USD/CAD Trading forecasts and signals - page 2

In Tuesday's Asian session, after a pullback from the April highs, USD/CAD continues its corrective movement, testing the level of 1.4170. The current dynamics reflect the caution of market participants in anticipation of new drivers to determine the direction.The US currency is facing growing fears of a recession caused by a new wave of trade restrictions. The Trump administration has imposed import duties ranging from 10% to 49% on various countries, including 34% tariffs on China, which combined with previous measures reach almost 60%. The Chinese authorities have already promised mirror retaliatory measures, which may be announced this week.Despite the positive employment data in the United States (the growth of new jobs from 117,000 to 228,000), the market notes some alarming signals:- Average hourly wage growth decelerated to 3.8% YoY- An increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%Canadian macroeconomic indicators show deterioration- Reduction of employment by 32.6 thousand instead of the expected growth- The unemployment rate rose to 6.7%- A slowdown in wage growth to 3.5%- Negative trade balance (-1.52 billion dollars)Of particular concern is the 3.6% decline in exports to the United States, especially in key sectors subject to new tariffs (automobiles, steel, aluminum, lumber).USD/CAD technical analysisThe following readings of technical indicators are observed on the daily chart- The Bollinger Band indicator narrows, following the price down- The MACD retains a weak bearish signal- Stochastic shows divergence, heading upTrading recommendationsFor sales, we should wait for a breakdown down to 1.4145 with the prospect of moving to 1.4050. We will set a protective stop at 1.4200.For purchases, a rebound from 1.4145 is needed, followed by consolidation above 1.4200, which opens the way to 1.4296. We will place the stop loss at 1.4145.The current situation requires special attention to the development of the trade conflict and the reaction of the Canadian economy to new restrictions, which may significantly affect the dynamics of the pair in the coming ...

The USD/CAD pair demonstrates a corrective movement in the area of 1.4218 during the Asian session, reacting to the deterioration in the Canadian labor market. The March employment statistics interrupted the positive dynamics observed during the last quarter, showing a significant deterioration in key indicators.Recent data has revealed a complex deterioration of the situation:Total employment decreased by 33,000 jobs (-0.2%)Full-time employment decreased by 62,000 (-0.4%)The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% (the highest since November 2024)The number of unemployed increased by 36 thousand compared to FebruaryOf particular concern is the decrease in employment in the private sector by 48,000 positions, which was only partially offset by growth in the public sector. These data indicate growing problems in the real sector of the economy.The US currency, on the contrary, is showing signs of recovery, rising to 102.40 in the DXY index. This increase is due to comments by Fed Chairman Powell, who did not rule out the possibility of easing monetary policy in the near future. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the May meeting to 4.00-4.25% is estimated by the market at 54.7%.USD/CAD technical analysisOn the daily chart, the pair is trying to overcome the support of the descending channel 1.4040-1.4430. Technical indicators maintain a bearish signal:The "Alligator" indicator shows the downward expansion of the oscillation rangeAwesome Oscillator forms correction bars in the negative zoneTrading recommendationsFor sales, you should wait for a confirmed breakout of the 1.4170 level with the prospect of moving to 1.3950, setting a protective stop loss at 1.4250.For purchases, it is necessary to consolidate above 1.4280, which may open the way to testing 1.4510, with the protection of the position at ...

