USD/CNY Trading forecasts and signals

The energy crisis in the U.S. is growing, already affecting one in six households. 20 million families across the country simply can't pay their bills.How much are utilities in the U.S. already short?Electricity debts are growing exponentially; the amount has doubled in just 2.5 years:pre-Covid - $8 billion nationally;December 2021 - $13.1 billion;June 2022, $16 billion.The least protected, low-income segments of the population are under attack. Incidentally, they are the ones who have been hit by the main covid restrictions: from 2019 to mid-2021, debts were growing mainly because COVID kept them out of work. Now this problem has disappeared, but another one has appeared: it is possible to work, the money is paid, but it is eaten up by inflation: food and fuel have become extremely expensive.In Europe and Great Britain the crisis is even more acute. The local authorities have already earmarked $280 billion to ease the energy crisis. And in the U.S., aside from a small $4 billion Liheap subsidy program, there is nothing yet, and new aid laws are still being drafted.What can investors expect from the Utilities sector next?It is not easy for investors in such a situation, forecasts on Utilities stock prices are foggy.On the one hand, rates for individuals are strictly regulated. If overdue debts become even higher, the authorities will be reluctant to raise prices.On the other hand, if they fail to raise prices in the B2C segment, power supply companies will be able to pass on the costs to the B2B segment.Doubtful ideas for investment: a list of utilitiesAnd if so, investors should avoid regulated companies with a large share of the B2C segment, viz:Dominion Energy (D);Duke Energy (DUK);PG&E (PCG);Xcel Energy (XEL).In addition, their equipment runs on natural resources, including gas, which are more expensive than others.Among independent energy producers, NRG Energy (NRG) has the worst prospects, since its facilities are mainly powered by coal and natural gas.Who looks promising in the Utilities sector?The power generating companies with water capacity are much less likely to be affected by the crisis:American Water Works (AWK);Essential Utilities (WTRG).Renewable energy supply companies will also fare well:Constellation Energy (CEG);Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN).Vistra Corp. (VST) will be neutral, as its capacity is more diversified between gas, nuclear and ...

      Shares 29.08.2022 - 4.09.2022Dividends for the week of 08.29.2022 - 09.4.2022CompanyPricePaymentAnnual dividendCutoff DateLast dayMcDonald's (MCD)$256,95$1,382,15%01.0930.08Kellogg Company (K)$73,85$0,593,20%01.0930.08Realty Income (O)$69,91$0,24754,25%01.0930.08Pepsico (PEP)$175,04$1,152,63%02.0931.08Bank Of America (BAC)$34,03$0,222,59%02.0931.08Suncor Energy (SU)$34,31$0,475,48%02.0931.08Nike (NKE)$108,28$0,3051,13%06.0901.09Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)$257,38$8,5713,32%06.0901.09 Corporate reporting season 29.08.2022 - 4.09.202229.08Heico (HEI), Catalent (CTLT)H World Group (HTHT), Joyy (YY)30.08HP (HPQ), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD),Best Buy Co. (BBY), Chewy (CHWY), Chargepoint Hldgs (CHPT), PVH (PVH)Baidu (BIDU)31.08Brown-Forman (BF.A, BF.B), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Mongodb (MDB),Okta (OKTA), Cooper Companies (COO), Pure Storage (PSTG), Sentinelone (S), Donaldson Company (DCI), Nutanix (NTNX), Greif (GEF)01.09Broadcom (AVGO), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Hormel Foods (HRL),Campbell Soup (CPB), Toro Company (TTC), Ciena (CIEN), Smartsheet (SMAR),Science Applications (SAIC), Ollie's Outlet (OLLI), Signet Jewelers (SIG)Weibo (WB), Hello Group (MOMO) Macroeconomics and major events 29.08.2022 - 4.09.202230.08GermanyGermany Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) (Aug) USCB Consumer Confidence (Aug)JOLTS Job Openings (July)31.08RussiaWeekly inflationChinaPMIs (Aug)GermanyGermany Unemployment Change (Aug)EUConsumer price index (CPI) (YoY) (Aug) USADP nonfarm payrolls (June)Crude oil stocks01.09ChinaManufacturing PMI from Caixin (Aug)GermanyManufacturing activity index (PMI) (Aug)USInitial jobless claimsISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)02.09USNon-farm payroll change (Aug)Rate of unemployment ...

