Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Solana and Oil for Thursday, June 13, 2024

EUR/USD: business reports from the EU provoke a decline in the dollarThe European currency is strengthening against the US dollar, and the EUR/USD pair is consolidating around 1.0386, supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone.In January, the index of business activity in the German service sector rose from 51.2 to 52.5 points, in France, on the contrary, decreased from 49.3 to 48.2 points, in Italy it decreased from 50.7 to 50.4 points, and the overall indicator for the EU dropped from 51.6 to 51.3 points, remaining in the growth zone. The S&P Global composite index increased from 49.0 to 50.5 points in Germany, remained at 47.6 points in France, and rose from 49.6 to 50.2 points in the eurozone. Additionally, the EU producer price index remained unchanged in December, which was significantly better than the previous drop of 1.2%. Overall, inflation remains under control, which opens up the possibility for the European Central Bank (ECB) to further ease monetary policy.For the first time in a week, the US currency does not respond to fundamental factors: after the publication of statistics, the dollar adjusted downwards, trading at 107.50 in the USDX index. In January, the index of business activity in the US services sector decreased from 56.8 to 52.9 points, while the ISM index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector adjusted from 54.0 to 52.8 points.Resistance levels: 1.0430, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0210.USD/JPY: Bank of Japan confirms policy tightening courseThe USD/JPY pair continues to decline during the Asian session, developing a downward trend that began in mid-January. Quotes are testing the 152.30 level, updating the lows recorded on December 12. The yen is strengthening its position due to the growing demand for defensive assets, while investors are assessing the consequences of the trade policy pursued by the US republican administration.Japan's published macroeconomic data show positive dynamics: the Jibun Bank business activity index in the industrial sector rose from 52.7 to 53.0 points in January, and wages increased by 4.8% in December after rising by 3.9% a month earlier, exceeding analysts' forecasts for a slowdown to 3.8%.Kazuhiro Masaki, Head of the Monetary Affairs Department of the Bank of Japan, confirmed that the regulator is ready to continue raising interest rates if core inflation accelerates to the target level of 2.0%. This statement indicates the authorities' intention to maintain a course towards a gradual tightening of monetary policy, despite the uncertainty associated with US trade tariffs affecting market volatility. Recall that in December, core consumer inflation in Japan reached 3.0% in annual terms, the highest level in the last 16 months. The inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025 has already been revised upward from 1.9% to 2.1%, which reinforces expectations for further steps by the Bank of Japan towards normalization of monetary policy.Resistance levels: 152.74, 153.27, 153.70, 154.50.Support levels: 151.50, 150.50, 150.00, 149.35.Silver market analysisXAG/USD quotes continue their local corrective trend, strengthening after trying to stay below 31.00 at the beginning of the month. The instrument is currently testing the 32.23 level, setting the stage for further growth.The delayed imposition of trade duties on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, initiated by the administration of Donald Trump, has become a positive factor for the metals market. Washington agreed to postpone the restrictions for 30 days after the governments of the two countries promised to strengthen control over illegal migration and the fight against the smuggling of prohibited substances. However, the ongoing trade tensions continue to worry investors: more than 60% of U.S. silver is purchased from Canada and Mexico, and the dependence of the American market on these suppliers forced the White House to adjust planned tariffs on energy and raw materials in the mining sector from 25% to 10%. Despite this, the expansion of protectionist policies increases the level of uncertainty and stimulates demand for protective assets, including silver.Support levels: 31.80, 29.60.Resistance levels: 32.60, 34.50.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the morning session, WTI Crude Oil quotes continued to trade near their lowest values since December 30, holding at 71.00 under pressure from the foreign economic policy of the Donald Trump administration, which is accompanied by new trade restrictions.Since the beginning of February, the White House has imposed increased duties on a number of countries, but then postponed the date of entry into force of sanctions against Mexico and Canada for a month. In response, China announced mirror measures by increasing tariffs on imports of American goods. Now the market's attention is shifting to possible trade barriers between the US and the EU: earlier, Trump said that Europe was behaving "terribly" towards America. Brussels has already made it clear that they are ready to impose retaliatory restrictions if Washington raises taxes on European products.Additional pressure on prices was exerted by data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA): in the week ended January 31, commercial oil reserves in the United States increased by 8.664 million barrels, significantly exceeding the projected 3.2 million barrels. Similar data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) also recorded an increase in reserves of 5.03 million barrels against 3.17 million a week earlier. Meanwhile, OPEC has been reducing hydrocarbon production for the second month in a row: according to Reuters, in January, production decreased by 50,000 barrels per day to 26.53 million. The largest decrease was recorded in Nigeria and Iran (-60,000 barrels), as well as in Saudi Arabia and Iraq. At the same time, Saudi Arabian Oil Group raised the price of Arab Light oil for the Asian market by $2.40 per barrel in March, which was a record level over the past two years, reflecting higher premiums for Middle Eastern raw materials and improved margins for refineries.Resistance levels: 71.00, 71.62, 72.15, 73.00.Support levels: 70.00, 69.00, 68.30, 67.00.

