GBP/USD Trading forecasts and signals - page 2

The pound is showing a moderate recovery, supported mainly by external factors. The key catalyst was the Trump administration's decision to postpone the introduction of increased tariffs for 75 countries for 90 days, while maintaining the base rate of 10% for them. The exception was China, which will be subject to maximum restrictions of 125%. This decision somewhat reduced the tension in the debt markets, allowing yields to retreat from recent highs.The change in US trade rhetoric has significantly affected expectations regarding the Bank of England's policy. Before the tariffs were introduced, the probability of a rate cut in May was estimated at only 10%, but now half of analysts predict an easing by 50 basis points. Such expectations are formed against the background of growing uncertainty and changing behavior of institutional investors.Of particular concern is the dramatic change in forex hedging strategy. Large hedge funds are massively switching to gold, ignoring other assets. The volume of borrowed funds allocated for such investments increased from 4 to 61 billion pounds in just a month, which creates additional liquidity risks in the market. Claire Lombardelli, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, noted that the US trade policy will certainly put pressure on economic growth, but its impact on inflation is still difficult to assess.The dollar index sank, retreating from yesterday's high of 103.00 to 102.30. According to Finance Minister Bessent, the original purpose of the trade restrictions was to stimulate negotiations, but an unexpectedly strong market reaction forced the administration to reconsider the timing of the measures.The technical picture of the GBP/USD pair shows a correction within the ascending channel of 1.2800-1.3220. The indicators show a weakening of the bullish signal - the moving averages on the Alligator have leveled off, and the Awesome Oscillator histogram forms corrective bars in the negative zone.Purchases will be relevant if the pair is consolidated above 1.2900 with the prospect of moving towards 1.3100. The protective stop loss is set at 1.2800.Selling is advisable when breaking 1.2800 down with a target of 1.2580. We will set the security order at ...

USA: inflation and government bonds in the spotlightThe focus of the American market today is the publication of the March consumer price index (CPI). Inflation is expected to slow down: according to the consensus forecast, the overall indicator will decrease from 2.8% to 2.5% in annual terms, and the core CPI index from 3.1% to 3.0%. Despite the increase in tariffs, which reinforces inflation expectations for the medium term, the Federal Reserve's attention is focused on internal, "organic" price pressures. An additional indicator of current investor sentiment will be the auction for the placement of 30-year US Treasury bonds.Sweden: signs of economic recoveryToday, at 08:00 Central European time, data on GDP, production and consumption for February will be published. Given that there has already been an increase in retail sales and the total number of hours worked, there is a possibility of positive dynamics in other segments of the economy. In addition, a speech by a representative of the Riksbank of the Seimas on monetary policy issues will be held at 09:00.Norway: inflation remains at the center of controversyThe inflation data for March will be key for the Norwegian market. In February, consumer prices unexpectedly jumped, helped by rising prices for groceries, air travel, and catering services. The main question now is whether this is a sustainable trend or a temporary effect. We tend to believe that most of the growth will be irreversible, but at the same time, the monthly inflation rate will begin to slow down. The forecast for the core CPI is 3.3% in annual terms, which, by historical standards, is rather in the lower range, especially after the strong February report.Denmark: inflation and unemploymentThe March consumer price index in Denmark is expected to be published today. According to forecasts, inflation will slow down from 2.0% to 1.7%, which will be facilitated by lower prices for electricity and fuel. There will also be data on the unemployment rate, which may affect short-term expectations for the krona. Additional context can be found in the "Reading the Markets Denmark" analysis from April 9th.China: inflation is stabilizingConsumer inflation in China in March was slightly below expectations, at -0.1% year-on-year and -0.4% month-on-month. Despite this, the indicator improved significantly compared to February (-0.7% YoY), which indicates the first signs of the effectiveness of the incentive measures taken by the authorities.Energy market: correction after sharp growthOil prices fell by about 1% after Donald Trump's announcement about tightening tariff policy towards China. Despite this, the main benchmark oil grades ended the previous session with an increase of 4%, recovering some of the sharp drop at the beginning of the day. Brent futures are currently trading in the range of 64-65 dollars per barrel.Global Trade: a sharp turnaround by the United StatesThe day before, the US administration announced a 90-day suspension of new duties on most countries in order to create conditions for negotiations. However, tariffs on Chinese goods were increased to 125%. Notably, this decision does not apply to Canada and Mexico. In response, China announced a 50% increase in duties on American goods, bringing the total tariff to 84%. Despite the escalation, the market has begun to reconsider the probability of a recession in the United States — now it is estimated at less than 50% compared to almost 70% previously.USA: Fed is concerned about inflation amid economic slowdownThe minutes of the FOMC meeting showed that the regulator is concerned about rising inflation with a slowdown in business activity and the labor market. The participants noted the difficulty of choosing between supporting economic growth and the need to curb price pressures. Later, Fed spokesman Thomas Barkin emphasized the importance of consumer spending as one of the sustainable elements of the economy at the current stage.The Eurozone: a response to US tariffsThe EU Council voted to impose duties of up to 25% on American goods worth a total of 21 billion euros, including soybeans and motorcycles. This was a response to the US tariffs on steel and aluminum. The Commission hopes to conclude a deal with the United States on the mutual zeroing of duties and an increase in purchases of American energy, but the likelihood of this remains uncertain.Stock markets: violent rebound after panicAfter a series of sales, the US market showed impressive growth: the S&P 500 index jumped by 10%, showing the best result since October 2008. Particularly strong growth was recorded in the technology sector: shares of Tesla, Apple and Nvidia increased by 20%. There is also a positive trend in Asian markets: Nikkei gained 8%, Kospi — 6%, and Chinese indices remain in the black by 2%. European futures are also signaling an opening with an increase of about 7%.Currencies and bonds: the market is adapting to new conditionsThe US decision to suspend tariffs has caused a surge of optimism: yields on short-term US bonds have increased, and the 2s10s curve has significantly tightened. The Fed's rate forecast for the end of the year has been revised up by 20 basis points. The dollar index remained stable, while the euro weakened against the dollar. Emerging market currencies gained support, while defensive assets such as the franc and the yen suffered ...

