AUD/USD: the deterioration of trends in the Australian real estate market continues
Before the close of the weekly session, the AUD/USD pair shows moderate growth, reflecting the local weakening of the US dollar and the desire to gain a foothold above the 0.6595 level.
The latest data from the real estate sector is a deterrent for the Australian dollar. December showed a decrease in the issuance of construction permits by 9.5%, indicating an annual decrease in activity by 2%. In particular, the decline in permits for the construction of private houses amounted to -0.5%, reflecting a decrease in interest in housing, confirmed by a drop in the issuance of housing loans by -5.6% and a decrease in investment in construction by -1.3%.
The US dollar did not show the expected strengthening yesterday, ending the day at 102.800 on the USDX index, which was the first case of a decline below 103.000 since last week. The reason was negative employment statistics in the United States, including an increase in initial applications for unemployment benefits and an increase in the total number of applications for help.
Today, traders are cautious, waiting for the publication of the January report on the US labor market, which may confirm the trend towards lower average hourly wages and higher unemployment, which affects the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy.
- Resistance levels: 0.6620, 0.6720.
- Support levels: 0.6560, 0.6460.
USD/TRY: Turkey introduces measures to support savings in lira
In the Asian session, USD/TRY showed growth, approaching 30.4500 after updating weekly highs to 30.6267 against the background of statements by the US Federal Reserve System. The Fed left the key rate at 5.5%, cooling market expectations of an early easing of monetary policy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the need to further confirm the reduction in inflation to the target level of 2.0% before changing the policy course.
The US dollar came under pressure due to data from the labor market, where the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased, contradicting forecasts of a decline. Investors are refraining from opening new positions ahead of the publication of the US labor market report for January, anticipating a possible increase in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in average wage growth.
Meanwhile, Turkey's central bank recently increased the rate to 45% in an effort to contain inflation, which reached 65% in December. In response to economic challenges, the bank has introduced new measures to strengthen the lira, including increasing reserve requirements for foreign currency deposits and increasing the cost of maintaining client accounts in foreign currencies for banks.
- Resistance levels: 30.4526, 30.5500, 30.6500, 30.7500.
- Support levels: 30.3146, 30.2000, 30.1000, 29.9729.
USD/CHF: Dollar stabilizes ahead of US Labor Market report
The USD/CHF currency pair shows mixed activity, remaining near the 0.8570 level, with the prospect of ending the week with a slight drop. Despite the lull among investors ahead of the release of the US labor market report for January today.
The average hourly wage is expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.3% in January, while the annual rate should remain at 4.1%. Preliminary forecasts also indicate a possible increase in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.8%, and the pace of job creation in the US economy outside the agricultural sector is likely to decrease from 216.0 thousand to 180.0 thousand. It is assumed that these data will have little effect on changes in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, given recent statements about the need for further evidence of a reduction in inflation to the target level of 2.0% before any change in the exchange rate. Meanwhile, the market continues to hope for an interest rate adjustment in March and June, and also analyzes recent unemployment statistics, with an increase in the number of initial applications for unemployment assistance in the week to January 26 from 215.0 thousand. to 224.0 thousand, exceeding analysts' expectations by 212.0 thousand, and an increase in the number of repeat applications in the week to January 19 from 1.828 million to 1.898 million, contrary to the forecast of 1.840 million.
- Resistance levels: 0.8600, 0.8630, 0.8665, 0.8700.
- Support levels: 0.8553, 0.8500, 0.8450, 0.8400.
Crude Oil market analysis
The cost of WTI Crude Oil is experiencing a drop, being at the level of $ 74 per barrel.
Oil price volatility continues against the background of increasing geopolitical tensions: the growing conflict between the Houthis of Yemen and the coalition of naval forces, whose goal is to protect peaceful navigation in the Red Sea. Bloomberg reports indicate a 50% decrease in tanker traffic through the Suez Canal, while the volume of maritime traffic around the Cape of Good Hope remains unchanged. This situation causes delays in delivery, affecting the increase in prices of goods. Experts cannot yet predict the impact of these events on oil supplies to the European Union, but there are suggestions of a potential shortage, given the rise in diesel prices above $ 1,000 per ton. At the same time, Russian oil transportation is experiencing lower risks. According to an analysis from Vortexa Ltd., despite the decline in shipments through the Red Sea since December, the last week showed that volumes are still 20% higher than the average for 2023. The representative of the Houthis, Muhammad Ali al-Buheiti, in an interview with RTL and N-tv, stressed that ships from Russia, China, and Germany are not targets for their actions.
- Resistance levels: 75.40, 79.10.
- Support levels: 72.70, 68.50.