EUR/USD Trading forecasts and signals - page 2

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on April 1, 2025The prolonged uncertainty surrounding US trade policy continues to put pressure on global markets. According to the IMF, the longer there is uncertainty about future tariff barriers, the more negative this could have for economic growth. The expected introduction of reciprocal import duties on the "Day of America's Liberation" casts doubt on the prospects for sustainable GDP expansion in the United States. Against this background, recession risks continue to increase, which creates additional pressure on the US dollar and supports the recovery movements of the EUR/USD pair.Leading financial institutions are consistently revising forecasts for the likelihood of an economic downturn in the United States. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast from 20% to 35%, while JP Morgan and Moody's Analytics analysts estimate the risks at 40%. Such adjustments are associated with increasing uncertainty ahead of the launch of new trade restrictions, which may significantly increase the average level of customs duties from the current 2.2% to historical highs. This situation seriously complicates long-term planning for both businesses and consumers, undermining confidence in the economic outlook.The Trump administration sets two difficult-to-reconcile goals through the introduction of additional duties. On the one hand, the government expects to increase budget revenues to compensate for the extension of tax benefits. On the other hand, it seeks to put pressure on trading partners, forcing them to lower their own tariff barriers. However, the temporary nature of the planned measures, which are due to take effect on April 2, raises questions about their effectiveness as a tool for sustainable replenishment of the state treasury.Analysts are particularly concerned about the possible reaction of the main US trading partners to the new restrictions. Traditionally, countries with significant trade surpluses with America have used these excess funds to purchase Treasury bonds. Over the past decade, the volume of foreign investment in treasuries has grown from 6.1 trillion to 8.5 trillion dollars, with Japan remaining the largest holders with 1.06 trillion, China with 759 billion, Luxembourg, representing European investment funds, with 424 billion, and Canada with 379 billion dollars. In the event of a reduction in these investments, the market may face an increase in government bond yields, which will create additional difficulties for the American economy and may force the Fed to accelerate the pace of monetary policy easing.There is no consensus among analysts about the prospects for the US currency. Goldman Sachs expects the dollar to weaken against the background of a more active reduction in Fed rates, while Wells Fargo experts, on the contrary, predict a strengthening of USD by 1.5-11%, depending on the reaction of international partners to the new trade restrictions.For the EUR/USD pair, the expected volatility creates potential trading opportunities. A breakout of resistance in the area of 1.0845 may open the way for building up long positions, while consolidation below 1.0780 will create the prerequisites for short trades. The current situation requires special attention to the development of events after April 2 and the reaction of key participants in international trade, which can significantly change existing market ...

USA: inflation and labor market expectationsToday, traders who prefer forex trading based on the news are focused on two news items from the United States – the ISM industrial business activity index for March and the JOLTs report on the number of vacancies for February. According to forecasts, the ISM index will remain at the level of the previous month, but regional data indicate a possible decline amid trade uncertainty. The Federal Reserve pays special attention to JOLTs data as an indicator of labor demand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions.The Eurozone: inflation and the labor marketPublished inflation data in the leading economies of the eurozone turned out to be mixed: France, Spain and Germany recorded a slowdown, while in Italy inflation turned out to be higher than expected. Overall, the HICP index for the eurozone is likely to decline from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms, driven by lower prices for energy and services. Despite this, the ECB remains inclined to lower rates in April. Unemployment data is also expected to be published today, which is projected to remain at 6.2%, indicating the stability of the labor market.Denmark and Sweden: Wages and PMIIn Denmark, data on wage growth in the private sector for the first quarter will be published. In the fourth quarter of 2024, nominal salaries increased by 4.6% year-on-year, providing a 2.9% increase in real incomes. Wage growth is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2025, but will be lower than in the previous year.In Sweden, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector for March is expected to be around 53 points, which corresponds to the level of the last five months. In February, the figure was 53.5, with all components except inventories showing growth, including new orders, production, and employment.Overview of global marketsAsian markets: Central Bank policy and business activityThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the key rate at 4.10%, which was in line with expectations. The regulator expressed confidence in a gradual decrease in inflation, but noted the risks of a slowdown in domestic demand. Financial markets have already priced in two or three rate cuts before the end of 2025.In Japan, a quarterly Tankan survey was published, the results of which were mixed. The index of business sentiment of large industrial companies decreased from 14 to 12, which was the lowest value for the year. At the same time, the service sector showed improvement, with the indicator rising from 33 to 35, reaching its highest level since 1991, boosted by increased consumer spending and a record influx of foreign tourists. Inflation expectations in Japan continue to rise, which supports the Bank of Japan's plans to further tighten policy.In China, the Caixin private business activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector rose to 51.2 points (against the forecast of 51.1), which was the highest value since November. The growth was driven by improved demand conditions and an increase in foreign orders to a maximum in 11 months.European markets: inflation and GDPIn Germany, the HICP index dropped to 2.3% year-on-year (versus the forecast of 2.4%), mainly due to falling energy prices (-2.8% versus -1.6% in February). A slowdown in service sector inflation (to 3.4% from 3.8%) may be a key factor for the ECB when deciding on a rate cut.Danish GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 was revised up to 1.8% QoQ (from 1.6% QoQ in the preliminary estimate), and annual economic growth was 3.7% (+0.1 percentage points to the previous forecast). The pharmaceutical sector continues to make the main contribution to growth, but other industries are expected to become more active in 2025.In Norway, organizations representing the interests of workers in industry have agreed on a 4.4% wage increase in 2025, which is slightly lower than Norges Bank's forecast (4.5%). This confirms the trend towards a slowdown in wage growth, despite a stable labor market, which opens up opportunities for a gradual easing of monetary policy.Stock markets: dynamics and expectationsGlobal stock markets came under pressure again yesterday, but the dynamics differed from previous sessions due to trade wars. In the US, major indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones is up 1.0%, the S&P 500 is up 0.6%, while the Nasdaq is down 0.1% and the Russell 2000 index of small companies is down 0.6%.The growth of the American market was quite broad: 21 out of 25 industry indexes ended the day in positive territory. However, the predominance of defensive sectors indicates that investors prefer safer assets, despite the improvement in sentiment. Volatility (VIX) has increased, even despite the rise of the S&P 500, which signals continued caution.Asian markets are mostly growing today, especially in export-oriented South Korea and Taiwan. European futures are also trading higher, while American futures are showing a decline.Currency and debt marketsThe US bond market ended the day with an increase in yields on the short section of the curve: 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 5 bps, and the yield on 10-year UST was 4.21%. The rumors about the ECB's tougher stance supported the yield on 2-year German bonds, but did not have a significant impact on the euro exchange rate. The EUR/USD pair gradually declined to 1.08.USD/JPY continues to consolidate near 150.00. The EUR/SEK pair rose to 11.86, partly due to factors related to the end of the month. The Norwegian krone (NOK) initially weakened, but ended the day unchanged against the euro at 11.36. In the future, Scandinavian currencies will react to trade tariff decisions, while the Swedish krona (SEK) may be vulnerable to dividend ...

