EUR/GBP: euro is declining due to the ECB's rhetoricThe European currency remains under pressure in the EUR/GBP pair, showing weak dynamics during the Asian session. The instrument is moving within the downtrend formed on January 23, testing the 0.8360 level and updating the minimum values since January 9.The main factor in the decline of the euro was the outcome of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). As analysts predicted, the regulator reduced key interest rates by 25 basis points: the base interest rate is now 2.90%, and the deposit rate is 2.75%. In an official commentary, ECB representatives expressed concern about the potential acceleration of inflation and said they would continue to closely monitor macroeconomic indicators. At the same time, wage growth rates are beginning to stabilize, which, according to experts, will have a restraining effect on inflation risks in the future. There were no clear signals regarding further monetary policy, but a significant number of analysts believe that the ECB may continue to cut rates at each subsequent meeting until mid-summer.Additional support for the pound was provided by the data on lending published the day before: in December, the volume of consumer loans increased from 0.905 billion pounds to 1.045 billion pounds, exceeding expectations of 0.95 billion pounds. The net consumer lending rate also showed significant growth, from 3.5 billion pounds to 4.6 billion pounds, reaching its highest level since September 2022. In addition, the number of approved mortgage applications increased from 66,061 thousand to 66,526 thousand, while forecasts suggested a decrease to 65,400 thousand. These figures indicate the continued steady demand for loans, which increases investor optimism about the prospects for the UK economy, despite the increase in the tax burden planned in the new budget. In addition, the Reuters news agency presented the results of the latest survey of experts: the overwhelming majority of respondents expect that at the next meeting the Bank of England will cut the interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, after which it will take a break to assess the effectiveness of its policy.Resistance levels: 0.8370, 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419.Support levels: 0.8350, 0.8340, 0.8326, 0.8310.NZD/USD: a cautious correction before the statistics on the US PCE indexThe New Zealand dollar shows moderate growth in the NZD/USD pair during the Asian session, consolidating near 0.5646 after weakening during the week. The technical correction contributes to the recovery, as market participants prefer to refrain from active transactions ahead of the publication of key data on inflation in the United States. Investors' attention is focused on statistics on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), which is a guideline for the Federal Reserve when making monetary policy decisions. The base index is projected to increase from 0.1% to 0.2% in December, maintaining the annual value at 2.8%, while the overall index may strengthen to 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year.Macroeconomic data from New Zealand published on the eve reflected a decline in business confidence: the index from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decreased from 62.3 to 54.4 points, and the indicator of forecasted business activity from ANZ fell from 50.3% to 45.8%. At the same time, the situation in foreign trade improved: December exports increased from 6.42 billion to 6.84 billion New Zealand dollars, while imports decreased from 6.85 billion to 6.62 billion dollars. As a result, the monthly trade balance entered a positive zone, recording a surplus of $219 million against a deficit of $435 million in November.Meanwhile, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway noted that New Zealand is losing ground in the global economy, losing ground not only to its largest trading partners, but also to emerging economies. According to his forecasts, the GDP growth rate in the next three years will be 1.5%-2.0% per year, which is significantly lower than historical figures. According to Conway, the key reasons for the slowdown were the weak dynamics of foreign trade, lack of foreign investment, lack of financing for innovative developments and lack of qualified personnel.Resistance levels: 0.5650, 0.5672, 0.5700, 0.5723.Support levels: 0.5633, 0.5607, 0.5571, 0.5540.USD/CAD: US GDP slowed to 2.3% at the end of the year, contrary to forecastsThe USD/CAD pair remains under pressure from fundamental factors, holding in the area of 1.4480 and demonstrating the potential for updating local highs.The US currency is showing a moderate correction, rising to around 108.00 in the USDX index on the back of fresh macroeconomic data. According to published statistics, the US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter slowed from 3.1% to 2.3%, falling short of analysts' forecasts of 2.7%. At the same time, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 223.0 thousand to 207.0 thousand in a week, which temporarily supported the dollar. Investors are also closely monitoring the upcoming introduction of import tariffs, which are expected to take effect tomorrow. US President Donald Trump has confirmed that the new restrictions will affect shipments from Canada, Mexico and several other countries. According to the American leader, the imposition of duties is due to the inability of these states to control illegal migration, as well as their policy of significant subsidies that create a trade imbalance to the detriment of the United States.Resistance levels: 1.4520, 1.4740.Support levels: 1.4410, 1.4170.Crude Oil market overviewThe quotes of WTI Crude Oil continue to move within the corrective trend, again approaching the important level of 72.00. The upward momentum is supported by the ongoing uncertainty regarding the trade policy of the US Republican administration, which forces investors to exercise caution.The latest statistics on raw material stocks had an additional impact on price dynamics. Thus, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), published on Wednesday, showed only a slight increase in oil volumes in storage — by 2,860 million barrels after an increase of 1,000 million a week earlier. A similar report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed an increase in inventories of 3.463 million barrels, while previous figures recorded a decrease of 1.017 million barrels. This information increased the pressure on oil prices, contributing to the persistence of negative market sentiment.Meanwhile, traders are paying attention to the latest statistics from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the latest report, the volume of net speculative positions decreased from 306.3 thousand to 298.8 thousand contracts in a week. Despite this pullback, the indicator remains at a fairly high level, which increases the likelihood of sharp price fluctuations in the coming trading sessions.Support levels: 72.10, 69.00.Resistance levels: 74.00, ...
