EURUSD: low gas prices are strengthening the euro
The EURUSD trading instrument is trading at the price level of 1.0645.
Positive correction has consolidated the initiative because of the decrease in the quotations of "blue" fuel on the stock markets. Thus, the end of the previous week's final data from the Dutch gas hub TTF displayed a break down of the price threshold of USD 1.0 thousand per thousand cubic meters, renewing the figure of early 2022, and the price threshold of supply deals for February was 930.00, renewing the January level, before the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. Blue fuel quotes are influenced by several factors: first of all - weather conditions, as there are no hard frosts in Europe and the agreement between the alliance member states to introduce the wholesale price cap on the resource at EUR 180.00 per megawatt-hour, in case of three-day costs above this mark, starting from February 15. Now the euro zone countries have the opportunity to fill up the reserves to the limit and sign contracts for the long term to 2023, in addition, there is room to reorient the gas systems to the injection of liquefied natural gas (LNG). For example, the day before Germany announced the launch of its first floating LNG terminal, two more are planned, and the daily supply volume was 10.0 million cubic meters, which is 16 times lower than the Nord Stream GTS.
- Resistance levels: 1.0720, 1.0930.
- Support levels: 1.0570, 1.0390.
AUDUSD: rising commodity prices support the pair.
"Bears" failed to overcome the support threshold of 0.6670 and the AUDUSD instrument turned to the upward dynamics, renewing the December high at 0.6900. The Australian currency was stimulated by the weakened US dollar, which was under the pressure of the risk of recession in the national economy in the next year due to the regular tightening of monetary parameters by the US Federal Reserve System to overcome the growth in consumer prices.
Additional stimulus for the Australian currency was received amid growing commodity prices and a bearish trend among precious metals. So, over the past few trading weeks crude oil WTI has gained 10.5% in price, and gold strengthened at a lower rate, but over the past month the asset has improved by 2.5%, leaving the advantage to the "bulls".
- Resistance levels are at 0.6900 and 0.7000.
- Support levels: 0.6670, 0.6585 and 0.6500.
Oil market analysis
The price of benchmark Brent crude oil managed to correct slightly above the resistance level of 85.00, where it is being held due to risks of resource deficit in the markets in case Russia cuts off supplies to the EU, G7 and Australia, after it keeps the upper limit of 60.00.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that by the end of this year, a mechanism will be developed and put into effect to prohibit Russian legal entities from supplying oil at the established price cap. Moreover, the political leadership of Moscow agrees to reduce production capacity in 2023 by 500,000-700,000 barrels per day, or 5-7% of the current level. Earlier, the Russian government had already said that the Russian Federation intends to enter into new crude supply contracts, giving priority to eastern markets, making logistical adjustments that will serve to gradually restore demand for the energy carrier.
- Support levels: 82.40, 76.70.
- Resistance levels: 87.10, 92.00.
Cryptocurrency market analysis
At the end of the previous week, BTC stabilized at the level of 16800.00, at which it is now.
Analysts are trying to foresee the prospects of the first cryptocurrency and the market in general for the next year, but estimates are different, as the wing of optimists believe that quotes have found the "bottom" and will be able to return the upward dynamics, and the wing of skeptics forecasts the continuation of the current price level or the strengthening of negative trends. Thus, experts from JPMorgan Chase & Co. argue that the fall of the FTX exchange deprived electronic assets of attractiveness for a long period and the prospects of the market segment have become uncertain. Moreover, the existing precedent will lead to a strengthening of control by the world regulators over the digital industry. Already in the present the largest crypto-exchange Binance came under pressure from the audit bodies in the U.S., where an investigation was initiated into the legality of services, in addition, the French authorities accuse the management team of the site of misleading advertising campaign. Most likely, the level of pressure on exchanges and their clients will only increase throughout 2023, leading key tokens to the fall.
- Resistance levels: 17100.00, 17830.00, 18750.00.
- Support levels: 16250.00, 15700.00, 15000.00.