Eurozone: Focus on inflation in GermanyToday, the main focus of investors and analysts is on German inflation data for March, which anticipates the overall figures for the eurozone expected tomorrow.Earlier, inflation in France and Spain was below forecasts, which is a positive signal for the European Central Bank (ECB). It will be important to see if the same trend is reflected in Germany.According to forecasts, the eurozone HICP index will decrease from 2.3% YoY to 2.1% YoY, mainly due to lower inflation in the energy and services sectors.China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI – is growth possible?In China, the Industrial Business Activity Index (Caixin PMI) is expected to be published today. The consensus forecast assumes a slight decrease from 50.8 to 50.6, but there is a possibility of strengthening the result. This is due to improved data on other indicators, such as the Yicai index and rising metal prices in March.Denmark: Correction of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024Revised Danish GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published today. The preliminary report showed solid economic growth of 1.6% QoQ. However, quick estimates are always accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty, so it is important to understand how significant the possible adjustments will be.Sweden: Completion of wage negotiationsMajor industry salary negotiations are due to expire in Sweden today, which creates additional pressure on the negotiating parties. Initially, it was proposed to conclude a three-year agreement at the level of 7.7%, which is lower than expected and may indicate the risks of a downward revision of wage forecasts.Australia: Reserve Bank to keep interest rate at 4.10%The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to leave its key interest rate at 4.10% tomorrow morning, in line with market consensus. At the last meeting, the RBA began a cycle of rate cuts, but did not give clear signals of further easing. Currently, the markets forecast 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, but the probability of maintaining the current level tomorrow is estimated at 90%.Japan: Expectations for the Tankan report and the policy of the Bank of JapanTonight, the Bank of Japan will publish the quarterly Tankan business survey. The PMI indexes indicate steady growth in the first quarter, but the significant decline in March raises questions. The Tankan data is particularly important in the context of the Bank of Japan's future policy: positive results may strengthen expectations for further rate hikes. The spring wage negotiations also confirm the trend towards tightening monetary policy.Main focus of the week: trade duties and their impactThis week, the markets are monitoring the development of the situation around tariffs, especially from the United States. New widespread tariffs are expected to be announced on Wednesday, as well as possible retaliatory measures from other countries. At night, information was received that the United States could impose restrictions against "all countries," which contradicts earlier statements. In addition, the possibility of new sanctions against Russian oil buyers is being discussed.The final event of the week will be the US employment report for March, which is scheduled to be published on Friday.Macroeconomic events and market newsUSA: The core PCE index for February rose by 0.4% mom (consensus: 0.3% mom), which is higher than expected. At the same time, the overall PCE index showed an increase of 0.3% mom, in line with forecasts. The real volume of consumer spending increased by only 0.1% mom, which indicates a restrained mood among consumers.China: The official composite PMI rose to 51.4 in March from 51.1 in February. The index in the non–manufacturing sector rose to 50.8 (from 50.4), reflecting a recovery in the services sector, while the manufacturing PMI reached an annual maximum of 50.5.Norway: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.0% in March, as predicted. The number of new vacancies decreased slightly, which may indicate a moderate weakening in demand for labor. At the same time, the growth of retail sales in the last three months (by 1.3%) confirms the positive trends in consumption.Japan: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's March meeting showed that participants recognize the importance of recent wage increases as a factor for further rate increases. However, concern was expressed about the weakness of investment among small and medium-sized enterprises, which casts doubt on the sustainability of current wage growth.Geopolitical factors: trade conflicts and sanctionsUS President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened to impose tariffs from 25% to 50% on imports from countries that buy Russian oil if Moscow does not take steps to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. This statement followed Putin's words about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. In the coming days, Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Putin, which may determine the further vector of the situation.Stock markets: going into defensive assetsGlobal stock indexes closed in the "red zone" on Friday as investors reduced their risk appetite ahead of the weekend.US index results on Friday:• Dow Jones: -1,7%• S&P 500: -2,0%• Nasdaq: -2,7%• Russell 2000: -2,1%The negative sentiment continues in Asia, where the Japanese yen acts as a defensive asset. The Japanese Nikkei index has declined by more than 4% at the time of writing, and the exchanges of exporting countries are also showing a significant drop.Stock index futures in Europe and the United States point to continued declines, along with falling yields at the long end of the U.S. Treasury bond curve.Dynamics of the currency and debt marketsU.S. government bonds ended last week higher as PCE data, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and threats of new tariffs from Trump sparked caution in the markets. Stocks in the United States have fallen sharply, especially in the technology sector.Currency movements• The JPY strengthened against the major G10 currencies• EUR/USD rose above 1.1080• EUR/NOK rose to 11.35• EUR/SEK ended the week at 11.84This week, the key factor remains the issue of new tariffs, which will determine the dynamics of global ...

FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 31, 2025The rapid growth of gold and the simultaneous weakening of the US dollar have a common root — the growing wave of anti-globalization. The decision of Western countries to freeze Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves in 2022 was a turning point that forced central banks around the world to reconsider their strategy and pay more attention to the gold reserves, especially for countries outside the Western camp. The growing demand for gold reduces interest in the greenback and helps strengthen EUR/USD.Donald Trump's policy of "restoring America's greatness" is unexpectedly undermining confidence in the dollar. The more actively Washington uses sanctions and protectionist measures, the stronger the euro grows. In 2025, the US dollar is no longer perceived as a safe haven asset. Investors are looking for alternatives — the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and, of course, gold.The aggressive US trade policy is alienating even traditional allies. The question is whether the largest holders of US government debt, such as Japan and China, will want to start diversifying reserves in retaliation for tariffs. If this happens, the pressure on the dollar will increase.Previously, in times of crisis, the dollar was strengthening and the stock market was falling. Now, the S&P 500 and USD are showing synchronous movement. Such a correlation of the US currency and the stock index looks, at least, illogical. The explanation is simple: the dollar is losing its "safe haven" status, and foreign investors are reducing investments in American assets. For example, Europeans have lost about 13% since the beginning of the year due to the fall in both US stocks and the dollar exchange rate.Trump's actions are pushing the US economy towards a dangerous scenario — a combination of stagnation and inflation. Consumer confidence is falling, and employment forecasts are deteriorating. Goldman Sachs expects that the Fed will have to ease policy more actively in 2025 — not two, but three times.The last straw may be the introduction of universal tariffs, which have been discussed again in the White House. If earlier Trump calmed the markets by talking about "soft" measures, now investors are nervous again, getting rid of both the dollar and stocks.Long positions on EUR/USD formed in the 1.0735-1.0755 zone look promising. Even though inflation is slowing in Europe, capital flight from the dollar is supporting the euro. In the event of a breakdown of the 1.0845 resistance, the uptrend may accelerate, paving the way for more significant ...

