Forex analytical forecast for today, October 25, for AUD/USD, USD/JPY, Brent oil & Gold

EUR/USD: US duties will cut eurozone GDP by 0.3% — LagardeThe single European currency demonstrates multidirectional dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian trading session, holding near the level of 1.0825. The EUR/USD currency pair is trying to recover after falling to the lows of March 10, recorded at the end of last week, but market participants still prefer a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for new fundamental signals that can set the vector of movement of quotations.Meanwhile, the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, during a speech in the European Parliament, said that the 25 percent trade duties imposed by the United States could slow down the eurozone's GDP growth rate by 0.3% during the first year of their effect. In addition, potential retaliatory steps by the EU could lead to an additional 0.2% decrease, and the overall effect could be an acceleration of inflation by 0.5 percentage points. Lagarde stressed that the current data on consumer prices are within the framework of forecasts, but the continuing uncertainty amid the changing foreign trade policy of the United States poses a serious risk to the economic recovery in the region. According to her, the eurozone's GDP grew by 0.9% by the end of 2024, which is almost twice as high as the 0.4% increase in 2023, but the growth rate slowed in the fourth quarter, and the beginning of 2025 shows no clear signs of acceleration. Of particular concern is the continued decline in industrial production and weak investment activity, despite some improvement in business surveys.Additional attention will be focused on American macroeconomic statistics today. At 15:45 (GMT+2), S&P Global will publish preliminary business activity indices for March: the manufacturing index is expected to decline from 52.7 points to 51.9, while the services index, on the contrary, will show a slight positive trend, rising from 51.0 to 51.2 points.Resistance levels: 1.0839, 1.0870, 1.0900, 1.0954.Support levels: 1.0800, 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700.USD/CHF: sideways movement persistsAfter reaching the lows of December 6 last week, the USD/CHF pair is showing a corrective recovery, holding near the 0.8835 mark, waiting for new fundamental signals to appear. Market activity remains moderate: bidders are turning their attention to upcoming publications of macroeconomic statistics, which can set the vector for further movement.Today at 11:00 (GMT+2), the focus will be on preliminary data on business activity indices in the eurozone for March. The indicator in the service sector is expected to rise from 50.6 to 51.0 points, and in the manufacturing industry — from 47.6 to 48.0 points. As for the region's key economy, Germany, the corresponding indicators are expected to grow to 51.4 and 47.7 points, respectively. Later, at 15:45 (GMT+2), the United States will publish its own S&P Global indices: in the manufacturing sector, analysts predict a slowdown from 52.7 to 51.9 points, while in the service sector there may be a slight acceleration from 51.0 to 51.2 points.On Wednesday, additional interest will be aroused by figures from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) on sentiment in the eurozone: last month, the index fell sharply from 17.7 to 3.4 points, disappointing market participants. The series of important publications will be completed by the report of the National Bank of Switzerland, which will present its quarterly economic review at 14:00 (GMT+2). Investors expect signals regarding the future course of monetary policy against the background of the latest rate cut to 0.25%.Resistance levels: 0.8863, 0.8900, 0.8929, 0.8952.Support levels: 0.8827, 0.8800, 0.8780, 0.8755.USD/CAD: Canada to hold snap elections on April 28The USD/CAD pair continues its corrective movement, holding near the 1.4346 mark against the background of the absence of strong fundamental or macroeconomic signals capable of setting a clear vector of movement.A key political event that had an impact on the market was the announcement by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of early parliamentary elections scheduled for April 28. According to him, this step is due to the need to respond promptly to the economic challenges that have arisen after the United States imposed 25 percent duties on a number of industrial goods, including steel and aluminum. In response, the Canadian government has stepped up retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. products. Speaking to the press, Carney stressed that Canada intends to defend national sovereignty and will not allow political pressure to destroy the foundations of independence, but expressed his willingness to engage in dialogue with Washington, provided that the principles of mutual respect and willingness to discuss trade rules on equal terms are respected.From an economic point of view, the situation remains difficult. According to the latest statistics, retail sales in January decreased from 2.6% to -0.6%, and in February the decline continued, reaching -0.4%. Although the base indicator remained in the positive zone, it decreased significantly from 2.9% to 0.2%, which may indicate a slowdown in domestic demand amid growing trade tensions and political uncertainty.Resistance levels: 1.4380, 1.4540.Support levels: 1.4310, 1.4150.USD/JPY: US currency is trying to recoverThe US dollar is showing steady strengthening in the USD/JPY pair during Asian trading, continuing the upward correction that began on March 11. The instrument came close to the level of 149.80, trying to overcome it upwards and updating minor local highs recorded on March 19. The dollar is supported by investors' continued interest in the US currency amid expectations of further Fed actions, while the Japanese yen is under pressure due to conflicting macroeconomic data.The last meeting of the Bank of Japan was held unchanged: the rate remained at 0.50%, and the head of the regulator, Kazuo Ueda, pointed to the continuing uncertainty preventing the transition to further rate hikes. At the same time, the regulator's management is still counting on increased inflationary pressure, which is facilitated by the recovery of domestic demand and rising wages. Against this background, the Japanese Federation of Trade Unions Rengo announced that it had reached an agreement with businesses on an average 5.4% increase in wages, a record for the past 34 years. This factor may accelerate consumer inflation, which, in turn, will increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will revise monetary policy parameters at its meeting in May. However, if the geopolitical and foreign trade instability increases, the regulator may postpone the tightening until July.At the same time, inflation data published on Friday in Japan showed a decrease in the annual consumer price index from 4.0% to 3.7%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose slightly from 2.5% to 2.6%. Weak business activity statistics put further pressure on the yen: the manufacturing sector index from Jibun Bank fell from 49.0 to 48.3 points in March, and the services sector fell below 50.0 points for the first time in a long time, falling from 53.7 to 49.5, indicating a cooling of economic activity in the country.Resistance levels: 150.00, 150.50, 150.92, 151.50.Support levels: 149.09, 148.55, 148.00, 147.00.

