WTI Crude Oil Trading forecasts and signals - page 2

GBP/USD: the pound is consolidating in anticipation of the latest statisticsThe GBP/USD pair is showing a moderate correction, holding near the 1.3112 mark. The decline in the US currency creates additional support for the pound, while the British currency remains stable due to a number of external factors.The incoming UK macro statistics did not cause a pronounced reaction from market participants. According to Nationwide Building Society, housing prices remained unchanged month-on-month in March, despite a projected 0.2% increase and an annual rate of 3.9%. Traders are focusing on the publication of final data on business activity indices: in the services sector, the indicator is expected to rise from 51.0 to 53.2 points, and the composite index from 50.5 to 52.0 points, which may reflect a recovery in business confidence.Meanwhile, the US dollar index (USDX) continues to decline, trading near the 102.70 mark and updating the annual low below the 103.00 level. Despite the positive labor market, pressure on the dollar is increasing due to the escalation of trade policy. President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a new package of tariffs that will affect all states that have taken retaliatory measures: duties for China will amount to 34.0%, for the European Union — 20.0%, and for Japan — 24.0%. The White House is also considering the idea of a mandatory minimum trade tax of 10.0% for all partner countries. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had previously negotiated the possible exclusion of the kingdom from this list, but on the eve he admitted that it would not be possible to avoid duties, and the country should prepare for tougher conditions. In 2024, the share of trade with the United States reached 17.0% of the total foreign economic turnover of the United Kingdom.Resistance levels: 1.3210, 1.3420.Support levels: 1.3030, 1.2760.USD/JPY: bearish signals are intensifyingThe USD/JPY pair continues to move within the framework of a downward correction, holding near the level of 147.26 against the background of weak trading activity on the yen due to increased global uncertainty.On Tuesday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed concern about increased trade restrictions from the United States. As it became known, additional fees will be added to the existing duties on steel and aluminum imports, as a result of which the cumulative rate on Japanese products sent to the United States may reach 24.0%. Ueda stressed that this issue will be raised at the upcoming G20 summit in Washington, and it is too early to talk about the consequences for domestic consumption and investment before it is held, instructing analysts to conduct a detailed assessment and develop preventive support measures. Against the background of this rhetoric, macroeconomic indicators remained in the shadows: net purchases of foreign bonds decreased to -5.9 billion yen from -233.7 billion yen a week earlier, and foreign investments in Japanese stocks amounted to - 450.4 billion yen after -1.2 trillion yen.Resistance levels: 148.60, 152.40.Support levels: 146.50, 143.20.Silver market analysisThe XAG/USD pair is showing a steady decline in morning trading, continuing the downward movement that began at the end of the previous week, when silver prices failed to stay near the local highs of October 23. The instrument is currently trading around the 33.20 mark, while investors are carefully assessing the consequences of the latest decision by US President Donald Trump to impose large-scale retaliatory tariffs against all states that restrict access to American products on their markets.According to the White House's initiative, the base duty rate is set at 10.0%, while mirror measures will be applied in an amount proportional to restrictions from other countries. For example, according to Trump, if the European Union withholds a tax of 39.0%, the United States will impose 20.0% in response. Specific values have already been published: China — 34.0%, Taiwan — 32.0%, Switzerland — 31.0%, Great Britain — 10.0%. Additionally, 25.0% tariffs on all imported cars will come into force on April 3, and on component parts from May 3. Market participants fear that these measures could provoke a large-scale deterioration in trade relations and create serious risks for the global economy, including causing a new wave of pressure on the US dollar. It also poses potential threats to the industrial sector, especially given the high proportion of silver in production chains — about 70% of the total supply is used for industrial purposes. The main supplies come from Canada and Mexico, which have already imposed mirror duties on American goods, including silver, totaling 30.0 billion Canadian dollars.Despite the current risks, the silver market remains positive in the long term. According to the Silver Institute, global demand for the metal may reach historic highs in 2025, primarily due to the rapid growth of the solar panel and electric vehicle industries. Physical mining is also showing steady growth: in 2024, First Majestic Silver Corp. It achieved a record production volume of 10.3 million ounces at the Santa Elena field, which is 7% higher than the results of the previous year.Resistance levels: 33.42, 33.75, 34.26, 34.57.Support levels: 33.00, 32.72, 32.27, 32.00.Oil market analysisDuring trading in Asia, WTI Crude Oil prices continue to decline, developing a downward movement that began on Tuesday. Currently, quotes are trying to overcome the support level around $ 69.45 per barrel, while the US republican administration's trade strategy has a significant impact on market dynamics. Investors are reacting with concern to statements from the White House, where protectionist initiatives are intensifying that could affect global energy flows.Additional pressure on the oil market was exerted by news about the possible introduction of a new package of sanctions against Russian oil supplies. A group of American senators has proposed the establishment of ultra-high tariffs of 500% on imports from countries that continue to purchase hydrocarbons from Russia, in case Moscow, in their opinion, delays the process of reaching peace agreements on the Ukrainian conflict. For comparison, similar secondary measures in force against Venezuela involve a tax of only 25%, which underlines the potential severity of the new sanctions pressure.The decline in prices is also supported by negative statistics from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA): oil reserves for the week ended March 28 unexpectedly increased by 6.165 million barrels, despite analysts' expectations of a decrease of 2.0 million barrels. A week earlier, stocks, on the contrary, decreased by 3.341 million barrels. An additional factor of instability was the situation around Kazakhstan, which has been exceeding OPEC+ production quotas for the third month in a row. In March, production in the country reached 1.880 million barrels per day with a quota of 1.468 million. The overall growth is attributed to high production activity at the Tengiz field and stable loading by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. In 2023, the country reached a historic record for total oil and gas condensate production of 8.95 million tons per month, equivalent to 2.17 million barrels per day. All this puts additional pressure on OPEC+'s attempts to stabilize the market.Resistance levels: 69.50, 70.00, 70.34, 71.00.Support levels: 69.00, 68.25, 67.50, ...

EUR/USD: ECB comments shift market sentimentThe single European currency is showing a steady strengthening in the EUR/USD pair at auction in Asia, offsetting the losses of the previous day, when the instrument updated the local lows recorded on March 5. The pair is currently trying to overcome resistance around 1.0780, and bidders continue to look for new catalysts for further movement amid growing geopolitical and economic tensions. One of the key factors is the harsh protectionism of the United States: the White House administration has confirmed its intention to impose 25% duties on all imports of passenger cars, as well as on the most important components - from engines to transmissions and electronic systems.Additional attention of market participants is focused on the statements of representatives of the European Central Bank. Piero Cipollone, a member of the ECB Governing Council, said that the situation is in favor of a softer monetary policy: lower energy prices, rising real yields, the strengthening of the euro and international trade tensions create reasonable conditions for a return to a rate below 2.00%. In turn, the head of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, stressed the need for a pragmatic approach, focusing on projected inflation rather than hypothetical neutral rate levels. In March, the ECB lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points: the base rate was set at 2.65%, the deposit rate at 2.50%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%. The next ECB meeting will be held on April 17 and, judging by the rhetoric of officials, it may again bring decisions in favor of easing.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0654.USD/CAD: local weakening of the bullish trendThe USD/CAD pair is holding slightly above the key support level of 1.4257 and shows an increased likelihood of its breakdown downwards, as the Canadian currency strengthens amid growing concerns about US trade duties.Investors are increasingly considering a compromise scenario between Washington and Ottawa that could lead to an easing or partial lifting of restrictive measures, as well as analyzing Canada's retaliatory actions, including "mirror duties" as a tool to stabilize market sentiment. Additional support for the Canadian dollar is provided by confident macro statistics: in February, the consumer price index added 1.1% month—on-month, exceeding forecasts of 0.6%, and reached 2.6% year-on-year against expectations of 2.2%, which increases the chances of the Bank of Canada maintaining the current interest rate at 2.75% following the meeting on April 16.Resistance levels: 1.4480, 1.4665.Support levels: 1.4257, 1.4150, 1.3950.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair continues to move in a steady upward channel, holding above the psychological mark of $3,000,0 per ounce against a confident fundamental background, contributing to an increase in interest in gold as a defensive asset.Last week it became known that the Chinese authorities launched a pilot project allowing ten leading insurance companies in the country to carry out operations with precious metals through standard contractual schemes. The first deal under the new initiative was concluded on March 25 between China Life Insurance and China Pacific Life Insurance and was a series of applications for spot trading in gold. Despite the limit of 1.0% of the total capital available for participation in such activities, the program may significantly increase interest in instruments related to precious metals, since the total revenues of the insurance sector of China have already exceeded 700 billion dollars. According to analysts at Bank of America Corp., the potential volume of demand from these organizations may reach 300 tons, which corresponds to about 6.5% of the global annual turnover in the gold market.Resistance levels: 3060.0, 3170.0.Support levels: 3000.0, 2860.0.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to rise modestly, remaining within the upward correction and consolidating above the level of $ 73.00 per barrel.Optimism in the market is formed against the background of the latest decisions of the OPEC+ alliance, suggesting a gradual easing of production restrictions in the total volume of 2.2 million barrels per day over the next 18 months. Although April was supposed to be the starting point of this process, the parameters of the first stage have already been adjusted due to the systematic excess of existing quotas by a number of countries. The updated production growth schedule clarifies that almost all parties to the agreement, with the exception of Algeria, are required to compensate for past deviations, which reduced the total volume of the April increase to 88.0 thousand barrels per day. Nevertheless, representatives of the cartel do not rule out a return to a tougher policy as early as June, if the recovery in demand from China turns out to be weaker than expected: recall that in 2024, China provided only 34.0% of the global increase in oil consumption (500.0 thousand barrels per day), against 50.0% in previous years. According to current forecasts, additional demand from the Chinese economy may decrease to 300.0 thousand barrels in 2025.Resistance levels: 73.70, 77.10.Support levels: 72.10, ...

