USD/CHF: Swiss regulator expects further decrease in inflationThe USD/CHF pair shows a multidirectional movement, remaining near the 0.8450 level: the exchange rate is being adjusted after a two-day rise, which allowed the US dollar to move away from local lows recorded on September 18.The franc is supported by the latest macroeconomic indicators: the business activity index calculated by the Association of Supply Managers (SVME) rose in September from 49.0 to 49.9 points, exceeding the projected 48.2 points. Retail sales are also growing in Switzerland: in August, this figure increased from 2.9% to 3.2%, with expectations at 2.6%. Inflation statistics for September will be published tomorrow at 08:30 (GMT+2), and experts predict that annual inflation will remain at 1.1%. In his first speech, the new head of the Swiss National Bank, Martin Schlegel, noted that the regulator positively assesses the prospects for further reduction in inflation, which slowed to 1.1% in August and remains in the target range of 0.0-2.0% over the past 15 months. According to forecasts of 85.0% of analysts, at the December meeting, the regulator will raise the interest rate to 0.75%.Resistance levels: 0.8481, 0.8500, 0.8517, 0.8541.Support levels: 0.8450, 0.8429, 0.8400, 0.8365.USD/CAD: pair stabilizes in anticipation of market catalystsDuring Asian trading, the USD/CAD pair shows heterogeneous fluctuations, remaining around the 1.3490 mark.The Canadian labor market report at the end of the week is not expected, which narrows investors' attention to macroeconomic statistics. Earlier, traders drew attention to the growth of the index of business activity in the Canadian manufacturing sector from S&P Global, which increased from 49.5 to 50.4 points in September. At the same time, the similar American ISM index in the manufacturing sector remained at 47.2 points over the same period, which did not meet expectations of its growth to 47.5 points. As noted by Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, Canada's real GDP in the third quarter showed growth of less than 1.5%, which is lower than last year's figures and indicates a slowdown in the economy. Porter added that such a slowdown could ease inflationary pressures, which reached the 2.0% target in August. The Bank of Canada has carried out three interest rate cuts since June, and fresh macro data reinforces the likelihood of a sharper 50 basis point cut. However, employment data remains a key factor for the regulator.Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3524, 1.3550, 1.3582.Support levels: 1.3475, 1.3457, 1.3440, 1.3419.USDX: market reacts to the speech of the head of the Fed at the NABE meetingThe USDX index shows multidirectional fluctuations, remaining near the 101.00 level and waiting for new factors that can affect its dynamics. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar showed strong growth, which was due to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.In his speech, Powell noted that the Fed is considering further easing of monetary policy by the end of the year, proposing a gradual reduction in interest rates by 25 basis points per meeting. He also stressed that the 3.0% GDP growth in the second quarter is a good indicator for maintaining a stable level of consumer spending. However, further actions by the regulator will depend on incoming economic data, and if pressure on the labor market increases, the Fed may reconsider its position towards more significant easing.The dollar was also supported by data on the number of JOLTS vacancies: in August, this figure rose to 8,040 million, exceeding the forecast of 7,655 million. On Friday, the final report on the labor market for September will be published, and the number of new jobs is projected to decrease to 140.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% and hourly wage growth is expected to slow to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Today, investors' attention will be focused on ADP's private sector employment data for September, where an increase from 99.0 thousand to 120.0 thousand jobs is expected.Resistance levels: 101.20, 101.67, 102.00, 102.23.Support levels: 100.80, 100.35, 100.00, 99.50.Gold market analysisYesterday, gold in the XAU/USD pair rose by 1.18%, reaching the level of 2663.37. This rise was caused by the news of Iran's attack on Israel, which was a response to the elimination of the leaders of the Hezbollah and Hamas groups. Against the background of increased geopolitical tensions, gold may test the historical maximum of 2685.00. However, in case of a decrease in tension, a correction and a decrease in the value of the asset are likely. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Tehran had completed a retaliatory operation, but threatened more serious actions in case of new provocations, to which Israel promised a tough response.Gold continues to show a confident upward trend. According to a report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the volume of net speculative positions in gold reached 315.4 thousand, which is higher than the previous figure of 310.1 thousand. The number of open transactions on the asset is at a four-year high. The balance of the bulls amounted to 282,912 thousand contracts, while the bears had only 28,071 thousand. Last week, buyers opened 9.616 thousand contracts, while sellers opened 7,404 thousand, which indicates high interest from investors.Resistance levels: 2685.00, 2750.00.Support levels: 2546.00, 2471.00, ...