EUR/USD: Euro in consolidation, awaiting growth momentumThe euro shows mixed dynamics in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, consolidating near 1.0380. After steady growth in the previous two days, the single currency reached the levels of the end of last week, which is associated with a sharp "bearish" gap at the start of the trading week.Traders' attention is focused on the January statistics on business activity in the eurozone from S&P Global. According to forecasts, the index in the German service sector will remain at 52.5 points, the same indicator for the eurozone will remain at 51.4 points, and a slight decrease from 50.7 to 50.5 points is expected in Italy. At 12:00 (GMT+2), December statistics on the producer price index will be released: monthly growth is expected to slow down from 1.6% to 0.4% and the annual rate will increase from -1.2% to -0.1%.Next, the focus of market participants will switch to the publication of American data. At 17:00 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in the service sector will be released: S&P Global predicts that the indicator will remain at 52.8 points, and the ISM index is likely to grow from 54.1 to 54.3 points. At 15:15 (GMT+2), investors will pay attention to the ADP report on private sector employment — experts expect an increase from 122.0 thousand to 150.0 thousand jobs, which will become a guideline before the publication of key data on the US labor market on Friday, February 7. According to forecasts, the NFP indicator will decrease from 256.0 thousand to 170.0 thousand, the average hourly wage in annual terms will decrease from 3.9% to 3.8%, and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%.Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0456, 1.0500, 1.0554.Support levels: 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253, 1.0200.GBP/USD: investors are focused on British statistics on the service sectorThe pound sterling maintains neutral dynamics in the GBP/USD pair, trading around 1.2469 during the Asian session: despite the correction of the US dollar, the asset fails to continue its growth.Investors' attention is focused on the upcoming publication of the index of business activity in the UK services sector for January: according to forecasts, the indicator may improve slightly - from 51.1 points to 51.2 points, which will lead to an increase in the composite index from 50.4 points to 50.9 points. However, the situation in the manufacturing sector remains difficult: new orders continue to decline and jobs are being cut, and in April the tax burden on wages is expected to increase and the minimum wage will be revised. As a result, the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' index rose from 47.0 points to 48.3 points, but still remains in the recession zone.Pressure on the US dollar increased after statements by the administration of President Donald Trump about postponing the introduction of 25.0% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico for 30 days. The leaders of these countries promised to strengthen measures to combat illegal migration, which investors perceived as part of tactical negotiations that contradict early statements by the White House about the need to protect national businesses. An additional negative factor for the dollar was JOLTS data on the number of open vacancies in the United States, which decreased from 8,156 million to 7,600 million, the lowest level since September.Resistance levels: 1.2520, 1.2690.Support levels: 1.2420, 1.2250.USD/CAD: analysts warn of a possible crisis in CanadaThe USD/CAD pair is consolidating at 1.3430, testing the resistance level against the background of a decrease in trading activity after a sharp increase in quotations to 1.4800 at the beginning of the week. The rise was caused by the announcement of the introduction of US tariffs of 25.0% on imports of goods from Canada, but the parties agreed to postpone the deadline, giving Ottawa the opportunity to strengthen control over migration flows.Analysts warn that the escalation of trade disputes could become the largest crisis in economic relations between the two countries since the 1930s. The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 6.7% to 8.7–9.7%, which will return the indicator to the values of the COVID-19 pandemic. Doug Porter, an economist at the Bank of Montreal, believes that the Canadian economy will enter a "moderate recession" as early as 2025, and Tu Nguyen, an expert at RSM Canada, estimates a possible decline in GDP of 2.0%, which exceeds the previously forecast 1.8%.Investors are awaiting Friday's release of January Canadian labor market data. According to preliminary estimates, the number of people employed in the economy will decrease from 90.9 thousand to 25.0 thousand, the average hourly wage will show an increase from 3.7% to 3.8%, and the unemployment rate will increase to 6.8%.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4435, 1.4471.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.Gold market analysisDuring the Asian session, the XAU/USD pair maintains steady growth, testing the 2850.00 mark for an upward breakout, as demand for defensive assets remains high.The market continues to react to the US trade policy: after the announcement of 25.0% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico on February 1, the Donald Trump administration agreed to postpone their introduction for a month. This happened after Ottawa committed to strengthening border controls, and Mexico City agreed to send 10,000 troops to combat illegal migration and smuggling. Meanwhile, 10.0% tariffs have already been imposed on China, to which Beijing responded with symmetrical measures affecting American coal, LNG, agricultural machinery and automobiles. Now the markets are waiting for possible negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping: if they are successful, duties can be mitigated, but if the parties do not come to an agreement, a new stage of the trade conflict risks disrupting global supply chains.The situation in the futures market remains tense. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the volume of net speculative positions in gold last week amounted to 299.4 thousand, only slightly below 300.8 thousand a week earlier. Investors continue to form new positions, which indicates a high probability of continued volatile movement. The number of bullish contracts in positions secured by real funds reached 242,828 thousand against 12,236 thousand for the bears. At the same time, buyers increased their positions by 2,910 thousand, and sellers — by 6,676 thousand, which indicates continued interest in gold in an uncertain environment.Resistance levels: 2858.06, 2875.00, 2900.00, 2920.00.Support levels: 2845.00, 2830.42, 2807.13, 2790.00.

