Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, gold, cryptocurrencies and oil for Monday, January 22

NZD/USD: market is waiting for New Zealand inflation data for Q4The NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, once again testing the 0.5600 level for an upward breakout. The instrument is supported by technical factors, while trading activity in the US markets is reduced due to the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Investors are closely watching the inauguration of Donald Trump, waiting for his first decisions as president. The Republican administration previously announced its intention to significantly increase import duties, especially on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, which could provoke retaliatory measures and negatively affect global trade. At the same time, the attention of American market participants is focused on the preliminary December data on the construction sector. Despite a decrease in the number of building permits by 0.7% to 1.483 million and a decrease in the volume of new homes by 15.8% to 1.499 million, the overall picture remains positive, which reduces the likelihood of changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.The New Zealand dollar continues to receive support due to positive statistics from China published last week. In the fourth quarter of 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year against the previous 4.6%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 5.0%. On a quarterly basis, the indicator increased from 1.3% to 1.6%, fully in line with forecasts. The December data also turned out to be optimistic: industrial production increased from 5.4% to 6.2%, and retail sales increased from 3.0% to 3.7%, exceeding expectations of 3.5%. Additionally, the pair was supported by an increase in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand, which increased from 45.2 to 45.9 points in December.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.USD/JPY: the Bank of Japan is preparing to set a rate at a 17-year peakThe USD/JPY pair is showing a decline, correcting to the level of 156.12 during the Asian session, after a rapid increase last week. The weakening of the US dollar is related to the expectations of the inauguration of Donald Trump, which will take place today. The new president has already announced plans to promptly fulfill key election promises, including an increase in import duties on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, which is causing concern to market participants.The Japanese yen is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics. The volume of orders for engineering products increased by 10.3% year-on-year in November, accelerating from the previous 5.6%. On a monthly basis, the growth was 3.4%, exceeding analysts' expectations of a decrease of 0.4%. However, industrial production decreased by 2.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which nevertheless turned out to be better than previous values. The index of production capacity utilization decreased by 1.9% after October's 2.6% increase, while the index of activity in the service sector decreased by 0.3% after an increase of 0.1%. In the United States, December statistics on industrial production showed an increase of 0.9%, which significantly exceeded market expectations of 0.3%.On Friday, January 24, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting, at which it is expected to raise the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, the highest level since 2008. Experts believe that the regulator may increase the rate to 1.00% in the future, which corresponds to a level that does not cause overheating of the economy. The acceleration of wage growth should support inflation at 2.0%, which will allow maintaining a tight monetary policy. The consumer price index has already exceeded the regulator's target for almost three years, and the weakness of the yen contributes to high import costs. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is likely to emphasize his willingness to continue policy adjustments if the Trump administration's moves do not lead to market destabilization. Inflation data will also be released on Friday.: The core index, which excludes fresh food prices, is projected to accelerate from 2.7% to 3.0%.Resistance levels: 156.50, 157.50, 158.18, 159.00.Support levels: 155.50, 154.96, 154.50, 153.87.Gold market analysisGold is showing moderate growth, recovering from the decline recorded at the end of last week, when quotes moved away from local highs reached on December 12, 2024. The instrument is testing the 2705.00 level, trying to gain a foothold above this mark.Today, analysts' main attention is focused on the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, who is expected to make key decisions in the first hours after the ceremony. One of the most likely steps is the introduction of increased import duties on most goods entering the United States, especially from countries such as Canada, Mexico and China. These measures could trigger disruption of global supply chains if the affected countries impose retaliatory sanctions. Such actions may force the US Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary policy. This year, the market expects the regulator to make only two interest rate adjustments of -25 basis points or less, with the first reduction expected to take place only in the second half of the year.Additional support for the US currency was provided by macroeconomic data released on Friday. In December, industrial production increased by 0.9% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, exceeding expectations of 0.3%. Capacity utilization increased from 77.0% to 77.6%. In addition, the construction sector showed impressive results: the volume of house construction started increased by 15.8% month-on-month, rising from 1,294 million to 1,499 million units, which significantly exceeded the projected 1,320 million.Resistance levels: 2724.70, 2740.53, 2760.00, 2775.00.Support levels: 2700.00, 2685.56, 2670.00, 2655.00.Crude Oil market analysisThis week, WTI Crude Oil prices approached the significant mark of $ 77.00 per barrel. The negative dynamics is explained by the strengthening of the US dollar and expectations related to the beginning of Donald Trump's second presidential term. In his first days in office, he is expected to present initiatives aimed at increasing oil production and allowing the development of fields in coastal areas, which may affect the overall balance in the market.Meanwhile, a new report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a decline in oil prices in the coming years. According to analysts, in 2025, prices for "black gold" may drop to $ 69.76 per barrel, and in 2026 to $ 67.96, which is significantly lower than the October forecast of $ 72.84 for the current year. The IMF experts note that the market has undergone significant changes: a slowdown in demand from China and an increase in supply from non-OPEC countries are putting pressure on the value of the asset.According to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions in oil increased from 279.6 thousand to 306.3 thousand over the week, which is the highest since April, indicating increased trader activity.Resistance levels: 79.00, 82.40.Support levels: 75.90, 72.60.

