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Forex analytical forecast for today, September 26, for EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD & GBPUSD

AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, Forex analytical forecast for today, September 26, for EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD & GBPUSD

EUR/USD: Negative factors continue to weigh on the euro

The single currency of the Eurozone is showing a negative trend, making another record low and crossing another threshold of 0.9550, which caused the EUR/USD pair to show a decline.

The American currency has been actively strengthening its positions during the last week, especially it was brightly demonstrated last Friday, when the negative statistics was published for the markets. According to the data the PMI (business activity index) of the manufacturing sector in Germany according to S&P Global for September showed a decline down to 48.3 points from 49.1 points. Value of services sector decreased to 45.4 points from 47.7 points against expectations of 47.2 points, composite PMI (business activity index) decreased to 45.9 points from 46.9 points against expectations of 46.0 points. The same euro-area-wide index for manufacturing declined to 48.2 from the previous 48.9 points, and for services to 48.9 points from the previous 49.8 points.

  • Resistance levels: 0.9700, 0.9800, 0.9850, 0.9900.
  • Support levels: 0.9549, 0.9450, 0.9400 and 0.9300.

USD/CAD: the U.S. dollar strengthens the bullish dynamics

In the Asian trading session, the trading instrument USD/CAD is showing a confident upward dynamic, formed from September 13 and reached the level of 1.3625 with the prospect of growth in the future, having updated the July record of 2020.

Market participants are unanimous in their forecasts that the Canadian regulator will stick to the "hawkish" methods of tightening monetary parameters, the more so as Deputy Central Bank Governor Paul Beaudry said, the core and overall indicators for August were at levels above the target level of 2.0%, despite the slowdown in inflation. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index was at its highest level in more than 40 years at 8.1% over the summer, putting the household sector under unprecedented pressure, accelerating the 10.8% year-over-year rise in the food commodities group. A combination of factors allows experts to conclude that the Bank of Canada will decide to raise the key index by 50.0 percentage points, strengthening it to 3.75% in the summit in October.

  • Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800.
  • Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3535, 1.3500, 1.3440.

AUD/USD: instrument consolidation at the level of 0.6500

The AUD/USD currency pair is trading in a moderate downtrend, being at 0.6500 developing a bearish dynamic near the record low of May 2020.

Positions of the instrument are under moderate pressure amid increasing popularity among investors of the U.S. currency due to uncertainty in the markets. At the same time, most trades are made in British and euro zone currencies, while the Australian dollar is supported by Friday's business activity data. According to the statistics, the Commonwealth Bank service sector PMI for September strengthened to 50.4 points from 50.2 points a month earlier, beating the fall forecast to 47.7 points, the S&P Global manufacturing sector reading rose to 53.9 points from 53.8 points last month, just short of the 54.0 points forecast. The Composite PMI (business activity index) edged up to 50.8 from 50.2. The U.S. Business Activity Index remained in the lead, which provided the U.S. currency with a high level of demand.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6572, 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6750.
  • Support levels: 0.6485, 0.6400, 0.6320, 0.6250.

GBP/USD: The government's statements are weighing on the pair

Due to the collapse of the British currency to the record low of the last 37 years, GBP/USD traded down to 1.0554.

The key factor for the pair quotes movement was the report of the U.K. Treasury Department where the actions to stabilize the economic situation were announced. So, besides helping to pay for electricity, taxation was named as a priority area of support. The new Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng noted that the government is working on an algorithm of actions that can significantly help reduce duties, preliminary estimates assume attraction for the implementation of additional 72.0 billion pounds through a number of ways, including the correction of the volume of benefits for the unemployed, which are now provided by the majority of British subjects. Evaluating the risks, the major market participants began to actively redirect assets into alternative currency pairs, due to which the pound may reach parity against the U.S. dollar in the short term.