USA: new tariffs, market reaction and the Fed's positionThe Trump administration's mirror tariffs have been in effect in the United States since this morning. The main focus is on the countries with the largest trade deficit with the United States. China has been hit with an unprecedented 104% tariff, the culmination of an escalated trade war between the two powers. The media is actively discussing potential retaliatory measures from China, including a weakening of the yuan and a possible sale of American assets.President Trump announced the readiness of many countries for trade agreements last night and expressed confidence in reaching a deal with China. However, he also made it clear that the tariff measures may not end there — duties on pharmaceutical imports are expected.Today, special attention will be focused on the speech of Fed Member Barkin and the publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. The document may shed light on discussions about the Fed's reaction function and the state of dollar liquidity. Against the background of tightening financial conditions, the regulator is likely to take a wait-and-see attitude, preferring verbal interventions to lower the rate. Nevertheless, market expectations signal almost five rate cuts of 25 basis points over the course of the year, with the probability of the first cut in May estimated at 50%.The US debt market has seen a significant increase in yields on long—term bonds - plus 20 basis points per day. This happens despite a decrease in the quotations of risky assets and indicates a likely revaluation of the premium over the term. Among the possible reasons are rumors about the sale of Treasuries from China, the reduction of hedge fund positions and weak demand at the auction of 3-year bonds. Today, the placement of 10-year securities will take place, and its results will give an idea of the real demand for long-term obligations in the new conditions.Europe: tariff confrontation with the United States and the ECB's positionA vote is expected in the eurozone today on the initiative of the European Commission to impose retaliatory tariffs of up to 21 billion euros on American imports. This could provoke an even more aggressive reaction from Washington and increase tensions in global trade.Representatives of the ECB are also speaking on the current agenda. Judging by the rhetoric, the governing council agrees that a tightening of U.S. trade policy could seriously undermine global demand. The question remains to what extent the "hawkish" part of the ECB still sees the inflation risks associated with tariffs.Yesterday, the representative of the ECB from Germany, Nagel, said that Washington's change of course "significantly worsens global prospects." At the same time, Simkus, who takes a more moderate position, noted the need to reduce the rate by 25 bps next week, but abandoned the forecast for June.China and inflation dataChina is preparing to publish data on the consumer price index. These data will be important both for assessing domestic demand and for understanding the extent to which the current trade confrontation with the United States is affecting the economy.Oceania and the commodity market: falling rates and oilThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its key interest rate to 3.50% from 3.75%, confirming a soft monetary policy course amid global uncertainty.Oil prices have plummeted — Brent is trading in the range of 60-61 dollars per barrel, which is the lowest in the last four years. This is due to concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy and a general decrease in risk appetite.Sweden, Denmark and the real estate marketIn Sweden, house prices remained unchanged in March after two months of decline. This reflects household pessimism, which has begun to show up in the evidence. The decline in activity in the real estate market may intensify in the coming months, but expectations of lower rates may partially offset the negative sentiment.In Denmark, industrial production increased by 5.1% in February, reversing the decline in January. However, volumes are still lower on a three-month basis, partly due to instability in the pharmaceutical sector.Geopolitics: China, Ukraine and the USAThe head of the US Treasury Department, Vincent, sharply criticized China's retaliatory measures in the trade conflict, calling them a "serious mistake." At the Senate hearing, USTR representative Greer confirmed that there would be no exceptions to the new global tariffs, but stressed that tariffs on Chinese vessels in U.S. ports would not necessarily be cumulative.In Ukraine, President Zelensky announced the detention of two Chinese citizens who fought on the side of Russia. This has caused concern in Washington, and Kiev is demanding explanations from Beijing and the United States.Financial markets: high volatility and reduced risk appetiteStock markets continued to decline: the S&P 500 index lost 1.6%, having already fallen by 19% from its February highs. Despite attempts at a rebound, Trump's rhetoric and uncertainty about China are weighing on investor sentiment. The rise in bond yields came as a surprise, causing declines in the real estate and consumer goods sectors. At the same time, banks, industry and the utilities sector were among the rare winners, which indicates the unwillingness of investors to take on additional risks.Futures on the Asian and European markets opened lower today. The Nikkei 225 lost up to 4% after yesterday's rally, while the mood in China is more subdued — Hang Seng is down 1.6%, and Shenzhen is even up 0.6%.Currencies and yields: pressure remainsThe dollar index DXY decreased by 1% per day, EUR/USD broke through the 1.10 level again, and EUR/CHF fell below 0.93 amid deteriorating sentiment. The EUR/NOK pair reached above 12 due to the fall in oil prices. Yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries rose amid the risk-off, despite the weakness of the stock ...