EUR/USD: Bundestag supports expansion of defense budgetThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/USD pair during Asian trading, correcting from yesterday's local highs. The instrument is testing the 1.0928 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for new fundamental factors to appear that can set the direction of price movement.The key event of today will be the publication of February inflation data in the eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+2). The core consumer price index is expected to remain at the same level of 2.6% in annual terms and 0.6% on a monthly basis, while the harmonized index will maintain values of 2.4% and 0.5%, respectively. In the meantime, traders are analyzing data on business sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) published the day before: the German economic expectations index increased from 26.0 points to 51.6 points in March, significantly exceeding forecasts of 48.1 points. However, the index of assessment of the current economic situation decreased from -88.5 points to -87.6 points, which is worse than the expected value of -80.5 points. The same indicator for the eurozone rose from 24.2 points to 39.8 points, which only slightly exceeded the consensus forecast of analysts (39.6 points).Additional support for the euro was provided by the approval by the Bundestag of a bill on a significant increase in the national debt to finance defense and infrastructure spending: 513 deputies voted for it, 207 against it. The document is aimed at stimulating the German economy, which is under serious pressure due to high energy prices and increased competition from the United States and China. ECB Board member Olli Rehn noted that the tough trade policy of the White House has already negatively affected the growth of the European economy, but increasing domestic investment may become a driver of its recovery. At the same time, the EU member states of NATO will have to additionally allocate over 500 billion euros annually to meet Washington's requirements to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.Resistance levels: 1.0954, 1.1000, 1.1050, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0900, 1.0871, 1.0838, 1.0800.USD/CHF: economists are confident of reducing the SNB rate to 0.25%After two days of active decline, during which the USD/CHF pair updated its minimum levels since March 10, the instrument demonstrates a moderate correction in morning trading, testing the 0.8770 mark for a downward breakdown. Investors remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, the outcome of which may become a key driver for further price movements.On Thursday at 09:00 (GMT+2), Switzerland will publish foreign trade data for February: in the previous month, exports increased to 24.45 billion francs, imports to 18.33 billion francs, and the trade surplus amounted to 6.12 billion francs. A meeting of the Swiss National Bank (NBS) will be held at 10:30 (GMT+2), and according to a Reuters poll, 90% of 32 analysts predict an interest rate cut to 0.25%, where it is likely to remain at least until 2026. This step is due to the fact that inflation in the country reached a four-year low of 0.3% in February, which confirms control over price pressure. However, the weakening of the franc in recent months poses risks of a repeat increase in inflation in the foreseeable future.Resistance levels: 0.8800, 0.8827, 0.8863, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8758, 0.8730, 0.8700, 0.8669.GBP/USD: traders don't expect surprises from the Fed and the Bank of EnglandThe GBP/USD pair is correcting near the 1.2986 mark, receiving support against the background of the weakening of the US currency.The pound is showing a neutral movement ahead of the Bank of England meeting, which will be held tomorrow at 14:00 (GMT+2): most analysts expect the interest rate to remain at 4.50%, despite attempts by representatives of the regulator Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra to achieve a more aggressive reduction of 25 basis points. At 09:00 (GMT+2), market participants will pay attention to the January employment data, however, according to preliminary forecasts, they will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the pound.The US dollar is trading at 103.00 in USDX, trying to break down the key level for the first time since October. Today, investors' main attention is focused on the US Federal Reserve meeting, the decision of which will be announced at 20:00 (GMT+2): the probability of maintaining the rate in the range of 4.25–4.50% is estimated by the CME FedWatch Tool at 99.0%. Market confidence in the immutability of monetary policy parameters increased yesterday after the release of data on the real estate market: the volume of new home construction in February increased sharply from 1,350 million to 1,501 million, reaching a maximum over the past 13 months and confirming the recovery of the construction sector.Resistance levels: 1.3030, 1.3180.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2770.Crude Oil market analysisThe price of Brent Crude Oil is moving in an upward trend, staying below the level of 70.00, due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and the intensification of trade disputes between the United States and its key partners. On Tuesday, the Israeli army again attacked positions of the Palestinian Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, and the US armed forces attacked targets of the Yemeni Houthis. At the same time, President Donald Trump made a statement in which he blamed Iran for supporting this armed group.At the same time, investors are monitoring data on fuel reserves, which, according to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), increased from 4,247 million barrels to 4,593 million barrels, which may affect further market dynamics. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2): preliminary forecasts suggest an increase in reserves from -1.448 million to 0.800 million barrels. If official statistics confirm an increase in storage volumes, oil may come under pressure amid fears of a slowdown in demand.Resistance levels: 70.90, 76.10.Support levels: 68.70, 65.00.

