Copper Trading forecasts and signals

EUR/GBP: Euro holds growth by the end of the weekThe EUR/GBP pair is showing moderate growth, continuing the upward correction started this week and holding near the local highs recorded on October 17.Investors' main attention is focused on business activity data for October in the EU and the UK. In the eurozone, the index of business activity in the service sector, published by S&P Global, fell from 51.4 to 51.2 points, although an increase to 51.6 points was expected. In the manufacturing sector, the indicator increased from 45.0 to 45.9 points, which exceeded analysts' forecasts of 45.1 points, while the composite index in the same sector increased slightly from 49.6 to 49.7 points, coinciding with market expectations. In the UK, the statistics turned out to be more negative: the index of business activity in industry fell from 51.5 to 50.3 points, against the expected 51.4 points, and the index in the services sector fell from 52.4 to 51.8 points, falling short of the projected 52.2 points. The composite indicator from S&P Global/CIPS also showed a decrease from 52.6 to 51.7 points. Additionally, the British currency is under pressure from a deterioration in consumer sentiment: the Gfk Group confidence index fell from -20.0 to -21.0 points in October.Market participants continue to closely monitor the development of monetary policy in the eurozone. Traders are still expecting a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), while forecasts for changes in the policy of the US Federal Reserve Bank are changing amid the increased chances of Donald Trump winning the presidential election scheduled for November 5. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that final decisions on interest rates have not yet been made, and called for a cautious approach to possible adjustments. The head of the Bank of Portugal, Mario Centeno, on the contrary, called for a sharp rate cut of 50 basis points at the next ECB meeting on December 12.Resistance levels: 0.8350, 0.8359, 0.8370, 0.8384.Support levels: 0.8338, 0.8326, 0.8310, 0.8294.NZD/USD: RBNZ reacts to rising unemployment and lowers interest ratesOn October 25, the NZD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.5996, which is 0.33% lower compared to the previous trading session. The New Zealand dollar continues to weaken amid weak economic data and actions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The bank recently lowered its key interest rate to 4.75%, due to a slowdown in inflation to 4.9% and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. RBNZ is trying to stimulate domestic consumption and support exports, as the economy continues to show signs of slowing down.In addition, the pressure on the NZD exchange rate is exerted by the global trend in favor of the US dollar, which remains stable due to stable economic indicators in the United States. The main focus of the market is on the expected data on US GDP for the third quarter, as well as on the publication of the consumer spending index (PCE), which is a key indicator of inflation for the Fed. Inflation in the United States is stable at 3.7%, which gives the Federal Reserve reason to maintain the current policy of high rates.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has issued a statement on its readiness to take additional measures to support the economy if domestic demand does not recover in the coming quarters. In turn, the strengthening of the US dollar is associated with confidence that the Fed will be able to control inflationary risks in a tight monetary policy environment. Any deviations in the GDP or PCE data may lead to increased volatility in the market and a change in the dynamics of the NZD/USD pair.Resistance levels: 0.6020, 0.6080.Support levels: 0.5950, 0.5910.AUD/JPY: Inflation in Australia is slowing, putting pressure on AUDAs of October 25, 2024, the AUD/JPY currency pair is trading at 100.64, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. This decrease is due to the strengthening of the Japanese yen against the background of recent statements by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and weakening economic activity in Australia.The economic situation in Australia remains difficult. In the recent inflation report for the third quarter, the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 5.1%, which is lower than the previous 5.6%. This indicates a weakening of inflationary pressures, but the economy remains vulnerable, which forces the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adhere to a cautious monetary policy. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the country rose to 3.9%, which is higher than analysts' expectations. In response to these economic challenges, the RBA is not yet considering an active tightening of policy, which also puts pressure on the Australian dollar.In Japan, the situation is more stable, but challenges remain. The Bank of Japan maintains an extremely soft monetary policy, despite an increase in inflation to 3.2% in annual terms. The level of business activity remains below 50 points, indicating a slowdown in the economy, but the BOJ continues to monitor bond yields in an attempt to support growth. This decision has a positive effect on the yen, increasing its competitiveness, especially against the background of the strengthening Australian dollar.Resistance levels: 101.00, 101.50.Support levels: 100.30, 99.90.Copper market analysisAs of October 25, 2024, the price of Copper is $9,367.25 per ton, which is 0.04% more than in the previous trading session. The price increase is due to continued demand amid supply uncertainty and the recovery of industrial production in key consumer countries such as China.The economic situation in China has a significant impact on the copper market. China, as the world's largest consumer of copper, continues to show signs of recovery in industrial production. The latest data on the index of business activity in the industrial sector (PMI) for September showed an increase to 50.3 points, which indicates the return of activity to a positive zone. The Chinese authorities also announced support for infrastructure projects, which led to an increase in demand for copper in the construction and energy industries. Investors continue to closely monitor the government's policy on stimulating the economy, as any measures to support production could significantly increase demand for copper in the coming months.In the global context, there are also concerns about the limited supply of copper against the background of geopolitical risks and possible supply disruptions. Problems in the extractive sector in a number of countries, such as Chile and Peru, affect overall production and keep prices high. Chilean mines are facing protests and operational difficulties, which limit copper exports, while in Peru, logistics and labor problems continue to constrain supply volumes.Resistance levels: $9,450, $9,600.Support levels: $9,300, ...