Рыночные корреляции казались несинхронными, поскольку трейдеры готовились к отчету по индексу потребительских цен в США и серии выступлений членов FOMC, которые повлияли на политические ожидания ФРС и общие настроения.Биткойн вновь поднялся до новых рекордных максимумов, в то время как сырая нефть колебалась в ответ на опасения, связанные с добычей.Анализ экономических показателей за 13 ноябряКвартальный индекс цен на заработную плату в Австралии в третьем квартале составил 0,8% кв/кв (ожидалось 0,9%, ранее было 0,8%).Член Комитета по ценным бумагам и биржам Кэтрин Манн предположила, что инфляция не была “побеждена”, указывая на то, что политики могут подождать со снижением ставокОбщий индекс потребительских цен в США в октябре составил 0,2% м/м, как ожидалось; годовой индекс потребительских цен вырос с 2,4% до 2,6%, как ожидалось; Базовый индекс потребительских цен совпал с ожиданиями на уровне 0,3% м/м.Члены FOMC призвали к осторожности в отношении будущих снижений ставок:Официальный представитель FOMC Кашкари отметил, что денежно-кредитная политика, вероятно, удерживает инфляционные ожидания на прежнем уровнеОфициальный представитель FOMC Логан подчеркнул необходимость осторожности при принятии решения о степени снижения ставокОфициальный представитель FOMC Мусалем выступил за умеренно ограничительную политику, пока инфляция остается выше целевого уровня в 2%.Член FOMC Шмид заявил, что “еще предстоит выяснить”, насколько еще ФРС может снизить ставкиБаланс федерального бюджета США снизился с профицита в 64,3 млрд долларов до дефицита в 257,5 млрд долларов (ожидаемый дефицит в 226,4 млрд долларов).Индекс цен на продовольствие в Новой Зеландии снизился на 0,9% м/м в октябре после предыдущего роста на 0,5%Изменение цен на рынкеТорги на азиатской сессии в среду прошли в беспорядке, когда дело дошло до корреляции рисков, поскольку высокодоходные активы, такие как сырьевые товары, акции США и криптовалюты, двигались в разных направлениях. В частности, золото и нефть марки WTI выросли на бычьей ноте, в то время как биткоин и акции снизились.Доходность казначейских облигаций и доллар начали снижаться в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен в США, который совпал с ожиданиями и спровоцировал первоначальное снижение на фоне фиксации прибыли. Менее оптимистичные комментарии FOMC позволили паре BTC/USD набирать обороты на пути к новым историческим максимумам, близким к $ 94 тыс., в то время как индекс S&P 500, похоже, также выиграл от публикации индекса потребительских цен, но в конечном итоге закрылся без изменений.Между тем, цены на нефть марки WTI смогли восстановиться после резкого падения, возможно, вызванного перебоями в добыче из-за урагана "Рафаэль" на побережье Мексиканского залива. Однако цены на золото снизились на 0,64%, вероятно, из-за роста доходности и укрепления доллара.Поведение валютного рынка: курс доллара США по отношению к основным валютамДоллар, по-видимому, торговался осторожно в преддверии публикации индекса потребительских цен, при этом основные пары демонстрировали умеренный рост в течение азиатских и лондонских рыночных часов.Фактические результаты показали, что общая и базовая инфляция соответствовали ожиданиям рынка, что привело к некоторой фиксации прибыли, прежде чем доллар вырос по всем направлениям. Менее "голубиный" комментарий президента ФРС Миннеаполиса Кашкари, возможно, также способствовал укреплению доллара, поскольку он признал, что ожидания в отношении денежно-кредитной политики удерживают ценовое давление на прежнем уровне.Доллар США смог еще больше укрепиться, поскольку член FOMC Мусалем укрепил осторожную позицию в отношении будущих снижений ставок. Несмотря на то, что ралли, похоже, пошло на спад после выступления члена FOMC Шмида, в котором обсуждалась некоторая неопределенность в отношении путей будущего снижения ставок, оно все равно завершилось в плюсе по сравнению с остальными валютными парами.Предстоящие важные новости в экономическом календаре Форекс на 14 ноябряВыступление члена FOMC Куглера в 12:00 по ГринвичуОтчет о заседании ЕЦБ по денежно-кредитной политике в 12:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена MPC Манна в 13:00 по ГринвичуОсновные данные по индексу потребительских цен в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуЧисло первичных заявок на пособие по безработице в США в 13:30 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Баркина в 14:00 по ГринвичуОценка запасов сырой нефти в США в 16:00 по ГринвичуВыступление президента ЕЦБ Лагард в 19:00 по ГринвичуВыступление председателя ФРС Пауэлла в 20:00 по ГринвичуВыступление главы Банка Англии Бейли в 21:00 по ГринвичуВыступление члена FOMC Уильямса в 21:15 по ГринвичуПроизводственный индекс деловой активности в Новой Зеландии в 21:30 по ГринвичуПредварительный индекс ВВП и цен Японии в 21:50 по ГринвичуВолатильность доллара может сохраниться на следующих торговых сессиях, поскольку другие представители ФРС, включая самого Джерома Пауэлла, выступят с речами и, возможно, обсудят сроки будущего смягчения. Данные по ценам производителей в США также могут повлиять на прогноз инфляции.Внимательно следите за протоколами заседания ЕЦБ, а также за выступлениями главы ЕЦБ Лагард, поскольку они также могут повлиять на направление движения евро в течение ...