Chinese investors come out to mass protests. For example, on July 10, thousands of people came to the branch of the People's Bank of China in Zhenzhou, since their deposits in 4 banks have been frozen since April:Yuzhou Xinminsheng Village;Zhecheng Huanghuai Community;Shangcai Huimin County;New Oriental County Bank.How it happened: why depositors lost access to their savingsThere are a lot of regional private banks in China, they are also called "rural". According to the law, they must carry out their activities exclusively "at the place of residence". But in practice, this did not prevent them from attracting deposits from people from all over the Middle Kingdom through online platforms - including Du Xiaoman Financial and JD Finance, owned by Baidu and JD.com . And the authorities just turned a blind eye to it.However, recently the national regulator accused a major shareholder of the four listed banks, Henan New Fortune Group, of illegally attracting depositors' money.Did Covid hit the discontented?The authorities, alas, are clearly not on the side of the victims.The first protests took place back in May, the next action was to take place in mid-June - cheated depositors from all over China were going to come to it. But then their electronic "health codes" suddenly changed from green to red, which means that a person is sick with covid and must stay at home in quarantine. So it didn't work out to get together.Well, at the rally on July 10, the security forces, both in uniform and in civilian clothes, penetrated into the crowd and began beating the protesters.But what about deposit insurance?In banks, customers were told that deposit products were legal and protected by the deposit insurance system. In China, deposits of 500,000 yuan (~$75,000) are guaranteed in case of bank bankruptcy. But if a government investigation finds the deposits "not in accordance with the law," then the depositors will never see their money.It is also unknown who exactly has to pay the debts of "rural" banks: local authorities or central ones? However, after the latest protests, it was reported that the first payments to victims of the banking industry should take place this Friday.What is happening in China in July 2022?Social tension in China is growing, and more and more often you can hear about the clashes of the population with the authorities: people are locked up in factories, then they do not give out deposits. But the 20th Party Congress is on the nose.China is not such a communist country. When it comes to financial pyramids and the interests of banks, such a draconian version of capitalism is flourishing in the country that Wall Street is resting.So far, the protests are centered around four small banks. In total, there are about 4,000 such "banks" in China, which collectively control assets worth $14 trillion. But who are they lending to? What if the problems of the first 4 swallows are directly related to problems in the real sector?For example, the combined sales of 100 leading developers have already "collapsed" by half, the construction sector (30% of China's GDP) can pull the entire Chinese economy with it.  And this, in turn, is able to "test the strength" of a larger number of banks and the entire deposit insurance ...

Shanghai is the industrial center of China with the world's largest deep-water port in terms of cargo turnover. The closure of the city for a lockdown hit the retail trade hard, so after the information about the partial lifting of the bans appeared, the shares of retailers rose in price. Now the authorities are gradually opening supermarkets, shopping centers and pharmacies, allowing them to work at 75% capacity. But for retailers, this is a good sign of an increase in profits in the near future.The lockdown in China seriously affected the consumption of petroleum products and reduced the demand for black gold on the world market, which has already been reflected in Brent quotes. In the coming days, transport should start operating in Shanghai, which will reunite the most populous city with the main part of China, against this background, demand for petroleum products will begin to recover. An increase in industrial activity will also contribute to the growth of demand for black gold in the country, as the purchasing managers' index in the manufacturing sector (PMI) rose to 49.6 this month. Despite the fact that economic growth is indicated by data above 50, a sharp jump from 47.4 to 49.6 in May of this year already indicates a recovery in business activity of enterprises. Against the background of growing demand for petroleum products in China, we can also expect an increase in world prices for black gold to $120 per barrel of Brent.Retailers expect the shares of oil and logistics companies to rise, as they, too, should become beneficiaries of the recovery of the Chinese economy. In addition, the shares of electric vehicle manufacturers are expected to grow, as the country's authorities have included subsidies for electric vehicles in the list of stimulating economic activity. This will stimulate their sales and have a positive impact on the financial results of the ...

