Twitter Trading forecasts and signals

Elon Musk said that if Twitter Inc. (NASDAQ: TWTR) can demonstrate its method of verifying the authenticity of accounts by providing a sample of 100 accounts, then a $44 billion deal to buy the company will be concluded on the original terms. This is reported by Reuters."However, if it turns out that the company's documents are false, then the deal will not take place," Musk wrote on Twitter.On August 4, Twitter denied Musk's statement that the company had misled him in order to make a deal to buy the social network, saying that it was "implausible and contradicts the facts.""According to Musk, he is a billionaire, founder of several companies, advised by bankers and lawyers from Wall Street-was deceived by Twitter by signing a $44 billion merger agreement. This story is as implausible and contradicts the fact as it sounds," reads a statement posted on Twitter on Thursday.In July, Twitter sued Elon Musk in order to force the billionaire to fulfill an agreement to purchase the social network for $44 billion. Later, the billionaire filed a counterclaim against the ...

The social network Twitter Inc intends to find evidence that Elon Musk tried to disrupt the financing of his $44 billion takeover of the company, as well as to find out his reason for rejecting the deal.Institutional investors who helped Elon Musk find borrowed funds to finance the purchase of Twitter have now begun to receive court summonses, according to which they will have to share with the US justice authorities the circumstances of the preparation of the transaction known to them and correspondence with the billionaire, who in early July announced the refusal to fulfill the obligations assumed in April.Similar subpoenas were received by international banks, in particular a division of Morgan Stanley, a branch of Brookfield Asset Management Inc, as well as private partners of Musk. The subpoenas request documents and messages concerning the transaction, its financing, any information about bots or fake Twitter accounts. The management of the social network is also requesting information about the possible impact on the transaction of the stock quotes of the electric car manufacturer Tesla Inc, whose CEO is Musk.Twitter wants to know what creditors, investors and consultants have been telling each other about Musk's behavior since he signed the deal at the end of April. The social network suspects that behind the scenes, Musk was involved in a conspiracy to disrupt all agreements. The court hearing in this case is scheduled to take place on October 17 in Delaware and will be completed in five working ...

Initially, Judge Kathleen McCormick wanted to schedule a hearing on the dispute between Twitter and Elon Musk for October 10, but the latter's representatives insist that they will need more time to collect evidence, and therefore they are requesting a postponement of the meeting to October 17. The second party is ready to agree with this, but only if the representatives of Elon Musk do not prevent the completion of the proceedings within five days.Twitter has repeatedly denied Elon Musk's accusations of intentionally failing to provide the requested data. The management of the social network believes that the entrepreneur is artificially delaying preparations for the hearing on the failed transaction, under which he was supposed to acquire Twitter at a price of $54.20 per share.The lawyers of the social network consider it possible to agree to postpone the start of the court session from October 10 to October 17, but the defendant must provide guarantees that he will not prevent the completion of the case within five days.Twitter shares rose by 1.25% on July 27, at $39.85 per ...

The social network Twitter has faced a leak of personal data of its subscribers. It is reported that the vulnerability in the security system was first discovered in 2022. Now there are reports that the data of 5.4 million Twitter users has been put up for sale for $ 30 thousand. The leak has lines with information from the accounts of various companies, different users and world celebrities.Experts believe that a hacker could have downloaded this data using a vulnerability in the Twitter mobile application for Android. With its help, it was possible, using a simple Python script and the Twitter API, to get account data associated with their social network account without authorization, even if the user hid these fields in the privacy settings. This was possible due to an error in the authorization process in the Twitter Android client, in particular, due to a bug in the process of checking the duplicate Twitter account.For stockholders, this information may serve as a reason for sales, but we do not expect a decrease in quotations by more than 5-10%.Nevertheless, the leakage of personal data of Twitter users is not so large-scale compared to others, for example, T-Mobile had access to the data of 478 million customers, AT&T had 70 million ...