The Fed is preparing for a pause, investors' attention is focused on key meetings of Central banksToday, the Federal Reserve System (Fed) is expected to take a pause in the rate cut cycle, leaving the target range of 4.25–4.50% unchanged.This decision is consistent with market assumptions and consensus forecasts.In March, the Fed may cut the rate by 25 bps, but high uncertainty in fiscal and trade policy is likely to prevent Jerome Powell from giving a clear signal on further steps.Macroeconomic background: attention to the GDP of Spain and SwedenSpanish GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published today, and an aggregated indicator for the Eurozone will be released tomorrow. The Spanish economy shows steady growth: +0.8% QoQ in the second and third quarters. Growth is expected to be 0.6% QoQ in the fourth quarter, which confirms the positive trend. The European Commission will also present a draft of the Competitiveness Compass, a new EU economic strategy until 2029 aimed at simplifying regulation and accelerating growth.In Sweden, a preliminary GDP estimate will be released at 08:00 CET, and if the forecast of 0.3% QoQ is confirmed, this will ensure annual economic growth of 0.6%. The Riksbank will hold a meeting at 09:30 CET, where the rate is expected to decrease by 25 bps to 2.25%. Given the weak inflation data and declining consumer demand, the likelihood of a second consecutive rate cut remains high.Bank of Canada's decision: market expects policy easingThe Bank of Canada will announce the rate decision at 15:45 CET today. A decrease of 25 bps to 3.00% is expected, which coincides with analysts' forecasts. The main reasons for monetary expansion are oversupply in the market, trade risks due to US policy and expectations of further easing of monetary conditions. In addition to the rate decision, the BoC will also publish a quarterly monetary policy report to help understand the regulator's next steps.Recent events: market reactionJapan: the Bank of Japan is preparing for further rate hikesMinutes of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in December showed that the regulator was discussing a neutral interest rate after a prolonged period of deflation.According to BoJ estimates, its range is in the range of 1.0–2.5%, but the head of the bank, Kazuo Ueda, noted that accurate calculations are difficult.In January, the BoJ already raised the rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, and it is projected to increase further to 1.0% over the course of the year.Australia: weakening inflation increases the chances of a rate cut by the RBA.Inflation data in Australia for the fourth quarter turned out to be lower than expected. The core consumer price index decreased to 3.2% QoQ (expected 3.3%, previous value 3.5%). This reinforces expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut interest rates as early as February, which will be the first policy change in more than a year.USA: declining consumer confidenceAccording to the Conference Board, the consumer confidence index in the United States declined in January, indicating a weakening of sentiment regarding both the current situation and future expectations. A decrease in consumer intentions to go on vacation has become particularly noticeable, which may signal a slowdown in demand.At the same time, the "job availability index" has fallen to a minimum since September, which confirms the weakening of the labor market. However, it is worth considering the political factor - according to the University of Michigan, Republican respondents are much more optimistic about the economy than Democrats, which may influence the results of polls.Eurozone: tough credit conditions continue to constrain growthThe ECB's survey on bank lending showed a further tightening of business lending standards in the fourth quarter of 2024. Demand for loans remains weak, and in the first quarter of 2025, banks plan to further tighten conditions for households and companies. This confirms that the ECB's policy remains restrictive.Norway: weak retail sales increase the likelihood of a rate cutDecember retail sales in Norway decreased by 0.1% mom, which confirms weak consumer demand during the holiday season. Despite real wage growth of 2%, the economy is not yet showing a steady recovery. This increases the likelihood of an interest rate cut in March.Financial markets: reaction to macro data and corporate reportsStock indexes: growth on the background of the technology sectorOn Tuesday, global stock markets showed a recovery, which increased risk appetite through currency correlation. In the stock market, the growth was mainly in the technology sector. Investors were reviewing the impact of DeepSeek (a new technology trend), which led to a reversal after Monday's drop.• Dow Jones +0,3%• S&P 500 +0,9%• Nasdaq +2,0%• Russell 2000 +0,2%In Asia, many markets are closed due to the Lunar New Year, but Japan and several other countries are experiencing growth. Futures for the US and European indices are also trading with a slight increase.Debt markets: correction after rising yieldsYesterday, global bonds partially recovered Monday's losses, when investors went into defensive assets.