Dow Jones Trading forecasts and signals - page 2

USA: inflation and labor market expectationsToday, traders who prefer forex trading based on the news are focused on two news items from the United States – the ISM industrial business activity index for March and the JOLTs report on the number of vacancies for February. According to forecasts, the ISM index will remain at the level of the previous month, but regional data indicate a possible decline amid trade uncertainty. The Federal Reserve pays special attention to JOLTs data as an indicator of labor demand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions.The Eurozone: inflation and the labor marketPublished inflation data in the leading economies of the eurozone turned out to be mixed: France, Spain and Germany recorded a slowdown, while in Italy inflation turned out to be higher than expected. Overall, the HICP index for the eurozone is likely to decline from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms, driven by lower prices for energy and services. Despite this, the ECB remains inclined to lower rates in April. Unemployment data is also expected to be published today, which is projected to remain at 6.2%, indicating the stability of the labor market.Denmark and Sweden: Wages and PMIIn Denmark, data on wage growth in the private sector for the first quarter will be published. In the fourth quarter of 2024, nominal salaries increased by 4.6% year-on-year, providing a 2.9% increase in real incomes. Wage growth is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2025, but will be lower than in the previous year.In Sweden, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector for March is expected to be around 53 points, which corresponds to the level of the last five months. In February, the figure was 53.5, with all components except inventories showing growth, including new orders, production, and employment.Overview of global marketsAsian markets: Central Bank policy and business activityThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the key rate at 4.10%, which was in line with expectations. The regulator expressed confidence in a gradual decrease in inflation, but noted the risks of a slowdown in domestic demand. Financial markets have already priced in two or three rate cuts before the end of 2025.In Japan, a quarterly Tankan survey was published, the results of which were mixed. The index of business sentiment of large industrial companies decreased from 14 to 12, which was the lowest value for the year. At the same time, the service sector showed improvement, with the indicator rising from 33 to 35, reaching its highest level since 1991, boosted by increased consumer spending and a record influx of foreign tourists. Inflation expectations in Japan continue to rise, which supports the Bank of Japan's plans to further tighten policy.In China, the Caixin private business activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector rose to 51.2 points (against the forecast of 51.1), which was the highest value since November. The growth was driven by improved demand conditions and an increase in foreign orders to a maximum in 11 months.European markets: inflation and GDPIn Germany, the HICP index dropped to 2.3% year-on-year (versus the forecast of 2.4%), mainly due to falling energy prices (-2.8% versus -1.6% in February). A slowdown in service sector inflation (to 3.4% from 3.8%) may be a key factor for the ECB when deciding on a rate cut.Danish GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 was revised up to 1.8% QoQ (from 1.6% QoQ in the preliminary estimate), and annual economic growth was 3.7% (+0.1 percentage points to the previous forecast). The pharmaceutical sector continues to make the main contribution to growth, but other industries are expected to become more active in 2025.In Norway, organizations representing the interests of workers in industry have agreed on a 4.4% wage increase in 2025, which is slightly lower than Norges Bank's forecast (4.5%). This confirms the trend towards a slowdown in wage growth, despite a stable labor market, which opens up opportunities for a gradual easing of monetary policy.Stock markets: dynamics and expectationsGlobal stock markets came under pressure again yesterday, but the dynamics differed from previous sessions due to trade wars. In the US, major indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones is up 1.0%, the S&P 500 is up 0.6%, while the Nasdaq is down 0.1% and the Russell 2000 index of small companies is down 0.6%.The growth of the American market was quite broad: 21 out of 25 industry indexes ended the day in positive territory. However, the predominance of defensive sectors indicates that investors prefer safer assets, despite the improvement in sentiment. Volatility (VIX) has increased, even despite the rise of the S&P 500, which signals continued caution.Asian markets are mostly growing today, especially in export-oriented South Korea and Taiwan. European futures are also trading higher, while American futures are showing a decline.Currency and debt marketsThe US bond market ended the day with an increase in yields on the short section of the curve: 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 5 bps, and the yield on 10-year UST was 4.21%. The rumors about the ECB's tougher stance supported the yield on 2-year German bonds, but did not have a significant impact on the euro exchange rate. The EUR/USD pair gradually declined to 1.08.USD/JPY continues to consolidate near 150.00. The EUR/SEK pair rose to 11.86, partly due to factors related to the end of the month. The Norwegian krone (NOK) initially weakened, but ended the day unchanged against the euro at 11.36. In the future, Scandinavian currencies will react to trade tariff decisions, while the Swedish krona (SEK) may be vulnerable to dividend ...

Eurozone: Focus on inflation in GermanyToday, the main focus of investors and analysts is on German inflation data for March, which anticipates the overall figures for the eurozone expected tomorrow.Earlier, inflation in France and Spain was below forecasts, which is a positive signal for the European Central Bank (ECB). It will be important to see if the same trend is reflected in Germany.According to forecasts, the eurozone HICP index will decrease from 2.3% YoY to 2.1% YoY, mainly due to lower inflation in the energy and services sectors.China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI – is growth possible?In China, the Industrial Business Activity Index (Caixin PMI) is expected to be published today. The consensus forecast assumes a slight decrease from 50.8 to 50.6, but there is a possibility of strengthening the result. This is due to improved data on other indicators, such as the Yicai index and rising metal prices in March.Denmark: Correction of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024Revised Danish GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published today. The preliminary report showed solid economic growth of 1.6% QoQ. However, quick estimates are always accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty, so it is important to understand how significant the possible adjustments will be.Sweden: Completion of wage negotiationsMajor industry salary negotiations are due to expire in Sweden today, which creates additional pressure on the negotiating parties. Initially, it was proposed to conclude a three-year agreement at the level of 7.7%, which is lower than expected and may indicate the risks of a downward revision of wage forecasts.Australia: Reserve Bank to keep interest rate at 4.10%The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to leave its key interest rate at 4.10% tomorrow morning, in line with market consensus. At the last meeting, the RBA began a cycle of rate cuts, but did not give clear signals of further easing. Currently, the markets forecast 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, but the probability of maintaining the current level tomorrow is estimated at 90%.Japan: Expectations for the Tankan report and the policy of the Bank of JapanTonight, the Bank of Japan will publish the quarterly Tankan business survey. The PMI indexes indicate steady growth in the first quarter, but the significant decline in March raises questions. The Tankan data is particularly important in the context of the Bank of Japan's future policy: positive results may strengthen expectations for further rate hikes. The spring wage negotiations also confirm the trend towards tightening monetary policy.Main focus of the week: trade duties and their impactThis week, the markets are monitoring the development of the situation around tariffs, especially from the United States. New widespread tariffs are expected to be announced on Wednesday, as well as possible retaliatory measures from other countries. At night, information was received that the United States could impose restrictions against "all countries," which contradicts earlier statements. In addition, the possibility of new sanctions against Russian oil buyers is being discussed.The final event of the week will be the US employment report for March, which is scheduled to be published on Friday.Macroeconomic events and market newsUSA: The core PCE index for February rose by 0.4% mom (consensus: 0.3% mom), which is higher than expected. At the same time, the overall PCE index showed an increase of 0.3% mom, in line with forecasts. The real volume of consumer spending increased by only 0.1% mom, which indicates a restrained mood among consumers.China: The official composite PMI rose to 51.4 in March from 51.1 in February. The index in the non–manufacturing sector rose to 50.8 (from 50.4), reflecting a recovery in the services sector, while the manufacturing PMI reached an annual maximum of 50.5.Norway: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.0% in March, as predicted. The number of new vacancies decreased slightly, which may indicate a moderate weakening in demand for labor. At the same time, the growth of retail sales in the last three months (by 1.3%) confirms the positive trends in consumption.Japan: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's March meeting showed that participants recognize the importance of recent wage increases as a factor for further rate increases. However, concern was expressed about the weakness of investment among small and medium-sized enterprises, which casts doubt on the sustainability of current wage growth.Geopolitical factors: trade conflicts and sanctionsUS President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened to impose tariffs from 25% to 50% on imports from countries that buy Russian oil if Moscow does not take steps to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. This statement followed Putin's words about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. In the coming days, Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Putin, which may determine the further vector of the situation.Stock markets: going into defensive assetsGlobal stock indexes closed in the "red zone" on Friday as investors reduced their risk appetite ahead of the weekend.US index results on Friday:• Dow Jones: -1,7%• S&P 500: -2,0%• Nasdaq: -2,7%• Russell 2000: -2,1%The negative sentiment continues in Asia, where the Japanese yen acts as a defensive asset. The Japanese Nikkei index has declined by more than 4% at the time of writing, and the exchanges of exporting countries are also showing a significant drop.Stock index futures in Europe and the United States point to continued declines, along with falling yields at the long end of the U.S. Treasury bond curve.Dynamics of the currency and debt marketsU.S. government bonds ended last week higher as PCE data, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and threats of new tariffs from Trump sparked caution in the markets. Stocks in the United States have fallen sharply, especially in the technology sector.Currency movements• The JPY strengthened against the major G10 currencies• EUR/USD rose above 1.1080• EUR/NOK rose to 11.35• EUR/SEK ended the week at 11.84This week, the key factor remains the issue of new tariffs, which will determine the dynamics of global ...

