Silver Trading forecasts and signals - page 2

EUR/USD: technical analysis indicates continued growthThe EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, trading near the 1.0902 mark against the background of the weakening of the US dollar. Investors reacted positively to the results of the meeting between representatives of the United States and Ukraine, seeing them as a possible step towards resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but macroeconomic statistics turned out to be ambiguous and could not become a strong driver of price growth.Thus, German imports in January showed a slowdown from 1.6% to 1.2%, while exports moved to negative dynamics, falling from 2.5% to -2.5%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 20.7 billion euros to 16.0 billion euros. At the same time, industrial production accelerated from -1.5% to 2.0% in monthly terms and from -2.26% to -1.49% in annual terms over the same period. The head of the German Federal Bank, Joachim Nagel, expressed support for the initiatives of the future government aimed at easing budget constraints and creating a special fund in the amount of 500.0 billion euros to finance defense and infrastructure projects. At the same time, he stressed that for Germany's long-term economic growth, it is necessary to focus on increasing the supply of labor, reforming the energy sector, reducing bureaucratic barriers and reducing tax pressure on businesses.Resistance levels: 1.0950, 1.1110.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0680.AUD/USD: Australian dollar is holding at 0.6270After rising by 1.44% over the past week, the AUD/USD pair is consolidating at the 0.6270 support, awaiting the February US inflation data, which will be released today at 14:30 (GMT+2).Forecasts suggest that the consumer price index will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, which may increase pressure on the US dollar if the Fed signals a softer monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at the level of March 19 is 97.0%, and its reduction by 25 basis points in May is 40.9%.On Thursday at 02:30 (GMT+2), Australia will publish data on building permits for January: an increase of 6.3% on a monthly basis is expected, which may support the Australian currency. If the indicator is confirmed, it will be a signal of economic recovery after a prolonged recession since the end of 2023.Resistance levels: 0.6370, 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6270, 0.6147.Silver market analysisAfter a short-term consolidation below the 32.00 mark, the XAG/USD pair resumed its growth, which is due to the unique structure of demand for silver. Unlike platinum and palladium, this metal is in demand both in industry and among investors, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in market sentiment. An additional support factor was the growth in the number of Silver Institute participants: seven new companies joined the organization in 2024, and three more in the first two months of 2025, including Skeena Gold & Silver, Silver Tiger Metals, and TCA S.p.A.Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) confirms the increased interest in silver. In recent reporting periods, the number of manufacturers' long positions increased by 0.453 thousand, while sellers reduced volumes by 8,192 thousand contracts. The balance in the segment of positions secured by real capital remains on the side of the bulls — 47,823 thousand against 13,620 thousand for the bears, which indicates a high level of confidence in the asset.Resistance levels: 33.10, 34.80.Support levels: 32.30, 30.80.Crude Oil market analysisIn the morning trading, WTI Crude Oil continues to strengthen, developing the growth momentum that was formed the day before, and is testing the 66.30 level for an upward breakout. However, traders remain cautious, preferring to wait for the publication of US inflation data at 14:30 (GMT+2), which may affect the dynamics of quotations.According to preliminary forecasts, the core consumer price index for February will slow down to 3.2% in annual terms (against 3.3% earlier) and 0.3% on a monthly basis (from 0.4%), while the overall index will decrease from 3.0% to 2.9% and from 0.5% to 0.3%, respectively. Nevertheless, the dollar's reaction may be restrained, as investors are more focused on the trade policy of the Donald Trump administration. This month, 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% tariffs on a number of Chinese goods, have already entered into force, and new restrictions on steel and aluminum supplies to the United States are expected in the near future.Additional pressure on the market was exerted by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed an increase in oil reserves by 4.247 million barrels for the week of March 7 after a previous decrease of 1.455 million barrels, while experts predicted an increase of only 2.1 million barrels. At 15:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released, which, according to forecasts, will also reflect an increase in reserves by 2.1 million barrels after a previous increase of 3.614 million barrels. Additionally, the agency adjusted the forecast of oil production in 2025, increasing it by 20 thousand. barrels per day — up to 13.61 million barrels.Resistance levels: 67.00, 67.50, 68.25, 69.00.Support levels: 66.00, 64.96, 64.00, ...