• The spread between French and German bonds narrowed by 1 bps to 72 bps, which is the lowest level since October.• Italian BTP initially showed good growth, but came under pressure towards the end of the session amid an investigation into Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni.The ECB lending survey indicates the continuation of tight monetary policy, which is holding back the decline in yields.Foreign exchange market: dollar strengthens, euro stays above 1.04• EUR/USD has stabilized above 1.04, but overall the dollar continues to strengthen amid new headlines about Trump's trade policy, which promotes the introduction of universal import tariffs in excess of 2.5%.• USD/CAD is focused on the decision of the Bank of Canada, where the probability of a 25-bp rate cut remains high.• SEK is in investors' focus ahead of the Riksbank meeting, which could set a new vector for the Swedish krona.Conclusion: markets are waiting for the decisions of the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the RiksbankThe key events today are the meetings of the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The Fed's decision to leave the rate unchanged is expected, but Powell's rhetoric will be decisive for the dynamics of the dollar and global ...
EUR/USD: the initiative has moved to the European currencyThe EUR/USD pair is moving within the corrective trend, trading at 1.0419. The European currency is supported by the weakening of the US dollar and positive data on the German economy.In December, the producer price index in Germany decreased from 0.5% to -0.1% month–on-month, and amounted to 0.8% year-on-year, which was lower than the projected 1.1% and the target range of 0.5-1.5%, which allows the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue to adhere to a soft monetary policy. The January index of current economic conditions from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) improved from -93.1 to -90.4 points, although the indicator of economic sentiment decreased from 15.7 to 10.3 points, remaining above the September low of 3.6 points. ZEW President Achim Wambach noted that subdued consumer demand and weak activity in the construction industry remain the main factors of the slowdown in the German economy. The head of the Central Bank of Croatia, Boris Vujicic, added that investors' expectations of a fourfold reduction in ECB rates look justified.The pair's movement is also influenced by the dynamics of the US dollar, which is being adjusted against the background of Donald Trump's inauguration as president and his first steps in economic policy. The USDX index dropped to 107.80 as the market was disappointed by the slow fulfillment of election promises. In particular, instead of the announced increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 40.0% from the first day of the presidency, only 10.0% are being discussed, which will take effect in two weeks.Resistance levels: 1.0460, 1.0620.Support levels: 1.0390, 1.0220.GBP/USD: market focus on employment data for November in BritainThe pound stabilized near the level of 1.2345, being near the local highs of January 9th. The GBP/USD pair maintained its upward momentum despite the publication of mixed data on the UK labor market.In December, the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 0.7 thousand after a decrease of 25.1 thousand in November, while analysts expected an increase of 10.3 thousand. The employment rate rose by 35.0 thousand, which is significantly lower than the previous increase of 173.0 thousand. According to November data from the Office of National Statistics, the annual increase in regular wages for the three-month period was 5.6%, exceeding the figure of the previous period (5.2%). The overall dynamics, including premiums, also accelerated to 5.6% from 5.2%. These data indicate continued price pressures in the economy. However, analysts expect the Bank of England to cut the rate again in February, although the pace of its reduction is likely to slow down. According to the OECD forecasts, the rate could reach 3.50% by 2026. Alan Taylor, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, noted that the regulator plans four rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of 2025, which will bring it to the level of 3.75%.On Friday, January 24, the GfK Group consumer confidence index and business activity data from S&P Global for January are expected to be published. Forecasts suggest a decrease in the confidence index from -17.0 to -18.0 points. The indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector may slightly increase from 47.0 to 47.1 points, while in the service sector it is expected to decrease from 51.1 to 50.6 points. In the United States, similar data may show a slight decrease in the index of business activity in the service sector from 56.8 to 56.6 points, while the manufacturing sector is likely to strengthen from 49.4 to 49.6 points.Resistance levels: 1.2359, 1.2400, 1.2450, 1.2500.Support levels: 1.2300, 1.2261, 1.2230, 1.2200.