  • Resistance levels: 1.0800 and 1.1214.
  • Support levels: 1.0276, 1.0000.
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and Silver on Thursday, February 22
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/GBP, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and Silver on Thursday, February 22 EUR/GBP: the euro is growing amid negative forecasts for the German economyDuring Asian trading, the EUR/GBP currency pair shows growth, heading towards overcoming the 0.8570 level.The euro received support from February data on consumer confidence in the European Union, which showed an improvement from -16.1 to -15.5 points, ahead of analysts' forecasts of -15.6 points. At the same time, the euro is being influenced by the downward revision of the German economic growth forecast. Experts now forecast German GDP growth of only 0.2% this year, instead of the previously expected 1.3%, due to weak external demand for German goods, geopolitical risks and high inflation. German inflation is expected to reach 2.8% this year, falling short of the ECB's 2% target. Today's publication of S&P Global business activity data for February attracts the attention of investors, and a slight improvement in indicators in the services and manufacturing sectors is predicted.Resistance levels: 0.8577, 0.8591, 0.8611, 0.8632.Support levels: 0.8562, 0.8546, 0.8519, 0.8500.NZD/USD: reassessment of the timing of the easing of the US Federal Reserve policyThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing significant growth, continuing to form a bullish trend that began on February 14. At the moment, the pair is trying to overcome the 0.6200 level, updating the highs recorded since January 16.The strengthening of the New Zealand dollar is facilitated by the current weakness of the US dollar, which became apparent after the publication of the results of the January meeting of the Federal Reserve System. The participants of the Federal Open Market Committee expressed concern about the risks of early interest rate cuts compared with the duration of tightened monetary policy. As a result, markets adjusted expectations for Fed policy easing in May and June, where the probability of a 25 basis point correction is estimated at 35%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.The positive trend for NZD/USD was not disrupted even by weak economic indicators from New Zealand, where exports fell from $5.85 billion to $4.93 billion in January, and imports fell from $6.22 billion to $5.91 billion, which led to an increase in the trade deficit from $368 million to $976 million in a month. New Zealand retail sales data for the fourth quarter of 2023 is also expected to be released this evening.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6250, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6158, 0.6130, 0.6100, 0.6060.AUD/USD: the market evaluates the results of the last sessions of the RBA and the US Federal ReserveThe AUD/USD currency pair is at 0.6580 and is aimed at further strengthening to the target of 0.6616.This week, the results of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) were presented. During the meeting, the regulator expressed the opinion that before making a decision to reduce the interest rate from the current level of 4.35%, additional time and data analysis will be required, with special attention to achieving a stable rate of inflation reduction to the target level of 2.0%. Salary growth in the fourth quarter was in line with experts' forecasts, showing an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous quarter and reaching 4.2% on an annual basis, which was higher than the expected 4.1%. This may encourage the RBA to maintain a high level of interest rates for longer than expected by the market, although most analysts still believe that the bank will begin to ease monetary policy this fall.Resistance levels: 0.6616, 0.6675, 0.6727.Support levels: 0.6538, 0.6447.Silver market analysisThe XAG/USD currency pair is experiencing a slight rise, approaching the level of 23.00. Market activity remains moderate, despite the abundance of economic data.Expectations of a soft monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve contribute to the support of silver. The analysis of the CME Group FedWatch Tool shows a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts in May from the previously estimated 60% to the current 35%. The publication of the minutes of the January Fed meeting confirmed such sentiments, where FOMC members expressed concern about the rate of decline in inflation to the target level of 2%. There is an opinion that expectations for a decrease in inflation may not come true, which pushes the regulator to continue careful monitoring of the economic situation, and the risks are associated with an early reduction in rates rather than with a long period of their high level.Today, investors will also focus on the statistics of applications for unemployment benefits and on February business activity data from S&P Global, where a slight decrease in indices in the service and manufacturing sectors is expected.Resistance levels: 23.00, 23.32, 23.60, 23.83.Support levels: 22.70, 22.50, 22.21, 22.00.
Feb 22, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, February 20th