EUR/USD: ECB comments shift market sentimentThe single European currency is showing a steady strengthening in the EUR/USD pair at auction in Asia, offsetting the losses of the previous day, when the instrument updated the local lows recorded on March 5. The pair is currently trying to overcome resistance around 1.0780, and bidders continue to look for new catalysts for further movement amid growing geopolitical and economic tensions. One of the key factors is the harsh protectionism of the United States: the White House administration has confirmed its intention to impose 25% duties on all imports of passenger cars, as well as on the most important components - from engines to transmissions and electronic systems.Additional attention of market participants is focused on the statements of representatives of the European Central Bank. Piero Cipollone, a member of the ECB Governing Council, said that the situation is in favor of a softer monetary policy: lower energy prices, rising real yields, the strengthening of the euro and international trade tensions create reasonable conditions for a return to a rate below 2.00%. In turn, the head of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, stressed the need for a pragmatic approach, focusing on projected inflation rather than hypothetical neutral rate levels. In March, the ECB lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points: the base rate was set at 2.65%, the deposit rate at 2.50%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%. The next ECB meeting will be held on April 17 and, judging by the rhetoric of officials, it may again bring decisions in favor of easing.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0654.USD/CAD: local weakening of the bullish trendThe USD/CAD pair is holding slightly above the key support level of 1.4257 and shows an increased likelihood of its breakdown downwards, as the Canadian currency strengthens amid growing concerns about US trade duties.Investors are increasingly considering a compromise scenario between Washington and Ottawa that could lead to an easing or partial lifting of restrictive measures, as well as analyzing Canada's retaliatory actions, including "mirror duties" as a tool to stabilize market sentiment. Additional support for the Canadian dollar is provided by confident macro statistics: in February, the consumer price index added 1.1% month—on-month, exceeding forecasts of 0.6%, and reached 2.6% year-on-year against expectations of 2.2%, which increases the chances of the Bank of Canada maintaining the current interest rate at 2.75% following the meeting on April 16.Resistance levels: 1.4480, 1.4665.Support levels: 1.4257, 1.4150, 1.3950.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair continues to move in a steady upward channel, holding above the psychological mark of $3,000,0 per ounce against a confident fundamental background, contributing to an increase in interest in gold as a defensive asset.Last week it became known that the Chinese authorities launched a pilot project allowing ten leading insurance companies in the country to carry out operations with precious metals through standard contractual schemes. The first deal under the new initiative was concluded on March 25 between China Life Insurance and China Pacific Life Insurance and was a series of applications for spot trading in gold. Despite the limit of 1.0% of the total capital available for participation in such activities, the program may significantly increase interest in instruments related to precious metals, since the total revenues of the insurance sector of China have already exceeded 700 billion dollars. According to analysts at Bank of America Corp., the potential volume of demand from these organizations may reach 300 tons, which corresponds to about 6.5% of the global annual turnover in the gold market.Resistance levels: 3060.0, 3170.0.Support levels: 3000.0, 2860.0.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to rise modestly, remaining within the upward correction and consolidating above the level of $ 73.00 per barrel.Optimism in the market is formed against the background of the latest decisions of the OPEC+ alliance, suggesting a gradual easing of production restrictions in the total volume of 2.2 million barrels per day over the next 18 months. Although April was supposed to be the starting point of this process, the parameters of the first stage have already been adjusted due to the systematic excess of existing quotas by a number of countries. The updated production growth schedule clarifies that almost all parties to the agreement, with the exception of Algeria, are required to compensate for past deviations, which reduced the total volume of the April increase to 88.0 thousand barrels per day. Nevertheless, representatives of the cartel do not rule out a return to a tougher policy as early as June, if the recovery in demand from China turns out to be weaker than expected: recall that in 2024, China provided only 34.0% of the global increase in oil consumption (500.0 thousand barrels per day), against 50.0% in previous years. According to current forecasts, additional demand from the Chinese economy may decrease to 300.0 thousand barrels in 2025.Resistance levels: 73.70, 77.10.Support levels: 72.10, ...

