Cristiano Ronaldo became the first football player in the world whose capital reached $1 billion during his career, moreover, he is the first player in all team sports who was able to earn such a sum. But in addition to Ronaldo's football career and fulfilling advertising contracts, Ronaldo is also engaged in investing in his own business, which covers various spheres of life.In this article, we propose to discuss how Ronaldo entered the list of billionaires and what investments he makes. Will it turn out that after some time Cristiano will enter the list of the richest people in the world, having succeeded not only in sports, but also in running a business?BusinessCristiano Ronaldo is a public figure, and we know that he spends his millions of royalties not only on luxury real estate and cars, but also invests money in business, which is absolutely right. After all, even the best football player in the world must retire sometime, and this does not mean that he will no longer be able to earn money.Here's what we know about his business empire. As of the summer of 2020, he officially became a billionaire. Ronaldo is the third athlete in the world after golfer Tiger Woods and boxer Floyd Mayweather, who managed to make such a fortune during his career. And at the same time, he is the first in the world to achieve this in team sports.Ronaldo's current salary is $31 million a year, which is quite good.But he became a billionaire thanks not to these fees, although they certainly affected, but at the expense of 323 million subscribers in social networks, on which the football player makes a lot of money.He has contracts with various brands, one of them is the well — known Nike. Facebook instagrammers pay for every advertising post on Instagram or Facebook, according to the terms of these contracts.The contract specifies how much each post is evaluated depending on the number of views, likes and other reactions of users of social networks. And the real price of one advertising publication is measured in tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars.According to various estimates, a football player can receive about $400,000 for one such placement.There are a lot of brands that Ronaldo advertises, there is even a metallurgical company from Egypt in this list. But the main source of income is still Nike, with which a lifetime contract has been signed since 2016, on the basis of which Ronaldo will remain the face of the brand even after the end of his football career.And during the validity of the contract, the football player should receive about one billion dollars.It was income. And now let's talk about how Ronaldo is trying to increase his funds. He probably does not invest in the stock market, well, or does not do it for large sums, otherwise we would know about it.By the way, $100 million invested in the S&P 500 in 2018 could give $25 million in profit, and the NASDAQ index would increase the initial amount by 56%. But the football star chose a different path — he creates his own businesses, and there are the following areas in his track record.Personal brand CR7, under which a line of perfumes, underwear, clothing and shoes is released. It is clear that Ronaldo is the face of these companies and personally advertises his own products.In addition, under the same brand, Cristiano operates his personal museum, there is a restaurant, a gym, two mobile games, but the main investment was hotels in different cities of the world, such as Paris, Madrid, New York and others.The investment amounts are impressive. So, $16 million was invested in Madrid, $44 million in Marrakech and as much as $66 million in a Paris hotel.It can be argued that the hotel business is the main bet of Ronaldo.Messi also has three hotels, but in resorts such as Ibiza. And we add that Ronaldo entered the hotel business as a 50-50 partner, but Messi owns 100% of his hotels.Ronaldo also has a separate rental business. He rents out elite aircraft.ConclusionsLet's start with the answer to the question why does Ronaldo produce clothes, buy hotels and rent luxury planes? Here he follows the first rule of the investment checklist from Warren Buffett, according to which you need to invest money in the business that you understand. It is obvious that Ronaldo, being a famous football player, constantly traveled and stayed in various hotels, while often using the services of airlines and advertising clothes. And it was in these areas of business that he decided to invest his money.But there was one extremely big puncture in Ronaldo's business strategy: all these activities were created for carefree times when the economy is growing, incomes are increasing and people are spending money on travel, clothing and air travel. But the coronacrisis broke this trend, and according to UN estimates, the tourism sector lost about $ 320 billion. And as we can see today, more than six months have passed, and the world has not returned to the usual pace of life and you can not even dream about another year.In addition, the problem of the coronavirus has led to the fact that people simply began to spend less. It was as if a veil was lifted from many people's eyes and they realized that they really needed much less in reality, and most of the spending was a tribute to the consumer economy.We don't know the statistics on Ronaldo's hotels, but the large international chain Hilton has laid off 22% of its employees, and the remaining staff are working reduced shifts or are on unpaid leave. It is obvious that the coronavirus went through Cristiano's business in a similar way.In defense of Ronaldo, it is worth saying that no one except the reptiloids had any idea about the coronacrisis. But if his business was more diverse, the same mobile applications — he was also engaged in them, then we would start the article with the words that the football star will very soon enter the top richest