USA: small business and trade policy under the gunToday, the attention of market participants in the United States is focused on the publication of the NFIB Small Business Optimism index. This indicator is traditionally considered a leading signal for the state of the domestic economy, especially in the context of consumer demand and entrepreneurs' confidence in the sustainability of macroeconomic conditions. In addition to statistics, investors are closely monitoring possible signals of a softening of the Trump administration's rhetoric on trade issues, as well as potential comments from Fed officials amid rising volatility in currency pairs and stock market assets.Denmark: industrial production under pressureDenmark publishes industrial production data for February. The January indicator showed a record decline of 11.9% seasonally adjusted, which is considered an extreme value even by the standards of the volatile Danish sector. Despite the lack of a clear explanation for the reasons for such a sharp drop, this should not yet be considered as a sign of a systemic weakening of the country's industrial sector. It is expected that the February statistics will help clarify whether the decline was a one-time effect or a signal of a deeper correction.ECB: the market is waiting for hints on policySeveral representatives of the European Central Bank are also speaking today. Against the background of tightening financial conditions, investors will closely analyze the rhetoric of officials for potential changes in the trajectory of interest rates or the level of caution when making new decisions. Any hints of a reassessment of the current monetary strategy may cause a strong reaction in the bond and currency markets.Geopolitics and trade disputes: growing tensionPresident Trump confirmed plans for direct talks with Iran on the nuclear program, but warned of possible "serious consequences" if the dialogue fails. Iran is currently rejecting this format. At the same time, China expressed its determination to introduce new retaliatory measures if the United States implements the threat of a 50% tariff increase. The Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China declared its full readiness to "fight to the end," which indicates a serious escalation of the conflict.Market reaction: rumors, volatility, and risk reassessmentYesterday, rumors of a possible 90-day tariff suspension led to a violent intraday rally in the US stock market, although they were later denied by the White House. Despite this, the very fact of the market's reaction demonstrates how sensitive investors are to any sign of a de-escalation of the trade conflict. In turn, the new threat of tariffs from Trump has again caused a wave of concern. The Sentix Eurozone business confidence index dropped sharply from -2.9 to -19.5, reaching its lowest level since October 2023.Scandinavia: budget deficit and fiscal incentivesIn Sweden, the preliminary budget data for March coincided with forecasts, but the cumulative deviation in borrowing amounts to 4.8 billion Swedish kronor. In May, a review of the volume of government bond placements is expected, taking into account new budget incentives, including an increase in defense spending. This creates the prerequisites for an increase in supply on the government debt market.The EU and trade strategy: protecting interests without escalationThe European Commission has proposed a zero-for-zero mechanism for tariffs on manufactured goods as an attempt to avoid a full-scale trade war with the United States. In case of failure of negotiations, the EU is ready to apply retaliatory duties from April 15 to December 1 on a number of American goods. Alcoholic products, including bourbon and wine, were excluded from the list after pressure from individual EU countries. Voting on the list will take place on Wednesday.Stock markets: instability persistsYesterday, the European and Scandinavian markets showed sharp intraday fluctuations: first, growth based on rumors, then a sharp drop after their refutation. The total losses amounted to about 5%, the Stoxx 600 is in the correction zone with a peak drop of -16%. Investors exited all assets, including defensive ones such as telecoms and gold. Against the background of capitulation, expectations in the futures market point to a possible technical rebound of 2%.The American markets proved to be more stable. The S&P 500 index closed with a minimal decline of 0.2%, despite an initial drop of 5%. Investors switched to trading amid rising yields: the real estate and utilities sectors declined, while cyclical securities showed a recovery. In the morning, futures on American indices are up 1-2%.Currency and debt market: yields are rising, the dollar is strengtheningUS bond yields rose sharply: the US Treasury curve shifted upward, and ten-year securities added almost 20 basis points. The DXY dollar index strengthened by 0.5%, while traditional defensive currencies such as the yen weakened slightly. EUR/NOK rose 1.5%, while EUR/DKK reached its highest level since 2020. Brent is trading near USD 65 per barrel. Asian indexes started the day with gains: the Nikkei 225 rose by 6%, while Chinese and Korean markets were also up by 1-2%.The overall market picture remains tense, but the reaction of participants indicates a willingness to receive positive news. In the coming days, the White House's rhetoric on trade issues and its impact on global risk assessment will remain a key ...

GBP/USD: the pound is consolidating in anticipation of the latest statisticsThe GBP/USD pair is showing a moderate correction, holding near the 1.3112 mark. The decline in the US currency creates additional support for the pound, while the British currency remains stable due to a number of external factors.The incoming UK macro statistics did not cause a pronounced reaction from market participants. According to Nationwide Building Society, housing prices remained unchanged month-on-month in March, despite a projected 0.2% increase and an annual rate of 3.9%. Traders are focusing on the publication of final data on business activity indices: in the services sector, the indicator is expected to rise from 51.0 to 53.2 points, and the composite index from 50.5 to 52.0 points, which may reflect a recovery in business confidence.Meanwhile, the US dollar index (USDX) continues to decline, trading near the 102.70 mark and updating the annual low below the 103.00 level. Despite the positive labor market, pressure on the dollar is increasing due to the escalation of trade policy. President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a new package of tariffs that will affect all states that have taken retaliatory measures: duties for China will amount to 34.0%, for the European Union — 20.0%, and for Japan — 24.0%. The White House is also considering the idea of a mandatory minimum trade tax of 10.0% for all partner countries. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had previously negotiated the possible exclusion of the kingdom from this list, but on the eve he admitted that it would not be possible to avoid duties, and the country should prepare for tougher conditions. In 2024, the share of trade with the United States reached 17.0% of the total foreign economic turnover of the United Kingdom.Resistance levels: 1.3210, 1.3420.Support levels: 1.3030, 1.2760.USD/JPY: bearish signals are intensifyingThe USD/JPY pair continues to move within the framework of a downward correction, holding near the level of 147.26 against the background of weak trading activity on the yen due to increased global uncertainty.On Tuesday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed concern about increased trade restrictions from the United States. As it became known, additional fees will be added to the existing duties on steel and aluminum imports, as a result of which the cumulative rate on Japanese products sent to the United States may reach 24.0%. Ueda stressed that this issue will be raised at the upcoming G20 summit in Washington, and it is too early to talk about the consequences for domestic consumption and investment before it is held, instructing analysts to conduct a detailed assessment and develop preventive support measures. Against the background of this rhetoric, macroeconomic indicators remained in the shadows: net purchases of foreign bonds decreased to -5.9 billion yen from -233.7 billion yen a week earlier, and foreign investments in Japanese stocks amounted to - 450.4 billion yen after -1.2 trillion yen.Resistance levels: 148.60, 152.40.Support levels: 146.50, 143.20.Silver market analysisThe XAG/USD pair is showing a steady decline in morning trading, continuing