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and crude oil for Tuesday, February 20th EUR/USD: the corrective strengthening of the euro has been suspendedThe EUR/USD currency pair is showing a slight drop, rolling back from the peak values reached on February 13 and updated recently. Trading is taking place near the 1.0765 level, while the market is waiting for new incentives to move. The activity of traders at the beginning of the week is low, which is facilitated by the lack of significant economic news from Europe and the American stock exchanges closed on Monday in honor of Presidents' Day.The next day, the focus will be on the session of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the speech of the head of the German Federal Bank Joachim Nagel. The ECB's previously published monthly report pointed to a recession in the German economy caused by weak external demand and limited consumer spending, as well as high ECB interest rates that make domestic investment difficult. It is expected that production volume may decrease in the first quarter. On Wednesday, data on the level of consumer confidence in the eurozone for February will be announced, and an improvement in the indicator is predicted. Also, the market's attention will be focused on the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, where the rate remained unchanged. On Thursday, traders will focus on data on business activity indices in the eurozone for February and updated inflation statistics for January.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0850, 1.0900.Support levels: 1.0765, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0660.GBP/USD: the currency pair is stagnating in anticipation of incentives for activityThe GBP/USD currency pair is in a state of practical balance, hovering around the 1.2585 level. Market players are weighing the chances of new incentives to activate trading, while market volatility at the beginning of this week shows moderate indicators. In the USA, trading platforms did not work on the previous day due to Presidents' Day, while in the UK, investors' attention was focused on updating data on housing prices from Rightmove Group Ltd.: in February, the growth rate slowed to 0.9% from 1.3%, and over the year the index increased by 0.1%, showing an improvement after the previous decrease of 0.7%.Support for the British pound continues to come from retail sales data released at the end of last week. In January, sales increased by 3.4%, exceeding the 3.3% drop a month earlier and analysts' expectations of 1.5%. Year-on-year growth was 0.7%, which is significantly better than the projected decrease of 1.4%. Sales excluding fuel also showed an increase of 3.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding experts' expectations.Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2746.Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400.AUD/USD: the RBA is considering a future rate hikeDuring the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a pullback from the peak values reached on February 2 and re-recorded the previous day, against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar, stabilizing at 0.6536.Attention to the Australian dollar on Tuesday was attracted by the published results of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), held on February 5-6, where it was emphasized that the main reason for maintaining the interest rate at 4.35% is the high level of inflation. The document notes that with further acceleration of inflation, the regulator may consider raising rates by 25 basis points. Inflation is expected to return to the target range of 2.0–3.0% by 2025, according to RBA forecasts.Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6620.Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6440.Crude Oil market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, the price of Brent Crude Oil has been rising, reaching the resistance level of $ 82.80 per barrel.The increase in prices is due to concerns about the supply of fuel due to tensions in the Red Sea area. Attacks by the Ansar Allah group on merchant ships aimed at exerting pressure on Israel's military actions are causing instability in supplies. However, the prospect of reduced demand for oil and petroleum products limits this growth. According to the latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global hydrocarbon consumption is expected to fall due to the economic recession in the UK and Japan, with daily consumption forecast at 1.22 million barrels, down from previous estimates of 1.24 million barrels.Resistance levels: 83.14, 83.89, 84.64, 85.52.Support levels: 82.00, 81.00, 80.00, 79.12.
Feb 20, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, gold, cryptocurrencies and oil for Monday, February 19
NZD/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, gold, cryptocurrencies and oil for Monday, February 19 NZD/USD: on the way to break through the 0.6160 markAfter the release of inspiring data on the state of the New Zealand economy, the NZD/USD currency pair is showing an uptrend, reaching 0.6150. The index of business activity in the service sector, which is compiled monthly by Business NZ based on surveys of managers of private sector enterprises, rose to 52.1 points in January, surpassing both initial forecasts and previous results, thereby indicating an increase in optimism among entrepreneurs. This phenomenon is also confirmed by the composite indicator, which reached the mark of 50.0 points, which is also higher than expectations and previous indicators.Market analysts are observing a stable uptrend, with key support near the 0.6050 level. During February, despite repeated attempts to break through this mark, the price headed up from 0.6050 to resistance at 0.6160. A