EUR/USD: Bundestag supports expansion of defense budgetThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/USD pair during Asian trading, correcting from yesterday's local highs. The instrument is testing the 1.0928 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for new fundamental factors to appear that can set the direction of price movement.The key event of today will be the publication of February inflation data in the eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+2). The core consumer price index is expected to remain at the same level of 2.6% in annual terms and 0.6% on a monthly basis, while the harmonized index will maintain values of 2.4% and 0.5%, respectively. In the meantime, traders are analyzing data on business sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) published the day before: the German economic expectations index increased from 26.0 points to 51.6 points in March, significantly exceeding forecasts of 48.1 points. However, the index of assessment of the current economic situation decreased from -88.5 points to -87.6 points, which is worse than the expected value of -80.5 points. The same indicator for the eurozone rose from 24.2 points to 39.8 points, which only slightly exceeded the consensus forecast of analysts (39.6 points).Additional support for the euro was provided by the approval by the Bundestag of a bill on a significant increase in the national debt to finance defense and infrastructure spending: 513 deputies voted for it, 207 against it. The document is aimed at stimulating the German economy, which is under serious pressure due to high energy prices and increased competition from the United States and China. ECB Board member Olli Rehn noted that the tough trade policy of the White House has already negatively affected the growth of the European economy, but increasing domestic investment may become a driver of its recovery. At the same time, the EU member states of NATO will have to additionally allocate over 500 billion euros annually to meet Washington's requirements to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.Resistance levels: 1.0954, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0871, 1.0838, 1.0800.USD/CHF: economists are confident of reducing the SNB rate to 0.25%After two days of active decline, during which the USD/CHF pair updated its minimum levels since March 10, the instrument demonstrates a moderate correction in morning trading, testing the 0.8770 mark for a downward breakdown. Investors remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, the outcome of which may become a key driver for further price movements.On Thursday at 09:00 (GMT+2), Switzerland will publish foreign trade data for February: in the previous month, exports increased to 24.45 billion francs, imports to 18.33 billion francs, and the trade surplus amounted to 6.12 billion francs. A meeting of the Swiss National Bank (NBS) will be held at 10:30 (GMT+2), and according to a Reuters poll, 90% of 32 analysts predict an interest rate cut to 0.25%, where it is likely to remain at least until 2026. This step is due to the fact that inflation in the country reached a four-year low of 0.3% in February, which confirms control over price pressure. However, the weakening of the franc in recent months poses risks of a repeat increase in inflation in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 0.8800, 0.8827, 0.8863, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8758, 0.8730, 0.8700, 0.8669.GBP/USD: traders don't expect surprises from the Fed and the Bank of EnglandThe GBP/USD pair is correcting near the 1.2986 mark, receiving support against the background of the weakening of the US currency.The pound is showing a neutral movement ahead of the Bank of England meeting, which will be held tomorrow at 14:00 (GMT+2): most analysts expect the interest rate to remain at 4.50%, despite attempts by representatives of the regulator Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra to achieve a more aggressive reduction of 25 basis points. At 09:00 (GMT+2), market participants will pay attention to the January employment data, however, according to preliminary forecasts, they will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the pound.The US dollar is trading at 103.00 in USDX, trying to break down the key level for the first time since October. Today, investors' main attention is focused on the US Federal Reserve meeting, the decision of which will be announced at 20:00 (GMT+2): the probability of maintaining the rate in the range of 4.25–4.50% is estimated by the CME FedWatch Tool at 99.0%. Market confidence in the immutability of monetary policy parameters increased yesterday after the release of data on the real estate market: the volume of new home construction in February increased sharply from 1,350 million to 1,501 million, reaching a maximum over the past 13 months and confirming the recovery of the construction sector.Resistance levels: 1.3030, 1.3180.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2770.Crude Oil market analysisThe price of Brent Crude Oil is moving in an upward trend, staying below the level of 70.00, due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and the intensification of trade disputes between the United States and its key partners. On Tuesday, the Israeli army again attacked positions of the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, and the US armed forces attacked targets of the Yemeni Houthis. At the same time, President Donald Trump made a statement in which he blamed Iran for supporting this armed group.At the same time, investors are monitoring data on fuel reserves, which, according to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), increased from 4,247 million barrels to 4,593 million barrels, which may affect further market dynamics. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2): preliminary forecasts suggest an increase in reserves from -1.448 million to 0.800 million barrels. If official statistics confirm an increase in storage volumes, oil may come under pressure amid fears of a slowdown in demand.Resistance levels: 70.90, 76.10.Support levels: 68.70, ...

GBP/USD: lower inflation in the US supports the poundThe pound sterling is strengthening in the GBP/USD pair, correcting against the background of the weakening of the US dollar and trading near the 1.2960 mark.Additional support for the British currency is provided by macroeconomic factors: tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), UK GDP data is expected to be published. Experts predict a decrease in growth rates from 0.4% to 0.1% in monthly terms and a weakening from 1.5% in annual terms, which may strengthen the dovish mood of the Bank of England before the March 20 meeting. In addition, the regulator expanded its support for the banking sector, replacing weekly financing with semi—annual financing and allocating a record 2,127 trillion pounds as part of the REPO operation, the maximum amount since 2020.The US dollar is trying to regain its position, trading around 103.50 on the USDX index. The main focus of investors is yesterday's report on inflation in the United States: the consumer price index in February slowed from 0.4% to 0.2% in monthly terms and from 3.0% to 2.8% in annual terms, while the base indicator decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%. This dynamic reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve System (FRS) will keep the rate at 4.25–4.50% at its meeting next week.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3180.Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2760.USD/CHF: the pair maintains a sideways trendThe US dollar shows mixed dynamics in the USD/CHF pair during the Asian session, holding near the level of 0.8815: the activity of market participants remains low, despite the data on inflation in the United States published the day before.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), investors will focus on inflation in the US manufacturing sector: according to forecasts, the annual producer price index for February will slow down from 3.5% to 3.3%, and the monthly indicator will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. At the same time, the base index excluding food and energy resources is likely to remain at 3.6% in annual terms and 0.3% on a monthly basis. The markets also expect data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits: initial applications for the week ending March 7 may increase from 221.0 thousand to 225.0 thousand, and repeat applications (for the week of February 28) may increase from 1,897 million to 1,900 million. On Friday at 16:00 (GMT+2), the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for March will be published: experts expect a decrease from 64.7 to 63.4 points.In Switzerland, February data on producer and import price indices will be released at 09:30 (GMT+2): a moderate monthly increase is expected from 0.1% to 0.2%, and an annual fix at -0.3%. Probably, these indicators will not have a significant impact on the future steps of the Swiss National Bank in the field of monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.8827, 0.8851, 0.8875, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8800, 0.8776, 0.8758, 0.8730.USD/JPY: Dollar decline is gaining momentumThe US dollar is showing a decline in the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session, correcting positions after two days of growth, which allowed updating local highs from March 6. At the moment, quotes are testing the 147.85 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants expect new macroeconomic triggers to appear.Investors in Japan continue to analyze the revised gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2024, published the day before. According to updated estimates, the indicator increased by only 0.6% in quarterly terms instead of the expected 0.7%, and the annual dynamics was adjusted from 2.8% to 2.2%. The slowdown in economic growth creates additional challenges for the Bank of Japan, which is considering a tougher monetary policy, but faces risks related to the instability of the national economy.Resistance levels: 148.55, 149.19, 150.00, 150.50.Support levels: 148.00, 147.00, 146.00, 145.00.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to move in a downward trend, holding slightly above the level of $ 70.00 per barrel.In the middle of the week, the market showed a slight increase against the background of the publication of reports on fuel reserves in the United States, but the general vector of movement is determined by the statements of OPEC + about plans to gradually increase production. According to February data, the countries participating in the agreement, with the exception of states exempt from quotas, increased production by 313.0 thousand barrels per day, bringing it to 35.5 million barrels per day. This exceeds the originally planned volumes by 67.0 thousand barrels, and the main increase occurred in Iraq (130.0 thousand barrels per day), Nigeria (60.0 thousand) and Gabon (50.0 thousand).Data on oil reserves in the United States turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations. The American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded an increase in reserves of 4.247 million barrels after a decrease of 1.455 million barrels a week earlier. In turn, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in inventories by 3.614 million barrels, compared with 1.448 million barrels a week earlier.Resistance levels: 71.20, 74.80.Support levels: 68.80, ...

