FTSE 100 Trading forecasts and signals

Key events of the dayToday, the markets' attention is focused on the preliminary business activity indices (PMI) for April in the eurozone, the United States and the United Kingdom. These data will be the first indicator of the impact of uncertainty related to trade tariffs. In the eurozone, the manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 48.2 from the previous level of 48.6, due to a drop in new orders from the United States. At the same time, the index in the service sector is likely to remain stable at around 51.0. Despite the fact that the PMI is usually less sensitive to sentiment, the risks of a negative effect still remain.In the United States, a similar dynamic is expected: a decline in industrial activity against the backdrop of gloomy data from the Philadelphia Fed index published last week. The service sector is expected to hold its position unless increased uncertainty begins to put pressure on consumption. However, March retail sales showed resilience, which reduces risks.Economic developments in AsiaIn Japan, the April PMIs showed mixed results. The manufacturing index continued to decline for the tenth month in a row, dropping to 48.5, partly due to concerns about U.S. tariffs. The service sector, on the contrary, grew to 52.2, driven by increased customer demand and the largest increase in sales over the past three months. Pressure on prices has increased: companies are recording the fastest cost growth in two years, leading to higher product prices. The composite index returned to the expansion zone, rising to 51.1 from 48.9 in March.Economic developments in the USAThe index of manufacturing activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond deteriorated in April to -13 from -4 in March. The shipment component decreased to -17, which, together with data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, signals a clear deterioration in the industrial situation. The effect of pre-accumulation of orders in the first quarter is being replaced by a slowdown due to increasing uncertainty.In the political arena, President Trump has eased pressure on the Fed, saying there are no plans to fire Jerome Powell. This led to a decrease in the probability of his resignation in the markets from 21% to 13%, supporting a positive mood among investors, strengthening the dollar and sending gold into a downward correction. Prior to Trump's statement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant also described the trade war with China as "unsustainable," which gave an additional boost to asset growth. At the same time, Trump expressed cautious optimism about the deal with China, noting that tariffs would eventually be "significantly lower" but not reduced to zero.Events in EuropeIn the eurozone, the consumer confidence index dropped to -16.7 in April, which is the lowest level since November 2023. The decline is mainly due to the effects of the trade war and falling stock markets. So far, this deterioration has not been reflected in real data — retail sales in the United States in March, as well as transaction data in Denmark, remain strong. Thus, the decrease in confidence so far looks more like an emotional reaction to external factors.According to the quarterly survey of the European Central Bank among professional forecasters, inflation expectations have slightly increased, and economic growth forecasts have been slightly revised downwards. However, the changes turned out to be insignificant, indicating moderate expectations of further consequences of the trade war. The next round of forecasts may be less optimistic due to the escalation of tariff conflicts between the United States and China in April.International trade and macroeconomicsTrade disputes remain in the spotlight: The International Monetary Fund has revised down its global economic growth forecast for 2025, noting particularly significant declines for the United States and China. The main threats are the further escalation of trade wars and the tightening of financial conditions.The situation in SwedenAn unexpected improvement was recorded in the Swedish labor market: the unemployment rate fell to 8.1% in March from 8.9% in February. At the same time, employment growth was higher than expected, and the increase in the workforce was in line with forecasts. However, risks of deterioration remain in the event of escalating tariff conflicts and turbulence in the stock markets.Geopolitical newsProgress has been made in relations between Russia and Ukraine. According to media reports, Russia offered to stop the offensive on the current front lines, and Ukraine expressed its readiness for negotiations after the establishment of a ceasefire.The raw materials marketOil prices have strengthened amid the introduction of new US sanctions against Iranian oil exports, as well as due to improved market sentiment following the softening of US rhetoric towards China. A barrel of Brent costs about $68 in the morning.Stock marketsGlobal stock markets showed solid growth, offsetting the drop at the beginning of the week. Cyclical stocks outpaced defensive sectors in growth. Bond yields declined, and the dollar strengthened. Major US indexes closed in positive territory: Dow +2.7%, S&P 500 +2.5%, Nasdaq +2.7% and Russell 2000 +2.7%. The positive mood remains for the morning in Asia, as well as on European and American futures.Debt market and foreign exchange marketThe weakening of Trump's rhetoric towards the Fed chairman and trade negotiations with China contributed to the relief in financial markets. Today's PMI releases will be an important indicator of the current state of the global economy and will play a key role in further decisions by central ...

Escalation of the tariff war: the US and China continue their confrontationFinancial markets are in a state of heightened anxiety as investors closely monitor further actions by US President Donald Trump as part of the ongoing tariff confrontation. At the moment, most countries face a 10% duty on a wide range of exported goods, as well as a 25% tariff on automobiles, steel, aluminum, and products from Canada and Mexico. China, by contrast, is in the worst position, facing a record 145% interest rate.The markets have already partially priced in further escalation, but the current measures from the United States represent an actual tightening of fiscal policy, which increases the likelihood of a recession. On the other hand, China is expected to take stimulating steps, possibly lowering the benchmark interest rate after Easter. At the same time, a devaluation of the yuan is unlikely, since Beijing prefers to maintain the stability of the exchange rate.Eurozone: inflation is losing priority, the focus is on slowing growthOn Wednesday, the publication of the final data on inflation in the eurozone for March is expected. The consensus forecast assumes confirmation of the preliminary values, and the market is likely not to react to the release. Investors' attention has already shifted from the inflationary agenda to economic growth prospects and trade risks.On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The accompanying statement is likely to repeat the phrase that monetary policy is becoming "less restrictive." The head of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, is likely to focus on the deterioration of the macroeconomic outlook, but there will be no direct hints on the next steps on rates.Current events: signals from the USA and AsiaThe US president has announced new tariffs on semiconductors in the coming week. In parallel, an investigation has been launched into national security issues in the semiconductor sector. At the same time, Trump stated the need for "flexibility" in trade issues. On the other hand, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping began his first foreign trip this year, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. The visit underscores Beijing's desire to strengthen regional ties and forge a multipolar order.Over the weekend, the United States excluded a number of high—tech goods from retaliatory tariffs - smartphones, chip manufacturing equipment and some computers. This provided short-term relief for the American IT sector. However, as noted by Commerce Secretary Howard Latnick, these goods may still be subject to future tariffs on semiconductors expected before May.Macroeconomic data: alarming signals from the United StatesA preliminary survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan for April revealed a sharp deterioration in indicators. The index fell to 50.8 from 57.0 in March, while expectations and current estimates also declined more than expected. At the same time, inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 6.7%, which increases concerns about lost price control.Producer prices in March, on the contrary, showed a decrease — the PPI index dropped to 2.7% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than expected. This indicates that manufacturers did not have time to shift potential tariff costs to the final price in anticipation of new duties.Regional inflation: Swedish stabilityIn Sweden, the final March inflation data coincided with estimates: CPI at 0.5% YoY, CPIF at 2.3% YoY. Food inflation accelerated, while other components, including clothing, transportation, and housing, showed declines. Thus, inflation remains below the Riksbank's target level for the eighth month in a row, which supports the regulator's cautious position.Stock markets: optimism with caveatsUS stock markets ended Friday on a positive note — the S&P 500 index gained 1.8%, playing off the news about the exclusion of IT products from tariffs. Apple shares have become the engine of growth. European markets lagged behind in dynamics, but futures indicate a possible increase at the opening. It is worth noting that since the beginning of the year, European stocks have been outperforming American stocks in terms of profitability.Bond and currency markets: dollar under pressure, U.S. yields risingThe EUR/USD pair briefly dropped below 1.13 on Friday, as the weakening of tariff threats supported the dollar. However, overall confidence in American assets remains in question. The yield gap between the US and Europe has become noticeably wider: the yield on 10-year US bonds rose by 50 bps to 4.5%, while German securities remained virtually unchanged (2.55%). Scandinavian currencies remain vulnerable amid global capital flows and high uncertainty.ResultsMarkets continue to balance between the hope of stabilizing trade relations and the reality of increased global risks. Further steps by the United States on tariffs, China's reaction, and central bank policies will determine market movements in the coming ...