EUR/USD: the pair is moving within the 1.0350–1.0000 channelThe quotes of the EUR/USD pair are in the correction phase, trading around the 1.0305 mark against the background of the weakening of the US currency. After a poor start to the year, the euro is regaining its position, receiving support from the publication of macroeconomic data.Today, key eurozone countries continue to provide information on inflation. In December, the consumer price index in France was 1.3%, remaining at the level of the previous month and coinciding with analysts' expectations. In Spain, inflation accelerated to 2.8% from the previous 2.4%. The consolidated indicator for the eurozone is projected to grow by 0.4% month-on-month and reach 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding the November level of 2.2%. At the same time, the base index, which excludes the cost of food and energy resources, is likely to be fixed at 0.5%. Increased inflationary pressures may adjust the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), forcing it to reconsider plans to lower interest rates or slow down the pace of their reduction.Support levels: 1.0230, 1.0030.Resistance levels: 1.0350, 1.0530.NZD/USD: New Zealand and the UAE have signed a partnership agreementThe New Zealand dollar is aiming to stay above the 0.5600 level during Asian trading on January 15. The national currency is supported by statistics on the business confidence index provided by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER). According to the report, the indicator for the fourth quarter increased by 16.0%, offsetting the previous decrease by -1.0%.Earlier, the strengthening of the New Zealand currency was driven by positive data from the construction sector and China's foreign trade. The number of building permits in New Zealand increased by 5.3%, which fully offset the 5.2% decrease a month earlier. Meanwhile, exports from China grew by 10.7% year-on-year after the previous growth of 6.7%, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts of 7.3%. Imports increased by 1.0% after falling by 3.9%, which contributed to an increase in the trade surplus from $97.44 billion to $104.84 billion, against expectations of $99.8 billion.In addition, representatives of New Zealand and the UAE signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement aimed at increasing trade and investment flows. According to forecasts, the deal will allow to reach a trading volume of 5.0 billion dollars by 2032, providing an annual average of 1.5 billion dollars. At the same time, in the first nine months of last year, the non-oil trade turnover between the two countries amounted to 642.0 million dollars, which is 8.0% higher than the same period in 2023.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.USDX: dollar loses ground ahead of inflation reportThe US dollar index (USDX) shows mixed sentiment, being near the 109.00 mark and testing it for a breakdown down. Yesterday, the index showed a moderate decline, continuing to adjust from the highs reached earlier in the week. The main driver of the "bearish" dynamics was weak statistics from the United States, which increased doubts about today's inflation data and lowered expectations of new changes in the Fed's monetary policy in 2025. In particular, the producer price index for the month fell from 0.4% to 0.2%, although it was predicted to remain at the same level, and year-on-year the indicator increased from 3.0% to 3.3%, but was lower than the expected 3.5%. At the same time, the base value decreased to 0.0% from the previous 0.2%, maintaining the annual dynamics at 3.5%.Forecasts for consumer inflation suggest that the monthly rate will increase from 0.3% to 0.4%, and the annual rate from 2.7% to 2.9%, while the base value is likely to remain between 0.3% and 3.3%. Such data may signal a slowdown in the pace of the Fed's dovish policy. Central forecasts with a 97.3% probability assume that the interest rate will remain in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%, especially given Donald Trump's policy of reforming import duties, reducing the tax burden and tightening immigration rules, which may increase inflationary pressures.In addition, the monthly economic review of the US Federal Reserve "Beige Book" will be released today at 21:00 (GMT+2). The document covers 12 federal districts, providing up-to-date information on the state of industry, agriculture, corporate and consumer spending, the real estate market and other sectors of the economy.Resistance levels: 109.50, 109.97, 110.40, 111.00.Support levels: 109.00, 108.50, 108.00, 107.50.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to move within the framework of the local uptrend, remaining above $ 79.0 per barrel during the Asian session. The market is gradually recovering, but participants remain concerned about the possible consequences of new US sanctions that could affect Russian oil supplies to China and India, as well as the overall supply level on the global energy market.The quotes support the latest forecasts of the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), according to which global oil production could reach 104.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and increase to 105.89 million barrels in 2026. At the same time, global demand is expected to decrease to 104.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and to 105.15 million in 2026, which will create an oversupply of 260 thousand barrels and 740 thousand barrels, respectively. This will be in contrast to the deficit of 170,000 barrels recorded in 2024. According to experts, the main increase in production is expected in non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana.Support levels: 78.30, 74.80.Resistance levels: 80.70, 84.40.