people in the world and will push Warren Buffett there. But it seems that this is not the case, and the further growth of Ronaldo's fortune will be associated with his sports career, and not with investments, which are now under very great threat.For those who believe that it is wrong to compare Ronaldo and Buffett, we note that although old Warren was never an outstanding athlete, and during his youth these same athletes did not have millions of royalties, but he had a father who was a politician and an entrepreneur, thanks to which, at the age of 11, little Warren bought his first shares. Back in 1941, this was a very important bonus for further development, so it is still unknown who had the best starting positions. And in fact, the moment is much more important, not how you earned money, but how you used it to increase your fortune.The essence of this article is that when you are going to invest in some industry and invest the bulk of your capital in it, you definitely need to consider a negative scenario.Ask yourself the question whether it may happen that tomorrow this product or service will be useless to anyone. And even if the answer option seems impossible, it should still be taken into account. After all, the history of 2020 clearly showed how the tourism and aviation industries at one point became unprofitable from the most promising investments. But the world has moved even more towards digitalization of everything, because online is at a distance, and, therefore, it is ...
AUDUSD: RBA has decided on the future course of monetary parametersLocal strengthening of the Australian currency allows the AUDUSD pair to test the 0.6699 mark."Bullish" momentum finds support in the RBA's decision to adjust the interest rate from 3.60% to 3.85% and the FX residual indicator to 3.75%, contrary to analysts' forecasts that the agency would leave the key indicator unchanged. According to comments by Philip Lowe, the head of the regulator, in an accompanying letter, the previous meeting was marked by officials' decision to take a wait-and-see approach to assessing the impact of inflation on the economy. As noted by the Board of Governors, consumer prices have slowed considerably, but it will take at least two years for consumer prices to return to the upper allowable threshold of 3.35%. In turn, the national labor market continues to be affected by contradictory factors and unemployment is at its lowest point in 50 years. Thus, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to resume its price correction activity by tightening monetary parameters, and Lowe said that the hawkish vector will be maintained in the future, if necessary.Resistance levels: 0.6740 and 0.6850.Support levels: 0.6670, 0.6560.GBPUSD: pair intends to update the maximum peak of May 2022Successful fixing of asset positions above 1.2450 the GBPUSD pair has taken the May 2022 peak at 1.2650 as a target."The Brit is strengthening ahead of the Bank of England meeting announced for May 11, at the end of which analysts expect to hear about an increase in the interest rate. The officials may take a brave step and strengthen the cost of borrowing by 0,50% at once because the consumer prices still reflect a double-digit figure. The pound will get additional impetus for support in case the market estimates are justified, which will help develop a long-term upward trend. Meanwhile, analysts at the International Monetary Fund note the need for caution on the part of the Bank of England and the ECB in raising interest rates, given the potential risks that could increase financial stress and also have an impact on Treasury yields. Economists advocate the need for a flexible approach, not ruling out the possibility of a repeat of the banking crisis, which may repeat the March collapse in the U.S. financial sector in March, which was a complete surprise to the market and customers.Resistance levels: 1.2650 and 1.2900.Support levels: 1.2268, 1.2040, 1.1800.Crude Oil market analysisNorth American light crude oil WTI is in a downward trend at 75.62 amid a published list of OPEC+ cartel countries that have announced production cuts for the period from May to December this year on a voluntary basis.According to preliminary estimates, additional production cuts will cumulatively reach 1.66 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia will take the first positions on reduction of production by 500.0 thousand barrels per day, Iraq will reduce production by 211.0 thousand, UAE - by 144.0 thousand, Kuwait - by 128.0 thousand. In its turn, Kazakhstan will reduce production rate by 78.0 thousand barrels per day, Algeria - by 48.0 thousand barrels, Oman - by 40.0 thousand and Gabon - by 8.0 thousand. According to OPEC+ position, such correction will help support price stability on the trading floors, protecting the price of raw materials from strong volatility.Resistance levels: 78.70, 84.60.Support levels: 73.80, 67.00.Analysis for S&P 500 indexThe key US economic index is testing 4167.0.The US stock market resumes attempts to strengthen the upward movement of the indicators, using the emerging phase of corporate report publications. Pfizer Inc., Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Starbucks Corp. are scheduled to report today, May 2. The obvious "anchor" for the US market is the pharmaceutical sector, and experts expect the quarterly revenue figure for Pfizer Inc. to drop to $16.60 billion from the previous $24.29 billion, and then the share yield to drop to $0.9827, ending a two-year trend of positive momentum.Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. is fighting vigorously and decisively against competitors for new consumer market share, maintaining revenue in the $5.3 billion area. The paper may bounce back slightly to $0.56, but the correction is expected to be seasonal in nature.Support levels: 4130.0, 4050.0.Resistance levels: 4200.0, ...