Inflation data and economic activity in the USAThis week, the February report on the Personal consumer Spending Index (PCE), which is the preferred indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System (FRS), will be published in the United States. In addition, the revised consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for March is expected to be released. Although revised data rarely have a significant impact on markets, in conditions of political uncertainty, it is worth paying increased attention to them.Inflation in the eurozone: expectations of a decline in indicatorsIn the eurozone, investors' attention will be focused on the March inflation data in Spain and France, the publication of which precedes the pan-European HICP index, which will be released next week. Inflation in the euro area is projected to decrease from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms, due to easing price pressures on energy and services. Core inflation is also expected to decrease from 2.6% to 2.4%.Sweden: wage negotiations and retail salesNegotiations on a new wage agreement are continuing in Sweden, which is expected to be concluded by March 31. The latest proposal suggests a three-year agreement with a 7.7% salary increase, which is lower than expected. This may indicate possible downside risks in salary growth forecasts. The retail sales report for February will also be released this week. Sales showed steady growth last year, but the January decline and low consumer confidence may signal a continuation of the downward trend.China: restoration of industrial productionIn China, official PMI indices for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors for March will be released on Monday. The consensus forecast assumes a moderate increase in indicators, but a more significant rise is likely, given the positive dynamics of the Emerging Industries PMI index and rising metal prices in March. This indicates a possible recovery in activity in the industrial sector.Markets and macroeconomic developmentsUSA: comments from the Fed representativesIn the United States, Susan Collins, a representative of the Boston Fed, said that an increase in inflation due to the introduction of tariffs is inevitable, but its duration remains uncertain, and monetary policy should remain unchanged. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that high uncertainty could force businesses to temporarily suspend activity, which also requires a cautious approach to monetary policy.Gold and commodity marketsGold prices reached $3,076.79 per ounce as the introduction of new tariffs in the United States, geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in global economic growth led to increased demand for defensive assets.Japan: rising inflation reinforces expectations of rate hikesJapan has published data on the consumer price index in Tokyo for March. The core CPI index (excluding fresh food) rose to 2.4% YoY, exceeding the consensus forecast (2.2%). This reinforces expectations of further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan. We forecast two rate hikes of 25 bps each before the end of the year, the next of which is likely to take place in July.USA: revised GDP and reaction to new tariffsIn the United States, the revised GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was adjusted upward to 2.4% (consensus forecast: 2.3%) due to a less pronounced negative contribution from inventory changes. The number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits remained stable.The announcement of the introduction of 25% tariffs on cars caused a mixed reaction among US trading partners. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that trade relations with the United States have changed and a review of agreements is required. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the development of measures to protect the interests of the EU.Eurozone: credit momentum and ECB rhetoricIn February, lending in the eurozone continued to grow: household lending increased to 1.5% (from 1.3% in January), and to the corporate sector — to 2.2% (from 2.0%). This indicates that the effects of lower interest rates are being transferred to the real economy. However, the credit impulse, estimated at 1.17% of GDP, remains low by historical standards, despite the ECB's rate cut of 150 bps over the past year.The speeches of the ECB representatives were mixed. Many members of the Governing Council stressed the inflationary risks associated with tariffs, indicating a gradual shift by the regulator towards a more cautious approach.Norway: Central bank policyThe Bank of Norway left its key interest rate at 4.50%, but maintained a relaxed outlook. Two rate cuts are expected in 2025 and a possible cut in June under favorable conditions. We are revising the forecast for 2025 and expect two rate cuts (in September and December), three cuts in 2026 and a final cut in 2027 to 3.00%.Stock markets: reactions to new tariffsStock markets declined, but not as significantly as might have been expected after the announcement of the new tariffs. The S&P 500 lost 0.3%, while the European Stoxx 600 declined 0.5%. Over the past two weeks, American stocks have outperformed European stocks by 2 percentage points, but we recommend focusing on the fundamental factors that continue to favor Europe.The protective sectors showed the greatest growth — consumer goods and healthcare, while the technology sector (Nvidia), industry (automobiles) and energy declined. It is important to consider the ability of companies to price in the new environment. For example, Volkswagen shares declined by only 1.5%, while Stellantis fell by 4.2%, BMW by 2.5%, and French supplier Valeo lost 8% after announcing the need to raise prices due to tariffs.The European real estate sector grew by 2% due to lower European bond yields amid tariff news.The foreign exchange marketEUR/USD remains in the range of 1.08–1.09 with a slight advantage of the bulls. European interest rates have changed little, but the government bond yield curve continues to show an upward trend. The Swedish krona (SEK) exchange rate remains stable, but in the short term, upward risks in cross-rates are ...

Key economic events and market trendsUSA: GDP revision and tariff impactIn the second half of the day, a revised estimate of GDP growth will be published in the United States. However, no significant impact on the markets is expected.The main news was the announcement by the US president of the introduction of a 25% tariff on imports of foreign cars and auto parts from April 2. The move has raised concerns among trading partners, including the EU and Canada, which are considering retaliatory measures. The impact of these tariffs on inflation also remains in focus, as they may increase price pressures, leading to a review of the Fed's policy.In addition, in February, orders for durable goods increased by 0.9% against the forecast of -1.0%. However, this did not lead to significant movements in the market.Eurozone: credit activity and ECB policyData on monetary aggregates and lending will be published in the eurozone today. In the context of the ECB's ongoing debate on monetary policy rigidity, credit growth data will be key. In recent months, lending to the private sector has increased to 2% YoY, but the momentum (the difference between new and repaid loans) remains stable at 1%, indicating continued policy rigidity.In addition, representatives of the ECB, including Isabelle Schnabel, will speak today, which may give additional signals on the future policy course.Norway: Norges Bank rate decisionNorges Bank is expected to lower its key rate to 4.25%, despite the fact that market expectations estimate the probability of this step at only 25-30%. Inflation in February was higher than expected, which could support a tougher policy. However, Norges Bank is likely to focus on slowing inflation, low capacity utilization and maintaining a restrictive policy, which may be an argument in favor of lowering interest rates. We also expect the forecasts for 2025-2028 to be revised towards two rate cuts in 2025.United Kingdom: lower inflation and prospects for lower ratesUK inflation in February was lower than expected: the overall index was 2.8% YoY (forecast: 3.0%), while core inflation fell to 3.5% YoY (forecast: 3.6%). These data reinforce expectations of a possible rate cut by the Bank of England at the next meeting, especially if inflation remains within expectations in the April report.In the political sphere, the Government's spring budget was in line with expectations, confirming its commitment to fiscal stability measures. The initial reaction of the bond market was sharp, but by the end of the day, the yield on 10-year Gilts had dropped by only 1-3 bps.Sweden: worsening economic sentimentThe latest NIER economic survey showed a decline in confidence in the economy, especially among consumers, indicating continued weak sentiment. The planned price increase in March was higher than normal, which increases concerns about stagflation.The minutes of the Riksbank meeting reflected a balanced approach: despite high inflation, the bank considers its acceleration as temporary. Overall, the current policy course remains balanced, but the market may overestimate expectations for a rate hike, especially in the face of rising inflation.Geopolitics: tensions between Russia and UkraineThe ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine have reached an impasse, as the sides accuse each other of violating the agreements. The EU has rejected Russia's terms of the Black Sea agreement, raising uncertainty. A meeting of the leaders of the EU and Ukraine will take place in Paris today, where the issue of security will be discussed.Stock market: reaction to trade barriersUS stock markets closed lower amid news about Trump's tariffs. IndexThe S&P 500 fell 1.1%, but the equally weighted S&P 500 declined only 0.2%, indicating targeted sales in the automotive sector, including Tesla and other manufacturers.Despite the negative sentiment, US futures are trading with a slight increase, while European markets are showing weakness.Currency and debt market: expectations of Norges Bank's decisionAmid rising geopolitical risks and tariff news, EUR/USD initially declined, but then recovered, trading just below 1.08. The Scandinavian currencies moved in different directions, with a slight weakening of NOK/SEK.Today, the key event will be Norges Bank's rate decision, and despite the uncertainty, we see the likelihood of a 25bp ...

