To assess the current state of the economy and future trends, investors use various tools: GDP dynamics, stock indexes, unemployment, inflation, PMI business activity index, producer inflation, consumer expectations indicator, etc. But in addition to stock indexes, you can also analyze the value of the national currency of the United States - the dollar.Since the stock market is an integral part of the economy, as integral as the dollar in the economy, the dynamics of the value of the national currency can serve as signals potentially important for the investor. The dollar is the main currency of international settlements, the main world reserve currency, the main volume of debt obligations in the world is issued in US dollars. Therefore, the value of the dollar is a kind of barometer not only of the US economy, but also of the world economy. The dollar has its own index - the DXY dollar index (DXY or USDX tickers).In this article, we will look at what the US dollar index DXY is, how it is calculated and how to interpret the dynamics of its value.What does the US dollar index DXY meanThe US dollar Index (DXY) is a calculated indicator of the market value of the US dollar relative to the "basket" of monetary units of the countries - the most important trading partners of the United States. The index basket consists of 6 currencies: euro, Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.We can say that indirectly, the index value characterizes the dynamics of US exports, because with its growth, the demand for the dollar also increases.To calculate the index, currencies are assigned different weights in accordance with the shares of currencies in US international trade:At the time of the index's creation, to a greater extent, it was they who held the primacy in the foreign trade turnover of the United States. More than half of the weight (57.6%) has the euro, and the share of the smallest component – the Swiss franc - is 3.6%. Based on the weight of each currency pair, it can be concluded that the role of the euro in the formation of the dollar index is several times higher than that of other currencies.The DXY index is calculated using the weighted average geometric calculation method. Each national currency of the US partners from the currency basket of the index has its share of influence on the USDX index. The formula has the following form:The index value reflects the change in the ratio of the dollar to other currencies compared to its base value. The coefficient 50.14348112, which is involved in the calculation formula as the first term, was selected in such a way that the initial value of the index was 100 p. The power coefficients are equal to the shares of the corresponding currencies in the index base.The growth of the index indicates an increase in the value of the dollar compared to the "basket" of currencies, i.e. its strengthening, and vice versa, its decline indicates that it has become weaker. If the index value is greater than 100, then the strength of the dollar has increased by the corresponding amount. And, conversely, when the dollar price decreases, the index decreases.History of the US dollar index DXYThe calculation of the dollar index began in 1973 after the termination of the Breton Woods Agreement. In accordance with this agreement, for a long time, the currencies of 44 countries were pegged to the dollar, which, in turn, was backed by gold ($35 per troy ounce (gold standard).In 1973, the United States refused to link to gold, because its reserves in the United States were limited to a certain amount, and the dollars secured by gold were not enough for the development of world trade. Since then, countries have switched to floating exchange rates of national currencies.In the same 1973, the DXY index was created as a barometer evaluating the "paper" dollar in relation to other currencies. Initially, the basic basket of the index included 10 currencies, of which 8 were European. The base of the index has changed only once – in 1999 in connection with the formation of the eurozone and the emergence of the euro. The euro replaced 5 currencies of European countries from the index. Until 1999, the most significant currency for calculating the USDX index was the national currency of Germany – the German mark.The initial value of the index was taken as 100 p. The following index calculation results are measured as a ratio to the base value.Initially, the US dollar index was developed by the US Federal Reserve System in 1973 to obtain the average value of the US dollar weighted by foreign bilateral trade, freely floating against world currencies. Now the index is calculated by the ICE exchange holding (Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.). The calculation is made daily, once an hour. There are no regular adjustments or rebalancing of the ICE US dollar index.The values and dynamics of the dollar index may be different, but the following values are taken as benchmarks.More than 100 pp. – similar values indicate the strength of the dollar relative to other national currencies from the index basket.Equal to 100 p.p. – this means that the dollar is at the level of the other currencies of the index basket.Less than 100 pp. – this indicates the weakness of the US