USA: inflation and government bonds in the spotlightThe focus of the American market today is the publication of the March consumer price index (CPI). Inflation is expected to slow down: according to the consensus forecast, the overall indicator will decrease from 2.8% to 2.5% in annual terms, and the core CPI index from 3.1% to 3.0%. Despite the increase in tariffs, which reinforces inflation expectations for the medium term, the Federal Reserve's attention is focused on internal, "organic" price pressures. An additional indicator of current investor sentiment will be the auction for the placement of 30-year US Treasury bonds.Sweden: signs of economic recoveryToday, at 08:00 Central European time, data on GDP, production and consumption for February will be published. Given that there has already been an increase in retail sales and the total number of hours worked, there is a possibility of positive dynamics in other segments of the economy. In addition, a speech by a representative of the Riksbank of the Seimas on monetary policy issues will be held at 09:00.Norway: inflation remains at the center of controversyThe inflation data for March will be key for the Norwegian market. In February, consumer prices unexpectedly jumped, helped by rising prices for groceries, air travel, and catering services. The main question now is whether this is a sustainable trend or a temporary effect. We tend to believe that most of the growth will be irreversible, but at the same time, the monthly inflation rate will begin to slow down. The forecast for the core CPI is 3.3% in annual terms, which, by historical standards, is rather in the lower range, especially after the strong February report.Denmark: inflation and unemploymentThe March consumer price index in Denmark is expected to be published today. According to forecasts, inflation will slow down from 2.0% to 1.7%, which will be facilitated by lower prices for electricity and fuel. There will also be data on the unemployment rate, which may affect short-term expectations for the krona. Additional context can be found in the "Reading the Markets Denmark" analysis from April 9th.China: inflation is stabilizingConsumer inflation in China in March was slightly below expectations, at -0.1% year-on-year and -0.4% month-on-month. Despite this, the indicator improved significantly compared to February (-0.7% YoY), which indicates the first signs of the effectiveness of the incentive measures taken by the authorities.Energy market: correction after sharp growthOil prices fell by about 1% after Donald Trump's announcement about tightening tariff policy towards China. Despite this, the main benchmark oil grades ended the previous session with an increase of 4%, recovering some of the sharp drop at the beginning of the day. Brent futures are currently trading in the range of 64-65 dollars per barrel.Global Trade: a sharp turnaround by the United StatesThe day before, the US administration announced a 90-day suspension of new duties on most countries in order to create conditions for negotiations. However, tariffs on Chinese goods were increased to 125%. Notably, this decision does not apply to Canada and Mexico. In response, China announced a 50% increase in duties on American goods, bringing the total tariff to 84%. Despite the escalation, the market has begun to reconsider the probability of a recession in the United States — now it is estimated at less than 50% compared to almost 70% previously.USA: Fed is concerned about inflation amid economic slowdownThe minutes of the FOMC meeting showed that the regulator is concerned about rising inflation with a slowdown in business activity and the labor market. The participants noted the difficulty of choosing between supporting economic growth and the need to curb price pressures. Later, Fed spokesman Thomas Barkin emphasized the importance of consumer spending as one of the sustainable elements of the economy at the current stage.The Eurozone: a response to US tariffsThe EU Council voted to impose duties of up to 25% on American goods worth a total of 21 billion euros, including soybeans and motorcycles. This was a response to the US tariffs on steel and aluminum. The Commission hopes to conclude a deal with the United States on the mutual zeroing of duties and an increase in purchases of American energy, but the likelihood of this remains uncertain.Stock markets: violent rebound after panicAfter a series of sales, the US market showed impressive growth: the S&P 500 index jumped by 10%, showing the best result since October 2008. Particularly strong growth was recorded in the technology sector: shares of Tesla, Apple and Nvidia increased by 20%. There is also a positive trend in Asian markets: Nikkei gained 8%, Kospi — 6%, and Chinese indices remain in the black by 2%. European futures are also signaling an opening with an increase of about 7%.Currencies and bonds: the market is adapting to new conditionsThe US decision to suspend tariffs has caused a surge of optimism: yields on short-term US bonds have increased, and the 2s10s curve has significantly tightened. The Fed's rate forecast for the end of the year has been revised up by 20 basis points. The dollar index remained stable, while the euro weakened against the dollar. Emerging market currencies gained support, while defensive assets such as the franc and the yen suffered ...

Eurozone: indicators of investor confidence and retail salesIn April, investors in the eurozone focused on the Sentix investor confidence index and retail sales data for February. The Sentix index rose significantly in March, helped by a large-scale stimulus package in Germany. However, after the introduction of new tariffs by US President Donald Trump, investor sentiment may worsen, although this may not be fully reflected in the current data. Retail sales have been showing a decline in recent months, which corresponds to a drop in consumer confidence after a strong recovery in the second half of last year. Despite favorable conditions for increased consumption, such as a stable labor market, rising real wages and low interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty is likely to restrain consumer sentiment.Sweden: public debt and inflationIn Sweden, the Office of Public Debt has published data on the state of central government debt for February. In February, the surplus amounted to SEK 74.0 billion, exceeding the projected SEK 60.9 billion, due to higher tax revenues. citeturn0search10 In March, preliminary data on inflation was below expectations: the CPIF index was 2.3% yoy, and CPIF excluding energy and 3.0%. citeturn0search7 This decrease in inflation may ease the pressure on the Riksbank to further tighten monetary policy.USA: tariff policy and market reactionPresident Trump has confirmed his intention to impose extensive tariffs on imports, despite a significant drop in stock markets and fears of a recession. He described these measures as a necessary "medicine" to correct economic imbalances. In response, China announced the imposition of 34% tariffs on all American goods from April 10 and restrictions on exports of rare earths. citeturn0search8 These events have increased concerns about the global trade war and its potential impact on the global economy.Financial markets: reaction to macroeconomic eventsStock markets around the world have experienced sharp declines amid escalating trade disputes. Futures for the S&P 500 fell by more than 3%, and Asian markets showed the most significant decline since 2008. citeturn0news77 Investors expect the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in response to growing recession fears. At the same time, oil prices continue to decline, reflecting concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth.In general, the current macroeconomic situation is characterized by increased volatility and uncertainty due to the escalation of trade conflicts and their potential impact on global economic ...

