Aave Trading forecasts and signals - page 3

This week, Cred and DonAlt, the authors of the Technical Roundup mailing list, discuss how the majors (BTC/USD, ETH/USD) got to the resistance levels. We will also talk about the breakthroughs of some altcoins, in particular XRP, Solana and Aave. We will not ignore the dynamics of Ethereum.Bitcoin Looms for Trend FollowersBitcoin / dollars closed above $45 thousand, we can say, according to the weekly tradition. And this is very important. Not only the fact that the average support level for the week fell at $45 thousand, but also the fact that such a closure raised the price above the 21-week moving average – a popular indicator for detecting a trend on a high timeframe. The same argument applies to the 200-day moving average. Both indicators converge around $45 thousand in tandem with the above-mentioned weekly level.Although Cred and DonAlt do not trade on moving averages, it is useful to have an idea of what positions can be taken by participants following the trend. Given that most systems built on a trend on a high timeframe are moving into a bullish phase, it is important to take into account the probability of a pattern failure. In this case, a return below $45 thousand will lead to the fact that many of the participants will be out of the game and, probably, the downward spiral will spin up to $38-$40 thousand.In a broader sense, the nearest support level is at $45 thousand, and the nearest resistance level is at $49.1 thousand (or even closer to $50 thousand). As previously stated, the area around $50 thousand is quite dangerous from the point of view of calming the dynamics. If the bears are right, then this area will be the main candidate for a lower maximum. If the bulls are right, but the market will show a red candle before reaching a record high, the area of $50 thousand is most likely more suitable for this than others.As a rule, the market looks strong until the opposite is proven, but new long positions seem less attractive as the market approaches the $50 thousand mark. If they are going to throw us, then this denouement is already somewhere close. Support at the level of $38 - $40 thousand in the style of "get rich or die", the nearest support is at $45 thousand, and resistance at $50 thousand.Ethereum Dutifully Follows Bitcoin  The ETH/USD pair is at the resistance level ($3240-$3430). The pair with BTC is somewhere in the same range. Little has changed for Ethereum.In last week's issue, we drew parallels between Bitcoin for $50 thousand and Ethereum for ~$3300 dollars as areas where new long positions are the least favorable in terms of the risk/benefit ratio. These concerns are also applicable to this week: now the ETH/USD pair is at the resistance level.Closing on a high timeframe above $3,500 is likely to pave the way to new record highs, and it will do so taking into account the risks. Positioning now means buying at the resistance level in the hope that it will be broken, and it is still unclear whether a pullback will happen. Positioning above $3,500 would mean buying power, and the level itself indicates a clear disability in this scenario, i.e. a close below ~$3,300 will no longer be bullish.It doesn't look so weighty, but from the point of view of chances, entering at the resistance level compared to buying above it, is a completely different setup. According to traders, it is the latter scenario that should be followed.If the market pulls back, the nearest support level for the pair with USD will be found at $2750-$2890.DonAlt shillit XRPDonAlt, aka David, kept talking about long XRP positions from the very lows, and that's why we decided to include XRP in this week's issue.Let's start, perhaps, with a pair of BTC. Here the installation is quite simple. The cyclical minimum is at the level of 1530 sats, while the price forms an unsuccessful breakdown pattern and closes above it. The next resistance level is 2980-3270 sats, and this area has been tested many times already. Accordingly, it is quite reasonable to assume a breakdown of this level and a price movement to 4322-4650 sats (the next resistance level).Next – the USD pair. The price bounced off the support level at $0.60 and closed above $1. So far, there are no convincing resistance levels to new highs. A drop below $1 is likely to cancel out the bullish mood.What about the context? The market literally exploded when the SEC charged Ripple Labs and two of its executives for allegedly offering unregistered securities. The market survived and has even been growing since then. If this news was not enough to bury the token, then what can I say? At the same time, any flow of positive news is likely to accelerate the rally. Any negative news, in turn, can hardly be worse than this announcement itself.The charts look good, and the discussions are rather in a positive direction. It is unlikely that the token will fall below $1. In turn, DonAlt would prefer to observe a bullish run up to new highs.Summer in the rays of "Solana"Solana pulled ahead and set new record highs for its pairs with BTC and USD.Trading on breakouts has a not so positive reputation in the crypto industry, but it is not the worst option if you know what to do. The main advantage of trading on breakouts (if you do everything "correctly", whatever that means) is that these settings usually impose very clear price and time invalidations.If the market breaks out, especially if the breakout happens before reaching new record highs, the last thing it should do is hang near the breakout level and return soon for retesting. Both are red flags. Good breakouts, as a rule, do not roll back.With this in mind, the levels of disability for trading on breakouts are quite clear. Any movement back below the breakout point will be a signal to exit. In some cases, it will be quite reasonable to get out of the race a little in advance.The breakout level for the Solana/USD pair is at $44-47. As long as the market is far from this area, we are waiting for the trend to continue towards the goals with a round number. Your best entry helpers are lower timeframes and correlated pullbacks throughout the market.Aave restores support  If altcoins continue to grow, we should expect that the DeFi case will work out (against the background of how well things are going with Solana, Terra and other projects). The Aave/USD pair also demonstrates an interesting structure.The price regained support at the level of $324-$366. It was a consolidation that preceded the weekly lower low. At these levels, you can often see strong resistance, but it was all absorbed. Now the level of support is clearly felt.There will probably be some friction near the maximum of $450-$470, but the key assumption is that as long as the restored weekly structure ($324-$366) remains, new highs are more likely than the continuation of the bearish phase.The market is quite far from this area, so a pullback across the entire market would be ideal, in which the Aave/USD pair will return to the support ...