breakthrough and steady consolidation above 0.6160 portend further growth with potential targets at 0.6205 and 0.6262 levels. If the opponents of growth maintain control over the 0.6160 mark, a decline to the key level of 0.6050 is possible, whose breakdown will indicate a change in the long-term downward trend.Resistance levels: 0.6160, 0.6205, 0.6262.Support levels: 0.6050, 0.5865.Gold price analysisGold is strengthening, continuing the trend that began in the middle of the previous week, when the value of the precious metal rebounded from the minimum values recorded on December 13. At the same time, the latest data from the United States, published on Friday, had little effect on its value, despite the fact that they provoked a revision of expectations about an imminent reduction in interest rates.The producer price index in the United States in January increased by 0.3% for the month and 0.9% for the year, exceeding analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Core inflation, excluding the cost of food and energy, also accelerated, showing an increase of 0.5% for the month and 2.0% for the year, which also turned out to be higher than forecasts. These data forced experts to reconsider their forecasts regarding the policy of the Federal Reserve System, now it is expected that the interest rate cut may be postponed until the summer. The probability of such a move in June is estimated at 69%, although some analysts do not rule out changes already at the May meeting.Resistance levels: 2030.00, 2039.21, 2050.00, 2065.00.Support levels: 2015.30, 2000.00, 1987.29, 1972.85.Cryptocurrency market analysisSince the beginning of February, Bitcoin has significantly strengthened its position, aiming to steadily gain a foothold above the $52,000 level, with current trading around $52,400.The rise in the value of bitcoin is supported not only by an increase in investments in bitcoin ETFs, but also by the anticipation of halving expected in April. Analysts record record inflows of funds into cryptocurrency funds: if in the first week of February the volume of investments amounted to $ 1.1 billion, then the next week it was already $ 2.2 billion. The average daily volume of investments in bitcoin-related ETFs remains at around $500 million, with a special preference for American investors who become more active during trading in their market. The expected halving further contributes to the increase in value, as miners become more cautious in selling mined coins, which leads to a decrease in their supply on the market. Reports show a decrease in sales from miners from 800 BTC at the end of last year to less than 300 BTC at the beginning of 2024, while interest from ETF issuers is growing, exceeding 12 thousand coins.Resistance levels: 53125.00, 56250.00.Support levels: 50000.00, 48437.50, 46875.00.Oil market analysisLast week, WTI crude oil prices peaked at $ 78.61 per barrel, but today showed a slight correction to $ 78.16, remaining relatively stable amid reduced activity due to the celebration of Presidents' Day in the United States.The risks of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East continue to support oil prices. Analysts from the Institute of International Finance in Washington suggest that the forces of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah movement and Iran may join the conflict, which could lead to a slowdown in global GDP growth to 2.4% and a decrease in world trade to 1.6%. Tensions in the Red Sea region are also contributing to instability, especially after reports of an attack on a British oil tanker en route to India by the Yemeni Ansarullah movement. These events highlight maritime safety issues, forcing exporters to look for alternative shipping routes and thereby increasing the cost of transporting raw materials.Resistance levels: 78.61, 83.50.Support levels: 75.14, 72.11, 68.27.
Feb 19, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/TRY and Crude oil on Friday, February 16
GBP/USD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/TRY and Crude oil on Friday, February 16 NZD/USD: pair's attempt to break through the 0.6100 level upThe NZD/USD currency pair is showing uncertainty at 0.6100, with traders waiting for today's economic reports from the US before deciding on new deals.Particular attention is paid to the January statistics on manufacturing inflation in the United States, which will complement the recently published data on consumer price inflation. The consumer price index for January showed a slowdown from 3.4% to 3.1% per annum, exceeding expectations at 2.9%, while the monthly index increased from 0.2% to 0.3%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained at 3.9%, contrary to the forecast of 3.7%. These data led to a revision of expectations for a reduction in Federal Reserve rates, supporting the US dollar. Meanwhile, previous economic data dampened market optimism, with January retail sales falling 0.8% after rising 0.4% in December, which was significantly worse than the expected 0.1% decrease.Resistance levels: 0.6100, 0.6130, 0.6158, 0.6192.Support levels: 0.6060, 0.6030, 0.6000, 0.5950.USD/TRY: new head of the Central Bank of Turkey supports strict policyIn the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows active growth, striving to overcome the 30.8000 level, approaching the next key mark of 31.0000.The Turkish lira is under increasing pressure due to internal economic challenges, while the decisive position of the Central Bank of Turkey has failed to support the currency. The