USD/JPY: traders' attention is focused on the details of the BoJ meetingThe USD/JPY pair remains in the upward correction phase, trading near the mark of 150.54, against the background of the predicted behavior of the Bank of Japan and disappointing macroeconomic data from the country.Market participants are carefully studying the published minutes of the last meeting of the regulator, which confirmed that the Bank of Japan does not intend to radically change its current monetary policy. The document emphasizes that a potential increase in the key rate will not be regarded as a tightening, but rather an adjustment within the framework of the current monetary stimulus conditions. The report also indicates that in January, the volume of government bond repurchases amounted to 4.5 trillion yen, down from 4.9 trillion a month earlier, maintaining a steady decline rate of 400.0 billion yen. Meanwhile, fresh statistics indicate a deterioration in business activity: the PMI in industry in March fell to 48.3 points from February 49.0, with expectations at 49.2, and the indicator in the services sector immediately dropped to 49.5 points against the previous value of 53.7, leaving the growth zone for the first time in 2025.Resistance levels: 151.30, 153.40.Support levels: 150.00, 147.10.USD/CAD: Ottawa prepares reform for market integrationThe USD/CAD pair is showing sluggish volatility around the 1.4315 mark, as traders wait and are in no hurry to take active action until clearer signals from the macroeconomic front appear.On Monday, the attention of American market participants was focused on preliminary March business activity data: the S&P Global manufacturing index fell from 52.7 to 49.8 points, which turned out to be worse than expected, while the services sector surprised with an increase from 51.0 to 54.3 points, providing strong support to the composite index, which rose to 53.5 points. Today, the focus is on reports on new home sales and housing price dynamics: according to forecasts, the price index may decrease to 0.2% month—on—month and rise to 4.7% year-on-year. Earlier, sales in the retail market in Canada decreased by 0.6% in January after an increase of 2.6%, while the base indicator slowed from 2.9% to 0.2%.Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney presented an ambitious project to form a single economic space within the country in response to the tightening of US tariff policy. The plan provides for the lifting of federal restrictions as part of an internal free trade agreement, which should simplify the movement of goods and ensure greater labor mobility for federally licensed professionals. Carney also announced investments in logistics infrastructure aimed at connecting energy regions with rail and road hubs, stressing that the central government will recognize the evaluation of regional projects as equivalent to the federal one, thereby speeding up the process of implementing major economic initiatives.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4451, 1.4472.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.NZD/USD: New Zealand economy strengthened in the fourth quarterThe New Zealand dollar stabilized against the US currency, remaining close to the 0.5725 mark after a significant decline recorded a day earlier.The main impetus for strengthening the position of the New Zealand currency was the trade statistics for February published the day before: the foreign trade balance showed a surplus for the first time in several months, amounting to 510 million dollars due to an increase in export earnings to 6.74 billion and a reduction in imports to 6.23 billion.In addition to foreign trade, the New Zealand economy was also supported by its recovery from the recent deep recession, which was not caused by pandemic restrictions: in the last quarter of last year, GDP unexpectedly increased 0.7%, exceeding the consensus forecast of analysts, who estimated an increase of only 0.5%. Senior Expert at Westpac Banking Corp. Michael Gordon explained that the final figures were close to the most optimistic market expectations. A positive trend was recorded in eleven of the sixteen key sectors of the economy, with real estate and services, social security and healthcare, as well as the retail segment and the hotel business among the growth leaders. At the same time, analysts believe that the prospects for accelerating the recovery are still limited, and this allows the New Zealand financial regulator to maintain its policy of lowering interest rates to boost domestic consumption and improve the business climate.Resistance levels: 0.5750, 0.5775, 0.5800, 0.5830.Support levels: 0.5700, 0.5672, 0.5650, 0.5633.Gold market analysisGold (XAU/USD) is showing cautious growth in Asian trading, gradually recovering losses after a two-day correction, during which quotes rolled back from historical peaks, approaching the level of 3015.00. Investors are assessing the prospects for further developments amid reports that the White House's new tariff policy may turn out to be less stringent than expected: restrictions are likely to affect only countries with negative trade balances with the United States, excluding more loyal partners. Nevertheless, tensions remain: the EU has so far been targeted in the supply of aluminum and steel, but a wider range of sanctions is possible, which creates additional nervousness in the markets.Along with this, the weakening of interest in gold was the result of growing optimism in the global economy, supported by rising yields on US Treasury securities, which reduces the attractiveness of protective assets. Yesterday's statistics on business activity in the United States only reinforced this trend: the S&P Global services sector index rose sharply to 54.3 points, significantly exceeding expectations of 51.2 points, while the manufacturing index fell below the key 50 mark, reaching 49.8 points with a forecast of 51.9. Meanwhile, the final composite index showed a steady increase from 51.6 to 53.5 points. Today, market participants will switch their attention to a fresh batch of macroeconomic reports from the United States: at 15:00 (GMT+2), new home sales data will be released, as well as updated values on the housing price index. Analysts predict a slowdown in monthly growth from 0.4% to 0.2%, while in annual terms — from 4.5% to 4.7%. These figures will become key indicators of the sustainability of American consumer demand and may affect the dynamics of gold in the short term.Resistance levels: 3025.00, 3038.21, 3057.40, 3075.00.Support levels: 3000.00, 2980.00, 2956.19, ...