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The world economy is constantly changing. In December 2022 we were forecasted a terrible recession. But in early 2023, the economic data says otherwise: the markets have taken off and investors are looking positively into the future.What's Happening to the U.S. EconomyLet's start with the US. The U.S. economy is in serious turmoil. Take a look at the S&P 500 Index since the beginning of the year. Do you see this constant up and down movement? That's because investors have stopped believing in the Fed. And they think the Central Bank won't keep monetary policy tight. But let's see:The U.S. interest rate is 4.5-4.75%. In January, the markets expected it not to rise beyond 5%.But in January, inflation was already slowing not as much as experts had expected. That said, demand in the U.S. continues to rise. So the American consumer does not suffer from high prices. Especially since the U.S. has the strongest labor market in 60 years.The latest macro data show that the Fed has no reason to slow down its policy. So a rise in the U.S. market is premature.We predict that the Fed's fight against inflation will drag on, because price increases are steady. So the Fed rate will get to 5.25-5.5% and stop there. And at the same time, the regulator will drive the U.S. economy into recession. Otherwise, inflation in the U.S. will not be stopped. Most likely in March at the Fed meeting, officials will be tough. And then the markets will come to their senses.What will happen to the dollar in 2023.The dollar itself will be strong. Tough Fed action will keep the DXY near 100 points. It will be difficult to rise above the highs of September, as the policies of other central banks are getting tougher than those of the United States. Just look at the changes in Japan, where the era of super easy money is coming to an end. And the ECB's policy is also tough. So let's talk about the euro area.What's happening to Europe's economyEurope's problems are similar to those in the U.S., only the inflation rate in the Union is much higher. Investors and officials are happy to see that price growth in the EU is slowing rapidly: in October, it was 10.6%, but now it's 8.5%.Eurozone industrial production fell 1.1% in December 2022. The economy is slowing down amid high inflation, which is exactly what the ECB is fighting.The regulator raised interest rates by 0.5% in early February. The same increase is planned for March. And even then the rate will not stop rising. Such statements from the ECB have been trying to dampen market optimism. Where is the positivity coming from? Recession is likely to be avoided: the energy crisis is gone and the supply chain is recovering.Since the beginning of the year, euro zone blue chips have been rising as strongly as the U.S. market. But inflation is still high and monetary policy is tight. So it's too early to rejoice.In addition, the energy crisis can come back to the EU at any time. Because Russia is cutting oil production and OPEC is not going to increase production. Prices will go up - Goldman Sachs predicts oil at $105.What will happen to the euro in 2023The European currency looks stronger than the American one. Exactly because the ECB policy now looks tougher than the Fed actions. Which we have already talked about. Now let's move on to another global economy, China.What's going on with China's economyThere are 2 main topics of conversation in China right now: the opening of the economy after covid restrictions and tensions with the U.S.China has officially "decisively defeated" COVID. So restrictions in the Celestial Empire should no longer stifle production and disrupt supply chains. China's opening promises to be massive. The UN and IMF expect 4.8% growth, while Morgan Stanley expects 5.7%.During the lockdowns, the Chinese have accumulated the money to unleash demand. Household deposits exceed 100% of last year's GDP, The Economist noted. Inflation in China rose to 2.1% in January, showing a pickup in demand.Markets are counting on China to pull the entire global economy up with it. On its own, China has a chance to take off - the covid shackles will fall after all. But external pressures could stifle growth.High inflation in the U.S. forces the Fed to keep rates high in the economy. And that means business activity will slow against this backdrop, and so will demand for Chinese goods.We predict that the Chinese central bank may be stiff in its policy. The population has large savings, demand for exports is declining, and inflation is rising. And because of this, China's market growth may slow down. China is now highly dependent on Western demand and it