market's attention is focused on the actions of the new chairman Fatih Karakhan, who replaced Hafiz Gaye Ercan, who failed to cope with the task of reducing inflation. During her tenure, the key rate was adjusted eight times, the last time to 45% on January 25, but inflation accelerated from 47% to 64.86%. These measures proved insufficient to stabilize the economic situation against the background of high consumer demand and an increase in the minimum wage, which was increased by 34% in July and by 49% at the beginning of this year. Karakhan confirmed his intention to continue strict monetary policy with worsening inflation forecasts expected at 36% by the end of the year, 14% by the end of 2025 and 9% in 2026. He predicts a peak in price pressure in May, followed by a slowdown in the second half of the year.Resistance levels: 30.8100, 30.9188, 31.0000, 31.1000.Support levels: 30.7230, 30.6500, 30.5500, 30.4526.GBP/USD: British economy has entered a state of technical recessionThe GBP/USD trading instrument is retreating, approaching 1.2580 downwards, against the background of stable USD dynamics.The report on the British economy for the fourth quarter confirmed the entry into a technical recession: GDP for December fell by 0.1% after an increase of 0.2% a month earlier, leading to a decrease in the quarterly figure from -0.1% to -0.3%, against an increase of 0.2% a year earlier. Despite this, some economic sectors are showing signs of recovery: December industrial production increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Today's data showed an increase in retail sales in January from -3.3% to 3.4% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the forecast of 1.5%, and from -2.4% to 0.7% year-on-year, contrary to expectations of a decline to -1.4%, which contributed to the support of the pound.Resistance levels: 1.2630, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2530, 1.2380.Crude Oil market analysisBrent oil prices are showing stability, hovering around $82.30 per barrel. Prices jumped yesterday, responding to American economic statistics.However, this week, the growth of oil reserves in the United States has brought instability to market sentiment. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that in the week ended February 9, inventories increased by 12.018 million barrels to 439.5 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts, which expected an increase of 2.56 million barrels. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its expectations for oil demand for the current year, predicting a decrease to 1.22 million tons. barrels per day from previous estimates of 1.24 million, while predicting a greater increase in supply by 1.7 million barrels per day, indicating a potential oversupply compared to expectations of 1.5 million barrels.Resistance levels: 83.14, 83.89, 84.64, 85.52.Support levels: 82.00, 81.00, 80.00, 79.12.
Feb 16, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, oil and silver for Thursday, February 15th
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, oil and silver for Thursday, February 15th EUR/USD: exploring sloping support and resistance levelsDuring Asian trading, the EUR/USD currency pair is holding near the 1.0725 level, experiencing uncertainty in movement after the recent publication of economic data, which did not have a noticeable impact on market sentiment.In the last quarter, the annual GDP of the eurozone showed no changes, remaining at the level of the previous period, with annual growth of 0.1%, in line with analysts' expectations. December showed an increase in industrial production from 0.4% to 2.6% and from -5.4% to 1.2% on an annual basis, while employment increased from 0.2% to 0.3%.The dynamics of the pair is significantly affected by the correction in the positions of the US dollar, which reached the level of 104.50 on the USDX index. The market is looking forward to the evening statistics on the US labor market and retail sales, expecting that they will provide clues about the future steps of the Federal Reserve System at the March meeting. Forecasts indicate that the core retail sales index for January will decrease from 0.4% to 0.2%, and the number of new applications for unemployment benefits will increase from 218,000 to 219,000.Resistance levels: 1.0827, 1.0942.Support levels: 1.0635, 1.0551.GBP/USD: pound is under pressure due to a number of factorsIn an attempt to reorient medium-term growth to decline, GBP/USD has started falling again since the beginning of the month, being influenced by monetary aspects, now being at the level of 1.2553.In light of recent economic statistics, the Bank of England may be inclined to ease monetary policy earlier than the US Federal Reserve. In January, American inflation exceeded expectations, reaching 3.1% per annum against the projected 2.9%, while British inflation remained at 4.0%, falling short of the expected 4.1%. This indicates a slowdown in the decline in inflationary pressures in the United States, causing concern among regulators, while in the UK the indicators remain stable, strengthening investor confidence in the 2.0% target. British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt expressed optimism about the stabilization of consumer prices at the target level in the near future.Resistance levels: 1.2634, 1.2756, 1.2817.Support levels: 1.2451, 1.2390.Silver prices analysisThe price of the precious metal shows a noticeable strengthening, following the upward correction trend started on the previous day. Now