national currency.As can be seen on the graph, the maximum index value (160 pp.) was fixed in 1985, the minimum (72 pp.) - during the 2008 crisis. At the time of publication of the article (10.08.2022), the index value is 106.303 pp. This means that the value of the dollar has increased by 6,303 p.p. compared to the baseline value. This is the highest value in the last 20 years.Thus, the DXY index measures how the dollar price changes on the world market.What does the dynamics of the dollar index DXY indicateThe specificity of the DXY dollar index is that its dynamics cannot be interpreted unambiguously. Unlike conventional currencies, which fall when the country's economy deteriorates, the US dollar can strengthen both during economic growth in the US and during a global recession or economic downturn. This feature is due to the fact that the dollar is the world's reserve currency and plays a unique global role in the global economy. On the one hand, investors see the American currency as an opportunity to make money on the economic recovery, on the other hand, they consider the dollar as a relatively safe asset that will allow them to survive difficulties while saving their savings. This feature is called the "dollar smile theory". There are 3 phases in the behavior of the dollar:Phase 1 – Dollar growth due to increased risk aversion. The dollar is strengthening with a decrease in the growth rate of the global economy and an increase in risks in the markets. In such a situation, in order to avoid possible losses or minimize them, investors exit risky assets and direct funds to the dollar, which is considered a "safe haven currency". At this stage, the investor's goal is to preserve, not increase, the available capital. In addition, to invest in US Treasury bonds that are considered risk-free in any economic situation, dollars are also needed, which leads to increased demand for them and an increase in the exchange rate.Phase 2 - Economic recession and recession. At this stage, the economy is showing signs of slowing down or even recession, and the Fed is starting to cut interest rates. Investors are starting not to buy, but to sell the dollar in order to switch to currencies that can provide higher returns. Demand for the dollar is weak, which leads to its fall.Another factor is the relative economic efficiency of the United States and other countries. The US economy may not necessarily be stagnant, but if its economic growth is weaker than in other countries, then investors will prefer to sell US dollars and buy the currency of a country with a stronger economy. As a result, the lower part of the "smile" is formed - the dollar is falling.Phase 3 – Economic growth. The values of fundamental indicators are beginning to indicate an improvement in the economic situation, i.e. the phase of economic growth. Companies are increasing production, there are signs of economic recovery. Investors' risk appetite is returning. Thus, with stronger GDP growth in the US economy compared to other countries, the dollar is also strengthening. Thus, the key factor in the dynamics of the dollar index is relative economic growth. If the economy of the "rest of the world" can grow faster than the US economy, this will lead to a weakening of the US dollar. If the US economy is growing faster, then the US dollar will grow. In fact, the influx of foreign money into American enterprises and investments leads to an increase in the value of the dollar.An example of such a scenario is the 2008 crisis. In mid-2008, investors sought stability during the crisis period in the form of investing in the dollar, which led to its strengthening. As the situation normalized and the crisis processes slowed down, the focus of investors' interests began to shift to more profitable and risky instruments. This flow of capital led to a significant drop in the US dollar in early 2009. The recovery of the US economy from the crisis caused an increase in demand for the dollar and, as a result, its strengthening until the end of the 1st half of 2010.The factor of updating the highs of the dollar value relative to world currencies from the reserve basket in 2022: the Fed started tightening monetary policy earlier than other major central banks (against which the yield of government treasury bonds began to rise), the problems of the eurozone, the devaluation trend in the euro and yen, the weakness of stock markets. All this together makes American investments more profitable, because now they promise higher profits. Finally, investors and analysts are concerned about the global recession – the dollar is traditionally considered the most reliable asset in turbulent times.Let's take a closer look at how the change in the dollar index affects the dynamics of some investment instruments and the economy of enterprises.BondsThe increase in the profitability of investments in US Treasury bonds is accompanied by an increase in the DXY index. Bonds are traditionally considered the lowest-risk assets that allow you to save capital. At the same time, in order for them to be attractive for investment, their profitability should be higher than the inflation rate.Currently, due to an increase in the interest rate and an increase in bond yields, investors are