EUR/USD: technical analysis indicates continued growthThe EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, trading near the 1.0902 mark against the background of the weakening of the US dollar. Investors reacted positively to the results of the meeting between representatives of the United States and Ukraine, seeing them as a possible step towards resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but macroeconomic statistics turned out to be ambiguous and could not become a strong driver of price growth.Thus, German imports in January showed a slowdown from 1.6% to 1.2%, while exports moved to negative dynamics, falling from 2.5% to -2.5%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 20.7 billion euros to 16.0 billion euros. At the same time, industrial production accelerated from -1.5% to 2.0% in monthly terms and from -2.26% to -1.49% in annual terms over the same period. The head of the German Federal Bank, Joachim Nagel, expressed support for the initiatives of the future government aimed at easing budget constraints and creating a special fund in the amount of 500.0 billion euros to finance defense and infrastructure projects. At the same time, he stressed that for Germany's long-term economic growth, it is necessary to focus on increasing the supply of labor, reforming the energy sector, reducing bureaucratic barriers and reducing tax pressure on businesses.Resistance levels: 1.0950, 1.1110.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0680.AUD/USD: Australian dollar is holding at 0.6270After rising by 1.44% over the past week, the AUD/USD pair is consolidating at the 0.6270 support, awaiting the February US inflation data, which will be released today at 14:30 (GMT+2).Forecasts suggest that the consumer price index will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, which may increase pressure on the US dollar if the Fed signals a softer monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at the level of March 19 is 97.0%, and its reduction by 25 basis points in May is 40.9%.On Thursday at 02:30 (GMT+2), Australia will publish data on building permits for January: an increase of 6.3% on a monthly basis is expected, which may support the Australian currency. If the indicator is confirmed, it will be a signal of economic recovery after a prolonged recession since the end of 2023.Resistance levels: 0.6370, 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6270, 0.6147.Silver market analysisAfter a short-term consolidation below the 32.00 mark, the XAG/USD pair resumed its growth, which is due to the unique structure of demand for silver. Unlike platinum and palladium, this metal is in demand both in industry and among investors, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in market sentiment. An additional support factor was the growth in the number of Silver Institute participants: seven new companies joined the organization in 2024, and three more in the first two months of 2025, including Skeena Gold & Silver, Silver Tiger Metals, and TCA S.p.A.Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) confirms the increased interest in silver. In recent reporting periods, the number of manufacturers' long positions increased by 0.453 thousand, while sellers reduced volumes by 8,192 thousand contracts. The balance in the segment of positions secured by real capital remains on the side of the bulls — 47,823 thousand against 13,620 thousand for the bears, which indicates a high level of confidence in the asset.Resistance levels: 33.10, 34.80.Support levels: 32.30, 30.80.Crude Oil market analysisIn the morning trading, WTI Crude Oil continues to strengthen, developing the growth momentum that was formed the day before, and is testing the 66.30 level for an upward breakout. However, traders remain cautious, preferring to wait for the publication of US inflation data at 14:30 (GMT+2), which may affect the dynamics of quotations.According to preliminary forecasts, the core consumer price index for February will slow down to 3.2% in annual terms (against 3.3% earlier) and 0.3% on a monthly basis (from 0.4%), while the overall index will decrease from 3.0% to 2.9% and from 0.5% to 0.3%, respectively. Nevertheless, the dollar's reaction may be restrained, as investors are more focused on the trade policy of the Donald Trump administration. This month, 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% tariffs on a number of Chinese goods, have already entered into force, and new restrictions on steel and aluminum supplies to the United States are expected in the near future.Additional pressure on the market was exerted by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed an increase in oil reserves by 4.247 million barrels for the week of March 7 after a previous decrease of 1.455 million barrels, while experts predicted an increase of only 2.1 million barrels. At 15:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released, which, according to forecasts, will also reflect an increase in reserves by 2.1 million barrels after a previous increase of 3.614 million barrels. Additionally, the agency adjusted the forecast of oil production in 2025, increasing it by 20 thousand. barrels per day — up to 13.61 million barrels.Resistance levels: 67.00, 67.50, 68.25, 69.00.Support levels: 66.00, 64.96, 64.00, ...

EUR/USD: bulls get a chance to update local peaksDuring Asian trading, the European currency remains near the 1.0489 mark, correcting after the recent update of local highs on January 27. The market is showing restrained dynamics, as at the moment there are no important macroeconomic factors that can set the direction of movement. Investors focused on the possible resumption of tariff restrictions, which US President Donald Trump announced at the beginning of the month.Starting on March 4, 25% duties on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, which were previously postponed for a month as part of preliminary agreements, will come into force. At the same time, the introduction of similar measures against EU products is not excluded, as Trump has repeatedly accused Brussels of unfair trade policy towards the United States. Experts believe that pressure on the European Union may increase in the framework of negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, given the resistance of individual countries in the region. In addition, the US president has repeatedly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, which also causes controversy in international relations.The market's focus remains on the comments of European officials, which may give signals about the future monetary policy of the ECB. Pierre Wunsch, a member of the regulator's governing council and head of the National Bank of Belgium, called for a cautious approach to adjusting interest rates in order to avoid the risk of an excessive decline in the indicator. In turn, Joachim Nagel, President of the German Federal Bank, noted that price dynamics allow us to expect the target inflation rate to be reached this year. In this regard, market participants predict that the ECB will cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time at the next meeting, as inflation, which exceeded double digits after the events of 2022, has now stabilized just above 2.0%. Additionally, traders drew attention to the final German GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024: the country's economy shrank by -0.2% in quarterly terms and by -0.4% year-on-year, which coincided with analysts' forecasts.Resistance levels: 1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0654.Support levels: 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0342, 1.0300.GBP/USD: the market expects a rate cut of 75 bp during the yearThe GBP/USD pair shows a downward trend during the morning trading session, returning to a corrective decline. The exchange rate is testing support at 1.2640, while traders expect new factors to appear that could affect further movement. Market participants continue to analyze the macroeconomic statistics for last Friday, assessing its impact on the prospects of the British currency.The January retail sales data in the UK turned out to be higher than expected, which supported the strengthening of the pound. On a monthly basis, the index rose by 1.7% after falling by -0.6% in December, although only 0.3% growth was forecast. On an annualized basis, sales slowed from 2.8% to 1.0%, but exceeded the projected 0.6%. Excluding fuel, growth was 2.1% month-on-month and 1.2% year-on-year, which was also higher than expected at 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively. However, business activity showed mixed results: the S&P Global index in the industrial sector in February fell from 48.3 to 46.4 points against forecasts of 48.4 points, while in the service sector the indicator strengthened from 50.9 to 51.1 points, exceeding preliminary estimates of 50.8 points.The issue of the rate of interest rate reduction by the Bank of England remains in the spotlight, as stated by the representative of the Monetary Policy Committee, Swati Dhingra. During her speech at Birkbeck, she noted that a gradual reduction in the cost of borrowing does not necessarily mean a standard reduction of 25 basis points. At the same time, according to a survey of leading economists conducted by Reuters, most experts predict that the British regulator will continue to ease monetary policy, reducing the rate by 75 basis points during the year.Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2690, 1.2747, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.NZD/USD: the pair is preparing for continued growth after a pullbackDuring the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair fell back to around 0.5710 after steadily rising 3.5% in January and February. Despite the correction, the overall macroeconomic background remains favorable for the continuation of the upward movement. According to published statistics, the core retail sales index in New Zealand for the fourth quarter increased by 1.4% on a quarterly basis, which significantly exceeded the forecast of 0.2%. The previous data was revised upward from -0.8% to -0.6%, and total sales for the same period increased from 0.0% to 0.9%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.5%.Additional support for the national currency is provided by the prospect of further easing of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The regulator has already lowered the rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.75%, and, according to the head of the department, Adrian Orr, it is likely to reach 3.00% by the end of the year. This means that at least two more stages of decline are possible in the coming months. However, the current weakening of the New Zealand dollar is due to the strengthening of the US currency, which was the market's reaction to statements by US President Donald Trump about the introduction of new duties on copper imports. These measures contribute to the growth of demand for the dollar, putting additional pressure on the NZD/USD.Resistance levels: 0.5795, 0.5928.Support levels: 0.5690, 0.5600.WTI oil market analysisWTI crude oil prices show a multidirectional movement during the morning trading session, consolidating around 69.00 and remaining at the lowest values since December 23, updated the day before. Expectations of a possible diplomatic resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are putting pressure on the market, which reduces demand for defensive assets, including commodities. The administration of US President Donald Trump is actively promoting initiatives to end hostilities, while simultaneously taking steps to restore diplomatic ties with Russia. The first meetings of the delegations have already taken place in Saudi Arabia, and experts believe that if agreements are reached, a partial revision of the sanctions policy is possible, including easing restrictions on Russian energy exports via sea routes and pipeline systems.Additional pressure on oil is exerted by the resumption of exports of raw materials from Iraqi Kurdistan. On Monday, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani announced that supplies would resume after the final approval of technical details with Ankara. According to experts, transportation volumes will amount to about 185.0 thousand barrels per day, which may increase pressure on the market and limit the growth potential of oil prices.Resistance levels: 69.00, 70.00, 71.00, 71.62.Support levels: 68.30, 67.00, 66.00, ...