EUR/TRY: euro is under pressure after weak Eurozone GDP dataOn October 23, the EUR/TRY currency pair is trading at 36.9302, which is 0.17% lower compared to the previous trading session. The depreciation of the euro against the Turkish lira is due to continued pressure on the euro due to weak macroeconomic data for the eurozone, as well as improvements in the Turkish economy.In Turkey, the Central Bank (CBRT) continues to adhere to strict monetary policy, which supports the lira exchange rate. In October, the CBRT raised its key interest rate to 35% in an attempt to contain inflation, which reached 61.5% in September in annual terms. The bank also announced its intention to maintain high rates to stabilize the economic situation, which led to some strengthening of the lira. However, the domestic market continues to be affected by concerns about political stability and international pressure on economic policy.The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult. GDP data for the third quarter showed weak growth of 0.2%, which is below analysts' expectations. Inflation slowed to 4.3% in September, but core inflation remains at 4.5%, well above the ECB's target level. The European Central Bank (ECB) adheres to a strict policy and signals readiness for further tightening if necessary. Against this background, pressure on the euro remains, as high interest rates continue to limit economic growth in key eurozone countries.Resistance levels: 37.2000, 37.5000.Support levels: 36.7500, 36.5000.GBP/USD: pound is under pressure due to a decrease in the PMIOn October 23, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading at 1.2974, which is 0.07% lower compared to the previous trading session. The decline in the pound against the dollar is due to volatility against the background of market expectations and upcoming economic data releases in the UK and the USA.In the UK, the market's attention is focused on the upcoming publication of data on the industrial business activity index (PMI), which, according to forecasts, may decrease to 48.7 points, indicating a slowdown in activity in the manufacturing sector. This is also confirmed by GDP data, which showed growth of only 0.3% in the third quarter, which is lower than analysts' expectations. Inflation remains a key factor, and the latest publication showed its slowdown to 5.9% in annual terms, which somewhat eased the pressure on the Bank of England. However, the continued rise in energy and food prices poses risks for further rate hikes in the UK, despite the slowdown in economic growth.In the US, the situation remains stable against the background of strong data on the labor market and inflation. Recent data on the consumer price index (CPI) in September showed an increase of 3.7% year-on-year, which coincided with forecasts, and the unemployment rate remains stable at 3.8%. Against this background, the Fed continues to adhere to the strategy of maintaining the current level of interest rates, which supports the dollar exchange rate. However, market participants expect new signals from the Fed representatives in the near future, which may have an impact on the further dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate.Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050.Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900.AUD/USD: slowing inflation in Australia strengthens RBA's cautionOn October 23, the AUD/USD currency pair is trading at 0.6677, which is 0.15% less than in the previous trading session. The depreciation of the Australian dollar is due to the deterioration of Australia's economic indicators and expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) actions.The economic situation in Australia remains tense, despite the measures taken by the government and the Central Bank. Recent inflation data showed a slowdown to 5.1% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous figure of 5.6%, but still exceeds the RBA's target of 2-3%. In response to high inflation and weak economic growth data, the RBA left the interest rate at 4.35%, adhering to a cautious approach to further raising it. At the same time, the labor market is showing a weakening, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, which is higher than analysts' expectations of 3.7%.Economists' forecasts and comments from RBA representatives confirm the bank's cautious position aimed at maintaining stability amid global economic turmoil and falling commodity prices. The focus is on the upcoming RBA meeting and the publication of the quarterly inflation report, which may affect further rate decisions.Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6730.Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6620.USDX: US Dollar Index is stable at 103.47 amid expectations of US PMI dataAs of October 23, the USDX (DXY) index is trading at 103.47, almost unchanged from the previous trading session. This indicates a general stabilization of the dollar, which is associated with expectations of important publications in the United States and the stability of economic data.The economic situation in the United States remains in the focus of investors' attention. The latest data show that inflation remains stable at 3.7% year-on-year, which coincides with analysts' forecasts. However, market participants continue to monitor the Fed's actions, as the next meeting will be decisive for further decisions on interest rates. In a stable labor market, where the unemployment rate is stable at 3.8%, the Fed retains the possibility of tightening monetary policy if necessary. Today, attention is focused on the upcoming data on business activity in the services sector (PMI), which may affect the dollar exchange rate if the actual values deviate significantly from expectations.Economists expect that the growth of the American economy will continue to remain strong, which supports the current position of the dollar in international markets. However, according to forecasts, in November and December, the USDX index may adjust to levels around 103.1 and 101.7, respectively, which indicates possible volatility depending on the publication of data and the actions of the Fed.Resistance levels: 104.00, 104.30.Support levels: 103.00, ...