China may start pouring liquidity into the economy to maintain growth in the second half of the year, and this could have a positive effect on Chinese stocks.Top leaders of China at the Politburo meeting announced targeted support for the economy, as risks to growth increase.China's Manufacturing PMI was released yesterday, reflecting signs of a slowdown in economic activity. China's production grew at the slowest pace in 16 months.The new coronavirus outbreak is of great concern for continued growth in China's economic activity. China is facing the Delta option and the government is trying to stem the spread by imposing restrictions that could slow the economy down.Given the already existing factors of slowing economic activity and the government's announcement of support, it is likely that the Chinese government will have to increase its bond issuance to support the economy. The increase in bond issuance will force the Central Bank of China to ease monetary policy and increase liquidity in order to control the rise in bond yields.But how much will the People's Bank of China increase liquidity, and how will it help investors? If we take into account the past statements of the Central Bank of China that monetary policy will remain "flexible", then huge injections can not be expected. The People's Bank of China will strive to control excess liquidity in order to avoid rising inflation, although even here the Central Bank of China has somewhere to scatter, since China does not have strong problems with rising prices.The People's Bank of China will continue to soften monetary policy in the old footsteps, through reducing the collateral for banks' reserves. But it is also possible that if the economy needs more liquidity, then there is room for lower interest rates due to low inflation in the country.The increase in cash liquidity is likely to help the sagging Chinese companies after the regulatory crackdown to find support and restore investor ...

China's Statistical Office reported a 1% rise in consumer prices in July compared to prices that were in effect a year ago. In the previous month, inflation was 1.1%. Analysts predicted a slowdown in price growth in July to 0.8%. According to the results of seven months of this year, inflation in China amounted to 0.6% in annual terms. The cost of services increased by 1.6% last month. Prices for goods belonging to the non-food group rose by 2.1%. At the same time, food prices fell by 3.7%. The cost of health care and education services increased in July in annual terms by 0.4% and 2.7%, respectively. Transport and communications rose 6.9%. Housing prices rose 1.1%. Inflation in Chinese cities was 1.2%, in villages - 0.4%. The Statistical Office of the country also reported a rise in producer prices in July by 0.9%. In the previous month, inflation was recorded at the level of 8.8%. In 2020, inflation in China was below the official forecast. It amounted to 2.5% with the forecast of price growth by 3.5%. The government expects that this year will end with inflation of ...

This week turned out to be difficult for Chinese companies and their investors, as we have already told about on our telegram channel.Beijing's new measures against the national education sector, the volume of which is estimated at $ 120 billion, provoked a collapse in the shares of local Edtech companies. After them, the papers of the IT giants of the PRC also flew down.The sharp sell-off of shares of educational companies threatened undesirable side effects in other sectors of the local stock market, as well as in the debt and foreign exchange markets of the PRC. Realizing this, the country's authorities decided to intervene in the situation.  To calm the financial markets, the Chinese securities regulator (CSRC) held a meeting on Wednesday evening, July 28, with the heads of the world's leading investment banks, including Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and UBS.At the meeting, the CSRC vice chairman assured bankers that the current tough measures were not aimed at artificially separating the Chinese and American financial markets from each other. The official policy will continue to be more stable, which will avoid sharp volatility in the markets, the official said.At the same time, the quasi-state newspaper China Daily reported that Beijing continues to support domestic companies seeking to list abroad, and regulators will soon present additional measures to further open the Chinese capital market to foreign companies.As we can see, the efforts of the authorities to calm investors have borne fruit: the fall of the Chinese stock market has stopped, and there has been a rebound.But at the same time, there was no good news for the education sector. The statements made calmed the market, but they do not negate the fact that China still plans to isolate the education industry from the influx of foreign investment and is not going to reconsider its ...