is the main beacon for the Celestial market.What will happen to the yuan in 2023The yuan is also a headache and uncertainty. Will China be able to successfully open up? Will there be a global recession? It is still unclear how China will survive U.S. restrictions. The decline in trade with the U.S. is negative for the renminbi.But a big positive could be the use of the RMB in international trade. First of all oil. The more countries move away from the dollar and euro to the yuan, the stronger it will be.In the near future the yuan is unlikely to strengthen - there is nothing to strengthen it on. Even it will gradually decline: demand for Chinese goods is decreasing and geopolitical tensions are growing.World economic outlook for 2023The outlook for the global economy is not good. Growth is slowing - the problems are starting in the West and dragging the East with them. After all, economies are still very closely integrated, no matter what political slogans about the "polarity" of the world say.Markets behave ambiguously. And at such moments, distortions and inefficiencies appear - someone doesn't know something, someone doesn't understand something. You can make money or lose money on this.We make forecasts because we are constantly watching macroeconomics and market data. Don't take them as a signal to act, but as the opinion of our team. But don't forget - look at the economy and markets more broadly, don't let short-term fluctuations distort your perception and your ...
Today we want to look at predictions from a slightly different angle - who should we trust when it comes to predictions of the future? Who was right in their predictions for 2022 and who was totally wrong? Let's find out!Traditionally, let's start with Wall Street.What did the investment houses forecast for 2022?By the end of 2021, the value of the S&P500 index reached 4,800 points. The investment houses said the markets would continue to rise.The investment banks' forecasts for the S&P 500 index for 2022 were as follows:The index ended up down 1,000 points for the year, a drop of more than 20 per cent.Only two banks were "toxic" pessimists: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.They did not guess the magnitude of the fall. But at least they pointed in a downward direction. Morgan Stanley was the closest to the truth out of all the investment houses.What is the outlook for banks in 2023?What is BANK OF AMERICA's forecast for 2023The main shock of 2023 is a recession. Bank of America strategists believe that for the US, the Eurozone and the UK a recession is "almost inevitable". The rest of the world, apart from China, will also weaken. In the US, the start of a "moderate recession" is expected in the first half of the year. However, as Bank of America writes, "there is a risk that it will start later". The bank strategists thus expect the first half of the year to be good for bond investments and the second half to be interesting for equities. However, this is as far as I understand, if the recession is not delayed, but starts in the first half of the year.With China it is different - it will wake up from covid hibernation. But very unevenly. Most restrictions will not be lifted until the second half of the year. Chinese equities are likely to strengthen.What about the S&P? Analysts at the bank expect it to end 2023 at 4,000. That is roughly where it is now...US rates are expected to fall by the end of 2023 - both two-year and ten-year treasuries should end the year at 3.25%. The industries which suffered from rising rates in 2022 could benefit in 2023.After a historically bad year for industrial metals in 2022, cyclical and long-term factors will lead to higher metals prices in 2023, with copper prices rising by around 20%!!!Oil, according to Bank of America estimates, will also remain high. Factors that will contribute to this: Russian sanctions (I wonder what they mean by "Russian sanctions" - sanctions against Russian oil or our retaliatory sanctions?), low oil reserves, China opening up and OPEC ready to cut production if demand weakens. The bottom line is that with all these factors, Brent crude will average $100/bbl during 2023 and rise to $110/bbl in the second half of the year.Long: 30-year Treasuries, Chinese stocks, gold and silver, bonds, US Small cap, European banks.Short: Dollar, US technology sector, private equity.What is MORGAN STANLEY's forecast for 2023So, the bank's strategists write: "The general consensus is that corporate profits will start to collapse in early 2023, followed by the stock market. But the economy has proved too resilient". So Morgan Stanley expects earnings to fall slowly - to spite the bears.In fact they repeat the forecast of Bank of America - they expect a delay in the start of the recession until the second half of the year.Attitudes towards mega-cap stocks are sceptical. Here's what they write: "At their peak in 2000, the 5 largest tech stocks accounted for 20% of the S&P500 index. These were Microsoft, Cisco Systems, Nokia, Intel and IBM. These same 5 stocks bottomed out 5 years later and already accounted for 5% of the index.At their peak in 2022, the top 5 companies accounted for 25% of the S&P500. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Tesla. But are they heading towards 5% of the index now?"Markets underestimate the risk of recession, stocks could fall another 22%.By the end of 2023, expect the S&P 500 to be at 3900 - even lower than its current value.Like Bank of America, predict a rise in Chinese equities. Expect global GDP growth to slow in 2023 as central banks tighten inflationary pressures. The exception is China, where the spring 2023 opening should lead to a significant recovery in economic activity in H2 2023.What did the Wall Street Gurus predict for 2022?Many of them said a correction in the stock market was inevitable. But there were those who were wrong.For example, Buffett's associate Charlie Munger was betting on Alibaba. Those who followed Munger were clearly wrong.Ray Dalio also bet on China. He also advised to get rid of cache. Wrong too, in fact.On the other hand, his reasoning was quite lengthy, which is hard to pin down. For example, he did advise buying inflation-linked bonds.Larry Williams is another prediction outsider. He is a famous trader with 60 years of trading experience. He created a technical indicator, Williams %R, which is used to estimate the overbought and oversold state of the market. A cobbler without boots - he could not estimate the overbought market.Said that "All markets will rise and be higher than at the beginning of the year, but gold doesn't stand a chance".Who predicted the 2022 market?Jim Rogers predicted the problems of 2022Jim Rogers is Soros' former hedge fund partner Quantum. What did Rogers say?He said - verbatim - "something bad is going to happen, but I'm not selling anything yet".Rogers warned that the US market had actually been rising since 2009. It is the longest growth in US history. But the market can't grow forever, which means there must be a rate hike and a downturn in 2022.Silver, though, has been falling in value for most of the year... That said, it's unclear exactly when Rogers was going to buy silver... Perhaps in this first half of the year's downturn.In addition to silver, Jim recommended investing in agriculture. What does he predict for 2023?Recession, debt crisis, US-European disputes due to energy shortages. Rogers also does not believe in price ceilings and embargoes and believes that Europe will still continue to buy oil and gas from Russia - just in a grey area.Mark Mobius is another soothsayer of the yearPredicted cryptocurrencies falling in 2022, increased tensions between the US and China and lower markets in general"Expect the market to decline and don't panic," he saidHe also said that India would become the new China.Mark Mobius - worked for over 30 years at Franklin Templeton Investments, specialising in emerging markets - including Russia. He was even an independent director of LUKOIL. In 2018, he founded his own company.What does he predict for the year 2023A word on crypto. Bitcoin, according to Mobius, could collapse 40% to $10,000 in 2023."With higher interest rates, the appeal of owning or buying bitcoins or other cryptocurrencies becomes less attractive because simply owning the coin does not generate interest," Mobius said."Of course, there have been a few offers with interest rates of 5% or higher for crypto deposits, but many of these companies offering such rates have gone bankrupt in part because of FTX. As these losses grow, people are wary of holding cryptocurrency for the sake of interest."He is also an advocate of investing in India. He believes it is the Indian equity market that is most interesting in 2023.Who else has guessed?Saxo Bank with their crazy forecasts have hit the bullseye this year. Much of their shocking predictions have come true. They predicted a weakening of the ESG agenda, a drop in Facebook and other mammoth quotes, high inflation, weakening of ties between China and the US, and a new Cold War.We already talked about what they predicted for 2023 in one of the videos.The Rothschilds also got it right with their magazine The Economist. Remember the weird cover showing bitcoin and other assets falling down the rabbit hole. Now let's take a closer look at their ...