EUR/USD: ECB member Schnabel explains the economic weakness of the eurozoneThe EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, holding at the level of 1.0460, despite the weakening of the US dollar. Macroeconomic statistics remain weak and do not contribute to the strengthening of the euro. In January, the consumer price index in the eurozone decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, which led to an annual increase from 2.4% to 2.5%. However, core inflation slowed by 0.9%, remaining at 2.7%. This creates the conditions for further easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), as economic growth continues to slow down. In Germany, the recession is intensifying: in the fourth quarter, GDP decreased from 0.1% to -0.2% month-on-month and from -0.3% to -0.2% year-on-year, indicating a deterioration in the economic situation.Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by a decrease in the German consumer climate index from GfK Group, which fell from -22.6 to -24.7 points in March, while analysts had forecast -21.7 points. The reason for the weakening of the indicator was the political instability in the country. Meanwhile, ECB board member Isabelle Schnabel said that the main reason for the economic weakness of the eurozone remains structural problems, and not the high cost of borrowing, which, according to some experts, limits lending and slows down economic growth.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0680.Support levels: 1.0420, 1.0240.USD/CHF: Bullish momentum is gaining strength, the dollar is strengtheningThe USD/CHF pair continues to grow steadily during the morning trading session, developing an upward movement that began the day before after a rebound from the local lows of December 23, 2024. Quotes are approaching the level of 0.8970, testing the level for an upward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for the release of important macroeconomic data from the United States that can set the further direction of movement.Investors' main attention today is focused on the publication at 15:30 (GMT+2) of US GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as on January statistics on orders for durable goods. The growth rate of the US economy is expected to remain at 2.3%, while orders for capital goods may increase by 2.0% after a decrease of -2.2% a month earlier. The indicator, excluding defense and aviation contracts, is projected to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%. Data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will also be published today: it is assumed that the number of initial applications for the week ending February 21 will increase from 219.0 thousand to 221.0 thousand, and the number of repeat applications (for the period up to February 14) will remain at 1.869 million. On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will monitor the key inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve — the personal consumption expenditures index. According to forecasts, the base rate in annual terms may slow down from 2.8% to 2.6%, while on a monthly basis it is expected to increase from 0.2% to 0.3%. At the same time, the broader index is likely to decline from 2.6% to 2.3%, while maintaining growth at 0.3%. These data may affect the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy and the further dynamics of the dollar.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8952, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.USD/TRY: Turkish Finance Minister confident of success of Erdogan's reformsThe USD/TRY pair remains in a sideways movement, trading near 36.4500 and the recent high of 36.5400, updated at the end of last week. The activity of dollar buyers has decreased against the background of the current macroeconomic background, however, rising yields on US Treasury bonds support demand for the US currency. At the same time, traders take profits by closing some of their long positions, which limits the potential for further appreciation.The lira may strengthen if the forecasts of the Central Bank of Turkey turn out to be correct, but the economic situation remains difficult. Annual inflation slowed to 42.12% in January, but against the background of an increase in the minimum wage, monthly consumer price growth was 5.03%. Investors also drew attention to the refusal of the authorities from the planned increase in the cost of medical services, which may ease inflationary pressure in the coming months: according to preliminary forecasts, the indicator may decrease to 3.0% in February. Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek said that the ongoing structural reform program presented by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the congress of the ruling Justice and Development Party should help stabilize prices, strengthen budget discipline and reduce the current account deficit. The Head of State noted that over the past 22 years, the volume of industrial production with high added value has grown from $95.0 billion to $320.0 billion, and in terms of purchasing power parity, Turkey ranked 11th in the world and 4th in the European Union in 2023.Resistance levels: 36.5000, 36.5406, 36.6000, 36.6500.Support levels: 36.4000, 36.3189, 36.2000, 36.1000.Silver market analysisSilver quotes are showing a downward movement in morning trading, declining again after a slight increase the day before, which temporarily allowed quotes to retreat from the lows of February 11, updated on Tuesday. The asset is testing support at 31.60, being under pressure from the strengthening US dollar. The US currency is supported by technical factors, rising Treasury yields, as well as President Donald Trump's tough tariff policy, which promotes capital outflow into defensive assets. An additional impact is the growing industrial demand, especially in the renewable energy sector, as well as the projected shortage of silver supplies against the background of positive forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for global economic growth in 2025.Investors are awaiting key macroeconomic reports from the United States today, which are scheduled to be published at 15:30 (GMT+2). Among them are GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 and information on durable goods orders for January. Analysts' forecasts suggest that economic growth will remain at 2.3%, and orders for capital goods may increase by 2.0% after falling by -2.2% a month earlier. Excluding aviation and defense contracts, the indicator is expected to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%. The market will also pay attention to statistics on unemployment benefits: the number of initial applications for the week of February 21 is expected to grow from 219.0 thousand to 221.0 thousand, and the number of repeat applications (for the week of February 14) will remain at 1.869 million.The correction in the precious metals market continues, as confirmed by the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the regulator, net speculative positions in silver increased from 49.7 thousand to 54.5 thousand in a week. The balance of market participants has also shifted towards the bulls: their positions secured by real money have increased to 59,139 thousand, while the bears remain at 19,737 thousand. Over the past week, traders have opened an additional 4,380 thousand. purchase contracts, while sales increased by only 0.030 thousand, which indicates continued interest in the asset even against the background of a short-term decline.Resistance levels: 32.00, 32.27, 32.60, 33.00.Support levels: 31.56, 31.30, 31.00, ...