USD/CHF: quarterly employment in Switzerland in the spotlightThe USD/CHF pair is in the correction phase, trading around 0.8969, with the potential for further decline amid strong macroeconomic data from Switzerland.A stable labor market remains one of the key factors supporting the franc. In the fourth quarter, employment in the non-agricultural sector increased by 0.9%, equivalent to 48.3 thousand new jobs. At the same time, the number of open vacancies decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, which indicates a high level of job occupancy. The share of companies planning to expand their staff was 11.7%, while only 4.7% of employers intend to reduce staff. This stability in the labor market provides the Swiss National Bank with additional arguments in favor of further lowering the interest rate, which is likely to reach 0.00% by the end of the year.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9120.Support levels: 0.8940, 0.8810.AUD/USD: the exchange rate moved to correction before the inflation reportThe Australian dollar is showing moderate growth in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, correcting the previous two-day decline. After a pullback from local highs on December 12, the exchange rate is testing the 0.6350 level, trying to gain a foothold higher, while traders expect new factors that can affect the dynamics. Meanwhile, the sale of shares of leading Australian banks has stopped after eight sessions of decline caused by the first decrease in interest rates since November 2020 and an increase in overdue debt. In particular, the capitalization of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia has decreased by about 25 billion Australian dollars during this time. The key event for the market will be the publication of January inflation data in Australia, which is scheduled for tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the annual consumer price index may rise from 2.5% to 2.6%, which may support the national currency. Investors' attention will also be focused on statistics on completed construction: the indicator for the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to slow down from 1.6% to 1.0%.The final report on US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be released on the US market on Thursday at 15:30 (GMT+2), and experts do not predict a revision of the value from 2.3%. On the same day, data on applications for unemployment benefits and January orders for durable goods are expected to be published, which may grow by 2.5% after a December decline of -2.2%. On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will assess the key inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve — the price index of personal consumption expenditures. Analysts expect a slowdown in the base indicator from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year, while monthly growth may accelerate from 0.2% to 0.3%. The overall index is also expected to reach 2.5%, adding 0.3% over the month.Resistance levels: 0.6373, 0.6408, 0.6450, 0.6478.Support levels: 0.6330, 0.6300, 0.6274, 0.6250.Gold market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, gold is showing a decline, rolling back from historical highs recorded the day before and testing support at 2935.75. Pressure on gold is exerted by a decrease in geopolitical tensions associated with the likely progress of peace talks on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The weakening demand for protective assets contributes to the reorientation of investors to riskier instruments, which further limits the metal's growth potential.Market participants' attention is also focused on the latest economic data from the United States. According to the S&P Global report, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector rose from 51.2 to 51.6 points in February, exceeding the projected 51.5 points, while the services sector saw a sharp decline from 52.9 to 49.7 points, which turned out to be worse than the expected 53.0 points. Additional pressure on the dollar was exerted by a decrease in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in January from 67.8 to 64.7 points, despite neutral forecasts. Also, data on the Chicago Federal Reserve's national activity index was released yesterday, which fell from 0.18 to -0.03 points in January, reflecting a weakening in economic activity. The December housing price index from S&P/Case-Shiller will be published today at 16:00 (GMT+2), and at 17:00 (GMT+2) and 17:30 (GMT+2), markets expect the publication of business activity indices in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. which can set the further direction of the dollar's movement and, accordingly, affect the dynamics of gold.Resistance levels: 2956.19, 2980.00, 3000.00, 3025.00.Support levels: 2920.00, 2900.00, 2875.00, 2858.06.Crude Oil market analysisThe price of Brent crude oil remains under pressure, correcting in a downward movement and trading just below the 75.00 mark. The market is influenced by two factors at once: the trade policy of US President Donald Trump, which implies possible changes in import duties, as well as the prospects for an increase in oil supplies from Iraq. These circumstances increase uncertainty and create negative expectations among investors.Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdel Ghani announced that the transportation of raw materials from Kurdistan to Turkey will resume next week. The cost of the supplied oil will be $ 16.0 per barrel, and the state-owned SOMO company will handle its sale. According to preliminary estimates, the volume of supplies in the first months will range from 300.0 to 500.0 thousand barrels per day, which may increase pressure on the market.Additional attention of traders is focused on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on fuel reserves, which will be released today at 23:30 (GMT+2). Experts predict that after the previous increase of 3.339 million barrels, the figure will change slightly. Tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT+2), data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be published, and if they confirm the positive dynamics of last week, when stocks increased by 4,633 million barrels, this may strengthen the current trend in the market.Resistance levels: 75.30, 78.00.Support levels: 73.70, ...

AUD/USD: forecasts point to RBA policy easingThe Australian dollar continues to strengthen in the AUD/USD pair, updating the local highs of mid-December 2024 and developing a short-term upward momentum. During the Asian session, the instrument is testing the 0.6370 level, receiving support from both technical factors and expectations of a potential peaceful settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which could have a positive impact on global markets and energy prices.Reports from Australia's largest financial institutions provide an additional positive background. For example, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported a 2.0% increase in half-year profit to $5.13 billion, exceeding analysts' forecasts. In addition, dividend payments per share increased by 5.0%, and the bank's quotes reached a historic peak, which supported the ASX 200 index.Investors' attention remains focused on labor market data, which will be published on Thursday: experts expect employment growth to slow from 56.3 thousand to 20.0 thousand, and unemployment may rise to 4.1%. Also on Wednesday, statistics on wage dynamics for the fourth quarter will be released, where an annual decline from 3.5% to 3.2% is forecast.Resistance levels: 0.6373, 0.6420, 0.6455, 0.6478.Support levels: 0.6330, 0.6300, 0.6274, 0.6250.NZD/USD: medium-term dynamics shifted in favor of the bullsThe NZD/USD pair is trading above 0.5738, breaking the resistance level of 0.5691, which may signal a change in the long-term trend.Positive macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand contributed to the growth of quotations. Business inflation expectations in the first quarter were 2.06%, exceeding the forecast of 1.80%, and the food price index rose to 2.3% year-on-year, which increases the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep the rate at 4.25% on February 19. At the same time, investors expect a decrease to 3.75%, which may increase pressure on the national currency exchange rate. At the same time, business activity in January showed steady growth: the index in the manufacturing sector rose to 51.4 points from 45.9, and in the service sector – to 50.4 points.Last week, the US dollar weakened by 1.57% in USDX as investors shifted their focus to risky assets amid geopolitical stabilization. Peace talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine are expected to take place in Saudi Arabia in the spring. The decrease in tensions in the Gaza Strip is also contributing to a decrease in interest in the dollar as a safe haven asset. If the global situation continues to normalize, it will strengthen the growth of the NZD/USD.Resistance levels: 0.5795, 0.5928.Support levels: 0.5690, 0.5600.USD/CAD: bearish momentum is gaining strengthThe USD/CAD pair remains under pressure during the morning session, developing the downward trend established last week. Quotes are testing the 1.4170 level for a downward breakdown, updating the minimum values since mid-December.The market continues to react to the 25.0% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on steel and aluminum imports, of which Canada is the main supplier. Additional pressure on the economy is exerted by the recently signed memorandum on mutual trade restrictions, which increases investor concerns. Conservative Party leader Pierre Pouillevre expressed concern about the current state of the country's economy at a rally on February 15, stressing that after the pandemic stagnation, Canada is facing new challenges that threaten business and income levels.Traders' attention is focused on the upcoming Canadian inflation report, which will be published on Tuesday at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts predict that the consumer price index on a monthly basis will remain unchanged after a decrease of 0.4% earlier, and the base indicator will be fixed at the levels of -0.3% for the month and 1.8% in annual terms.Resistance levels: 1.4200, 1.4250, 1.4300, 1.4350.Support levels: 1.4145, 1.4100, 1.4050, 1.4000.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices remain under pressure, showing a moderate decline in morning trading. Quotes are testing the level of 70.70 for a downward breakdown, holding near the lows of December 30, updated earlier. Traders are being cautious, waiting for new factors to appear that could affect the direction of market movement.The main pressure on oil prices is exerted by uncertainty in the trade policy of US President Donald Trump. Earlier, the White House imposed 25.0% tariffs on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, and also imposed similar duties on imports of steel and aluminum from all countries. Chinese products are taxed at 10.0%. Additionally, the possibility of a significant reduction in Iranian oil exports and the introduction of new restrictions on supplies from Russia is being considered, which may be related to the process of peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.The corrective dynamics continues in the market. According to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions on WTI Crude Oil decreased from 230.3 thousand to 220.0 thousand last week. There is a decrease in the activity of sellers: the balance of producers amounted to 446,121 thousand for the bulls against 382,201 thousand for the bears. During the week, buyers reduced their positions by 3,091 thousand contracts, and sellers – by 12,058 thousand, which indicates a weakening of selling pressure, but does not exclude further volatility.Resistance levels: 71.00, 71.62, 72.15, 73.00.Support levels: 70.00, 69.00, 68.30, ...

