The market on the eve
At the auction on September 22, American stock markets showed positive dynamics. The S&P 500 index rose 0.95% to 4,396 points. The Dow Jones rose by 1.00%, the Nasdaq added 1.02%. Energy companies (+3.17%) looked better on the market against the background of rising oil prices, as well as issuers from the financial (+1.50%) and IT sectors (+1.40%). In the red zone, only representatives of the utilities (-0.11%) and communications (-0.01%) industries were closed.
Company news
- The quarterly results of the online retailer Stitch Fix (SFIX: +15.7%) exceeded market expectations amid high demand for women's clothing.
- InnovAge Holding (INNV: -24.9%) reported revenue well in the quarter, but EPS fell short of the consensus forecast.
- Electric vehicle manufacturer Workhorse Group (WKHS: -9.5%) announced the suspension of deliveries of its flagship C-1000 electric van due to the need to conduct additional tests and modifications.
We expect
Today, we expect the positive dynamics on the stock markets to continue. As previously expected, the Fed announced on the eve of maintaining the volume of asset repurchases at the current level, but warned that the reduction of the QE program may begin soon. The regulator's September statement emphasizes that the economy as a whole, as well as the labor market in particular, have significantly approached the Fed's targets. As for the tightening of monetary policy, the updated quarterly forecasts showed that the opinions of officials were equally divided on the feasibility of raising the rate next year. It is expected that the official announcement of the reduction of the QE program will take place at the FOMC meeting on November 2-3, and the direct curtailment will begin in November of this year and will be completed by mid-2022.
The market hopes that Congress will be able to reach an agreement on the debt ceiling and, as a result, avoid a government shutdown. However, economists and strategists are increasingly warning about increased uncertainty in this issue and the associated general risks for the economy (along with the risk of additional fiscal stimulus). According to Goldman Sachs, historically, the suspension of the US government as a whole has not had a significant impact on the dynamics of stocks. At the same time, the international agency Moody's warned that if it is not possible to agree on raising the "ceiling" of the national debt, it will hit the stock market hard and lead to a sharp jump in the unemployment rate.
- Asian stock markets continued to show mixed dynamics. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose by 1.19%, China's CSI 300 rose by 0.65%, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 0.67%. EuroStoxx 50 is up by 1.08%.
- The risk appetite is moderate. The yield of 10-year treasuries is 1.34%. The price for Brent futures exceeds $76 per barrel. Gold is trading around the $1,776 mark per troy ounce.
In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4390-4450 points.
Macrostatistics
Today, the Markit PMI indices for September will be published. The market expects a slight decline from the indicator for the services sector: from 55.1 last month to 54.8 in September. The manufacturing index, according to the consensus, will also decline: from 61.1 in August to 60.6 this month.
In addition, data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be released today. The consensus suggests that they will amount to 325 thousand against 332 thousand a week earlier.
Technical picture
The day before, the S&P 500 index tested the resistance area near 4,400 points. The RSI indicator indicates that the "bears" still own the initiative, but their strength is fading. We believe that the broad market index will show positive dynamics at the upcoming auctions and the technical rebound will continue.
In 2023, Johnson & Johnson will completely stop selling talc-based baby powder and focus on the production of corn starch powder. In 2020, sales of the product were stopped in the USA and Canada after numerous lawsuits against the manufacturer.The company was presented with about 38 thousand lawsuits from consumers and their relatives claiming that talc contains an admixture of asbestos having carcinogenic properties. J&J denies these allegations and claims that decades of scientific testing and regulatory approval have shown that talc is safe and does not contain asbestos. The company again confirmed this statement by announcing the discontinuation of the product.A Reuters investigation conducted in 2018 revealed that J&J had known for decades about the presence of asbestos in its talc-based products. Internal company documents, court testimony and other evidence showed that from at least 1971 until the early 2000s, raw talc and ready-made J&J powders sometimes tested positive for a small amount of asbestos.Johnson's Baby Powder, sold since 1894, has become a symbol of the company's family-friendly image. In J&J's internal marketing presentation from 1999, the baby products division, which was based on baby powder, was called "Asset No. 1" of J&J. Although baby powder accounted for only 0.5% of the American consumer health products business when the company took it off the shelves.Johnson & Johnson shares on the NYSE on August 11 ended trading at $167.14, losing 2.07%. 