EUR/CAD: Canadian inflation and oil affect the pair's exchange rateAs of October 17, the EUR/CAD pair is trading near the level of 1.4937 and shows a slight decrease of 0.02% compared to the previous session. Markets remain waiting for key economic publications on both the euro and the Canadian dollar, which gives the pair low volatility and cautious sentiment among traders.The economic situation in the eurozone remains under pressure amid a slowdown in manufacturing activity. In September, the business activity index (PMI) in the eurozone manufacturing sector fell to 43.4 points, reflecting weak business confidence, while in the services sector the indicator was 48.7 points. Forecasts for the upcoming data point to a possible further decline, which reinforces expectations of additional stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB). At the same time, the latest inflation data showed that the core consumer price index (CPI) remained at 2.7%, while the overall figure was 1.8% year-on-year. Experts suggest that a slowdown in inflation may push the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which will be considered at the upcoming meeting.On the other hand, the Canadian economy is showing growth in the energy sector. Oil prices, Canada's main export commodity, remain high, supporting the Canadian dollar. In September, the inflation rate in Canada was 3.8% year-on-year, and the unemployment rate remained at 5.2%. The Bank of Canada is expected to decide at its next meeting to keep the interest rate at 5%, but rising inflation may force the regulator to reconsider its plans. Additionally, the market is waiting for the publication of retail sales data in Canada, which, according to forecasts, may show an increase of 0.4% in September.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0940.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0720.AUD/CHF: the Australian currency is declining amid weak unemployment dataThe AUD/CHF pair at the time of the trading session on October 17 shows a slight decrease and is trading at 0.5940, which is 0.32% less than in the previous session. The pair is under pressure against the background of unfavorable macroeconomic statistics from Australia and stable data on Switzerland.The economic situation in Australia remains tense. The published data on the labor market turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations: the unemployment rate increased from 3.6% to 3.7% in September, while analysts expected it to remain at 3.6%. The number of employed decreased by 9.6 thousand, which also became a negative signal for the economy. In addition, the consumer confidence index decreased by 2.3%, indicating a decrease in confidence in the national economy. These data may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider further monetary easing at the next meeting.From the Swiss side, the economic situation looks more stable. The latest inflation data showed a decrease in the consumer price index from 1.5% to 1.3% year-on-year, which confirmed the downward trend in inflationary pressure. This strengthens the Swiss franc, as the market expects the Swiss National Bank to continue its current monetary policy without significant changes. In addition, Switzerland's external trade balance continues to remain positive, maintaining the national currency at a high level.Resistance levels: 0.5980, 0.6020.Support levels: 0.5900, 0.5860.Copper market analysisAs of October 17, 2024, the price of copper shows moderate growth, correcting after a decrease the day before. Trading opened at $8,000 per tonne and is moving towards $8,080, which is 1.00% higher compared to the previous session.The rise in copper prices is supported by a number of economic factors. First of all, macroeconomic data from China, the world's largest copper consumer, had a positive impact. Thus, industrial production in September increased by 4.5% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 4.2%. The business activity index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector also showed an increase to 51.2 points, indicating an expansion of activity in the sector. In addition, China announced measures to boost domestic consumption and exports, which supports demand for copper and other commodities. The copper market also faces risks related to the geopolitical situation in South America, especially in Chile, the largest copper producer. Amid protests and possible strikes in the mining sector, there are concerns about the supply of metal to international markets.Resistance levels: 8,100, 8,200.Support levels: 7,950, 7,900.Oil market analysisAt the October 17 trading session, Brent crude oil is trading with upward dynamics, again breaking the $90 per barrel mark, which is 0.5% higher compared to the last session. The main factors supporting growth remain concerns about supply constraints due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, where tensions in the sector have escalated, including the most important transport hubs in the Persian Gulf region.The economic situation in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, adds to the uncertainty in the market. According to the latest EIA report released on October 8, crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.6 million barrels, reflecting steady domestic demand and affecting the prospects for price growth. At the same time, expectations for global economic growth remain mixed, as data from China show a slowdown in economic activity: The country's GDP grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, below forecasts, which also prompted a revision of oil forecasts. In particular, Barclays lowered its forecast for Brent to $93 per barrel for 2024, citing declining demand in both China and the United States.Resistance levels: $75.50, $76.80.Support levels: $73.00, ...