starting to exit riskier assets of other countries, i.e. there is a flow of funds into the dollar for further investments in bonds. In addition, due to the unstable global economic and geopolitical situation, the demand for the most risk-free instruments is growing. This leads to a strengthening of the dollar.StocksA stronger dollar is not always good for equity investors. It means:A decrease in the profits of exporting companies and global corporations from sales of products in other countries.An increase in the costs of exporters, which leads to an increase in prices for the goods they produce and, as a result, a decrease in competitive advantage.Increasing the costs of foreign companies operating in the United States.Thus, the growth of the DXY index signals a weakening of the US stock market, i.e. the dollar index is basically moving opposite to the S&P 500 index.Such a decline in the market is due to the fact that a strong dollar makes imports cheaper and exports more expensive and less competitive in world markets. The rising dollar affects the profits of many global corporations.Exporting companies and global corporationsCompanies that supply their products around the world make more profit with a weak dollar.The high values of the DXY index, i.e. the growth in the value of the dollar negatively affects US exports. In this case, the volume of goods purchased by other countries decreases, because they need more of their own currency to buy the same volume. That is, US companies face the following consequences of the strengthening of the dollar:Decrease in the volume of exports.Margin reduction, as a result of a decrease in the volume of funds received, including for the development of the company. In this case, there is a significant adverse effect of exchange rate fluctuations.The weakening of the exchange rate of a foreign currency against the US dollar adversely affects the company's sales and revenues denominated in a foreign currency (other than the dollar), and usually leads to the company raising prices in other currencies to compensate for the strengthening of the US dollar, potentially reducing demand for its products. If in some cases, for some reason, the company decides not to raise prices, this negatively affects the profit that the company earns in US dollars: when converting foreign exchange earnings into US dollars, the company receives less (since the dollar has become more expensive).Importing companiesA strong dollar benefits US importers. With the growth of the dollar, imports for American companies become cheaper, and they can make more profit. For companies in other countries that import products from the United States – on the contrary, because they have to spend more of their currency to buy goods or raw materials.Commodity marketsPricing for most commodities occurs in the US dollar due to its role as the leading reserve currency. Local production costs and consumer prices can be expressed in different currencies, but for wholesale deliveries, the US dollar is used as a means of exchange. Over time, the growth of the dollar usually leads to a decrease in commodity prices, while the weakness of the reserve currency is a factor in the growth of prices in commodity markets. An increase in the DXY index leads to a decline in all commodity markets.Below is a graph of oil prices and the DXY index, which shows the inverse correlation of the dollar index with oil prices.In addition to the impact of the dollar's value on financial and commodity markets, it is worth mentioning separately the following global consequences for the economies of other countries:An increase in the debt burden on the budgets of countries that have dollar loans. After all, it is a well-known fact that the bulk of the world's debt obligations are denominated in US dollars. US banks actively lend not only to companies and businesses, but also to entire states. With the growth of the dollar, borrowers have to pay more on their debts.Emigration of capital from countries. When the national currency (other than the dollar) weakens, it forces large businesses and investors to withdraw funds from the economy of this country, which is an additional factor in the weakening of the local currency.Negative impact on economic growth. The effect of the dollar's growth is felt by importing companies, manufacturers who are heavily dependent on imported components from the United States. In the conditions of modern global globalization, it is difficult to find production facilities that are 100% provided by local markets. This is especially true for the production of complex technological products. To maintain output volumes at the same level, manufacturers need to spend more money on purchases, which often leads to losses. Therefore, a compromise option is to reduce the volume of output. On the scale of the country's economy, this means a drop in GDP.Pros and cons of the DXY Dollar IndexLike any other indicator, the US dollar index has its pros and cons:AdvantagesExtensive use of the index. The index is calculated around the clock.Availability of futures and options on the index. Index futures can act as a leading indicator of the movement of currency pairs. For example, if a bearish candle appears on his chart, it