Many investors pay attention to the Chinese yuan as an alternative option for savings and investments.  Is it worth investing in the yuan now? It is far from easy to answer. It is necessary to assess a number of factors: the development of the Chinese economy, the role of the yuan in the international market and their prospects, the monetary and financial policy of the Chinese authorities, etc.China in the global economyFor more than 11 years, the Chinese economy has been considered the second largest in the world ranking. It's hard to argue against statistics. Indeed, in terms of nominal GDP since 2010, the People's Republic of China has pushed Japan and ranked second after the United States. According to the IMF, by the end of 2021, the situation has not changed qualitatively: China, with $17.5 trillion of nominal GDP, is still inferior to the United States with $23 trillion. But is such an assessment objective enough? Firstly, the economy of any country is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon. It is impossible to assess its level only by one indicator. Secondly, nominal GDP is not very suitable for comparing the economies of different countries. It consists of the actual volume of products produced at current prices, and for comparison with other countries it is converted into US dollars. That is, nominal GDP has 3 components:physical volume of production,prices for it in the country,the exchange rate of the domestic currency to USD.The actual level of the economy is determined by the actual physical volume of what is produced. In nominal GDP, it is distorted by current prices, which change due to inflation. The higher it is, the higher the nominal GDP. For example, the Government of Ukraine announced a phenomenal GDP growth in 2021, which exceeded the record 2013. Nominal GDP did grow, but ... thanks to a 39% increase in producer prices. And in comparable prices in 2021, it amounted to only 92% of 2013.Taking into account the shortcomings of nominal GDP, it is customary to conduct international comparisons on gross domestic product at purchasing power parity (GDP PPP). At least that's what the World Bank and the IMF are doing. GDP PPP is determined by taking into account the ratio of the number of monetary units with which a certain basket of basic goods can be purchased in the compared countries.Unlike nominal GDP, PPP is adjusted to the actual price level in the country and reflects the physical volume of products produced.Read more: USD/CNH - description, characteristics, forecasts and feautures of pairThe share of the Chinese and American economies in the world GDP PPPIn terms of GDP PPP, the Chinese economy has been in first place in the world since 2016. The share in the global GDP of the PPP of the Chinese and American economies in % is shown in the graph: Changes in the share of GDP PPP of various regions in the world economy for 1981-2021Changes in the % share of GDP PPP of various regions in the world economy for 1981-2021 and the IMF forecast for 2027 are reflected in the histogram:As we can see, Europe and America, including the USA, have been losing leading positions to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (ATO) since 2001, among which China holds the leading place. This trend, according to the IMF forecast, will even increase by 2027.Read more: Volatility: how to ride the waves of the market correctly and safelyThe GDP growth rates of a number of countries per year on average for the designated periodsThe GDP growth rates of a number of countries per year on average for the designated periods in % and the IMF forecast for 2027 are reflected in the following histogram:The growth rate of China's economy is gradually decreasing, but significantly exceeds this indicator for th e United States, Europe and the world as a whole. In other words, China's leading economic position will only strengthen in the near future.China is the world's leading exporter. According to the World Trade Organization, exports by major regions, China and the United States as a% of world exports are as follows.Exports by major regions to China and the USA as a percentage of global exportsChina is steadily increasing its share in world exports, while the US share is steadily declining.In terms of imports, China is in second place in the world, behind the leadership of the United States. At the same time, the trade balance (the difference between the value of exports and imports) for China, it is positive, and for the United States, it is negative.Trade balance in % of GDP of China and the USA since 2013A positive trade balance contributes to the accumulation of reserves and the strengthening of the national currency. Negative – on the contrary. In addition, with a negative balance sheet, there is a problem of increasing external debt.China's external debt in relation to GDP is one of the lowest in the world.The situation with the PRC's public debt is not as rosy as with the external one. However, the public debt is at a quite acceptable level, which, according to the recommendations of the World Bank, should not exceed 77% of GDP.To service and repay public and foreign debt, China has the largest gold and foreign exchange reserves in the world.Read more: US national debt: why it is growing all the timeThe structure of China's international reserves as of 01.01.2022So the yuan is clearly not in danger of default in the coming years. However, the structure of China's