silver is trying to overcome the level of 22.40, trying to compensate for some of the losses incurred on Tuesday after the release of important data on inflation in the United States.The January consumer price index fell to 3.1% on an annual basis from the previous 3.4%, being slightly higher than the market forecasts of 2.9%. The monthly indicator increased from 0.2% to 0.3%. Core inflation, excluding the cost of food and energy, remained at 3.9%, contrary to the expected 3.7%. This forced the markets to adjust expectations again regarding the time of the beginning of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. The current probability of interest rate cuts in March is 15%, and in May it is about 50%.Investors are focused on the January retail sales statistics in the United States, expecting a decrease of 0.1% after an increase of 0.6% a month earlier. In the coming days, we will also have to familiarize ourselves with the data on industrial inflation for January. The producer price index is projected to decrease from 1.0% to 0.6% on an annual basis and increase from -0.2% to 0.1% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 22.50, 22.70, 23.00, 23.32.Support levels: 22.21, 22.00, 21.75, 21.50.Oil market analysisWTI Crude Oil prices have rolled back from a high of 78.61, now at 76.16, amid an increase in hydrocarbon reserves in the United States.The American Petroleum Institute (API) report presented mixed data: crude oil volumes increased by 8.520 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks decreased by 7.23 million barrels and 4.02 million barrels, respectively. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), last week showed an increase in inventories by 12.018 million barrels, which significantly exceeded expectations of 3,300 million barrels. This continuation of the trend of increasing inventories over the past three weeks is putting additional pressure on oil prices.Resistance levels: 78.61, 83.50.Support levels: 72.11, 68.27.
Feb 15, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and AUD/USD for Monday, February 12th
AUD/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and AUD/USD for Monday, February 12th GBP/USD: awaiting key economic data from the US and the UKThe GBP/USD currency pair shows a multidirectional movement, approaching the level of 1.2630 and continuing to rise after a significant pullback at the start of last week. At the same time, market activity remains subdued in anticipation of important economic reports from the United States and the United Kingdom.Investors are looking forward to analyzing the upcoming report on the UK labor market for the period December–January. It is expected that the growth of average wages with bonuses will decrease from 6.5% to 5.7%, and without bonuses — from 6.6% to 6.0%. The unemployment rate is also projected to decrease from 4.2% to 4.0%. With the start of the American trading session, attention will switch to the January US inflation indicators. While no significant changes are expected, the market hopes that the data may prompt the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. Forecasts indicate a possible decrease in the consumer price index from 3.4% to 3.0% on an annual basis and from 0.3% to 0.2% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2746, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500, 1.2450.USD/CHF: the currency is stable near the peak values on December 13During the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair is experiencing fluctuations, trying to overcome the 0.8750 threshold and remaining near the peak values recorded on December 13, amid a decrease in the likelihood of an early interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.Also this week, inflation data from Switzerland will be closely studied, where price growth is projected to slow from 1.7% to 1.6% and stabilize at 0.0% both monthly and annualized. At the same time, during the Chinese-Swiss strategic dialogue, the desire to strengthen open economic ties was emphasized. Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis expressed readiness for deep cooperation with China in the fields of finance, science, innovation, education, intellectual property protection and environmental development.Resistance levels: 0.8760, 0.8800, 0.8820, 0.8850.Support levels: 0.8730, 0.8700, 0.8665, 0.8630.AUD/USD: the exchange rate decreases as the reverse head and shoulders pattern is executedThe AUD/USD currency pair shows a downward trend, stabilizing around 0.6515 against the background of disappointing Australian economic statistics.The Australian Bureau of Statistics report for December shows a decline in retail and wholesale trade by 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively, with a decrease in volumes in eight of the thirteen sectors. The mining industry and the water supply sector are particularly affected, with falls of 6.6% and 3.6%. At the same time, the construction sector and catering services showed growth of 13.9% and 6.1%. Consumer spending increased by 2.3%, which was the lowest growth since February 2021.The market reaction to the speech by Reserve Bank of Australia representative Michelle Bullock was positive. She pointed out that the RBA could lower the interest rate without waiting for inflation to hit the target range of 2.0–3.0%, although the possibility of tightening monetary policy remains open. Bullock suggests that even with an optimistic scenario for Australia's economic development, a significant decrease in inflation