On Tuesday, USD/CAD shows an uncertain movement near the level of 1.4315. Investors are refraining from active actions in anticipation of new drivers that can set a clear direction for the asset. The caution of the bidders is explained by the mixed signals of the fundamental indicators.The March business activity indices in the United States presented a contradictory picture. The manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted (the PMI fell from 52.7 to 49.8 points), while the service sector showed strong growth (from 51.0 to 54.3 points). Today, the market's attention is focused on data on new home sales and the price index, which may confirm a slowdown in price pressure in the construction sector.The Canadian Government is taking active steps to strengthen the national economy in the face of trade challenges. Prime Minister Mark Carney's plan includes:- Simplification of internal trade barriers- Investments in transport infrastructure- Acceleration of the implementation of major projectsThese measures are aimed at increasing the competitiveness of the Canadian economy in the face of external pressure.USD/CAD technical analysisThe main forex indicators paint an ambiguous picture:- Bollinger bands show a narrowing of the range- MACD shows weak bearish dynamics- Stochastic is turning downwards after a recent riseThis configuration indicates market indecision and a possible trend change.Trading recommendationsShort positions: relevant for the breakdown of 1.4300 with a target of 1.4200. The stop loss is 1.4350.Purchases will be promising with a rebound from 1.4300 and overcoming 1.4350 with a target of 1.4451. Stop loss ...

EUR/USD: US duties will cut eurozone GDP by 0.3% — LagardeThe single European currency demonstrates multidirectional dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian trading session, holding near the level of 1.0825. The EUR/USD currency pair is trying to recover after falling to the lows of March 10, recorded at the end of last week, but market participants still prefer a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for new fundamental signals that can set the vector of movement of quotations.Meanwhile, the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, during a speech in the European Parliament, said that the 25 percent trade duties imposed by the United States could slow down the eurozone's GDP growth rate by 0.3% during the first year of their effect. In addition, potential retaliatory steps by the EU could lead to an additional 0.2% decrease, and the overall effect could be an acceleration of inflation by 0.5 percentage points. Lagarde stressed that the current data on consumer prices are within the framework of forecasts, but the continuing uncertainty amid the changing foreign trade policy of the United States poses a serious risk to the economic recovery in the region. According to her, the eurozone's GDP grew by 0.9% by the end of 2024, which is almost twice as high as the 0.4% increase in 2023, but the growth rate slowed in the fourth quarter, and the beginning of 2025 shows no clear signs of acceleration. Of particular concern is the continued decline in industrial production and weak investment activity, despite some improvement in business surveys.Additional attention will be focused on American macroeconomic statistics today. At 15:45 (GMT+2), S&P Global will publish preliminary business activity indices for March: the manufacturing index is expected to decline from 52.7 points to 51.9, while the services index, on the contrary, will show a slight positive trend, rising from 51.0 to 51.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900, 1.0954.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700.USD/CHF: sideways movement persistsAfter reaching the lows of December 6 last week, the USD/CHF pair is showing a corrective recovery, holding near the 0.8835 mark, waiting for new fundamental signals to appear. Market activity remains moderate: bidders are turning their attention to upcoming publications of macroeconomic statistics, which can set the vector for further movement.Today at 11:00 (GMT+2), the focus will be on preliminary data on business activity indices in the eurozone for March. The indicator in the service sector is expected to rise from 50.6 to 51.0 points, and in the manufacturing industry — from 47.6 to 48.0 points. As for the region's key economy, Germany, the corresponding indicators are expected to grow to 51.4 and 47.7 points, respectively. Later, at 15:45 (GMT+2), the United States will publish its own S&P Global indices: in the manufacturing sector, analysts predict a slowdown from 52.7 to 51.9 points, while in the service sector there may be a slight acceleration from 51.0 to 51.2 points.On Wednesday, additional interest will be aroused by figures from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) on sentiment in the eurozone: last month, the index fell sharply from 17.7 to 3.4 points, disappointing market participants. The series of important publications will be completed by the report of the National Bank of Switzerland, which will present its quarterly economic review at 14:00 (GMT+2). Investors expect signals regarding the future course of monetary policy against the background of the latest rate cut to 0.25%.Resistance levels: 0.8863, 0.8900, 0.8929, 0.8952.Support levels: 0.8827, 0.8800, 0.8780, 0.8755.USD/CAD: Canada to hold snap elections on April 28The USD/CAD pair continues its corrective movement, holding near the 1.4346 mark against the background of the absence of strong fundamental or macroeconomic signals capable of setting a clear vector of movement.A key political event that had an impact on the market was the announcement by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of early parliamentary elections scheduled for April 28. According to him, this step is due to the need to respond promptly to the economic challenges that have