EUR/USD: the market is considering easing the US tariff policyThe EUR/USD pair is correcting upward after testing support at 1.0221, seeking to gain a foothold in the 1.0302 area amid a review of US trade policy.The day before, US President Donald Trump unexpectedly softened his rhetoric regarding new duties: the initially announced 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, which was supposed to take effect on February 4, was postponed for 30 days after talks with Mexican leader Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It is expected that during this time the parties will be able to reach a compromise. Against the background of this news, investors actively withdrew from risky assets at the beginning of Monday's trading, which led to a 1.46% decline in the euro, but later the quotes regained some of their losses, ending the day with a drop of only 0.18%. Postponing the introduction of trade barriers has increased demand for the European currency, but further risks remain. If the White House starts discussing similar tariffs on imports from the EU, the EUR/USD pair may not only update the January low at 1.0177, but also test parity.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0630, 1.0820.Support levels: 1.0220, 1.0085, 1.0000.AUD/USD: Trump temporarily freezes increase in duties on Mexican importsThe Australian dollar holds its position in the AUD/USD pair, trading at 0.6199, remaining above the minimum values of last year. Despite the neutral reaction of the market to macroeconomic statistics, quotes remain stable against the background of adjustments in the positions of the US currency.After a significant strengthening at the beginning of the week, the US dollar fell back to Monday's levels, trading around 108.60 in the USDX index. This happened after the White House announced a temporary postponement of 25.0% of duties on Mexican goods, as the Mexican authorities agreed to increase the number of national guards on the border with the United States by 10.0 thousand people to combat illegal migration and drug trafficking. An additional factor influencing the dynamics of the pair will be the publication at 17:00 (GMT+2) of December statistics on the number of open vacancies in the US labor market (JOLTS). It is expected that the figure will decrease from 8.098 million to 8.010 million, which may increase pressure on the US currency.Resistance levels: 0.6260, 0.6400.Support levels: 0.6150, 0.6000.Silver market analysisDuring the morning trading on February 4, silver quotes showed mixed dynamics, holding near the $31.50 per ounce mark, which is close to two-month highs. The day before, silver prices showed rapid growth, which was the market's reaction to the publication of the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed). The regulator kept the interest rate at 4.50%, emphasizing the desire to ensure maximum employment and reduce inflation to the target level of 2% in the long term. At the same time, the Committee on Open Market Operations (FOMC) is ready to adjust its approach to monetary policy depending on economic conditions.According to forecasts, the global silver market will remain in short supply in 2025. Total supply will increase by 3% to 1.05 billion ounces, reaching an 11-year high. Production will increase by 2% to 844 million ounces, which will be a seven-year high. Demand for silver will remain stable at 1.2 billion ounces, while industrial consumption will grow by 3% and exceed 700 million ounces for the first time. Physical investment in silver will also increase by 3% due to increased demand in Europe and North America. However, the demand for jewelry will decrease by 6%, mainly due to high prices in India.Resistance levels: 31.00, 31.30, 31.56, 32.00.Support levels: 30.77, 30.50, 30.25, 30.00.Coffee market analysisDuring the morning trading on February 4, coffee quotes show mixed dynamics. Arabica futures on the New York ICE Exchange have reached a new record, approaching $4 per pound, due to extremely limited supplies and concerns about future harvests. Earlier, on January 30, Arabica prices reached a historic high of $3,7685 per pound, which is 1.9% higher than the previous session.The situation on the coffee market remains tense due to adverse weather conditions in key producing countries. In Brazil, which provides almost half of the world's arabica production, the drought caused significant damage to last year's crop, resulting in a sharp reduction in certified arabica stocks by almost 100,000 bags, to about 900,000 bags. In addition, farmers in Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta, are holding back sales in anticipation of further price increases, which also helps to limit supply in the market.Experts note that Brazil's current buffer reserves have decreased to 500,000 bags (60 kg) against the traditional 8 million bags, which means that any additional weather disasters could have a significant impact on global coffee prices. Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam are also showing an increase. As of February 3, 2025, the average price was 130,600 VND per kilogram, which is 1,700 VND more than in the previous trading session.Resistance levels: 4.00, 4.10.Support levels: 3.70, 3.60.