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is showing steady growth, trading near the 30.81 mark. Investors are carefully assessing the first steps of Donald Trump as president of the United States, which may significantly affect the silver market.One of the key points of his election program was the introduction of high import duties on goods from China, Mexico, Canada and other countries that are the main exporters of silver ore to the United States. Currently, about 21.0% of the silver consumed in the country is mined in the United States, while 44.0% comes from Mexico and 18.0% from Canada. The proposed duties, which can reach 25.0%, will affect up to 62.0% of imports and, according to preliminary data, will enter into force on February 1. Against this background, large commodity traders are beginning to reserve metal shipments for the future. According to JPMorgan Chase & Co., since the beginning of the year, borrowing rates on gold and silver contracts have increased sevenfold, and silver reserves in Comex vaults have increased by 22.0 million ounces. The growing demand has also affected the prices of investment silver. According to the U.S. Mint, the value of the Maple Leaf coin may rise from $36.0 to $45.0 by the end of the month amid an increase in the number of orders.Resistance levels: 31.30, 33.00.Support levels: 30.30, 28.70.Crude Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices showed a slight decrease in the morning session, trading around the 75.50 mark and remaining near the local lows recorded on January 10. Quotes continue the downward trend that began in the middle of last week, when they briefly approached the level of 80.00 and updated the highs of July 19.The market is under pressure from concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States. In the first hours after the inauguration, Trump announced major changes in the country's energy policy. In particular, he lifted restrictions on the development of deposits in coastal areas imposed by the previous administration of Joe Biden, and called for an increase in production at existing fields. In addition, the president signed a declaration on the emergency situation in the energy sector, which is aimed at attracting investments in resource extraction and increasing strategic oil reserves in the United States.Additional pressure on the price of oil is exerted by information from the Kuwait National Petroleum Corporation (KPC) about the new large Al-Jley'a field located offshore the Persian Gulf. According to preliminary data, the field's reserves may reach 800 million barrels of oil and natural gas, which increases concerns about an oversaturation of the market.Resistance levels: 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 79.33.Support levels: 75.00, 74.00, 73.00, ...
Upcoming events for the week of January 21-25, 2025This week, the economic calendar is relatively calm, and key events are scheduled for Friday, when data on the US PMI and sales in the secondary housing market will be published. These reports may give an idea of the state of the United States economy, but they are unlikely to disperse the volatility of currency pairs. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, which is likely to cause significant fluctuations in the exchange rate of the yen and the Nikkei index.The main focus of the market will be on Donald Trump's first actions as president. Although the expected tightening of immigration policy is likely to have a limited impact on the market, any tariff announcements could significantly affect investor sentiment. If his comments hint at a trade war, it could raise concerns about global trade and negatively affect market stability. Traders will closely monitor his statements to determine the possible direction of the market movement.Trading Ideas this week• USD/JPY: it is recommended to consider selling opportunities, especially if the price breaks through the key support level at 155.00, which may pave the way for further decline. Special attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's decisions, as any rate changes may increase volatility.• Bitcoin: the uptrend is gaining momentum, and bullish sentiment is returning after Trump's inauguration. A possible test of the $110,000 level and above is expected as traders seek new highs. Purchases near key support levels can offer profitable entry points for those who are set for further growth.• Crude Oil: the recent truce between Israel and Gaza, as well as Trump's rise to power, are reducing tensions in the Middle East. The weakening of geopolitical risks, combined with expectations of higher production in the United States, may contribute to lower oil prices. Traders should consider selling when prices rise, focusing on lower levels in the short term.• S&P 500: the index may continue to rise this week, fueled by the beginning of the Trump presidency and his "America First" policy. It is recommended to consider buying on pullbacks, as optimism around Trump's policy may continue to support the ...