GBP/USD: the regulator urged to maintain tight control over the marketThe pound is holding near 1.2445 during Asian trading: investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of key economic data from the United States.On Thursday, the UK will present a report on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 and December: analysts predict an acceleration in economic growth in annual terms from 0.9% to 1.1%, but expect a decrease of 0.1% on a quarterly basis after a zero change earlier. December figures may show an increase of 0.1%, while industrial production is likely to continue to decline: it is expected to decrease by 2.1% year—on-year after -1.8% a month earlier, and a correction of 0.2% is possible month-on-month after -0.4% in November.The statements of the representatives of the Bank of England remain in the focus of traders' attention. Board member Catherine Mann stressed that her vote for a rate cut at the last meeting did not mean a similar decision in March. She still advocates maintaining a tight monetary policy and considers a neutral rate level in the range of 3.00–3.50%. In an interview with the Financial Times, Mann noted that it will be more difficult for businesses to raise prices in 2025, as the tax burden and rising unemployment reduce the purchasing power of Britons. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, on Tuesday warned politicians against excessive liberalization of financial markets, saying that finding a balance between economic growth and the stability of the system remains a difficult task.Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2261.AUD/USD: White House criticizes Australia for impact on aluminum marketThe Australian dollar shows mixed dynamics in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, holding near the local highs of January 24. Quotes are testing the 0.6290 support, but investors prefer a wait-and-see attitude, keeping an eye on key macroeconomic data that can set the direction of movement.So, at 15:30 (GMT+2), the market expects the publication of the January report on inflation in the United States. Experts predict that the core consumer price index (excluding food and energy) will accelerate from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis, and slow down from 3.2% to 3.1% on an annual basis. The overall indicator may adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%, settling at 2.9%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's next speech to Congress will take place at 17:00 (GMT+2), but analysts do not expect new signals from him regarding monetary policy.Meanwhile, trade tensions between Australia and the United States are intensifying. Peter Navarro, President Donald Trump's trade adviser, said that aluminum supplies from Australia are damaging the American industry, justifying the introduction of 25.0% tariffs on metal imports. The Australian Government continues to seek exclusion from the list of countries subject to the new restrictions. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressed hope that the Australian steel and aluminum industry would not come under sanctions pressure, despite harsh statements from the White House. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, Australia ranks 17th among steel suppliers and 8th in terms of aluminum imports into the country over the past 10 years. In 2024, 223.0 thousand tons of steel and 83.0 thousand tons of aluminum were exported to the United States.Resistance levels: 0.6300, 0.6330, 0.6372, 0.6420.Support levels: 0.6274, 0.6250, 0.6225, 0.6200.Silver market analysisThe corrective decline of the XAG/USD pair has stalled at the resistance of 32.30, and quotes are ready for an upward breakout amid changes in US trade policy.President Donald Trump announced the introduction of 25.0% duties on steel and aluminum imports from all countries without exception, while production transferred to the United States is exempt from them. This creates the prerequisites for an increase in the cost of metals, as the new tariffs will take effect on March 12. According to media reports, the next step of the White House may be to impose restrictions on the supply of copper, which has already caused an increase in prices for raw materials. Yesterday, gold updated its historical high at 2942.00, while silver reached its December peaks at 32.30.According to a report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in silver increased from 44.4 thousand to 50.4 thousand. Buyers continue to dominate the market, strengthening their positions. The balance of transactions with real collateral is 57,040 thousand contracts against 19,670 thousand for sellers. During the week, the bulls increased their assets by 10,178 thousand contracts, while the bears reduced their positions by 0.874 thousand. This indicates an increased demand for defensive assets in the face of rising trading risks.Resistance levels: 32.30, 34.20, 35.50.Support levels: 30.00, 27.80.Crude Oil market analysisDuring morning trading, WTI Crude Oil shows mixed dynamics, holding at 72.75 and the highs recorded on February 3. The main support for the quotes is provided by a reduction in the supply of raw materials from Russia: according to media reports, production volumes in January were below the established OPEC+ quotas, and it remains unclear whether the country will be able to increase production in the coming months.Pressure on the asset is exerted by a recent report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which recorded a sharp increase in commercial fuel reserves: in the week to February 7, the figure increased from 5.025 million to 9.043 million barrels, while analysts expected only 2.8 million. Today at 5:30 p.m. (GMT+2), market participants are awaiting the publication of official statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which predicts a decrease from 8.664 million to 2.8 million barrels. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy has revised its forecast for oil production excluding other liquid hydrocarbons, raising the estimate for 2025 from 13.55 million to 13.59 million barrels per day, and for 2026 from 13.62 million to 13.73 million.The situation in the oil market remains unstable: according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions on WTI Crude Oil decreased from 264.1 thousand to 230.3 thousand contracts last week. At the same time, there is a decrease in interest from sellers: their combined positions among manufacturers decreased from 449,211 thousand to 394,260 thousand. Buyers, on the contrary, increased their activity, increasing contracts by 2,714 thousand, while the "bears" reduced their positions by 20,748 thousand. This indicates a possible further volatility of quotations.Resistance levels: 73.00, 74.00, 75.00, 76.00.Support levels: 72.15, 71.62, 71.00, ...