the downward movement that began at the end of the previous week, when silver prices failed to stay near the local highs of October 23. The instrument is currently trading around the 33.20 mark, while investors are carefully assessing the consequences of the latest decision by US President Donald Trump to impose large-scale retaliatory tariffs against all states that restrict access to American products on their markets.According to the White House's initiative, the base duty rate is set at 10.0%, while mirror measures will be applied in an amount proportional to restrictions from other countries. For example, according to Trump, if the European Union withholds a tax of 39.0%, the United States will impose 20.0% in response. Specific values have already been published: China — 34.0%, Taiwan — 32.0%, Switzerland — 31.0%, Great Britain — 10.0%. Additionally, 25.0% tariffs on all imported cars will come into force on April 3, and on component parts from May 3. Market participants fear that these measures could provoke a large-scale deterioration in trade relations and create serious risks for the global economy, including causing a new wave of pressure on the US dollar. It also poses potential threats to the industrial sector, especially given the high proportion of silver in production chains — about 70% of the total supply is used for industrial purposes. The main supplies come from Canada and Mexico, which have already imposed mirror duties on American goods, including silver, totaling 30.0 billion Canadian dollars.Despite the current risks, the silver market remains positive in the long term. According to the Silver Institute, global demand for the metal may reach historic highs in 2025, primarily due to the rapid growth of the solar panel and electric vehicle industries. Physical mining is also showing steady growth: in 2024, First Majestic Silver Corp. It achieved a record production volume of 10.3 million ounces at the Santa Elena field, which is 7% higher than the results of the previous year.Resistance levels: 33.42, 33.75, 34.26, 34.57.Support levels: 33.00, 32.72, 32.27, 32.00.Oil market analysisDuring trading in Asia, WTI Crude Oil prices continue to decline, developing a downward movement that began on Tuesday. Currently, quotes are trying to overcome the support level around $ 69.45 per barrel, while the US republican administration's trade strategy has a significant impact on market dynamics. Investors are reacting with concern to statements from the White House, where protectionist initiatives are intensifying that could affect global energy flows.Additional pressure on the oil market was exerted by news about the possible introduction of a new package of sanctions against Russian oil supplies. A group of American senators has proposed the establishment of ultra-high tariffs of 500% on imports from countries that continue to purchase hydrocarbons from Russia, in case Moscow, in their opinion, delays the process of reaching peace agreements on the Ukrainian conflict. For comparison, similar secondary measures in force against Venezuela involve a tax of only 25%, which underlines the potential severity of the new sanctions pressure.The decline in prices is also supported by negative statistics from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA): oil reserves for the week ended March 28 unexpectedly increased by 6.165 million barrels, despite analysts' expectations of a decrease of 2.0 million barrels. A week earlier, stocks, on the contrary, decreased by 3.341 million barrels. An additional factor of instability was the situation around Kazakhstan, which has been exceeding OPEC+ production quotas for the third month in a row. In March, production in the country reached 1.880 million barrels per day with a quota of 1.468 million. The overall growth is attributed to high production activity at the Tengiz field and stable loading by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. In 2023, the country reached a historic record for total oil and gas condensate production of 8.95 million tons per month, equivalent to 2.17 million barrels per day. All this puts additional pressure on OPEC+'s attempts to stabilize the market.Resistance levels: 69.50, 70.00, 70.34, 71.00.Support levels: 69.00, 68.25, 67.50, ...

USA: pay attention to the ISM index and the labor marketThe ISM Services Business Activity Index for March will be published in the United States this afternoon.A similar PMI indicator released earlier indicated an improvement in the outlook, despite continued uncertainty about tariff policy.The March Challenger report on job cuts is also expected to be published. Although this indicator rarely has a significant impact on the market, it can provide additional information about the extent of federal layoffs.Eurozone: final PMI data and ECB meeting minutesInvestors will also focus on the final data on business activity indices (PMI) for March in the eurozone. In recent months, the revised figures have significantly differed from the preliminary ones, which makes them particularly important. In addition, the minutes of the March meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be published, which may provide insight into possible decisions of the regulator at the April meeting.Sweden: statistics and speech by the head of the RiksbankThe indices of business activity in the service sector and the composite PMI will be released in Sweden today. The consensus forecast assumes that they will remain at the level of the previous month, similar to the manufacturing PMI index published on Monday. The head of the Riksbank, Eric Tedeen, will participate in a panel discussion on the European capital market. Although Sweden's monetary policy is unlikely to be the main topic, there may be individual statements that could attract investors' attention.Main events and market newsIn the US, President Donald Trump announced the introduction of new tariffs on the Day of the Exemption, which caused uncertainty in the markets. Tariff rates range from 10% to 60% depending on the country, while a single base tariff of 10% has been introduced. These measures turned out to be tougher than expected, leading to a sharp decline in sentiment in global markets due to fears of a slowdown in economic growth, falling corporate profits and increased inflationary pressures.In China, the Caixin services PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February. This was the result of increased domestic demand, which contributed to an increase in business activity and the number of new orders, the best result for the services sector since December last year.In Denmark, the Central Bank (Nationalbanken) has published data on currency interventions for March. As expected, the bank did not take any action in the foreign exchange market, which continues a 26-month streak of non-intervention.In Poland, the Central Bank (NBP) left its key interest rate at 5.75%, which was in line with analysts' forecasts. Additional details regarding the prospects for monetary policy will be announced after the press conference of NBP head Adam Glapinsky, scheduled for 15:00 CET.Stock marketsAsian stock indexes are trading in the red zone, with the largest losses recorded in Japan amid the strengthening of the yen, as well as after the announcement of a 24% tariff against the country.Futures on European indices are also showing a decline, while American markets have suffered the most significant losses due to a sharp increase in tariff pressure, which is actually a hidden tax for consumers.The overall market dynamics are consistent with observations of the escalation of trade wars in the last month and a half.Currency and debt marketThe markets expected milder tariff conditions, but their calculations did not materialize. The final decisions turned out to be tougher, which increased the risk of a recession in the United States. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped sharply, while Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.5%.In the bond market, US Treasury yields declined along the entire curve, while the spread between two-year and ten-year securities decreased by 15 bps compared to yesterday's highs.Amid growing uncertainty, the US dollar weakened relative to other forex currency indices. USD/JPY lost 2% overnight and is trading near 147. EUR/USD strengthened above 1.09. Scandinavian currencies were influenced by multidirectional factors: on the one hand, the increased likelihood of a recession in the United States exerts pressure, on the other hand, the attractiveness of assets increases beyond the dollar. EUR/SEK is trading at 11.75, while EUR/NOK is trading near ...