OPEC+ is markedly reducing oil production - in fact, the exporting countries will pump about 1 million barrels less per day. We have written earlier on why this is so.As a result, supply at the market has become lower, so prices have gone up and are approaching $100 per barrel again.What will the U.S. do after the OPEC+ statement?The coming energy crisis and the high inflation it causes are scaring the whole world, but it's the States that are worried the most right now:expensive oil means expensive fuel;it's causing prices of almost all commodities to rise;inflation is going up - the Fed keeps tightening policy;high key interest rates are pushing the U.S. closer to recession;in addition, high fuel prices can cause social discontent.To prevent this, the U.S. is trying to influence the largest oil producers and keep prices down. Otherwise, the Democrats will most likely not win the congressional elections. They are due in a month.The U.S. started to prepare in advance: President Biden flew to Saudi Arabia this summer and persuaded the U.S. to bring down oil prices. But it did not work out very well: OPEC acts in its own way and does not want to listen to Americans. As a result, the failed negotiations with the Saudis have further diminished the credibility of Biden and the Democrats' ability to influence oil, inflation and economic stability in the United States.However, the Biden administration is not giving up; they have a few more options - rather radical ones - on how to lower oil prices.Additional Oil ReleaseThe safest, though least effective, option is to further draw oil from strategic U.S. storage facilities. In response to OPEC+'s decision to cut production, Biden announced that the U.S. would release 10 million barrels of oil, even as storage reserves are depleted.That would be all well and good, but the announcement had little or no effect on oil prices, especially compared to the previous similar decision to release 180 million barrels to the market. No wonder: the volumes are not comparable.In addition, since U.S. storage reserves are running out, there is a risk that they will not be enough for a rainy day: in case of sharp reductions in domestic production (for example, during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico) or imports (if OPEC+ countries reduce exports).Reducing military aid to the ArabsDemocrats have drafted a "Tense Partnership" bill in response to OPEC+ and specifically the alliance's leaders, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They are accused of "a hostile act against the United States" and "siding with Russia in the conflict with Ukraine."As revenge, the U.S. could withdraw its troops from these countries and stop supplying weapons and other military aid to fight neighboring states and terrorists. This includes protecting oil infrastructure from attack.This option also has disadvantages: without U.S. military support in these countries, there could be problems that would inevitably affect the global oil supply. After all, if military actions or terrorist attacks affect the oil fields or storage facilities of Saudi Aramco, oil will cost even more, and such attacks occur quite often.So even if the Saudis and the UAE will not reduce exports in response to the withdrawal of troops and reduction of arms supply, there is a good chance that sooner or later the fighting will make prices go up.In addition, Saudi Arabia has already planned to prepare for a possible conflict with the United States. For example, in the spring the Saudis said they were going to explore ways to move away from the petrodollar - that is, not to use bucks in the black gold trade. In this case, the demand for the dollar could fall dramatically, especially if other oil-exporting countries do the same.NOPEC: Conflict with OPEC+Amid disagreements with OPEC, the U.S. may return to the "oil production and export cartel law," NOPEC, to have more leverage on oil exporters.In this case, U.S. courts will be able to consider antitrust suits against OPEC+ and in general against countries involved in cartel collusion in the oil market. Under the decision of their own courts, the U.S. will be able to impose sanctions, confiscate property of these countries and put pressure on them in other ways. At the same time, the U.S. itself will indicate what is legal and what is not, thus assessing any actions of the countries that regulate oil production and prices.This option also has a disadvantage: sanctions on exporters would also hit the U.S. itself. If oil prices become lower, the U.S. oil industry will also be hard hit: domestic production will decrease and it will have to import more. And since the market is competitive, and the U.S. in this case will be "enemies of OPEC +", they will have to buy oil more expensive.So, even if the U.S. takes a drastic step - provoking a conflict with Saudi Arabia or the UAE, or starting a sanctions war with OPEC+ - all this will have a negative impact on themselves.Can't sanctions be lifted on Venezuela?As we can see, the U.S. has almost no normal options left to influence the oil market. Nevertheless, the U.S. says it is not going to remove sanctions from Venezuela yet, despite the fact that this would help get more oil on the market and lower oil prices. We may see some new rhetoric in this regard, but no change for now.The Iran deal has also been stalled so far: there is no news or movement on it. Although it is possible that disagreements with the Saudis may attract the U.S. to support Iran, because these are the two sides of the Arab conflict.On the one hand, Iranian oil would help to increase supply, but there is a nuance here as well: the reserves in this country are not grandiose, moreover, most of the oil is already exported in circumvention of sanctions.So what to do with Brent and WTI crude oil prices in 2022?If we discard all of the above options, then all we have to do is sit back and watch oil go up in price. The outlook is also bad: even if the world starts a recession and the demand for oil decreases, OPEC+ is already reducing production and adjusting to negative expectations, and also the supply from Russia may decrease if the embargo comes into force.And if that's the case, U.S. inflation will be high. And given the strong labor market, the Fed may raise the rate even more than 1.25% by the end of the year, and it is not certain that it will slow down next year as well. If rates remain high for a long time, the risk of recession in the U.S. is very high, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will have no fuel for growth. As a result, the economy will have a hard time: liquidity is scarce.If the U.S. starts to act sharply, the dollar is at risk: the "oil" countries can give it up to reduce dependence on the United States. But if the U.S. does nothing, tightening Fed policy will keep the dollar very strong - though at the cost of high inflation and recession. If you are interested in WTI analytics, we recommend you to visit the analytics page, where you can find the latest analytics on Forex from top traders from all over the world. These analytics will be useful both for beginners and professional traders. The Forex signals service makes it much easier for beginners to make their first steps in trading on the financial markets. The latest WTI forecasts and signals contain support and resistance levels, as well as stop-loss ...