EUR/GBP: the pair ends the trading week in the red zoneThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/GBP pair during morning trading, continuing the steady downward trend that began on Wednesday, when quotes finally moved away from the local peaks reached on January 24.Despite the steady "bearish" mood, the macroeconomic statistics of the eurozone remains quite stable and provides some support to the euro. In annual terms, industrial production showed zero dynamics after a 1.5% decline in December, exceeding analysts' expectations of -0.9%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 0.8% after a decrease of 0.4% a month earlier, which also exceeded forecasts of 0.6%. A particularly noticeable increase was recorded in Germany, where production increased by 2.0% in January after a 1.5% decline in December.However, the pressure on the single currency is increasing due to doubts about the stability of the region's economy. Earlier, the euro received support against the background of announced large-scale investments in the rearmament of Europe and the creation of a 500.0 billion euro fund in Germany for infrastructure and defense projects. However, not all EU countries approve of such a significant increase in military spending, which may weaken the positive effect of these initiatives. An additional risk for the euro remains foreign trade factors: investors are concerned about the prospects of new US duties imposed by the administration of Donald Trump, as well as a possible escalation of trade disputes between the US and the EU.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419, 0.8437.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8355, 0.8340, 0.8326.USD/CAD: dollar maintains weak upward momentumThe US dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the USD/CAD pair during morning trading, consolidating at 1.4433: previously, the instrument's active growth was due to the publication of strong data on the US labor market.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which decided on March 12 to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the lowest level since September 2022. The regulator's officials noted that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, but warned of a possible slowdown amid global trade tensions caused by new tariff restrictions from the United States.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), statistics on manufacturing sales in Canada will be released: analysts expect an increase of 2.0% after an increase of 0.3% a month earlier, and wholesale sales may recover by 1.9% after a decrease of 0.2% in December.Resistance levels: 1.4451, 1.4472, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.USD/TRY: dollar reaches historic peak againThe USD/TRY exchange rate is showing mixed dynamics near the 36.6790 mark, as market participants monitor US trade policy, negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the latest data on inflation in the United States.The February statistics reflected a slowdown in the core consumer price index from 3.3% to 3.1% year-on-year, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 3.2%, as well as a weakening of the monthly index from 0.4% to 0.2%. Inflation in the manufacturing sector also decreased: the core producer price index dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%, and the overall indicator dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%, which increased expectations of an early easing of the Fed's policy, although the rate is likely to remain unchanged until June.The Central Bank of Turkey, for its part, continues to adjust monetary policy to reduce inflationary pressure: in March, the regulator lowered the rate from 45.00% to 42.50%, hoping to achieve a reduction in inflation to 24.00% by the end of the year. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics, consumer prices have already slowed from 42.12% to 39.05% in February, which confirms the trend towards gradual stabilization.Resistance levels: 36.7100, 36.7886, 36.8500, 36.9000.Support levels: 36.6500, 36.6000, 36.5406, 36.5000.AUD/USD: the pair is consolidating without an obvious trendAgainst the background of weak volatility of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, trading around 0.6290 as part of an upward correction.The Australian currency remains under pressure, but positive data from the real estate market temporarily supports its position. In January, the total number of approved construction permits increased by 6.3% to 16,597 thousand in monthly terms and by 21.7% year-on-year. In the private sector, the number of new homes increased by 1.1% to 9,042 thousand on a monthly basis and by 8.9% over the year, while the number of private buildings not related to residential real estate increased by 12.7% to 7,213 thousand per month and by 41.6% per year. The cost of the entire development increased by 4.5%, reaching 9.04 billion Australian dollars, but the non-residential segment showed a decrease of 20.7% to 5.69 billion Australian dollars.Support levels: 0.6260, 0.6140.Resistance levels: 0.6320, 0.6450.