In the United States, the Conference Board's consumer confidence report for March will be published.Earlier, a similar study by the University of Michigan showed a marked deterioration in sentiment caused by political uncertainty. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, will also give a speech today.The IFO business activity index will be published in Germany. Investors are waiting to see if it will confirm the positive signal from the manufacturing PMI or repeat the decline in the services sector.Sweden will release producer price index data for February. The focus of attention will be on the sub-component of the domestic supply, which most accurately correlates with consumer prices.The Hungarian Central Bank will make a decision on the rate today. The regulator is expected to keep it at 6.50%, which is in line with the market consensus forecast.The People's Bank of China will make a decision on the key rate (1-year rate on medium-term loans). It is expected that it will remain unchanged, as the Central Bank of China is currently taking a wait-and-see attitude ahead of a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.Eurozone: mixed PMI dataThe eurozone PMI for March was weaker than expected, although it generally reflected moderate economic growth. The composite index rose to 50.4 (expected 50.7), which is higher than the February reading of 50.2. The main growth was provided by the manufacturing sector, where the PMI unexpectedly rose to 48.7 (expected 48.2). However, the service sector disappointed, falling to 50.4 (forecast of 51.1, previous value of 50.6).Overall, the PMI data signals a positive start to 2025, with expected GDP growth of 0.2% QoQ. However, these data do not provide clear signals for the ECB's April rate decision, and the market has not changed its expectations yet.USA: industrial downturn amid tariff risksThe preliminary US PMI for March fell to 49.8 from 52.7 in February, reflecting a slowdown in business activity. The data shows the opposite trend compared to the eurozone.The manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction zone again amid uncertainty around trade tariffs, which was reflected in rising commodity prices and lower order volumes and employment. At the same time, the service sector showed a solid recovery, rising to 54.3 (from 51.0).The market reaction to this data was mixed. The EUR/USD exchange rate declined slightly, and the US stock markets played back positive expectations for easing trade restrictions. Donald Trump said that car tariffs will be introduced, but not all measures will take effect on April 2. It is possible that some countries will receive exceptions, which keeps the uncertainty around the US trade policy.UK: PMIs beat forecasts, supporting the poundThe preliminary PMI indices for March in the UK turned out to be better than expected, which led to a decrease in the EUR/GBP exchange rate. The composite index rose to 52.0 (expected 50.5), while growth in the service sector was particularly strong — 53.2 (forecast 51.0). At the same time, the industrial sector continues to experience difficulties, its PMI was 44.6 (47.2 expected).Despite the weak February data, employment figures began to improve. However, this increase should be interpreted with caution due to the increase in the national insurance contribution of employers since April. Pressure on prices in the service sector is decreasing, while the situation in industry remains ambiguous. In general, the data supports the scenario of a gradual easing of the Bank of England's policy with quarterly rate cuts.The geopolitical situationFollowing the talks in Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia continued discussions aimed at establishing a maritime truce in the Black Sea ahead of negotiations on a broader ceasefire in Ukraine. Despite US optimism, the ongoing strikes between the sides highlight the fragility of the 30-day ceasefire.European countries remain skeptical about Russia's willingness to make real concessions, which increases uncertainty around possible agreements. A meeting of the US and Ukrainian delegations is scheduled in Saudi Arabia today.Stock markets: optimism amid lower trade risksEncouraging news about a possible easing of tariffs led to a rise in US stock indexes:• S&P 500 +1.8%• Nasdaq +2.3%• Russell 2000 +2.6%Investors took advantage of the moment to buy, especially the activity was high among Mag 7, which made this the best day for the group since January. Tesla became the main growth leader, adding 12%.In Europe, stock indexes remained at the same levels, despite the positive PMI data. However, activity in cyclical sectors such as banks and commodity companies indicates a latent increase in interest in risky assets.Nevertheless, optimism is waning today: Asian markets are showing multipolar dynamics, and futures on American and European indices are declining.Bonds and the foreign exchange market• The US indices showed growth, and the S&P 500 closed above the 200-day moving average again, which is associated with hopes for a reduction in tariff pressure.• US and European bond yields rose slightly, while spreads to peripheral assets narrowed in Europe.• The EUR/USD pair continues to trade around 1.08, and the improvement in market sentiment has put pressure on the yen.• In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced early elections on April 28, but the reaction of the foreign exchange market was restrained, as this step was expected.• The Norwegian krone was supported by rising oil prices, and EUR/NOK dropped below 11.40.• The Swedish krona strengthened and ended yesterday's session at its lows since the end of 2022, breaking the 10.90 mark.ConclusionsFinancial markets remain in a zone of uncertainty:• In the US, PMI data show a slowdown in industry, but growth in the services sector is still offsetting the negative effect.• In Europe, the PMI confirms a modest improvement in the economy, but does not provide clear signals for the ECB.• Geopolitical factors remain a key risk for the markets, despite the truce talks.Today, investors' attention will be focused on data on consumer confidence in the United States, as well as decisions by the central banks of Hungary and ...

Eurozone: impact of PMI on ECB decisionAn important event this week will be the publication of preliminary PMI indices for March in the eurozone. The data may influence the decision of the European Central Bank on interest rates in April.The composite PMI is expected to rise from 50.2 to 50.6 due to the stabilization of the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing PMI is likely to rise from 47.6 to 48.4, while the indicator of business activity in the service sector will remain at 50.6.The dynamics of the PMI historically correlates with the ZEW index, which also rose in March, which may indicate an improvement in economic expectations.USA: weak dynamics in the manufacturing sectorIn the US, preliminary PMI data for March will also be published. Earlier, regional leading indicators pointed to a slowdown in industrial growth after the winter recovery, which may increase investor concern.The calendar of macroeconomic events in the United States for the current week is quite light. The Conference Board consumer confidence index will be released on Tuesday, and the core PCE price index, which is a key indicator of inflation for the Fed, will be released on Friday.China: stable monetary policy of the People's BankThis week, the People's Bank of China will make a decision on the key interest rate (1-year rate on medium-term MLF loans). It is expected that it will remain unchanged, as the regulator is not in a hurry to take active measures, awaiting further actions by the US Federal Reserve System. With a stable USD/CNY exchange rate, the Chinese Central Bank is more likely to focus on changes in the Fed rate, using alternative mechanisms to support the economy, such as targeted loan programs.Market overview: key events• Japan: The PMI indices for March were worse than expected. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3, the lowest level in a year, while the services index fell to 49.5, dropping below 50 for the first time since August 2020. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, confirmed his readiness to raise rates if core inflation approaches 2%. Two increases of 25 bps are projected in 2024, the next one in July.• USA: Fed members continue to make cautious comments on the regulator's policy. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, said that a moderately restraining policy remains relevant. The Fed is still considering the first rate cut in June, followed by quarterly adjustments of 25 bps to the target range of 3.00–3.25% by June 2026.• Eurozone: The consumer confidence index fell from -13.6 to -14.5 in March, which is a negative signal for the ECB before the April meeting. The deterioration in household expectations calls into question the recovery in private consumption that the regulator is counting on.• Germany: The Upper House of Parliament has approved a large-scale fiscal stimulus package, including 500 billion euros for infrastructure, increased defense spending and easing regional budget constraints. These measures can accelerate economic growth, but also increase inflationary risks.• Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney announced early elections on April 28. Initially, the Conservatives had a significant advantage, but the influence of Donald Trump reduced their gap.Geopolitics: Ukraine negotiations and trade risksConsultations between the United States and Ukraine on energy security and protection of critical infrastructure have begun in Saudi Arabia. Washington expects to conclude a 30-day truce by April 20, but the overnight strikes by both sides show that the situation remains unstable.In addition, Donald Trump confirmed that a new system of reciprocal tariffs will be announced on April 2, which could significantly affect global trade. It remains unclear exactly how the tariff regimes will change, but earlier Trump compared the VAT system in the EU with the actual trade barriers for the United States.Stock markets and currencies• Stock markets: Global indexes ended Friday in a slight negative, but the week as a whole turned out to be positive due to reduced concerns about tariffs. American technologies showed growth: Nasdaq +0.5%, S&P 500 +0.1%, Dow +0.1%. Asian markets are trading in different directions this morning, and futures on European and American indices indicate growth.• Forex: The US dollar ended the week with a strengthening, increasing in price for the third day in a row. EUR/USD briefly dropped below 1.08, but closed slightly higher. Despite the strength of the dollar, the Norwegian and Swedish krona strengthened, EUR/SEK fell below 11.00, and EUR/NOK — to 11.40.Current market conditions remain volatile, and the coming weeks will show how much the Fed's policy, trade risks, and geopolitical tensions will affect asset ...