USA: pay attention to the ISM index and the labor marketThe ISM Services Business Activity Index for March will be published in the United States this afternoon.A similar PMI indicator released earlier indicated an improvement in the outlook, despite continued uncertainty about tariff policy.The March Challenger report on job cuts is also expected to be published. Although this indicator rarely has a significant impact on the market, it can provide additional information about the extent of federal layoffs.Eurozone: final PMI data and ECB meeting minutesInvestors will also focus on the final data on business activity indices (PMI) for March in the eurozone. In recent months, the revised figures have significantly differed from the preliminary ones, which makes them particularly important. In addition, the minutes of the March meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be published, which may provide insight into possible decisions of the regulator at the April meeting.Sweden: statistics and speech by the head of the RiksbankThe indices of business activity in the service sector and the composite PMI will be released in Sweden today. The consensus forecast assumes that they will remain at the level of the previous month, similar to the manufacturing PMI index published on Monday. The head of the Riksbank, Eric Tedeen, will participate in a panel discussion on the European capital market. Although Sweden's monetary policy is unlikely to be the main topic, there may be individual statements that could attract investors' attention.Main events and market newsIn the US, President Donald Trump announced the introduction of new tariffs on the Day of the Exemption, which caused uncertainty in the markets. Tariff rates range from 10% to 60% depending on the country, while a single base tariff of 10% has been introduced. These measures turned out to be tougher than expected, leading to a sharp decline in sentiment in global markets due to fears of a slowdown in economic growth, falling corporate profits and increased inflationary pressures.In China, the Caixin services PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February. This was the result of increased domestic demand, which contributed to an increase in business activity and the number of new orders, the best result for the services sector since December last year.In Denmark, the Central Bank (Nationalbanken) has published data on currency interventions for March. As expected, the bank did not take any action in the foreign exchange market, which continues a 26-month streak of non-intervention.In Poland, the Central Bank (NBP) left its key interest rate at 5.75%, which was in line with analysts' forecasts. Additional details regarding the prospects for monetary policy will be announced after the press conference of NBP head Adam Glapinsky, scheduled for 15:00 CET.Stock marketsAsian stock indexes are trading in the red zone, with the largest losses recorded in Japan amid the strengthening of the yen, as well as after the announcement of a 24% tariff against the country.Futures on European indices are also showing a decline, while American markets have suffered the most significant losses due to a sharp increase in tariff pressure, which is actually a hidden tax for consumers.The overall market dynamics are consistent with observations of the escalation of trade wars in the last month and a half.Currency and debt marketThe markets expected milder tariff conditions, but their calculations did not materialize. The final decisions turned out to be tougher, which increased the risk of a recession in the United States. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped sharply, while Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.5%.In the bond market, US Treasury yields declined along the entire curve, while the spread between two-year and ten-year securities decreased by 15 bps compared to yesterday's highs.Amid growing uncertainty, the US dollar weakened relative to other forex currency indices. USD/JPY lost 2% overnight and is trading near 147. EUR/USD strengthened above 1.09. Scandinavian currencies were influenced by multidirectional factors: on the one hand, the increased likelihood of a recession in the United States exerts pressure, on the other hand, the attractiveness of assets increases beyond the dollar. EUR/SEK is trading at 11.75, while EUR/NOK is trading near ...

USA: inflation and labor market expectationsToday, traders who prefer forex trading based on the news are focused on two news items from the United States – the ISM industrial business activity index for March and the JOLTs report on the number of vacancies for February. According to forecasts, the ISM index will remain at the level of the previous month, but regional data indicate a possible decline amid trade uncertainty. The Federal Reserve pays special attention to JOLTs data as an indicator of labor demand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions.The Eurozone: inflation and the labor marketPublished inflation data in the leading economies of the eurozone turned out to be mixed: France, Spain and Germany recorded a slowdown, while in Italy inflation turned out to be higher than expected. Overall, the HICP index for the eurozone is likely to decline from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms, driven by lower prices for energy and services. Despite this, the ECB remains inclined to lower rates in April. Unemployment data is also expected to be published today, which is projected to remain at 6.2%, indicating the stability of the labor market.Denmark and Sweden: Wages and PMIIn Denmark, data on wage growth in the private sector for the first quarter will be published. In the fourth quarter of 2024, nominal salaries increased by 4.6% year-on-year, providing a 2.9% increase in real incomes. Wage growth is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2025, but will be lower than in the previous year.In Sweden, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector for March is expected to be around 53 points, which corresponds to the level of the last five months. In February, the figure was 53.5, with all components except inventories showing growth, including new orders, production, and employment.Overview of global marketsAsian markets: Central Bank policy and business activityThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the key rate at 4.10%, which was in line with expectations. The regulator expressed confidence in a gradual decrease in inflation, but noted the risks of a slowdown in domestic demand. Financial markets have already priced in two or three rate cuts before the end of 2025.In Japan, a quarterly Tankan survey was published, the results of which were mixed. The index of business sentiment of large industrial companies decreased from 14 to 12, which was the lowest value for the year. At the same time, the service sector showed improvement, with the indicator rising from 33 to 35, reaching its highest level since 1991, boosted by increased consumer spending and a record influx of foreign tourists. Inflation expectations in Japan continue to rise, which supports the Bank of Japan's plans to further tighten policy.In China, the Caixin private business activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector rose to 51.2 points (against the forecast of 51.1), which was the highest value since November. The growth was driven by improved demand conditions and an increase in foreign orders to a maximum in 11 months.European markets: inflation and GDPIn Germany, the HICP index dropped to 2.3% year-on-year (versus the forecast of 2.4%), mainly due to falling energy prices (-2.8% versus -1.6% in February). A slowdown in service sector inflation (to 3.4% from 3.8%) may be a key factor for the ECB when deciding on a rate cut.Danish GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 was revised up to 1.8% QoQ (from 1.6% QoQ in the preliminary estimate), and annual economic growth was 3.7% (+0.1 percentage points to the previous forecast). The pharmaceutical sector continues to make the main contribution to growth, but other industries are expected to become more active in 2025.In Norway, organizations representing the interests of workers in industry have agreed on a 4.4% wage increase in 2025, which is slightly lower than Norges Bank's forecast (4.5%). This confirms the trend towards a slowdown in wage growth, despite a stable labor market, which opens up opportunities for a gradual easing of monetary policy.Stock markets: dynamics and expectationsGlobal stock markets came under pressure again yesterday, but the dynamics differed from previous sessions due to trade wars. In the US, major indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones is up 1.0%, the S&P 500 is up 0.6%, while the Nasdaq is down 0.1% and the Russell 2000 index of small companies is down 0.6%.The growth of the American market was quite broad: 21 out of 25 industry indexes ended the day in positive territory. However, the predominance of defensive sectors indicates that investors prefer safer assets, despite the improvement in sentiment. Volatility (VIX) has increased, even despite the rise of the S&P 500, which signals continued caution.Asian markets are mostly growing today, especially in export-oriented South Korea and Taiwan. European futures are also trading higher, while American futures are showing a decline.Currency and debt marketsThe US bond market ended the day with an increase in yields on the short section of the curve: 2-year US Treasury bonds rose by 5 bps, and the yield on 10-year UST was 4.21%. The rumors about the ECB's tougher stance supported the yield on 2-year German bonds, but did not have a significant impact on the euro exchange rate. The EUR/USD pair gradually declined to 1.08.USD/JPY continues to consolidate near 150.00. The EUR/SEK pair rose to 11.86, partly due to factors related to the end of the month. The Norwegian krone (NOK) initially weakened, but ended the day unchanged against the euro at 11.36. In the future, Scandinavian currencies will react to trade tariff decisions, while the Swedish krona (SEK) may be vulnerable to dividend ...