AUD/USD: AUD rate falls to record levelsThe Australian dollar continues to lose ground in the AUD/USD pair, demonstrating a steady downward trend during Asian trading. The quotes of the instrument are approaching the level of 0.6115, updating the minimum values since April 2020, which confirms the stability of the "bearish" momentum laid down last week.Recent macroeconomic reports have an additional impact on the Australian currency. December retail sales in the country decreased by 0.1% compared with the November decline of 0.7%, but the quarterly figure accelerated from 0.5% to 1.0%. The volume of building permits increased by 0.7% after falling by 3.4% a month earlier, and year-on-year the indicator strengthened to 12.2% from the previous 3.2%. The S&P Global industrial business activity index rose from 49.8 to 50.2 points, while the Chinese Caixin index, reflecting the situation in the manufacturing sector, fell from 50.5 to 50.1 points. The easing of inflationary pressures also creates conditions for a change in monetary policy. The producer price index slowed to 0.8% month—on-month in the fourth quarter, while forecasts indicated a 1.0% retention, and from 3.9% to 3.7% year-on-year. This, along with a reduction in consumer inflation, may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to ease policy. According to Bloomberg's forecast, the regulator may cut the rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% as early as this month, which will increase pressure on the Australian dollar.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6155, 0.6178, 0.6200.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6070, 0.6030, 0.6000.USD/CAD: Ottawa responds to Washington by imposing trade dutiesThe USD/CAD pair has updated the historical highs of 2016 and 2020, reaching 1.4740, the highest level in the last 11 years. This move was a reaction to the introduction of 25 percent trade duties by the administration of US President Donald Trump, while the rate for energy imports will be 10.0%.The head of the White House stressed that in case of retaliatory measures from Canada and other countries, tariffs may be increased. However, Ottawa did not hesitate and, starting on February 4, introduces mirror duties on American products, including food, alcohol, weapons and motorcycles, which together will affect imports worth $155.0 billion. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged citizens to give preference to nationally produced goods, and a number of provinces have already announced their refusal to cooperate with well-known alcohol brands from the United States. Additionally, Canada and Mexico confirmed their readiness to present a united front against Washington's economic policy, as the new tariffs threaten serious losses for the decades-old trilateral trade partnership. Against the background of the escalation of the trade conflict, the USDX index started with a gap and is already trading near the January high of 109.48, and a further escalation of the confrontation may accelerate the movement of the US currency to the 2022 extreme of 114.68.Resistance levels: 1.4940, 1.5230.Support levels: 1.4466, 1.4280.Gold market analysisThe XAU/USD pair is steadily approaching the 2800.0 mark, remaining in the local maximum zone. The key factor determining the further movement of quotations remains the dynamics of the US dollar, which today almost managed to reach its January peak at 109.90 in the USDX index. However, gold continues to receive support amid steady demand from global central banks, including the People's Bank of China. In November, the Chinese regulator purchased 5.0 tons of the precious metal, which is almost 10.0% of the total global purchases, which reached 53.0 tons.The foreign trade policy of US President Donald Trump remains an additional driver for strengthening the position of gold. New tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China will come into force tomorrow.: The rate will be 25.0% and 10.0%, respectively. Silver coming from Canada and Mexico is also subject to restrictions, accounting for about 64.0% of total U.S. consumption. These changes may lead to an increase in demand for gold as an alternative asset, especially against the background of a possible correction in the stock market and instability in global trade.Resistance levels: 2815.0, 2930.0.Support levels: 2750.0, 2625.0.Crude Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices are showing a moderate decline in morning trading, testing support around 73.30 as traders assess the impact of new US trade measures and the prospects for global demand.Investors are closely following President Donald Trump's decision to impose 25.0% duties on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, while energy supplies from Canada are subject to a reduced rate of 10.0%. A similar tariff applies to Chinese products, adding to the existing restrictions. Moreover, Trump again mentioned the possibility of introducing similar barriers to imports from the EU. Against this background, Canada and a number of European countries have strongly criticized and promised retaliatory measures. Although Trump made it clear that oil could be excluded from the list of taxable goods, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau refused to rule out the possibility of limiting hydrocarbon supplies to the United States, saying his cabinet was considering all possible retaliatory steps.The US position on OPEC+ exerts additional pressure on the market. The head of the White House continues to demand a reduction in global energy prices. Representatives of the cartel will hold talks today, but earlier the alliance stated that it has no plans to abandon the current production restrictions and artificial oil price retention. According to OPEC+ forecasts, global demand for raw materials may increase by 0.7–1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, which creates additional uncertainty in the future of price fluctuations.Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00.Support levels: 73.00, 72.15, 71.62, 71.00.