EUR/USD: Euro drops to November 2022 levelsThe euro continues to show a decline in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session on January 13, again trying to break through the 1.0200 mark and updating the November 2022 lows. The pair is rapidly approaching parity, and at the moment there are no obvious factors that can stop this movement.The US dollar is supported by expectations of the first steps of the newly elected President Donald Trump after the inauguration on January 20. Among the announced plans of the Republican administration is to increase import duties on goods from Canada and Mexico, which could accelerate inflation and force the Fed to tighten monetary policy. In addition, Trump's statements about the strategic importance of Greenland and the possibility of its return to US control are attracting the attention of the markets. His adviser Mike Waltz has already admitted that various ways of implementing this plan may be considered, including military measures.European investors are also analyzing December inflation data. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose from -0.3% to 0.4%, and on an annual basis — from 2.2% to 2.4%. Core inflation increased from -0.6% to 0.5%, reaching 2.7%. However, analysts believe that these figures are unlikely to affect the current policy of the ECB. Deutsche Bank experts note that despite the annual inflation rate in the service sector of about 4.0%, its growth rate and wages are slowing down. This allows us to expect to reach the target level of 2.0% by February. If the forecasts are confirmed, the ECB may consider lowering interest rates below the neutral level in 2025.Resistance levels: 1.0253, 1.0300, 1.0350, 1.0400.Support levels: 1.0200, 1.0150, 1.0100, 1.0050.GBP/USD: strong downward momentum of the pound is gaining momentumThe pound continues to develop the downward trend established last week, when the GBP/USD pair began to adjust from the local highs reached on January 7. The quotes are now approaching the 1.2140 level, testing it for a downward breakout. The US dollar is receiving additional support due to strong statistics on the US labor market.On Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT+2), the attention of British investors will be focused on inflation data. Analysts expect the annual core consumer price index to remain at 3.5%, while the overall figure could be 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. Also at this time, a report on retail prices will be published, which predicts a slight increase from 3.6% to 3.7%. On Thursday, the market will focus on the November UK GDP and industrial production data. Economists assume that both indicators will show positive dynamics.: GDP may grow by 0.2% after a decrease of 0.1%, and industrial production — up to 0.1% after a fall of 0.6%.Market participants are also assessing recent statements by the Deputy governor of the Bank of England, Sarah Breeden. She noted that current economic statistics indicate the possibility of a gradual easing of monetary policy, but the exact timing and pace of rate cuts remain uncertain. According to her, against the background of tax indexation carried out by the Labor government, the weakening of the national economy may continue, which requires a balanced approach from the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.2150, 1.2200, 1.2230, 1.2261.Support levels: 1.2100, 1.2036, 1.2000, 1.1950.USD/CHF: NBS expects revenue of 80.0 billion francs for 2024he US dollar is showing mixed dynamics in the USD/CHF pair, holding near the level of 0.91 70. At the start of the new trading week, buyer activity remains subdued, and there are no prerequisites for a noticeable corrective movement yet. The dollar is supported by expectations related to the start of the new term of Donald Trump, whose inauguration will take place on January 20, as well as data on the state of the US labor market, which may affect the monetary policy of the regulator.The Swiss National Bank forecasts a record profit of 80 billion francs by the end of 2024, which will be the highest figure since the establishment of the institution. The main factors of this result are the growth of the dollar, the appreciation of precious metals and successful investments in shares of the largest technology companies. The strengthening of the US currency, which accounts for 39% of the bank's reserves, contributes to an increase in the value of assets when converted into francs. In addition, the increase in gold prices, which rose by 27% last year, increased the value of 1.04 million metric tons of this metal on the bank's balance sheet. The official report will be published on March 3, but analysts are confident that the bank's shareholders can expect to receive their first dividend payments in the last three years.Resistance levels: 0.9188, 0.9225, 0.9250, 0.9300.Support levels: 0.9150, 0.9130, 0.9100, 0.9037.USD/JPY: quotes are moving away from recent peaksThe USD/JPY pair is showing a decline, retreating from Friday's peak at 157.35. This trend is associated with the release of new data on Japanese macroeconomics.According to November statistics, the household spending index increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, while analysts had forecast a decrease of 0.9%. On an annualized basis, the indicator decreased by 0.4%, which turned out to be a less significant decline compared to the expected decrease of 0.6%. Experts emphasize that the current wage growth rates offered by employers in Japan are insufficient to cover inflationary costs. This, along with the weakening of the yen, increases the financial burden on households and reduces the likelihood of continued tightening. Representatives of the Bank of Japan have previously stressed that the future of monetary strategy will depend on current economic statistics. In case of accelerated price growth, the interest rate may change. Currently, annual inflation is 2.9%, which exceeds the target level of 2.0%. If the growth rate continues, the regulator will have to take decisive action, which may support the Japanese currency.Resistance levels: 161.93 164.07.Support levels: 156.25, 149.57.