Inflation data and economic activity in the USAThis week, the February report on the Personal consumer Spending Index (PCE), which is the preferred indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System (FRS), will be published in the United States. In addition, the revised consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for March is expected to be released. Although revised data rarely have a significant impact on markets, in conditions of political uncertainty, it is worth paying increased attention to them.Inflation in the eurozone: expectations of a decline in indicatorsIn the eurozone, investors' attention will be focused on the March inflation data in Spain and France, the publication of which precedes the pan-European HICP index, which will be released next week. Inflation in the euro area is projected to decrease from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms, due to easing price pressures on energy and services. Core inflation is also expected to decrease from 2.6% to 2.4%.Sweden: wage negotiations and retail salesNegotiations on a new wage agreement are continuing in Sweden, which is expected to be concluded by March 31. The latest proposal suggests a three-year agreement with a 7.7% salary increase, which is lower than expected. This may indicate possible downside risks in salary growth forecasts. The retail sales report for February will also be released this week. Sales showed steady growth last year, but the January decline and low consumer confidence may signal a continuation of the downward trend.China: restoration of industrial productionIn China, official PMI indices for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors for March will be released on Monday. The consensus forecast assumes a moderate increase in indicators, but a more significant rise is likely, given the positive dynamics of the Emerging Industries PMI index and rising metal prices in March. This indicates a possible recovery in activity in the industrial sector.Markets and macroeconomic developmentsUSA: comments from the Fed representativesIn the United States, Susan Collins, a representative of the Boston Fed, said that an increase in inflation due to the introduction of tariffs is inevitable, but its duration remains uncertain, and monetary policy should remain unchanged. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that high uncertainty could force businesses to temporarily suspend activity, which also requires a cautious approach to monetary policy.Gold and commodity marketsGold prices reached $3,076.79 per ounce as the introduction of new tariffs in the United States, geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in global economic growth led to increased demand for defensive assets.Japan: rising inflation reinforces expectations of rate hikesJapan has published data on the consumer price index in Tokyo for March. The core CPI index (excluding fresh food) rose to 2.4% YoY, exceeding the consensus forecast (2.2%). This reinforces expectations of further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan. We forecast two rate hikes of 25 bps each before the end of the year, the next of which is likely to take place in July.USA: revised GDP and reaction to new tariffsIn the United States, the revised GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was adjusted upward to 2.4% (consensus forecast: 2.3%) due to a less pronounced negative contribution from inventory changes. The number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits remained stable.The announcement of the introduction of 25% tariffs on cars caused a mixed reaction among US trading partners. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that trade relations with the United States have changed and a review of agreements is required. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the development of measures to protect the interests of the EU.Eurozone: credit momentum and ECB rhetoricIn February, lending in the eurozone continued to grow: household lending increased to 1.5% (from 1.3% in January), and to the corporate sector — to 2.2% (from 2.0%). This indicates that the effects of lower interest rates are being transferred to the real economy. However, the credit impulse, estimated at 1.17% of GDP, remains low by historical standards, despite the ECB's rate cut of 150 bps over the past year.The speeches of the ECB representatives were mixed. Many members of the Governing Council stressed the inflationary risks associated with tariffs, indicating a gradual shift by the regulator towards a more cautious approach.Norway: Central bank policyThe Bank of Norway left its key interest rate at 4.50%, but maintained a relaxed outlook. Two rate cuts are expected in 2025 and a possible cut in June under favorable conditions. We are revising the forecast for 2025 and expect two rate cuts (in September and December), three cuts in 2026 and a final cut in 2027 to 3.00%.Stock markets: reactions to new tariffsStock markets declined, but not as significantly as might have been expected after the announcement of the new tariffs. The S&P 500 lost 0.3%, while the European Stoxx 600 declined 0.5%. Over the past two weeks, American stocks have outperformed European stocks by 2 percentage points, but we recommend focusing on the fundamental factors that continue to favor Europe.The protective sectors showed the greatest growth — consumer goods and healthcare, while the technology sector (Nvidia), industry (automobiles) and energy declined. It is important to consider the ability of companies to price in the new environment. For example, Volkswagen shares declined by only 1.5%, while Stellantis fell by 4.2%, BMW by 2.5%, and French supplier Valeo lost 8% after announcing the need to raise prices due to tariffs.The European real estate sector grew by 2% due to lower European bond yields amid tariff news.The foreign exchange marketEUR/USD remains in the range of 1.08–1.09 with a slight advantage of the bulls. European interest rates have changed little, but the government bond yield curve continues to show an upward trend. The Swedish krona (SEK) exchange rate remains stable, but in the short term, upward risks in cross-rates are ...

FOREX fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on March 28, 2025As America's Liberation Day approaches, markets are cautious about the possible imposition of 25% tariffs on car imports.Despite Bloomberg forecasts of a potential 0.5 percentage point decline in German GDP, the EUR/USD pair is showing resilience and is stable around the 1.08 mark.Euro support factors1. Postponing the introduction of measures: UBS analysts admit a scenario in which the US administration may extend the deadline for making a final decision, postponing the real start of a trade conflict.2. Buffered stocks of car dealers: The availability of 2-3-month stocks from European exporters creates a temporary safety cushion for the EU economy.3. Fiscal stimulus in Germany: Planned budget support measures (estimated by Deutsche Bank at €1 trillion) may offset some of the negative effect of trade restrictions.The largest car suppliers in the USARisks to the American economy- According to Morgan Stanley estimates, the introduction of duties will lead to an increase in car prices in the United States by 11-12%, which:- Will increase inflationary pressure- Will limit the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy- As noted by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Susan Collins, such measures create a dilemma for the central bank, forced to choose between controlling inflation and supporting the economy.The dynamics of American inflationThe current positioning of EUR/USD indicates:- Formation of a potential base in the 1.0735-1.0755 zone- The possibility of a breakdown of resistance in the area of 1.0820 to confirm the upward momentumConclusions and recommendations1. The short-term stability of the euro is explained by:- Expectation of postponement of trade measures- Training of European exporters- The difference in macroeconomic cycles (US slowdown vs EU fiscal support)2. The prospect of medium-term consolidation looks preferable, however:- The final decision on tariffs (expected on April 2) remains a key risk- The Fed's reaction to the inflationary consequences may change the balance of powerA trading strategy involves- Gradual build-up of long positions while consolidating above 1.0820- Installation of protective orders below 1.0735- Monitoring of official comments on trade ...