below target values in the next four years is unlikely.Resistance levels: 0.6550, 0.6620.Support levels: 0.6490, 0.6380.USD/JPY: Yen may update record lowThe Japanese currency is losing ground against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY pair moving towards the peak values of autumn around 151.70.Due to the current economic situation, the Japanese currency is not showing strengthening, and without repeated intervention by the Bank of Japan in the market, similar to the autumn one, a sharp drop in the exchange rate may follow. According to the latest data, bank lending in Japan increased by 3.1% in January, accelerating from the previous 3.0%, while the current account balance decreased to 0.744 trillion yen from 1.926 trillion yen. The increase in purchases of foreign bonds was observed from 385.5 billion yen to 456.6 billion yen, while the volume of foreign investments in Japanese stocks decreased from 721.0 billion yen to 308.4 billion yen.Resistance levels: 149.90, 151.70.Support levels: 148.30, 146.00.
Feb 12, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and USDX on Friday, February 9th
AUD/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, US Dollar Index, index, Analytical Forex forecast for NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and USDX on Friday, February 9th NZD/USD: the New Zealand dollar is rising at the end of the weekThe NZD/USD currency pair is actively strengthening, updating peaks since February 2 and checking the possibility of a breakout through 0.6120. The fundamental background of the market remains stable. The US dollar was supported by recent statements by members of the Federal Reserve System, including Jerome Powell, who indicated a preference for a more cautious approach to raising the cost of loans. This reduces the probability of an interest rate cut by 25 basis points in March to less than 20%, shifting the focus to the May meeting of the regulator.Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar came under pressure after Chinese inflation data for January was published: the annual consumer price index fell by 0.8% after the previous reading of -0.3%, which turned out to be worse than the expected -0.5%. The monthly consumer price index rose 0.3%, accelerating from 0.1%.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6155, 0.6192, 0.6221.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6060, 0.6030, 0.6000.AUD/USD: pullback after takeoff balanced the gains of the session on TuesdayThe AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing mixed emotions at the auction, not exceeding the critical mark of 0.6500. The previous day recorded a significant drop in the Australian dollar, effectively canceling the growth gains recorded on Tuesday after the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).As expected, the RBA left the key rate at 4.35%, while in a statement stressing the expectation of a moderate decrease in inflation to the upper limits of the target range by 2025. This indicates a cautious approach to changing monetary policy, although the bank will continue to monitor global economic conditions. The further weakening of the Australian dollar was provoked by domestic economic statistics: the index of manufacturing activity from the Australian Industry Group (AiG) for December showed a decline. The Australian currency is also under pressure from data on consumer inflation in China, which slowed more than expected in January, indicating a slowdown in domestic demand and possible consequences for Australian exports of raw materials.Resistance levels: 0.6500, 0.6543, 0.6569, 0.6600.Support levels: 0.6480, 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6356.USD/JPY: January bank lending growth in Japan was 3.1%In the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair shows moderate growth, stabilizing near the level of 149.40 and reaching new peaks since November 27.Current statistics from Japan indicate the difficulties faced by the country's economy: the index tracking consumer spending dropped from 51.8 to 50.2 points in January amid the ongoing onslaught on household financial well-being. This is confirmed by the correction of the household expenditure index in December from -1.0% to -0.9% on a monthly basis and from -2.9% to -2.5% on an annual basis. In parallel, the volume of bank lending in January increased from 3.0% to 3.1%. However, the country's balance of payments for December, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, showed a decrease from 1925.6 billion yen to 744.3 billion yen, which was significantly lower than analysts' expectations of 1018.9 billion yen.Resistance levels: 150.30, 151.80.Support levels: 147.90, 145.90.USDX: the chance of a US rate cut in March is 20%, according to analystsToday, during the Asian session, the US dollar stabilized at 104.00 in the USDX index after it restored the highs on November 14 at 104.40, aiming to end the week with a slight increase.The strengthening of the dollar was provoked by the statements of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. He stressed the need to wait for further evidence of a steady decrease in inflation before deciding to lower interest rates, which forced analysts to reassess expectations and reduce the likelihood of monetary policy easing to 20% in March and to 60% in May.The market's attention was focused on the latest data on the state of the US labor market, released the day before. According to these data, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 227.0 thousand to 218.0 thousand for the week ended February 2, and the number of repeated applications for the week ended January 26 decreased from 1.894 million to 1.871 million, which supported the dollar. However, by the end of the day, the Bulls had lost most of their gains. Now investors are waiting for data on consumer inflation in the United States, which will be published on Tuesday at 15:30 GMT+2.Resistance levels: 104.24, 104.70, 105.20, 105.82.Support levels: 103.60, 103.00, 102.45, 101.67.