OPEC+ is markedly reducing oil production - in fact, the exporting countries will pump about 1 million barrels less per day. We have written earlier on why this is so.As a result, supply at the market has become lower, so prices have gone up and are approaching $100 per barrel again.What will the U.S. do after the OPEC+ statement?The coming energy crisis and the high inflation it causes are scaring the whole world, but it's the States that are worried the most right now:expensive oil means expensive fuel;it's causing prices of almost all commodities to rise;inflation is going up - the Fed keeps tightening policy;high key interest rates are pushing the U.S. closer to recession;in addition, high fuel prices can cause social discontent.To prevent this, the U.S. is trying to influence the largest oil producers and keep prices down. Otherwise, the Democrats will most likely not win the congressional elections. They are due in a month.The U.S. started to prepare in advance: President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia this summer and persuaded the U.S. to bring down oil prices. But it did not work out very well: OPEC acts in its own way and does not want to listen to Americans. As a result, the failed negotiations with the Saudis have further diminished the credibility of Biden and the Democrats' ability to influence oil, inflation and economic stability in the United States.However, the Biden administration is not giving up; they have a few more options - rather radical ones - on how to lower oil prices.Additional Oil ReleaseThe safest, though least effective, option is to further draw oil from strategic U.S. storage facilities. In response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 10 million barrels of oil, even as storage reserves are depleted.That would be all well and good, but the announcement had little or no effect on oil prices, especially compared to the previous similar decision to release 180 million barrels to the market. No wonder: the volumes are not comparable.In addition, since U.S. storage reserves are running out, there is a risk that they will not be enough for a rainy day: in case of sharp reductions in domestic production (for example, during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico) or imports (if OPEC+ countries reduce exports).Reducing military aid to the ArabsDemocrats have drafted a "Tense Partnership" bill in response to OPEC+ and specifically the alliance's leaders, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They are accused of "a hostile act against the United States" and "siding with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine."As revenge, the U.S. could withdraw its troops from these countries and stop supplying weapons and other military aid to fight neighboring states and terrorists. This includes protecting oil infrastructure from attack.This option also has disadvantages: without U.S. military support in these countries, there could be problems that would inevitably affect the global oil supply. After all, if military actions or terrorist attacks affect the oil fields or storage facilities of Saudi Aramco, oil will cost even more, and such attacks occur quite often.So even if the Saudis and the UAE will not reduce exports in response to the withdrawal of troops and reduction of arms supply, there is a good chance that sooner or later the fighting will make prices go up.In addition, Saudi Arabia has already planned to prepare for a possible conflict with the United States. For example, in the spring the Saudis said they were going to explore ways to move away from the petrodollar - that is, not to use bucks in the black gold trade. In this case, the demand for the dollar could fall dramatically, especially if other oil-exporting countries do the same.NOPEC: Conflict with OPEC+Amid disagreements with OPEC, the U.S. may return to the "oil production and export cartel law," NOPEC, to have more leverage on oil exporters.In this case, U.S. courts will be able to consider antitrust suits against OPEC+ and in general against countries involved in cartel collusion in the oil market. Under the decision of their own courts, the U.S. will be able to impose sanctions, confiscate property of these countries and put pressure on them in other ways. At the same time, the U.S. itself will indicate what is legal and what is not, thus assessing any actions of the countries that regulate oil production and prices.This option also has a disadvantage: sanctions on exporters would also hit the U.S. itself. If oil prices become lower, the U.S. oil industry will also be hard hit: domestic production will decrease and it will have to import more. And since the market is competitive, and the U.S. in this case will be "enemies of OPEC +", they will have to buy oil more expensive.So, even if the U.S. takes a drastic step - provoking a conflict with Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or starting a sanctions war with OPEC+ - all this will have a negative impact on themselves.Can't sanctions be lifted on Venezuela?As we can see, the U.S. has almost no normal options left to influence the oil market. Nevertheless, the U.S. says it is not going to remove sanctions from Venezuela yet, despite the fact that this would help get more oil on the market and lower oil prices. We may see some new rhetoric in this regard, but no change for now.The Iran deal has also been stalled so far: there is no news or movement on it. Although it is possible that disagreements with the Saudis may attract the U.S. to support Iran, because these are the two sides of the Arab conflict.On the one hand, Iranian oil would help to increase supply, but there is a nuance here as well: the reserves in this country are not grandiose, moreover, most of the oil is already exported in circumvention of sanctions.So what to do with Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2022?If we discard all of the above options, then all we have to do is sit back and watch oil go up in price. The outlook is also bad: even if the world starts a recession and the demand for oil decreases, OPEC+ is already reducing production and adjusting to negative expectations, and also the supply from Russia may decrease if the embargo comes into force.And if that's the case, U.S. inflation will be high. And given the strong labor market, the Fed may raise the rate even more than 1.25% by the end of the year, and it is not certain that it will slow down next year as well. If rates remain high for a long time, the risk of recession in the U.S. is very high, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will have no fuel for growth. As a result, the economy will have a hard time: liquidity is scarce.If the U.S. starts to act sharply, the dollar is at risk: the "oil" countries can give it up to reduce dependence on the United States. But if the U.S. does nothing, tightening Fed policy will keep the dollar very strong - though at the cost of high inflation and recession. If you are interested in WTI analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest WTI forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss ...

In 2019, the "sub-sanctioned" Iran began to increase oil supplies in circumvention of sanctions. Mostly tankers went to China and the Mediterranean: Syria and Turkey. And by the beginning of 2022, the fleet for transporting sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil had tripled. It accounted for approximately 400 million barrels per year. And such a "ghost armada" successfully undermines the business of transport companies.Why did Iranian tankers get such a name?Last year, The Mail on Sunday reported: 123 Iranian vessels circumvent sanctions on oil trade. They change their location to GPS and create the appearance that they are anchored at sea, but at this time they are loading/unloading at the port. They also actively forge documents, use flags of different countries, disable identification systems and use front companies. Oil is often loaded onto several vessels and mixed before reaching its destination. This is also the case with "toxic" Russian oil.At the same time, Iran has a whole "underground" financial system for trade bypassing sanctions, writes the WSJ. It includes accounts in foreign banks, intermediary companies outside the country and firms that coordinate prohibited trade. The annual turnover is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.And Iranian banks attract affiliated firms to manage trade under sanctions. They register "daughters" outside the country, become trusted for Iranian traders, and then trade with foreign buyers of Iranian oil in foreign currency through accounts in foreign banks.Will the "Iranian Armada" help Russia?She is already helping her to circumvent sanctions, writes the Daily Mail. The international non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) accuses the Iranian navy of cooperating with Russian oil companies. Allegedly, Russian oilmen are using "Tehran's black market vessels" to circumvent the export ban. And the US, the EU and the UK are even calling for the formation of a team of "ghostbusters".At least 5 Iranian "ghost armadas" are transporting oil from Russia to China and India, according to UANI. And recently, the WSJ reported that Zamanoil from the UAE was linking Iranian and Russian oil workers. The US Treasury accused her of working with the Russian government and Rosneft on the supply of Iranian oil to Europe.However, at the end of March, Iran denied a "secret offer from Russia" to help it circumvent sanctions in exchange for support in concluding a nuclear deal. And in May, he noted that he could not be a competitor of Russia in the global oil and gas market. The country has its own regular customers, and Iran sells the maximum amount of oil.So officially, Iran does not seem to be planning to use its "army of ghosts" to help for the benefit of Russia, despite the fact that these countries have "converged" before. But then there was no question of an embargo on Russian oil and there was no ban on ship insurance. In the new reality, the actions of the "ghost armada" are quite difficult to ...