Eurozone: Focus on inflation in GermanyToday, the main focus of investors and analysts is on German inflation data for March, which anticipates the overall figures for the eurozone expected tomorrow.Earlier, inflation in France and Spain was below forecasts, which is a positive signal for the European Central Bank (ECB). It will be important to see if the same trend is reflected in Germany.According to forecasts, the eurozone HICP index will decrease from 2.3% YoY to 2.1% YoY, mainly due to lower inflation in the energy and services sectors.China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI – is growth possible?In China, the Industrial Business Activity Index (Caixin PMI) is expected to be published today. The consensus forecast assumes a slight decrease from 50.8 to 50.6, but there is a possibility of strengthening the result. This is due to improved data on other indicators, such as the Yicai index and rising metal prices in March.Denmark: Correction of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024Revised Danish GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published today. The preliminary report showed solid economic growth of 1.6% QoQ. However, quick estimates are always accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty, so it is important to understand how significant the possible adjustments will be.Sweden: Completion of wage negotiationsMajor industry salary negotiations are due to expire in Sweden today, which creates additional pressure on the negotiating parties. Initially, it was proposed to conclude a three-year agreement at the level of 7.7%, which is lower than expected and may indicate the risks of a downward revision of wage forecasts.Australia: Reserve Bank to keep interest rate at 4.10%The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to leave its key interest rate at 4.10% tomorrow morning, in line with market consensus. At the last meeting, the RBA began a cycle of rate cuts, but did not give clear signals of further easing. Currently, the markets forecast 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, but the probability of maintaining the current level tomorrow is estimated at 90%.Japan: Expectations for the Tankan report and the policy of the Bank of JapanTonight, the Bank of Japan will publish the quarterly Tankan business survey. The PMI indexes indicate steady growth in the first quarter, but the significant decline in March raises questions. The Tankan data is particularly important in the context of the Bank of Japan's future policy: positive results may strengthen expectations for further rate hikes. The spring wage negotiations also confirm the trend towards tightening monetary policy.Main focus of the week: trade duties and their impactThis week, the markets are monitoring the development of the situation around tariffs, especially from the United States. New widespread tariffs are expected to be announced on Wednesday, as well as possible retaliatory measures from other countries. At night, information was received that the United States could impose restrictions against "all countries," which contradicts earlier statements. In addition, the possibility of new sanctions against Russian oil buyers is being discussed.The final event of the week will be the US employment report for March, which is scheduled to be published on Friday.Macroeconomic events and market newsUSA: The core PCE index for February rose by 0.4% mom (consensus: 0.3% mom), which is higher than expected. At the same time, the overall PCE index showed an increase of 0.3% mom, in line with forecasts. The real volume of consumer spending increased by only 0.1% mom, which indicates a restrained mood among consumers.China: The official composite PMI rose to 51.4 in March from 51.1 in February. The index in the non–manufacturing sector rose to 50.8 (from 50.4), reflecting a recovery in the services sector, while the manufacturing PMI reached an annual maximum of 50.5.Norway: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.0% in March, as predicted. The number of new vacancies decreased slightly, which may indicate a moderate weakening in demand for labor. At the same time, the growth of retail sales in the last three months (by 1.3%) confirms the positive trends in consumption.Japan: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's March meeting showed that participants recognize the importance of recent wage increases as a factor for further rate increases. However, concern was expressed about the weakness of investment among small and medium-sized enterprises, which casts doubt on the sustainability of current wage growth.Geopolitical factors: trade conflicts and sanctionsUS President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened to impose tariffs from 25% to 50% on imports from countries that buy Russian oil if Moscow does not take steps to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. This statement followed Putin's words about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. In the coming days, Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Putin, which may determine the further vector of the situation.Stock markets: going into defensive assetsGlobal stock indexes closed in the "red zone" on Friday as investors reduced their risk appetite ahead of the weekend.US index results on Friday:• Dow Jones: -1,7%• S&P 500: -2,0%• Nasdaq: -2,7%• Russell 2000: -2,1%The negative sentiment continues in Asia, where the Japanese yen acts as a defensive asset. The Japanese Nikkei index has declined by more than 4% at the time of writing, and the exchanges of exporting countries are also showing a significant drop.Stock index futures in Europe and the United States point to continued declines, along with falling yields at the long end of the U.S. Treasury bond curve.Dynamics of the currency and debt marketsU.S. government bonds ended last week higher as PCE data, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and threats of new tariffs from Trump sparked caution in the markets. Stocks in the United States have fallen sharply, especially in the technology sector.Currency movements• The JPY strengthened against the major G10 currencies• EUR/USD rose above 1.1080• EUR/NOK rose to 11.35• EUR/SEK ended the week at 11.84This week, the key factor remains the issue of new tariffs, which will determine the dynamics of global ...