Betting decisions: key events of the dayToday, the markets are focused on the decisions of three Central Banks at once — the Bank of England (BoE), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Riksbank.The Bank of England is expected to keep the rate at 4.50%, which is in line with analysts' forecasts and current pricing in the market. The regulator's rhetoric is likely to remain unchanged, emphasizing the need for a gradual easing of monetary policy.In turn, the SNB is likely to cut the rate by 25 bps, to 0.25%, given the low inflation risks and weak dynamics of price pressure. Market expectations are also leaning in favor of a reduction, putting about 20 bps of mitigation in prices.The Riksbank is likely to leave the rate unchanged at 2.25%. However, there is a possibility of softer rhetoric, which may come as a surprise to the markets, given that the current market assessment suggests the possibility of a further step towards a rate hike.A Regional review of Norges Bank is also being released today. Investors will closely monitor GDP growth forecasts for the first and second quarters. According to preliminary data, economic activity is likely to remain in the range of 0.3–0.4% QoQ, which corresponds to the regulator's forecast made in December. However, special attention will be paid to capacity utilization indicators, as they play a key role in forecasting inflation and the subsequent trajectory of interest rates.Overview of economic events and market newsChina: sability of monetary policyThe People's Bank of China left key rates at the same levels: 1-year Loan Prime Rate — 3.10%, 5-year Loan — 3.60%. The decision was expected, but the market reaction remained restrained. The published economic data show a mixed picture of the state of the Chinese economy at the beginning of the year.The Fed's decision and the markets' reactionThe Fed, as expected, kept the rate unchanged. Jerome Powell presented a balanced statement, highlighting the existing risks, but at the same time making it clear that the regulator was in no hurry to change policy. As a result of this:• U.S. government bond yields have declined,• The dollar weakened,• Stock markets have strengthened.We still expect the first rate cut to take place in June, and the Fed may conduct three rounds of easing in total this year.Ukraine: negotiations with the United StatesThe telephone conversation between the Presidents of Ukraine and the United States was an important step in discussing long-term security guarantees. The main focus was on the prospects for a settlement of the conflict and a possible truce. However, at this stage, no real agreements on Ukraine's security have been reached yet.Stock market dynamicsGlobal markets ended the trading session with growth. In the US, indexes closed near daily highs as investors reacted positively to the outcome of the Fed meeting.• Dow Jones +0,9%• S&P 500 +1,1%• Nasdaq +1,4%• Russell 2000 +1,6%European markets have seen profit-taking after recent growth, especially noticeable in Germany, where the DAX has gained 17% since the beginning of the year.In Asia, trading takes place in different directions: the Japanese and Chinese markets are showing a decline, while the rest of the sites are mostly growing.European index futures are stable, while US futures indicate a possible continuation of growth, especially in the technology sector.Currency and debt marketsThe decisions of the Fed and the Bank of Japan led to a weakening of the dollar against the yen: USD/JPY fell below 149 after a decline in US bond yields reinforced the bearish trend against the dollar.EUR/USD remained near 1.09, while EUR/SEK rose above 11.00 again ahead of the Riksbank ...

This week, the focus will be on negotiations on Germany's fiscal package. The package is expected to be approved by the Bundestag on Tuesday and by the Bundesrat on Friday. It is expected that the vote will be successful, but there is a possibility of disagreement between individual representatives of the CSU/CDU, as well as possible opposition from the Free Voters of Bavaria party.In the United States, President Donald Trump announced upcoming talks with Russian President Putin on Tuesday/The purpose of the upcoming dialogue is to find ways to end the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, data from the United States on retail sales for February will be published. Investors are closely watching to see if the recent decline in consumer confidence will have an impact on retail sales.The Fed meeting will be held on Wednesday. The Central Bank is expected to keep the interest rate at the current level. Attention will be focused on Jerome Powell's comments on the prospects for easing policy, the possible end of the quantitative tightening program (QT), and economic growth forecasts. On Thursday, the Bank of England is likely to keep the rate at 4.50%, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may cut the rate by 25 bps to 0.25% amid low inflation expectations.Key economic eventsGermany: approval of the fiscal packageIn Germany, the new ruling coalition has reached an agreement with the Greens on easing the Schuldenbrem budget rule and setting up an infrastructure fund. In general, the agreement corresponds to the original draft. Key concessions to the Greens include allocating 100 billion euros out of a total of 500 billion euros for environmental projects. The mechanism for excluding military spending in excess of 1% of GDP from the budget rule has also been retained, and now it includes assistance to Ukraine. The regional authorities also agreed to ease the "black zero" policy.The Eurozone: inflation indicatorsThe final inflation data in Germany, France and Spain did not bring significant surprises. While France and Spain confirmed their preliminary estimates, German inflation was revised down to 2.6% YoY from 2.8% previously. This factor will affect the overall inflation rate of the eurozone, taking into account the weight of Germany in the calculation of the index (28%).USA: Consumer sentimentThe University of Michigan recorded a significant decrease in the consumer confidence index caused by increased inflation concerns. According to preliminary data for March, inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 4.9% from 4.3% in February. The assessment of the current situation decreased to 63.5 from 65.7 previously, and the expectations index dropped to 54.2 from 64.0. The further impact on consumption will become clear after the publication of retail sales data for February.Sweden: labor market and fiscal policyData for February showed employment growth of 0.2%, while the unemployment rate dropped to 8.9%. However, this decrease is due to a decrease in the share of the economically active population and an increase in the number of disappointed workers. The decrease in the number of temporary workers indicates a weak labor market in the next 6-9 months, with a possible recovery only by the end of the year. The ruling Moderati party has announced its intention to add 11.5 billion crowns to the spring budget package, part of which will go to defense. The final amount of defense spending is likely to be determined at the NATO summit in June.Dynamic of financial marketsStock marketsIn the absence of new threats of trade tariffs, stock markets showed growth on Friday. The Nasdaq rose 2.6%, the Russell 2000 rose 2.5%, the S&P 500 rose 2.1%, and the Dow rose 1.7%. Investors actively bought up previously affected sectors – technology, energy, banks and consumer goods. A similar trend was observed in Europe: the Stoxx 600 index gained 1.1%, while shares of banks, technology and industrial companies led the way. However, despite the growth, the overall dynamics remains weak: this is the fourth consecutive week of decline for the United States, and the second for Europe.Currency and debt marketsThe Swedish and Norwegian crowns, as well as the euro, strengthened against the US dollar and the Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market. The EUR/USD pair approached the level of 1.09, and EUR/SEK dropped to 11.00. The yield on US 10-year bonds remained at 4.30%, while German 10-year securities remained at about 2.90%.ConclusionsThis week, the key events will be the vote on the German fiscal package, negotiations between the United States and Russia, as well as decisions by central banks. The dynamics of stock markets remains unstable, while rising inflation expectations in the United States may affect the Fed's future policy. Investors continue to closely monitor macroeconomic indicators, assessing the risks to the global economy and financial ...