USA: inflation and labor market expectationsToday, traders who prefer forex trading based on the news are focused on two news items from the United States – the ISM industrial business activity index for March and the JOLTs report on the number of vacancies for February. According to forecasts, the ISM index will remain at the level of the previous month, but regional data indicate a possible decline amid trade uncertainty. The Federal Reserve pays special attention to JOLTs data as an indicator of labor demand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions.The Eurozone: inflation and the labor marketPublished inflation data in the leading economies of the eurozone turned out to be mixed: France, Spain and Germany recorded a slowdown, while in Italy inflation turned out to be higher than expected. Overall, the HICP index for the eurozone is likely to decline from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms, driven by lower prices for energy and services. Despite this, the ECB remains inclined to lower rates in April. Unemployment data is also expected to be published today, which is projected to remain at 6.2%, indicating the stability of the labor market.Denmark and Sweden: Wages and PMIIn Denmark, data on wage growth in the private sector for the first quarter will be published. In the fourth quarter of 2024, nominal salaries increased by 4.6% year-on-year, providing a 2.9% increase in real incomes. Wage growth is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2025, but will be lower than in the previous year.In Sweden, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector for March is expected to be around 53 points, which corresponds to the level of the last five months. In February, the figure was 53.5, with all components except inventories showing growth, including new orders, production, and employment.Overview of global marketsAsian markets: Central Bank policy and business activityThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the key rate at 4.10%, which was in line with expectations. The regulator expressed confidence in a gradual decrease in inflation, but noted the risks of a slowdown in domestic demand. Financial markets have already priced in two or three rate cuts before the end of 2025.In Japan, a quarterly Tankan survey was published, the results of which were mixed. The index of business sentiment of large industrial companies decreased from 14 to 12, which was the lowest value for the year. At the same time, the service sector showed improvement, with the indicator rising from 33 to 35, reaching its highest level since 1991, boosted by increased consumer spending and a record influx of foreign tourists. Inflation expectations in Japan continue to rise, which supports the Bank of Japan's plans to further tighten policy.In China, the Caixin private business activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector rose to 51.2 points (against the forecast of 51.1), which was the highest value since November. The growth was driven by improved demand conditions and an increase in foreign orders to a maximum in 11 months.European markets: inflation and GDPIn Germany, the HICP index dropped to 2.3% year-on-year (versus the forecast of 2.4%), mainly due to falling energy prices (-2.8% versus -1.6% in February). A slowdown in service sector inflation (to 3.4% from 3.8%) may be a key factor for the ECB when deciding on a rate cut.Danish GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 was revised up to 1.8% QoQ (from 1.6% QoQ in the preliminary estimate), and annual economic growth was 3.7% (+0.1 percentage points to the previous forecast). The pharmaceutical sector continues to make the main contribution to growth, but other industries are expected to become more active in 2025.In Norway, organizations representing the interests of workers in industry have agreed on a 4.4% wage increase in 2025, which is slightly lower than Norges Bank's forecast (4.5%). This confirms the trend towards a slowdown in wage growth, despite a stable labor market, which opens up opportunities for a gradual easing of monetary policy.Stock markets: dynamics and expectationsGlobal stock markets came under pressure again yesterday, but the dynamics differed from previous sessions due to trade wars. In the US, major indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones is up 1.0%, the S&P 500 is up 0.6%, while the Nasdaq is down 0.1% and the Russell 2000 index of small companies is down 0.6%.The growth of the American market was quite broad: 21 out of 25 industry indexes ended the day in positive territory. However, the predominance of defensive sectors indicates that investors prefer safer assets, despite the improvement in sentiment. Volatility (VIX) has increased, even despite the rise of the S&P 500, which signals continued caution.Asian markets are mostly growing today, especially in export-oriented South Korea and Taiwan. European futures are also trading higher, while American futures are showing a decline.Currency and debt marketsThe US bond market ended the day with an increase in yields on the short section of the curve: 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 5 bps, and the yield on 10-year UST was 4.21%. The rumors about the ECB's tougher stance supported the yield on 2-year German bonds, but did not have a significant impact on the euro exchange rate. The EUR/USD pair gradually declined to 1.08.USD/JPY continues to consolidate near 150.00. The EUR/SEK pair rose to 11.86, partly due to factors related to the end of the month. The Norwegian krone (NOK) initially weakened, but ended the day unchanged against the euro at 11.36. In the future, Scandinavian currencies will react to trade tariff decisions, while the Swedish krona (SEK) may be vulnerable to dividend ...