Inflation data and economic activity in the USAThis week, the February report on the Personal consumer Spending Index (PCE), which is the preferred indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve System (FRS), will be published in the United States. In addition, the revised consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for March is expected to be released. Although revised data rarely have a significant impact on markets, in conditions of political uncertainty, it is worth paying increased attention to them.Inflation in the eurozone: expectations of a decline in indicatorsIn the eurozone, investors' attention will be focused on the March inflation data in Spain and France, the publication of which precedes the pan-European HICP index, which will be released next week. Inflation in the euro area is projected to decrease from 2.3% to 2.1% in annual terms, due to easing price pressures on energy and services. Core inflation is also expected to decrease from 2.6% to 2.4%.Sweden: wage negotiations and retail salesNegotiations on a new wage agreement are continuing in Sweden, which is expected to be concluded by March 31. The latest proposal suggests a three-year agreement with a 7.7% salary increase, which is lower than expected. This may indicate possible downside risks in salary growth forecasts. The retail sales report for February will also be released this week. Sales showed steady growth last year, but the January decline and low consumer confidence may signal a continuation of the downward trend.China: restoration of industrial productionIn China, official PMI indices for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors for March will be released on Monday. The consensus forecast assumes a moderate increase in indicators, but a more significant rise is likely, given the positive dynamics of the Emerging Industries PMI index and rising metal prices in March. This indicates a possible recovery in activity in the industrial sector.Markets and macroeconomic developmentsUSA: comments from the Fed representativesIn the United States, Susan Collins, a representative of the Boston Fed, said that an increase in inflation due to the introduction of tariffs is inevitable, but its duration remains uncertain, and monetary policy should remain unchanged. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that high uncertainty could force businesses to temporarily suspend activity, which also requires a cautious approach to monetary policy.Gold and commodity marketsGold prices reached $3,076.79 per ounce as the introduction of new tariffs in the United States, geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in global economic growth led to increased demand for defensive assets.Japan: rising inflation reinforces expectations of rate hikesJapan has published data on the consumer price index in Tokyo for March. The core CPI index (excluding fresh food) rose to 2.4% YoY, exceeding the consensus forecast (2.2%). This reinforces expectations of further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan. We forecast two rate hikes of 25 bps each before the end of the year, the next of which is likely to take place in July.USA: revised GDP and reaction to new tariffsIn the United States, the revised GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was adjusted upward to 2.4% (consensus forecast: 2.3%) due to a less pronounced negative contribution from inventory changes. The number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits remained stable.The announcement of the introduction of 25% tariffs on cars caused a mixed reaction among US trading partners. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that trade relations with the United States have changed and a review of agreements is required. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the development of measures to protect the interests of the EU.Eurozone: credit momentum and ECB rhetoricIn February, lending in the eurozone continued to grow: household lending increased to 1.5% (from 1.3% in January), and to the corporate sector — to 2.2% (from 2.0%). This indicates that the effects of lower interest rates are being transferred to the real economy. However, the credit impulse, estimated at 1.17% of GDP, remains low by historical standards, despite the ECB's rate cut of 150 bps over the past year.The speeches of the ECB representatives were mixed. Many members of the Governing Council stressed the inflationary risks associated with tariffs, indicating a gradual shift by the regulator towards a more cautious approach.Norway: Central bank policyThe Bank of Norway left its key interest rate at 4.50%, but maintained a relaxed outlook. Two rate cuts are expected in 2025 and a possible cut in June under favorable conditions. We are revising the forecast for 2025 and expect two rate cuts (in September and December), three cuts in 2026 and a final cut in 2027 to 3.00%.Stock markets: reactions to new tariffsStock markets declined, but not as significantly as might have been expected after the announcement of the new tariffs. The S&P 500 lost 0.3%, while the European Stoxx 600 declined 0.5%. Over the past two weeks, American stocks have outperformed European stocks by 2 percentage points, but we recommend focusing on the fundamental factors that continue to favor Europe.The protective sectors showed the greatest growth — consumer goods and healthcare, while the technology sector (Nvidia), industry (automobiles) and energy declined. It is important to consider the ability of companies to price in the new environment. For example, Volkswagen shares declined by only 1.5%, while Stellantis fell by 4.2%, BMW by 2.5%, and French supplier Valeo lost 8% after announcing the need to raise prices due to tariffs.The European real estate sector grew by 2% due to lower European bond yields amid tariff news.The foreign exchange marketEUR/USD remains in the range of 1.08–1.09 with a slight advantage of the bulls. European interest rates have changed little, but the government bond yield curve continues to show an upward trend. The Swedish krona (SEK) exchange rate remains stable, but in the short term, upward risks in cross-rates are ...

To date, there are more than 200 stock exchanges with various levels of capitalization around the world. The activities of such financial institutions have an impact on the intensity of the economic processes of the entire market. In particular, the stock exchange provides optimal conditions for the turnover of securities and acts as a price regulator for them.The oldest trading platform is considered to be the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Its foundation was timed to coincide with the annual fair in 1585. By that time, Frankfurt had become a real economic center of Germany, where traders from almost all countries of the world flocked. The abundance of various banknotes provoked financial difficulties when concluding transactions. To solve this problem, the stock exchange was created. With its help, it was possible to create a single payment system and develop a fixed exchange rate.World stock exchanges and features of their functioningDespite the large number of financial regulators operating in all countries of the world, only a few of them have preserved and increased the power of their economic potential. Their capitalization level exceeds $ 1 trillion and accounts for 87% of the total market of the whole world. The rating of the world's largest exchanges is based on stock indices and data on the total turnover of trades. Today it looks like this.New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)It was created in 1792 as a result of an agreement of a group of American entrepreneurs. Shares of more than 3 thousand of the largest companies around the world are listed on its site. To successfully complete the listing, an investor needs to have an average annual income of $2.7 million. The Dow Jones index, as well as the NYSE Composite and NYSE ARCA Tech 100 Index are calculated based on the indicators of industrial companies' shares on the stock exchange.Read more: What is the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)NASDAQIt began its work in the 1970s as an automated quotation system. Today, more than 4,000 companies, mainly related to the IT sector, are represented in the listing of the exchange. A number of trading indices are calculated on the exchange, each of which is associated with a specific economic sector. The NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ National Market Composite index are consolidated.London Stock Exchange (LSE)The official date of its opening is considered to be 1801, although this financial institution began to function since 1570 under the leadership of the royal adviser Thomas Gresham. By its structure, the London Stock Exchange is a joint-stock company that sells its own shares on the market. It accounts for about 50% of the turnover of all securities in the world. The exchange works not only with large companies, but also with aspiring entrepreneurs, to whom it provides loyal conditions. The composite index is FTSE.Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)It first appeared on the Japanese financial market in 1878. In terms of capitalization, it is currently in second place after the New York Stock Exchange. The largest companies of the Asian and European regions place their securities on its platform. The main index families are NIKKEI 225 and TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index).Read more: About NASDAQ Stock ExchangeShanghai Stock Exchange (SSE)China's largest exchange is considered a non-profit organization and is under the patronage of the government Securities Commission. Based on the results of trading, the SSE Composite index is calculated, which reflects the state of the shares of all companies that are listed on the exchange.Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE)It has securities of one and a half thousand large issuers from Asia and Europe. Capitalization is at the level of $ 2.9 trillion, and according to this indicator, HKSE ranks sixth in the ranking of the world's major exchanges. The Hang Seng index represents the weighted average value of the shares of the 34 largest companies of the exchange.EuronextIt has its own branches in the Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium and France. In addition to securities trading, it provides clearing services and analytical information on the market. Its total capitalization is 2.9 trillion dollars. The list of indices calculated during trading includes: Euronext 100, AEX index, BEL20 and CAC 40.Read more: IPO of a company - mechanism, examples & strategiesToronto Stock Exchange (TSX)It first appeared on the financial market of North America in 1878. The Canadian dollar is used as the main currency. The S&P/TSX trading index reflects the condition of 200 companies whose financial weight is at least 0.05% of the total capitalization.Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE)It is a member of the United Union of exchanges of Asia and Oceania. Shares on the stock exchange are divided into two types: for residents and for foreigners. In 2016, free access to securities was opened for all investors, and a cross-trading system became available. The SZSE Component Index allows you to track the growth dynamics of the most liquid shares of 40 companies that are listed on the stock exchange at the current time.Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FWB)It has held a leading position on the German stock market since 1949. The main indicator of the DAX index reflects the value of securities of the 30 largest German companies and the state of the German economy as a whole.Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)It is considered the oldest stock exchange not only in India, but also in the entire Asian region. It was founded by the British during the colonization of the country. At first, the auction was held in front of the city hall building under huge banyan trees, then a separate building was built for this purpose. Today, its capitalization level exceeds $ 1 trillion, which makes it possible to leave behind all potential competitors in the region. The main stock index is BSE.Read more: What is an IPO: how the company goes on the stock exchangeNational Stock Exchange of India (NSE)It was opened in Mumbai on the recommendation of the Government of the country. The exchange organizes trades on the stock market, debt obligations and production instruments. The exchange's listing includes more than 1,600 of the largest companies in the region. The Indian rupee is used as the settlement currency.Swiss ExchangeThe trading platform started functioning in 1995 after the merger of the Zurich, Geneva and Basel exchanges. Today, all trades are conducted only in electronic form. Based on the SMI Index, a conclusion is made about the state of the 20 largest companies, the aggregate share of whose securities accounts for 85% of all exchange trades.Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)The main stock and futures exchange in the region. The activities of this financial regulator are controlled by the State Commission on Investments and Securities. The main financial index of the S&P/ASX 200 consists of the value of securities of 200 names of blue chips.Read more: The DAX index – history of its creation, structure and featuresKorean Stock Exchange (KRX)It is among the leaders in terms of trading volume with derivatives. The total capitalization is $ 1.2 trillion. It was formed as a result of the merger of KOSDAQ and the Korean Futures Exchange. The headquarters is located in Busan. The main index is KOSPI.NASDAQ NordicIt is a group of subsidiaries of NASDAQ Inc., which manage the stock markets of the Baltic States, the Caucasus and Northern Europe. The headquarters is located in Stockholm. 564 largest regional companies are represented in the listing of the exchange.Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE)The largest trading platform on the African continent. She started working in 1887 with securities of gold mining companies. Bidding is conducted "by voice" with subsequent offsetting through an automated system. The exchange gives preference to mining sector stocks. The main calculated index is FTSE/JSE.Read more: S&P 500 Stock Index - history, calculation and forecastingMadrid Stock Exchange (BM)Various exchange instruments are traded on this platform. In terms of capitalization, it is considered the largest stock exchange in Spain, far ahead of regional offices in Barcelona, Valencia and Bilbao. IBEX 35 is the base index of the exchange.Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE)It is located in the capital of Taiwan - Taipei. Transactions on securities of mainly regional companies are carried out on this trading platform. The total capitalization level is 0.8 trillion dollars. Based on the results of trading, the overall TAIEX financial stability index is calculated.Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (BM&F)It was formed as a result of the merger of the Brazilian Trading and Futures exchanges. The total value of transactions made on the trading floor per day exceeds $1 trillion. The main Ibovespa calculation index includes the value of securities of the largest companies that participate in the auction.Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV)The exchange began its work in 1908. The headquarters is located in Mexico City. Since 1999, all transactions have been concluded electronically. The IPC index includes the value of securities of the 36 largest issuers that are listed on the exchange.Read more: Nikkei 225 Index - history, calculation and the featuresMoscow Stock Exchange (MOEX)The holding was formed in 2011 after the merger of RTS and MICEX. Currency, securities, derivatives, precious metals and grain trading transactions are concluded on the exchange. In addition, the Moscow Exchange carries out clearing and depository activities. The Moscow Exchange indices are among the key indicators of the state of the Russian economy. Based on the results of trading, the Moscow Exchange Index is determined (calculated in rubles) and the RTS (calculated in US dollars).Italian Stock Exchange (ISE)It was founded in 1808, in 1998 it became a joint stock company, and in 2007 it merged with the London Stock Exchange. The trading platform is located in Milan. The FTSE MIB index is calculated based on the value of the shares of the 40 largest companies, the list of which is regularly reviewed and updated.Helsinki Stock Exchange (HEX)It began its work in 1908. Since 1980, the transaction system has become fully automated. Shares and derivatives of large corporations, including Nokia, Finnair and Tikkurila, are traded on the exchange. The main stock index is OMX Helsinki 25.Read more: Index NASDAQ 100 - history, advantages and what it depends ...