FOREX Fundamental analysis for EUR/USD on November 14, 2022The sharp strengthening of stock indices, and through the correlation of currencies and risky assets is reminiscent of the March 2020 rally. Then it all turned out to be unfounded fantasies of investors at the peak of the COVID pandemic. Now, once again, markets are rising not on facts, but on expectations.Investors used to fear that the Fed's aggressive tightening of monetary policy would send the U.S. economy into a deep recession, but Friday's inflation report, which showed consumer price growth slowing from 8.2% to 7.7% and core inflation from 6.6% to 6.3%, showed that the Fed's actions are beginning to bear the desired fruit.After the report was released, Treasury yields plummeted and the dollar showed its worst performance since the 2008-2009 global crisis. The S&P 500 is up 5.5%, EUR/USD has unwound its bearish spring, and the Dollar index has rebounded sharply from the highs of the last 20 years.Nevertheless, it's a little early to count on a trend reversal for the dollar. The MUFG believes that the market reaction to the release was excessive and soon EUR/USD will return to the decline. It's just like in August this year when after the inflation report for July the S&P500 rose by 2.1% and bond yields fell But investors quickly realized that the CPI slowdown was temporary and the dollar index quickly regained its laurels as a forex trading leader.This time, the serious decline in consumer prices suggests that the peak of inflation is behind us. This will increase the likelihood that the Fed will limit its rate hike to 50 basis points in December.At the same time we should not forget that the Fed, which has been working hard to tighten financial conditions, would not like the dollar to collapse. My guess is that the FOMC will soon launch a "hawkish" attack and EUR/USD will leave the area of 3-month highs. Nevertheless, such sharp movements make us adjust our forex trading strategy. Now we will focus on short-term selling and medium-term buying. A rebound from support at 1.027 and 1.022 is considered to form long positions.Read more: Basic knowledge of fundamental ...
The annual compensation of CEOs in the United States is breaking records, despite a shortage of workers and inflation. According to MyLogIQ (a provider of analytical products of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission), the median salary of executives from the S&P 500 companies reached $14.2 million last year. The salary growth of the majority of company executives was at least 11%.Half of the companies also said that the salary of ordinary employees increased by 3.1% last year, and a third of the companies reported that employee compensation, on the contrary, decreased between 2020 and ...
The past year ended very successfully for the American market: the S&P 500 rose by 26.9%, although initially a more modest increase was expected. So, our optimistic (!) scenario included an increase in the broad market index to only 10%. However, the US stock markets got off to a good start and remained on top with the support of the adoption of infrastructure reform. The economic recovery also turned out to be more active than we expected, and this helped companies to increase revenue and profit more intensively. At the same time, the development of all these trends contributed to the acceleration of inflation, which went far beyond the expectations of the Fed, the market and our forecasts. It was inflation that became the most discussed topic last year and will absolutely remain at the top of the agenda in the first half of 2022.To bring inflation under control, the Fed thought about reducing the balance sheet only at the beginning of this year: even in December 2021, there was no talk about it. The reduction of the balance sheet, combined with a sharper than originally planned increase in rates, can act as a reliable way to curb inflation expectations. These expectations are formed mainly on stock exchanges, which excludes their negative impact on the economy in general and on the labor market in particular. A steady positive trend in the labor market is indicated by data for October, when the number of open vacancies reached a record 11.03 million, 1.5 times exceeding the number of applicants. This ratio was last observed 50 years ago. Together with an increase in logistics efficiency, the restoration of production capacities and the gradual opening of the economy, this will lead to a gradual decrease in inflation. Of course, we have repeatedly talked about the upcoming opening of the economy after the pandemic during the second half of 2021, but this event is delayed due to the appearance of new COVID-19 strains. And yet, the longer the pandemic continues, the closer its end is.After a negative start to