Lilium – do not be overly optimisticLilium is a German startup that is developing an air taxi-a fully battery-powered vehicle with a vertical take-off and landing function, whose speed will reach 281 km/h at an altitude of 3 km. The flight range is 250 km, so the company aims to completely change the current situation in the field of intercity communication. The carrier's shares appeared on the market on September 15 through a deal with SPAC. It was possible to collect only $584 million instead of the expected $830 million, as 65% of the holders of SPAC shares returned securities that began trading below $10. After Lilium distributes the debts and pays all the commissions, only about $400 million will be on the balance sheet. The first launch of the product is planned for 2024. It should be a seven-seat eVTOL jet, after which a 16-seat model should appear. The number of seats distinguishes Lilium from other companies that focus more on intra-city transportation using 2-4 local vehicles. In August, Lilium entered into a strategic partnership with the leading Brazilian air carrier Azul S. A, under which it undertakes to deliver 220 aircraft worth $1 billion. In addition to partnerships with major carriers, Lilium plans to develop its own network: management expects revenue of $1.7 billion in 2026 and $3.2 billion in 2027. The shares from vehicle sales and from network management should be approximately the same – 50% each. According to preliminary calculations, each aircraft should bring partners about $5 million a year, at a cost of $2.5 million. A ticket for a flight from Philadelphia to New York will cost about $170. Buying shares of a company that will start receiving revenue only in 2026 looks too risky. Especially against the background of the failure of many other players who promised to bring revolutionary ideas to life, like Nikola Motors.Asana shares are the most overbought securities on the marketSince the beginning of the month, Asana shares have risen by more than 55%. Recall that the company is developing solutions for managing team projects, and its founder is one of the first Facebook developers – Dustin Moskowitz. The main consumers of Asana services are programmers who work on a large task, as well as sellers and marketers. Of course, the transition to remote work had an extremely positive impact on financial results. It is important to understand that the Asana product is not unique at all. There are many competitors on the market from Salesforce to Airtable, Trello and SmartSheet. At the same time, the EV/S ratio exceeds 45x – these are simply unrealistically high values, even taking into account today's huge demand for “growing” stocks. It is incredibly risky to hold ASAN shares in an environment where there is more and more talk about the overheating of the market. In the second quarter of 2021, revenue increased by 72% YoY, to $89.5 million. Even more impressive is that the rate of revenue growth has been increasing since the third quarter of 2020. For example, in the previous quarter, revenue increased by 61% YoY. The number of ”paid" customers increased by 7 thousand, to 107 thousand, while the number of users spending more than $50 thousand a year doubled and reached 598. The ARR indicator is 118%, which means that existing customers started paying 18% more than a year ago. Among users with expenses above $50 thousand, this figure is even higher – ...

The US economy, being the largest in the world, attracts the attention of a huge number of investors from many countries. The attractiveness of the US market is due to a wide variety of trading platforms, trading instruments, a huge number of issuing companies that place their securities here, including global giants of various industries. And it's not just American companies. The US stock market can be considered international. Shares and depositary receipts of companies from different countries, including Russia, China, Germany, etc. are traded here. Thus, the US market is still a huge opportunity for geographical diversification of investments. And it is very important for investors to monitor the state of the "market climate" in order to choose the most attractive assets or rebalance their portfolio in time. Stock indexes act as indicators reflecting the state of the entire market or individual industries.This article will tell you more about the US stock indices:What is an index?US stock indexes, their types.Popular US stock indexes.How to invest in US stock indexes.What is an index?Stock indexes are calculated summary indicators consisting of a specific list of companies that reflect the state of a sector, a group of companies on the stock market or the entire market. When it is said that the market has fallen or the market has grown with the indication of a specific percentage, then the growth or fall is judged primarily by the dynamics of the market index. That is, the index serves as an indicator, or they also say a "barometer", which speaks about the situation in the market or in a particular industry. That is, depending on the object and purposes of monitoring, investors monitor either industry indices or broad market indices.Indexes are created and tracked by specialized providers or exchanges.Indices are formed from the securities of issuers selected according to a certain criterion. There are no universal criteria. Each market index has its own set - from market value (capitalization), industry affiliation, place of registration to the value of free-float and the number of periods in which the company worked with profit. The composition of the indexes is not constant. They are reviewed with a certain frequency, that is, the so-called rebalancing occurs. Companies that no longer meet the established criteria are excluded from the index. And they are replaced by new participants. Usually, for an issuer, inclusion in the index is a significant driver of the growth of market quotations. And usually the price increase does not occur at the time of the announcement of the news or the revision of the index structure that has already taken place. Investors track information about candidates long before the news is announced, and therefore, at the time of rebalancing, this event is already embedded in the share price of new index participants.The US stock market is one of the oldest. The first US stock index originated in the 1890s, when Charles Dow developed the Dow Jones Transportation Average index, based on data on eleven transportation organizations in the country. This index is still used today as the most recognized indicator of the American transport sector.Thus, all stock indexes that exist now meet their specific goals. For example, the DJ Transportation transport index reflects the state of the transport industry, the DJ Financials financial index is an indicator of the state of financial sector companies, etc. So, monitoring the industry index allows you to assess the state of the industry for which the index is compiled. The main indices that display the general state of the US economy include the S&P500, NASDAQ100, etc. And then we will tell you more about these and other indexes.Read more: Dow Theory: Six basic principles of Technical analysisUS stock indexes, their typesThere are about 765 stock indexes in the USA. These include all kinds of indices, starting with such well-known ones as the S&P500, Nasdaq100, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow Jones Composite Average (DJA), and ending with narrow-profile indices, where the PHLX Semiconductor semiconductor index can be cited as an example.All existing US stock market indices can be grouped as follows:Industry indexes. As an example, indexes (the quantitative content of the index is indicated in parentheses):DJ Health Care (DJUSHC) is an index showing the state of the healthcare sector (100 companies from the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries);DJ Transportation (DJT) is an index that tracks the state of the transport industry (20 transport and logistics companies);DJ Utility Average (DJU) – index of the state of the public utilities sector (15 utility companies);DJ Financials (DJF) is an index reflecting the state of the financial sector (257 financial companies).Broad market indices. These include the S&P500, S&P1500, DJ Composite, NYSE Composite, NYSE Amex Composite, Nasdaq Composite. They are used to assess the state of the entire market.TOP-capitalization indexes. This includes the S&P100, Dow Jones, Nasdaq100. These indexes allow us to assess the complex state of the most "expensive" companies grouped according to certain characteristics in various indexes.Indexes of companies with small and medium capitalization. This includes the Russell 2000, S&P 400, S&P 600. These indices reflect the assessment of the condition of companies with a relatively small market capitalization.Other indexes. This includes the market volatility index - the VIX index, the calculation of which is based on the volatility of the S& P500. The same group includes the VXO volatility index, calculated from the amplitude of fluctuations in the S&P100 index.Popular US stock indexesThe main American indices will be considered in more detail here.Dow Jones IndustrialThe Dow Jones Industrial is one of the oldest indices of the US market, was invented and began to be used in 1896. The index is considered one of the main indicators of the American economy. It helps investors and stakeholders in a simple way to assess the market dynamics of the industrial sector of the economy.Its structure is formed by the 30 largest industrial sectors, including such well-known Apple, Boeing, etc.When selecting this index, the impeccable business reputation of the company, stable growth and interest from investors are taken into account (determined by the indicator of trade turnover). At the same time, there are no clearly defined quantitative criteria — the decision is made by a special committee. To include an issuer in the DJIA index, its headquarters must be located in the USA, and the bulk of its income must be generated here. In addition, it should be a system-forming company, that is, its activities should make a tangible contribution to the country's economy. And to top it all off, the company's securities must be listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ trading platforms.Rebalancing is carried out every few months: if a company ceases to meet the criteria, then its shares leave the index. They are replaced by new issuers.Dow Jones Composite AverageThis US index appeared in 1934. It tracks the dynamics of share prices of 65 companies leading in their industries. This is an extended index based on three indexes:Dow Jones Industrial Average Yield Weighted (DJIYW) - DJIYW is an analogue for the main index, consisting of thirty companies on the DJIA list that have high profitability. Its member organizations must have a well-defined dividend payment schedule and excellent financial performance. The index is weighted according to their respective 12-month dividend yield.The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) is a transportation index that has existed for more than a hundred years and is leading the monitoring of companies providing logistics services throughout the United States and beyond.Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) – it consists of fifteen organizations from the field of utilities.The presence of the DJA index allows you to more broadly assess the state of three indices at once at the same time, which may be convenient for certain investors.Standard & Poor’s 500The S&P500 index is the most well-known and most widely used index of all. In its significance. Many agree that the S&P500 is one of the best indicators reflecting the situation of the US market. S&P500 is sometimes considered a "barometer of the economy", representing the results of the US market and being a reference point for many investors. Its calculation is based on the capitalization of issuers.The index is based on the 500 largest companies listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ trading platforms in terms of market value.You can see many famous companies in its composition: Apple, Microsoft, Walmart, Amazon, COCA-COLA, Mc'Donalds, Facebook, Alphabet and other legendary companies.When deciding whether to add to the index, the company is checked according to the criteria listed below:The organization must have a US registration.The market value (capitalization) is estimated at at least $6.1 billion.Free-float size ≥ 50%.The company should have been operating with positive operating profit for the last four quarters.Only ordinary shares can be included in the index, besides, they must have large trading volumes (more than 250,000 shares/month) and have a long market trading history.The structure of the S&P500 index is reviewed once every 3 months at the end of each calendar quarter. Companies that do not meet the criteria are removed from it.Read more: S&P 500 Stock Index - history, calculation and forecastingStandard & Poor’s 100The calculation of this index follows the same principle as for the 500 corporations of the S&P500 index. However, only companies with registered options on the Chicago Stock Exchange can be in the index.The S&P100 index is used in trading futures and options. As for the selection criteria, as a rule, the largest companies from the S&P 500 list with registered options are selected for inclusion in the index. The S&P100 index is formed in such a way as to maintain a balance between the ratio of companies from different sectors.This index is important for speculative traders who are interested in trading options of large companies.Nasdaq 100 IndexThe Nasdaq 100 index has been calculated since the mid-1980s. It is made up of hundreds of organizations with the largest capitalization (except for the financial sector), and takes into account not only US corporations. Most of the structure is companies.The index does not include companies from the financial, oil and gas sectors, as well as from the mining industry. The most prominent representatives of the index are: AMD, Adobe, Intel, Netflix, NVIDIA, Tesla, etc.The following criteria are applied to make a decision on adding a company 's shares to the Nasdaq 100 index:The Company should not carry out financial or insurance activities.The company's activities should be related to the field of high technology.More than 1.25 million shares outstanding at the time of listing, affiliated persons should not own more than 10% of the company.At the time of listing, the company's stock must have an offer price of at least $ 4, and three or more market makers must participate in the listing procedure.Rebalancing of the index takes place once a year, on the third Friday of December after the close of trading. The companies included in the top 100 according to the annual revision remain in the index. Those who occupy places from 101 to 125 places remain if they were in the top 100 according to the results of the previous year's review. Those not in the top 125 are excluded, regardless of the rank of the previous year.The Nasdaq 100 index is interesting to investors, as it is one of the key indicators of the American market.Read more: Index NASDAQ 100 - history, advantages and what it depends onNasdaq Composite IndexThe Nasdaq Composite is a composite index that is weighted by capitalization. It includes over 3,000 securities of high-tech companies, as well as companies with rapid growth from various industries – biotechnology, space, aircraft, etc., traded on the NASDAQ exchange. This index contains about one hundred of the largest companies with a high market value. The index is maintained and calculated by the Nasdaq exchange, unlike other indices, it is expressed in dollar terms, not in points.To be included in the index of an organization, you need to meet the following criteria:Listing on the Nasdaq Exchange trading platform.Only ordinary shares of the company can be included in the index. No convertible bonds, preferred securities, derivatives and real-time can be included.The company should not engage in insurance activities.The index can include a variety of companies, ranging from world-famous large corporations to little-known small companies. The most famous participants of the index are: Apple, Autodesk, Cisco, NVIDIA, Google, eBay, etc.Various investors are interested in tracking the index, and first of all those who want to invest in the technology sector.Russell 2000The Russell 2000 index is one of America's investment indices, which, like most indices, is weighted by capitalization. Originated in the mid-80s of the last century, it allows you to track the dynamics of 2000 companies with small capitalization. The most expensive companies have the greatest weight, as well as the greatest influence in it.This index allows you to assess the state of small businesses in the United States. The peak of its popularity was in the 90s, which was caused by strong movements in the share prices of its member companies.The index contains companies that, as a rule, do not have a globally recognizable brand.The Russell 2000 structure includes the following economic sectors: finance, healthcare, technology, cyclical and consumer goods, industry, non-cyclical consumer goods, basic materials, utilities and energy. At the end of 2020, there were five industries that made a tangible impact on the index structure.This index is of interest to those investors whose investment objects are small-cap companies.It can be concluded that index monitoring has the following objectives:Obtaining information about the aggregate dynamics of quotations of companies from the "basket" of the index.Obtaining information and assessing the current market situation.Long-term study of the investment climate in a particular group of companies, industry or country.Obtaining aggregated information about the actions of market participants.Read more: Exchange Trade Funds (ETF)How to invest in US stock indexesThere are two main ways in which you can invest in a stock index: the purchase of futures and the purchase of ETFs. US index futures are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Before making a decision to purchase futures, it should be remembered that futures are high-risk financial instruments, for their acquisition it is necessary to have either the status of a qualified investor, or an open account with a foreign broker, which is not always possible.A more convenient way is to purchase a real-time stock index. Among the advantages are the following:The ability to invest in all stocks included in the index.The relatively low purchase price of the ETF.The need for a relatively small amount and a low exchange commission when purchasing one of the ETFs on the index, than when independently repeating the index by buying each index share. In other words, buying in real time allows you to achieve broad diversification of investments with small amounts of capital.Currently, there are various data on a large number of popular stock indexes. For example, the S&P500 index has the following data:SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is the most popular ETF with a commission of 0.09%.iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV) ETF - this ETF ranks second in terms of trading turnover, the commission is 0.04%.There is also data for other indexes:The Invesco QQQ (QQQ) ETF is an ETF on the Nasdaq 100.The Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Stock Index ETF tracking Stocks (ONEQ) is an ETF on the Nasdaq Composite.SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF - ETF for the Dow Jones Industrial Index.The iShares S&P 100 ETF (OEF) is an ETF on the S&P 100.The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is a Russell 2000 ETF.There is also a wide range of real-time industry indexes.Healthcare - SPDR Fund for the Healthcare Sector (XLV), Vanguard Healthcare ETF (VHT), iShares ETF for US Healthcare (IYH).Biotechnologies - iShares Nasdaq Biotechnological ETF (IBB-, SPDR S&P Biotechnological ETF (XBI), First Trust Amex Biotechnologies Index (FBT).Energy - ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO), US Brent Oil Fund (BNO), US 12-month Natural Gas Fund (UNL).Finance – Vanguard Financial ETF (VFH), iShares USA Financial ETF (IYG), Invesco KBW Financial ETF with High Dividend Yield (KBWD).Transport – iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT), SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (XTN). Average Transportation ETF (IYT).The main disadvantage of real-time investing is that, in addition to companies with good financial performance and growth prospects, it may also include companies with poor performance or simply unprofitable.However, there are options for "smart investing" in the index when you choose which companies to invest in. This approach implies spot investments and exclusion of ballast from the portfolio in the form of unprofitable companies that do not have fundamental sources of growth. This approach, firstly, reduces the risks of capital loss, and secondly, increases the efficiency of investment.Read more: Stock market indices: what are they and why do investors need them?ConclusionStock indexes are one of the important tools available to investors. The main goal that is achieved with the help of this tool is to monitor the situation or, as investors also say, the temperature, the entire stock market or industries of interest. The family of American market indices occupies a special place in the world hierarchy due to its size and, of course, its "authority". Observing the dynamics of changes in certain indices allows you to make a judgment about the current state of both the entire US economy and its individual sectors, and helps in making an investment decision.The presence of ETFs for stock market indices allows its participants to invest in a financial instrument that allows them to diversify their investments at a lower cost than when repeating the index independently. However, it must be remembered that buying futures or investing in an ETF of a separate index does not allow you to choose only the best representatives of the index, but forces you to purchase the entire set of shares of the companies that make up it, both "good" and ...