EUR/USD: business reports from the EU provoke a decline in the dollarThe European currency is strengthening against the US dollar, and the EUR/USD pair is consolidating around 1.0386, supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone.In January, the index of business activity in the German service sector rose from 51.2 to 52.5 points, in France, on the contrary, decreased from 49.3 to 48.2 points, in Italy it decreased from 50.7 to 50.4 points, and the overall indicator for the EU dropped from 51.6 to 51.3 points, remaining in the growth zone. The S&P Global composite index increased from 49.0 to 50.5 points in Germany, remained at 47.6 points in France, and rose from 49.6 to 50.2 points in the eurozone. Additionally, the EU producer price index remained unchanged in December, which was significantly better than the previous drop of 1.2%. Overall, inflation remains under control, which opens up the possibility for the European Central Bank (ECB) to further ease monetary policy.For the first time in a week, the US currency does not respond to fundamental factors: after the publication of statistics, the dollar adjusted downwards, trading at 107.50 in the USDX index. In January, the index of business activity in the US services sector decreased from 56.8 to 52.9 points, while the ISM index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector adjusted from 54.0 to 52.8 points.Resistance levels: 1.0430, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0210.USD/JPY: Bank of Japan confirms policy tightening courseThe USD/JPY pair continues to decline during the Asian session, developing a downward trend that began in mid-January. Quotes are testing the 152.30 level, updating the lows recorded on December 12. The yen is strengthening its position due to the growing demand for defensive assets, while investors are assessing the consequences of the trade policy pursued by the US republican administration.Japan's published macroeconomic data show positive dynamics: the Jibun Bank business activity index in the industrial sector rose from 52.7 to 53.0 points in January, and wages increased by 4.8% in December after rising by 3.9% a month earlier, exceeding analysts' forecasts for a slowdown to 3.8%.Kazuhiro Masaki, Head of the Monetary Affairs Department of the Bank of Japan, confirmed that the regulator is ready to continue raising interest rates if core inflation accelerates to the target level of 2.0%. This statement indicates the authorities' intention to maintain a course towards a gradual tightening of monetary policy, despite the uncertainty associated with US trade tariffs affecting market volatility. Recall that in December, core consumer inflation in Japan reached 3.0% in annual terms, the highest level in the last 16 months. The inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025 has already been revised upward from 1.9% to 2.1%, which reinforces expectations for further steps by the Bank of Japan towards normalization of monetary policy.Resistance levels: 152.74, 153.27, 153.70, 154.50.Support levels: 151.50, 150.50, 150.00, 149.35.Silver market analysisXAG/USD quotes continue their local corrective trend, strengthening after trying to stay below 31.00 at the beginning of the month. The instrument is currently testing the 32.23 level, setting the stage for further growth.The delayed imposition of trade duties on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, initiated by the administration of Donald Trump, has become a positive factor for the metals market. Washington agreed to postpone the restrictions for 30 days after the governments of the two countries promised to strengthen control over illegal migration and the fight against the smuggling of prohibited substances. However, the ongoing trade tensions continue to worry investors: more than 60% of U.S. silver is purchased from Canada and Mexico, and the dependence of the American market on these suppliers forced the White House to adjust planned tariffs on energy and raw materials in the mining sector from 25% to 10%. Despite this, the expansion of protectionist policies increases the level of uncertainty and stimulates demand for protective assets, including silver.Support levels: 31.80, 29.60.Resistance levels: 32.60, 34.50.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the morning session, WTI Crude Oil quotes continued to trade near their lowest values since December 30, holding at 71.00 under pressure from the foreign economic policy of the Donald Trump administration, which is accompanied by new trade restrictions.Since the beginning of February, the White House has imposed increased duties on a number of countries, but then postponed the date of entry into force of sanctions against Mexico and Canada for a month. In response, China announced mirror measures by increasing tariffs on imports of American goods. Now the market's attention is shifting to possible trade barriers between the US and the EU: earlier, Trump said that Europe was behaving "terribly" towards America. Brussels has already made it clear that they are ready to impose retaliatory restrictions if Washington raises taxes on European products.Additional pressure on prices was exerted by data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA): in the week ended January 31, commercial oil reserves in the United States increased by 8.664 million barrels, significantly exceeding the projected 3.2 million barrels. Similar data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) also recorded an increase in reserves of 5.03 million barrels against 3.17 million a week earlier. Meanwhile, OPEC has been reducing hydrocarbon production for the second month in a row: according to Reuters, in January, production decreased by 50,000 barrels per day to 26.53 million. The largest decrease was recorded in Nigeria and Iran (-60,000 barrels), as well as in Saudi Arabia and Iraq. At the same time, Saudi Arabian Oil Group raised the price of Arab Light oil for the Asian market by $2.40 per barrel in March, which was a record level over the past two years, reflecting higher premiums for Middle Eastern raw materials and improved margins for refineries.Resistance levels: 71.00, 71.62, 72.15, 73.00.Support levels: 70.00, 69.00, 68.30, ...