arisen after the United States imposed 25 percent duties on a number of industrial goods, including steel and aluminum. In response, the Canadian government has stepped up retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. Speaking to the press, Carney stressed that Canada intends to defend national sovereignty and will not allow political pressure to destroy the foundations of independence, but expressed his willingness to engage in dialogue with Washington, provided that the principles of mutual respect and willingness to discuss trade rules on equal terms are respected.From an economic point of view, the situation remains difficult. According to the latest statistics, retail sales in January decreased from 2.6% to -0.6%, and in February the decline continued, reaching -0.4%. Although the base indicator remained in the positive zone, it decreased significantly from 2.9% to 0.2%, which may indicate a slowdown in domestic demand amid growing trade tensions and political uncertainty.Resistance levels: 1.4380, 1.4540.Support levels: 1.4310, 1.4150.USD/JPY: US currency is trying to recoverThe US dollar is showing steady strengthening in the USD/JPY pair during Asian trading, continuing the upward correction that began on March 11. The instrument came close to the level of 149.80, trying to overcome it upwards and updating minor local highs recorded on March 19. The dollar is supported by investors' continued interest in the US currency amid expectations of further Fed actions, while the Japanese yen is under pressure due to conflicting macroeconomic data.The last meeting of the Bank of Japan was held unchanged: the rate remained at 0.50%, and the head of the regulator, Kazuo Ueda, pointed to the continuing uncertainty preventing the transition to further rate hikes. At the same time, the regulator's management is still counting on increased inflationary pressure, which is facilitated by the recovery of domestic demand and rising wages. Against this background, the Japanese Federation of Trade Unions Rengo announced that it had reached an agreement with businesses on an average 5.4% increase in wages, a record for the past 34 years. This factor may accelerate consumer inflation, which, in turn, will increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will revise monetary policy parameters at its meeting in May. However, if the geopolitical and foreign trade instability increases, the regulator may postpone the tightening until July.At the same time, inflation data published on Friday in Japan showed a decrease in the annual consumer price index from 4.0% to 3.7%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose slightly from 2.5% to 2.6%. Weak business activity statistics put further pressure on the yen: the manufacturing sector index from Jibun Bank fell from 49.0 to 48.3 points in March, and the services sector fell below 50.0 points for the first time in a long time, falling from 53.7 to 49.5, indicating a cooling of economic activity in the country.Resistance levels: 150.00, 150.50, 150.92, 151.50.Support levels: 149.09, 148.55, 148.00, ...

USD/CAD analysis on March 18, 2025During Tuesday morning's session, USD/CAD is recovering from yesterday's decline, which resulted in updated lows on March 6. Quotes are testing the 1.4300 level, while market participants expect new drivers to appear for further movement.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), investors' attention will be focused on Canadian inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to accelerate from 1.9% to 2.1–2.2% in annual terms and from 0.1% to 0.6% on a monthly basis. The base index, which excludes food and energy resources, may adjust from 2.1% to 2.2% on an annual basis and from 0.4% to 0.2% on a monthly basis.These data may put pressure on the Bank of Canada, forcing it to take a pause in further monetary policy easing. This trend is observed by most major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, which will hold a meeting on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT+2). Although no Fed rate changes are expected, the tone of the accompanying statement may be more dovish, which will have an impact on the markets.The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised down its forecasts for global economic growth. The increase in foreign trade tariffs by the Trump administration could lead to a slowdown in global economic growth from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026.Sanctions and trade restrictions will negatively affect business investment and may accelerate consumer price growth, which will allow central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer. Economic growth in the United States is projected to slow to 2.2% this year and 1.6% next year, and in Canada to 0.7% in both years, well below previous expectations.Markets reacted to February data on retail sales in the United States, which showed a decrease from 3.9% to 3.1% in annual terms, which is worse than expected. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased from -1.2% to 0.2%, but also failed to meet forecasts of 0.7%.Special attention was drawn to the sharp decline in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in March: the indicator fell from 5.7 points to -20.0 points, which is significantly worse than the expected level of -1.9 points.USD/CAD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the Bollinger Band indicator is decreasing moderately. The MACD indicator retains a sell signal. Stochastic has reached its minimum values and is turning up, signaling the risks of oversold conditions in the short term.Trading recommendations:- After breaking down the 1.4250 level, we will consider selling with a target of 1.4145. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 1.4300.- Purchases are possible after an upward breakdown of the 1.4350 level. The target will be 1.4451. We put the stop loss at ...