EUR/GBP: euro is declining due to the ECB's rhetoricThe European currency remains under pressure in the EUR/GBP pair, showing weak dynamics during the Asian session. The instrument is moving within the downtrend formed on January 23, testing the 0.8360 level and updating the minimum values since January 9.The main factor in the decline of the euro was the outcome of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). As analysts predicted, the regulator reduced key interest rates by 25 basis points: the base interest rate is now 2.90%, and the deposit rate is 2.75%. In an official commentary, ECB representatives expressed concern about the potential acceleration of inflation and said they would continue to closely monitor macroeconomic indicators. At the same time, wage growth rates are beginning to stabilize, which, according to experts, will have a restraining effect on inflation risks in the future. There were no clear signals regarding further monetary policy, but a significant number of analysts believe that the ECB may continue to cut rates at each subsequent meeting until mid-summer.Additional support for the pound was provided by the data on lending published the day before: in December, the volume of consumer loans increased from 0.905 billion pounds to 1.045 billion pounds, exceeding expectations of 0.95 billion pounds. The net consumer lending rate also showed significant growth, from 3.5 billion pounds to 4.6 billion pounds, reaching its highest level since September 2022. In addition, the number of approved mortgage applications increased from 66,061 thousand to 66,526 thousand, while forecasts suggested a decrease to 65,400 thousand. These figures indicate the continued steady demand for loans, which increases investor optimism about the prospects for the UK economy, despite the increase in the tax burden planned in the new budget. In addition, the Reuters news agency presented the results of the latest survey of experts: the overwhelming majority of respondents expect that at the next meeting the Bank of England will cut the interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, after which it will take a break to assess the effectiveness of its policy.Resistance levels: 0.8370, 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419.Support levels: 0.8350, 0.8340, 0.8326, 0.8310.NZD/USD: a cautious correction before the statistics on the US PCE indexThe New Zealand dollar shows moderate growth in the NZD/USD pair during the Asian session, consolidating near 0.5646 after weakening during the week. The technical correction contributes to the recovery, as market participants prefer to refrain from active transactions ahead of the publication of key data on inflation in the United States. Investors' attention is focused on statistics on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), which is a guideline for the Federal Reserve when making monetary policy decisions. The base index is projected to increase from 0.1% to 0.2% in December, maintaining the annual value at 2.8%, while the overall index may strengthen to 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year.Macroeconomic data from New Zealand published on the eve reflected a decline in business confidence: the index from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decreased from 62.3 to 54.4 points, and the indicator of forecasted business activity from ANZ fell from 50.3% to 45.8%. At the same time, the situation in foreign trade improved: December exports increased from 6.42 billion to 6.84 billion New Zealand dollars, while imports decreased from 6.85 billion to 6.62 billion dollars. As a result, the monthly trade balance entered a positive zone, recording a surplus of $219 million against a deficit of $435 million in November.Meanwhile, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway noted that New Zealand is losing ground in the global economy, losing ground not only to its largest trading partners, but also to emerging economies. According to his forecasts, the GDP growth rate in the next three years will be 1.5%-2.0% per year, which is significantly lower than historical figures. According to Conway, the key reasons for the slowdown were the weak dynamics of foreign trade, lack of foreign investment, lack of financing for innovative developments and lack of qualified personnel.Resistance levels: 0.5650, 0.5672, 0.5700, 0.5723.Support levels: 0.5633, 0.5607, 0.5571, 0.5540.USD/CAD: US GDP slowed to 2.3% at the end of the year, contrary to forecastsThe USD/CAD pair remains under pressure from fundamental factors, holding in the area of 1.4480 and demonstrating the potential for updating local highs.The US currency is showing a moderate correction, rising to around 108.00 in the USDX index on the back of fresh macroeconomic data. According to published statistics, the US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter slowed from 3.1% to 2.3%, falling short of analysts' forecasts of 2.7%. At the same time, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 223.0 thousand to 207.0 thousand in a week, which temporarily supported the dollar. Investors are also closely monitoring the upcoming introduction of import tariffs, which are expected to take effect tomorrow. US President Donald Trump has confirmed that the new restrictions will affect shipments from Canada, Mexico and several other countries. According to the American leader, the imposition of duties is due to the inability of these states to control illegal migration, as well as their policy of significant subsidies that create a trade imbalance to the detriment of the United States.Resistance levels: 1.4520, 1.4740.Support levels: 1.4410, 1.4170.Crude Oil market overviewThe quotes of WTI Crude Oil continue to move within the corrective trend, again approaching the important level of 72.00. The upward momentum is supported by the ongoing uncertainty regarding the trade policy of the US Republican administration, which forces investors to exercise caution.The latest statistics on raw material stocks had an additional impact on price dynamics. Thus, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), published on Wednesday, showed only a slight increase in oil volumes in storage — by 2,860 million barrels after an increase of 1,000 million a week earlier. A similar report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed an increase in inventories of 3.463 million barrels, while previous figures recorded a decrease of 1.017 million barrels. This information increased the pressure on oil prices, contributing to the persistence of negative market sentiment.Meanwhile, traders are paying attention to the latest statistics from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the latest report, the volume of net speculative positions decreased from 306.3 thousand to 298.8 thousand contracts in a week. Despite this pullback, the indicator remains at a fairly high level, which increases the likelihood of sharp price fluctuations in the coming trading sessions.Support levels: 72.10, 69.00.Resistance levels: 74.00, 77.00.