Feb 09, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, oil and silver for Thursday, February 8th
EUR/GBP, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, oil and silver for Thursday, February 8th EUR/GBP: stabilization after initial weekly volatilityThe EUR/GBP currency pair is slightly strengthening, recovering from a two-day drop and testing the possibility of overcoming the 0.8535 level. Market activity decreased after the stormy initial trading of the week, caused by dynamic changes in the US dollar exchange rate against the background of investors rethinking the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy. Markets paid special attention to the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who called for caution in changing monetary policy, stressing the need to take into account the risks of accelerating inflation.The latest reports on the state of the British housing sector supported the pound, despite the fact that it is too early to talk about a victory over inflation in the country. The Halifax house price index showed an increase of 1.3% in January, which exceeded both the previous value of 1.1% and analysts' forecasts, which expected an increase of 0.8%. The annual rate has increased from 1.8% to 2.5% over the past three months, reflecting increased confidence in the market due to lower mortgage rates, slowing inflation and stability in the labor market. Today's data from the Royal Institute of Certified Appraisers (RICS) also indicated an improvement from -29.0% to -18.0% in January, which is better than preliminary forecasts of -25.0%. Investors' attention at 17:00 GMT+2 will be focused on the speech of the representative of the Bank of England, Catherine Mann.Resistance levels: 0.8546, 0.8562, 0.8582, 0.8611.Support levels: 0.8519, 0.8500, 0.8479, 0.8450.NZD/USD: exploring sloping support and resistance levelsThe NZD/USD currency pair stabilized near the value of 0.6112 due to the fall in the value of the US dollar.New Zealand's economic indicators are helping to strengthen the national currency: unemployment in the fourth quarter rose from 3.9% to 4.0%, which turned out to be better than the expected 4.3%. Wage growth turned out to be slower, falling to 3.9% from the previous 4.1%, but still exceeded forecasts of 3.8%. On the other hand, the US dollar showed weakness, falling to the level of 103.800 on the USDX index, despite the improvement in foreign trade data: exports in December increased from $ 254.3 billion to $258.2 billion, while imports increased from $316.2 billion to $320.4 billion, which led to an expansion of the trade deficit from -61.9 billion up to -62.2 billion dollars.Resistance levels: 0.6286, 0.6406.Support levels: 0.5986, 0.5799.Silver price analysisDuring the Asian trading session, silver (XAG/USD) is gaining strength after a significant drop at the end of the previous week, approaching the level of 22.30.Investors are carefully studying US employment data and statements by members of the Federal Reserve System. Recall that the creation of new jobs outside the agricultural sector in January exceeded expectations, reaching 353.0 thousand against the projected 180.0 thousand, with a revision of data for December from 216.0 thousand to 333.0 thousand. Wages increased by 0.6% in January, which contradicted expectations of a slowdown to 0.3%. In this context, Jerome Powell stressed the importance of vigilance in easing monetary policy, pointing to the lack of need to hurry and the need to confirm the downward trend in inflation below 3%. Data from China also introduced uncertainty: the consumer goods price index in January showed a change from -0.3% to -0.8%, which is worse than the forecast of -0.5%.Resistance levels: 22.46, 22.70, 23.00, 23.32.Support levels: 22.21, 22.00, 21.75, 21.50.Crude Oil market analysisOil prices are holding at $79.73 per barrel amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East region.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently rejected a Hamas proposal for a cease-fire and the release of hostages in Gaza, thereby confirming predictions about the duration of the conflict. In response, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, visiting Israel, expressed the opinion that prospects for negotiations still exist, pointing to the active consultations between the countries on this issue.Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that over the past week, the volume of net speculative positions in WTI crude oil increased from 184.0 thousand to 196.7 thousand. This trend reflects the growing interest from private investors: the ratio of active bulls to bears among swap dealers was 20,752 thousand against 40,708 thousand, followed by a reduction in the volume of purchase contracts by 0.991 thousand and sale by 3,279 thousand, which indicates the decision of market participants to close short positions.Resistance levels: 81.00, 83.86, 88.37.Support levels: 77.46, 75.40, 72.98.
Feb 08, 2024 Read
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