Eurozone: Focus on inflation in GermanyToday, the main focus of investors and analysts is on German inflation data for March, which anticipates the overall figures for the eurozone expected tomorrow.Earlier, inflation in France and Spain was below forecasts, which is a positive signal for the European Central Bank (ECB). It will be important to see if the same trend is reflected in Germany.According to forecasts, the eurozone HICP index will decrease from 2.3% YoY to 2.1% YoY, mainly due to lower inflation in the energy and services sectors.China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI – is growth possible?In China, the Industrial Business Activity Index (Caixin PMI) is expected to be published today. The consensus forecast assumes a slight decrease from 50.8 to 50.6, but there is a possibility of strengthening the result. This is due to improved data on other indicators, such as the Yicai index and rising metal prices in March.Denmark: Correction of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024Revised Danish GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published today. The preliminary report showed solid economic growth of 1.6% QoQ. However, quick estimates are always accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty, so it is important to understand how significant the possible adjustments will be.Sweden: Completion of wage negotiationsMajor industry salary negotiations are due to expire in Sweden today, which creates additional pressure on the negotiating parties. Initially, it was proposed to conclude a three-year agreement at the level of 7.7%, which is lower than expected and may indicate the risks of a downward revision of wage forecasts.Australia: Reserve Bank to keep interest rate at 4.10%The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to leave its key interest rate at 4.10% tomorrow morning, in line with market consensus. At the last meeting, the RBA began a cycle of rate cuts, but did not give clear signals of further easing. Currently, the markets forecast 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, but the probability of maintaining the current level tomorrow is estimated at 90%.Japan: Expectations for the Tankan report and the policy of the Bank of JapanTonight, the Bank of Japan will publish the quarterly Tankan business survey. The PMI indexes indicate steady growth in the first quarter, but the significant decline in March raises questions. The Tankan data is particularly important in the context of the Bank of Japan's future policy: positive results may strengthen expectations for further rate hikes. The spring wage negotiations also confirm the trend towards tightening monetary policy.Main focus of the week: trade duties and their impactThis week, the markets are monitoring the development of the situation around tariffs, especially from the United States. New widespread tariffs are expected to be announced on Wednesday, as well as possible retaliatory measures from other countries. At night, information was received that the United States could impose restrictions against "all countries," which contradicts earlier statements. In addition, the possibility of new sanctions against Russian oil buyers is being discussed.The final event of the week will be the US employment report for March, which is scheduled to be published on Friday.Macroeconomic events and market newsUSA: The core PCE index for February rose by 0.4% mom (consensus: 0.3% mom), which is higher than expected. At the same time, the overall PCE index showed an increase of 0.3% mom, in line with forecasts. The real volume of consumer spending increased by only 0.1% mom, which indicates a restrained mood among consumers.China: The official composite PMI rose to 51.4 in March from 51.1 in February. The index in the non–manufacturing sector rose to 50.8 (from 50.4), reflecting a recovery in the services sector, while the manufacturing PMI reached an annual maximum of 50.5.Norway: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.0% in March, as predicted. The number of new vacancies decreased slightly, which may indicate a moderate weakening in demand for labor. At the same time, the growth of retail sales in the last three months (by 1.3%) confirms the positive trends in consumption.Japan: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's March meeting showed that participants recognize the importance of recent wage increases as a factor for further rate increases. However, concern was expressed about the weakness of investment among small and medium-sized enterprises, which casts doubt on the sustainability of current wage growth.Geopolitical factors: trade conflicts and sanctionsUS President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened to impose tariffs from 25% to 50% on imports from countries that buy Russian oil if Moscow does not take steps to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. This statement followed Putin's words about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. In the coming days, Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Putin, which may determine the further vector of the situation.Stock markets: going into defensive assetsGlobal stock indexes closed in the "red zone" on Friday as investors reduced their risk appetite ahead of the weekend.US index results on Friday:• Dow Jones: -1,7%• S&P 500: -2,0%• Nasdaq: -2,7%• Russell 2000: -2,1%The negative sentiment continues in Asia, where the Japanese yen acts as a defensive asset. The Japanese Nikkei index has declined by more than 4% at the time of writing, and the exchanges of exporting countries are also showing a significant drop.Stock index futures in Europe and the United States point to continued declines, along with falling yields at the long end of the U.S. Treasury bond curve.Dynamics of the currency and debt marketsU.S. government bonds ended last week higher as PCE data, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and threats of new tariffs from Trump sparked caution in the markets. Stocks in the United States have fallen sharply, especially in the technology sector.Currency movements• The JPY strengthened against the major G10 currencies• EUR/USD rose above 1.1080• EUR/NOK rose to 11.35• EUR/SEK ended the week at 11.84This week, the key factor remains the issue of new tariffs, which will determine the dynamics of global ...

The foreign exchange market is better known as Forex or FX. Trading in this market has become very popular in recent years. However, this is not the case - Forex trading raises a number of questions. For example: what is the foreign exchange market? Which currency pairs are best to trade? Is currency trading risky? Some of the answers to these questions will be found in this article.What is the Forex market?The foreign exchange market is also called the Forex market or the English foreign exchange market. It is simply a market where currencies are exchanged. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the foreign exchange market is the largest market in terms of total volume, with up to USD 5 trillion traded daily. It is not a physical place, but rather an electronic network where institutions or individuals trade with each other.The left-hand currency is called the base currency and the right-hand currency is called the quote currency. The second currency indicates the value relative to 1 unit of the base currency. For instance, the formula EUR/USD = 1.4000 implies that EUR/USD trades at 1.4000, i.e., 1 Euro has a value of $1.40. The first currency is always expressed in the second currency. USD/JPY at 110.50 means that one USD is worth JPY 110.50. EUR/USDWhat are the best currency pairs to trade?The best currency pairs to trade effectively depend on your trading style. If you have a short term strategy, for example, if you like to scalp, then the major currency pairs will be most profitable for you because of the low spreads.On the other hand, for a fundamental trader, smaller currency pairs will be of interest based on long-term analysis. The most profitable currency pairs may be those involving the Australian dollar, Japanese yen or Canadian dollar.The best forex currency pairs:EUR/USD: this pair has the lowest spread and is not very volatile.GBP/USD: this pair is interesting in terms of spreads and possible gaps, but it is quite volatile.USD/JPY: this pair has low spreads and offers some interesting possibilities. GBP/USDHow to get started trading currencies online?To start trading currencies online, follow these steps:- Choose a regulated and reputable broker- Choose a broker by the quality of execution of trading instructions- Decide on the trading style that suits you best (scalping, intraday trading, swing trading - you keep your position open for several days)- Determine the appropriate leverage effect in the stock market according to your strategy and experience.- Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.- Choose an intuitive, simple and secure trading platform such as MetaTrader 4.- Try all the above steps on a demo account, before trading live.Read more: Features of intraday trading on the Forex marketGoldIs online currency trading dangerous?Like any financial investment, currency trading online is subject to risks. However, there are different methods to control these risks:- Determine the price of the currency pair at which you want to close a position if developments are unfavourable (for example, if you buy and the price falls, or if you sell and the price rises),- Determine the size of the trade so that your potential loss should not exceed 2-3% of your capital per trade,- Estimate your risk/return ratio (loss/profit) before you open the trade. By default you should have a greater potential for profit than loss, e.g. risk 50 pips, but try to make a profit of e.g. 100 pips.For proper money management and risk reduction it is advisable to start trading on a demo account and try things out on the dirt first. Such an account will allow you to trade in real market conditions, but with fictitious capital, so that you have a complete understanding of the foreign exchange market without any risk.Read more: Forex broker: how to choose a good ...