EUR/GBP: the pair ends the trading week in the red zoneThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/GBP pair during morning trading, continuing the steady downward trend that began on Wednesday, when quotes finally moved away from the local peaks reached on January 24.Despite the steady "bearish" mood, the macroeconomic statistics of the eurozone remains quite stable and provides some support to the euro. In annual terms, industrial production showed zero dynamics after a 1.5% decline in December, exceeding analysts' expectations of -0.9%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 0.8% after a decrease of 0.4% a month earlier, which also exceeded forecasts of 0.6%. A particularly noticeable increase was recorded in Germany, where production increased by 2.0% in January after a 1.5% decline in December.However, the pressure on the single currency is increasing due to doubts about the stability of the region's economy. Earlier, the euro received support against the background of announced large-scale investments in the rearmament of Europe and the creation of a 500.0 billion euro fund in Germany for infrastructure and defense projects. However, not all EU countries approve of such a significant increase in military spending, which may weaken the positive effect of these initiatives. An additional risk for the euro remains foreign trade factors: investors are concerned about the prospects of new US duties imposed by the administration of Donald Trump, as well as a possible escalation of trade disputes between the US and the EU.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419, 0.8437.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8355, 0.8340, 0.8326.USD/CAD: dollar maintains weak upward momentumThe US dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the USD/CAD pair during morning trading, consolidating at 1.4433: previously, the instrument's active growth was due to the publication of strong data on the US labor market.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which decided on March 12 to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the lowest level since September 2022. The regulator's officials noted that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, but warned of a possible slowdown amid global trade tensions caused by new tariff restrictions from the United States.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), statistics on manufacturing sales in Canada will be released: analysts expect an increase of 2.0% after an increase of 0.3% a month earlier, and wholesale sales may recover by 1.9% after a decrease of 0.2% in December.Resistance levels: 1.4451, 1.4472, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.USD/TRY: dollar reaches historic peak againThe USD/TRY exchange rate is showing mixed dynamics near the 36.6790 mark, as market participants monitor US trade policy, negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the latest data on inflation in the United States.The February statistics reflected a slowdown in the core consumer price index from 3.3% to 3.1% year-on-year, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 3.2%, as well as a weakening of the monthly index from 0.4% to 0.2%. Inflation in the manufacturing sector also decreased: the core producer price index dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%, and the overall indicator dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%, which increased expectations of an early easing of the Fed's policy, although the rate is likely to remain unchanged until June.The Central Bank of Turkey, for its part, continues to adjust monetary policy to reduce inflationary pressure: in March, the regulator lowered the rate from 45.00% to 42.50%, hoping to achieve a reduction in inflation to 24.00% by the end of the year. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics, consumer prices have already slowed from 42.12% to 39.05% in February, which confirms the trend towards gradual stabilization.Resistance levels: 36.7100, 36.7886, 36.8500, 36.9000.Support levels: 36.6500, 36.6000, 36.5406, 36.5000.AUD/USD: the pair is consolidating without an obvious trendAgainst the background of weak volatility of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, trading around 0.6290 as part of an upward correction.The Australian currency remains under pressure, but positive data from the real estate market temporarily supports its position. In January, the total number of approved construction permits increased by 6.3% to 16,597 thousand in monthly terms and by 21.7% year-on-year. In the private sector, the number of new homes increased by 1.1% to 9,042 thousand on a monthly basis and by 8.9% over the year, while the number of private buildings not related to residential real estate increased by 12.7% to 7,213 thousand per month and by 41.6% per year. The cost of the entire development increased by 4.5%, reaching 9.04 billion Australian dollars, but the non-residential segment showed a decrease of 20.7% to 5.69 billion Australian dollars.Support levels: 0.6260, 0.6140.Resistance levels: 0.6320, ...