GBP/JPY: Yen strengthens after Bank of Japan rate hikeThe GBP/JPY pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 192.214 and updating the lows of the last month.Despite the positive economic data, the quotes did not receive sufficient support. In the UK, inflation remains at a high level, despite the efforts of the Bank of England to reduce it. GDP growth slowed in the second quarter, which puts pressure on the pound. In Japan, by contrast, the recent interest rate hike to 0.25% and plans to reduce the quantitative easing program supported the yen, which also contributed to the pair's decline.Nevertheless, despite the differences in monetary policy, the GBP/JPY pair continues to trade within the framework of a long-term uptrend. The main support levels are at 190.00 and 186.76, while resistance levels are located at 196.71 and 199.46. Analysts' forecasts indicate a possible recovery of the pair to the level of 199.46 by the end of the year, with a possible further increase to 203.04 in 2025. However, if the pair fails to gain a foothold above the current levels, a corrective decline towards the 175.00 mark may begin.Resistance levels: 196.71, 199.46.Support levels: 190.00, 186.76.EUR/TRY: inflation in the eurozone is the driver for the pairThe EUR/TRY pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 35.9788 and updating the lows of the last month.In the Eurozone, inflation reached 2.6% in July, which is higher than analysts' expectations and may lead to a tightening of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Despite this, German GDP declined in the second quarter, which has a negative impact on the economic prospects of the region. Political stability in the Eurozone remains relatively high, but economic data show mixed results, which creates uncertainty for the euro.The economic situation in Turkey continues to deteriorate amid high inflation and political instability. The central bank is taking steps to stabilize the lira, but investor confidence remains weak. Analysts' forecasts suggest a further weakening of the Turkish lira, which may lead to an increase in the EUR/TRY pair to the level of 44.081 by the end of 2024.Resistance levels: 36.7296, 38.5577.Support levels: 35.5, 34.5.AUD/NZD: mixed economic results support volatilityThe AUD/NZD pair is correcting after a volatile start to the week, trading at 1.09859 and updating the lows of the last month.The economic situation in Australia shows mixed results. Despite expectations of lower interest rates, the latest Australian inflation data turned out to be higher than expected, which may force the Reserve Bank of Australia to reconsider its monetary policy plans and potentially raise rates. On the other hand, in New Zealand, the Reserve Bank maintains a softer monetary policy, which creates favorable conditions for the strengthening of the Australian dollar against the New Zealand dollar.Political and economic news also have an impact on the exchange rate of the currency pair. Discussions are continuing in Australia on measures to stimulate the economy, which may support further AUD growth. In New Zealand, economic indicators such as employment and retail sales remain under pressure, adding to the negative backdrop for the NZD. Analysts predict that the AUD/NZD pair may fluctuate in the range of 1.0950-1.1050 in the short term, with a possible increase to 1.12 in the event of an improvement in economic indicators in Australia.Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0950, 1.0900.Copper market analysisCopper is correcting after reaching historic highs at the beginning of the year, trading at $9,051.50 per metric ton as of August 1, 2024.In the second quarter of 2024, copper reached record levels amid supply disruptions and high demand, especially from the energy sectors. In May, the price of copper reached $11,464 per metric ton on COMEX and $10,730 on the London Metal Exchange (LME). However, by the end of June, the price had rolled back to $9,418 per metric ton, due to an improved macroeconomic environment in the United States and a decrease in refining volumes in China.Copper supply problems also remain a significant factor supporting high prices. The closure of First Quantum's Cobre Panama mine, which provided about 1% of the world's copper supply, led to a shortage in the market. Additionally, Anglo American reported a reduction in production forecasts for 2024, despite an increase in production in the first quarter.Resistance levels: 10,000, 11,000.Support levels: 8,450, ...