EUR/USD: investors are watching the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the ECBThe euro is showing moderate growth in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, correcting after a sharp drop the day before: the asset is testing the 1.0440 mark for an upward breakout, while traders expect new triggers for market movements and details about the trade policy of US President Donald Trump. The US currency continues to receive support after recent statements by the head of the White House about the possible imposition of tariffs on imports of semiconductors, pharmaceutical products and steel in order to stimulate domestic production. Recall that from February 1, 25.0% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico will come into force, but the fate of similar measures against the EU and China remains uncertain.The US macroeconomic statistics published the day before turned out to be contradictory: orders for durable goods in December fell by 2.2% after falling by 2.0% in the previous month, while analysts expected an increase of 0.8%, and the indicator excluding the transport sector added 0.3% after a decrease of 0.2% in November with a forecast of 0.4%.. The Richmond Federal Reserve's industrial business activity index rose from -10.0 to -4.0 points in January, beating forecasts of -8.0 points.Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by the results of an ECB survey, according to which in the fourth quarter of 2024, eurozone financial institutions tightened lending conditions for businesses, and this trend is likely to continue in the coming months. Analysts note that borrowing volumes are declining amid weak domestic demand, slowing exports and government spending cuts. The most stringent credit conditions are recorded in commercial real estate, trade, the construction sector and energy-intensive industries.Resistance levels: 1.0456, 1.0500, 1.0554, 1.0600.Support levels: 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0253.AUD/USD: inflation in Australia accelerated to 2.5%The Australian dollar is showing weakness in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, continuing its downward movement in the short term. Quotes are trying to break through the 0.6235 level, and traders are evaluating the latest inflation data in the country.According to published statistics, in December, the consumer price index rose to 2.5% yoy from 2.3% previously, but remained at 0.2% in quarterly terms, contrary to expectations of growth to 0.3%. At the same time, the overall figure for the year decreased from 2.8% to 2.4%, falling short of the projected 2.5%. Core inflation, calculated by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) using the truncated average method, also weakened – from 3.6% to 3.2% yoy with a forecast of 3.3% and from 0.8% to 0.5% for the quarter instead of the expected 0.6%. The continued slowdown in inflationary pressure strengthens the arguments in favor of the RBA's soft monetary policy, which puts pressure on the national currency. An additional negative factor for the Australian dollar was the National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index, which dropped to -2.0 points in December after -3.0 points in November, remaining significantly below the average over the past two years.Resistance levels: 0.6250, 0.6274, 0.6300, 0.6330.Support levels: 0.6225, 0.6200, 0.6178, 0.6155.Silver market analysisAfter a prolonged hold below the key level of 30.00 in the second half of the month, silver (XAG/USD) quotes strengthened to 30.40, demonstrating a confident potential for further growth.Market participants are closely following Donald Trump's first steps as president of the United States, especially his plans to impose new duties on imports of raw materials from China, Mexico and Canada. If the tariffs are approved on February 1, it will limit the supply of 62.0% of imported silver to the American market, which could trigger price increases. Additional pressure on the stock sector was exerted by the Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) model DeepSeek, which, according to the developers, is not inferior to ChatGPT, but uses cheaper processors and less data. In just a few days after launch, the app became the most popular in the American App Store, which led to a drop in the quotes of technology giants and an increase in demand for protective assets. In conditions of high market uncertainty, silver remains the most attractive of the liquid metals, significantly inferior in value to gold, platinum and palladium, which makes it a promising investment in the current macroeconomic environment.Resistance levels: 30.80, 32.50.Support levels: 29.90, 28.30.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the morning session, WTI Crude Oil showed a slight decrease, trading around 73.20, after a steady rise the day before. Despite the strengthening of the US dollar caused by Donald Trump's new statements, black gold quotes continued their upward trend. The head of the White House again outlined a tough course on tariff policy, expressing his intention to limit imports of strategically important goods, including computer chips, pharmaceutical products and steel, in order to stimulate domestic production. As early as February 1, 25.0% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico are likely to come into force, which will become part of a strategy to combat illegal migration, but the fate of trade restrictions against the EU and China remains uncertain.An additional factor for the oil market was the risks of disruptions in the supply of raw materials from Libya. According to Bloomberg, the shutdown of the key export terminals Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, through which more than 400.0 thousand barrels pass daily, could reduce the country's exports by a third. If the situation worsens further, Libya risks completely suspending production, which will lead to a loss of 1.4 million barrels per day. Regional conflicts between the internationally recognized government in the west of the country and the eastern authorities, led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, continue to destabilize the oil sector. On January 5, representatives of the Oil Crescent movement threatened to block production and exports if the state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) did not relocate the headquarters of five energy companies to the eastern region, where the main production facilities and terminals are located.Resistance levels: 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00.Support levels: 73.00, 72.15, 71.00, 70.00.

EUR/USD: European business statistics in traders' focusThe EUR/USD pair is trading in a corrective trend at 1.0461, which is supported by the weakening of the US dollar and positive statistics from the eurozone.In January, business activity in the French manufacturing sector increased from 41.9 to 45.3 points, in Germany from 42.5 to 44.1 points, and across the eurozone from 45.1 to 46.1 points. The index for the services sector also showed improvement, increasing in France from 49.3 to 48.9 points, in Germany from 51.2 to 52.5 points, and in the eurozone from 51.6 to 51.4 points. The composite indicator for the region rose from 49.6 to 50.2 points, which reinforces expectations of a possible easing of the ECB's policy, which is scheduled to meet on Thursday at 15:45 (GMT+2). Analysts have noted signs of an improvement in business sentiment, which could form the basis for a long-term economic recovery in the region.The US dollar continues to decline, trading at 107.50 in the USDX index. The weakening is due to the statements of President Donald Trump, who initiated reforms in tariff policy. Investors also paid less attention to statistics on the real estate market. In December, sales in the secondary housing market slowed from 4.8% to 2.2%, reaching 4.24 million units compared with 4.15 million a month earlier. Despite the slowdown, the indicators have remained in positive territory for the fourth month, which inspires hopes for further recovery of the sector.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0660.Support levels: 1.0430, 1.0260.USD/TRY: the Central Bank of Turkey lowered the rate to 45.00%During morning trading, the USD/TRY pair is showing growth, approaching the 36.6800 mark and trying to overcome it from above. Despite starting with a gap down, the bulls managed to almost completely compensate for the loss.Market participants expect new impulses that can support the US dollar. On Wednesday, at 21:00 (GMT+2), the US Federal Reserve will hold a meeting, at which, according to forecasts, the regulator will leave the key rate at 4.50%. However, recent statements by President Donald Trump about the need to reduce interest rates soon and the refusal to increase duties on imports from China have created additional pressure on the US currency. At the same time, starting from February 1, it is planned to increase taxes on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, which causes uncertainty among investors.The lira, in turn, continues to lose ground under the influence of internal factors. At a meeting on January 23, the Central Bank of Turkey lowered the interest rate by 250 basis points to 45.00%, reaffirming its commitment to fighting inflation, which has significantly increased the financial burden on households. The regulator announced its intention to create conditions for a gradual reduction in the basic level of consumer prices to 5.0% in the medium term. Meanwhile, in December, annual inflation dropped from 47.09% to 44.38%, but independent analysts believe that the real figures are much higher. The rise in inflation in recent years has been linked to the devaluation of the Turkish lira and the unconventional approach to economic policy pursued by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Resistance levels: 35.7250, 35.8000, 35.8800, 36.0000.Support levels: 35.6500, 35.5589, 35.4159, 35.3000.USD/CHF: recovery after weekly declineThe US currency is showing weak growth against the Swiss franc, partially recovering from an uncertain decline at the end of the previous week: the pair is testing the 0.9070 level for an upward breakout, but the dollar remains influenced by negative macroeconomic data released on Friday. In particular, the index of business activity in the service sector in January fell from 56.8 to 52.8 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than analysts' expectations at 56.5 points, while the indicator for the manufacturing sector increased from 49.4 to 50.1 points, exceeding forecasts of 49.6 points. Additionally, investors' attention was attracted by the decline in the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan from 73.2 to 71.1 points.Switzerland is expected to publish December data on foreign trade this week, which may shed light on the state of the national economy. According to previous reports, exports rose to 23.68 billion francs, while imports totaled 18.26 billion francs, which increased the trade surplus to 5.42 billion francs. These indicators reinforced positive expectations regarding the sustainability of the Swiss economy in the face of global uncertainty.Resistance levels: 0.9075, 0.9100, 0.9130, 0.9153.Support levels: 0.9037, 0.9000, 0.8957, 0.8929.GBP/USD: stochastic warns of short-term risks of overbought instrumentThe pound is retreating from the local highs of January 7, updated at the end of last week, and is now testing the 1.2445 level for a downward breakdown. Investors are waiting for the emergence of new factors that can affect the movement of quotations.Friday's data from the UK, published on January 24, provided the currency with moderate support. The S&P Global index of business activity in the services sector fell from 51.5 points to 51.2 points in January, exceeding analysts' forecasts of 50.6 points. In the manufacturing sector, the index rose from 47.0 points to 48.2 points, also exceeding expectations of 47.1 points, and the composite index increased from 50.4 points to 50.9 points with forecasts of 50.0 points.Rising inflation is once again posing a difficult choice for the Bank of England, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P. He noted that despite signs of economic stagnation and a deteriorating labor market situation that require lower borrowing costs, the regulator may face the need to control inflationary risks. The Bank of England is expected to lower the interest rate from the current 4.75% at its February 6 meeting after higher-than-forecast December inflation data. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose from 0.1% to 0.3%, and on an annual basis it slowed from 2.6% to 2.5%, which turned out to be lower than preliminary calculations. The core index excluding food and energy increased from 0.0% to 0.3%, but decreased from 3.5% to 3.2% in annual terms. Goldman Sachs analysts said that "price pressures were higher than expected," although medium-term inflation forecasts show signs of weakening. Experts predict the growth of the British economy by 0.9% in 2025, which is lower than the consensus estimate of 1.3%, and a reduction in the interest rate to 3.25% by mid-2026.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2650.Support levels: 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2359, 1.2300.