The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...

The USD/CAD currency pair is a fully American quote, one of the ten most popular currency pairs on the Forex market.Lower volatility does not make this pair worse, but only on the contrary – more stable and interesting for trading.USD/CAD is often called the American equivalent of the European currency pair EUR/GBP.USD/CAD forecast for todayThe USD/CAD forecast is based on 20 indicators, four timeframes and signal strength levels. We recommend paying attention only to the strongest signal – Actively buy or Actively sell. Also, the best moment will be when this signal is repeated on all four timeframes.Visually, the USD/CAD chart does not have any distinctive features and is similar to most currencies of developed countries. Candles are formed smoothly, correctly forming shapes that are easy to read. There are no illiquidity artifacts and sharp jumps on the USD CAD chart. The price holds one direction for a long time before starting a correction or changing the trend. It is thanks to its convenience that USD/CAD is still popular along with the classic USD/EUR and GBP/USD.Read more: EUR/CAD: signals, forecasts, exchange rate chart (online) and quotesGeneral characteristicsUSD CAD chart The USD/CAD currency pair is a straight and four-digit quote and has four decimal places. Some brokers add a fifth sign, mostly only large brokers can do this for the convenience of their clients.The US dollar acts as the base currency, and the Canadian dollar is the quoted one.USD is the most popular and important currency on the planet. There are hundreds of factors of influence on the USD, which are very difficult to follow, so it is better to focus only on key macroeconomic indicators.CAD is considered a commodity currency, as it is strongly influenced by the prices of oil, coal, oil, non–ferrous and ferrous metals. It is better to analyze the quotation for the Canadian dollar.What does the USD CAD rate depend on?The financial policy of the United States and the dynamics of the US dollar have a serious impact on the changes in the exchange rate of the Canadian currency. Since Canada itself, in fact, borders the United States and is largely connected with the American economy, the national currency of this northern state is extremely susceptible to events taking place in the States. In particular, import and export figures to the United States have an impact. Global integration has not bypassed Canada either. This factor affects close cooperation with many countries of the region that are members of APEC (ARES). Periodic jumps in Canadian dollar quotes directly reflect the state of the Canadian financial system throughout the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.The interest rate of the Canadian Bank is one of the key factors influencing the USD/CAD exchange rate.It should be understood that it is not the current rate that is important, but the possibility of changing it. The bottom line is that all the money in the market flows into more profitable assets, so an increase in the rate will lead to an increase in the Canadian dollar and vice versa. The rate will affect not only the USD/CAD currency pair, but also everything where CAD is involved.Indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation – will have an impact, but small, that is, they will have a strong impact only when the interest rate changes. If the rate is stable, then even a change in GDP indicators may not have a strong impact, since leading indicators such as retail sales come out before that, and new GDP data will only prove to be confirming.Read more: CAD/CHF: description, characteristics, trading forecasts and feautures of the pairCanada is in second place in the world in terms of oil reserves, so oil prices are of great importance for this quote. It is also worth clarifying that the main importer of Canadian oil is the United States, which is already closely linked to the Canadian economy. After the last crisis, the United States itself began to extract and export oil, so the share of Canadian oil exports to the United States has decreased and now CAD's dependence on oil exports has also fallen slightly, but nevertheless the Canadian dollar continues to correlate well with oil with a shift of 3-4 months.China is also a big consumer of Canadian raw materials, so it is possible to trace the responses to the USD/CAD quote after the release of important news in China.At the moment, Canada does not bind its currency at the legislative level, providing a regulatory function to the market. The main correction tool is a change in the key rate in the country. Thus, a trader can play on the difference in rates between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.USD/CAD is often chosen by traders who trade on the news, as this currency pair reacts sharply to them, and news can be not only on the economies of countries, but also on oil and coal data.How best to trade on USDCADUSD CAD currency pair FOREX trading is conducted in standard lots, with a volume of $100,000, one item will cost $ 10. Brokers traditionally offer work with fractional lots and leverage, so even $100 is enough for an initial deposit. FOREX remains the preferred place to work with this tool.If you think that the US dollar has a more positive dynamics and a positive impact – the quote should be bought (for CAD).If you think that the Canadian dollar is receiving strong support (news, economy ...) – the quote should