international reserves, taking into account today's geopolitics, does not seem quite successful:China has the world's largest banking system. At the beginning of 2021, the total assets of Chinese banks amounted to 319.7 trillion. yuan, which is equivalent to $49.2 trillion. This is 2.4 times more than the assets of US banks, which amounted to $20.6 trillion on the same date. All four largest banks in the world are Chinese (the amount of assets is indicated on 01.01.2021):The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) is the largest on the planet with assets of more than $4 trillion;China Construction Bank (CCB) - $3.4 trillion;Agricultural Bank of China (AGBank) - $3.3 trillion.Bank of China (Bank of China) - $3 trillion.According to most of the economic indicators considered, China occupies a leading position in the world and has good prospects for further development. The USA and European countries are gradually losing their positions to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, and, first of all, to China. However, the Chinese economy is strongly tied to the US dollar.Read more: About the SWIFT Global Interbank SystemThe Yuan in the global economyThe currency system of the People's Republic of China is quite diverse. The main monetary unit is the yuan (international designation CNY). One yuan is divided into 10 fyns, and 1 fyn is divided into 10 jiao.Offshore yuan (CNH) is used for turnover outside mainland China, mostly in Hong Kong, and settlements with non-residents. The exchange rates of the yuan and the offshore yuan in relation to other currencies practically coincide, differing mostly by fractions of a percent. Two special administrative regions of China have their own currencies: in Hong Kong - Hong Kong dollar, and in Macau - pataka. In addition to circulation in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong dollar is quite actively used in international settlements with a share by the end of 2021. 0.92% according to SWIFT (International Banking Information Transfer System).Change in the share of the yuan in international settlements in % since 2011The share of the yuan in settlements using SWIFT is relatively insignificant, although it tends to increase:Change in the share of the yuan in international settlements since 2011The share of the yuan in international foreign exchange reserves is similar. Read more: SONIA Interest Rate: calculation and applicationChange in the share of the yuan in international foreign exchange reserves from 2016 to early 2022Since 2015, the yuan has been included in the basket of special drawing rights of the IMF – SDR (a kind of IMF currency intended for lending to Central banks). In this basket, the yuan ranks third:The position of the yuan in the basket of special drawing rights of the IMF SDR on 01.01.2022.But this is rather a matter of prestige, which has little to do with real economic development.The capitalization of the Chinese stock market, which is an important way to increase demand for the yuan, is also inferior to the country's role in the global economy.Read more: What is the SOFR interest rate?According to the main parameters, the share of the yuan among world currencies lags significantly behind the economic weight of China in the world. This share is gradually increasing, but the growth rate is insignificant. The reason is the opposition from the United States and leading European countries. It is stated that the yuan exchange rate is artificially undervalued, demands are made for the complete cessation of its state regulation, for the revaluation of the yuan (i.e., an increase in its exchange rate against other currencies), etc. These conditions are unacceptable for China. Their implementation would lead to a decrease in the competitiveness of Chinese products, a decrease in revenue in yuan from exports and corresponding budget revenues. The real meaning of such claims is to preserve the dominant position of the US dollar in international settlements and reserves by any means. This makes it possible to control not only money, but also commodity flows, to block export-import channels, freeze foreign exchange reserves, limit the possibility of repayment of external debt, creating a situation of artificial default, as well as shift their economic problems to the shoulders of other countries. For example, in order to repay the external debt, any country needs to produce and sell real products for USD, and the United States simply "prints" dollars, which are readily accepted by most countries. The "printing press" is also being launched to solve internal economic problems. So, to support the economy in the covid crisis, the United States issued about $6.5 trillion in 2020-2021. Naturally, such actions lead to a decrease in the purchasing power of the dollar, inflation, covering not only the United States, but also the whole world, depreciation of foreign exchange reserves.This situation does not suit China, which is taking measures to reduce the role of the dollar in the world and strengthen the position of the yuan:A free trade zone was established in Hainan (2018).Restrictions on foreign investment in a number of sectors of the economy have been lifted (2018-2021).The law on foreign organizations has been adopted, creating favorable conditions for investment (2020).On January 1, 2022, the Agreement on China's accession to the world's largest free Trade zone - a comprehensive regional economic