may mean that a surge will occur on the currency charts.Allows you to analyze the value of the dollar with more objectivity than the dynamics of a single currency pair.DisadvantagesA small number of currencies in the index, as well as a large proportion of the euro, which, when it fluctuates, leads to significant distortions and inadequate index values.It has stable power coefficients that do not correspond to the current modern structure of the US foreign trade turnover. The weights were last changed in 1999 after the introduction of the euro and have remained unchanged since then. However, much has changed in trade relations with the United States. For example, China, South Korea and Mexico have become key trading partners of the United States. The diagram below shows the structure of US foreign trade turnover in 2021:For a more adequate reflection of the US trade balance with other countries, the Fed calculates the Trade-weighted Dollar Index (TWDI). The basket of this index includes 26 currencies. Currency weights are recalculated annually. However, despite such a large number of currencies compared to the DXY index, the dynamics of the indices are almost the same due to the fact that the euro also has a lot of weight in TWDI.ConclusionThe US dollar index is a synthetic instrument reflecting the current dynamics of the price of the US currency. The index shows the strength or weakness of the US dollar more objectively than in relation to any one currency. This tool is used in their work by traders, investors, stock analysts. It gives a correct assessment of currency market trends and all assets in dollars. The global economic situation largely depends on the state of the American economy. The strength of the dollar can be considered as a temperature indicator not only of the US economy, but also of the global economy.The dynamics of the index indicates certain trends in the economy, but it is impossible to assess the current situation and trend by only one indicator. Moreover, the specificity of the index lies in the fact that the dynamics may indicate completely opposite trends – the dollar index shows its growth both during economic growth and during recessions. Therefore, the index can act as one of the tools in the investor's arsenal, but it is always necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis of a number of macroeconomic ...
The week ends with a fairly modest volume of macroeconomic statistics, and investors' main attention is focused on the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment data for April. The preliminary estimate has already alarmed the markets due to a new surge in inflation expectations, which increases uncertainty about the trajectory of interest rates in the United States.Inflationary signals from JapanThe published inflation data in Tokyo for April exceeded expectations: the overall indicator accelerated to 3.5% in annual terms (the previous value was 2.9%), and core inflation rose to 3.4% (against the forecast of 3.2%). The main reason was the rise in prices for a wide range of goods and services. The beginning of a new fiscal year in Japan is traditionally accompanied by a review of companies' pricing policies, and this year rising costs have become the main reason for the increase in consumer prices. Taking into account the expected acceleration of wages, the Bank of Japan is likely to continue its course towards a gradual normalization of monetary policy, unless trade restrictions from the United States turn out to be critical.US data: short-term surge in ordersIn the United States, data on durable goods orders for March turned out to be significantly higher than expected, with an increase of 9.2% compared with a forecast of 2.0%. However, such a strong result is largely due to temporary factors, in particular, a sharp increase in aircraft orders (primarily Boeing). Excluding the aviation sector, the growth in orders was minimal, which caused a weak market reaction.Comments from the Fed representativesThe speeches of representatives of the Federal Reserve System demonstrated a divergence of opinion. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland spoke out with harsh rhetoric, insisting on a wait-and-see attitude regarding the impact of duties on the economy. At the same time, Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, took a softer stance, not ruling out an increase in unemployment. Neel Kashkari, who heads the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that the US trade policy causes him concern about possible mass layoffs in the future. On Saturday, the so-called period of silence begins before the May Fed meeting. The probability of a rate change is extremely low, and the baseline scenario assumes a decrease in June with subsequent steps of 25 bps each quarter to the level of 3.00–3.25% by mid-2026.Trade tensions: China is not backing downChina made a harsh statement yesterday, demanding that the United States completely abolish unilateral tariffs as a condition for starting negotiations. Despite Washington's statements about its desire to reduce tensions, negotiations are not underway yet. Moreover, the Chinese authorities have denied any rumors about current contacts.Companies are also responding to