 5.25%, noting that inflation fell to 2.1% year-on-year, approaching the target level. The head of the Bank, Andrew Bailey, said that the current monetary policy contributes to sustainable economic growth.The economic situation in Japan remains stable. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in October amounted to 50.5 points, which indicates a slight increase. The unemployment rate remains at 2.5%. The Bank of Japan continues to adhere to a soft monetary policy, keeping the interest rate at -0.1%. Kazuo Ueda, the head of the Bank, noted that the current policy is aimed at stimulating economic growth and achieving the 2% inflation target. Data on orders for machinery and equipment for October is expected to be published tomorrow at 01:30 (GMT+2). A decrease of 0.3% is forecast compared to the previous month. Negative data may increase pressure on the yen, as a decrease in orders indicates a possible slowdown in industrial activity, which may support the Bank of Japan's position on soft monetary policy.Resistance levels: 197.00, 198.50.Support levels: 195.50, 194.00.USD/CAD: weak Ivey index puts pressure on the Canadian dollarDuring the morning session, the USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.3915, which is 0.2% higher compared to the previous session. The growth of the US dollar puts pressure on the Canadian dollar, which is influenced by weak macroeconomic statistics.In October, the Ivey composite business activity index, calculated on the basis of a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries, fell from 53.1 points to 52.0 points, the lowest since spring, excluding the August drop, and the indicator, excluding seasonal fluctuations, from 54.4 points to 52.2 points, interrupting the upward trend. A report from the labor market will be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2): experts assume that unemployment will increase from 6.5% to 6.6% against the background of changes in employment from 46.7 thousand to 27.9 thousand.The US dollar is strengthening amid expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The market expects the regulator to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% at the next meeting. In addition, US inflation data released last week showed an increase in the consumer price index (CPI) by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, which is higher than analysts' forecasts. Today, November 8, at 15:30 (GMT+2), data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published. The indicator is expected to decrease from 210 thousand. up to 205 thousand, which may strengthen the position of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 1.3920, 1.4050.Support levels: 1.3820, 1.3650.Silver market analysisAs of November 8, 2024, the price of silver (XAG/USD) is 24.50 US dollars per troy ounce, which is 0.8% higher compared to the previous trading session.In the United States, the consumer price index (CPI) for October was published, which showed an increase of 0.3% for the month and 3.2% year-on-year, which is in line with analysts' expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, confirming the stability of the labor market. GDP for the third quarter grew by 2.5% year-on-year. These data strengthen the dollar's position, but also support silver as a protective asset, as a moderate increase in inflation keeps demand for precious metals in an uncertain environment. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is expected to be released today at 15:30 (GMT+2). The indicator is projected at 72.5 points, which is higher than the previous value of 71.0 points. An improvement in consumer sentiment may support the demand for silver as a protective asset in a stable market.In Europe, the economy is showing signs of slowing down. Euro area GDP grew by 1.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, slightly below expectations. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 48.5 points, indicating a decrease in activity. The European Central Bank (ECB) has expressed concern about the slowdown in economic growth and its potential impact on global markets. In China, GDP increased by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, which supports interest in industrial metals, but the slowdown in the PMI to 50.2 indicates a potential limitation in demand for silver. On Monday, November 11, at 11:00 (GMT+2), data on industrial production in the euro area for September will be released. An increase of 0.2% is expected compared to the previous month. Positive data may boost industrial demand for silver.Resistance levels: 25.00, 25.50.Support levels: 24.00, ...