The session on July 19, American stock exchanges ended in the green zone. The S&P 500 rose 2.76% to 3,936 points, the Nasdaq added 3.11%, and the Dow Jones rose 2.43%. All 11 sectors included in the broad market index closed in the black. Telecom (+3.64%), industrial (+3.58%) and energy (+3.16%) companies became the leaders of growth. Utilities sector enterprises moved up more slowly than others (+0.68%).Company newsSteel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD: -1.61%) plans to introduce new facilities for the production of flat rolled products from recycled aluminum, capital investments will amount to $2.2 billion.The Delaware Court allowed Twitter (TWTR: +2.81%) to speed up the trial against Elon Musk.Jefferies Financial Group Inc (JEF: +4.32%) plans to spin-off Vitesse Energy to focus on the core banking business.We expectThe dynamic growth of the stock market in yesterday's trading session could be associated with the weakening of the dollar. Its DXY index has dropped from recent highs set above 108 points to 106.7. This correction can be explained by forecasts that the European Central Bank at the upcoming July 21 meeting will raise the rate immediately by 50 bps, and not by 25 bps, as previously assumed. In addition, the record strengthening of the dollar adversely affects the revenue growth of the largest US companies. Perhaps the optimism shown by the investment community on the eve was excessive, given that the negative factors affecting the market retain their influence. A Bank of America survey released yesterday showed that investors' expectations for global economic growth and corporate profits have fallen to lows since the 2008 global financial crisis. The share of cash in investment portfolios has exceeded 6%, which is the highest figure in more than two decades.The negative spread between ten-year and two-year treasuries also persists, their yields increased by 5 bps the day before - to 3.02% and 3.22%, respectively. The indicator for 30-year state bonds reached 3.17%.Trading on July 20 at the sites of Southeast Asia ended mainly in the green zone. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose by 2.67%, China's CSI 300 rose by 0.34%, and only Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.11%. EuroStoxx 50 has been growing by 0.22% since the opening of the session.Brent crude futures are quoted at $107.35 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,710.0 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3890-3940 points.MacrostatisticsToday, data on home sales in the US secondary market in June will be published (forecast: 5.38 million, previous value: 5.41 million).Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index rose by two points to 32.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 rose above the upper limit of the descending channel and the 50-day moving average, located at 3,922 points. The RSI is in the neutral zone. MACD does not give certain signals to change the current dynamics. It is possible that the broad market index will adjust to the upper limit of the channel at the level of 3890 points. The nearest support for the S&P 500 is in the range of 3600-3660 points.In sightTesla, Inc. (TSLA), the largest electric car manufacturer in the United States, will publish its second-quarter reports today. The general market consensus puts the company's revenue at $16.5 billion (+38% YoY) with an increase in EPS to $1.61 (+58.2% YoY). At the same time, sales are expected to decrease from 310 thousand in January-March to 263 thousand. If these expectations are met, Tesla's series of quantitative sales growth, which lasted eight consecutive quarters, will be interrupted. Since March 28, the company had to stop production in China for three weeks, and after that production was resumed in limited ...

The management of Twitter Inc. sued Elon Musk on July 12 for violating the deal to buy the social media platform for $44 billion. The company wants to oblige the entrepreneur to complete the transaction on previously agreed terms. The lawsuit will be considered by the court of the state of Delaware.On July 8, Musk notified Twitter of the rejection of the purchase deal. According to him, the company made "false statements" about the number of spam bots, and also failed to fulfill its contractual obligations to provide information on how to assess how widespread bots are on the social network.If Twitter wins the lawsuit, Elon Musk will have to pay a $1 billion penalty to the company, and the chances of such an outcome are very high. However, there are certain risks for Twitter, as they will have to officially disclose and prove the number of bots on the social network. Musk was ready to buy the company if their share does not exceed 5%, but, according to him, they are about 20%. If Ilon manages to prove his estimates, then Twitter will have to pay the penalty, and its shares will fall in price against this background.In April, Elon Musk announced his desire to buy Twitter, but after the deal was concluded, he expressed doubts about the number of fake accounts on the platform. Twitter insists that it has fully complied with the requirements for disclosure of information about the transaction. Musk claims that the true size of Twitter's user base is a key factor, as 90% of its revenue comes from advertising. If Twitter provided incorrect data, Musk's legal team uses this as a good reason to withdraw from the deal. As part of the agreement, Musk agreed to pay $54.2 per share, for a total of $44 ...