partnership that unites 15 ATO states - came into force.In 2015, China created its own payment system CIPS (Cross-border Interbank Payment System) – an analogue of the SWIFT system. In 2021, international settlements for 80 trillion were made through CIPS. yuan ($12.68 trillion). Taking into account this amount, the share of the yuan (CIPS + SWIFT) will be almost 13%, not 2.23%, as SWIFT shows.At the beginning of 2020, China began testing an "electronic" yuan based on blockchain technology. To date, this system is being tested in a number of provinces of China. With the introduction of electronic currency on a national scale, a significant weakening of the yuan-dollar relationship is expected.Monetary policy of the People's Republic of ChinaInflation in China and the United StatesIt is known that China's economy is subject to rather strict state regulation. This applies, perhaps, primarily to monetary and monetary policy. The Government of the People's Republic of China has managed to ensure for quite a long time an acceptable inflation rate of about 2% per year:Only in the crisis of 2020, inflation at the moment jumped to 5.3% per annum, but by the beginning of 2021 it had dropped to -0.3%. In the USA, inflation during the period under review was at the level of China, but since the beginning of 2021, it has begun to grow significantly to 8.3% per annum for April 2022.Read more: Recession in the US in 2022Interest rates in the economies of China and the United StatesChanges in interest rates of the People's Bank of China and the US Federal Reserve are shown in the following chart:In China, the interest rate is consistently and steadily declining, providing cheaper loans and stimulating economic growth. In the US, it is very volatile. Moreover, changes are often influenced not by economic, but by political factors. So, in 2019, the rate increase occurred despite the opposition of then-President Trump and was a compromise.The exchange rate of CNY to USD since 1994 was set by the Chinese government initially at 8.7, and since 1995 in the range of 8.30-8.27. Since 2005, this rate has been changing towards the strengthening of the yuan and from 2008 to 2010 was fixed at 6.83. Since 2010, the exchange rate is formed on the stock exchange, but is maintained in the corridor 6-7 yuan for $1 thanks to the currency interventions of the People's Bank of China (sales or purchases of USD).  The dynamics of the yuan against the dollarDo I need the yuan to invest? It could only be required to invest directly on Chinese exchanges. There are three of them in China:Hong Kong (HKEX),Shanghai (SSE),Shenzhen (SZSE).The Chinese government does not welcome the influx of foreign capital into Chinese companies. Therefore, foreigners' access to the last two exchanges is completely closed.Read more: What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and its impact on financial marketsConclusionsThe Chinese economy occupies a leading position in the world in many respects. The main Chinese currency, the yuan, occupies a place in international settlements and reserves that clearly does not correspond to China's economic weight. The share of the yuan in international turnover is gradually growing and this trend is likely to continue in the future.But is the yuan so attractive from an investment point of view? Definitely not. The yuan has less liquidity. If the dollar is the world currency that can be paid in almost any country, then the Chinese Yuan in its cash form is possible to use only when traveling to China. Yuan can be converted in other countries of the world to the same dollar or euro, but it is quite possible that there will be no benefit from such a conversion. It is also worth remembering that in the current conditions of increasing inflation exceeding interest on bank deposits, the yuan, like other currencies, is not suitable as a means of saving ...

The US Dollar – Chinese Yuan currency pair is very interesting because it has two parallel rates at once: the official PRC (USD/CNY pair) and the so-called "offshore Chinese yuan" USD/CNH.There is nothing criminal here, and a separate course with the CNH ticker was specially created by the Bank of China and the leadership of Hong Kong to attract international investors, since the official yuan exchange rate (or, the so-called "onshore", has the CNY ticker) is strictly regulated by the state and is intended only for internal use and trading in the country.The CNY rate cannot deviate by more than 2% from the price recommended by the People's Bank of China.USD/CNH forecast for today onlineUse forecasts for today, compiled on the basis of signals from more than 15 technical analysis indicators, to verify your USD/CNH analytics.It is difficult to make an accurate forecast for USDCNH on your own, because regulating the CNY of the People's Bank of China, one way or another, but the offshore yuan is also regulated, so no fundamental factors or objective indicator readings can guarantee anything and accurately predict the actions of the government.So far, it looks like the Chinese leadership will continue to deliberately devalue the national currency in order to help its exports in the trade war with the United States.The USD/CNH chart is most closely related to the intra-Chinese USD/CNY, the differences with which are usually small.Below we will show an example of earnings on the USD/CNH currency pair and how much income it can bring.Read more: USD/SGD: exchange