EUR/USD: the market is considering easing the US tariff policyThe EUR/USD pair is correcting upward after testing support at 1.0221, seeking to gain a foothold in the 1.0302 area amid a review of US trade policy.The day before, US President Donald Trump unexpectedly softened his rhetoric regarding new duties: the initially announced 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, which was supposed to take effect on February 4, was postponed for 30 days after talks with Mexican leader Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It is expected that during this time the parties will be able to reach a compromise. Against the background of this news, investors actively withdrew from risky assets at the beginning of Monday's trading, which led to a 1.46% decline in the euro, but later the quotes regained some of their losses, ending the day with a drop of only 0.18%. Postponing the introduction of trade barriers has increased demand for the European currency, but further risks remain. If the White House starts discussing similar tariffs on imports from the EU, the EUR/USD pair may not only update the January low at 1.0177, but also test parity.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0630, 1.0820.Support levels: 1.0220, 1.0085, 1.0000.AUD/USD: Trump temporarily freezes increase in duties on Mexican importsThe Australian dollar holds its position in the AUD/USD pair, trading at 0.6199, remaining above the minimum values of last year. Despite the neutral reaction of the market to macroeconomic statistics, quotes remain stable against the background of adjustments in the positions of the US currency.After a significant strengthening at the beginning of the week, the US dollar fell back to Monday's levels, trading around 108.60 in the USDX index. This happened after the White House announced a temporary postponement of 25.0% of duties on Mexican goods, as the Mexican authorities agreed to increase the number of national guards on the border with the United States by 10.0 thousand people to combat illegal migration and drug trafficking. An additional factor influencing the dynamics of the pair will be the publication at 17:00 (GMT+2) of December statistics on the number of open vacancies in the US labor market (JOLTS). It is expected that the figure will decrease from 8.098 million to 8.010 million, which may increase pressure on the US currency.Resistance levels: 0.6260, 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6150, 0.6000.Silver market analysisDuring the morning trading on February 4, silver quotes showed mixed dynamics, holding near the $31.50 per ounce mark, which is close to two-month highs. The day before, silver prices showed rapid growth, which was the market's reaction to the publication of the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed). The regulator kept the interest rate at 4.50%, emphasizing the desire to ensure maximum employment and reduce inflation to the target level of 2% in the long term. At the same time, the Committee on Open Market Operations (FOMC) is ready to adjust its approach to monetary policy depending on economic conditions.According to forecasts, the global silver market will remain in short supply in 2025. Total supply will increase by 3% to 1.05 billion ounces, reaching an 11-year high. Production will increase by 2% to 844 million ounces, which will be a seven-year high. Demand for silver will remain stable at 1.2 billion ounces, while industrial consumption will grow by 3% and exceed 700 million ounces for the first time. Physical investment in silver will also increase by 3% due to increased demand in Europe and North America. However, the demand for jewelry will decrease by 6%, mainly due to high prices in India.Resistance levels: 31.00, 31.30, 31.56, 32.00.Support levels: 30.77, 30.50, 30.25, 30.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading on February 4, coffee quotes show mixed dynamics. Arabica futures on the New York ICE Exchange have reached a new record, approaching $4 per pound, due to extremely limited supplies and concerns about future harvests. Earlier, on January 30, Arabica prices reached a historic high of $3,7685 per pound, which is 1.9% higher than the previous session.The situation on the coffee market remains tense due to adverse weather conditions in key producing countries. In Brazil, which provides almost half of the world's arabica production, the drought caused significant damage to last year's crop, resulting in a sharp reduction in certified arabica stocks by almost 100,000 bags, to about 900,000 bags. In addition, farmers in Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta, are holding back sales in anticipation of further price increases, which also helps to limit supply in the market.Experts note that Brazil's current buffer reserves have decreased to 500,000 bags (60 kg) against the traditional 8 million bags, which means that any additional weather disasters could have a significant impact on global coffee prices. Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam are also showing an increase. As of February 3, 2025, the average price was 130,600 VND per kilogram, which is 1,700 VND more than in the previous trading session.Resistance levels: 4.00, 4.10.Support levels: 3.70, ...