The session on July 8, the main American stock exchanges ended in different directions. The S&P 500 dropped by 0.08% to 3,899 points, the Dow Jones adjusted by 0.15% and only the Nasdaq rose by 0.12%. Nine of the 11 sectors included in the broad market index closed in the red. Only representatives of healthcare (+0.3%) and the IT industry (+0.1%) remained in the green zone.Company newsElon Musk refused a deal to buy Twitter (TWTR: -5.1%). The billionaire claims that the social network provided false user data and the number of spam bots in it is significantly more than officially stated. Twitter intends to force Elon Musk to complete the acquisition of the company for $ 44 billion through the court.We expectOn July 8, Fitch downgraded Turkey's rating from B+ to B. The rating change is due to the achievement of inflation in the country at a maximum of 78.2% in 24 years, as well as general concerns about the state of the country's economy. Moody's, in turn, lowered the rating of Mexico by one notch, to Baa2, due to negative assessments of the prospects of the economy and the financial condition of the country. Thus, it is placed two steps above the "junk" rating, on the same level with the corresponding assessments of Uruguay and the Philippines, and now coincides with the sovereign rating from S&P Global at the BBB level. The reduction of the sovereign credit ratings of Mexico and Turkey by leading agencies may entail similar actions against other states.The yield of two—year and ten-year treasuries at the end of trading last week increased by 34 bps and 7 bps - to 3.12% and 3.1%, respectively. Until there are clear signs of a slowdown in inflation in the US, we consider the most likely movement of the yield of the "ten-year" to 3.5%.Trading on July 11 on the sites of Southeast Asia ended in the red zone. China's CSI 300 lost 1.67%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.77%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.14%.Brent crude futures are quoted at $107 per barrel. Gold is trading at $1,740 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 3850-3920 points.MacrostatisticsNo significant macro statistics are scheduled to be published today.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index remained unchanged.Technical pictureThe closest support for the S&P 500 remains the range of 3600-3660 points. The RSI and MACD indicators do not give certain signals for a trend reversal, but we do not rule out a rebound to 4000.In sightPepsiCo will publish its second quarter reports on July 12. So far, the corporation has remained profitable, despite the rising costs of labor, transportation and raw materials. The record acceleration in inflation over the past few months calls into question PepsiCo's ability to continue to cope with rising costs and continue to generate profits. Analysts' consensus puts PepsiCo's revenue for the second quarter at $19.49 billion with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.74, which means growth of 1.4% and 1.16% YoY, respectively.The largest US bank by assets, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), will report for the second quarter of the current calendar year on July 14. The FactSet consensus assumes an increase in the bank's net revenue by 4.3% YoY, to $31.82 billion. At the same time, due to the increase in reserves and investments, EPS is projected to decrease by 21.7% YoY, to $2.96. JPM's net interest income may exceed last year's result by 16% due to an increase in consumer lending volumes. Taking into account the accelerated increase in interest rates and an increase in lending volumes, JPM raised its forecast of net interest income by the end of 2022 from $53 billion to more than $56 billion, which implies an increase of 8% YoY. Pressure on revenue will be exerted by cooling demand for mortgage and car loans. According to the results of the reporting quarter, investment banking revenues are expected to fall by 44% YoY due to low activity in the IPO market. The revenue of the trading direction may increase by 15-20% due to increased market volatility. Note that due to the tightening of capital adequacy requirements following the results of the Fed stress test, JPM retained its quarterly dividend at $1.00 per share, which implies a yield of 3.28% per ...

On June 8, Elon Musk announced that he was terminating the deal with Twitter because the social network had significantly violated the terms of the agreement and provided false and misleading data. The entrepreneur has been requesting the information necessary for an independent assessment of the presence of fake or spam Twitter accounts for almost two months. However, the social network could not or refused to provide this data.Nevertheless, Twitter is still hoping to make a deal: the management of the platform has hired a law firm that specializes in mergers and acquisitions legislation to conduct a lawsuit against Musk. The team plans to file a lawsuit this week.Elon Musk will have to pay a $1 billion penalty for exiting the deal. Twitter's shares should fall in price against this background, the nearest support area is located around $31.50-32.50 per share, from current prices of more than 5%.In April, Elon Musk announced his desire to buy Twitter, but after the deal was concluded, he expressed doubts about the number of fake accounts on the platform. Twitter insists that it has fully complied with the requirements for disclosure of information about the transaction. According to the management, there are no more than 5% of fake accounts on the platform. Musk claims that the true size of Twitter's user base is a key factor, as 90% of its revenue comes from advertising. If Twitter provided incorrect data, Musk's legal team uses this as a good reason to withdraw from the deal. As part of the agreement, Musk agreed to pay $54.2 per share, for a total of $44 ...

Twitter shares are trading 15% below the marks of the beginning of 2021. On November 29, there was increased volatility in the securities, as the founder of the social network Jack Dorsey decided to leave the post of its head. His place will be taken by a technical director not particularly known to the public. Unexpected was not only Dorsey's abrupt departure, but also the receiver itself. Market participants were more ready to see Ned Segal as the chief financial officer, who constantly appears on news channels and is in fact the face of the company.However, Dorsey clearly paid more attention to Square and cryptocurrencies, so it's not worth being particularly surprised by his departure. After his return to the post of head of Twitter in 2015, he was able to stir up the social network, which had been standing in one place for a long time. For example, the number of active users (DAU) increased by 130%, while revenue increased from $2.4 billion to $4.8 billion. Next year, a figure of $6.2 billion is expected.The number of subscribers of the new head of Twitter over the past two days has increased from 23 thousand people to more than 200 thousand - they will follow him very closely. However, Dorsey leaves him with a developed plan for the future: thanks to the introduction of subscription services like Twitter Blue and Super Followers, Twitter expects to increase its user base to 350 million DAU and increase revenue to $7.5 billion in 2023. It is hardly worth expecting any significant deviations from the already existing strategy. What you should definitely pay attention to is the stock price: the EV/S ratio is 6, which is noticeably lower than that of competitors - Pinterest and ...