GBP/USD: lower inflation in the US supports the poundThe pound sterling is strengthening in the GBP/USD pair, correcting against the background of the weakening of the US dollar and trading near the 1.2960 mark.Additional support for the British currency is provided by macroeconomic factors: tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), UK GDP data is expected to be published. Experts predict a decrease in growth rates from 0.4% to 0.1% in monthly terms and a weakening from 1.5% in annual terms, which may strengthen the dovish mood of the Bank of England before the March 20 meeting. In addition, the regulator expanded its support for the banking sector, replacing weekly financing with semi—annual financing and allocating a record 2,127 trillion pounds as part of the REPO operation, the maximum amount since 2020.The US dollar is trying to regain its position, trading around 103.50 on the USDX index. The main focus of investors is yesterday's report on inflation in the United States: the consumer price index in February slowed from 0.4% to 0.2% in monthly terms and from 3.0% to 2.8% in annual terms, while the base indicator decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%. This dynamic reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve System (FRS) will keep the rate at 4.25–4.50% at its meeting next week.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3180.Support levels: 1.2920, 1.2760.USD/CHF: the pair maintains a sideways trendThe US dollar shows mixed dynamics in the USD/CHF pair during the Asian session, holding near the level of 0.8815: the activity of market participants remains low, despite the data on inflation in the United States published the day before.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), investors will focus on inflation in the US manufacturing sector: according to forecasts, the annual producer price index for February will slow down from 3.5% to 3.3%, and the monthly indicator will decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. At the same time, the base index excluding food and energy resources is likely to remain at 3.6% in annual terms and 0.3% on a monthly basis. The markets also expect data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits: initial applications for the week ending March 7 may increase from 221.0 thousand to 225.0 thousand, and repeat applications (for the week of February 28) may increase from 1,897 million to 1,900 million. On Friday at 16:00 (GMT+2), the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for March will be published: experts expect a decrease from 64.7 to 63.4 points.In Switzerland, February data on producer and import price indices will be released at 09:30 (GMT+2): a moderate monthly increase is expected from 0.1% to 0.2%, and an annual fix at -0.3%. Probably, these indicators will not have a significant impact on the future steps of the Swiss National Bank in the field of monetary policy.Resistance levels: 0.8827, 0.8851, 0.8875, 0.8900.Support levels: 0.8800, 0.8776, 0.8758, 0.8730.USD/JPY: Dollar decline is gaining momentumThe US dollar is showing a decline in the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session, correcting positions after two days of growth, which allowed updating local highs from March 6. At the moment, quotes are testing the 147.85 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants expect new macroeconomic triggers to appear.Investors in Japan continue to analyze the revised gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2024, published the day before. According to updated estimates, the indicator increased by only 0.6% in quarterly terms instead of the expected 0.7%, and the annual dynamics was adjusted from 2.8% to 2.2%. The slowdown in economic growth creates additional challenges for the Bank of Japan, which is considering a tougher monetary policy, but faces risks related to the instability of the national economy.Resistance levels: 148.55, 149.19, 150.00, 150.50.Support levels: 148.00, 147.00, 146.00, 145.00.Crude Oil market analysisBrent Crude Oil prices continue to move in a downward trend, holding slightly above the level of $ 70.00 per barrel.In the middle of the week, the market showed a slight increase against the background of the publication of reports on fuel reserves in the United States, but the general vector of movement is determined by the statements of OPEC + about plans to gradually increase production. According to February data, the countries participating in the agreement, with the exception of states exempt from quotas, increased production by 313.0 thousand barrels per day, bringing it to 35.5 million barrels per day. This exceeds the originally planned volumes by 67.0 thousand barrels, and the main increase occurred in Iraq (130.0 thousand barrels per day), Nigeria (60.0 thousand) and Gabon (50.0 thousand).Data on oil reserves in the United States turned out to be higher than analysts' expectations. The American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded an increase in reserves of 4.247 million barrels after a decrease of 1.455 million barrels a week earlier. In turn, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in inventories by 3.614 million barrels, compared with 1.448 million barrels a week earlier.Resistance levels: 71.20, 74.80.Support levels: 68.80, 64.70.