EUR/USD: investors are watching the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the ECBThe euro is showing moderate growth in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, correcting after a sharp drop the day before: the asset is testing the 1.0440 mark for an upward breakout, while traders expect new triggers for market movements and details about the trade policy of US President Donald Trump. The US currency continues to receive support after recent statements by the head of the White House about the possible imposition of tariffs on imports of semiconductors, pharmaceutical products and steel in order to stimulate domestic production. Recall that from February 1, 25.0% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico will come into force, but the fate of similar measures against the EU and China remains uncertain.The US macroeconomic statistics published the day before turned out to be contradictory: orders for durable goods in December fell by 2.2% after falling by 2.0% in the previous month, while analysts expected an increase of 0.8%, and the indicator excluding the transport sector added 0.3% after a decrease of 0.2% in November with a forecast of 0.4%.. The Richmond Federal Reserve's industrial business activity index rose from -10.0 to -4.0 points in January, beating forecasts of -8.0 points.Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by the results of an ECB survey, according to which in the fourth quarter of 2024, eurozone financial institutions tightened lending conditions for businesses, and this trend is likely to continue in the coming months. Analysts note that borrowing volumes are declining amid weak domestic demand, slowing exports and government spending cuts. The most stringent credit conditions are recorded in commercial real estate, trade, the construction sector and energy-intensive industries.Resistance levels: 1.0456, 1.0500, 1.0554, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253.AUD/USD: inflation in Australia accelerated to 2.5%The Australian dollar is showing weakness in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, continuing its downward movement in the short term. Quotes are trying to break through the 0.6235 level, and traders are evaluating the latest inflation data in the country.According to published statistics, in December, the consumer price index rose to 2.5% yoy from 2.3% previously, but remained at 0.2% in quarterly terms, contrary to expectations of growth to 0.3%. At the same time, the overall figure for the year decreased from 2.8% to 2.4%, falling short of the projected 2.5%. Core inflation, calculated by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) using the truncated average method, also weakened – from 3.6% to 3.2% yoy with a forecast of 3.3% and from 0.8% to 0.5% for the quarter instead of the expected 0.6%. The continued slowdown in inflationary pressure strengthens the arguments in favor of the RBA's soft monetary policy, which puts pressure on the national currency. An additional negative factor for the Australian dollar was the National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index, which dropped to -2.0 points in December after -3.0 points in November, remaining significantly below the average over the past two years.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6274, 0.6300, 0.6330.Support levels: 0.6225, 0.6200, 0.6178, 0.6155.Silver market analysisAfter a prolonged hold below the key level of 30.00 in the second half of the month, silver (XAG/USD) quotes strengthened to 30.40, demonstrating a confident potential for further growth.Market participants are closely following Donald Trump's first steps as president of the United States, especially his plans to impose new duties on imports of raw materials from China, Mexico and Canada. If the tariffs are approved on February 1, it will limit the supply of 62.0% of imported silver to the American market, which could trigger price increases. Additional pressure on the stock sector was exerted by the Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) model DeepSeek, which, according to the developers, is not inferior to ChatGPT, but uses cheaper processors and less data. In just a few days after launch, the app became the most popular in the American App Store, which led to a drop in the quotes of technology giants and an increase in demand for protective assets. In conditions of high market uncertainty, silver remains the most attractive of the liquid metals, significantly inferior in value to gold, platinum and palladium, which makes it a promising investment in the current macroeconomic environment.Resistance levels: 30.80, 32.50.Support levels: 29.90, 28.30.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the morning session, WTI Crude Oil showed a slight decrease, trading around 73.20, after a steady rise the day before. Despite the strengthening of the US dollar caused by Donald Trump's new statements, black gold quotes continued their upward trend. The head of the White House again outlined a tough course on tariff policy, expressing his intention to limit imports of strategically important goods, including computer chips, pharmaceutical products and steel, in order to stimulate domestic production. As early as February 1, 25.0% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico are likely to come into force, which will become part of a strategy to combat illegal migration, but the fate of trade restrictions against the EU and China remains uncertain.An additional factor for the oil market was the risks of disruptions in the supply of raw materials from Libya. According to Bloomberg, the shutdown of the key export terminals Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, through which more than 400.0 thousand barrels pass daily, could reduce the country's exports by a third. If the situation worsens further, Libya risks completely suspending production, which will lead to a loss of 1.4 million barrels per day. Regional conflicts between the internationally recognized government in the west of the country and the eastern authorities, led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, continue to destabilize the oil sector. On January 5, representatives of the Oil Crescent movement threatened to block production and exports if the state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) did not relocate the headquarters of five energy companies to the eastern region, where the main production facilities and terminals are located.Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00.Support levels: 73.00, 72.15, 71.00, ...