In the last month of summer, the oil exchange rate is likely to show a correctionIn August, the oil price depends on several important factors - first of all, the recovery of the market in the United States and the new flare-up of the conflict in the Middle East. The Israeli authorities have accused Iran of attacking an oil tanker, and the United States and Great Britain have already promised support to Israel. Against this background, the oil exchange rate moved to growth after a short correction, but it is not known how long this recovery growth will be. We offer a traditional analysis of oil prices.Reducing unemployment in the United StatesIn many ways, the positive movement on the US stock markets has a positive effect on the oil exchange rate: the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices traditionally update historical highs. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the number of applications for unemployment benefits has fallen sharply.During the last week of July, only 385 thousand such appeals were registered, and the total number of recipients of benefits amounted to 3 million people. However, the effect of positive news from the US markets has already been played out, and the dynamics of the oil exchange rate will need new incentives to continue growth.At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from the United States show an increase in the commodity deficit, which increased from $71 billion in May to $75.7 billion in June. This was largely due to a 2.1% increase in imports compared to the previous month, although exports increased by only 0.6%. This is largely due to a reduction in supplies, which in turn restricts production within the United States.There are already reports about how the spread of a new strain of coronavirus can affect the American economy. In particular, as the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, said, the new strain may slow down the recovery of the labor market. This completely contradicts the recent statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who assured analysts that the delta strain is not a risk to the American economy.Positive statistics on the labor market may force the Fed to change its approach to monetary policy and increase rates, as well as curtail the quantitative easing program. First of all, this will lead to a strengthening of the dollar, which in turn will affect the commodities denominated in the US currency. In this case, the oil exchange rate will be influenced by another important negative factor. Moreover, investors will begin to withdraw resources from risky assets, and then the Russian and Chinese stock markets will suffer.Already half of the US states have stopped paying increased unemployment benefits, which on the one hand indicates that there is no need for additional incentives, and on the other hand may mean an increase in demand for fuel. However, in any case, the statistics on the labor market in the United States may not be as positive as it may seem at first glance - the number of jobs outside agriculture, on the contrary, turned out to be less than a year earlier. First of all, this was caused by a large number of dismissals in the field of higher education.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its functionsThe influence of China and RussiaAn increase in oil purchases from China can potentially act as a new incentive for the hydrocarbon market. So, China may soon announce an increase in quotas for the purchase of hydrocarbons. Moreover, it is expected that more oil will be purchased not only by small refineries from China, but also by large Chinese companies.The main seller of oil on the Chinese market is the Arab countries from the Persian Gulf, so first, most likely, prices for Dubai grade oil will rise sharply, and other grades, including the benchmark Brent, will follow it. However, these expectations are contradicted by the increase in the incidence of coronavirus in China - due to lockdowns and restrictive measures, traffic on some of the most important logistics routes is reduced.Moreover, the Chinese authorities have decided to restrict air and rail travel around the country. In the Asian region, the number of infected people has been growing recently. In particular, in Thailand, even new restrictive measures did not help to stop the increase in new cases. Similarly, in Sydney, Australia, the increase in new cases has reached a historic high, and the authorities expect the situation to worsen further.In turn, Russian oil companies are trying to use the OPEC+ deal to get more favorable working conditions inside the country. In particular, they suggested that the government reduce the tax burden on the industry, which in turn will help start the development of hard-to-reach oil. To do this, they proposed to create two new groups of deposits, for which they proposed to reset the tax on mineral extraction.The first group includes areas with the volume of initial reserves of less than 65 million tons and the degree of depletion of less than 1%. The second group includes the deposits of ultra-viscous oil in the Komi Republic. Moreover, the oil companies decided to stimulate the exploration of hard-to-recover reserves. To do this, it is proposed to use a traditional set of tools - tax deductions and reduction of payments for the mineral extraction tax. However, so far the Ministry of Finance is against the initiative, which is not eager to help oil companies and does not plan to change the taxation of the industry until 2023-2024, until the end of the OPEC+ agreement.At the same time, the further deterioration of the pandemic situation in the world may become a deterrent to the growth of oil prices. Recently, in order to combat the spread of a new delta strain of coronavirus, an increasing number of countries have been strengthening restrictive measures on the mobility of the population. Investors are particularly concerned about the situation in China, where domestic air and rail traffic was limited in order to localize outbreaks of the disease, which directly affects the oil exchange rate.Oil price analysisOil futures moved into the negative zone, without reaching the goals of a short-term rebound. These levels are located near the $73.50 and $71.50 marks, which corresponds to the average Bollinger bands on the daily chart. In general, the oil exchange rate is affected by downward pressure, and analysts are increasingly inclined to believe that a correction may occur in the hydrocarbon market in the near future. The support lines are located near the previous lows - around $70.20 and $67.50, according to the technical analysis of oil prices.Read more: What are futures: types, features, advantages and risksIn the first week of August, the dynamics of the oil exchange rate showed a failure-from about $75 to $70 literally from August 2 to 5. The reason for the increase is quite banal - the growth of fuel reserves in the American market, which indicates a decrease in economic activity. According to official data, inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels, while a decrease of 3.9 million barrels was expected. Moreover, analysts are influenced by data on the spread of a new strain of coronavirus in China, the United States and Japan, as well as the associated expectations of new restrictions.The most important factor that positively affects the dynamics of the oil exchange rate remains the growth of tensions in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel on the one hand and Iran and Lebanon on the other threatens the rapid exit of hydrocarbons from the Islamic Republic to foreign markets, as well as generally increases the uncertainty of oil transportation from the Middle East. As a result, literally in one day on August 5, the oil exchange rate recovered to $71 per barrel, and the next day it was already testing the level of $72 per barrel.A new conflict in the Middle East may become a significant factor that is likely to affect the oil price in August. According to Israeli Defense Minister Beni Gantz, his country is ready to start a war against Iran because of a drone strike on an oil tanker. We are talking about the attack on the Mercer Street oil tanker.Officially, the ship belongs to Japan, sails under the flag of Liberia, but it is operated by the Israeli company Zodiac Maritime. According to Gantz, the Islamic Republic has no more than two and a half months to come close to producing nuclear weapons. In this context, the attack on an Israeli tanker becomes part of a large-scale confrontation in the region. If the tension increases, the oil exchange rate may receive additional support.In turn, Israel has already received assistance from its traditional allies - the United States and Great Britain. As British Prime Minister Boris Johnson hastened to say, " Iran must answer for the consequences." In turn, the representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said that the Islamic Republic is ready to protect its security and national interests. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also joined the diplomatic skirmish, saying that Tehran was undoubtedly behind the attack, and the allies would prepare a "collective response" to this attack.Thus, two multidirectional factors: the strengthening of anti-bullying measures and the growing conflict in the Middle East are pushing the trajectory of the oil exchange rate in different directions. If the first factor leads to a reduction in demand, the second one seriously reduces the supply of oil - it is the Middle East conflicts that traditionally push the cost of hydrocarbons up. According to most analysts, the combination of two multidirectional factors can cause the oil exchange rate to fluctuate in a wide range from $68 to $75 per Brent, depending on the news background.Read more: Are the minutes of the Federal Reserve meetings useful for ...

At the morning trading on Tuesday, oil prices are declining. By 7.42 GMT, Brent oil fell to 72 dollars 85 cents per barrel, or by 0.05% compared to the closing price of trading the day before. The price of WTI oil fell to 71 dollars 22 cents per barrel, or 0.06%. Pressure on oil prices is exerted by information about the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in Asian countries. In this region, there is an increase in the number of infections with a new strain of coronavirus infection "delta". The authorities of a number of Asian countries were forced to tighten restrictive measures, including on movement. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank Of Australia note that the spread of the delta strain around the world will become a serious threat to the recovery of oil demand. Mobility restrictions are already being observed in some parts of the Asian region. This is the reason for the fall in oil demand. More than 60% of the world's oil consumption is accounted for by ...

Oil quotations are rising amid expectations of a further recovery in demand. International Energy Agency forecasts oil demand to be higher than before the pandemic by the end of 2022.The price of Brent crude futures on the ICE London exchange has surpassed $73 in August, trading data shows. It peaked at $73.07 during the trading session - the last time Brent traded above $73 a barrel was on 20 May 2019.WTI Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 1.22% to $71.15 in July.The International Energy Agency (IEA) today published The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR), which said that oil demand will return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022. At the same time, the organization kept the demand forecast for 2021 at 5.4 million barrels per day.Read more: The International Energy Agency (IEA) - brief history and activityOPEC+ member countries will have reserves of around 6.9m bpd between May and July. And if sanctions on Iran are lifted, market supply would increase by 1.4m bpd in the short term.The price of Brent crude oil has been in an uptrend since May 21. During this period it rose from $64.5 to $73, and there were only two trading sessions which closed lower.The IEA stressed that OPEC+ countries will have to increase production to meet rising market demand. Bloomberg points out that road traffic in the US and most of Europe has recovered to pre-pandemic levels.At the same time, the full recovery of flights, and with them, demand for jet fuel remains in doubt, says Investec Bank's head of commodity markets, Collum McPherson. The return of Iranian oil to the market, he believes, will be a challenge for OPEC+ if demand does not pick ...