Indices for the investorNews reports often inform us about the growth and fall of stock market indices. Obviously, this is important, since it gets into prime-time news. However, what should this mean to the ordinary man in the street?Reference books tell us that "An index is a derived quantity ..." and behind the jumble of words they do not always give us an idea of the essence. School memories about "dividing something into something" generally set the right vector for reflection, but here it is critically important to understand what to divide into what and why. So, let's figure it out.Read more: Index NASDAQ 100 - history, advantages and what it depends onWhat is a stock market index in the financial world?Let's start from the beginning and consider the very first index that appeared in the world: this is the soaring Dow Jones Index. Its first version appeared back in 1884, and this index still exists today. The emergence of such a tool was associated with the need to assess the dynamics of industrial development in the United States. It was necessary to find some indicator that would help to assess whether production is growing or falling. How did you solve this problem?It's very simple: we took 12 of the largest industrial companies in the United States and calculated the average stock price for all. Then they did the same after some time. And again. And now several control points have already appeared and a graph has been built out of them, from which the trend was visible: in general, the prices of shares of the largest companies are growing or not. Since the growth of the share price is an indicator of investors' confidence in the industry, their desire to invest in it (and this is an opportunity for the industry itself to develop due to the inflow of investments), these calculations have become the main measure of industrial development. Therefore, the growth of the index means the development of the entire industrial sector, and the fall, respectively, indicates a crisis. The evaluation method proved to be viable, received the name of the authors-developers, and since 1896 the Dow Jones Index has been officially published.A lot has changed since then, including in the Dow Jones Index itself. There are Indices for different industries, for the economies of entire countries. And the indices themselves are now a little less straightforward - all sorts of correction factors are applied, dividends and a number of other factors are taken into account. However, the following principle remained unchanged: the index shows the average temperature of the development of an industry or a country.An interesting fact: from the very first version of the Dow Jones Index to the present day, General Electric was part of it.Read more: Nikkei 225 Index - history, calculation and the featuresThe Dow Jones index today is an indicator of the health of the US economy. It is calculated based on the value of the shares of the 30 largest companies. Another important index for assessing the US economy is the S&P 500, it is called the barometer of the American economy. It is calculated for 500 American companies that have the highest market price (capitalization).For Germany, the same index is DAX, for Japan - Nikkei 225. There are Indices for industries - for example, for energy, telecommunications, metals - they, in turn, show in the same way whether the industry is developing, stagnating or even in decline.Indices are the investor's loyal friendsFirstly, from the point of view of investments in the index itself: today there are tools in the financial system that allow you to earn on the growth of indices. And the indices are unique in this quality - they are always growing in the historical perspective. This is logical: civilization is developing, humanity is getting more and more benefits, and the index only reflects this process.And secondly, Indices help us evaluate the industry or economy of the country in which we want to invest in a security. The dynamics of the development of the industry or economy reflected in the index will help you assess the potential of a particular security: does it have the possibility of growth relative to the "average temperature" or is it worth waiting for a decline in quotations rather.Summing up, we note the main thing: indices are indicators of the development of industries and entire economies. Both governments and ordinary investors are guided by them. Therefore, when making a trading decision to purchase a particular security, it makes sense to look at the indices in order to assess the overall economic situation and understand the potential of the stock.Read more: S&P500 ...

Making a profit from financial instruments in the short, medium or long term is the main goal of any investor. Beginners prefer to use stocks and bonds, and we are usually talking about the direct purchase/sale of assets.But experienced traders often work with derivatives, the type of which is chosen based on the goals and skills of the investor. With the right approach, they allow you to make good money, with an inept one, serious monetary losses are likely.What are derivatives?Types of derivativesFuturesForwardOptionSwapFunctions of derivativesHow and where to trade derivativesChoosing a broker and opening a trading accountChoosing a derivativeAnalysis of the market situationPurchase of a contractWhat are derivatives?A derivative (derivative financial instruments) is a type of contractual contract that obliges the transaction partners to perform certain actions with the underlying asset in the future. Most often, this is the delivery of goods to a specific date at a given price on terms that do not depend on price fluctuations in the markets.The conditions prescribed in the derivatives contracts are called the specification. Holders have the right to sell the acquired derivatives, and their issuers are not always the owners of the underlying assets.Read more: Issuer of securities: definition, types and featuresDerivatives do not exist by themselves. These are derivative financial instruments that are inextricably linked to the value of the underlying assets, and there may be more than one of them.At the same time, the following can act as a base:Securities (Shares, ADRs, GDRs, etc.);Currencies (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc);Stock indexes (S&P500, Dow, NASDAQ, FTSE100, etc.);Commodities (metals, energy carriers, agricultural products, etc.);Macroeconomic and statistical indicators (key refinancing rate, inflation, weather, etc.).The derivatives futures market operates on the same principles as the securities and commodity exchanges. Pricing in this industry follows similar principles. At the same time, the total number of contracts presented on the market and the number of underlying assets are often not related in any way.Derivatives are a rapidly developing sector of today's financial system. According to the most conservative estimates, the volume of this market is $845 trillion. (the volume of world GDP is $86.6 trillion). A number of experts claim that the volume of the derivatives market reaches $2 quadrn.The first analogues of modern derivatives originated among Babylonian merchants. In Japan in the 17th century, rice coupons became widespread, and in the UK and Holland — options for flower bulbs. The first modern derivatives were launched on the London Stock Exchange in the 1860s. And they were actively distributed in the 20s of the XX century.Types of derivativesAll derivatives (derivative financial instruments) are divided into those that are traded freely (contracts of a standardized type on exchange platforms), and contractual (agreements in the OTC sector). Let's look at the most popular types of them.Read more: What is OTC and what are its featuresFuturesFutures contracts imply delivery on a specific date of the selected underlying asset at a given price. In fact, this is a contract of sale with deferred execution. There are futures:Settlement - without the physical movement of the goods or the change of the owner of the securities, the monetary settlement takes place on the day of the expiration date;Delivery - the goods are shipped directly within the specified time.Example: by buying oil futures, you can count on the delivery of the number of barrels specified in the specification by the deadline specified in the contract. But when buying index futures, only monetary settlement is possible, there is no physical commodity.Read more: What are futures: types, features, advantages and risksForwardForward contracts are concluded in the over-the-counter sector. They imply the delivery of the underlying asset at a given price by a specific date. Unlike standardized futures, they allow you to set additional conditions (quality, packaging, etc.), that is, there is still an opportunity for business maneuvers.Example: a large industrial production requires rolled metal after 5 months. According to analysts' forecasts, rental prices are expected to rise in the near future. At the moment, there are no free funds, as well as the desire to bear increased storage costs. The buyer and the supplier conclude a contract at the current price with the supply of products in the future with the payment of warranty security.Read more: Bulls and bears, as well as other animals on the stock exchangeAn example of a forward at the household level is drawing up a contract for the purchase and sale of an apartment in a house under construction or a car in a car dealership (if it is not in stock).OptionThe purchase of an option gives the right to buy or sell an asset in a given time period at a specified price. The first option is called call, the second-put. It is not necessary