EUR/CAD: euro is under pressure due to weak economic indicatorsThe EUR/CAD pair is trading around 1.5008 as of October 10, showing a slight increase of 0.13% compared to the previous session. The pair is trying to stay above the 1.5000 level, despite some uncertainty in the economic performance of both countries and global currency markets.The economic situation in the eurozone remains under pressure, as data from Germany showed a 0.8% decline in industrial production in August. In addition, the business activity index (PMI) in the eurozone services sector also fell to 47.4 points, which signals a slowdown in economic activity. The European Central Bank, in turn, continues to support a tighter monetary policy, although recent statements by ECB members have signaled the possibility of suspending rate hikes, which causes concern among investors.On the other hand, the Canadian economy is also facing challenges. Last week, employment data showed a 0.4% increase in the number of jobs, which exceeded expectations. However, wage growth remains at 3.8% year-on-year, which may strengthen inflation expectations and push the Bank of Canada to further tighten monetary policy. The Canadian dollar has not yet received significant support, which keeps the EUR/CAD pair relatively stable.Resistance levels: 1.5070, 1.5100.Support levels: 1.4950, 1.4900.USDX: dollar is developing a short-term bullish trendIn the morning, the USDX index holds at 102.93, maintaining a strong short-term "bullish" trend, which contributes to the renewal of local highs recorded on August 16.The growth of the index is supported by revised expectations regarding the pace of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Against the background of the expected monetary policy adjustments of other leading central banks, this creates a competitive advantage for the US dollar. The attention of market participants was focused on the recently published minutes of the September FOMC meeting. Earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the importance of a cautious approach to lowering rates, which reinforced expectations of a smoother reduction. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut of -25 basis points in November is estimated at about 90.0%. As for the December meeting, analysts also forecast a decrease of 25 basis points, but forecasts remain less certain. The latest data on inflation in the United States, measured through the index of personal consumer spending, shows that in August the annual inflation rate was 2.2%, while the base indicator, excluding energy and food products, reached 2.7%. Labor market data also indicate some weakening: the average wage growth in the non-agricultural sector in July and August was lower than in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.Resistance levels: 102.75, 103.00, 103.30, 103.60.Support levels: 102.45, 102.23, 102.00, 101.67.Silver market analysisSilver (XAG/USD) is trading around 30.61 as of October 10, which is 0.43% higher compared to the previous session, reflecting a slight increase. Support is observed against the background of the weakening of the US dollar, which usually has a positive impact on dollar-denominated metals, including silver.The economic situation in the United States remains in the focus of investors' attention. In particular, inflation data (CPI) for September is expected to be published today, which may significantly affect the Fed's interest rate decisions and, accordingly, the value of silver. The consumer price index is expected to slow down, however, if the actual data turns out to be higher than forecast, this may strengthen expectations of further rate hikes and put pressure on silver. In addition, the recent decline in Chinese incentives has had an impact on industrial metals, limiting their growth, including silver, which remains in the range of $30.3–$30.6 per ounce. Tomorrow, October 11, China will present a report on the trade balance for September. Given that China is one of the largest consumers of industrial metals, such data may affect the mood in the silver market. Export growth is forecast, which could increase demand for metals and support the price of silver, especially against the background of China's recent efforts to stimulate domestic demand and strengthen the economy.Resistance levels: 30.50, 30.77, 31.15, 31.56.Support levels: 30.50, 30.00, 29.73, 29.35.Oil market analysisWTI crude oil is trading at about $74.40 per barrel as of October 10, showing stable growth against the background of supportive demand factors. The key driver of price movement remains a decrease in gasoline inventories in the United States, which caused positive expectations and led to higher prices. Gasoline inventories decreased by 6.3 million barrels during the week, indicating high demand and/or reduced supply, supporting oil price growth in the short term.Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released an updated forecast according to which global oil demand will continue to grow and will amount to about 104.3 million barrels per day by 2025. The agency's current report highlights that demand growth is driven by a recovery in economic activity and significant consumption in non-OECD countries, which is likely to support oil prices over the coming months.Resistance levels: $75.65 and $76.30.Support levels: $73.70 and ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