In international markets, the price of Brent crude oil in April of this year averaged $65, which did not change compared to the average value for March. According to the US Energy Short-term forecast (EIA), published on May 11, 2021, they are projected to average $65 per barrel in the second quarter of 2021, and then an average of 61 per barrel in the second half of 2021, therefore, a correction is expected to develop.Brent crude oil prices were high in 2020, averaging $64 a barrel in January. But they fell sharply in the second quarter, closing at about $9 a barrel in April 2020, when the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell to a negative price around -37 dollars a barrel.By June 2020, the price of Brent crude oil exceeded $40 per barrel, and by the end of 2020, it rose to $50 per barrel. In March and April 2021, prices rose to $65 per barrel due to rising oil demand due to an increase in the number of vaccinations and an increase in overall economic activity worldwide.The price increase also reflects supply constraints from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC partner countries. OPEC restricts oil production due to lower demand during the pandemic. At its meeting in April 2021, OPEC announced that it would start increasing oil production, with each adjustment being no more than 0.5 million barrels per day.According to the EIA forecasts, the average price of WTI oil in 2021 will be $59 per barrel, and in 2022 oil will be at the level of $57 per barrel.Four reasons for volatile oil pricesPreviously, oil prices had predictable seasonal fluctuations. They rose sharply in price in the spring, as oil traders expect high demand for cars for the summer holidays. When demand peaks, prices fall in the fall and winter, especially if the winter is warm.Oil prices have become unstable due to factors affecting oil prices. The coronavirus pandemic has led to a sharp drop in oil demand. This offset three other factors affecting oil prices: rising U.S. oil production, declining OPEC influence, and a stronger dollar.Slowing global demandThe EIA estimates that global demand for oil and liquid fuels in 2020 was 92.2 million barrels per day. This is 9 million barrels per day lower than in 2019. Demand is expected to grow by 5.4 million barrels per day in 2021 and another 3.7 million barrels per day in 2022.US oil production growthProducers of shale gas and alternative fuels such as ethanol in the US have increased their supply. They slowly increased the supply, maintaining prices high enough to cover the cost of developing new fields. Many shale gas producers have become more efficient at extracting oil. They found ways to keep the fields open, saving on the cost of closing them. This growth began in 2015 and has since affected supply.In August 2018, the United States became the world's largest oil producer. In September 2019, U.S. crude oil production rose to a record 12.1 million barrels per day. For the first time since 1973, the US exported more oil. In February 2021, U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.9 million barrels per day, down 1.2 million barrels per day from January. The EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production rose to 10.9 million bpd in March and nearly 11.0 million bpd in April.U.S. crude oil production is estimated to average 11.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2021 and increase to 11.8 million barrels per day in 2022.Reducing the influence of OPECAmerican shale oil producers have become more powerful, but they don't act like an OPEC-type cartel. To maintain market share, OPEC did not cut production enough to set a minimum price level.OPEC's leader, Saudi Arabia, wants higher oil prices because it is a source of government revenue. But it must balance this with the loss of market share to American and Russian companies.Saudi Arabia does not want to lose market share to its main rival, Shiite – led Iran. The 2015 nuclear peace Treaty lifted 2010 economic sanctions and allowed Saudi Arabia's biggest rival to export oil again in 2016. But that source dried up when President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions in 2018.The rise in the value of the dollarCurrency traders have been raising the value of the dollar since 2014. Many traders use the dollar as a safe investment in times of economic uncertainty. For example, the value of the dollar rose by 30% between 2013 and 2016 in response to the Greek debt crisis and Brexit. From March 3 to March 23, 2020, it grew by 8.4% due to the coronavirus pandemic.All oil transactions are paid in US dollars. Most oil-exporting countries link their currencies to the dollar. As a result, a 25% rise in the dollar offsets a 25% drop in oil prices. Global economic uncertainty keeps the US dollar strong.Brent oil price forecast for 2021 and 2022On the weekly oil chart, a large bullish "Wolf Wave" model was formed with the aim of working out the model at the level of $120 per barrel. As we can see, the potential for continued growth is still there. Moving averages indicate the presence of a short-term bullish trend in oil. Prices broke through the area between the signal lines up, which indicates pressure from buyers of "Black Gold" and the potential continuation of the growth of the asset value from the current levels. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to develop a correction and test the support level near the area of $68.50 per barrel. Further, the continuation of the growth of the oil exchange rate in the region above the level of $ 85 per barrel in 2021 and $ 120 in 2022.Read more: How to determine the beginning of the movement of the "bull" market?An additional signal in favor of the rise in quotations and prices for Brent oil will be a test of the support line on the relative strength indicator (RSI). The second signal will be a rebound from the lower border of the inverted "Head and Shoulders" reversal pattern. Confirmation of the rise in quotations will be the breakdown of the resistance level and the closing of Brent prices above the level of 70.55, as we can see, buyers can not break through this area in any way.Thus, the Brent forecast for oil prices for 2021 and 2022 suggests an attempt to develop a correction and test the support level near the area of 68.50. Further, the continuation of growth with a goal above the level of $85 per barrel in 2021 and $ 120 in 2022. A test of the trend line on the relative strength indicator, as well as the formation of a large inverted "Head and Shoulders" model, will be in favor of the rise.Oil price forecast for 2025 and 2050The EIA predicted that by 2025, the nominal price of Brent crude oil will rise to $66 per barrel.By 2030, it is expected that global demand will lead to an increase in the price of Brent crude oil to $89 per barrel. By 2040, prices are projected at $132 per barrel. By then, the sources of cheap oil will be exhausted, which will make oil production more expensive. By 2050, oil prices will be $185 per barrel, according to the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook.The EIA expects oil demand to stabilize as utilities rely more on natural gas and renewable energy sources. It is also assumed that economic growth averages about 2% per year, while energy consumption is declining by 0.4% per year. The EIA also has forecasts for other possible scenarios.Can oil cost $200 a barrel?Although it seems ridiculous now, there are situations in which the price of oil can reach $200 per barrel. The EIA forecasts Brent crude prices at $185 a barrel in 2050 if the cost of oil production falls and it displaces competing energy sources, but economic conditions could lead to even more price increases.In July 2008, oil prices reached a record high of about $147 per barrel. In December, they fell to about $40 per barrel, and then rose to $123 per barrel in April 2011. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) previously predicted that the price of Brent crude could rise to $270 a barrel on rapidly growing demand from China and other emerging markets.The price of oil at the level of $200 per barrel can change consumer consumption. The use of oil as an energy source has led to climate change. There is an opinion that high oil prices lead to a "drop in demand". If high prices persist long enough, people change their buying habits. The drop in demand occurred after the 1979 oil shock. Oil prices have been falling steadily for years.The $200-a-barrel oil price forecast seems disastrous for the American way of life, but people in Europe have been paying high prices for years because of high taxes. As long as people have time to adjust, they will find ways to live with higher oil ...