EUR/USD: the initiative has moved to the European currencyThe EUR/USD pair is moving within the corrective trend, trading at 1.0419. The European currency is supported by the weakening of the US dollar and positive data on the German economy.In December, the producer price index in Germany decreased from 0.5% to -0.1% month–on-month, and amounted to 0.8% year-on-year, which was lower than the projected 1.1% and the target range of 0.5-1.5%, which allows the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue to adhere to a soft monetary policy. The January index of current economic conditions from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) improved from -93.1 to -90.4 points, although the indicator of economic sentiment decreased from 15.7 to 10.3 points, remaining above the September low of 3.6 points. ZEW President Achim Wambach noted that subdued consumer demand and weak activity in the construction industry remain the main factors of the slowdown in the German economy. The head of the Central Bank of Croatia, Boris Vujicic, added that investors' expectations of a fourfold reduction in ECB rates look justified.The pair's movement is also influenced by the dynamics of the US dollar, which is being adjusted against the background of Donald Trump's inauguration as president and his first steps in economic policy. The USDX index dropped to 107.80 as the market was disappointed by the slow fulfillment of election promises. In particular, instead of the announced increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 40.0% from the first day of the presidency, only 10.0% are being discussed, which will take effect in two weeks.Resistance levels: 1.0460, 1.0620.Support levels: 1.0390, 1.0220.GBP/USD: market focus on employment data for November in BritainThe pound stabilized near the level of 1.2345, being near the local highs of January 9th. The GBP/USD pair maintained its upward momentum despite the publication of mixed data on the UK labor market.In December, the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 0.7 thousand after a decrease of 25.1 thousand in November, while analysts expected an increase of 10.3 thousand. The employment rate rose by 35.0 thousand, which is significantly lower than the previous increase of 173.0 thousand. According to November data from the Office of National Statistics, the annual increase in regular wages for the three-month period was 5.6%, exceeding the figure of the previous period (5.2%). The overall dynamics, including premiums, also accelerated to 5.6% from 5.2%. These data indicate continued price pressures in the economy. However, analysts expect the Bank of England to cut the rate again in February, although the pace of its reduction is likely to slow down. According to the OECD forecasts, the rate could reach 3.50% by 2026. Alan Taylor, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, noted that the regulator plans four rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of 2025, which will bring it to the level of 3.75%.On Friday, January 24, the GfK Group consumer confidence index and business activity data from S&P Global for January are expected to be published. Forecasts suggest a decrease in the confidence index from -17.0 to -18.0 points. The indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector may slightly increase from 47.0 to 47.1 points, while in the service sector it is expected to decrease from 51.1 to 50.6 points. In the United States, similar data may show a slight decrease in the index of business activity in the service sector from 56.8 to 56.6 points, while the manufacturing sector is likely to strengthen from 49.4 to 49.6 points.Resistance levels: 1.2359, 1.2400, 1.2450, 1.2500.Support levels: 1.2300, 1.2261, 1.2230, 1.2200.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is showing steady growth, trading near the 30.81 mark. Investors are carefully assessing the first steps of Donald Trump as president of the United States, which may significantly affect the silver market.One of the key points of his election program was the introduction of high import duties on goods from China, Mexico, Canada and other countries that are the main exporters of silver ore to the United States. Currently, about 21.0% of the silver consumed in the country is mined in the United States, while 44.0% comes from Mexico and 18.0% from Canada. The proposed duties, which can reach 25.0%, will affect up to 62.0% of imports and, according to preliminary data, will enter into force on February 1. Against this background, large commodity traders are beginning to reserve metal shipments for the future. According to JPMorgan Chase & Co., since the beginning of the year, borrowing rates on gold and silver contracts have increased sevenfold, and silver reserves in Comex vaults have increased by 22.0 million ounces. The growing demand has also affected the prices of investment silver. According to the U.S. Mint, the value of the Maple Leaf coin may rise from $36.0 to $45.0 by the end of the month amid an increase in the number of orders.Resistance levels: 31.30, 33.00.Support levels: 30.30, 28.70.Crude Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices showed a slight decrease in the morning session, trading around the 75.50 mark and remaining near the local lows recorded on January 10. Quotes continue the downward trend that began in the middle of last week, when they briefly approached the level of 80.00 and updated the highs of July 19.The market is under pressure from concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States. In the first hours after the inauguration, Trump announced major changes in the country's energy policy. In particular, he lifted restrictions on the development of deposits in coastal areas imposed by the previous administration of Joe Biden, and called for an increase in production at existing fields. In addition, the president signed a declaration on the emergency situation in the energy sector, which is aimed at attracting investments in resource extraction and increasing strategic oil reserves in the United States.Additional pressure on the price of oil is exerted by information from the Kuwait National Petroleum Corporation (KPC) about the new large Al-Jley'a field located offshore the Persian Gulf. According to preliminary data, the field's reserves may reach 800 million barrels of oil and natural gas, which increases concerns about an oversaturation of the market.Resistance levels: 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 79.33.Support levels: 75.00, 74.00, 73.00, ...