In the foreign exchange market, the GBP/USD quote (the British pound against the United States dollar) is among the four most liquid instruments.Traders call the pair the word "cable". This jargon seemed to have arisen in the interval when the values of quotations were sent from the Old World to the New through a special wired highway passing through the bottom of the ocean.GBP/USD forecast (online) for todayIn one day, the pair passes from 150 to 200 points, therefore it is considered very mobile, it should be traded with all caution and foresight. The forecast for GBP/USD is based on 20 indicators and shows a fairly accurate picture.General characteristics of GBP USDThe total share of the pair's trading turnover in the foreign exchange market is about 14%.The quote demonstrates how much American dollars should be paid to buy one pound sterling.The GBP/USD exchange rate is characterized by sharp, emotional movements. Volatility is significantly higher than other pairs, for example, twice ahead of the swings of EUR/USD. When calculating the stop-loss level, it is necessary to take into account this feature of the quotation and focus on the furthest highs and lows that are only possible in the considered interval of the price chart.Factors of influence on GBP USD and what the exchange rate depends onThe forecast for GBP/USD should be checked with your own analysis, and in order to conduct it yourself, you need to know the factors influencing the currency pair.The decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (an analogue of our Central Bank) have an important impact on the GBPUSD rate. It is this state body that regulates the establishment of official interest rates. The committee consists of 9 people who represent both employees of the Bank of England, including its chairman, and independent experts.Meetings and publication of their results take place monthly. The decision is published on the second day after the start of the work of the ministers. This happens at 16:00 Moscow time. Directly voting on decisions and official resolutions are made on the second day. In two weeks, a detailed countdown of the meeting is provided, including the points of view of the majority and minority of the voters.The quarterly "Inflation Report" and the "Quarterly Bulletin" can be distinguished from official documents.The first document describes in detail the possibilities of economic growth and the target inflation rate in the next 2 years. The second report includes the results of the current monetary policy and the prospects for the development of the UK economic system.Changes in the rates of the US Federal Reserve and the UK Monetary Policy Committee are reflected accordingly in the quotations of national currencies. Investors who have started working with this pair should be advised to enter the position in small lots and closely monitor the volume of transactions taking place. The price does not hold the overcome levels well, so GBP/USD very often rolls back, even after overcoming strong resistance lines. This feature is largely due to the fact that GBP/USD is noticeably suffering from low liquidity.The correlation of GBP/USD with another currency quote – EUR/USD is always noticeable. This connection is very logical, because the euro also stands on the side of the Europeans, sharing all the main news affecting the currency quotes of the EU member states.Read more: How much can you really earn on the Forex marketHow best to trade on the GBP USD currency pairThe GBP/USD currency pair has a ticker identical to its name. Most forex brokers have this tool in their arsenal, so there should not be any problems with finding this tool.The minimum lot, according to interbank standards, is 100,000 GBP. Naturally, the broker makes it possible to work with fractional parts.The spread is approximately 0.00005 - 0.00015.The trading session with this instrument coincides with EUR/USD, which allows you to work seamlessly with quotes.Given the dynamics of the pair and its predisposition to long trends, Moving Average indicators should be used in combination with power indicators, among which the most relevant are RSI and MACD. The Ichimoku indicator works successfully to determine the price levels of support and resistance on a currency pair. Also, as a more functional alternative to the RSI indicator, you can use Stochastic, which determines the oversold and overbought levels in the foreign exchange market.A sign of professional trading is a combination of technical and fundamental analysis data to open a position. This is also true for the GBP/USD pair.One of the interesting ways to make money on a currency pair is trading digital options. This is a very simple tool based literally on two buttons - UP and DOWN.Read more: Key participants of the forex marketFeatures of the currency pairEngland officially has a market economy with limited state control. The economy of the United Kingdom is the largest in the world and ranks sixth. In Europe, in terms of economic indicators, the UK is overtaken only by Germany.  The Government includes the Treasury, which is headed by the Chancellor, who is responsible for the creation and implementation of economic and social policy by the British government.The Bank of England acts as the central bank of the island kingdom and is responsible for the issue of pounds sterling. Any news concerning these organizations can significantly change the dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate.The pound is the 3rd largest reserve currency in the international economy, after the euro and the dollar. Since 1997, the Monetary Policy Committee has been responsible for publishing the key interest rate at the required level. In fact, the responsible person is the Chancellor of the committee.GBPUSD is a complex currency pair that is very closely interrelated with EUR/USD. At the same time, it lacks such high liquidity, the lack of which translates into increased volatility. Nevertheless, working with GBP/USD is a great chance to increase or strengthen the position already opened on EURUSD. Technical analysis shows relative efficiency. Unjustified price breakouts in any direction will force the trader to adjust his strategy all the time, and will not allow him to earn on one trading idea for a long time.Read more: What time is better to trade ...