The Australian Antitrust Authority reported that the country's Federal Court ordered Google (a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc) to pay a fine of 60 million Australian dollars ($42.7 million) for misleading users when collecting their personal location data.The court found that Google misled some customers about personal location data collected using their Android mobile devices between January 2017 and December 2018.Google misled users into believing that setting up "location history" on their Android phones was the only way to collect location data, whereas the web and app activity monitoring feature also allowed collecting and storing this data.Google Type C shares on NASDAQ on August 11 fell by 0.69% to $119.82 per paper, and on the premarket on August 12, they are currently adding 0.73% to $120.7. 
Entertainment giant The Walt Disney reported a profit of $1.41 billion (77 cents per share) in the 3rd fiscal quarter, compared with $918 million (50 cents per share) a year earlier. Adjusted earnings were $1.09 per share versus 80 cents. Revenue for the reporting period increased from $17.02 billion to $21.504 billion.The number of Disney+ subscribers increased by 14.4 million and exceeded the Netflix streaming service. It also became known that the cost of a monthly subscription to the ad-free service will increase by 38% in December 2022, to $10.99.The revenue of the Disney Parks, Experiences and Products division increased by 70% to $7.39 billion, and the revenue of Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution increased by 11% to $14.11 billion.Shares of The Walt Disney Company on the NYSE on August 10 rose by 3.98%, to $ 112.43 per paper, and on the premarket on August 11, quotes are adding 7.26% at the moment, to $ 120.59 per share. 
The market the day beforeThe US stock exchanges completed the trading session on August 10 with a steady growth. The S&P 500 rose 2.13% to 4210 points, the Nasdaq rose 2.89%, the Dow Jones added 1.63%. Raw materials and processing companies (+2.88%), as well as representatives of the discretionary goods sector (+2.87%) became the leaders of growth.Company newsThe reporting of Coinbase Global (COIN: +7.37%) for April-June turned out to be significantly weaker than forecasts in terms of revenue. In addition, the company finishes the second quarter in a row with a loss due to a drop in trading activity. Coinbase's own benchmarks for the number of active investors for the year have been reduced from 15 million to 9 million.Qorvo's quarterly revenue and profit (QRVO: +6.63%) decreased slightly less than the consensus expected. However, the company's management presented a weak guidance until the end of the year.Walt Disney's revenue (DIS: +3.98%) from amusement parks and streaming service for the second quarter exceeded market expectations. In terms of the number of subscribers, Disney+ has overtaken Netflix for the first time.We expectThe data on inflation in the US for July published the day before were positively received by the bidders. Consumer price growth slowed from June 9.1% to 8.5% YoY with a consensus of 8.7%. This was facilitated by a drop in car fuel prices by 7.7% last month. The recorded statement of inflation indicates that it has passed a local peak. As a result, the investment community begins to count on a less intensive tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. According to CME FedWatch, after the publication of CPI data, the futures market reduced the probability of an increase in the base rate by 75 bps. from 68% to 43%.At the same time, core inflation remains high due to rising rental costs and demand for services. Representatives of the Fed emphasize that in order to switch to measures stimulating economic growth, it is necessary to achieve a stable and consistent slowdown in inflation.Meanwhile, as a result of the recent rally, the S&P 500 recovered by 15% from the June low, returning to the levels of early May. Nasdaq rose by 20.8% as investor interest in technology sector companies recovers as treasury yields decline. However, the high-tech index needs to overcome the November high in order to confirm entry into a new phase of the bull market.The stock exchanges of the APR closed in the black on August 11. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 2.38%, China's CSI 300 rose 2.04%. Trading on the Japanese stock exchange was not held on the occasion of the holiday. EuroStoxx 50 has been declining by 0.09% since the opening of trading.Brent crude futures are trading at $97 per barrel. The price of gold is $1801 per troy ounce.In our opinion, the S&P 500 will hold the upcoming session in the range of 4170-4230 points.MacrostatisticsThe producer price index for July will be published today. The forecast assumes a slowdown in the growth rate from June 11.3% to 10.4% YoY.Sentiment IndexThe sentiment index rose from 44 to 49 points.Technical pictureThe S&P 500 showed the strongest intraday growth in the last two weeks. The benchmark has overcome the resistance level of 4,200 points, the next growth target for testing is the mark of 4,270 points. The RSI is in the overbought zone, but the MACD still does not signal a trend reversal. The nearest support level for the broad market index was the upper limit of the ascending channel at the level of 4100 points. 