Indices for the investorNews reports often inform us about the growth and fall of stock market indices. Obviously, this is important, since it gets into prime-time news. However, what should this mean to the ordinary man in the street?Reference books tell us that "An index is a derived quantity ..." and behind the jumble of words they do not always give us an idea of the essence. School memories about "dividing something into something" generally set the right vector for reflection, but here it is critically important to understand what to divide into what and why. So, let's figure it out.Read more: Index NASDAQ 100 - history, advantages and what it depends onWhat is a stock market index in the financial world?Let's start from the beginning and consider the very first index that appeared in the world: this is the soaring Dow Jones Index. Its first version appeared back in 1884, and this index still exists today. The emergence of such a tool was associated with the need to assess the dynamics of industrial development in the United States. It was necessary to find some indicator that would help to assess whether production is growing or falling. How did you solve this problem?It's very simple: we took 12 of the largest industrial companies in the United States and calculated the average stock price for all. Then they did the same after some time. And again. And now several control points have already appeared and a graph has been built out of them, from which the trend was visible: in general, the prices of shares of the largest companies are growing or not. Since the growth of the share price is an indicator of investors' confidence in the industry, their desire to invest in it (and this is an opportunity for the industry itself to develop due to the inflow of investments), these calculations have become the main measure of industrial development. Therefore, the growth of the index means the development of the entire industrial sector, and the fall, respectively, indicates a crisis. The evaluation method proved to be viable, received the name of the authors-developers, and since 1896 the Dow Jones Index has been officially published.A lot has changed since then, including in the Dow Jones Index itself. There are Indices for different industries, for the economies of entire countries. And the indices themselves are now a little less straightforward - all sorts of correction factors are applied, dividends and a number of other factors are taken into account. However, the following principle remained unchanged: the index shows the average temperature of the development of an industry or a country.An interesting fact: from the very first version of the Dow Jones Index to the present day, General Electric was part of it.Read more: Nikkei 225 Index - history, calculation and the featuresThe Dow Jones index today is an indicator of the health of the US economy. It is calculated based on the value of the shares of the 30 largest companies. Another important index for assessing the US economy is the S&P 500, it is called the barometer of the American economy. It is calculated for 500 American companies that have the highest market price (capitalization).For Germany, the same index is DAX, for Japan - Nikkei 225. There are Indices for industries - for example, for energy, telecommunications, metals - they, in turn, show in the same way whether the industry is developing, stagnating or even in decline.Indices are the investor's loyal friendsFirstly, from the point of view of investments in the index itself: today there are tools in the financial system that allow you to earn on the growth of indices. And the indices are unique in this quality - they are always growing in the historical perspective. This is logical: civilization is developing, humanity is getting more and more benefits, and the index only reflects this process.And secondly, Indices help us evaluate the industry or economy of the country in which we want to invest in a security. The dynamics of the development of the industry or economy reflected in the index will help you assess the potential of a particular security: does it have the possibility of growth relative to the "average temperature" or is it worth waiting for a decline in quotations rather.Summing up, we note the main thing: indices are indicators of the development of industries and entire economies. Both governments and ordinary investors are guided by them. Therefore, when making a trading decision to purchase a particular security, it makes sense to look at the indices in order to assess the overall economic situation and understand the potential of the stock.Read more: S&P500 ...

Making a profit from financial instruments in the short, medium or long term is the main goal of any investor. Beginners prefer to use stocks and bonds, and we are usually talking about the direct purchase/sale of assets.But experienced traders often work with derivatives, the type of which is chosen based on the goals and skills of the investor. With the right approach, they allow you to make good money, with an inept one, serious monetary losses are likely.What are derivatives?Types of derivativesFuturesForwardOptionSwapFunctions of derivativesHow and where to trade derivativesChoosing a broker and opening a trading accountChoosing a derivativeAnalysis of the market situationPurchase of a contractWhat are derivatives?A derivative (derivative financial instruments) is a type of contractual contract that obliges the transaction partners to perform certain actions with the underlying asset in the future. Most often, this is the delivery of goods to a specific date at a given price on terms that do not depend on price fluctuations in the markets.The conditions prescribed in the derivatives contracts are called the specification. Holders have the right to sell the acquired derivatives, and their issuers are not always the owners of the underlying assets.Read more: Issuer of securities: definition, types and featuresDerivatives do not exist by themselves. These are derivative financial instruments that are inextricably linked to the value of the underlying assets, and there may be more than one of them.At the same time, the following can act as a base:Securities (Shares, ADRs, GDRs, etc.);Currencies (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc);Stock indexes (S&P500, Dow, NASDAQ, FTSE100, etc.);Commodities (metals, energy carriers, agricultural products, etc.);Macroeconomic and statistical indicators (key refinancing rate, inflation, weather, etc.).The derivatives futures market operates on the same principles as the securities and commodity exchanges. Pricing in this industry follows similar principles. At the same time, the total number of contracts presented on the market and the number of underlying assets are often not related in any way.Derivatives are a rapidly developing sector of today's financial system. According to the most conservative estimates, the volume of this market is $845 trillion. (the volume of world GDP is $86.6 trillion). A number of experts claim that the volume of the derivatives market reaches $2 quadrn.The first analogues of modern derivatives originated among Babylonian merchants. In Japan in the 17th century, rice coupons became widespread, and in the UK and Holland — options for flower bulbs. The first modern derivatives were launched on the London Stock Exchange in the 1860s. And they were actively distributed in the 20s of the XX century.Types of derivativesAll derivatives (derivative financial instruments) are divided into those that are traded freely (contracts of a standardized type on exchange platforms), and contractual (agreements in the OTC sector). Let's look at the most popular types of them.Read more: What is OTC and what are its featuresFuturesFutures contracts imply delivery on a specific date of the selected underlying asset at a given price. In fact, this is a contract of sale with deferred execution. There are futures:Settlement - without the physical movement of the goods or the change of the owner of the securities, the monetary settlement takes place on the day of the expiration date;Delivery - the goods are shipped directly within the specified time.Example: by buying oil futures, you can count on the delivery of the number of barrels specified in the specification by the deadline specified in the contract. But when buying index futures, only monetary settlement is possible, there is no physical commodity.Read more: What are futures: types, features, advantages and risksForwardForward contracts are concluded in the over-the-counter sector. They imply the delivery of the underlying asset at a given price by a specific date. Unlike standardized futures, they allow you to set additional conditions (quality, packaging, etc.), that is, there is still an opportunity for business maneuvers.Example: a large industrial production requires rolled metal after 5 months. According to analysts' forecasts, rental prices are expected to rise in the near future. At the moment, there are no free funds, as well as the desire to bear increased storage costs. The buyer and the supplier conclude a contract at the current price with the supply of products in the future with the payment of warranty security.Read more: Bulls and bears, as well as other animals on the stock exchangeAn example of a forward at the household level is drawing up a contract for the purchase and sale of an apartment in a house under construction or a car in a car dealership (if it is not in stock).OptionThe purchase of an option gives the right to buy or sell an asset in a given time period at a specified price. The first option is called call, the second-put. It is not necessary to execute the contract if the conditions are unfavorable for the owner (the projected price of the asset has gone in the wrong direction). It is acceptable to simply fix a loss in the amount of the option value.Example: on the stock exchange, a company's share is traded at a price of 50 dollars. The trader, having analyzed the market situation, revealed the probability of growth up to 65 dollars. He acquires a call option with the right to purchase a security at 50 dollars. with a guaranteed security of 10% (5 dollars.). When the desired price is reached within the specified period, the trader executes the option. And sells a share on the stock market already at the market price. If the forecast is not justified, it is permissible to resell the option cheaper or not to execute it, fixing a loss of 5 dollars.SwapA complex version of a futures contract, works on the principle of "2 in 1". A transaction is concluded for the purchase or sale of an asset with the simultaneous opening of a counter-directional transaction with the same asset on similar terms, but after a certain period. The main goals of using swaps are to increase the number of assets and reduce risks (hedging). The most common types of swaps are currency, commodity, credit, interest, stocks and precious metals.Read more: Swaps in the financial market. What are they and what are they given to the traderIn addition to these types of derivatives, there are other, less popular types — warrants, PCI, FRA, depositary receipts. There are also derivatives for derivatives, but investors are wary of such an instrument.Functions of derivativesDerivatives