EUR/USD: technical analysis indicates continued growthThe EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, trading near the 1.0902 mark against the background of the weakening of the US dollar. Investors reacted positively to the results of the meeting between representatives of the United States and Ukraine, seeing them as a possible step towards resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but macroeconomic statistics turned out to be ambiguous and could not become a strong driver of price growth.Thus, German imports in January showed a slowdown from 1.6% to 1.2%, while exports moved to negative dynamics, falling from 2.5% to -2.5%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 20.7 billion euros to 16.0 billion euros. At the same time, industrial production accelerated from -1.5% to 2.0% in monthly terms and from -2.26% to -1.49% in annual terms over the same period. The head of the German Federal Bank, Joachim Nagel, expressed support for the initiatives of the future government aimed at easing budget constraints and creating a special fund in the amount of 500.0 billion euros to finance defense and infrastructure projects. At the same time, he stressed that for Germany's long-term economic growth, it is necessary to focus on increasing the supply of labor, reforming the energy sector, reducing bureaucratic barriers and reducing tax pressure on businesses.Resistance levels: 1.0950, 1.1110.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0680.AUD/USD: Australian dollar is holding at 0.6270After rising by 1.44% over the past week, the AUD/USD pair is consolidating at the 0.6270 support, awaiting the February US inflation data, which will be released today at 14:30 (GMT+2).Forecasts suggest that the consumer price index will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, which may increase pressure on the US dollar if the Fed signals a softer monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at the level of March 19 is 97.0%, and its reduction by 25 basis points in May is 40.9%.On Thursday at 02:30 (GMT+2), Australia will publish data on building permits for January: an increase of 6.3% on a monthly basis is expected, which may support the Australian currency. If the indicator is confirmed, it will be a signal of economic recovery after a prolonged recession since the end of 2023.Resistance levels: 0.6370, 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6270, 0.6147.Silver market analysisAfter a short-term consolidation below the 32.00 mark, the XAG/USD pair resumed its growth, which is due to the unique structure of demand for silver. Unlike platinum and palladium, this metal is in demand both in industry and among investors, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in market sentiment. An additional support factor was the growth in the number of Silver Institute participants: seven new companies joined the organization in 2024, and three more in the first two months of 2025, including Skeena Gold & Silver, Silver Tiger Metals, and TCA S.p.A.Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) confirms the increased interest in silver. In recent reporting periods, the number of manufacturers' long positions increased by 0.453 thousand, while sellers reduced volumes by 8,192 thousand contracts. The balance in the segment of positions secured by real capital remains on the side of the bulls — 47,823 thousand against 13,620 thousand for the bears, which indicates a high level of confidence in the asset.Resistance levels: 33.10, 34.80.Support levels: 32.30, 30.80.Crude Oil market analysisIn the morning trading, WTI Crude Oil continues to strengthen, developing the growth momentum that was formed the day before, and is testing the 66.30 level for an upward breakout. However, traders remain cautious, preferring to wait for the publication of US inflation data at 14:30 (GMT+2), which may affect the dynamics of quotations.According to preliminary forecasts, the core consumer price index for February will slow down to 3.2% in annual terms (against 3.3% earlier) and 0.3% on a monthly basis (from 0.4%), while the overall index will decrease from 3.0% to 2.9% and from 0.5% to 0.3%, respectively. Nevertheless, the dollar's reaction may be restrained, as investors are more focused on the trade policy of the Donald Trump administration. This month, 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% tariffs on a number of Chinese goods, have already entered into force, and new restrictions on steel and aluminum supplies to the United States are expected in the near future.Additional pressure on the market was exerted by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed an increase in oil reserves by 4.247 million barrels for the week of March 7 after a previous decrease of 1.455 million barrels, while experts predicted an increase of only 2.1 million barrels. At 15:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released, which, according to forecasts, will also reflect an increase in reserves by 2.1 million barrels after a previous increase of 3.614 million barrels. Additionally, the agency adjusted the forecast of oil production in 2025, increasing it by 20 thousand. barrels per day — up to 13.61 million barrels.Resistance levels: 67.00, 67.50, 68.25, 69.00.Support levels: 66.00, 64.96, 64.00, 63.00.