EUR/USD: the initiative has moved to the European currencyThe EUR/USD pair is moving within the corrective trend, trading at 1.0419. The European currency is supported by the weakening of the US dollar and positive data on the German economy.In December, the producer price index in Germany decreased from 0.5% to -0.1% month–on-month, and amounted to 0.8% year-on-year, which was lower than the projected 1.1% and the target range of 0.5-1.5%, which allows the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue to adhere to a soft monetary policy. The January index of current economic conditions from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) improved from -93.1 to -90.4 points, although the indicator of economic sentiment decreased from 15.7 to 10.3 points, remaining above the September low of 3.6 points. ZEW President Achim Wambach noted that subdued consumer demand and weak activity in the construction industry remain the main factors of the slowdown in the German economy. The head of the Central Bank of Croatia, Boris Vujicic, added that investors' expectations of a fourfold reduction in ECB rates look justified.The pair's movement is also influenced by the dynamics of the US dollar, which is being adjusted against the background of Donald Trump's inauguration as president and his first steps in economic policy. The USDX index dropped to 107.80 as the market was disappointed by the slow fulfillment of election promises. In particular, instead of the announced increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 40.0% from the first day of the presidency, only 10.0% are being discussed, which will take effect in two weeks.Resistance levels: 1.0460, 1.0620.Support levels: 1.0390, 1.0220.GBP/USD: market focus on employment data for November in BritainThe pound stabilized near the level of 1.2345, being near the local highs of January 9th. The GBP/USD pair maintained its upward momentum despite the publication of mixed data on the UK labor market.In December, the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 0.7 thousand after a decrease of 25.1 thousand in November, while analysts expected an increase of 10.3 thousand. The employment rate rose by 35.0 thousand, which is significantly lower than the previous increase of 173.0 thousand. According to November data from the Office of National Statistics, the annual increase in regular wages for the three-month period was 5.6%, exceeding the figure of the previous period (5.2%). The overall dynamics, including premiums, also accelerated to 5.6% from 5.2%. These data indicate continued price pressures in the economy. However, analysts expect the Bank of England to cut the rate again in February, although the pace of its reduction is likely to slow down. According to the OECD forecasts, the rate could reach 3.50% by 2026. Alan Taylor, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, noted that the regulator plans four rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of 2025, which will bring it to the level of 3.75%.On Friday, January 24, the GfK Group consumer confidence index and business activity data from S&P Global for January are expected to be published. Forecasts suggest a decrease in the confidence index from -17.0 to -18.0 points. The indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector may slightly increase from 47.0 to 47.1 points, while in the service sector it is expected to decrease from 51.1 to 50.6 points. In the United States, similar data may show a slight decrease in the index of business activity in the service sector from 56.8 to 56.6 points, while the manufacturing sector is likely to strengthen from 49.4 to 49.6 points.Resistance levels: 1.2359, 1.2400, 1.2450, 1.2500.Support levels: 1.2300, 1.2261, 1.2230, 1.2200.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is showing steady growth, trading near the 30.81 mark. Investors are carefully assessing the first steps of Donald Trump as president of the United States, which may significantly affect the silver market.One of the key points of his election program was the introduction of high import duties on goods from China, Mexico, Canada and other countries that are the main exporters of silver ore to the United States. Currently, about 21.0% of the silver consumed in the country is mined in the United States, while 44.0% comes from Mexico and 18.0% from Canada. The proposed duties, which can reach 25.0%, will affect up to 62.0% of imports and, according to preliminary data, will enter into force on February 1. Against this background, large commodity traders are beginning to reserve metal shipments for the future. According to JPMorgan Chase & Co., since the beginning of the year, borrowing rates on gold and silver contracts have increased sevenfold, and silver reserves in Comex vaults have increased by 22.0 million ounces. The growing demand has also affected the prices of investment silver. According to the U.S. Mint, the value of the Maple Leaf coin may rise from $36.0 to $45.0 by the end of the month amid an increase in the number of orders.Resistance levels: 31.30, 33.00.Support levels: 30.30, 28.70.Crude Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices showed a slight decrease in the morning session, trading around the 75.50 mark and remaining near the local lows recorded on January 10. Quotes continue the downward trend that began in the middle of last week, when they briefly approached the level of 80.00 and updated the highs of July 19.The market is under pressure from concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States. In the first hours after the inauguration, Trump announced major changes in the country's energy policy. In particular, he lifted restrictions on the development of deposits in coastal areas imposed by the previous administration of Joe Biden, and called for an increase in production at existing fields. In addition, the president signed a declaration on the emergency situation in the energy sector, which is aimed at attracting investments in resource extraction and increasing strategic oil reserves in the United States.Additional pressure on the price of oil is exerted by information from the Kuwait National Petroleum Corporation (KPC) about the new large Al-Jley'a field located offshore the Persian Gulf. According to preliminary data, the field's reserves may reach 800 million barrels of oil and natural gas, which increases concerns about an oversaturation of the market.Resistance levels: 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 79.33.Support levels: 75.00, 74.00, 73.00, 72.17.