EUR/USD: ECB to maintain soft exchange rate – Deutsche BankThe quotes of the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session show a corrective trend, holding near the 1.0349 mark. The euro has resumed its decline after an unsuccessful attempt at growth, while volatility is increasing amid investor interest following the release of key macroeconomic data.Inflation figures for December were in the spotlight. The consumer price index rose from -0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis, and from 2.2% to 2.4% on an annual basis. The base indicator also increased from -0.6% to 0.5%, consolidating at 2.7%. In France and Italy, the dynamics remained unchanged, stopping at 1.3%. Although inflation is showing an increase, its indicators are in line with the expectations of the European Central Bank (ECB). Deutsche Bank analysts believe that the regulator will continue to adhere to the current strategy, basing its actions on general economic trends, rather than on individual indicators. According to forecasts, the harmonized index of inflation may fall below the target level of 2.0% as early as February, which will allow the ECB to begin reducing rates to a sub-neutral level during the year.The strengthening of the US dollar continues to exert pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The US currency was supported by positive data from the labor market: the number of job openings in November increased to 8,098 million, according to JOLTS, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 7,730 million. In addition, the ISM index of business activity in the service sector rose from 52.1 to 54.1 points in December, reflecting improved business conditions. Against this background, the US dollar is steadily strengthening its position, reaching the level of 108.4 points in the USDX index.Support levels: 1.0300, 1.0150.Resistance levels: 1.0390, 1.0580.USD/CHF: exchange rate growth supported by inflation data for DecemberThe USD/CHF pair is holding near the 0.9097 mark and demonstrates readiness to continue growth, focusing on the resistance level of 0.9158. The exchange rate is supported by published data on inflation in Switzerland.In December, the consumer price index remained at -0.1% on a monthly basis, in line with experts' expectations and the previous indicator, continuing its decline for the fourth month in a row. In annual terms, inflation slowed from 0.7% to 0.6%, which opens up opportunities for the Swiss National Bank to maintain a dovish monetary policy at the next meeting scheduled for March 20. In December, the regulator lowered the interest rate to 0.5%, which was the lowest level since November 2022.The updated forecasts of the department suggest that the average inflation in 2025 will be 0.3%, and in 2026 — 0.8%. Among the world's leading economies, inflation rates are lower only in China, where the rate is 0.2% per annum. To stimulate price growth, Switzerland may need to take additional measures, such as raising borrowing costs or increasing the volume of liquidity in the economy. Both scenarios may put pressure on the franc exchange rate, contributing to the strengthening of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 0.9158, 0.9244.Support levels: 0.9022, 0.8917.USD/CAD: foreign trade has become a CAD growth driverThe USD/CAD exchange rate stabilized around the 1.4349 mark, against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar, which was facilitated by positive macroeconomic statistics from Canada.According to Statistics Canada, exports increased by 2.2% in November, exceeding the previous month's growth of 1.7%, while imports increased by 1.8% after 0.3% earlier. This dynamic has made it possible to reduce the trade deficit from $544 million to $323 million. However, exports of services decreased by 0.2% to $18.2 billion, while imports decreased by 0.1% to $18.5 billion. In addition, the Ivey composite Business Activity Index (PMI) rose to 54.7 points from 52.3 points, indicating a recovery in the business environment in the country.At the same time, the attention of market participants is focused on the developing political crisis. On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to leave office after choosing a new leader of the Liberal Party. Donald Trump, the US president-elect, in turn, spoke about the need to stop supporting Canada through American trade subsidies and hinted that the country's inclusion in the United States could stabilize its economy and increase its security. Earlier, Trump had already announced the possibility of imposing 25% duties on Canadian imports, which, according to him, could radically change the situation in the economy of the northern neighbor.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4150.Resistance levels: 1.4400, 1.4550.Silver market analysisSilver quotes (XAG/USD) stabilized around $30.0 per ounce after a temporary decline below this level. The instrument was supported by the weakening of the US currency, which reached an annual low of 107.5 points in the USDX index.With the beginning of a softer monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, silver is showing sensitivity to rate forecasts. However, this year, most analysts expect them to remain in the range of 4.25–4.50%. According to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of such a scenario is 95.2%. The recovery of the American economy is also supported by fresh data: the index of business activity in the service sector increased from 56.1 to 56.8 points, the composite indicator rose from 54.9 to 55.4 points, although 56.6 points were expected. The number of vacancies in the non-agricultural sector, according to JOLTS, also increased to 8.098 million from 7,839 million previously.Trading activity in the silver market is showing growth. On Monday, the volume of transactions reached 80.0 thousand contracts, which exceeds the figures of January 2 and 3 at 59.0 and 43.0 thousand, respectively. In addition, option positions are also increasing: the day before, their volume amounted to 11,970 thousand against 5,700 thousand last week. These indicators indicate the optimism of market participants who expect silver prices to strengthen and form long positions for the long term.Support levels: 29.60, 27.90.Resistance levels: 30.60, ...