What thought comes to mind when you read the "Big Mac Index"? Most people will probably think of the McDonald's logo. But for those who are interested in finance, this index can be much more important than just a hamburger.What is the Big Mac Index?The Big Mac index really directly refers to the "Big Mac" of McDonald's. McDonald's is a huge global network of fast food enterprises, covering more than 70-80% of the globe. The Big Mac is used as a reference point for the economy, based on how much the Big Mac costs in each of the countries, which reflects the cost and value of different currencies. The Big Mac burger is used because it is sold in every existing store.Big Mac Index in 2020Country - Price, USDAustralia - 4,13Brazil - 3,63Canada - 4,81Germany - 4, 52Russia - 1,79Spain - 4,52USA - 5,67The famous annual review of The Economist magazineWhen The Economist magazine first introduced the Big Mac Index in 1986, it was conceived as a fun and entertaining way to calculate purchasing power parity. Thirty-four years later, this index has become one of the most quoted and reliable in the world standard, which traders rely on and which is also taught in many economic textbooks.What is purchasing power parity?Purchasing power parity is an economic theory known as a "basket of goods". Purchasing power parity is used as a benchmark to calculate whether the two currencies being compared are in equilibrium.Read more: What is a Benchmark in investment and tradingThe levels are tested through the prism of a fixed set of consumer goods and commodities. The two currencies must be in balance when both are placed in the basket, and must have the same value in each country.In the case of the Big Mac Index, the price of the famous McDonald's Big Mac is the benchmark used to determine purchasing power parity. The theory states that fluctuations in the exchange rate between currencies affect the price that consumers will eventually pay for a hamburger.Why you might be interested in using purchasing power parity for forex tradingFor traders who do not know, purchasing power parity (PPP) is an indicator that is used to compare economic variables, since they differ in different countries. One of the key attributes of the model is that it is formed without taking into account changes in exchange rates and possible distortions.This is the problem of forex traders who want to use this model in their daily trading. Forex traders need data on exchange rates to make informed investment decisions.Unlike purchasing power parity, the Big Mac index is based on differences in exchange rates and directly reflects the value and devaluation of currencies. This makes it a much more effective indicator for forex traders. The Big Mac is also a material object, and not a concept, like purchasing power parity.Read more: What is the devaluation of currencyWhy the Big Mac Index can be a great tool for forecasting the forex marketSince its creation in 1986, the Big Mac index has been a valuable tool for forex traders who wanted to find a connection between the long-term forecast of a currency and its exchange rate. Traders who use the index to predict the market perceive discrepancies between the index and the real exchange rate as a measure of potential future correction of exchange rates. In other words, the index connects the Forex market with commodities and shows the direction where the market can go.As is the case with most theories, this correlation only works until it stops working. Since the cost of a hamburger can be influenced by various factors, the exchange rate is not always an accurate indicator of the strength and direction of the market.But the main reason why the Big Mac is not a reliable indicator is that it does not take into account small short-term fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.It only works for the long term and, therefore, will not help those traders who need to understand the short term. In combination with other indicators, the Big Mac index is an excellent tool that you should be able to use.Example of the Big Mac index in actionLet's look at the following example:If the cost of a Big Mac from McDonald's is $3.75 in the US and 2 pounds sterling in the UK, the exchange rate is expected to be 1.875 (3.75 USD/2 GBP). When the dollar exchange rate rises, the Big Mac index tells us that the pound is overvalued. If the dollar is declining, the index tells us that the pound is undervalued.Why the Big Mac Index can be misleadingInitially, the index was supposed to be more entertaining, since it was far from perfect. McDonald's can influence the index because they make a decision about the cost of their Big Mac burger. Another big disadvantage is that the Big Mac burger does not have any rigid characteristics. Each country has its own type of Big Mac burger, which differs in size, ingredients, and type of bun.Traders can use the Big Mac index as an indicator of commodities.Conclusions about the Big Mac IndexThe Economist came up with the Big Mac Index in 1986 to use it to determine whether currencies are at their "exact" level.Over the past years, this index has become a world standard, many scientific studies have been devoted to it, and it is included in textbooks on economics.Read more: About the Big Mac Index and its ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...