to execute the contract if the conditions are unfavorable for the owner (the projected price of the asset has gone in the wrong direction). It is acceptable to simply fix a loss in the amount of the option value.Example: on the stock exchange, a company's share is traded at a price of 50 dollars. The trader, having analyzed the market situation, revealed the probability of growth up to 65 dollars. He acquires a call option with the right to purchase a security at 50 dollars. with a guaranteed security of 10% (5 dollars.). When the desired price is reached within the specified period, the trader executes the option. And sells a share on the stock market already at the market price. If the forecast is not justified, it is permissible to resell the option cheaper or not to execute it, fixing a loss of 5 dollars.SwapA complex version of a futures contract, works on the principle of "2 in 1". A transaction is concluded for the purchase or sale of an asset with the simultaneous opening of a counter-directional transaction with the same asset on similar terms, but after a certain period. The main goals of using swaps are to increase the number of assets and reduce risks (hedging). The most common types of swaps are currency, commodity, credit, interest, stocks and precious metals.Read more: Swaps in the financial market. What are they and what are they given to the traderIn addition to these types of derivatives, there are other, less popular types — warrants, PCI, FRA, depositary receipts. There are also derivatives for derivatives, but investors are wary of such an instrument.Functions of derivativesDerivatives are acquired not only in order to become the owner of the underlying asset. Their functions are more diverse:Risk hedging (protection against sharp price and exchange rate fluctuations);Price arbitrage (conclusion of multidirectional transactions in several markets in order to make a profit);Tax optimization, for example, when using a stock swap, you will not have to pay a tax related to capital gains;Speculation on the price fluctuations of an asset;Reducing transaction costs;Expansion of earning opportunities through increased leverage (X100).Read more: Leverage on the stock marketHow and where to trade derivativesHow to trade derivatives:Choosing a broker.Opening a trading account and depositing funds.Choosing the type of derivative.Market analysis.Purchase of a contract.Working with futures contracts and options is similar. But there is one serious difference. Futures obliges to fulfill the conditions regardless of how the market situation develops for the owner. The option leaves the right to choose.As for the places where you can trade derivatives, ordinary investors are mainly available on exchanges where less than 20% of this type of assets are traded. Options and futures contracts are presented in the futures sections of these platforms.There are 64 exchanges working with futures in the world. One of the largest is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME (commodities and cryptocurrency).Among the cryptocurrency exchanges working with futures contracts, OKEx, BitMEX, Binance Futures, ByBit, Huobi and Deribit deserve attention (they are in the TOP 10).Read more: Overview of the Huobi Global ExchangeThe process of trading derivatives should be considered in more detail.Choosing a broker and opening a trading accountThe choice of a broker should be given maximum attention. In addition to having a direct access to the exchange platforms of interest, you should check the license. The list of licensed brokers is presented on the official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.It is useful to get acquainted with the reliability ratings on specialized Internet resources and reviews of real customers. After registering on the broker's website, creating a personal account, verifying your identity and installing a trading terminal (QUICK, MT4, MT5 or the broker's own developments), you need to top up your trading account.In some cases, access to the demo version (if available) is provided without making a deposit.Read more: Stock market Broker: how to choose it and how to work with itChoosing a derivativeOne of the main advantages of derivatives (namely futures) is a wide range of assets. We choose the market category from the following options: indices, commodities (energy, agricultural products, etc.), interest rates (LIBOR, RUONIA, etc.), currency or securities.After that, we select the type of trading instrument (a specific type of metal, a brand of oil, etc.). The choice should be made taking into account the previous trading experience. If a trader has been working with stocks for a long time, then futures and stock swaps are among the preferred instruments.Analysis of the market situationBefore making a final purchase decision, you should analyze the market situation using fundamental and technical analysis. It is necessary to take into account everything that may affect the value of the underlying asset in the future.It is not superfluous to study the history of quotes and track the news background.Read more: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME): history, structure, advantages and featuresPurchase of a contractAt the final stage, we determine the type of contract and the nuances of the specification. For example, there are 2 futures options available for gold — a standard one for 100 ounces and an e-mini (10 ounces). Having selected the necessary asset, we make a purchase request and confirm the transaction.At first glance, trading in derivatives (derivative financial instruments) seems simple and understandable.In reality, you need a lot of trading experience, a knowledge base, an understanding of the market situation, skills in analysis, risk management and the use of leverage.In the absence of proper training, it is advisable to undergo training and try out various strategies in the demo version. For beginners who do not have system knowledge, it is advisable to start with the most liquid and volatile instruments — oil futures, indices or blue-chip stocks.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their ...

Trading using a strategy of playing against the crowd is a style of investing that goes against the prevailing market trends by buying assets that are performing poorly and then selling them when they prove themselves.A trader who plays against the crowd believes that people who say the market is going up only do so when they have fully invested everything and have no further buying power. At that point, the market is at its peak. On the other hand, people predict a downturn when they have already sold out everything, at which point the market can only go up.Investors who act against the crowd tend to use various sentiment indicators, particularly those that emphasise out-of-favour securities with low price/earnings ratios (P/E ratio).Simply put - if you follow the herd, it will lead you to the slaughterhouse. Such traders swim against the current and assume that the market is usually wrong on both its lows and highs. They believe that the more the price fluctuates, the more misguided the rest of the market must be.The basics of trading against the crowd strategyThe strategy of trading against the crowd is not as simple as adopting a position that is the opposite of the common public view - "the trend is your friend". A stock that rises higher and higher over an extended period of time will naturally receive a lot of positive sentiment from traders - this does not mean that an investor trading against the crowd will immediately hate that stock and act the opposite. Going against the price trend is always a tough way to play. This approach is to look for a stock for which the sentiment of most traders does not coincide with the established trend. In other words, traders trading against the crowd are looking for stocks that are going up, despite a significant amount of pessimism.Read more: How to invest in stocks and what you need to knowThe reason behind this strategy is that pessimism indicates that many investors are avoiding the stock and therefore sitting on the sidelines. If the stock continues to rise, then at some point the mood will change and money from the outside will start pouring into that stock, thereby causing its price to rise in a short period of time. Rapid and violent consolidation is particularly useful for those who are options traders who trade against the crowd.Indicators for the trader who trades against the crowdTraders who trade against the crowd are constantly monitoring the markets and reading about stocks, which implies a sense of sentiment. It also helps to gain the ability to quantify sentiment, and this can be done in several different ways:Feedback from analysts, for example, is fairly straightforward. Analysts make recommendations regarding buying/holding/selling a stock, depending on what they think investors should do. If a stock rises higher but has almost no "buy" recommendation, then there is the potential for upside - which could influence those traders on the sidelines to buy the stock.Shorting a stock or buying put options are two ways in which investors can profit when a stock falls in value. Thus, tracking changes in the amount of borrowed securities sold short and the number of put option purchases are ways to quantify the negative sentiment towards a stock. If there is a large number of these negative bets being placed on a stock while it is moving higher and higher, then a trader who trades against the crowd can assume that there is a significant amount of money from the outside that can still be leveraged to keep the consolidation going.Read more: Leverage on the stock ...