EUR/USD: ECB cut the rate by a quarter of a percentThe EUR/USD pair is moving in a corrective trend at 1.0807, showing the most significant weekly growth since November 2022.The main driver of the strengthening of the European currency was the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to ease monetary policy. The deposit rate was lowered to 2.50%, and the key interest rate dropped from 2.90% to 2.65%, which was a reaction to the easing of inflationary pressures. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that these measures are aimed at stimulating economic growth, but did not rule out that in April the regulator may take a pause in changing rates due to the uncertainty of the foreign trade policy of the administration of US President Donald Trump.Additional support for the single currency is provided by the prospects of increased government spending on defense and infrastructure projects, which, according to experts, can stimulate economic growth in the eurozone. Nevertheless, such measures may increase inflationary pressures. The European Commission has already presented a program providing loans for 150 billion euros to finance defense initiatives in EU countries.Resistance levels: 1.0850, 1.0970.Support levels: 1.0780, 1.0600.GBP/USD: traders' attention is focused on the labor market in the United StatesThe pound sterling shows mixed dynamics in the GBP/USD pair during morning trading, remaining near the local highs of November 11 and testing the 1.2880 level for a downward breakdown. Investors are being cautious in anticipation of the emergence of new factors that could set the direction for the movement of quotations.The key event of the day will be the publication of the February report on the US labor market at 15:30 (GMT+2). Analysts expect an increase in the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector from 143.0 thousand to 160.0 thousand, while the average hourly wage is likely to maintain annual growth at 4.1%, but in monthly terms may slow down from 0.5% to 0.3%. Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.0%. On Wednesday, ADP has already published data on employment in the private sector, which disappointed the markets with a sharp drop from 186.0 thousand to 77.0 thousand. The statistics on applications for unemployment benefits received yesterday turned out to be contradictory: initial applications decreased to 221.0 thousand with a forecast of 235.0 thousand, and repeat applications increased to 1.897 million against expectations of 1.880 million.Hugh Pill, an economist at the Bank of England, expressed doubt about the possibility of a significant reduction in interest rates in the future, given persistent inflation. According to him, monetary policy should remain restrained in the face of uncertainty caused by the tariff policy of US President Donald Trump, fluctuations in energy prices and plans to index taxes in the new UK budget. The Bank of England survey results showed that business inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased from 3.0% to 3.1%, and companies plan to raise prices for goods and services by 4.0%, higher than previous forecasts of 3.9%.Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.2948, 1.3000, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2847, 1.2800, 1.2747, 1.2690.USD/CAD: Canada appealed to the WTO because of Washington's dutiesDuring Asian trading, the USD/CAD pair is showing recovery after three days of decline, during which quotes reached their lowest values since February 24. Currently, the instrument is testing the 1.4300 level, while market participants expect new factors to appear that can set the direction of movement.The Canadian authorities have contacted the World Trade Organization (WTO) with a request for consultations on the issue of trade duties imposed by the United States: 25.0% on non—energy goods and 10.0% on energy. US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau held telephone talks after Ottawa announced retaliatory tariffs on American goods worth 155.0 billion Canadian dollars (107.4 billion US dollars). Earlier, Trudeau said that Washington's actions are aimed at undermining the country's economy and could lead to its "absorption," adding that Canada "will never become the 51st state." According to the latest data, some goods, including automotive products, will be subject to new duties only in a month, which will allow Ottawa to temporarily refrain from introducing the second part of retaliatory measures.Resistance levels: 1.4350, 1.4400, 1.4435, 1.4471.Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4250, 1.4200, 1.4145.USDX: US dollar index shows the most powerful bearish trend in monthsThe US dollar index (USDX) shows a slight decline in morning trading, continuing the most powerful "bearish" trend of recent months, formed since the beginning of the week. Quotes are again testing the 104.00 level for a downward breakdown, while the index managed to update the lows from November 5 the day before. The decline in the USDX exchange rate is due to several factors. First of all, the growth of the European currency was spurred by the announcement of significant investments in German defense and infrastructure. The German authorities have also eased the limit on government borrowing, which has led to higher yields on long-term bonds.Additional pressure on the dollar is exerted by a change in the rhetoric of US President Donald Trump. Some goods from Canada and Mexico were temporarily exempt from new duties of 25%, which gave US trading partners a reason to slow down with retaliatory measures. Canada will refrain from imposing the second part of the "mirror sanctions" until April, and Mexico has promised to provide its response by the end of the week. In addition, market participants continue to reassess expectations about the policy of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). Against the background of mixed macroeconomic data and pressure from the Trump administration, it is predicted that the regulator will limit itself to two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in the second half of 2025.Resistance levels: 104.50, 105.00, 105.30, 105.58.Support levels: 104.00, 103.60, 103.30, 103.00.