be sold (get rid of the cheaper dollar).Active trading takes place during the American session, but even after it closes, during the European trading session, moderate activity continues, which indicates the popularity of this quote. Sometimes the main trend may change at this time.Read more: CAD/CHF: description, characteristics, trading forecasts and feautures of the pairAt 15 minutes, it can be seen that the chart is replete with false breakouts and deep rebounds from pierced levels. However, this trend is smoothed out on the daily chart, and smooth trends can be observed. Accordingly, the work on breaking through will bring the greatest fruits in trading. If we return to short-term trading, then it is more convenient to use indicators such as RSI or CCI with hard stops, which will save the trader from going beyond the price range. Adherents of the Elliott theory will be able to find the point of application of the wave theory on the USD/CAD chart, thanks to their progressive and protracted movement.In general, USD/CAD trading can be divided into:Trading on trendTrading by support and resistance levelsTrading by newsThese are the main ways of working on this quote due to a more stable schedule and direct dependence on many macroeconomic indicators.The greatest volatility is observed from 7 to 10 in the morning.Features of the USD/CAD currency pairIn the jargon of traders, the USD/CAD rate is called "loonie". This name comes from a coin of one Canadian dollar, on the reverse of which is stamped a polar loon, which in English is called "Common Loon". An alternative name sounds like "foundations".Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewThe Canadian dollar is a fairly popular currency, but despite this, it is not among the world's five reserve currencies, which makes it an exclusively regional monetary sign. The raw materials economy of Canada leaves an imprint on the dynamics of USD CAD, forcing it to react to news in the oil and woodworking industries especially acutely. In general, the currency retains its independence and refers to reliable investments, despite its partial dependence on the price of ...

Today we will talk about a fairly simple approach to Forex trading that even novice traders can use. We are talking about a strategy with the telling name "20 points a day”, according to which you can earn exactly 20 points every day. It sounds interesting, because this is 400 points of net profit per month.  In fact, the vehicle can really be used in practice, but you should not expect to receive a daily profit. As in any other strategy, there will also be unprofitable orders, and one of the distinctive features of the method is the equal values of Stop Loss and Take Profit orders. In other words, when trading on the vehicle "20 points a day”, you can either earn or lose the same 20 points. The good news is that if the rules of the vehicle are followed, the number of successful orders is about 75%.Trading rulesThe characteristic features of the strategy include:Successful trading in the long term is possible only on the USD/CAD currency pair;The chart period is only M30;Use only standard (not custom) versions of indicators;Deals are opened on weekdays daily;You will need to open orders at exactly 11-00 GMT;The average transaction time rarely exceeds 3 hours;The values of the Stop Loss and Take Profit insurance orders must be equal and fixed;The maximum risk for each transaction should not exceed 2% of the deposit.  To trade, you will need to open the price chart of the USD/CAD pair with the M30 period and put 2 indicators on it:A simple moving average with a period of 20 applied to the closing points (Close in the settings);Momentum oscillator with a period of 5 and an additional level of 100.As mentioned earlier, the transaction will need to be opened at exactly 11-00 GMT. At this time, the largest trading platforms in the EU are experiencing a peak in trading volumes, which favorably affects the formation of good, local trend movements.  Signals for opening a Sell order:The Momentum oscillator curve is plotted below the 100 level set in the oscillator window;The price chart is formed below the moving average with a period of 20.To open a Buy order, the signals will be opposite:The oscillator line is built above the level of 100;The chart of the pair is built above the moving one with a period of 20.Important! The time of the trading terminal may differ from the time zone of the trader and depends on the location of the company's trading servers. It is very important to pay attention to this and not make mistakes with the opening time of orders. Otherwise, such inaccuracies may result in the loss of most of the deposit.Conclusion The “20 points a day" strategy is quite simple and effective. It has been tested by time and many successful traders. If a few years ago this vehicle was effective on almost any liquid currency pairs, now it is advisable to use it only on USD/CAD. On GBP/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/USD, the number of successfully closed orders is 50% or less. This trend is associated with a gradual increase in market volatility and it is quite possible that over the next 2 years it will be necessary to look for more effective filters for successful trading on this vehicle. But at the time of writing, the strategy remains working and nothing prevents novice traders from starting to apply it in practice right now.Read more: Volatility: types, how to track and how to ...