GBP/USD: british 10-year bonds have shown peak yields since 2008The GBP/USD pair continues to remain in the correction phase, trading around the 1.2294 mark. This dynamic is due to the stable exchange rate of the US dollar and the sell-off in the market of British debt instruments. Investors are concerned about the growth of government debt and the consequences of the first decisions of the new US President Donald Trump, who took office on January 20.The yield on 30-year UK bonds reached a record high of 5.455% in the last 26 years, while 10-year bonds rose to 4.921%. Despite these figures, the Ministry of Finance of the country does not see the need to take emergency measures. In 2025, it is planned to issue government bonds worth about 300 billion pounds, which, according to the authorities, can normalize the situation on the capital market. Rising yields can stimulate investor activity, and one of the possible steps to stabilize will be a short-term increase in the key rate, which will also support the fight against inflation.Meanwhile, the US currency is strengthening, the USDX index rose to the level of 109.0 points. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants expect the publication of data on employment in the US non-agricultural sector. 154 thousand jobs are projected to be created, compared to 227 thousand in November. The average hourly wage is likely to slow down from 0.4% to 0.3%, while the unemployment rate will remain at 4.2%. If the forecasts are confirmed, this could be a weighty argument for the Fed in favor of slowing down monetary policy tightening. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 93.1% of investors are confident in maintaining the rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. In addition, the published minutes of the Fed meeting indicate increased uncertainty about the economic course before the second term of Donald Trump. The regulator also noted the risks of accelerating inflation if the president's foreign trade and migration policies are fully implemented.Support levels: 1.2230, 1.2000.Resistance levels: 1.2380, 1.2610.USD/CHF: correction of the franc against the background of strengthening the position of the US currencyThe USD/CHF pair maintains a corrective trend near the level of 0.9125, demonstrating readiness for further growth. During the Asian session, the Swiss franc weakened slightly in the pair, which is explained by a decrease in market volatility and the strengthening of the US currency.The market is focused on the latest macroeconomic data from Switzerland. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index decreased by 0.1%, reaching 106.9 points, while in annual terms, the indicator slowed from 0.7% to 0.6%. The average annual inflation rate for 2024 was 1.1%, which corresponds to the central part of the target range of 0.0–2.0% set by the Swiss National Bank. These indicators may support the regulator's decision to continue its soft monetary policy in 2025. The bank plans to reduce the borrowing rate to 0.25%, and the head of the regulator Martin Schlegel admits the possibility of introducing negative rates. However, such measures are not yet on the priority agenda.Support levels: 0.9090, 0.8960.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9270.USD/CAD: the expectation of data on the US and Canadian labor markets sets the tone for tradingThe US dollar is showing moderate strengthening in the USD/CAD pair in morning trading, reaching the level of 1.4410. The upward momentum continues, but the pair remains under pressure from bearish sentiment after a sharp decline on Monday, January 6. Market participants are still showing restraint, awaiting the publication of employment data in the United States and Canada, which is scheduled for 15:30 (GMT+2).Economists predict a decrease in job growth in Canada from 50.5 thousand to 25.0 thousand. The average hourly wage is likely to remain at 3.9%, and the unemployment rate may rise to 6.9% from 6.8%. Additionally, investors will pay attention to statistics on construction permits: an increase of 1.8% is expected in November after a decrease of 3.1% a month earlier.On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that he would step down after the election of a new leader of the Liberal Party. Against this background, analysts are discussing the possible impact of political instability on the rate of the Bank of Canada. According to Bank of America experts, if, as CBC News polls show, the Conservative Party led by Pierre Pouillevre strengthens its position and wins a majority in the House of Commons, this will lead to a change in the political vector and increased fiscal discipline.Resistance levels: 1.4435, 1.4466, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.NZD/USD: holding positions at the minimum levels of October 2022The New Zealand dollar is showing a multidirectional movement, remaining near the 0.5590 mark and the October 2022 levels, which were updated the day before. The pair is preparing to end the week with a slight correction related to the strengthening of the US dollar amid expectations for the publication of data on employment in the non-agricultural sector, scheduled for today at 15:30 (GMT+2).In the absence of significant statistics from New Zealand, investors' attention is focused on China's inflation figures. In December, the consumer price index fell to 0.1% year-on-year, and showed zero monthly dynamics after falling 0.6% earlier. These data were in line with analysts' forecasts, but indicate a decline in business activity in the country. This situation forces the People's Bank of China to consider additional stimulus measures to support the economy. In addition, the situation is complicated by rumors about possible new import duties that the US republican administration may impose. This creates additional obstacles to the recovery of Chinese economic indicators.Resistance levels: 0.5607, 0.5641, 0.5672, 0.5700.Support levels: 0.5571, 0.5540, 0.5511, 0.5467.