According to the general opinion, the origin and functioning of monetary systems are among the most difficult to understand issues of economic theory. In this situation, it is important at the initial stage to give clear and functional definitions of the basic concepts.Types of moneyMoney is considered to be assets that perform the functions of a means of circulation, account units and savings funds. Depending on the method of issue, three types of money can be distinguished:commodity moneycredit moneyfiat money.Commodity moneyCommodity money has been known since ancient times. Their value was determined by the value of the material from which they were made. Commodity money played an important role in metal monetary systems.Credit moneyCredit money (inside money) appeared with the emergence of the first banks. They were debt obligations of banks – banknotes or deposits. Their value was secured by the assets of the issuing bank. Credit money was important in countries where there was no state monopoly on the issue of money.According to the alternative history of money, the first money is often considered to be debts on commodity loans – they were used as a unit of account. After a while, the temples (as organizations that enjoyed unconditional trust) began to recognize these debts, and they became a means of circulation. Subsequently, with the emergence of large-scale production, for the organization and launch of which large-scale investments were required, money-debts turned into a full-fledged means of accumulation.Thus, according to representatives of the alternative concept, metal coins, traditionally considered "universal equivalent" and "real money", appeared later than debts and were derivatives in relation to them. An alternative history of money can provide another explanation for the development of the monetary sphere in the past, as well as its features in the present. According to this version, banks are not "money warehouses", but buyers of debts. Recognizing debts, modern banks, like temples in ancient times, turn them into money accepted by everyone. To do this, they do not need to accumulate goods (precious metals) or other types of means of payment.The basis of the value of a loan is the creditworthiness of its counterparty, that is, the confidence that the counterparty will repay its debt on time. This confidence was provided by organizations that, thanks to their reputation, massively accepted (bought) debts: in ancient times – temples, later – banks. The value of the accepted debts was ultimately given by the state:in the law, these funds were declared a national monetary unit, they were guaranteed state support;they were taken into account for the payment of taxes;citizens were obliged to repay their debts to each other with them.Fiat moneyFiat money or fiat currencies (outside money, from Lat. fiat - decree, instruction) were issued by the state in the form of treasury notes. Their value was based on trust in the state. With the emergence of the state monopoly on the issue of credit money created by banks, they were equalized in rights with fiat money. Therefore, all modern money can be considered fiat.Their value is based on trust in the monetary system as a whole. The state, represented by the central bank, not only issues cash, but also maintains confidence in non-cash money that banks create. In the future, we will use the term "fiat money" in relation to all modern money that is not provided with goods or other material values.Modern fiat money can be cash or non-cash. Cash and non-cash money can be exchanged in a ratio of 1:1. With the development of financial technologies, the popularity of cash is decreasing. The basis of the money supply in modern fiat money systems is non-cash money.From time to time, the attention of researchers and the general public is attracted by assets that can perform certain functions of money. Since the mid-2010s, cryptocurrencies issued by the private sector have been claiming this. Cryptocurrencies have separate properties of commodity and credit money.Digital currencies of central banks (central bank digital currencies) is one of the widely discussed projects in the field of monetary circulation in the early 2020s. If they fully perform the functions of money, by their nature they will belong to fiat money.Issue of fiat moneyIn metal monetary systems, the size of the issue is limited by bank reserves (liquid assets of banks). In fiat systems, such restrictions disappear. But it does not follow from this that the issue of fiat money is not limited by anything.Today, the credit activity of commercial banks is influenced by:interest rate policy of central banks;regulatory standards and measures aimed at achieving financial stability;strict limitations of modern banking risk management.Why did states switch to fiat moneyThe gold standard once played a certain positive role, contributing to the development of world trade and industry. At the same time, he had serious shortcomings:the flow of gold between countries, accelerated by higher rates, led to periodic crises;the more countries switched to the gold standard, the more gold was lacking;under the conditions of the gold standard, the central bank could not adequately perform the functions of a lender of last resort.The emergence of fiat money systems solved the problem of the lack of "money metal". But from the very beginning there were risks:for price stability - historically, the state has a reputation for "living beyond its means";for financial stability, fiat emission can lead to bubbles, and due to the growing interdependence of national economies, crises are becoming more "contagious".Maintaining financial stability for 2021 is still an unresolved ...

Scalping or scalping is a strategy that makes many demands on traders. Perhaps the most serious of them is to accept that everything you think you know about Forex trading will be wrong in this context.Forget about it. Scalping is an opportunity to quickly make money on price changes when transactions last 5-10 minutes.Avoid "political" currenciesDo you want to make money by trading a large amount of money in anticipation of some serious movement? No, scalping is earning money on small price movements. And, what is even more likely in relation to the Forex market, it is worth forgetting about searching for highly volatile pairs in the hope of getting a big profit. George Soros managed to do this in 1992, and you can try to repeat it on a smaller scale, but this will be an example of ordinary trading, not scalping.Successful scalping is based on the use of relatively insignificant price movements. And it depends on a good and thorough analysis of the relevant currencies.First, which currency pairs to choose for scalpingHighly "political" or inflation-prone currencies are not suitable in this context, because they are likely to be very volatile, and high volatility should be avoided.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useLanguage barriersIt is much better to find a currency pair that is relatively stable, so that its movement can be analyzed and predicted.The obvious candidate would be the EUR/USD exchange rate. This is the most popular currency pair in the world, for which the most transactions are made, and it has many functions that we need.But it has drawbacks.First, it may seem at first glance that these two currencies are, by and large, equivalent. Both are equally popular, issued by developed democratic states, controlled by independent central banks, but in fact they are not comparable.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe dollar is the currency of a successful political union, it is supported by the federal government and the national treasury, and the central bank, the Federal Reserve System, enjoys broad public support. The euro, the currency of 19 national states, is not supported by the federal government, is prone to crises, as can be seen from what happened to Greece after the 2008 financial crisis, and its management is often criticized.The second drawback is the complexity of the analysis of the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed. There are many, many variables; the position of individual members of the board of directors, the demands of the" southern", poorer countries, the position of the European Commission, which is responsible for economic affairs, and the wishes of Germany, a powerful economy of the European Union.This is compounded by various language barriers that need to be overcome when studying the statements of those who determine the behavior of the ECB.Finally, the ECB is much more autonomous than the Fed.Perhaps the USD/JPY pair may be a more suitable option? The Japanese currency, like the dollar, is the currency of a single state, and the two economies conduct extensive trade with each other. But the language barrier is even more pronounced, and the Bank of Japan is not independent, which means that it is potentially open to political interference.Read more: The European Central Bank (ECB)Communication across the AtlanticThe best candidate for scalping may be USD/GBP. The Fed and the Bank of England are independent but accountable central banks, there is no language barrier, and the legal systems of the two countries are very close.The recent dynamics of the pound against the dollar was quite high, which gives scalpers the opportunity for significant profits. The reasons for this movement include the signing of a trade agreement with the European Union and hopes for the recovery of the UK economy.To predict strong movements in the short term, traders need a thorough and constant analysis of the factors that affect the movement of currencies: economic expectations, fiscal policy and, of course, interest rates. Scalpers will be helped by the fact that both countries have the same attitude to economic management, giving priority to a strong private sector, competitive tax rates and high growth rates.Plus, the US and the UK have a long history of bilateral inter-Atlantic trade.Transactions with GBP/USD may lack the attractiveness of exotic currency pairs, but scalping is not an adventure in the Forex market, but a way to make a profit.Read more: Rich history of the Bank of ...