EUR/USD: ECB member Schnabel explains the economic weakness of the eurozoneThe EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, holding at the level of 1.0460, despite the weakening of the US dollar. Macroeconomic statistics remain weak and do not contribute to the strengthening of the euro. In January, the consumer price index in the eurozone decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, which led to an annual increase from 2.4% to 2.5%. However, core inflation slowed by 0.9%, remaining at 2.7%. This creates the conditions for further easing of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), as economic growth continues to slow down. In Germany, the recession is intensifying: in the fourth quarter, GDP decreased from 0.1% to -0.2% month-on-month and from -0.3% to -0.2% year-on-year, indicating a deterioration in the economic situation.Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by a decrease in the German consumer climate index from GfK Group, which fell from -22.6 to -24.7 points in March, while analysts had forecast -21.7 points. The reason for the weakening of the indicator was the political instability in the country. Meanwhile, ECB board member Isabelle Schnabel said that the main reason for the economic weakness of the eurozone remains structural problems, and not the high cost of borrowing, which, according to some experts, limits lending and slows down economic growth.Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0680.Support levels: 1.0420, 1.0240.USD/CHF: Bullish momentum is gaining strength, the dollar is strengtheningThe USD/CHF pair continues to grow steadily during the morning trading session, developing an upward movement that began the day before after a rebound from the local lows of December 23, 2024. Quotes are approaching the level of 0.8970, testing the level for an upward breakdown, while market participants are waiting for the release of important macroeconomic data from the United States that can set the further direction of movement.Investors' main attention today is focused on the publication at 15:30 (GMT+2) of US GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as on January statistics on orders for durable goods. The growth rate of the US economy is expected to remain at 2.3%, while orders for capital goods may increase by 2.0% after a decrease of -2.2% a month earlier. The indicator, excluding defense and aviation contracts, is projected to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%. Data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will also be published today: it is assumed that the number of initial applications for the week ending February 21 will increase from 219.0 thousand to 221.0 thousand, and the number of repeat applications (for the period up to February 14) will remain at 1.869 million. On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will monitor the key inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve — the personal consumption expenditures index. According to forecasts, the base rate in annual terms may slow down from 2.8% to 2.6%, while on a monthly basis it is expected to increase from 0.2% to 0.3%. At the same time, the broader index is likely to decline from 2.6% to 2.3%, while maintaining growth at 0.3%. These data may affect the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy and the further dynamics of the dollar.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9037, 0.9075, 0.9100.Support levels: 0.8952, 0.8929, 0.8900, 0.8865.USD/TRY: Turkish Finance Minister confident of success of Erdogan's reformsThe USD/TRY pair remains in a sideways movement, trading near 36.4500 and the recent high of 36.5400, updated at the end of last week. The activity of dollar buyers has decreased against the background of the current macroeconomic background, however, rising yields on US Treasury bonds support demand for the US currency. At the same time, traders take profits by closing some of their long positions, which limits the potential for further appreciation.The lira may strengthen if the forecasts of the Central Bank of Turkey turn out to be correct, but the economic situation remains difficult. Annual inflation slowed to 42.12% in January, but against the background of an increase in the minimum wage, monthly consumer price growth was 5.03%. Investors also drew attention to the refusal of the authorities from the planned increase in the cost of medical services, which may ease inflationary pressure in the coming months: according to preliminary forecasts, the indicator may decrease to 3.0% in February. Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek said that the ongoing structural reform program presented by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the congress of the ruling Justice and Development Party should help stabilize prices, strengthen budget discipline and reduce the current account deficit. The Head of State noted that over the past 22 years, the volume of industrial production with high added value has grown from $95.0 billion to $320.0 billion, and in terms of purchasing power parity, Turkey ranked 11th in the world and 4th in the European Union in 2023.Resistance levels: 36.5000, 36.5406, 36.6000, 36.6500.Support levels: 36.4000, 36.3189, 36.2000, 36.1000.Silver market analysisSilver quotes are showing a downward movement in morning trading, declining again after a slight increase the day before, which temporarily allowed quotes to retreat from the lows of February 11, updated on Tuesday. The asset is testing support at 31.60, being under pressure from the strengthening US dollar. The US currency is supported by technical factors, rising Treasury yields, as well as President Donald Trump's tough tariff policy, which promotes capital outflow into defensive assets. An additional impact is the growing industrial demand, especially in the renewable energy sector, as well as the projected shortage of silver supplies against the background of positive forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for global economic growth in 2025.Investors are awaiting key macroeconomic reports from the United States today, which are scheduled to be published at 15:30 (GMT+2). Among them are GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 and information on durable goods orders for January. Analysts' forecasts suggest that economic growth will remain at 2.3%, and orders for capital goods may increase by 2.0% after falling by -2.2% a month earlier. Excluding aviation and defense contracts, the indicator is expected to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%. The market will also pay attention to statistics on unemployment benefits: the number of initial applications for the week of February 21 is expected to grow from 219.0 thousand to 221.0 thousand, and the number of repeat applications (for the week of February 14) will remain at 1.869 million.The correction in the precious metals market continues, as confirmed by the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the regulator, net speculative positions in silver increased from 49.7 thousand to 54.5 thousand in a week. The balance of market participants has also shifted towards the bulls: their positions secured by real money have increased to 59,139 thousand, while the bears remain at 19,737 thousand. Over the past week, traders have opened an additional 4,380 thousand. purchase contracts, while sales increased by only 0.030 thousand, which indicates continued interest in the asset even against the background of a short-term decline.Resistance levels: 32.00, 32.27, 32.60, 33.00.Support levels: 31.56, 31.30, 31.00, 30.77.