EUR/USD: ECB comments shift market sentimentThe single European currency is showing a steady strengthening in the EUR/USD pair at auction in Asia, offsetting the losses of the previous day, when the instrument updated the local lows recorded on March 5. The pair is currently trying to overcome resistance around 1.0780, and bidders continue to look for new catalysts for further movement amid growing geopolitical and economic tensions. One of the key factors is the harsh protectionism of the United States: the White House administration has confirmed its intention to impose 25% duties on all imports of passenger cars, as well as on the most important components - from engines to transmissions and electronic systems.Additional attention of market participants is focused on the statements of representatives of the European Central Bank. Piero Cipollone, a member of the ECB Governing Council, said that the situation is in favor of a softer monetary policy: lower energy prices, rising real yields, the strengthening of the euro and international trade tensions create reasonable conditions for a return to a rate below 2.00%. In turn, the head of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, stressed the need for a pragmatic approach, focusing on projected inflation rather than hypothetical neutral rate levels. In March, the ECB lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points: the base rate was set at 2.65%, the deposit rate at 2.50%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%. The next ECB meeting will be held on April 17 and, judging by the rhetoric of officials, it may again bring decisions in favor of easing.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0654.USD/CAD: local weakening of the bullish trendThe USD/CAD pair is holding slightly above the key support level of 1.4257 and shows an increased likelihood of its breakdown downwards, as the Canadian currency strengthens amid growing concerns about US trade duties.Investors are increasingly considering a compromise scenario between Washington and Ottawa that could lead to an easing or partial lifting of restrictive measures, as well as analyzing Canada's retaliatory actions, including "mirror duties" as a tool to stabilize market sentiment. Additional support for the Canadian dollar is provided by confident macro statistics: in February, the consumer price index added 1.1% month—on-month, exceeding forecasts of 0.6%, and reached 2.6% year-on-year against expectations of 2.2%, which increases the chances of the Bank of Canada maintaining the current interest rate at 2.75% following the meeting on April 16.Resistance levels: 1.4480, 1.4665.Support levels: 1.4257, 1.4150, 1.3950.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair continues to move in a steady upward channel, holding above the psychological mark of $3,000,0 per ounce against a confident fundamental background, contributing to an increase in interest in gold as a defensive asset.Last week it became known that the Chinese authorities launched a pilot project allowing ten leading insurance companies in the country to carry out operations with precious metals through standard contractual schemes. The first deal under the new initiative was concluded on March 25 between China Life Insurance and China Pacific Life Insurance and was a series of applications for spot trading in gold. Despite the limit of 1.0% of the total capital available for participation in such activities, the program may significantly increase interest in instruments related to precious metals, since the total revenues of the insurance sector of China have already exceeded 700 billion dollars. According to analysts at Bank of America Corp., the potential volume of demand from these organizations may reach 300 tons, which corresponds to about 6.5% of the global annual turnover in the gold market.Resistance levels: 3060.0, 3170.0.Support levels: 3000.0, 2860.0.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to rise modestly, remaining within the upward correction and consolidating above the level of $ 73.00 per barrel.Optimism in the market is formed against the background of the latest decisions of the OPEC+ alliance, suggesting a gradual easing of production restrictions in the total volume of 2.2 million barrels per day over the next 18 months. Although April was supposed to be the starting point of this process, the parameters of the first stage have already been adjusted due to the systematic excess of existing quotas by a number of countries. The updated production growth schedule clarifies that almost all parties to the agreement, with the exception of Algeria, are required to compensate for past deviations, which reduced the total volume of the April increase to 88.0 thousand barrels per day. Nevertheless, representatives of the cartel do not rule out a return to a tougher policy as early as June, if the recovery in demand from China turns out to be weaker than expected: recall that in 2024, China provided only 34.0% of the global increase in oil consumption (500.0 thousand barrels per day), against 50.0% in previous years. According to current forecasts, additional demand from the Chinese economy may decrease to 300.0 thousand barrels in 2025.Resistance levels: 73.70, 77.10.Support levels: 72.10, ...

Key economic events and market trendsUSA: GDP revision and tariff impactIn the second half of the day, a revised estimate of GDP growth will be published in the United States. However, no significant impact on the markets is expected.The main news was the announcement by the US president of the introduction of a 25% tariff on imports of foreign cars and auto parts from April 2. The move has raised concerns among trading partners, including the EU and Canada, which are considering retaliatory measures. The impact of these tariffs on inflation also remains in focus, as they may increase price pressures, leading to a review of the Fed's policy.In addition, in February, orders for durable goods increased by 0.9% against the forecast of -1.0%. However, this did not lead to significant movements in the market.Eurozone: credit activity and ECB policyData on monetary aggregates and lending will be published in the eurozone today. In the context of the ECB's ongoing debate on monetary policy rigidity, credit growth data will be key. In recent months, lending to the private sector has increased to 2% YoY, but the momentum (the difference between new and repaid loans) remains stable at 1%, indicating continued policy rigidity.In addition, representatives of the ECB, including Isabelle Schnabel, will speak today, which may give additional signals on the future policy course.Norway: Norges Bank rate decisionNorges Bank is expected to lower its key rate to 4.25%, despite the fact that market expectations estimate the probability of this step at only 25-30%. Inflation in February was higher than expected, which could support a tougher policy. However, Norges Bank is likely to focus on slowing inflation, low capacity utilization and maintaining a restrictive policy, which may be an argument in favor of lowering interest rates. We also expect the forecasts for 2025-2028 to be revised towards two rate cuts in 2025.United Kingdom: lower inflation and prospects for lower ratesUK inflation in February was lower than expected: the overall index was 2.8% YoY (forecast: 3.0%), while core inflation fell to 3.5% YoY (forecast: 3.6%). These data reinforce expectations of a possible rate cut by the Bank of England at the next meeting, especially if inflation remains within expectations in the April report.In the political sphere, the Government's spring budget was in line with expectations, confirming its commitment to fiscal stability measures. The initial reaction of the bond market was sharp, but by the end of the day, the yield on 10-year Gilts had dropped by only 1-3 bps.Sweden: worsening economic sentimentThe latest NIER economic survey showed a decline in confidence in the economy, especially among consumers, indicating continued weak sentiment. The planned price increase in March was higher than normal, which increases concerns about stagflation.The minutes of the Riksbank meeting reflected a balanced approach: despite high inflation, the bank considers its acceleration as temporary. Overall, the current policy course remains balanced, but the market may overestimate expectations for a rate hike, especially in the face of rising inflation.Geopolitics: tensions between Russia and UkraineThe ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine have reached an impasse, as the sides accuse each other of violating the agreements. The EU has rejected Russia's terms of the Black Sea agreement, raising uncertainty. A meeting of the leaders of the EU and Ukraine will take place in Paris today, where the issue of security will be discussed.Stock market: reaction to trade barriersUS stock markets closed lower amid news about Trump's tariffs. IndexThe S&P 500 fell 1.1%, but the equally weighted S&P 500 declined only 0.2%, indicating targeted sales in the automotive sector, including Tesla and other manufacturers.Despite the negative sentiment, US futures are trading with a slight increase, while European markets are showing weakness.Currency and debt market: expectations of Norges Bank's decisionAmid rising geopolitical risks and tariff news, EUR/USD initially declined, but then recovered, trading just below 1.08. The Scandinavian currencies moved in different directions, with a slight weakening of NOK/SEK.Today, the key event will be Norges Bank's rate decision, and despite the uncertainty, we see the likelihood of a 25bp ...

ECB Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos believes that the EU economy will not reach the pre-pandemic level until the end of the second half of 2023.The governor of the Spanish central bank has joined the chorus of ECB policymakers calling for the first rate hike in more than a decade to curb the highest inflation rate since the creation of the euro and prevent price increases from taking hold.The ECB is lagging behind global competitors in raising borrowing costs and is even still pouring money into the financial system through its asset purchase program, a legacy of a decade of fighting too low inflation.Inflation in the eurozone reached a record 7.5% in April, and was well above the ECB's 2% target. Now the ECB's key rate is 0%, 0.25% on margin loans, and minus 0.5% on deposits.The official also believes that a gradual increase in rates should be expected, especially if the medium-term inflation forecast remains at the current target level.According to de Cos, the completion of the bond purchase program should be completed at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and soon after that the first interest rate increase will follow. The gradual abolition of extraordinary monetary incentives is adequate in the current ...