Data from the Comex exchange indicate a decrease in the cost of copper. By 5 a.m.GMT, the price of a pound of metal dropped to $4,7105, or 0.75% compared to its value at the close of trading the day before. Yesterday, trading on the London Stock Exchange ended with a rise in the price of industrial metals. The cost of copper rose to $10,367.50 cents, or 0.5%. Aluminum rose to $3,551, or 3.4%. The price of zinc rose to $4,149, or 3%. One of the factors that has a significant impact on the markets is the US currency exchange rate. Its growth makes it unprofitable to purchase raw materials for investors with other currencies, including metals. Today, the dollar index is showing growth. It has already risen by 0.13% to 97.91 points. Statistics from China also contribute to the fall in the price of copper. Economic activity in this country is declining due to the deterioration of the epidemiological situation. In this regard, a reduction in demand for copper is ...

There is a decline in prices in the copper market. According to the Comex exchange, by 8.30 Moscow time, the value of a pound of this metal fell to $4,6555, or 0.83% relative to the closing price of the previous trading session. On the London stock exchange, a ton of copper fell to $10,267, or 0.8%. Other industrial metals demonstrate multidirectional dynamics. Thus, the price of a ton of aluminum decreased to $3605 or 0.51%. At the same time, a ton of zinc rose to 4066 dollars 50 cents or 0.61%. The main reason for the fall in copper prices was the epidemiological situation in China, which is the largest consumer of this metal. The number of coronavirus infections is growing rapidly. The country's authorities are tightening quarantine measures, which may reduce the demand for copper. Investors are following the developments related to the spread of coronavirus in China. A negative factor for the copper market is the strengthening of the US dollar. For holders of other currencies, buying copper in this case is more ...

There is an increase in prices on the copper market. By 5.08 GMT, the value of a pound of this metal increased on the Comex exchange to $ 4.186, or by 0.93%. Last Friday, trading in London ended with a rise in the price of a ton of copper to $ 9,037, or by 1.61%. A ton of aluminum rose in price to 2546 dollars and 50 cents. At the same time, a ton of zinc fell to 2928 dollars and 50 cents. Copper market participants are monitoring the situation in Chile, as it may negatively affect the supply of metal. Strikes are continuing at some of the country's copper mines. Protest actions in Peru prevent the supply of copper from the Las Bambas enterprise. The weakening of the US currency also supports the prices of copper and other commodities. A decrease in its exchange rate makes the purchase of copper more profitable for those who use other currencies in calculations. The US dollar index fell by 0.2% on Monday morning to the level of 93.31 points. The drop in the index occurs as part of a correction after its significant growth last ...

Copper is declining in price due to increased concerns about the demand for the metal. According to the Comex exchange, by 9.12 GMT, the pound of copper fell by 0.69%. It was trading at $4.3373. At the same time, trading on the London stock exchange ended on Friday with a rise in the price of industrial metals. The price of copper rose to $9570 per ton, or by 1.08%. The cost of a ton of aluminum showed an increase to $2,600, or by 0.68%. A ton of zinc rose to $3,033. 55 cents, or 1.37%. Statistics on the number of coronavirus diseases in the world have a negative impact on the mood of investors. In some countries, there is an increase in the number of infections during the day. Investors are concerned about the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in Japan. This country is a major consumer of copper and other industrial metals. An increase in the number of diseases, including a new strain of coronavirus, may cause a slowdown in the pace of economic recovery in the Asia-Pacific region. And this will lead to a drop in demand for ...