GBP/USD: pound continued to decline amid weak economic dataOn October 24, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at the level of 1.295, which is 0.077% lower compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to volatility against the background of UK economic data and expectations of the Bank of England's actions.The economic situation in the UK remains under pressure. The latest inflation data (CPI) for September showed a slowdown in growth to 5.9% in annual terms, which is slightly lower than the August 6.4%. However, inflation still remains well above the 2% target, which poses challenges for the Bank of England. The recently published business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector fell to 47.8 points, indicating a decrease in activity in this sector. Against this background, analysts predict that the Bank of England may suspend further rate hikes to support economic growth.On the other hand, the economic situation in the United States remains stable. The main focus of the market is on the upcoming publication of data on business activity in the service sector (PMI) and consumer spending. The inflation rate remains at 3.7% in annual terms, which coincides with analysts' expectations, and the unemployment rate is stable at 3.8%. This allows the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to maintain flexibility in further tightening monetary policy. The market expects that the coming data may confirm the need to maintain the current rate level.Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850.USD/CHF: the market expects further actions by the SNB against the background of a strong francOn October 24, 2024, the USD/CHF currency pair is trading at 0.8766, which is 0.36% higher compared to the previous trading session. The growth of the dollar against the Swiss franc is associated with market expectations regarding the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and global economic instability, which increases demand for the dollar as a safe haven asset.The Swiss franc, traditionally a safe haven currency, is demonstrating stability amid growing global uncertainty. However, challenges remain in the Swiss domestic market. The latest inflation data show that the consumer price level fell to 1.5% in annual terms in September, which is in line with the goals of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). At the same time, the SNB has lowered interest rates twice this year to support exporters and producers who are suffering from the high franc exchange rate. This decision is aimed at reducing pressure on the Swiss economy, but a strong franc still has a negative impact on the competitiveness of Swiss goods in foreign markets.Economists predict that the SNB will continue to adhere to a cautious policy in the coming months. Forecasts point to possible further intervention by the SNB in the event of increased pressure on the franc, which may lead to its weakening.Resistance levels: 0.8816, 0.8862.Support levels: 0.8727, 0.8680.USD/JPY: yen falls amid expectations of a tightening of the Bank of Japan's policyOn October 24, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading at 152.03, which is 0.25% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation is due to new data from Japan and market expectations regarding the future actions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ).The economic situation in Japan remains difficult. Recent inflation data (CPI) showed an annual growth of 3.2%, above the BOJ's 2% target, forcing the Central Bank to reconsider its soft monetary policy. The Bank of Japan, headed by Governor Kazuo Ueda, continues to give signals about a possible change in the yield curve control policy (YCC), which strengthens market expectations regarding tightening measures in the coming months. This may support the yen by weakening the dollar's position.At the same time, the domestic market is also affected by weak data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI), which fell to 48.3 points, indicating a reduction in industrial activity. Experts believe that the BOJ's next steps will largely depend on inflationary trends and the stability of the labor market in Japan.Resistance levels: 152.50, 153.10.Support levels: 151.50, 150.80.Silvers market analysisAs of October 24, 2024, the price of silver (XAG/USD) is $34.21 per troy ounce, which is 1.60% higher compared to the previous trading session. The price increase is due to increased demand for precious metals, both against the background of ongoing inflation, and in conditions of geopolitical instability and a weakening dollar.The economic situation in the United States has a noticeable impact on the value of silver. The US Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates at a high level, which contributes to some strengthening of the dollar. However, inflation remains at 3.7%, which forces investors to seek safe haven assets such as gold and silver. Important data that may affect the dynamics of silver are the upcoming publications on the consumer price index (CPI) and data on the US labor market. At the same time, any slowdown in the growth of the US economy may increase the demand for silver as a protective asset.In addition, the ongoing global challenges in the field of energy and industrial production support silver prices, as the metal is actively used in production and "green" energy. For example, increased demand for solar panels and electronic components strengthens silver's position in the market. It should also be noted that there is a shortage of supply caused by problems in the extraction of metal in a number of countries, which also supports the growth of its value.Resistance levels: $34.50 and $35.00.Support levels: $33.80 and ...