The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...

Recently, I see that more and more traders are starting to switch from Forex to binary options. This is understandable, because it is easier to trade binary options, and profitability, of course, is also higher. In general, I myself gave up Forex in favor of binary options 6 years ago. But since the topic is so relevant now, let's figure out which is better – Forex or binary options, comparing the pros and cons of both types of earnings.Forex and binary options: a brief comparisonGet and sign up: profitabilitySo, let's start our comparison with such an important point as profitability. When trading binary options, the profit ranges from 75 to 95% of the invested investments. In Forex, the profit is unlimited. However, in order to get a high percentage of earnings on Forex, you will have to correctly predict large price fluctuations, whereas only 1 point is enough on binary options. I think there is no need to explain that binary options trading is more profitable in the long run.Read more: What are binary options?Is risk a noble cause? What is the difference between Forex and binary options?The next difference between binary options and forex is the risks themselves. Forex trading involves constant manual work with risks due to the correct placement of orders for opening and closing transactions (stop losses and take profits). On the one hand, this is convenient, since it is always possible to rearrange orders and wait for the very moment when it will be possible to make a profit or breakeven… But on the other hand, as a rule, a Forex trader needs to have an impressive deposit in order to withstand long drawdowns. In addition, the trader is constantly experiencing psychological pressure (whether he closed the deal on time, whether he placed orders correctly, etc.). It is also important to say that traders who do not have large deposits are forced to use the broker's leverage, which multiplies not only the profits received, but also, of course, losses.Binary options brokers relieve traders of psychological responsibility for placing orders. It is enough for a trader to decide on:the size of the bet (as a rule, its size ranges from $5 to $25),the end time of the transaction.Thus, all work with risks consists in trading with a minimum percentage of the deposit. So, in fact, Forex differs from binary options only by a risk management system. It is not enough for a forex trader to open a deal in the right direction, he also needs to calculate how many points the chart will pass and where to put a stop loss / take profit correctly.Read more: What is Forex in simple wordsAnalysis is the mainThe same tools are used for analysis and forecasting in both types of trading: indicators, news, volumes, price patterns, etc. It turns out that, other things being equal, it is easier to do analysis for binary options, since it is enough to correctly predict only the direction of the price. In Forex, in addition to the direction, as I wrote above, you need to determine the approximate number of points in order to correctly place orders to close transactions.Time is moneyThis point can be interpreted in two ways. For someone, it is important how much time trading takes in total, for someone this moment is not fundamental. In any case, it is clear that Forex takes much more time than binary options. After all, you need to constantly work with orders to influence the outcome of the transaction.Number of assetsThe most popular assets on binary options and Forex are currency pairs and precious metals (in particular, EUR/USD and Gold). However, if the choice is limited for a Forex trader, then a binary options trader has alternative options. This:stocks,indexes,futures,the so-called "pairs" (the ratio of shares of one company to shares of another, for example: google/apple).Thus, a larger number of potentially profitable trades will be available to you on binary options.Read more: What is a spread in trading Forex and stocksOnce again about money: commissions and spreadsActually, the difference between Forex and binary options is also the trading conditions themselves. Forex traders must necessarily pay the broker the spread from each open transaction.  What is a spread? The spread is the difference between the purchase price of an asset (bid) and the sale price of an asset (ask) (roughly speaking, the same difference can be seen at any currency exchange point). At the same time, traders do not pay any commissions to the binary options broker, either from investments or profits.Lend a shoulder to a friend: leverageA very important point, in my opinion. Applies only to Forex, but nevertheless it is important to pronounce it. The minimum lot (financial contract) on Forex is $100,000. Naturally, an ordinary person cannot start trading with such amounts. In this regard, the Forex broker is ready to provide its clients with leverage. For example, with a deposit of $1,000, the broker is ready to "add" $99,000 to the trader so that he can enter the market. However, the broker will not risk his money, instead he will limit the maximum amount of losses on the account to 1% (the same $ 1000). What does this lead to? To the fact that traders often start trading large lots and quickly lose money.What to choose, forex or binary options?So, binary options or still Forex? My answer to this question will not be objective, because I made my choice a long time ago. For those who have not yet decided, I can give one piece of advice – decide for yourself which type of trading is most suitable for you. It is difficult to predict in advance which method or strategy will bring the greatest profit, but one thing I can say for sure - binary options today provide the lowest entry barriers to the world of trading, making it simple and accessible to everyone. And a large number of binary options brokers allows everyone to find the most convenient platform for themselves. By the way, some brokers have forex simulators built into the platform.Well, I suggest that all novice traders read the article about the main mistakes that beginners make in trading.Read more: Forex or Binary Options? The difference between Binary Options and ...

The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...

Making money from price movements is the fastest way to make a profit. You can double or triple your investment in just a few minutes. This is what many people, tired of overwork or unemployment, would like to do. And so most of these people began to wonder how to become a trader from scratch, what it takes and how promising this kind of activity is. The answers to these questions are covered in the following overview.Who is a trader?To begin with, we must try to understand who a trader is. Essentially, he is a common speculator, who buys cheaper and sells dearer. To do this, he needs to have a stock of money - in today's world, this is electronic money. Also, he needs access to the quotes and assets to be traded, all these conditions are provided by numerous brokers.The trader earns money on the difference between the buy and sell price. And it does not matter whether the price is falling or rising. Anyway, with accurate analysis, he will always be in the black.Professional skills and knowledge of the traderTo have such prospects let's consider what you need to become a trader:Firstly, one needs to have a trading terminal or access to one online;Secondly, you need to understand how to evaluate the possible rise or fall of quotes. And for this you need to have your own trading strategy;Thirdly, you need to know how to manage your money. This science is called money management;Fourthly, to become a trader from scratch you have to manage your emotions and control your behavior when analyzing or opening a deal;Fifthly, you need to choose fundamental or technical analysis.Read more: The main components of a Trading StrategyBut these are not all the conditions. Although they are easy to follow, you will have to develop or strengthen your existing skills and personal qualities. A trader must be stress-resistant, ready to process huge amounts of information, and make numerous calculations. They must also:Know how to use his calculations;be able to stop and rest on time;be disciplined in their analyses, keep notes, and not disregard trivialities.At the same time, a future trader should not be complacent. This work is constant professional growth. Experienced traders never stop at their achievements. They have to improve their trading systems and find brokers with more favorable conditions. And in recent years, such traders have to master automated trading, where trading experts, expert advisors, systems, and robots are used.What else a true expert in trading should possess is the ability to choose assets for trading. There are hundreds of currency pairs available for those who want to become a Forex trader.The cryptocurrency market is gaining particular interest, especially among young traders. There are already hundreds of trading instruments with different volatility and yields.There are about the same number of commodities, stocks, options, and futures. This direction will be of interest to those who wish to become a trader in the stock market.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useClassification of tradersProfitability and speed of making profit are the main criteria in classifying traders. There are such types of currency, stock, and cryptocurrency speculators:Scalper - trades in time intervals of no more than 5-15 minutes. They can open dozens of deals during a day and always have a lot of false signals, so they take as little profit as possible from each deal;Intraday trader (intraday) - works with timeframes from 15-30 minutes to 1 hour chart. He closes all his orders before the end of the trading day;Mid-term - trades for several days. As a rule, it is executed until the next weekend. Leaves deals with positions rollover to other days; analysis is conducted on H1-H4 timeframe;A trader with a long-term outlook - opens positions only on daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Its transactions can be active from 2-3 weeks to a year.You may become a trader in any of these categories, the main thing is to follow the sequence described below.Read more: What timeframe is the best to trade onThe 6 steps of becoming a traderThere are only a few steps to become a trader - some of them are very simple, others will take some time. So - how to become a trader, step by step:Get training - on the basis of the chosen broker, on books of famous speculators, on third-party resources, professional webinars.To choose the broker with the necessary set of instruments, official registration, financial license, and obligatory registration at the international regulator.Develop your own trading strategy.Open a demo account, which you can use to test the broker's conditions, service quality, and testing your trading system.Open and deposit an objective real account.Make a trading plan.That's basically it. Now become a professional trader, start earning and take pride in your new profession. Having passed all these stages, in the near future you will see whether it is worth becoming a trader or not. The fact is that you can earn by investing in trading. But it is a separate topic for discussion.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good brokerAmount of profit and tips for beginnersProfit depends on the size of the trading deposit, the number of opened orders, and the number of profitable deals. The trading lot size, the amount of leverage, broker's fees - all this affects the final sum of the profit. In practice, you will have to learn how to calculate all these things.Traders with experience advise not to make mistakes. For example - do not rush headlong into trading, leaving your main work. There is no need to borrow money to replenish your deposit - only use your own, even if it is small.Do not treat this activity as a game, an extra income - it is a job like any other.And now that you know everything you need to know about this job, take the first steps in mastering the profession and become a successful trader, and earn as much as you need for full financial well-being!Read more: What is a Leverage in ...