Raw material prices are rising. When the global economy recovers, how long can the boom last?Doug King created his hedge fund at the dawn of the commodity supercycle in 2004. It was just in time: due to insatiable demand from China, prices for everything from oil to copper rose to record highs. Investors flooded the commodity sector. At the peak of sales, King's Merchant Commodity Fund managed approximately $2 billion.But the boom suddenly stopped after the global financial crisis of 2008 and the beginning of the shale revolution in the United States. Prices have fallen, big institutional money has come out, and many specialized hedge funds have closed.Fast forward more than ten years. For King, one of the best periods of his career has begun: a massive boom in raw materials has lifted his hedge fund by almost 50% this year, as commodities, from steel to soybeans, have reached multi-year highs. And now everyone, from pension funds to individuals who sell commodities, makes money from them. And the only question is whether this is a temporary phenomenon after the pandemic or a signal for longer-term changes in the structure of the world economy."We are experiencing a structural inflation shock," King said. "There is a lot of pent-up demand, and everyone wants everything now, right now."For the first time since the pre-crisis years until 2008, the commodity boom means that central banks are concerned about inflation. The rally will also have a political impact.With an oil price of about $70 per barrel, Saudi Arabia and Russia are once again leading the global energy market – a remarkable return after negative prices just over a year ago. The boom is also an undesirable phenomenon for politicians who are resisting the climate crisis: rising commodity prices will make the transition more expensive.China, which depends on imported raw materials to supply millions of factories and construction sites, is so nervous that the government has tried to lower prices by threatening speculators. To some extent, this worked, as copper lost its positions achieved this year. But on average, prices remain high: iron ore is still close to a record, steel prices in the US have tripled this year, coal has risen to a 13-year high, and natural gas prices are rising.Even after the recent pullback, the Bloomberg Commodities Spot Index, which takes into account the prices of 22 commodities, rose by 78% compared to the minimum of March 2020.And crude oil, the most important commodity in the global economy, showed significant growth this year. This prompted traders and Wall Street banks to talk again about the possibility that prices will exceed $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014.As prices rose, so did Wall Street's interest. The annual Robin Hood Investor Conference, which brings together hedge fund luminaries every year, from Paul Tudor Jones to Stanley F. Druckenmiller and Ray Dalio, in early June, included a discussion on commodities. For the first time in the last five years, the conference was given time to discuss commodities.Jeff Curry, a veteran commodity researcher at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who advocates a long-term bull market for commodities despite the recent sell-off in metals and grains, says there is room for significant investment in the market."Commodities are back in fashion," Curry said. Despite the hype due to sky-high prices, the sector was not able to attract large cash flows, as it was during the boom of 2004-2011.Those investors and traders who have already invested in commodities, betting on recovery after the pandemic, were able to make a profit.Take, for example, Cargill Inc. The world's largest agricultural commodities trader made more money in just the first nine months of the fiscal year than in any full year in its history, as net profit exceeded $4 billion.Or Trafigura Group. It is the second-largest independent oil trader in the world, whose net profit of more than $2 billion in the six months to the end of March was almost the same as for the previous best full year."Our core sales units are operating at full capacity," said Jeremy Weir, chief executive of Trafigura.However, for consumers, the commodity boom means memories of high inflation. For now, companies are mostly taking the brunt of the impact, pushing manufacturing inflation in some countries, including China, to its highest level in more than a decade. But sooner or later, consumers will also pay for it.Companies, from Unilever Plc to Procter & Gamble Co., announced plans to raise prices in the near future."We are seeing levels of commodity inflation that we haven't seen in a very long time," Graham Pitketley, Unilever's chief financial officer, told investors after the release of first – quarter results. "The commodity inflation that we are seeing affects all companies."The speed and scope of this rally, which affected dozens of raw materials from vegetable oil to coal, prompted many to talk about a new commodity supercycle, similar to the one that began almost two decades ago, when China's rapid industrialization changed the structure of the world economy. economy.Economists usually define a supercycle as a period of abnormally high demand that oil companies, mining companies and farmers are struggling to meet, causing a rally that lasts longer than the usual business cycle. Before China, the century of modern history witnessed three different commodity supercycles, each of which was caused by a transformational socio-economic event. The industrialization of the United States gave rise to the first in the early 1900s, global rearmament gave rise to the second in the 1930s, and the recovery of Europe and Japan after World War II gave rise to the third in the 1950s and 1960s.The appearance of the fifth supercycle would be a big event. The price rally confirms the talk of a new boom: the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, consisting of 23 commodities, is almost 500 points, which corresponds to the peaks of 2007-08 and 2010-11. And yet, what is more likely is that the world is still experiencing the impact of a China-led supercycle, which is now loaded with contradictory economic shifts caused by the coronavirus pandemic.Change in the value of commodities in one year The speed and scope of this rally, which