AUD/USD: probable growth of the downward trend
In the previous week, the AUD/USD currency pair lost its position above the level of 0.6400, which hints at a potential decline to the level of 0.6285. This trend largely depends on events in the Middle East, where fighting continues in the Gaza Strip, supporting tensions in the region and increasing demand for protective assets, including the US dollar. Statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve System about the possibility of further tightening of financial conditions had an additional impact, although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed that the decision to increase rates would depend on the level of inflation in the country, which remains low so far.
The Australian dollar continues to be under pressure, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia raising rates to 4.35%, which did not have the expected effect on inflation. In the latest monetary policy report, released on November 10, representatives of the bank noted that although the peak of inflation has passed, the level of consumer prices still remains high and more stable than previously assumed. It is predicted that by the end of the year, inflation will not reach 5.0%, but will remain well above the target range of 2.0–3.0%.
- Resistance levels: 0.6400, 0.6500.
- Support levels: 0.6285, 0.6185.
NZD/USD: No signs of economic growth in New Zealand
In the conditions of stabilization of the US dollar, the NZD/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction, approaching the level of 0.5893.
This negative trend occurs against the background of the absence of significant macroeconomic data. However, it is worth paying attention to the data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for October, which fell from 45.3 to 42.5 points, becoming the lowest since August 2021. In the services sector, the index adjusted from 50.6 to 48.9 points compared to 47.0 points in August and September.
The US dollar maintains its position at the level of 105.600 on the USD Index and does not show growth due to unfavorable forecasts from the University of Michigan for November, according to which inflation is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.4%. This may lead to the fact that the US Federal Reserve System will postpone consideration of lowering interest rates. The consumer expectations index fell from 59.3 to 56.9 points, and the consumer sentiment indicator fell from 63.8 to 60.4 points, resulting in an indicator of current economic conditions of 65.7 points, which is lower than the previous value of 70.6 points.
- Resistance levels: 0.5930, 0.6040.
- Support levels: 0.5860, 0.5770.
Cryptocurrency Market Analysis
Last week, the BTC/USD currency pair reached the level of 38000.00 (the highs of May), but could not overcome it, falling to the level of 37500.00 (the Murray level [8/8]), at which it continues to trade.
Bitcoin price movements are influenced by various factors. On the one hand, the growth is supported by expectations of the imminent launch of spot ETFs on BTC and ETH. On the other hand, uncertainty in the actions of the US Federal Reserve System is holding back this growth. At the end of the week, news broke that the SEC and Grayscale Investments were discussing the conversion of the GBTC trust into a bitcoin ETF, following a court decision that had previously declared illegal the refusal to create such a fund at the request of Grayscale. BlackRock also applied to create a spot ETF based on ETH, which was confirmed by the Nasdaq exchange, promising a listing of a new product upon approval. These events have caused a noticeable increase in interest in the digital asset market and are likely to continue to support it in the medium term.
- Resistance levels: 37500.00, 39062.50, 40625.00.
- Support levels: 35300.00, 32812.50.
Crude Oil Market Analysis
During the Asian trading session, the price of WTI Crude Oil is experiencing a correction, being around the 76.62 mark, after a significant increase at the end of the previous week.
The price level is influenced by the stable situation in the Middle East, where countries, including Iran and Syria, have taken a neutral position without aggravating the conflict. Additional pressure is caused by China's reduction of the request for December oil supplies from Saudi Arabia, which encourages investors to expect decisions from OPEC+ at the upcoming meeting on November 26. It is expected that representatives of the largest oil exporters will develop coordinated measures in response to the current global economic situation. In August and October, the OPEC Monitoring Committee, which held meetings in an online format, did not propose changes to the existing policy of the alliance.
- Resistance levels: 77.00, 78.00, 79.14, 80.00.
- Support levels: 76.00, 75.00, 74.00, 73.00.