the year for most securities in the technology sector and a general correction, investors should consider closing hedging positions that I advised opening at the end of last year. Now is the time to buy a wide range of stocks with a focus on "value" and "quality" companies. The intensive growth of the economy serves as the basis for optimistic expectations regarding revenue and profit. That is why the upcoming reporting season is the strongest driver of the growth of quotations of representatives of the real sector of the economy. Of course, there is also a trend to reduce the cash flows of companies, since there is no effect of a low base and economic growth begins to slow down. However, it is predicted that the S&P 500 companies will increase sales by almost 15%, and their earnings per share will increase by 21.5%. Among the leaders will be the energy, raw materials and industrial sectors, as well as the segment of secondary necessities. The momentum for an upward movement in their quotes will be provided by strong results for the fourth quarter and optimistic forecasts for January-March. Separately, I would like to note the financial sector, which will not be able to demonstrate a record increase in revenue and profit, but industry forecasts for 2022 may become one of the most optimistic, taking into account the plans of the Federal Reserve to actively raise the key ...
Lilium – do not be overly optimisticLilium is a German startup that is developing an air taxi-a fully battery-powered vehicle with a vertical take-off and landing function, whose speed will reach 281 km/h at an altitude of 3 km. The flight range is 250 km, so the company aims to completely change the current situation in the field of intercity communication. The carrier's shares appeared on the market on September 15 through a deal with SPAC. It was possible to collect only $584 million instead of the expected $830 million, as 65% of the holders of SPAC shares returned securities that began trading below $10. After Lilium distributes the debts and pays all the commissions, only about $400 million will be on the balance sheet. The first launch of the product is planned for 2024. It should be a seven-seat eVTOL jet, after which a 16-seat model should appear. The number of seats distinguishes Lilium from other companies that focus more on intra-city transportation using 2-4 local vehicles. In August, Lilium entered into a strategic partnership with the leading Brazilian air carrier Azul S. A, under which it undertakes to deliver 220 aircraft worth $1 billion. In addition to partnerships with major carriers, Lilium plans to develop its own network: management expects revenue of $1.7 billion in 2026 and $3.2 billion in 2027. The shares from vehicle sales and from network management should be approximately the same – 50% each. According to preliminary calculations, each aircraft should bring partners about $5 million a year, at a cost of $2.5 million. A ticket for a flight from Philadelphia to New York will cost about $170. Buying shares of a company that will start receiving revenue only in 2026 looks too risky. Especially against the background of the failure of many other players who promised to bring revolutionary ideas to life, like Nikola Motors.Asana shares are the most overbought securities on the marketSince the beginning of the month, Asana shares have risen by more than 55%. Recall that the company is developing solutions for managing team projects, and its founder is one of the first Facebook developers – Dustin Moskowitz. The main consumers of Asana services are programmers who work on a large task, as well as sellers and marketers. Of course, the transition to remote work had an extremely positive impact on financial results. It is important to understand that the Asana product is not unique at all. There are many competitors on the market from Salesforce to Airtable, Trello and SmartSheet. At the same time, the EV/S ratio exceeds 45x – these are simply unrealistically high values, even taking into account today's huge demand for “growing” stocks. It is incredibly risky to hold ASAN shares in an environment where there is more and more talk about the overheating of the market. In the second quarter of 2021, revenue increased by 72% YoY, to $89.5 million. Even more impressive is that the rate of revenue growth has been increasing since the third quarter of 2020. For example, in the previous quarter, revenue increased by 61% YoY. The number of ”paid" customers increased by 7 thousand, to 107 thousand, while the number of users spending more than $50 thousand a year doubled and reached 598. The ARR indicator is 118%, which means that existing customers started paying 18% more than a year ago. Among users with expenses above $50 thousand, this figure is even higher – ...