are acquired not only in order to become the owner of the underlying asset. Their functions are more diverse:Risk hedging (protection against sharp price and exchange rate fluctuations);Price arbitrage (conclusion of multidirectional transactions in several markets in order to make a profit);Tax optimization, for example, when using a stock swap, you will not have to pay a tax related to capital gains;Speculation on the price fluctuations of an asset;Reducing transaction costs;Expansion of earning opportunities through increased leverage (X100).Read more: Leverage on the stock marketHow and where to trade derivativesHow to trade derivatives:Choosing a broker.Opening a trading account and depositing funds.Choosing the type of derivative.Market analysis.Purchase of a contract.Working with futures contracts and options is similar. But there is one serious difference. Futures obliges to fulfill the conditions regardless of how the market situation develops for the owner. The option leaves the right to choose.As for the places where you can trade derivatives, ordinary investors are mainly available on exchanges where less than 20% of this type of assets are traded. Options and futures contracts are presented in the futures sections of these platforms.There are 64 exchanges working with futures in the world. One of the largest is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME (commodities and cryptocurrency).Among the cryptocurrency exchanges working with futures contracts, OKEx, BitMEX, Binance Futures, ByBit, Huobi and Deribit deserve attention (they are in the TOP 10).Read more: Overview of the Huobi Global ExchangeThe process of trading derivatives should be considered in more detail.Choosing a broker and opening a trading accountThe choice of a broker should be given maximum attention. In addition to having a direct access to the exchange platforms of interest, you should check the license. The list of licensed brokers is presented on the official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.It is useful to get acquainted with the reliability ratings on specialized Internet resources and reviews of real customers. After registering on the broker's website, creating a personal account, verifying your identity and installing a trading terminal (QUICK, MT4, MT5 or the broker's own developments), you need to top up your trading account.In some cases, access to the demo version (if available) is provided without making a deposit.Read more: Stock market Broker: how to choose it and how to work with itChoosing a derivativeOne of the main advantages of derivatives (namely futures) is a wide range of assets. We choose the market category from the following options: indices, commodities (energy, agricultural products, etc.), interest rates (LIBOR, RUONIA, etc.), currency or securities.After that, we select the type of trading instrument (a specific type of metal, a brand of oil, etc.). The choice should be made taking into account the previous trading experience. If a trader has been working with stocks for a long time, then futures and stock swaps are among the preferred instruments.Analysis of the market situationBefore making a final purchase decision, you should analyze the market situation using fundamental and technical analysis. It is necessary to take into account everything that may affect the value of the underlying asset in the future.It is not superfluous to study the history of quotes and track the news background.Read more: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME): history, structure, advantages and featuresPurchase of a contractAt the final stage, we determine the type of contract and the nuances of the specification. For example, there are 2 futures options available for gold — a standard one for 100 ounces and an e-mini (10 ounces). Having selected the necessary asset, we make a purchase request and confirm the transaction.At first glance, trading in derivatives (derivative financial instruments) seems simple and understandable.In reality, you need a lot of trading experience, a knowledge base, an understanding of the market situation, skills in analysis, risk management and the use of leverage.In the absence of proper training, it is advisable to undergo training and try out various strategies in the demo version. For beginners who do not have system knowledge, it is advisable to start with the most liquid and volatile instruments — oil futures, indices or blue-chip stocks.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their ...

From time to time, there are sharp ups and downs of quotations on the stock exchanges. When a panic begins, the rate of decline can go through the roof. To prevent trading from turning into chaos, each exchange has its own mechanismIn extreme cases, stock exchanges close trading in the middle of the day or even immediately after opening. How and why do trading platforms do this?Suspensions of trading give investors the opportunity to understand what is happening in the market, learn information and make decisions based on market conditions, said Stacy Cunningham, president of the New York Stock Exchange, in an interview with CNBC.How does the NYSE stop trading?According to the rules of the New York Stock Exchange, if the S&P 500 index falls by 7% from the closing price of the previous day (level 1), trading will be stopped for 15 minutes. If the decline continues after this break and the index falls by 13% (level 2) before 15: 25 New York time, the exchange will suspend trading again for 15 minutes. After 15: 25, a 20% drop is allowed (level 3). Exceeding this threshold leads to a trading stop until the end of the day.On March 9, 2020, after the key US indices fell by 7%, an automatic "fuse" was triggered immediately after the start of trading, and trading was stopped for 15 minutes. This helped to stop the further decline in quotations. When trading resumed, the main stock indexes managed to break away from their lows and stay above them.These rules were developed after an instant technical collapse on the New York Stock Exchange in May 2010 (Flash Crash). The exchange adopted the latest version of the rules in February 2013.The days when trading stopped. 7 most unexpected pauses on the stock exchangesIf trading in the company's shares is suspended, it does not mean that the shares have become useless or their value has fallen to zero. In such cases, the exchange temporarily blocks trading until it determines what happened and whether there is a threat to bona fide investors. Trading may be suspended for individual shares or for all securities registered on the exchange.Crisis-97: minus 7% in five hoursOn October 27, 1997, the Dow Jones index fell by 7.18% (554 points) in five hours. Emergency sales on the US stock market began immediately after the collapse of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange indices by 6% due to the financial crisis in Asia.After the index fell by 4.54%, the exchange suspended trading for the first time for half an hour to calm the panic among the participants. It didn't help. After the resumption of trading, the decline continued and exceeded 7%. This time, the exchange stopped trading completely: traders were sent home before the end of the day. This decline was the largest intraday drop for the US market in ten years."Enron": from princes in the mudIn the nineties and the beginning of the two thousandth, the Enron energy company was a giant of American business. It ranked seventh in the United States in terms of capitalization. At the maximum, Enron shares were worth $90.75 apiece.In 2001, the company was accused of falsifying data in reporting. After that, the quotes began to fall. On December 2, 2001, Enron declared bankruptcy — and the securities collapsed to $0.26.The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) soon stopped trading in these shares. As a reason for the suspension, the regulator pointed to the share price below $1 per share, which violates NYSE standards.Read more: What is the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)When the exchange turned off the lightsIn March 2009, the Sydney Stock Exchange stopped trading after a serious power outage. About 70 thousand houses and administrative buildings, including the stock exchange building, were left without electricity. Due to the lack of electricity, traffic lights were turned off and many kilometers of traffic jams were formed. Some residents were stuck in elevators for a long time.It is interesting that two days before the power outage, residents of the city took a voluntary part in the "Earth Hour — 2009" campaign. They turned off the lights in their own apartments for an hour. The campaign was held by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) to draw attention to climate change in the world.Blind tradingIn August 2013, the NASDAQ stock exchange, specializing in securities of high-tech companies, suspended trading in shares for three hours. This was due to a technical failure: the exchange stopped receiving applications from trading participants and displaying data on changes in quotations. Trading resumed only 35 minutes before closing time.On this day, the share price of the American company NASDAQ OMX Group, which owns the NASDAQ exchange and eight other European exchanges in the Baltic region, fell by 3.4%. The three-hour suspension of trading due to technical problems was the longest in the history of this exchange.Read more: About NASDAQ Stock ExchangeNon-flying planes, non-purchased sharesIn July 2015, the New York Stock Exchange, where shares of the world's largest corporations are traded, stopped trading in all registered securities for three hours. This was due to a technical failure, and the exchange canceled outstanding applications for securities transactions.The New York Stock Exchange resumed work by the end of the day. On the same day, there was a technical failure in the system of one of the largest American air carriers, United Airlines. The airline canceled all flights.An hour and a half of silenceIn September 2015, the Moscow Exchange suspended operations on the stock, currency, money and futures markets. The exchange's website also stopped working. This was due to malfunctions in the network equipment of the Moscow Exchange in the M1 data center.The exchange's clients could not connect to the systems and place orders in the usual mode. The exchange was restored in an hour and a half.Read more: What are futures: types, features, advantages and risksThe shortest trades in historyIn 2016, one of the trading sessions on the Chinese stock market lasted less than 30 minutes and became the shortest in the history of the Chinese market. The stock market fell after the decision of the People's Bank of China to sharply lower the yuan against the dollar.The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index Shanghai Composite Index lost 7%, falling to 3116 points, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange index Shenzhen Component fell by 8.35%, to 10,746 points. The CSI 300 composite index of blue chips lost 7.2%. In accordance with the rules in force at that time, due to such a decline in the CSI 300 index, trading on Chinese stock exchanges was suspended until the end of the trading day.Read more: "Blue chips" of the US ...