NZD/USD: pair's attempt to break through the 0.6100 level up
The NZD/USD currency pair is showing uncertainty at 0.6100, with traders waiting for today's economic reports from the US before deciding on new deals.
Particular attention is paid to the January statistics on manufacturing inflation in the United States, which will complement the recently published data on consumer price inflation. The consumer price index for January showed a slowdown from 3.4% to 3.1% per annum, exceeding expectations at 2.9%, while the monthly index increased from 0.2% to 0.3%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained at 3.9%, contrary to the forecast of 3.7%. These data led to a revision of expectations for a reduction in Federal Reserve rates, supporting the US dollar. Meanwhile, previous economic data dampened market optimism, with January retail sales falling 0.8% after rising 0.4% in December, which was significantly worse than the expected 0.1% decrease.
- Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158, 0.6192.
- Support levels: 0.6060, 0.6030, 0.6000, 0.5950.
USD/TRY: new head of the Central Bank of Turkey supports strict policy
In the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows active growth, striving to overcome the 30.8000 level, approaching the next key mark of 31.0000.
The Turkish lira is under increasing pressure due to internal economic challenges, while the decisive position of the Central Bank of Turkey has failed to support the currency. The market's attention is focused on the actions of the new chairman Fatih Karakhan, who replaced Hafiz Gaye Ercan, who failed to cope with the task of reducing inflation. During her tenure, the key rate was adjusted eight times, the last time to 45% on January 25, but inflation accelerated from 47% to 64.86%. These measures proved insufficient to stabilize the economic situation against the background of high consumer demand and an increase in the minimum wage, which was increased by 34% in July and by 49% at the beginning of this year. Karakhan confirmed his intention to continue strict monetary policy with worsening inflation forecasts expected at 36% by the end of the year, 14% by the end of 2025 and 9% in 2026. He predicts a peak in price pressure in May, followed by a slowdown in the second half of the year.
- Resistance levels: 30.8100, 30.9188, 31.0000, 31.1000.
- Support levels: 30.7230, 30.6500, 30.5500, 30.4526.
GBP/USD: British economy has entered a state of technical recession
The GBP/USD trading instrument is retreating, approaching 1.2580 downwards, against the background of stable USD dynamics.
The report on the British economy for the fourth quarter confirmed the entry into a technical recession: GDP for December fell by 0.1% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, leading to a decrease in the quarterly figure from -0.1% to -0.3%, against an increase of 0.2% a year earlier. Despite this, some economic sectors are showing signs of recovery: December industrial production increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Today's data showed an increase in retail sales in January from -3.3% to 3.4% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the forecast of 1.5%, and from -2.4% to 0.7% year-on-year, contrary to expectations of a decline to -1.4%, which contributed to the support of the pound.
- Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2800.
- Support levels: 1.2530, 1.2380.
Crude Oil market analysis
Brent oil prices are showing stability, hovering around $82.30 per barrel. Prices jumped yesterday, responding to American economic statistics.
However, this week, the growth of oil reserves in the United States has brought instability to market sentiment. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that in the week ended February 9, inventories increased by 12.018 million barrels to 439.5 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts, which expected an increase of 2.56 million barrels. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its expectations for oil demand for the current year, predicting a decrease to 1.22 million tons. barrels per day from previous estimates of 1.24 million, while predicting a greater increase in supply by 1.7 million barrels per day, indicating a potential oversupply compared to expectations of 1.5 million barrels.
- Resistance levels: 83.14, 83.89, 84.64, 85.52.
- Support levels: 82.00, 81.00, 80.00, 79.12.