U.S. manufacturer Ford Motor Co is raising prices for its F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck as the company faces rising raw material costs. Prices will be increased in the range of $6,000 to $8,500 depending on the option, with the cheapest Pro model now costing about $47,000. Customers who have ordered trucks awaiting delivery will not be affected by the increase.Last month, Ford said it expects commodity spending to rise by $4 billion this year. The cost of lithium used in batteries has jumped recently as car companies including Tesla Inc and Rivian Automotive Inc rush to secure supplies to avoid production disruptions.Earlier in June, General Motors Co also raised prices for its Hummer EV pickup truck to offset rising prices for raw materials and shipping.Ford shares on August 9 fell by 3.74% to $15.19 per share. 
Tesla sharesTesla CEO Elon Musk sold 7.9 million shares of the company for a total of $6.9 billion from August 5 to August 9, reports CNBC with reference to documents filed with the SEC.The sale of shares occurred a few weeks after the businessman abandoned the deal to acquire Twitter for $44 billion and subsequent lawsuits - as Bloomberg writes, the billionaire may need the money in case he is forced to close the deal.In his account on the social network, Musk answered the user's question in the affirmative about whether he would buy back shares if the deal did not take place.According to Bloomberg estimates, over the past ten months, the businessman has sold Tesla shares worth about $32 billion.Coinbase reportingthe American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase presented weak results for the second quarter of 2022. They also turned out to be worse than expected;revenue decreased by 60% compared to the same period last year and amounted to $803 million. Experts predicted $885.66 million;the company reported a record loss of $1.09 billion against a profit of $1.61 a year earlieron a per-share basis, the loss was $4.98 with a loss forecast of $2.42the monthly number of users who made transactions (MTU) decreased to 9 million compared to 9.2 million in the first quarter and 11.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2021trading volumes fell 2.1 times compared to the same period a year earlier and amounted to $217 billionmajor retail customers are "sitting on the sidelines" due to the economic downturn, said the company's chief operating officer Emily Choi in an interview with Bloomberg TVfor the third quarter, Coinbase management predicts a decrease in the monthly number of users who made transactions to 8 million and a further reduction in trading volumesagainst this background, the stock exchange's shares declined on the postmarket on August 9 by 5.5%, to $82.9 per paperOther important eventsUSA: data on the consumer price index (CPI) for July -17:30 GMTUSA: oil reserves in the USA for the past week according to EIA - 19:30 GMT 
Up to market openingSpirit Airlines: for the second quarter of 2022, EPS forecast - -$0.41, revenue - $1.34 billion.Fox: for the fourth quarter of 2022, EPS forecast is $0.76, revenue is $3.05 billion.Wix.com : for the second quarter of 2022, before the market opens, EPS - - $0.41(earnings per share), revenue - $344.34 millionAfter the market closesWalt Disney: for the third quarter of 2022, EPS forecast is $0.97, revenue is $20.99 billion.Red Robin Gourmet Burgers: for the second quarter of 2022, EPS forecast - -$0.1, revenue - $299.88 million.Coupang: for the second quarter of 2022, EPS forecast - -$0.11, revenue - $5.31 billionThe last day to buy shares for dividendsPetMed Express: dividends of $0.3 per share, payment date at the closing price of August 9 -August 19. Dividend yield -1.41%South State: dividends of $0.5 per share, payment date - August 19. Dividend yield - 0,6%CVR Energy: dividends of $3 per share, payment date - August 22. Dividend yield - 9.06%WestRock: dividends of $0.25 per share, payment date - August 24. Dividend yield - 0,61%Eaton: dividends of $0.81 per share, payment date - August 26. Dividend yield - 0.55%ADR Equinor: dividends of $0.30975 per share, payment date - August 26. Dividend yield - 0.83%FirstCash: dividends $0.33 per share, payment date - August 26. Dividend yield - 0.44%Heartland Financial: dividends of $0.27 per share, payment date - August 26. Dividend yield - 0.06%Lithia Motors: dividends $0.42 per share, payment date - August 26. Dividend yield - 0.002%Magna International: dividends of $0.45 per share, payment date - August 26. Dividend yield - 0.73%Starbucks: dividends 0.49 per share, payment date - August 26. Dividend yield - 0.58%Charles Schwab: dividends of $0.22 per share, payment date - August 26. Dividend yield - 0.32%Unitil: dividends $0.39 per share, payment date - August 26. Dividend yield - 0.69%Western Alliance: dividends $0.36 per share, payment date - August 26. Dividend yield - 0.005%Masco: dividends of $0.28 