EUR/USD: markets expect ECB signals on further policyThe EUR/USD pair is near the 1.0510 level on October 18 and shows a slight increase of 0.24% compared to the previous trading session. Market participants expect the publication of inflation data in the eurozone and the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) on the interest rate, which has a significant impact on the dynamics of the pair.The economic situation in Europe remains under pressure: the inflation rate in September fell to 4.3% in annual terms, which is lower than the forecast of 4.5%, but this figure remains well above the target level of 2%. At the same time, core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, also fell to 4.5%. Markets expect the ECB to decide to keep the interest rate at 4.0%, however, signals may be given regarding further tightening of monetary policy, which puts pressure on the euro.In the United States, market participants' attention is focused on publications on the state of the economy, in particular, on data on the industrial business activity index (PMI), which in October may drop to 49.8 points, which is below the threshold of 50 points, indicating a reduction in activity. Earlier data on inflation in the United States turned out to be lower than expected: the consumer price index (CPI) in September amounted to 3.7% year-on-year against 3.6% a month earlier. In addition, the unemployment rate remains stable at 3.8%, which also supports the Fed's confidence in maintaining tight monetary policy.Resistance levels: 1.0540, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0480, 1.0420.AUD/USD: Aussie is strengthening amid rising economic indicatorsThe AUD/USD pair at the time of the trading session on October 18 shows an upward trend, holding near the 0.6380 mark, which is 0.67% more than in the previous session. The main driver of growth was the improvement of the situation in the commodity market, as well as the stabilization of the economic situation in Australia.The economic situation in Australia remains unstable, although there are signs of recovery. In particular, recent data on the unemployment rate for September showed a slight decrease from 3.7% to 3.6%, which was unexpected for analysts. In addition, retail sales showed an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis, which also exceeded the forecasts of economists who expected an increase of 0.2%. An important point is the growing business confidence index, which reached 10.2 points in October, which is the best result since the beginning of the year.One of the factors influencing the growth of the Australian dollar was the recent statement by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on a possible interest rate hike before the end of the year. The bank's management continues to monitor inflation indicators: the consumer price index (CPI) for the third quarter was 4.9%, which is a higher level than predicted (4.7%). At the same time, the RBA expressed its readiness to further tighten monetary policy if inflation continues to remain above target levels. At the same time, the market expects the publication of data on business activity in the Chinese manufacturing sector (PMI), which may have an impact on the dynamics of the AUD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6420, 0.6480.Support levels: 0.6350, 0.6280.NZD/USD: the pair is down on the back of news from New ZealandAs of October 18, the NZD/USD pair shows a downward trend, declining to the level of 0.5930. The pair lost about 0.45% compared to the previous trading session, due to a combination of weakness of the New Zealand dollar and the strengthening of the US currency.The New Zealand dollar continues to be under pressure due to weak macroeconomic statistics and expectations of a further slowdown in the country's economic growth. Last week, consumer price data (CPI) for the third quarter of 2024 were published, which showed a slowdown in inflation from 3.6% to 2.8% in annual terms. This figure turned out to be worse than market expectations at 3.0%, which increased concerns about an economic slowdown. In addition, the unemployment rate in New Zealand rose to 4.1% from 3.9% in August 2024, which also put pressure on the New Zealand dollar. Business economic confidence continues to remain at low levels, and the business activity index (PMI) for September fell to 48.6 points, signaling a slowdown in growth in the country's manufacturing sector.The Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) also signaled that it may revise its monetary policy towards easing, which added pressure on the currency. At the last meeting, the regulator left the key interest rate at 5.5%, but in his comments pointed to a possible rate cut in 2024 to stimulate the economy.Resistance levels: 0.5950, 0.6000.Support levels: 0.5900, 0.5870.Silver market analysisAs of October 18, 2024, silver quotes continue to show mixed dynamics, trading around the $22.30 per ounce mark after attempts to recover at the beginning of the week. The XAG/USD pair is correcting after a slight increase, which followed a sharp decline recorded last week. During the current trading session, the silver price increased by 0.45% compared to the previous session.The economic environment remains challenging, with an emphasis on expectations of central bank interest rate decisions and geopolitical factors. Investors continue to analyze the dynamics of inflation data from the United States, which affects the dollar's position, in turn affecting commodities such as silver. Last week, the US Federal Reserve announced the possibility of further easing monetary policy, which caused a wave of expectations among market participants. At the same time, inflation data (CPI) for September showed an increase in consumer prices by 0.4% on a monthly basis, which is slightly higher than forecasts, which supports the US currency and puts pressure on the precious metals market.On the international stage, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a key factor affecting silver. Conflict situations, in particular around Israel and Lebanon, increase uncertainty in the markets and stimulate demand for protective assets such as gold and silver. At the same time, China announced new measures to stimulate the economy, including support for industrial production, which could potentially increase demand for industrial metals, including silver.Resistance levels: 22.50, 22.70.Support levels: 22.10, ...