What is OPEC and what are its functions?We all know about such raw materials as oil and the products that are produced from it. At the same time, everyone knows perfectly well that the extraction of black gold is carried out from the bowels of the earth. There are quite a small number of oil-producing countries on the whole Earth, the association of most of which is called OPEC. In this article, we will learn the history of the creation of the union, its impact on the shares of OPEC oil companies, the benefits of the cartel itself, the impact of OPEC on the stock market, what is the OPEC oil reserve, as well as where to find a live chart of OPEC oil prices and OPEC stock prices.OPECOPEC is an association of countries that export oil around the world. Structurally, OPEC is a cartel, that is, a community of participants who coordinate actions and strategies.The organization itself was founded as a result of the Baghdad Conference held from September 10 to 14, 1960.The founding countries were:Saudi Arabia;Iran;Iraq;Kuwait;Venezuela.At the moment, about 80% of the planet's oil reserves are located on the territory of the OPEC countries in total. In the field of production, this value reaches 40%, while global oil exports consist of OPEC supplies for half.Most of the OPEC members are relatively poor states, but as a single organization, they all have a serious impact on the price of oil and the world economy and politics. Saudi Arabia occupies a special position in OPEC.HistoryUntil the mid-1950s, oil was relatively inexpensive. Although it was a product of strategic importance, however, it did not have such importance as it is now. The main competitor of oil was coal, and the consumption of black gold was incomparably lower.Until the early 60s, the oil trade around the world was significantly controlled by 7 Oil companies. For the convenience of coordination, these companies created an international oil cartel, whose goal was to keep in the range of $1.5-3. At the same time, the most numerous oil deposits and the best conditions for its production were in the third world countries. At that time, these states had long wanted to overthrow the dictate of international corporations and fully earn on exports.On the verge of independenceThe OPEC member countries were dependent states about 50 years ago, and therefore they tried to get rid of this exploitation in various ways. This factor has contributed to the rapprochement of these States and their interests. However, none of these countries could defeat the Western states on their own. For example: in 1951, Iran tried to nationalize the Anglo-Iranian oil produced at that time, but was immediately subjected to crazy economic pressure from the United Kingdom, the United States and the International Oil Cartel.The purpose of creating OPECAt the time when the first composition of OPEC was formed, a surplus of sold oil was formed on the world market. This surplus was formed largely due to the active development of large oil fields in the Middle East. In addition, the USSR joined the world trade in black gold, which doubled the volume of production for the period from 1955 to 1960. This led to increased competition in the raw materials market, which, as a result, ensured a constant decline in prices.Thus, the creation of OPEC was primarily necessary for effective coordination and prevention of a decrease in prices for oil products. Since the world market was overflowing with oil in the 60s, OPEC's initial task was to apply oil production restrictions to stabilize prices.The first stepsBack in 1949, at the initiative of Venezuela, there was a rapprochement of the oil-producing countries. This state made contact with the powers of the Middle East and offered to come up with a way of mutually beneficial cooperation. However, this idea was not crowned with success, since the Arab partners did not yet have sufficient independence. Moreover, they retained the power of monarchs, who were not particularly willing to engage in dialogue.In 1959, oil corporations lowered the price of raw materials, which caused Venezuela to lose a huge amount of money at that time - $140 million. This case led to the unification of the oil exporting countries, during which the first Arab oil Congress was held in Cairo. The participants of the congress demanded that the oil companies must agree on actions with the leadership of the oil-producing powers before making any decision on the price of raw materials. In addition, it was proposed to create a special commission on oil issues.BackgroundBefore getting acquainted with the composition of OPEC, we note that the first signs of the emergence of the cartel appeared back in the 1930s at the time when the development of oil fields began in the Middle East. One of the first oil-bearing sources was Baghdad. In 1934, production began in Bahrain, in 1936 - in Kuwait, in 1938 - in Saudi Arabia, and after 1945 - in other countries.Read more: Bulls and bears, as well as other animals on the stock exchangeSince these powers did not have their own finances and human resources for oil production, emigrants were attracted to the development of mineral resources. The leader in this issue was five companies from the United States: Exxon Mobil, Texaco, Mobil Oil, Standard Oil Company of California, Gulf Oil. Later, the British "British Petroleum" joined the Americans.Very soon, the arrogance of these companies increased so much that the requirements of the laws of certain countries were simply ignored. In addition, the British and Americans took control of the natural resources and activities of countries with oil-rich lands. In 1960, thanks to the creation of OPEC, the countries of the Middle East were finally able to resist foreign oil giants.It is interesting that in most oil-producing countries, this type of activity is the main source of attracting foreign currency. Due to the extremely backward economic structure, the foreign trade transactions of these states are based only on oil. For example: in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Libya, the share occupied by petroleum products in exports is 100%. In Iraq, this value is 99%, in Qatar-98%, in Kuwait, Iran, Nigeria-93%, in Algeria - 85%, in Gabon - 77%, and in Indonesia - 69%.New playerAfter the creation of the cartel, seven more organizations joined the original five organizations. Thus, their number has expanded to 12. All OPEC member states have achieved independent control over their natural resources and their exploitation, taking into account only national interests. On September 1, 1965, OPEC found its Secretariat in Vienna.How it functionsDuring all this time, the composition of OPEC has changed several times. Nevertheless, the main organs remain the same:The ConferenceThe CouncilSecretariatThe Conference is a body that has a great influence. It is headed by the General Secretary. Meetings of the heads of energy ministries and other representatives of states are held twice a year within the framework of the conference. However, the main task of these negotiations is always to determine the state of the world oil market. Moreover, OPEC members are developing a plan to maintain stability in the market. Special attention is paid to the forecasts of the future situation in the world of oil and oil products.It should be noted that the organization, consisting of 12 states, owned most of the oil fields around the world. In the 1990s, Gabon left the organization, and Ecuador independently suspended its membership until the fall of 2007. Russia became an observer of the organization in 1998.OPEC basketThe cartel has adopted such a term as the OPEC basket. In short, this expression means the arithmetic average of the prices of oil grades produced in the member countries of the association. Today, OPEC members pay attention not only to the cost of a single variety, but also to the price of the entire OPEC basket. If we compare the graph of the oil basket and the graph of the share prices of OPEC oil companies, we will notice a correlation.Here is the full list of OPEC member countries:AlgeriaIranAngolaKuwaitIraqGabonEcuadorLibyaNigeriaQatarEquatorial GuineaSaudi ArabiaThe average value of the oil price of these countries is the basket.Consequences of the OPEC organizationOver time, the demand for oil increased, and the OPEC member countries carried out several coordinated actions. For example, the Arab participants established an oil embargo of Western countries in the 70s because of their support for Israel. In response, the price of oil on the world market soared by 400%: from $3 to $12. At the peak of demand-in the summer of 2008, a barrel of oil was already worth $140.73.What is OPEC+ and what is the difference from OPECOPEC+ is an association of countries that are not members of OPEC, but cooperate with it on issues of oil production and export. OPEC+ is less organized, but still has large oil reserves and has influence on the world market.OPEC+ appeared in 2016 against the background of dissatisfaction with the activities of OPEC by major oil exporters, and now the price of OPEC oil is currently determined by OPEC+.Both in OPEC and in OPEC+, no country is subordinate to another, although there is an unspoken influence. To present the current state of affairs in the oil market, let's get acquainted with the list of the main countries producing and exporting oil.Which countries are members of OPEC+?OPEC+ includes:Azerbaijan;Bahrain;Brunei;Kazakhstan;Malaysia;Mexico;Oman;Russia;Sudan;South Sudan.Statistics of countries on the level of oil productionThis was the state of the distribution of world oil production by in 2020:USA – 15.8%;Russia – 13.5%;Saudi Arabia – 12.1%;Canada – 5.7%;Iraq – 5.6%;China – 4.8%;United Arab Emirates – 4.4%;Brazil – 3.8%;Kuwait – 3.6%;Iran-2.5%;Venezuela – 2.8%;Mexico – 3.3%;Nigeria – 2.3%;Norway – 2.1;Angola – 2.0%.The share of other countries is smaller, as a result of which, if necessary, they unite with the leaders. This list clearly demonstrates that the OPEC+ member countries are far from inferior to the OPEC member countries, which forces both associations to seek compromises and negotiate.You can always find out the schedule of OPEC oil prices, OPEC+ and the schedule of prices for shares of OPEC oil companies here.Oil production in the Persian GulfThe main difference is the cost and transportation of raw materials. This allows Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries of the Persian Gulf to be in the best conditions. Simply put, in the Persian Gulf:Oil usually lies shallow and gushes, that is, it does not require complex pumping equipment;Raw materials are extracted in the conditions of the so-called "eternal summer". There is simply no risk of freezing of wells.The ports are located in close proximity to the production sites. The cost of pipelines is minimal.The cost of oil production is from $8.5 to $12.6.The average break-even price, taking into account transport, taxes, etc. - from <$10 to $22.USA and CanadaAnd how are things with the United States and Canada? Most of the production in the United States is shale oil. This is a completely different method of production, which is very different from production in Russia, Arabia, and other countries. Here, too, briefly:Shale oil is more expensive and it is not always profitable to extract it: at the world price of about $50/barrel of Brent grade.Nevertheless, it is easier to stop shale production in the event of a fall in prices, as well as to resume with an increase.Companies producing shale oil in the United States and Canada are able to protect themselves with financial instruments, that is, they are insured by banks against losses when prices fall.The average break-even price of oil in the United States is $40-49.Why is the US not a member of OPEC or OPEC+?There is always some tension in relations between oil-producing countries. The first reason is different interests and conditions; the other reason is economic and political moments that are unique for each state separately. The United States failed to fit into the format of relations and, with high oil prices, occupied a large niche in the oil market.Another nuance: US companies, in accordance with American law, cannot participate in cartels, since the state authorities simply do not have the right to dictate the volume of production and the level of value to them. This made it difficult for America to partner with other states.How OPEC news affects the world and the economyTo begin with, we note that OPEC news is published regularly: OPEC shares are rising or falling, the cartel calls for reducing oil production or, conversely, increasing it. All these information flows are reflected in the share price of OPEC oil companies and on the charts of OPEC oil prices. The association is acutely reacting to OPEC's own oil reserves in storage, which is seasonal due to uneven oil use and weather conditions.Recently, the number of drilling platforms producing oil in the United States has been growing at a record high and already stands at 387 units. The increase in the cost of oil has a positive effect on the budget and the share price of oil companies. This attracts additional investments and stock market participants for trading, which causes the growth of shares of OPEC oil companies. Negative news and expectations put pressure on the share price of oil companies, which often seriously affects the state of the entire ...