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US market: review and forecast for September 10, 2021

Nikkei 225, index, S&P 500, index, EURO STOXX 50, index, Hang Seng, index, Kospi, index, CSI 300, index, US market: review and forecast for September 10, 2021

Trading on September 9 on American stock markets again ended in the red. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.46%, to 4,493 points. The Dow Jones lost 0.43%, and the Nasdaq – 0.25%. Weak growth was shown by the financial (+0.25%), energy (+0.12%) and raw materials (+0.07%) sectors. The outsiders were representatives of the real estate sector (-2.12%) and healthcare (-1.17%).

Company news

  • Rocket Lab USA (RKLB: +37.3%) announced a deal to launch a group of 25 IoT satellites for the French company Kinéis.
  • Retailer Torrid Holdings (CURV: +32.4%) reported better than analysts' expectations and presented strong forecasts for the next quarter.
  • The quarterly results of the database provider for enterprise applications Couchbase (BASE: -19.3%) disappointed investors: although its revenue was slightly higher than expected, EPS fell short of consensus.

We expect

Today, global stock markets are showing mixed dynamics.

The US stock market continues to be pessimistic. They are mainly caused by concerns about the slowdown in the economy and the prospects of a reduction in QE. In addition, investors are concerned about the upcoming discussions by lawmakers of the new debt ceiling and the $3.5 trillion economic stimulus program.

The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits last week updated the minimum of March 2020 and amounted to 310 thousand, with a consensus of 340 thousand. The latest data on the number of open vacancies reflect the high demand for labor. The state of the labor market remains one of the two determining factors for the Fed when deciding on the timing and parameters of QE reduction. The investment community continues to believe that at one of the next FOMC meetings, it will be announced that asset purchases will be reduced by $15 billion per month starting from December of this year or from the first quarter of 2022.

  • Asian stock markets ended trading on September 10 in positive territory. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose by 1.91%, China's CSI 300 added 0.88%, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose by 1.25%. EuroStoxx 50 is up by 0.44%.
  • Risk appetite is uncertain. The yield on 10-year treasuries fell to 1.30%. The price of Brent futures rises above $72 per barrel. Gold is moving towards $1802 per troy ounce. In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4460-4510 points.

Macrostatistics

The producer price index for August will be published today. The market expects the growth rate to slow down to 0.6% mom from 1% mom in July.

Technical picture

The S&P 500 continues to move in an uptrend. The MACD line is below the signal line, negatively affecting the mood of buyers. The lower limit of the trend coincides with the 50-day average, which acts as the nearest support level.

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Other analytics by this trader

Weekly market review for December 6, 2021
US Dollar Index, index, NASDAQ 100, index, S&P 500, index, FTSE 100, index, Weekly market review for December 6, 2021 Yesterday, the yields of ten-year US Treasury securities fell by 10.1 bps and closed at 1.34% per annum. During the week, the yields of American treasuries decreased by 13 bps, today the yields of treasury ten-year securities have been growing since the opening and are at the level of 1.39%. US stock indexes declined on Friday – the S&P500 lost 0.84%, the Dow Jones industrial index fell 0.17%, the NASDAQ technology index fell 1.74%.Western markets declined last week, despite a positive start: all major US and European indices closed in the red, with the exception of the British FTSE 100, which added 1.11% by the end of the week. Investors are revising their forecasts due to the deteriorating epidemiological situation in the world, as well as the prospects of an early tightening of monetary policy in the United States. The reason for this was the "hawkish" statements by the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the beginning of last week about the "non-temporary" nature of inflation, as well as subsequent statements and comments by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, characterized by sharply tightened rhetoric. So, on Friday, the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, James Ballard, who will become a voting member of the FOMC in 2022, noted that record inflation and the achieved pace of economic recovery require the monetary authorities to abandon the stimulus program, because the possibility of a more rapid curtailment of the quantitative easing program will be considered at the next meetings.Macro statistics in the US actually indicate a moderate economic recovery: The country's GDP has already exceeded the peak reached before the outbreak of the pandemic, and the unemployment rate continues to decline. So, Friday's official data on the unemployment rate turned out to be better than expected (4.2% against the forecast of 4.5%), and the November ISM index of business activity in the US services sector also turned out to be higher than forecast - 69.1 points against the expected 65.0, which, coupled with the positive dynamics of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI), released earlier, indicates an increase in confidence and business activity.The past week was also eventful for the oil market. The growth of oil product stocks in the United States, a slight decline in crude oil reserves, uncertainty in the market caused by the new strain of the coronavirus "omicron", as well as the decision of OPEC+ to continue to increase production by 400 thousand barrels. in a month, oil quotes were forced to decline significantly. At the moment, the quotes went below the level of $ 66 / bbl, but by the end of the week they corrected closer to the level of $ 70 per barrel. February Brent crude futures opened today with growth and is trading at $71.58/bbl. We believe that the further dynamics of quotations will continue to be determined by the epidemiological situation, since there is still no unambiguous assessment of the impact of the omicron strain on the healthcare system of countries and the economy as a whole, but at the moment the level is $ 80/bbl. it is a limitation of the strengthening of oil quotes.As a result, it can be noted that the upcoming December meeting of the American regulator, which will be held on December 15, as well as the news background around the new strain of coronavirus, will serve as the main determinants of sentiment in both the stock and commodity markets. In addition, in the coming week, the focus will be on November inflation data in the United States, as well as statements by representatives of the Fed.
Dec 06, 2021 Read
Oil: the way to the bottom is open!
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Aug 20, 2021 Read
Two reasons to buy a dollar
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Aug 20, 2021 Read
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May 13, 2021 Read
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XRP (Ripple) collapses after new SEC charges
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May 05, 2021 Read
XRP jumped 36% — what's going on?
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Apr 27, 2021 Read
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