EUR/USD: ECB to maintain soft exchange rate – Deutsche BankThe quotes of the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session show a corrective trend, holding near the 1.0349 mark. The euro has resumed its decline after an unsuccessful attempt at growth, while volatility is increasing amid investor interest following the release of key macroeconomic data.Inflation figures for December were in the spotlight. The consumer price index rose from -0.3% to 0.4% on a monthly basis, and from 2.2% to 2.4% on an annual basis. The base indicator also increased from -0.6% to 0.5%, consolidating at 2.7%. In France and Italy, the dynamics remained unchanged, stopping at 1.3%. Although inflation is showing an increase, its indicators are in line with the expectations of the European Central Bank (ECB). Deutsche Bank analysts believe that the regulator will continue to adhere to the current strategy, basing its actions on general economic trends, rather than on individual indicators. According to forecasts, the harmonized index of inflation may fall below the target level of 2.0% as early as February, which will allow the ECB to begin reducing rates to a sub-neutral level during the year.The strengthening of the US dollar continues to exert pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The US currency was supported by positive data from the labor market: the number of job openings in November increased to 8,098 million, according to JOLTS, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 7,730 million. In addition, the ISM index of business activity in the service sector rose from 52.1 to 54.1 points in December, reflecting improved business conditions. Against this background, the US dollar is steadily strengthening its position, reaching the level of 108.4 points in the USDX index.Support levels: 1.0300, 1.0150.Resistance levels: 1.0390, 1.0580.USD/CHF: exchange rate growth supported by inflation data for DecemberThe USD/CHF pair is holding near the 0.9097 mark and demonstrates readiness to continue growth, focusing on the resistance level of 0.9158. The exchange rate is supported by published data on inflation in Switzerland.In December, the consumer price index remained at -0.1% on a monthly basis, in line with experts' expectations and the previous indicator, continuing its decline for the fourth month in a row. In annual terms, inflation slowed from 0.7% to 0.6%, which opens up opportunities for the Swiss National Bank to maintain a dovish monetary policy at the next meeting scheduled for March 20. In December, the regulator lowered the interest rate to 0.5%, which was the lowest level since November 2022.The updated forecasts of the department suggest that the average inflation in 2025 will be 0.3%, and in 2026 — 0.8%. Among the world's leading economies, inflation rates are lower only in China, where the rate is 0.2% per annum. To stimulate price growth, Switzerland may need to take additional measures, such as raising borrowing costs or increasing the volume of liquidity in the economy. Both scenarios may put pressure on the franc exchange rate, contributing to the strengthening of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 0.9158, 0.9244.Support levels: 0.9022, 0.8917.USD/CAD: foreign trade has become a CAD growth driverThe USD/CAD exchange rate stabilized around the 1.4349 mark, against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar, which was facilitated by positive macroeconomic statistics from Canada.According to Statistics Canada, exports increased by 2.2% in November, exceeding the previous month's growth of 1.7%, while imports increased by 1.8% after 0.3% earlier. This dynamic has made it possible to reduce the trade deficit from $544 million to $323 million. However, exports of services decreased by 0.2% to $18.2 billion, while imports decreased by 0.1% to $18.5 billion. In addition, the Ivey composite Business Activity Index (PMI) rose to 54.7 points from 52.3 points, indicating a recovery in the business environment in the country.At the same time, the attention of market participants is focused on the developing political crisis. On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to leave office after choosing a new leader of the Liberal Party. Donald Trump, the US president-elect, in turn, spoke about the need to stop supporting Canada through American trade subsidies and hinted that the country's inclusion in the United States could stabilize its economy and increase its security. Earlier, Trump had already announced the possibility of imposing 25% duties on Canadian imports, which, according to him, could radically change the situation in the economy of the northern neighbor.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4150.Resistance levels: 1.4400, 1.4550.Silver market analysisSilver quotes (XAG/USD) stabilized around $30.0 per ounce after a temporary decline below this level. The instrument was supported by the weakening of the US currency, which reached an annual low of 107.5 points in the USDX index.With the beginning of a softer monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, silver is showing sensitivity to rate forecasts. However, this year, most analysts expect them to remain in the range of 4.25–4.50%. According to the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the probability of such a scenario is 95.2%. The recovery of the American economy is also supported by fresh data: the index of business activity in the service sector increased from 56.1 to 56.8 points, the composite indicator rose from 54.9 to 55.4 points, although 56.6 points were expected. The number of vacancies in the non-agricultural sector, according to JOLTS, also increased to 8.098 million from 7,839 million previously.Trading activity in the silver market is showing growth. On Monday, the volume of transactions reached 80.0 thousand contracts, which exceeds the figures of January 2 and 3 at 59.0 and 43.0 thousand, respectively. In addition, option positions are also increasing: the day before, their volume amounted to 11,970 thousand against 5,700 thousand last week. These indicators indicate the optimism of market participants who expect silver prices to strengthen and form long positions for the long term.Support levels: 29.60, 27.90.Resistance levels: 30.60, 32.30.