Acquaintance with the financial market begins with the identification of participants and the exact clarification of their functions. The market assumes the presence of the main actors on it – traders.  That is, a trader is a person who directly trades, the main market participant. This term can be applied to all types of markets. If we talk specifically about the financial market, then the trader here operates with assets, earning on their sale and purchase.Categories of tradersThe entire trading corps can be divided into two groups – professional traders and private traders (amateurs). Professionals are part of the staff of various funds, banks and other financial organizations. Accordingly, in the market they act on behalf of these organizations, making transactions with their assets. Simply put, these are certified financiers who go to auctions as if for work. The category of professionals also includes traders who work exclusively for themselves and operate with their own funds. Since they have no other profession, they can also be classified as professionals.The most numerous category is private amateur traders. Trading is not their main profession, and in the financial market they are engaged exclusively in additional earnings. Such traders do not have a specialized education, and they have to study independently. The financial market is attractive for the possibility of good earnings. That is why the number of amateurs exploring the market is constantly growing. The contingent of amateur traders is very mobile: someone, having failed and disappointed, leaves the market, counting on easy earnings also do not stay for a long time, but new, active and ambitious traders are constantly arriving.Trading in the financial marketIn order to make a deal on the financial market, a trader needs to give an order to a broker about the desire to sell or buy an asset. Of course, the result of such operations should be profit. In order for trading to be profitable, you need to deeply know the market processes and patterns of movement of the value of assets. Not everyone can boast of fundamental knowledge, so success does not accompany everyone. But perseverance and hard work are usually rewarded.Forex is not easy for a beginner, but the financial market has never been easy. If a trader from our days could be transferred to the stock exchange a century ago, he would also hardly be able to work right away. Firstly, he would be deprived of electronic devices and the Internet, from which you can draw the necessary information for trading, while maintaining contact with the broker. Secondly, he would be very limited in the possibilities of technical analysis. The theory of technical analysis itself did not exist at that time, and traders used separate provisions of Charles Dow, which were later systematized into a single theory.Today, the trader has all the tools to make the right decision. Prices are presented in graphic images of more than a dozen types, clearly demonstrating current and future fluctuations. The latest developments in the markets are published by many media outlets, including such reputable ones as Bloomberg or Reuters. Current currency quotes are transmitted online.The revolution in trading in financial markets has taken place in just a hundred years. Previously, a small circle of people had the opportunity to become a trader, but today the market is open to almost everyone.Read more: Five stages of becoming a traderFinancial market trading instrumentsFinancial market traders use technical and fundamental types of forecasting in their work. The technical one is presented graphically, and the fundamental one is based on economic data. By tracking the information on the terminal, based on the learned patterns, the trader predicts future quotes.The terminal is the most important tool of a trader, which is a platform for communication with a broker and an analytical tool. Modern terminals provide information on prices, various indicators and graphical tools.Modern trading is also impossible without automated trading systems, which are called robots or Expert Advisors in the professional slang of traders. Such systems trade autonomously according to the initial parameters. Such a parameter, for example, can be the volume of transactions. There is a lot of talk about the feasibility of using robots, but, in any case, no machine can be more effective than a competent trader.Another serious tool can be considered an economic calendar with announcements of economic events: speeches by economists and heads of banks, politicians, publications on economic topics, etc. So, a modern trader trades on the Internet using Internet trading platforms.Before the appearance of platforms on the Forex market, only large financial organizations participated in trading – banks, funds, etc. With the advent of the Internet, exchange trading has become accessible to ordinary users – knowledge and only a few hundred dollars are required.Trading strategyTraders have different views on the market situation – it is they who determine the trading strategy. One of the important characteristics of the strategy is the duration of transactions. According to this characteristic , several types of investors can be distinguished:long-term, making long-term transactions for several years. The analysis is based on global characteristics and indicators;short-term, making several trading transactions during the year;positional, working on a long-term strategy. Transactions last for several days with profit taking during periods of reduced activity (holidays, vacations, etc.);a day trader who makes transactions during the day (one trading session). As a rule, such traders have a small trading capital, and trading positions are realized quickly;a scalper who makes trades in a very short period (from a few seconds to 10 minutes). With a large number of operations, profitability is not ensured for every transaction. Traders working on this strategy are forced to constantly stay at the monitor and monitor suitable transactions.Read more: The main components of a Trading StrategyWhat does a currency player doFirstly, he trades various currencies. The principle of successful trading is simple – it is cheaper to buy and more expensive to sell. The trader operates with currency pairs consisting of two currencies. The most popular currency pair is EUR/USD. When buying such a pair, a trader buys euros for US dollars.The main advantage of the Forex market for traders is its liquidity. There is a constant supply and demand in Forex, and trading is conducted without interruptions five days a week. The choice of currency pairs for trading is wide: you can trade "majors" (the so-called pairs that are traded through the dollar) or "crosses" (without using the dollar).A trader should be ready to trade not only theoretically. No less important is the right psychological attitude, which is often ignored by beginners. Having familiarized themselves with a couple of strategies, they rush headlong into trading, risking losing all their money and forgetting about the two main enemies of the trader – fear and greed. Greed often kills capital, and fear does not allow it to increase.Many newcomers seek to get rich instantly by opening deals and not thinking about money management. Most often, such traders simply lose all their money. Trying to quickly increase the capital from $100 to $1,000, the trader opens transactions with a large volume, increasing the psychological burden. Mistakes appear, and money goes away. Risk management is very important for a trader. When opening a trade, a trader must accurately imagine the possible volume of not only profits, but also losses. Minimizing risks is the main task that a trader should be able to solve.Read more: How to become a trader from scratchFrom amateurs to professionalsA successful amateur of stock trading can become a professional. Professional trading has clear advantages: the trader now works only for himself, he does not need to go to work in the office, he plans his own working hours. But the main thing now is that the trader is the owner of his own capital, and only his well–being depends on his work.A professional stock market player lives by certain interests - news related to stock markets, currencies, economics, stock statistics, commodity prices. Plunging into this atmosphere, after a while the trader begins to understand this, makes decisions based on independent analysis. For a professional, there is no limit to the accumulation of information and knowledge. He is constantly improving – only this is the key to his success in the ...