affected dozens of raw materials, from vegetable oil to coal, prompted many to talk about a new commodity supercycle, similar to the one that began almost two decades ago, when China's rapid industrialization changed the structure of the world economy.Economists usually define a supercycle as a period of abnormally high demand that oil companies, mining companies and farmers are struggling to meet, causing a rally that lasts longer than the usual business cycle. Before China, the century of modern history witnessed three different commodity supercycles, each of which was caused by a transformational socio-economic event.The industrialization of the United States gave rise to the first supercycle in the early 1900s, global rearmament gave rise to another in the 1930s, and the recovery of Europe and Japan after World War II gave rise to a third in the 1950s and 1960s.The appearance of the fifth supercycle would be a big event. The price rally confirms the talk of a new boom: the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, consisting of 23 commodities, is almost 500 points, which corresponds to the peaks of 2007-08 and 2010-11. But it is more likely that the world is still under the influence of a super cycle led by China, which is now being spurred by the contradictory economic changes caused by the coronavirus pandemic.Initially, Covid was bad news for commodity demand. The world was locked up, travel was reduced, factories were closed. The price of everything from oil to copper followed consumption, falling sharply between March and May last year. But after the first few months, the world began to get back on its feet, and consumption patterns changed towards commodities.To understand what happened, it is necessary to understand the typical relationship between the demand for goods and well-being. As a rule, poor countries consume little raw materials, because most of the costs go to meet basic needs, such as food and housing.The optimal place for commodities is countries with a per capita income of $4,000 to $18,000 – the average income range that China entered in the early 2000s. This disproportionately affects the demand for commodities, since it depends on the level of urbanization and industrialization of countries. With this range of per capita income, families have the money to buy cars, household appliances and other goods that require a lot of raw materials.Industrially developing countries are also building railways, highways, hospitals and other public infrastructure.The demand for goods above $20,000 per capita begins to decline as the wealthier segments of the population spend the increase in wealth on services such as better education, health care and recreation.The coronavirus pandemic has changed this dynamic. Since many families are isolated, spending is shifting from services to goods, even in the wealthiest countries, such as the United States. In many ways, American and European consumers have been behaving in the same way as the population of developing countries for several months, spending money on buying various goods, from new bicycles to televisions.The US economy is the best example of this trend. Overall consumer spending remains below the trends of 2018-19, but this hides a huge discrepancy between spending on goods and services. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, household spending on goods is currently 11% higher than the level observed before the pandemic.  At the same time, spending on services such as recreation, restaurants or entertainment remains 7% lower than before the appearance of the coronavirus."Ultra-accommodative monetary policy, unprecedented fiscal stimulus, pent-up demand, strong household balance sheets and record savings all together paint a picture of a steady and confident growth trajectory," said Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura. Fiscal stimulus has other parallels with emerging markets, as Western governments target infrastructure spending by promising to rebuild highways, railways and bridges.Governments are also striving to build a greener future in order to abandon fossil fuels. Although this is bad news for the coal and oil markets, it means an increase in demand for raw materials such as copper, aluminum and battery metals such as cobalt and lithium, which are key to the transition to green energy."Commodity prices will remain high for a long time to come," said Ivan Glasenberg, the outgoing CEO of commodities giant Glencore Plc. According to him, for the first time, two superpowers of the world, the United States and China, simultaneously promoted major infrastructure projects to save their economies from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.The offer is trying to catch up. Some of the bottlenecks are caused by deliberate actions by producing countries, such as the OPEC+ alliance, which cut oil production last year. And another shortage is due to the complexity of the work of mines, smelters and farms at the height of the pandemic.The decisive factor for the duration of growth is the structural restriction of supply, which means that high prices may not work as a signal to increase production and, ultimately, return the market to equilibrium.The forces that slow down the reaction of the proposal are twofold. First, there are more and more demands from the fighters against climate change that the same production of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas, be reduced. Secondly, the shareholders of the companies demand that the management pays them higher dividends, which, in turn, leaves less money for expanding mines or drilling new wells.The impact of these forces is already evident in some areas of the commodity market, where companies stopped investing in new supplies several years ago. Take, for example, thermal coal. Mining companies have been cutting costs since at least 2015. As demand increased, coal prices jumped to a level not seen in the last 10 years. The same thing happened with iron ore, whose prices soared to a record high at the beginning of this year. The next one is likely to be oil, where companies are significantly cutting costs.For commodity bulls like Doug King, this is a sign of doubling. "This is the beginning of a proper boom cycle, and this is not a temporary surge," he ...