EUR/USD: bulls get a chance to update local peaksDuring Asian trading, the European currency remains near the 1.0489 mark, correcting after the recent update of local highs on January 27. The market is showing restrained dynamics, as at the moment there are no important macroeconomic factors that can set the direction of movement. Investors focused on the possible resumption of tariff restrictions, which US President Donald Trump announced at the beginning of the month.Starting on March 4, 25% duties on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico, which were previously postponed for a month as part of preliminary agreements, will come into force. At the same time, the introduction of similar measures against EU products is not excluded, as Trump has repeatedly accused Brussels of unfair trade policy towards the United States. Experts believe that pressure on the European Union may increase in the framework of negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, given the resistance of individual countries in the region. In addition, the US president has repeatedly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, which also causes controversy in international relations.The market's focus remains on the comments of European officials, which may give signals about the future monetary policy of the ECB. Pierre Wunsch, a member of the regulator's governing council and head of the National Bank of Belgium, called for a cautious approach to adjusting interest rates in order to avoid the risk of an excessive decline in the indicator. In turn, Joachim Nagel, President of the German Federal Bank, noted that price dynamics allow us to expect the target inflation rate to be reached this year. In this regard, market participants predict that the ECB will cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time at the next meeting, as inflation, which exceeded double digits after the events of 2022, has now stabilized just above 2.0%. Additionally, traders drew attention to the final German GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024: the country's economy shrank by -0.2% in quarterly terms and by -0.4% year-on-year, which coincided with analysts' forecasts.Resistance levels: 1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0654.Support levels: 1.0450, 1.0400, 1.0342, 1.0300.GBP/USD: the market expects a rate cut of 75 bp during the yearThe GBP/USD pair shows a downward trend during the morning trading session, returning to a corrective decline. The exchange rate is testing support at 1.2640, while traders expect new factors to appear that could affect further movement. Market participants continue to analyze the macroeconomic statistics for last Friday, assessing its impact on the prospects of the British currency.The January retail sales data in the UK turned out to be higher than expected, which supported the strengthening of the pound. On a monthly basis, the index rose by 1.7% after falling by -0.6% in December, although only 0.3% growth was forecast. On an annualized basis, sales slowed from 2.8% to 1.0%, but exceeded the projected 0.6%. Excluding fuel, growth was 2.1% month-on-month and 1.2% year-on-year, which was also higher than expected at 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively. However, business activity showed mixed results: the S&P Global index in the industrial sector in February fell from 48.3 to 46.4 points against forecasts of 48.4 points, while in the service sector the indicator strengthened from 50.9 to 51.1 points, exceeding preliminary estimates of 50.8 points.The issue of the rate of interest rate reduction by the Bank of England remains in the spotlight, as stated by the representative of the Monetary Policy Committee, Swati Dhingra. During her speech at Birkbeck, she noted that a gradual reduction in the cost of borrowing does not necessarily mean a standard reduction of 25 basis points. At the same time, according to a survey of leading economists conducted by Reuters, most experts predict that the British regulator will continue to ease monetary policy, reducing the rate by 75 basis points during the year.Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2690, 1.2747, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.NZD/USD: the pair is preparing for continued growth after a pullbackDuring the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair fell back to around 0.5710 after steadily rising 3.5% in January and February. Despite the correction, the overall macroeconomic background remains favorable for the continuation of the upward movement. According to published statistics, the core retail sales index in New Zealand for the fourth quarter increased by 1.4% on a quarterly basis, which significantly exceeded the forecast of 0.2%. The previous data was revised upward from -0.8% to -0.6%, and total sales for the same period increased from 0.0% to 0.9%, exceeding analysts' expectations of 0.5%.Additional support for the national currency is provided by the prospect of further easing of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The regulator has already lowered the rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 3.75%, and, according to the head of the department, Adrian Orr, it is likely to reach 3.00% by the end of the year. This means that at least two more stages of decline are possible in the coming months. However, the current weakening of the New Zealand dollar is due to the strengthening of the US currency, which was the market's reaction to statements by US President Donald Trump about the introduction of new duties on copper imports. These measures contribute to the growth of demand for the dollar, putting additional pressure on the NZD/USD.Resistance levels: 0.5795, 0.5928.Support levels: 0.5690, 0.5600.WTI oil market analysisWTI crude oil prices show a multidirectional movement during the morning trading session, consolidating around 69.00 and remaining at the lowest values since December 23, updated the day before. Expectations of a possible diplomatic resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are putting pressure on the market, which reduces demand for defensive assets, including commodities. The administration of US President Donald Trump is actively promoting initiatives to end hostilities, while simultaneously taking steps to restore diplomatic ties with Russia. The first meetings of the delegations have already taken place in Saudi Arabia, and experts believe that if agreements are reached, a partial revision of the sanctions policy is possible, including easing restrictions on Russian energy exports via sea routes and pipeline systems.Additional pressure on oil is exerted by the resumption of exports of raw materials from Iraqi Kurdistan. On Monday, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani announced that supplies would resume after the final approval of technical details with Ankara. According to experts, transportation volumes will amount to about 185.0 thousand barrels per day, which may increase pressure on the market and limit the growth potential of oil prices.Resistance levels: 69.00, 70.00, 71.00, 71.62.Support levels: 68.30, 67.00, 66.00, 65.00.