rate online, signals and forecast for todayGeneral characteristicsThe USDCNH US Dollar/Chinese Offshore Yuan currency pair is an exotic pair in the Forex market, most popular among traders from Hong Kong. The base currency is the American currency, which is purchased for Chinese yuan (direct quotation). The price is displayed in most terminals up to four characters after the separator (for example, 6,8626). In some cases, a trader may encounter the withdrawal of a five-digit quote (6.86250).USDCNH is a financial instrument, the level of volatility of which is quite commensurate with most popular Forex pairs (150-210 points per day). The greatest activity is manifested on Thursday, but Tuesday and Wednesday are also slightly behind in terms of trading volumes.By the hour, the greatest spikes in volatility are observed in the intervals from 00:00-02:00 and up to 13:00 GTM, which corresponds to the Asian and European trading sessions.Factors influencing the USD/CNH exchange rate and what quotes depend onWhen going to perform an analysis, it should be borne in mind that the pair with CNH began to appear at auction only since 2010, but since it almost completely repeats the movements of CNY, it is possible to take data for earlier periods based on the onshore rate.The difference in the value of the price between the pair presented in this review with the "offshore yuan" and the "onshore" exchange rate of the Chinese currency to the US dollar is, as a rule, only a few points, and their movement almost always occurs parallel to each other.Dollar and Yuan analytics: When trading the Dollar against the Offshore Yuan, a breakdown strategy works with placing pending orders before the opening of the Hong Kong and Singapore exchanges at the start of the Asian session (not at the opening of the Tokyo Stock Exchange at 00:00 GMT, namely, at 01:00 GMT, when trading starts in Hong Kong).In order to correctly predict the dynamics of the pair for the future and conduct trading with maximum profit, you need to be able to perform not only technical, but also fundamental analysis well, and for this, you need to have a clear understanding of the structures of the economies of both countries, whose currencies are present in the pair.The American economy is still the largest in the world and one of the most developed and efficient. The share of the services sector and trade accounts for about 79.6%. These are banking, law, consulting brokerage and other services, hotel and restaurant business, small and medium-sized trade. Industry gives the country an average of 19.2% of GDP. Agriculture accounts for the least – only about 1.2%.Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewThe United States is the leader today and in the near future does not intend to give anyone the world economic and political primacy, but China is constantly increasing its influence and is getting closer every year, having already moved Japan to third place.China, first of all, is known as an industrial power and a "world factory", but in fact the main place in terms of the percentage of the country's GDP is already occupied by the service sector – about 50.7% and only then – production from 40.7%. Agriculture also accounts for an impressive 8.6% of GDP, which is quite a lot in comparison with other countries.Tourism plays a big, but far from the main role for both countries. As for foreign trade, the United States is one of the main partners of China (trade with the "Celestial Empire" plays an important role for the United States), both in terms of exports and imports. A large trade turnover is conducted by China with countries such as South Korea and Japan; for the United States, it is Canada and Mexico.Comparison with other charts can be a good help for making a forecast. The maximum direct correlation on the daily timeframe for today is observed with: USD/HUF - 87.4%, USD/SGD - 86.2%, US Dollar Index - 86.2%, USD/PLN - 85.6%, USD/CZK - 85.6%, USD/CHF - 85.5%, USD/NOK - 84.0% USD/CAD - 83.9%. The greatest inverse correlation is seen with the Euro/Dollar – -85.5%, NZD/USD – -83.6%, as well as platinum and palladium charts – -81.7% and -80.6%, respectively.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayThe main factors on which the dynamics of the pair depends should first of all include:Purchasing power of the main trading partners (USA, Japan, South Korea). If they grow, the yuan will strengthen, and the pair will go down accordingly.Energy prices and raw materials in general (China is the "factory of the world", which constantly requires a huge amount of material and energy to produce goods). Falling prices for raw materials and oil strengthens the yuan, respectively, the pair is falling.The size of interest rates and statements of the heads of the Central Bank.Reduction/increase of customs duties on Chinese goods in large importing countries of Chinese products.Features of the currency pairAn important feature of this instrument is the low price of a point, which will be ten times less in comparison with the Euro /Dollar, coupled with a decent spread and average volatility, does not make USD/CNH attractive to scalpers.But medium- and long-term positional traders may like the pair. However, there is one significant nuance – large swaps, which, if you hold buy positions for a long time, can cause significant losses, however, when opening long-term sell orders on a bearish trend, there is a good opportunity for Carry ...