In 2019, the "sub-sanctioned" Iran began to increase oil supplies in circumvention of sanctions. Mostly tankers went to China and the Mediterranean: Syria and Turkey. And by the beginning of 2022, the fleet for transporting sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil had tripled. It accounted for approximately 400 million barrels per year. And such a "ghost armada" successfully undermines the business of transport companies.Why did Iranian tankers get such a name?Last year, The Mail on Sunday reported: 123 Iranian vessels circumvent sanctions on oil trade. They change their location to GPS and create the appearance that they are anchored at sea, but at this time they are loading/unloading at the port. They also actively forge documents, use flags of different countries, disable identification systems and use front companies. Oil is often loaded onto several vessels and mixed before reaching its destination. This is also the case with "toxic" Russian oil.At the same time, Iran has a whole "underground" financial system for trade bypassing sanctions, writes the WSJ. It includes accounts in foreign banks, intermediary companies outside the country and firms that coordinate prohibited trade. The annual turnover is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.And Iranian banks attract affiliated firms to manage trade under sanctions. They register "daughters" outside the country, become trusted for Iranian traders, and then trade with foreign buyers of Iranian oil in foreign currency through accounts in foreign banks.Will the "Iranian Armada" help Russia?She is already helping her to circumvent sanctions, writes the Daily Mail. The international non-profit organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) accuses the Iranian navy of cooperating with Russian oil companies. Allegedly, Russian oilmen are using "Tehran's black market vessels" to circumvent the export ban. And the US, the EU and the UK are even calling for the formation of a team of "ghostbusters".At least 5 Iranian "ghost armadas" are transporting oil from Russia to China and India, according to UANI. And recently, the WSJ reported that Zamanoil from the UAE was linking Iranian and Russian oil workers. The US Treasury accused her of working with the Russian government and Rosneft on the supply of Iranian oil to Europe.However, at the end of March, Iran denied a "secret offer from Russia" to help it circumvent sanctions in exchange for support in concluding a nuclear deal. And in May, he noted that he could not be a competitor of Russia in the global oil and gas market. The country has its own regular customers, and Iran sells the maximum amount of oil.So officially, Iran does not seem to be planning to use its "army of ghosts" to help for the benefit of Russia, despite the fact that these countries have "converged" before. But then there was no question of an embargo on Russian oil and there was no ban on ship insurance. In the new reality, the actions of the "ghost armada" are quite difficult to ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
Oil is getting more expensive on Friday morning. By 8.25 GMT, the price of a barrel of Brent oil rose to 70 dollars 89 cents, or 1.75%. The price of a barrel of WTI oil rose to 67 dollars 71 cents or 1.22%. According to the results of trading on Thursday, these oil standards rose by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. Investors evaluate the results of the last meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement. Some market participants expected that the alliance would decide to reduce the volume of oil production. However, OPEC+ retained the current parameters of the deal. This means that the alliance will continue to increase the volume of raw material production by 400,000 b/s every month. At the same time, the participants of the meeting stated that they could make a different decision on the volume of production at any time. Everything will depend on the situation on the oil market and in the global economy. They noted the persistence of uncertainty. It intensified after the appearance of the next coronavirus strain omicron. Investors liked the alliance's statement about the possible holding of an extraordinary meeting, if the situation requires ...