Twitter is an American social network for the public exchange of short messages. Maintaining your page is done in the microblog format.Today, the company has about 200 million active users and continues to actively develop to remain competitive. Let's figure out what the company earns, compare it with its competitors and make an investment conclusion.Twitter's businessTwitter's business is built on two main segments:Advertising services include the promotion of tweets, accounts and trends, as well as the classic placement of advertising on the site and in the application.Data licensing and so on. This segment includes the sale of analytics and statistics on actions and behavior to users - that is, data necessary for marketing purposes.The overall growing trend is present in the revenue of each segment, although drawdowns occur periodically. The advertising segment brings about 86% of all revenue. It is worth noting that revenue is mostly generated in the United States.The gross margin for the first quarter of 2021 decreased Q/Q and Y/Y. Overall, the financial results were strong, but compared to other competitors in the advertising market, they look ambiguous. Shares began to decline, as Twitter expects less revenue in the second quarter than Wall Street forecasts.Comparison with competitorsIn the advertising market, Twitter has many competitors of different sizes, but each works on different platforms that are not similar to each other. For example, our Twitter is a public microblog, Google has a YouTube video hosting and a search engine, Faceebook is a full-fledged social network with many functions, Snap is a messenger whose feature is a video message with different filters applied to the image, and Pinterest is a photo hosting at all.If we discard the specifics of business models and evaluate the effectiveness of companies from a financial point of view, it turns out that Twitter is undervalued. Yes, the financial condition of the company does not look impressive, sometimes it records losses, but among the competitors, the "bird" has somewhere to fly.What are the prospectsThe business of social networks is mainly tied to advertising and requires that the platform be popular. Twitter aims to increase the number of active and monetized users by a third by 2023, to 315 million against today's 200 million. By this time, the company's revenue should almost double to $7.5 billion.To implement this plan, it is necessary to improve the platform. The company has the following solutions:A paid Twitter Blue subscription is designed to help diversify advertising revenue. The subscription will still work in Canada and Australia, there is no data about the USA yet. The subscription itself will provide an opportunity to organize collections of tweets, cancel sending a new tweet, add an interface for reading long posts and customization. Later, they plan to expand the opportunities.Last week, Twitter added 2 new features: Ticketed Spaces and Super Follows. Super Follows is a paid subscription to an account for access to private content. The service resembles a donation, that is, it allows popular users to monetize the audience by receiving a fee from subscribers for access to special content. Ticketed Spaces, on the other hand, are one-time payments for one event. Like a ticket to a concert or conference, where you can ask a question to the speaker, but only on Twitter. The price can vary from $1 to $999. This feature makes Spaces more competitive compared to Clubhouse.Users will receive up to 97% of revenue from the purchase of Spaces tickets and subscriptions to Super Follows. Twitter will receive 3% if the income is up to $50 thousand, if more, then up to 20%.With the Super Follows feature, users can customize the content they offer to their subscribers and choose from price categories of $2.99, $4.99 or $9.99 per month.This year, Twitter plans to increase its staff by 25%. An increase in investments can hit the financial results. But management expects revenue growth to exceed cost growth, with the impact of the pandemic decreasing.RisksReduced interest in the platform.The economic downturn may lead to a reduction in advertising budgets.Strengthening the position of competitors, especially new solutions in various social networks.Weak profit dynamics in the current year.Claims from government services in different countries, blockages, hacker attacks.Investors also fear that the plans for 2023 are difficult to implement, since Twitter gives weak forecasts for the second quarter of 2021.Technical pictureAfter the publication of the last report at the end of April, the shares fell significantly in price, forming a large gap down. Since mid-May, the quotes have begun to actively recover, at the moment the entire drawdown has been redeemed.Now the target of buyers is the range of $71-72.5, its breakdown from the bottom up contributes to the further recovery of the upward trend, and the benchmark will be $80. From the technical side, this is possible according to the weekly schedule. In the long term, this scenario is the main one.Read more: What is a Benchmark in investment and tradingBut on the daily chart, the RSI indicator is in the overbought zone, which creates risks for a correction. At the same time, it can go sideways, as it was from March to April 2021.A breakdown of the $64-63 level from top to bottom can indicate a new test of the 21-day moving average at a loss of $60.7.FinallyTwitter has local difficulties with attracting customers and monetizing its platform. Management has started to make the right steps towards subscriptions, but it will take a long time to implement this idea. Compared to competitors, stocks and financial indicators do not look impressive and stable, which makes quotes constantly subject to high volatility and risks of a deep decline.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to useIn the long term, with the correct implementation of the new strategy, the shares will receive a driver for growth. On the horizon of the year, our target is the level of $80.Since the beginning of the year, Twitter's shares have grown by 25.5%, and over the past 12 months - by ...