Another "exotic" of the international currency market is the US Dollar vs Polish Zloty pair. The instrument does not stand out with any special advantages, therefore it will mainly be attractive to Polish traders and investors, while for the majority of other Forex participants, USD/PLN is not of particular interest, since it does not stand out either with a higher yield or a lower spread value.In addition, Poland's intention to completely switch to the euro does not favor the popularization of this instrument.USD PLN forecast for todayAs for most other exotic pairs with a small trading volume in general, USD/PLN is characterized by such features as: unpredictability, difficulty in making a forecast, high volatility and large spreads due to low liquidity. Zloty is a specific currency and is not widespread in the foreign exchange market.To analyze the exchange rate, it is necessary to pay attention not only to the actions of the Polish leadership, but also to monitor pan-European events (of course, we are talking about long-term dynamics on timeframes from H1 and more).Due to its specifics, the pair is more exposed to fundamental factors, which must be taken into account when compiling analytics, and there will be a lot to analyze, since this tool is very rare, and it is not worth hoping for a sufficient amount of high-quality analytics from brokers and freely available on the network.The way out of this situation can be thematic forums where ordinary traders constantly publish their thoughts on the further movement of currency pairs, although relevant and useful information can be found in Polish and English.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayUSD/PLN exchange rate chart (online) on the stock exchange with indicatorsLooking at the chart of the Zloty-Dollar pair, it is clearly visible that, like most other exotic currency pairs, this one is highly volatile and can pass hundreds of points in both directions per day.General characteristicsThe display of the US Dollar to the Polish Zloty in most trading platforms and on websites with streaming charts is carried out up to four characters after the separator, for example, at the moment it is 4.0799. Some terminals (Meta Trader5) output a value of up to five characters after the separator (4.07943).USD/PLN is a direct quoted currency pair, considered exotic.It is most active during the European trading session, when local exchanges are open in Poland.In terms of volatility on the days of the week, there are no special differences from other "exotics": Monday is traditionally the quietest trading day, but by the next day the pair is swinging at full strength and, practically, does not slow down its activity.Although the USDPLN currency pair is exotic, this does not mean that it will be more difficult to earn on it or the profit will be less.Read more: GBP/PLN: quotes, signals and forecasts for today, chartFactors influencing USD/PLN and what the exchange rate depends onPoland is a former socialist state of the Eastern Bloc, which joined the EU after democratic reforms in 2004 and is still a member of it. The country's economy has undergone major changes over the past decades. Today , its structure by sector is as follows:Services and trade – 64.3% (hotel and restaurant business, insurance, legal services);Mining and manufacturing industry, as well as industrial production – 31.2% (metallurgical, chemical, coal, light);Agriculture – 4.5% (pig farming, fruit gardening, crop production).Poland's main trading partners are other EU countries (Germany, Great Britain, etc.). The main export goods are machine-building, shipbuilding, chemical products, textiles, agricultural products.Although Poland has been a member of the European Union for more than 10 years, it cannot fully switch to the euro yet due to non-compliance with some economic requirements for joining the pan-European currency system (too large budget deficit and instability of the Zloty).However, Poland is doing everything to completely abandon the national currency as soon as possible and switch to the euro, in which case the USD PLN pair will simply cease to exist.The American economy, as much more developed in comparison with the Polish one, is characterized by a significantly greater shift of the vector towards the service sector, which is about 80%. The share of industry accounts for almost half as much of GDP as in Poland (about 19.2%). Agriculture in the United States provides only 1.5% of income.Read more: USD/DKK: exchange rate, online chart, signals & forecasts for todayToday, the exchange rate of the Polish zloty to the dollar is very strongly correlated withUSD/NOK – 97.6%,USD/CHF – 97.1%, USD/SEK – 94.8%, USD/SGD – 94.6%, USD/JPY – 93.8%, USD/THB – 93.2%, USD/CZK – 92.4%,USD/HUF – 91.6%. The inverse correlation of -95.7% for the pair with NZD/USD, as well as EUR/USD – -92.3%, AUD/USD – -91.2%, XPT/USD – -91%. Quite high is the inverse correspondence with the chart of the price of gold (XAU/USD) – up to -89.6% and silver (XAG/USD) – about -85.5%.All the data given relate to the D1 timeframe (that is, to the daily one), on smaller segments the correlation of this pair with others begins to fall and already on H4 USD/PLN does not correspond to any of them by more than 77-78%, and with a decrease in the interval this figure falls even more (on H1 it already falls short of 70%). The Dollar-Zloty pair has a strong correlation at the level of 80-70% with a huge number of different instruments, lists and graphs of which can be easily found on the Internet.For a clear and correct analysis of the pair with the Polish zloty, you need to take into account many factors from various sources, mainly:economic indicators (Poland, EU, USA);trade balances (of both countries and the EU);the situation on the market of brown coal, ferrous and non-ferrous (lead, copper) metals and world commodity markets in general;central Bank rates of both countries;labor market (USA, Poland and EU in general);business activity in industry (Manufacturing PMI index).Due to not only economic, but also its national specifics, Poland practically did not suffer from the pan-European migration crisis, which has a positive effect on tourism, but the agricultural sector was hit hard by the sanctions war with Russia. This has a negative impact not only on the dynamics of agricultural exports, but also on the labor market, increasing the unemployment rate.Read more: USD/CNH - description, characteristics, forecasts and feautures of pairFeatures of the currency pairThe complete abandonment of zloty and the transition to the euro in Poland should have happened a long time ago, but for one economic reason or another it is constantly being delayed. And, despite the fact that they kept saying that the refusal "will happen within the next 2-3 years," it never came to fruition either in 2010, 2014, or 2020, and it still continues to this ...