per share, payment date - August 29. Dividend yield - 0.55%John B Sanfilippo & Son: dividends of $2.25 per share, payment date - August 31. Dividend yield - 3.05%MSCI: Dividends of $1.25 per share, payment date - August 31. Dividend yield - 0.25%JM Smucker: Dividends of $1.02 per share, payment date is September 1. Dividend yield - 0.76%Middlesex Water: dividends $0.29. per share, payment date - September 1. Dividend yield - 0.32%Truist Financial: dividends $0.52 per share, payment date - September 1. Dividend yield - 1.04%Visa: dividends of $0.375 per share, payment date - September 1. Dividend yield - 0.18%WEC Energy: dividends of $0.7275 per share, payment date is September 1. Dividend yield - 0.69%Honeywell: dividends of $0.98 per share, payment date - September 2. Dividend yield - 0.5%Invesco: dividends of $0.1875 per share, payment date - September 2. Dividend yield - 1.05%Wingstop: dividends $0.19 per share, payment date - September 2. Dividend yield - 0.15%Walmart: dividends of $0.56 per share, payment date - September 6. Dividend yield - 0.43%Exxon Mobil: dividends of $0.88 per share, payment date - September 9. Dividend yield - 0.97%ADR AstraZeneca: dividends of $0.455 per share, payment date - September 12. Dividend yield - 0.69%Rush Enterprises: dividends of $0.21 per share, payment date is September 12. Dividend yield - 0.38%Corteva: dividends $0.15 per share, payment date - September 15. Dividend yield - 0.25%Bread Financial Holdings: dividends of $0.21 per share, payment date - September 16. Dividend yield - 0.55%ADR Shell: dividends of $0.5 per share, payment date - September 19. Dividend yield - 9.5%BP: dividends $0.06006 per share, payment date - September 23. Dividend yield - 0.2% 
On Sunday, the US Senate passed the so-called "anti-inflation law" with total funding for $750 billion in the areas of ecology, health and energy generation.Where will the money for the anti-inflation law come from?The developers of the bill plan to receive more than $700 billion over the next decade by fixing the minimum tax rate of 15% for corporations with an income of more than $1 billion, as well as introducing a 1% tax on share buybacks.In the Democrat-controlled Senate, the vote took place with a minimum margin of 51-50, now on August 12, the law must pass the House of Representatives, which is controlled by the same Democrats, and get to Biden's table.Where will the US government send the funds?Climate: Biden's environmental agendaThe largest funding package concerns Joe Biden's environmental program to achieve the election goal. The main provision of the program was to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% until 2030. In the USA, they are quite attentive to this direction, because if we leave the situation unchanged, by the end of the century the temperature in the country will be higher than in Dubai.Against the background of climate warming, forest fires have more than tripled in the states, which also increases government spending on planting new forests. This package provides subsidies and tax benefits for a wide range of industrial enterprises. To a greater extent, utility and manufacturing companies will benefit from the transition of equipment to more environmentally friendly energy sources, and manufacturers of equipment for solar and wind energy.While it is difficult to single out individual manufacturing companies, now their plans are more difficult to predict due to the recession. But there are also obvious brands like Enphase Energy (ENPH), Array Technologies (ARRY) and First Solar (FSLR).Medicine: subsidies for fixing pricesIn the medical direction, subsidies from the Medicare and Obamacare insurance programs will be introduced for medicines in pharmacies and prescriptions from doctors. Also, representatives of state insurance programs will be allowed to "bargain" with corporations to fix prices for the most necessary medicines like insulin. It is planned to start with ten names, expand the list to 15 by 2027 and bring it to 20 by 2029.Subsidies in this direction will not have a significant impact on manufacturers of medicines, but rather will act as additional social protection of the population.Electrification and electric cars: tax benefitsThe text of the bill provides for stimulation in the form of tax benefits for individuals. When transferring home electricity supply to a wide range of different sources of alternative energy, citizens of the country will receive a tax cut that in the United States is almost 50%. This will benefit both citizens themselves and utility companies like Chinese component manufacturer JinkoSolar (JKS) and energy generating Entergy Corporation (ETR), Clearway Energy (CWEN), Vistra Energy Corp. (VST).The incentive measures from the new law also apply to electric car manufacturers and will be useful for Ford (T), Tesla (TSLA), Toyota Motor (TM) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN).