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Forex analytical forecast for today, September 26, for EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD & GBPUSD

AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, Forex analytical forecast for today, September 26, for EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD & GBPUSD

EUR/USD: Negative factors continue to weigh on the euro

The single currency of the Eurozone is showing a negative trend, making another record low and crossing another threshold of 0.9550, which caused the EUR/USD pair to show a decline.

The American currency has been actively strengthening its positions during the last week, especially it was brightly demonstrated last Friday, when the negative statistics was published for the markets. According to the data the PMI (business activity index) of the manufacturing sector in Germany according to S&P Global for September showed a decline down to 48.3 points from 49.1 points. Value of services sector decreased to 45.4 points from 47.7 points against expectations of 47.2 points, composite PMI (business activity index) decreased to 45.9 points from 46.9 points against expectations of 46.0 points. The same euro-area-wide index for manufacturing declined to 48.2 from the previous 48.9 points, and for services to 48.9 points from the previous 49.8 points.

  • Resistance levels: 0.9700, 0.9800, 0.9850, 0.9900.
  • Support levels: 0.9549, 0.9450, 0.9400 and 0.9300.

USD/CAD: the U.S. dollar strengthens the bullish dynamics

In the Asian trading session, the trading instrument USD/CAD is showing a confident upward dynamic, formed from September 13 and reached the level of 1.3625 with the prospect of growth in the future, having updated the July record of 2020.

Market participants are unanimous in their forecasts that the Canadian regulator will stick to the "hawkish" methods of tightening monetary parameters, the more so as Deputy Central Bank Governor Paul Beaudry said, the core and overall indicators for August were at levels above the target level of 2.0%, despite the slowdown in inflation. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index was at its highest level in more than 40 years at 8.1% over the summer, putting the household sector under unprecedented pressure, accelerating the 10.8% year-over-year rise in the food commodities group. A combination of factors allows experts to conclude that the Bank of Canada will decide to raise the key index by 50.0 percentage points, strengthening it to 3.75% in the summit in October.

  • Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750 and 1.3800.
  • Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3535, 1.3500, 1.3440.

AUD/USD: instrument consolidation at the level of 0.6500

The AUD/USD currency pair is trading in a moderate downtrend, being at 0.6500 developing a bearish dynamic near the record low of May 2020.

Positions of the instrument are under moderate pressure amid increasing popularity among investors of the U.S. currency due to uncertainty in the markets. At the same time, most trades are made in British and euro zone currencies, while the Australian dollar is supported by Friday's business activity data. According to the statistics, the Commonwealth Bank service sector PMI for September strengthened to 50.4 points from 50.2 points a month earlier, beating the fall forecast to 47.7 points, the S&P Global manufacturing sector reading rose to 53.9 points from 53.8 points last month, just short of the 54.0 points forecast. The Composite PMI (business activity index) edged up to 50.8 from 50.2. The U.S. Business Activity Index remained in the lead, which provided the U.S. currency with a high level of demand.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6572, 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6750.
  • Support levels: 0.6485, 0.6400, 0.6320, 0.6250.

GBP/USD: The government's statements are weighing on the pair

Due to the collapse of the British currency to the record low of the last 37 years, GBP/USD traded down to 1.0554.

The key factor for the pair quotes movement was the report of the U.K. Treasury Department where the actions to stabilize the economic situation were announced. So, besides helping to pay for electricity, taxation was named as a priority area of support. The new Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng noted that the government is working on an algorithm of actions that can significantly help reduce duties, preliminary estimates assume attraction for the implementation of additional 72.0 billion pounds through a number of ways, including the correction of the volume of benefits for the unemployed, which are now provided by the majority of British subjects. Evaluating the risks, the major market participants began to actively redirect assets into alternative currency pairs, due to which the pound may reach parity against the U.S. dollar in the short term.

  • Resistance levels: 1.0800 and 1.1214.
  • Support levels: 1.0276, 1.0000.
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Forex analytical forecast for today, February 7, for EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD & Crude oil
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, February 7, for EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD & Crude oil EUR/USD: the "American" recovers lossesThe single currency of the Eurozone is developing a corrective trend, but as a result of the active strengthening of USD quotations during the last three days the EUR/USD trading instrument is losing ground, testing the 1.0729 level.The current trend has a strong momentum going forward and the macroeconomic data block has not provided much support to the EUR as December retail sales slumped by 2.7% beating market expectations of -2.5% and the 2022 total was down 2.8% with an estimate of -2.7%. Excessive volatility is not expected on the European markets today and investors will want to evaluate the industrial production statistics of Germany for December, the index of which is expected to lose -0.7%.Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0990.Support levels: 1.0680, 1.0520.AUD/USD: RBA has managed to support the national currencyThe trading pair AUD/USD is developing an upward dynamic within the framework of the correction amid the loss of initiative from the "bears", which was held by them for three sessions in a row, where the instrument updated the local minimum of January 6. The Reserve Bank of Australia held a meeting which resulted in officials deciding to raise the interest rate by 0.25%, strengthening the target to 3.35% giving a boost to positive momentum.The regulator's accompanying statements hinted at the development of a further inflation-targeting program through further monetary corrections. Economists have estimated that the consumer price inflation rate could fall to 4.75% by the end of 2023 and could reach 3.0% by the end of Q2 2025. Officials have noted the resilience of fundamentals for a decline in the consumer price index over the medium term, wishing to support or boost the effectiveness of earlier measures with an additional tightening of monetary policy before the end of spring this year. However, analysts at the regulator do not see a possible recovery of economic indicators. According to the expectations of the monetary watchdogs, the dynamics of the Gross Domestic Product will fall to 1.5% in the next two years. The tense situation in the segment of employment is separately noted, as a number of Australian companies continue to experience difficulties in hiring full-time employees, but a moderate positive trend has made itself felt. However, the RBA experts forecast a gradual increase in the number of unemployed to 4.5% by mid-2025 instead of the current 3.5%.Resistance levels: 0.6950, 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7100.Support levels: 0.6900, 0.6850, 0.6800, 0.6750.USD/CAD: US labour market supported the pairThe publication of strong US labor market data at the end of the previous week allowed the USD/CAD pair to advance to 1.3470.According to the report the number of employed people, not including the AIC segment, reached 517.0 thousand in January, having surpassed 2.5 times the previous estimate of 185.0 thousand, having beaten the previous showing of 260.0 thousand, while the unemployment rate had dropped to a record 3.4%, while the market estimate was 3.6% and the previous reporting period was 3.5%.For investors in USD/CAD trades, the US dollar is of more interest, and the publication of data on the Canadian economy only adds to the upward trend. Thus, the level of approved applications for construction work in Canada fell by 7.3% month-on-month in December, against market estimates of -5.0% and the previous value of 14.9%. Meanwhile, business activity from Ivey in January strengthened considerably to 60.1 points, well above the expected 42.3 points and the previous 49.3 points.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3670.Support levels: 1.3250, 1.2970.Oil market analysisBrent benchmark crude oil is quoted at 82.40.The global market for oil products is showing a stable trend and most analysts agree that restrictive measures by the collective West to limit Russian oil have failed to show the expected result. Earlier Bloomberg published an article which recorded another update on the record of Russian oil shipments by sea. Thus, as of February 3, the daily supply rate rose by 125.0 thousand barrels to a target of 3.456 million barrels, and the main importers were India, PRC and Turkey with a share of 3.29 million barrels. Meanwhile, the pipeline supply load continues to decline, with January's value for Poland and Germany at just 120.0 barrels per day. Earlier it was reported that the G7 sanctions policy of fixing an upper ceiling on the cost of supplying refined products by sea from Russia at $100.0 and $40.0 a barrel based on category has now been extended by the accession of Japan. The sanctions came into force on 6 February, but the caps will be adjusted every two months based on market conditions.Resistance levels: 83.30, 89.00.Support levels: 79.60, 74.00.
Feb 07, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, February 6, for USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD & Gold
USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, February 6, for  USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD & Gold USDJPY: dollar has moved to a correctionThe trading instrument USDJPY is developing a downward dynamic within the framework of the correction after a significant strengthening at the end of last week. Meanwhile, the pair moved to an active growth gap at the beginning of the session, intending to carry out its leveling.The US currency gained notable support at the end of the previous week from a strong US jobs report. Thus, the United States economy increased the number of new job openings by over 500.0 thousand, excluding the agricultural sector, beating analysts' expectations of 185.0 thousand, The December figures were corrected to 260.0 thousand from 223.0 thousand. The unemployment rate for the same period declined to 3.4% from 3.5% with a market expectation of 3.6% and average pay per hour slowed to 0.3% from 0.4% for the month and to 4.4% from 4.9% for the year, against neutral forecasts by economists.Resistance levels: 132.00, 133.00, 133.61, 134.50.Support levels: 131.00, 130.00, 129.00, 128.00.USDCHF: the pair is consolidating near a new local highThe currency pair USDCHF is displaying a mixed trend, testing the level of 0.9250 retracing the local high of January 31. Investors are refraining from increased activity, waiting for new signals and assessing the strong US jobs data released last Friday.Thus, investors' attention was focused on a sharp increase in the number of new vacancies, excluding the agribusiness sector, amounting to 5170.0 thousand against 260.0 thousand in December, with the market estimate of only 185.0 thousand. Unemployment fell to 3.4% from 3.5% at the expected 3.6%. Service sector business activity from ISM in January edged up to 55.2 points against estimates of 50.4 points, and the value from S&P Global rose to 46.8 points against 46.6 points, exceeding neutral expert estimates. Thus, the US Federal Reserve received an additional signal due to strong macroeconomic data, which will allow continuing to tighten monetary stimulus. Recall that at the end of the extreme summit last week, the agency raised the interest rate by 0.25% and urged market participants not to speculate on the topic of the end of the monetary tightening cycles.Resistance levels: 0.9300, 0.9350, 0.9400, 0.9478.Support levels: 0.9250, 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100.USDCAD: US labour market data has supported the 'American'The USDCAD trading instrument showed moderate decline, completing a notable increase at the end of the previous week, testing 1.3400 area, the local high of January 31.Traders paid attention to the report on the US January employment market published at the end of last week, intending to forecast what impact the statistics will have on the further announcement of the US Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus. Thus, the non-farm payrolls rose by an additional 517,000 jobs, almost twice the experts' forecast, while the number of unemployed rose to 3.4% from 3.5% at the analysts' estimate of 3.6%. Business activity according to the Institute for Supply Management improved to 55.2 points from the previous 49.2 points with an expectation of 50.4 points.Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3226.Gold analysisThe precious metal is trading within the correction, testing the 1877.0 mark.The day earlier the asset had seen its steepest fall since early summer 2022, at $90.0 from 1950.0, to a low of 1860.0 on Friday, showing vulnerability to the US dollar rising to 102.900 from 101.500 due to the reaction to the strong US labour market report. Market participants interpreted the consolidation as a technical correction, with no fundamentals, as the main asset backdrop is clearly bullish for gold due to record gold demand in 2022 at 4,741 thousand tonnes, marking a new peak since 2011. The key buyers of the precious metal were central banks, most of whom wished to remain anonymous. Economists estimate that financial authorities are building up the margin of safety for national economies in the face of risks of being hit by sanctions from other countries.Resistance levels: 1900.0, 1960.0.Support levels: 1860.0, 1800.0.
Feb 06, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, February 2, for EURUSD, USDCHF, Silver & Crude oil
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, February 2, for EURUSD, USDCHF, Silver & Crude oil EUR/USD: the EU currency is developing a positive momentumThe EUR/USD trading instrument continues the bullish momentum started earlier, when the markets started evaluating the macroeconomic data release and the final minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary issues summit. The pair intends to keep above 1.1020, but some traders are refraining from deals waiting for the outcome of the ECB (European Central Bank) officials meeting, which may result in 0.50% increase of the key index and continue to comply with the set pace on monetary policy, which will allow the euro zone currency to gain support in the market.A notable positive signal for the euro was the euro-zone's macroeconomic data unit which showed the consumer inflation rate dropping by 0.4% in January, repeating the value recorded in December and the annual rate dropping to 8.5% from 9.2%, outperforming the investors' estimations by 0.5%. Meanwhile, experts note that due to technical problems there were no data from Germany in the final publication. Analysts of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations (U.N.) noted that economic activity of the European region will decrease to 0.2%, the relative estimate at 3.3% in 2022, since the weakening of the quarantine measures approved to overcome the spread of infection Covid-19, and the released pent-up demand helped stimulate the economy. The EU continues to reduce the region's dependence on Russian gas, remaining vulnerable to possible supply disruptions of the energy carrier.Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1100, 1.1150, 1.1200.Support levels: 1.1000, 1.0928, 1.0850, 1.0800.USD/CHF: USD remains under pressureIn Asian trade the currency pair USD/CHF continues to decline within the framework of the "bearish" trend created on Tuesday, being at 0.9060, updating the record low of August 2021.The negative dynamic for the US dollar was intensified by the macro data, which showed the manufacturing PMI (business activity index) from ISM (Institute for Supply Management) dropping to 47.4 points from 48.4 in January, disappointing analysts, who expected the correction to 48.0, new orders also dropped to 42.5 points from 45.1, while the growth to 46.1 was expected.Swiss publications also failed to meet expectations. Thus, PMI (business activity index) from SVME (Association for Material Supplies and Purchasing) for January fell to 49.3 points from the previous 54.1 points, with a slight increase to 54.8 points.Resistance levels: 0.9100, 0.9150, 0.9200 and 0.9250.Support levels: 0.9036, 0.9000, 0.8960, 0.8925.Silver prices analysisThe bank metal is quoted with active growth, having updated the level of 24.20. The stock develops an upward trend formed earlier in response to the final minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, where the regulator increased the interest rate by only 0.25% and gave a clear signal to the market that a moderate correction is likely to continue in the future. Contrary to the "hawkish" statements of the regulator's chairman J. Powell about the premature rumors of victory over consumer price growth, market participants expected more.During today's trading the attention of the market participants will shift to the summits of the UK and EU regulators, as a result of which the investors expect an increase of the interest rate by 0,50% and statements on further plan of actions in the short term. If the U.S. Federal Reserve has more room for maneuver in the matter of monetary parameters, the Bank of England and the ECB (European Central Bank) have restrictions of action, as officials take into account a greater likelihood of economic recession in the region. Meanwhile, most analysts are in the mood to hear bold statements from the "hawks" of the named agencies.Resistance levels: 24.20, 24.42, 24.67, 25.00.Support levels: 24.00, 23.60, 23.32, 23.00.Crude Oil market analysisThe benchmark Brent crude oil prices are holding at 84.00.Meanwhile, the U.S. data on storage reserves for the fifth week in a row gives a signal that the supply prevails over the demand. Thus, earlier API (American Petroleum Institute) announced that it had increased by 6.330mb, while EIA (Energy Information Administration) statistics showed a build-up of 4.140mb, having risen by 0.533mb the day before. The published data intends to act as a negative factor for oil price, however investors don't hurry to react to the reports. Moreover, according to the released report from IEA (International Energy Agency), plans of G7 countries to approve the ceiling for Russian oil quotations in order to limit the supply of raw materials in the markets will not be able to cause serious consequences.Resistance levels: 85.50, 92.00.Support levels: 80.64, 75.50.
Feb 02, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, January 31, for USDCAD, NZDUSD, USDJPY & Gold
USD/CAD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 31, for USDCAD, NZDUSD, USDJPY & Gold USD/CAD: dollar is moving upUSD/CAD is growing moderately in the morning trading session, being influenced by the bullish trend which was formed earlier.The current week was marked with the retreat from the local minimum of November 16 due to the decision of investors to refrain from the market activity ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve summit, scheduled for Wednesday, waiting for the key value to strengthen by 0.25%, which will raise the target to 4.5%, thereby giving a hint to economists about the soonest completion of a system tightening of monetary parameters. Meanwhile, experts urge to refrain from hasty evaluations, admitting that the position of the regulator's chairman J. Powell may take the side of "hawks". In general, economists agree in their position that the target value by the end of 2023 has no chance to cross the 5.0% mark, even on the contrary - a slight correction is likely by the end of the year.The data on the Canadian labor market will not be published this week, that is why investors are mostly interested in the PMI (business activity index) data from S&P Global and the data on the GDP (gross domestic product) dynamics for November, which is forecasted to fluctuate zero, having been previously fixed at 0.1% for October.Resistance levels: 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3600.Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250.NZD/USD: January low updateThe NZD/USD trading instrument reflects the downtrend, being influenced by the "bearish" signal from Monday's trading session. The pair is in the area of 0.6450, continuing the decrease, having updated the local minimum of January 23.Some support for the pair was provided by the data from China, which recorded a recovery in business activity. Thus, the NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) reported that the manufacturing sector in January strengthened to 50.1 points from 47.0 points, beating investors' expectations of 49.7 points and services sector to 54.4 points from 41.6 points, beating the forecast growth of 51.0 points.The New Zealand currency is showing vulnerability ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting, the results of which will be announced tomorrow. The agency is expected to raise the interest rate by 0.25%, but there is a chance that the chairman of the regulator will announce the continuation of monetary tightening at a soft pace in the short term. Whatever the outcome of the summit, economists expect the dollar to gain new support for further gains as it strengthens ahead of national labor market statistics due out later in the week.Resistance levels: 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6600, 0.6650.Support levels: 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6350, 0.6288.USD/JPY: Japan's retail sales rose unexpectedlyThe trading pair USD/JPY is at 130.32, however the macro report released this morning corrected the recent negative trend.According to the statistics, one of the main values reflecting consumer activity, the index of retail sales for December has strengthened from 2.5% to 3.8%, beating market expectations of a 3.0% growth, while the value for large retailers rose 1.1% against a decline of 1.3% in November. Moreover, the unemployment rate for the same period was 2.5% with the jobless claims ratio still at 1.35.Resistance levels: 131.60, 135.40.Support levels: 129.00, 126.30.Gold analysisThe precious metal is trading at 1920.00, influenced by contradictory factors. A week earlier the asset successfully updated April's high at 1950.00, backed by a weaker USD Index.The announced summits of the ECB (European Central Bank) and the Bank of England serve to strengthen the "bears". The financial authorities of the two countries are set to raise key values by 0.50% and also give signals to the market on further monetary tightening by a milder step. Investors are waiting for the consumer price index for January to be published this week. Preliminary estimates suggest inflation will hold above the 9.0% level, surpassing the 2.0% target set by the ECB. The economic recession poses much more of a threat to British and European regulators than to the U.S. agency, so there is limited flexibility for the former to proceed.Resistance levels: 1930.00, 1952.53, 1974.22, 2000.00.Support levels: 1915.00, 1900.00, 1886.46, 1869.49.
Jan 31, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, January 30, for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF & AUDUSD
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 30, for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF & AUDUSD EURUSD: the "bears" have intercepted the initiative on the euroThe EURUSD is trading in a sideways trend, being at 1.0875. The currency pair is showing consolidation, having completed the decline in the previous two trading days, having moved away from April's resistance threshold. Investors are refraining from active actions in the trading session on Monday, waiting for the publication of macroeconomic data from Germany and the EU.So, the publication of the first estimate of German GDP (gross domestic product) for Q4 2022 is announced for today. Experts' preliminary expectations are inclined to zero trend, having previously increased by 0.4% and the annual rate of strengthening may decrease to 1.1% from 1.2%. In addition, analysts are focused around the announcement of the release of consumer confidence and sentiment in the EU economic environment for January. According to preliminary estimates the figures will show a slight decline to 94.6 points from 95.8 points.Resistance levels: 1.0928, 1.1000, 1.1051, 1.1100.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0759, 1.0700.USDCHF: The U.S. currency trades in different directionsIn Asian trading the USDCHF currency pair reflects a multidirectional trend, testing 0.9200, successfully keeping moderate bullish momentum from late last week, where the "American" retreated from the local low of January 20.The market is focused around the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Wednesday, for which analysts give a cautious forecast and expect a 0.25% interest rate increase, which will signal economists that the systemic monetary tightening will end soon. Meanwhile, analysts do not rule out the possibility that the correction will continue in one step in the first half of this year, a step of 0.50%, and the U.S. financial authorities will be guided by the indicator of consumer prices and the risk of recession in the national economy.Resistance levels: 0.9250, 0.9300, 0.9350 and 0.9400.Support levels: 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9050.AUDUSD: Australian consumer prices set a new recordThe AUDUSD trading instrument reflects a mixed trend, hovering around 0.7100, pending the release of a macroeconomic data set. Moreover, investors are waiting for the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and ECB (European Central Bank) meetings announced for this week. According to preliminary estimates, U.S. officials will increase the key indicator by 0.25%, while European and British regulators will raise the value by 0.50%.At the beginning of the trading week the currency pair continues to be influenced by last week's statistics. Thus, Australia's consumer price index hit a 32-year high of 7.8% in Q4, manufacturing inflation edged up only 0.7%, down from 1.9% in the quarter, while the annualized rate of manufacturing fell to 5.8% from 6.4%, disappointing analysts who expected a decline to only 6.3%. The negative trend was driven by sharp increases in the cost of food, motor fuel, and housing, but external and internal displacement showed the highest consumption rates, 13.3% and 7.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the truncated annual average inflation rate reached 6.9%, setting an all-time record.Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.7202, 0.7250, 0.7300.Support levels: 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.7000, 0.6950.GBPUSD: U.S. households cut spendingThe local decline in the U.S. dollar trading instrument reflects a correction at 1.2400. "The Briton is holding neutral amid comments at the UK Treasury Department.Jeremy Hunt absolutely supported the 2022 tax reform project, urging people in retirement to reenter the workforce, because overcoming inflation is only possible by increasing productive activity through new job openings. Some experts strongly condemned this initiative noting that the current situation requires reducing the tax burden, rather than calling on the population to correct the mistakes of the authorities.Resistance levels: 1.2500 and 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2260, 1.1900.
Jan 30, 2023 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for today, January 27 for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD & USDTRY
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for today, January 27 for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD & USDTRY EURUSD: U.S. economy has gloomy prospectsDuring the Asian trading session, EURUSD is developing a local uptrend at 1.0869 due to the uncertainty of the US dollar.Despite the local rise in values, the economic recession continues to be the main threat to the European economy, which has all chances to occur by the third quarter of 2023. As it follows from the report of IFO (Institute for Economic Research) published a day earlier, the business climate in Germany strengthened to 90.2 points from 88.6 points, the index of business prospects to 86.4 points from 83.2 points, the economic climate has declined to 94.1 points from 94.4 points amid falling costs for "blue fuel", which allowed companies to reduce spending.The U.S. dollar is holding near the 101.700 mark in the USD Index due to mixed sentiment among investors on the back of the releases the day before. For instance, GDP (gross domestic product) slowed down from 3.2% to 2.9% in the fourth quarter, contrary to the more pessimistic expectation of -2.6%. The underlying indicator for durable goods orders showed a slight decline of 0.1%, having previously increased by a similar amount, and unemployment claims dropped to 186,000 from 192,000.Resistance levels: 1.0920, 1.1160.Support levels: 1.0790, 1.0590.GBPUSD: the "Briton" is testing the local maximum.The trading instrument GBPUSD is under the influence of contradictory factors and is near the local ceiling for June. The pair is testing the area of 1.2400, but the release of macroeconomic data block returned the advantage to the "bears" in the market.Recall that a number of investors are trying to assess the US GDP (gross domestic product) in Q4 2022, which has met expectations of a decline from 3.2% to 2.9%, against the forecast of 2.6%. The U.S. Federal Reserve is getting a boost ahead of the first announced meeting of officials this year, scheduled for next week. Experts concede that the demonstrated strength in economic growth will allow the regulator to increase the interest rate by 0.50%, but most analysts expect a correction of only 0.25%. Earlier the U.S. currency gained additional support thanks to statistics on orders of long-life goods that rose 5.6% in December against a 1.7% slump last month while the market was expecting only a 2.5% correction. Excluding defense orders, the figure rose 6.3%, previously down 2.3% for November with an estimate of a moderate decline of -0.1%.Resistance levels: 1.2400, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700.Support levels: 1.2311, 1.2240, 1.2150, 1.2084.USDCAD: the pair has moved up slightlyThe currency pair USDCAD is quoted by the moderate strengthening, moving away from the local low of November 18.Earlier, the U.S. dollar reflected a strong decline, ignoring the rather positive publication on the national GDP (gross domestic product) in the fourth quarter of the previous year, where the national economy slowed to 2.9% from the previous 3.2% while analysts were confident to see a decline to 2.6%. Such situation resulted in the forced correction of expectations concerning the further strategy on the issue of further toughening of monetary parameters by the US FRS. Meanwhile, the fundamental scenario, as before, provides for the correction of the interest rate only by 0.25% after the announced meeting on February 1.Resistance levels: 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3450 and 1.3500.Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3226, 1.3150, 1.3100.USDTRY: Turkish regulator leaves inflation expectations unchangedUSDTRY is bullish this morning, hovering around 18.80 amid positive statistics from the US. Contrary to expectations of a larger drop to 2.6% of GDP in Q4 2022, the decline was only 2.9% from 3.2%, which caused confusion among experts regarding further decisions of the US Federal Reserve on monetary parameters following the February 1 meeting, but the main scenario, as before, provides for a 0.25% correction of the index.Meanwhile, financial authorities in Turkey say that expectations for consumer inflation will remain unchanged at 22.3% this year and at 8.8% in 2024. Officials emphasize that they will continue to follow the current vector in the issue of monetization, and the growth rate of credit costs will be tied to the inflation target within the establishment of a financial balance, as for December the value decreased to 64.27% from 84.39% with zero dynamics of interest rate adjustment. The U.N. experts' estimates reinforce confidence in the positive scenario that inflation will slow to 42.4% by 2024 and national economic growth could strengthen by 3.7%.Resistance levels: 18.8000, 18.8500, 18.9000, 19.0000.Support levels: 18.7500, 18.6815, 18.6390, 18.6000.
Jan 27, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, January 26, for USDJPY, NZDUSD, GBPUSD & Silver
GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Silver, mineral, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 26, for USDJPY, NZDUSD, GBPUSD & Silver USDJPY: dollar is under pressureThe trading instrument USDJPY is showing no signs of losing ground, testing the level of 129.30, continuing the downward trend that started on Tuesday, January 24, where the American currency was holding close to the local highs of January 18. The pair is consolidating amid expectations for the macroeconomic bloc to be released later this week.Meanwhile, consumer price data for January is scheduled for release tomorrow. According to preliminary estimates the consumer inflation rate in Tokyo and the region will rise to 4.4%, creating conditions for the financial authorities of the country to stop the course from soft monetary parameters in the foreseeable future. At the same time, Japan's Ministry of Finance said that economic indicators continue to decline rapidly due to the increasing intensity of hostilities in Russia's war against Ukraine and as a result of the costs of fighting the Covid-19 pandemic. According to comments made by Shunichi Suzuki, head of the Ministry of Finance, the authorities will support households and companies that are under pressure due to rising prices, which reached a 41-year record. Recall that for December the value added 4.0% in annual terms without taking into account food. The head of the government sees the solution in correcting wages to above inflation, paying subsidies to families with children, encouraging investors and reforming the areas of "green" and digital transformation.Resistance levels: 130.00, 131.00, 132.00, 133.00.Support levels: 129.00, 128.00, 127.00, 126.34.NZDUSD: the pair is holding near the local highThe NZDUSD currency pair reflects a moderate strengthening, recovering losses incurred earlier when the instrument moved away from the local high of January 18. A moderate support for the instrument is waiting for the release of the block of macroeconomic data from the U.S. value of GDP (gross domestic product) for Q4 of the previous year. It is predicted that the active recession of the economic activity will accelerate the completion of the cyclical interest rate corrections by the U.S. Federal Reserve.Additional support for the pair is the market participants' hope for the continuation of the positive dynamics of the Chinese economic indicators, which still failed to recover after the cancellation of the quarantine measures. Recall that in December 2022 the Chinese authorities stopped supporting the "zero tolerance" to the spread of COVID-19 infection, which will provide an incentive for the resumption of industrial activity and restoration of the trade balance.Resistance levels: 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6600 and 0.6650.Support levels: 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6350 and 0.6288.GBPUSD: the bears continue to press on the economyWeak macro data released on the previous day leaves no chance for the "bulls" to retake the initiative and therefore national economy keeps sliding, and GBPUSD reached 1.2400.The manufacturing sector activity rose to 46.7 points from 45.3 points earlier, services sector declined to 48.0 points from 49.9 points, bringing the benchmark reading to 47.8 points from 49.0 points. Manufacturers recorded a 0.8% decline in December selling prices, adjusting the year-over-year increase to 14.7% from 17.5% last year, and a 1.1% decline in purchasing prices, slowing the year-over-year trend from 19.2% to 16.5%.Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2280, 1.1900.Silver pricesDuring morning trading, the precious metal reflects a mixed trend, sitting at 23.80.Traders will abstain from new trades on the asset, wishing to wait for the release of key U.S. economic indicators, including dynamics of GDP (gross domestic product) for Q4, where economists forecast decline to 2.6% from the current 3.2%, and loss of initiative from the "hawks" in the U.S. Federal Reserve. Next week, the agency is likely to announce a strengthening of the key indicator by only 0.25%, and experts agree that the next phase of interest rate hikes of similar magnitude will be announced before the summer, followed by a break to assess the effect of the cumulative measures taken. The ECB (European Central Bank) and the Bank of England are showing more determination, so silver prices will react to possible interest rate increases. Moreover, the Japanese regulator, which for a considerable time had a "dovish" vector in monetary parameters, may switch to "hawkish" rhetoric in the short term.Resistance levels: 24.00, 24.20, 24.42, 24.67.Support levels: 23.60, 23.32, 23.00, 22.70.
Jan 26, 2023 Read
Forex analytical forecast for today, January 25, for EURUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD & Crude oil
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Forex analytical forecast for today, January 25, for EURUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD & Crude oil EURUSD: the euro is moderately advancingThe EURUSD trading instrument traded slightly higher during the morning session, reaching the resistance level of 1.0900. The pair still has a moderate positive trend from the 19th of January, but the potential for "bullish" stimulus is reduced, because market participants expect a new positive for the pair.A day earlier the statistics on business confidence in the Eurozone was released by S&P Global in January. Thus, the manufacturing sector strengthened to 48.8 points from 47.8, beating the experts' expectations of 48.5 points. The service sector increased to 50.7 points from 49.8, with the market estimate of 50.2 points. The manufacturing sector in the composite index for January increased to 50.2 points from the previous 49.3 points, with the preliminary expectation of 49.8 points. In addition the February consumer sentiment index data from Gfk Group came in, reflecting the slowdown to -33.9 points from -37.5 points with market estimates of -33.0. Overall, confirming consumer sentiment due to the energy market situation, but demand for energy resources continues to remain low on the part of private consumers.Resistance levels: 1.0925, 1.0957, 1.1000, 1.1051.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0800, 1.0759, 1.0700.USDCHF: The US dollar has taken a wait-and-see attitudeIn the trading session of the APAC countries the currency pair USDCHF is gradually strengthening positions during the unstable uptrend since Friday.Earlier the U.S. dollar was supported by a block of A block of macroeconomic data from the U.S., reflecting business activity from S & P Global in January. Thus, the PMI (business activity index) of the services sector increased to 46.6 points from 44.7 points with a negative estimate of 44.5 points, the manufacturing sector increased to 46.8 points from 46.2 points, beating expectations of 46.1 points with a composite value of 46.6 points from 45.0 points, beating analysts' forecast of a decline to 44.7 points. Meanwhile the manufacturing activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond showed a sharp decline to -11.0 points from 1.0, disappointing analysts expectations for a negative trend of -4.0 points.Resistance levels: 0.9250, 0.9300, 0.9350 and 0.9400.Support levels: 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9036.USDCAD: The instrument is waiting for the decisions of the Canadian Central BankAt the end of the previous week the currency pair USDCAD decreased to the level of 1.3360, remaining in the marked area.Market participants continue to keep low activity, wanting to wait for the release of the final minutes of the meeting of the Canadian regulator on the further adjustment of the interest rate, announced for today. According to preliminary estimates, taking into account the weakening of price pressures, namely a decrease in consumer inflation in December to 6.3%, the HEA of Canada will lower the step of strengthening the interest rate to 0.25%, bringing the target value to 4.50%, which will update the record of the last 15 years. The outcome statements from regulators are particularly interesting for market participants as the market is waiting for hints that the central bank will pause the cycle of monetary tightening to cumulatively review earlier measures. With such an outcome the Canadian dollar will inevitably find itself under the influence of negative factors.Resistance levels: 1.3455, 1.3550, 1.3671.Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3183, 1.3060.Oil market analysisThe price of WTI crude oil reflects mixed trading, testing the 80.50 mark. Earlier the asset showed a slight decline, leaving its December 5 highs, reacting to the strengthening U.S. dollar, which received stimulus amid macroeconomic data on business confidence in January.Meanwhile, the attractiveness of "black gold" is still high, because bidders predict an increase in demand from the PRC due to the relaxation of restrictive measures against Covid-19 from December, stimulating the recovery of industrial and business activity in China. However, experts predict a decrease in the level of supply of hydrocarbons in the markets already by early spring, as in the Eurozone are announced expansion of restrictions on Russian oil supplies. The analysts assume that in the nearest future the EU will revise the limit price for Russian oil products and the sanctions will also affect the refined fuel.Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 82.62 and 83.50.Support levels: 79.81, 78.74, 78.00, 77.00.
Jan 25, 2023 Read
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