According to the general opinion, the origin and functioning of monetary systems are among the most difficult to understand issues of economic theory. In this situation, it is important at the initial stage to give clear and functional definitions of the basic concepts.Types of moneyMoney is considered to be assets that perform the functions of a means of circulation, account units and savings funds. Depending on the method of issue, three types of money can be distinguished:commodity moneycredit moneyfiat money.Commodity moneyCommodity money has been known since ancient times. Their value was determined by the value of the material from which they were made. Commodity money played an important role in metal monetary systems.Credit moneyCredit money (inside money) appeared with the emergence of the first banks. They were debt obligations of banks – banknotes or deposits. Their value was secured by the assets of the issuing bank. Credit money was important in countries where there was no state monopoly on the issue of money.According to the alternative history of money, the first money is often considered to be debts on commodity loans – they were used as a unit of account. After a while, the temples (as organizations that enjoyed unconditional trust) began to recognize these debts, and they became a means of circulation. Subsequently, with the emergence of large-scale production, for the organization and launch of which large-scale investments were required, money-debts turned into a full-fledged means of accumulation.Thus, according to representatives of the alternative concept, metal coins, traditionally considered "universal equivalent" and "real money", appeared later than debts and were derivatives in relation to them. An alternative history of money can provide another explanation for the development of the monetary sphere in the past, as well as its features in the present. According to this version, banks are not "money warehouses", but buyers of debts. Recognizing debts, modern banks, like temples in ancient times, turn them into money accepted by everyone. To do this, they do not need to accumulate goods (precious metals) or other types of means of payment.The basis of the value of a loan is the creditworthiness of its counterparty, that is, the confidence that the counterparty will repay its debt on time. This confidence was provided by organizations that, thanks to their reputation, massively accepted (bought) debts: in ancient times – temples, later – banks. The value of the accepted debts was ultimately given by the state:in the law, these funds were declared a national monetary unit, they were guaranteed state support;they were taken into account for the payment of taxes;citizens were obliged to repay their debts to each other with them.Fiat moneyFiat money or fiat currencies (outside money, from Lat. fiat - decree, instruction) were issued by the state in the form of treasury notes. Their value was based on trust in the state. With the emergence of the state monopoly on the issue of credit money created by banks, they were equalized in rights with fiat money. Therefore, all modern money can be considered fiat.Their value is based on trust in the monetary system as a whole. The state, represented by the central bank, not only issues cash, but also maintains confidence in non-cash money that banks create. In the future, we will use the term "fiat money" in relation to all modern money that is not provided with goods or other material values.Modern fiat money can be cash or non-cash. Cash and non-cash money can be exchanged in a ratio of 1:1. With the development of financial technologies, the popularity of cash is decreasing. The basis of the money supply in modern fiat money systems is non-cash money.From time to time, the attention of researchers and the general public is attracted by assets that can perform certain functions of money. Since the mid-2010s, cryptocurrencies issued by the private sector have been claiming this. Cryptocurrencies have separate properties of commodity and credit money.Digital currencies of central banks (central bank digital currencies) is one of the widely discussed projects in the field of monetary circulation in the early 2020s. If they fully perform the functions of money, by their nature they will belong to fiat money.Issue of fiat moneyIn metal monetary systems, the size of the issue is limited by bank reserves (liquid assets of banks). In fiat systems, such restrictions disappear. But it does not follow from this that the issue of fiat money is not limited by anything.Today, the credit activity of commercial banks is influenced by:interest rate policy of central banks;regulatory standards and measures aimed at achieving financial stability;strict limitations of modern banking risk management.Why did states switch to fiat moneyThe gold standard once played a certain positive role, contributing to the development of world trade and industry. At the same time, he had serious shortcomings:the flow of gold between countries, accelerated by higher rates, led to periodic crises;the more countries switched to the gold standard, the more gold was lacking;under the conditions of the gold standard, the central bank could not adequately perform the functions of a lender of last resort.The emergence of fiat money systems solved the problem of the lack of "money metal". But from the very beginning there were risks:for price stability - historically, the state has a reputation for "living beyond its means";for financial stability, fiat emission can lead to bubbles, and due to the growing interdependence of national economies, crises are becoming more "contagious".Maintaining financial stability for 2021 is still an unresolved ...

Scalping or scalping is a strategy that makes many demands on traders. Perhaps the most serious of them is to accept that everything you think you know about Forex trading will be wrong in this context.Forget about it. Scalping is an opportunity to quickly make money on price changes when transactions last 5-10 minutes.Avoid "political" currenciesDo you want to make money by trading a large amount of money in anticipation of some serious movement? No, scalping is earning money on small price movements. And, what is even more likely in relation to the Forex market, it is worth forgetting about searching for highly volatile pairs in the hope of getting a big profit. George Soros managed to do this in 1992, and you can try to repeat it on a smaller scale, but this will be an example of ordinary trading, not scalping.Successful scalping is based on the use of relatively insignificant price movements. And it depends on a good and thorough analysis of the relevant currencies.First, which currency pairs to choose for scalpingHighly "political" or inflation-prone currencies are not suitable in this context, because they are likely to be very volatile, and high volatility should be avoided.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useLanguage barriersIt is much better to find a currency pair that is relatively stable, so that its movement can be analyzed and predicted.The obvious candidate would be the EUR/USD exchange rate. This is the most popular currency pair in the world, for which the most transactions are made, and it has many functions that we need.But it has drawbacks.First, it may seem at first glance that these two currencies are, by and large, equivalent. Both are equally popular, issued by developed democratic states, controlled by independent central banks, but in fact they are not comparable.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe dollar is the currency of a successful political union, it is supported by the federal government and the national treasury, and the central bank, the Federal Reserve System, enjoys broad public support. The euro, the currency of 19 national states, is not supported by the federal government, is prone to crises, as can be seen from what happened to Greece after the 2008 financial crisis, and its management is often criticized.The second drawback is the complexity of the analysis of the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed. There are many, many variables; the position of individual members of the board of directors, the demands of the" southern", poorer countries, the position of the European Commission, which is responsible for economic affairs, and the wishes of Germany, a powerful economy of the European Union.This is compounded by various language barriers that need to be overcome when studying the statements of those who determine the behavior of the ECB.Finally, the ECB is much more autonomous than the Fed.Perhaps the USD/JPY pair may be a more suitable option? The Japanese currency, like the dollar, is the currency of a single state, and the two economies conduct extensive trade with each other. But the language barrier is even more pronounced, and the Bank of Japan is not independent, which means that it is potentially open to political interference.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)Communication across the AtlanticThe best candidate for scalping may be USD/GBP. The Fed and the Bank of England are independent but accountable central banks, there is no language barrier, and the legal systems of the two countries are very close.The recent dynamics of the pound against the dollar was quite high, which gives scalpers the opportunity for significant profits. The reasons for this movement include the signing of a trade agreement with the European Union and hopes for the recovery of the UK economy.To predict strong movements in the short term, traders need a thorough and constant analysis of the factors that affect the movement of currencies: economic expectations, fiscal policy and, of course, interest rates. Scalpers will be helped by the fact that both countries have the same attitude to economic management, giving priority to a strong private sector, competitive tax rates and high growth rates.Plus, the US and the UK have a long history of bilateral inter-Atlantic trade.Transactions with GBP/USD may lack the attractiveness of exotic currency pairs, but scalping is not an adventure in the Forex market, but a way to make a profit.Read more: Rich history of the Bank of ...