GBP/USD: pound dominates, dollar loses groundThe quotes of the GBP/USD pair continue to strengthen, reaching the level of 1.2533, against the background of the weakening of the US currency.S&P Global business activity data for December supported the pound, despite the fact that the figures are still far from forecasts. The index of business activity in the UK services sector increased from 50.8 to 51.1 points, which pushed the composite indicator to 50.4 points. This indicates continued growth, even despite the Labor government's plans to raise taxes. In response to the increasing pressure, businesses are preparing to raise prices and reduce investments. An additional positive factor was the improvement in retail sales: the index calculated by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed an increase from -3.4% to 3.1%. Such dynamics has not been observed since March 2024, when the indicator reached 3.2%.The US currency, on the contrary, showed a significant decline, falling to the level of 108.1 in the USDX index. Analysts' expectations for an improvement in activity in key sectors of the US economy have not been met. The index of business activity in the service sector rose from 56.1 to 56.8 points, but was lower than the projected 58.5. The composite indicator adjusted from 54.9 to 55.4 points instead of the expected 56.6. A slowdown in the national economy may prompt the US Federal Reserve to temporarily freeze monetary policy changes. This is confirmed by CME Group FedWatch data: the probability of maintaining the current interest rate increased from 88.6% to 92.5%.Support levels: 1.2460, 1.2300.Resistance levels: 1.2580, 1.2770.USD/CHF: monetary policy supports the pair's growthThe USD/CHF pair maintains an upward trajectory despite the recent correction. Last week, the quotes reached a nine-month peak at 0.9135, but then retreated to 0.9033 (the Murray level [2/8]). The decline is expected to be temporary, as monetary factors continue to support the pair's growth in the medium term.The Swiss National Bank is likely to maintain a dovish approach this year, lowering borrowing costs to offset a sharp slowdown in inflation, which is putting pressure on the domestic economy. According to December data, the annual consumer price index decreased from 0.7% to 0.6%, remaining below the target range of 2.0%, which reinforces the need for further easing. The head of the Swiss regulator, Martin Schlegel, previously admitted the possibility of negative interest rates, although he stressed that this was not the main strategy.At the same time, the US Federal Reserve is demonstrating a more restrained approach to changing monetary parameters, given the growing inflationary risks associated with the tax and trade policies of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump. At the December meeting, officials cut the forecast for the number of interest rate cuts this year to two instead of four. Fed officials such as Adriana Coogler and Mary Daly point to the need to continue fighting inflation, which may slow down the pace of policy easing, strengthening the position of the US dollar.Resistance levels: 0.9155, 0.9277, 0.93 99.Support levels: 0.8970, 0.8789.USD/CAD: resignation of Canadian Prime Minister shocks marketsThe USD/CAD exchange rate continues to decline, breaking the support level of 1.4350, which signals a possible further deepening of the downtrend. The political instability in Canada is in the focus of market participants' attention.Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his intention to leave office after the election of a new leader of the Liberal Party, which is accompanied by a temporary suspension of parliament. This decision came shortly after a meeting with US President-elect Donald Trump, who criticized the Canadian authorities for the increase in illegal migration and smuggling, as well as for the significant trade imbalance. Trump noted that the trade deficit with Canada is about $ 100 billion, and warned of the possible imposition of duties of 25% on exports if the situation does not change by his inauguration on January 20.Additional pressure on the pair's exchange rate is exerted by the weakness of the US dollar caused by the publication of macroeconomic statistics. The index of business activity in the services sector, calculated by S&P Global, increased from 56.1 to 56.8 points in December, but turned out to be significantly lower than analysts' forecasts (58.5 points). The composite index also showed a more modest increase, from 54.9 to 55.4 points, which is worse than the expected level of 56.6 points. In addition, the volume of industrial orders decreased by 0.4% in November, confirming the continuing difficulties in the American economy.Resistance levels: 1.4466, 1.4550, 1.4665.Support levels: 1.4150, 1.3950.Crude Oil market analysisIn Asian trading, Brent crude oil continues to adjust within the framework of the local uptrend, holding above the level of 76.0 dollars per barrel.Prices were supported by news about the increase in selling prices for energy resources with February deliveries to customers from Asia, Northern Europe and the Mediterranean. In particular, the cost of KSA's flagship brand Arab Light increased by 0.6 dollars for Asian customers and by 1.3 dollars for customers in Europe. These changes followed OPEC+'s decision to extend the voluntary reduction in oil production until the end of March 2025, taking into account changes in energy supplies to Asia from Russia and Iran amid sanctions.The market was also influenced by the statement of the US President-elect Donald Trump about his intention to lift the current ban on the development of oil fields in coastal areas. Trump has designated this decision, which affects an area of 625 million acres, as one of the key priorities of the first days of his presidency. Investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude, assessing the possible consequences of these initiatives.Support levels: 75.40, 72.20.Resistance levels: 77.30, 80.80.

EUR/USD: US economic data strengthens dollarDuring the Asian session on January 6, the EUR/USD pair showed a downward trend, trading near the 1.0309 mark, which is 0.67% lower than the previous session.There is a slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone. The business activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector dropped to 47.5 in December, indicating a reduction in activity. The consumer price index (CPI) in November showed an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, which is below the target level of the European Central Bank (ECB). The unemployment rate in the eurozone remains stable at 7.5%. Representatives of the ECB declare their readiness to take additional incentive measures in case of further deterioration of economic indicators.The U.S. economy is showing steady growth. GDP in the third quarter increased by 2.1% year-on-year. The consumer confidence index rose to 98.3 in December, reflecting consumer optimism. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year in November, which is in line with the target level of the Federal Reserve System (FRS). The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, which is the lowest level in recent decades. The Fed is signaling that the current monetary policy may remain unchanged in the near future. Retail sales data in the United States will be released today at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts predict an increase from 0.2% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 0.8% to 1.3% on an annual basis, which may support the dollar's position.Resistance levels: 1.0350, 1.0440.Support levels: 1.0260, 1.0170.GBP/USD: tax measures weaken the pound's positionDuring the morning trading on January 6, the GBP/USD pair showed a downward trend, trading around 1.2422, which is 0.31% higher than in the previous session.The British economy is facing a number of challenges. According to the British Chamber of Commerce, 55% of companies plan to raise prices in the coming months due to rising labor costs and taxes, especially increased employer national insurance contributions, which is the highest rate since 2017. Business confidence has declined: only 49% expect sales growth next year, and almost a quarter have reduced investments. Inflation reached 2.6% in November 2024.In addition, the tax increases introduced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in the amount of 40 billion pounds have led to a decrease in business confidence to a level not seen since 2022. Only 49% of the surveyed companies expect revenue growth next year. Despite this, the KPMG report forecasts UK economic growth of 1.7% in 2025 due to lower interest rates and increased government spending. However, tax increases and rising national insurance contributions can have a negative impact on business, and many companies plan to raise prices and reduce investments.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2600.Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2300.USD/CHF: forecasts for the SNB restrain the strengthening of the francDuring the morning session on January 6, the USD/CHF currency pair was trading around 0.9115, showing a weak upward trend. Over the past 24 hours, the Swiss franc has slightly lost ground, the pair added 0.34% to the previous close.The economic situation in Switzerland remains stable, despite the decline in global demand for the country's exports. According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the consumer price index (CPI) for December 2024 increased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 1.4% year-on-year, which is within the target level of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The KOF business confidence index fell to 98.6 points in December from 99.4 in November, indicating a decrease in optimism among enterprises. However, the unemployment rate in Switzerland remained at 1.9%, indicating continued high employment.At the last meeting of the Swiss National Bank, the regulator left the key interest rate at -0.75%, citing the need to maintain the competitiveness of Swiss exports. SNB President Thomas Jordan said the central bank would continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary to avoid excessive appreciation of the franc. Today at 10:00 (GMT+2), data on gold reserves in the SNB is expected to be published, which may have an additional impact on the franc quotes. Despite strong macroeconomic indicators, the Swiss franc faces external risks. Weak demand for European goods is having an impact, which negatively affects the export-oriented sectors of the Swiss economy. Moreover, investors are assessing the risks of a slowdown in global economic growth, which may limit the franc's strengthening in the near term.Resistance levels: 0.9150, 0.9200.Support levels: 0.9100, 0.9050.Gold market analysisDuring the morning trading on January 6, gold quotes showed a slight decrease, trading around $2,639 per troy ounce, which is 0.79% less than in the previous session.According to the World Gold Council (WGC), in 2024, the price of gold reached a historic high, exceeding the mark of $2,800 per ounce. Analysts predict that in 2025, gold prices will continue to show positive dynamics, but the growth will be less significant. Demand for gold from central banks remains high, which supports the prices of the precious metal. In particular, for the first time in history, Russia's gold reserves exceeded $200 billion, and the share of gold in gold and foreign exchange reserves was 32.9%. Retail sales data in the United States will be released today. Analysts predict an increase from 0.2% to 0.4% on a monthly basis and from 0.8% to 1.3% on an annual basis, which may affect the dynamics of gold prices.According to forecasts, gold prices may reach $3,000 per ounce in 2025, despite short-term fluctuations. However, some experts urge investors to remain moderately optimistic, especially during the first half of 2025. In addition, spot gold is expected to convert the $2,629 level from resistance to key support, which could contribute to further price gains. Tomorrow at 12:00 (GMT+2), data on the consumer price index (CPI) in the Eurozone will be published. Analysts expect the indicator to remain at 2.0% year-on-year, which may have an impact on the price of gold.Resistance levels: $2,650, $2,670.Support levels: $2,620, $2,600.

EUR/USD: rising inflation in key eurozone countriesThe EUR/USD pair is holding at 1.0425, showing a decline under the influence of the strengthening US dollar. It is highly likely that the quotes will end the current year near the October lows of 2023.In the last days of December, trading activity has noticeably decreased, as the market is dominated by long-term positions that do not significantly affect the formation of short-term trends. This week, investors' attention will be focused on Spain's economic data. After the publication of Friday's report, which reflected a decline in retail sales in November from 3.4% to 1.0%, preliminary inflation data for December is expected to be released today at 10:00 (GMT+2). Analysts' forecasts suggest an increase in the consumer price index from 0.2% to 0.3% on a monthly basis and from 2.4% to 2.6% on an annual basis. Such indicators, as in most eurozone countries, do not support the current dovish approach of the European Central Bank (ECB). At the next meeting in February, the regulator may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts. ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann stressed that further monetary policy easing is likely to be less active and may be postponed.Resistance levels: 1.0480, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0380, 1.0250.GBP/USD: the pound does not meet expectations due to low market activityThe GBP/USD pair remains in a narrow range of 1.2573–1.2490 (the Murray level [1/8] and the Fibonacci retracement of 50.0%), at the level of 1.2581: the recovery of quotations is hampered by reduced activity of market participants during the holidays and weak UK economic statistics.According to the ONS, the country's economy showed no growth in the third quarter, confirming the likelihood of it plunging into recession. The expectations of experts, who predicted an increase of 0.1%, were not fulfilled, and industrial production decreased by 0.7% in October. The composite business activity index also dropped to 50.5 points, which was caused by business concerns about an increase in the tax burden by 40.0 billion pounds, initiated by the Labor government. The situation deprives the market of hopes for economic improvements related to the political stability achieved thanks to the strong support of Parliament. The lack of positive macroeconomic drivers is holding back the Bank of England's ability to continue cutting rates. After the first adjustment in three years from the August high of 5.25% to the current 4.75%, the regulator is still taking a wait-and-see attitude. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, and five other committee members supported maintaining the rate, while three favored reducing it by 25 basis points, citing weakening domestic demand and a deteriorating labor market situation. Despite the current challenges, earlier measures helped reduce inflation: in September, the consumer price index fell to a three-year low of 1.7%, although the rise in electricity prices again kept the indicator above the target level of 2.0%.Support levels: 1.2500, 1.2350.Resistance levels: 1.2610, 1.2770.USD/JPY: domestic policy and uncertainty determine the course of the Bank of JapanDuring the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair shows a decline, holding at the level of 157.89, near the local highs reached on July 17.The main attention of market participants on Friday was attracted by fresh data from Japan: the consumer price index in Tokyo for December increased from 2.6% to 3.0%, and the base index excluding food and energy rose from 2.2% to 2.4%. This indicates an increase in inflation and reinforces expectations of a tightening of monetary policy at the beginning of next year. According to a summary of the Bank of Japan's opinions published last week, a significant part of the board members support the continuation of hawkish measures, but some of them note the need to take into account global economic risks, including possible changes in US policy after the inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stressed last week that inflation should be fixed at 2.0% to maintain stability, after which the regulator will continue to maintain soft monetary conditions in order not to exert excessive pressure on the economy. At the October 30-31 meeting, the rate was left at 0.25%, but the regulator made it clear that it was preparing to increase it in the short term. An important role in the future course of policy will be played by the results of the traditional spring negotiations between trade unions and employers on wage increases, which will have a significant impact on household incomes and inflation expectations.Resistance levels: 159.37, 162.50, 165.62.Support levels: 153.12, 146.87, 143.75.Palladium market analysisPalladium remains in a downward corrective trend, holding above the 900.00 level, but continues to experience pressure due to both fundamental and technical factors.One of the key reasons for the price reduction is the reduction of its use in internal combustion engines, which is associated with the transition of the automotive industry to electric cars. According to S&P Global Mobility forecast, global car production in 2025 will decrease by 0.4% to 88.7 million units, including a 2.9% decrease in the United States to 9.9 million vehicles. However, China partially compensates for this drop by increasing production of electric cars by 30.0% to 15.1 million units, which will account for more than 17.0% of the total market.Another important factor limiting palladium's growth is its low investment attractiveness. Compared to gold and silver, this metal has less liquidity and high volatility. Moreover, it is traded only on a limited number of exchanges. In December, the average daily volume of transactions with gold futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) exceeded 400.0 thousand contracts, while for palladium this figure barely reached 6.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 943.00, 1000.00.Support levels: 903.00, 833.00.