trade instability. According to the Financial Times, Apple plans to move iPhone production for the American market from China to India as early as next year.Germany: positive surprise from the Ifo indexThe Ifo business climate index for April in Germany surprised with growth. The indicator of the current situation rose to 86.4 against the expected decline, and the component of expectations decreased only slightly to 87.4. The construction sector and services made the largest contribution to maintaining positions, while signs of pressure were recorded in the manufacturing sector, including against the background of trade barriers. However, there has not yet been a large-scale negative similar to the PMI data.Stock markets: the positive remainsU.S. stock indexes continued to rise, with stocks of cyclical and technology companies particularly strong. The Nasdaq index gained 2.7%, the S&P 500 — 2.0%, and the Dow - 1.2%. Market participants continue to ignore the current economic data, focusing on the prospects for de-escalation of the trade conflict. Signals from the United States yesterday also indicated a softening of the position.In Asia, trading opened in the "green zone", which was facilitated by rumors about a possible cancellation by China of some tariffs on American goods. Stock index futures in the United States and Europe are also showing growth on the back of positive corporate reports.Debt and foreign exchange market: fluctuations without a clear trendDuring yesterday's session, there was an increase in bond prices and a decrease in yields in both the United States and the eurozone. The US dollar weakened slightly against the euro, but managed to regain its lost ground in the early hours of Friday morning. In conditions of a shortage of important macro statistics, market participants will monitor geopolitical statements and signals from ...
Germany: Ifo Index and expectationsToday, the key indicator in the eurozone will be the publication of the German Ifo index, which investors are carefully comparing with yesterday's PMI data. Of particular interest is the component of expectations present in the Ifo and absent in the PMI, as it is able to better reflect the impact of trade conflicts, in particular, between the United States and China.USA: moderately positive signals and political noiseDespite weak regional reports from the Fed, the index of business activity in the US industry unexpectedly rose to 50.7, surpassing expectations of 49.1. At the same time, the services sector weakened to 51.4, but remained above the threshold of stagnation. The composite index decreased from 53.5 to 51.2, which still indicates moderate growth. The weakening of export orders in both sectors was offset by steady domestic demand: new orders increased in industry, while they decreased slightly in the service sector.However, against the background of macroeconomic statistics, the political factor has become more active again. There were reports that it was the ministers of finance and trade, Bessent and Latnik, who dissuaded the president from firing Fed Chairman Powell. Bessent also commented on the situation regarding trade negotiations with China, saying that a full-fledged agreement may take 2-3 years, and the resumption of dialogue is impossible without reducing tariffs, which now reach 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on American goods. The possibility of tariff cuts of up to 50% is being discussed on the sidelines, but the White House has not yet confirmed these rumors. This news caused cautious optimism and increased the probability of a deal with China to 38% from 34% previously.An additional boost to the market was given by information from the Financial Times, according to which the US administration may consider the possibility of partially exempting automakers from import duties after appropriate lobbying efforts by the industry.Eurozone: weakness in the service sectorThe combined eurozone business activity index fell to 50.1 in April, while the drop in the services sector to 49.7 was unexpected. On the contrary, the manufacturing PMI showed positive dynamics, exceeding forecasts and reaching 48.7. Despite this, pressure on the ECB towards additional easing remains, especially since the price components also indicate a weakening of the inflationary pressure. The employment rate in the service sector, however, remains positive at 50.8, which mitigates the negative effect of the decline in the overall index.The update of the ECB wage index also indicates a slowdown in wage growth in 2025, which strengthens the case for lower rates. According to current expectations, the deposit rate may be lowered to 1.5% by September 2025.UK: alarming signs of stagflationThe PMI figures for April in the UK turned out to be worse than expected across the board. The composite index fell to 48.2, signaling a reduction in business activity. The indices for services and production were 48.9 and 44.0, respectively. At the same time, there is an increase in both incoming and outgoing prices, and employment continues to decline. This combination indicates the risk of a stagflationary scenario, which significantly complicates the task of the Bank of England in terms of monetary policy.Energy market: uncertainty over OPEC+ quotasOil prices fell by 2% after reports that several OPEC+ countries called for an additional increase in production in June, similar to the decision taken in May. Kazakhstan, in turn, stated that it was not ready to compensate for the excess production of the previous period with cuts. Eight OPEC+ countries will meet on May 5 to discuss the future quota. Due to continued pressure on prices in the second quarter, the average Brent price is expected to be around $70 per barrel, with a subsequent recovery to $85 in the fourth quarter.Stock markets: rising amid political optimismBuyers prevailed on stock markets, despite contradictory macro data. Cyclical sectors led the way, both in the USA and in Europe. The market continues to live under the influence of paradoxes: rising bond yields, a strengthening dollar, and a simultaneous rally in risky assets. The profitable reports of the companies also added to the positive. Indices in the USA ended the day with growth: Dow +1,1%, S&P 500 +1,7%, Nasdaq +2,5%, Russell 2000 +1,5%. However, Asia has been showing a decline since this morning, and futures for the United States and Europe also point to a correction amid cooling political optimism.Bonds and the foreign exchange market: caution returnsWhile Finance Minister Bessant acknowledged the excesses of the current tariffs on Chinese goods, he emphasized the strategic task of redefining U.S. global economic relations. His speech cooled the euphoria of the markets: the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rebounded from daily lows and reached 4.39%, indicating an increase in expectations for inflation and interest ...
Macroeconomic background: expectations for the dayToday promises to be a calm day in terms of the release of macroeconomic data. Market participants' attention remains focused on uncertainty in global trade and possible signals from US President Donald Trump.In the eurozone, the focus will be on the April consumer confidence indicator. After a significant increase last year, consumer sentiment began to deteriorate again, and trade tensions in April likely intensified this process.In Sweden, the latest data on the unemployment rate is expected to be published. Given the continuing risks for companies that constrain their staffing plans, the negative trend may continue. Nevertheless, we forecast a decrease in the unemployment rate by the end of the year, although it will take several months to be sure.Key events of the week: PMI and tariff negotiationsThe key events of the week will be the publication of business activity indices (PMI) for April, scheduled for Wednesday. These data will provide the first estimates of the impact of trade uncertainty after Liberation Day. Any progress in the negotiation process between the United States and China, as well as changes in investor sentiment, will continue to affect market dynamics.An overview of Easter Week eventsIn the US, March retail sales showed resilience, rising by 1.4%, which was in line with expectations. Despite the decrease in gasoline prices, which held back the overall figure, the growth in sales of cars and catering services supported the overall dynamics. This suggests that so far weak consumer sentiment indicators have not had a serious impact on real spending.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing activity indicator weakened sharply in April, falling from 8.7 to -34.2 points. This may indicate a possible deterioration in the PMI in the first release after the holidays.Fed officials in their statements during Easter confirmed their commitment to a wait-and-see attitude. Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the need for caution, and New York Fed President John Williams also does not expect urgent policy changes. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on Trump's ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence.European policy: results of the ECB meetingThe European Central Bank, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. The regulator's comments were generally "mild": the risks of a slowdown in economic growth were emphasized with a moderate assessment of inflationary threats. This caused a decline in European bond yields and a local weakening of the euro against the dollar, although weak statistics from the United States then supported the cross.Our forecast assumes the continuation of the ECB rate reduction cycle, with the aim of reducing the deposit rate to 1.50% by September 2025.China and the Trade WarsChinese regulators kept the base rates at 3.10% for one-year loans and 3.60% for five-year loans. However, on the political front, Beijing has accused the United States of abusing its tariff policy and warned other countries against entering into agreements with Washington to the detriment of China. This statement was made against the background of rumors about possible US pressure measures on third countries as part of a trade confrontation.UK inflation and Bank of England policyIn the UK, inflation in March was below forecasts. The annual growth rate of consumer prices decreased to 2.6%, mainly due to cheaper transport services and leisure goods. The slowdown in inflationary pressure reinforces expectations of another rate cut by the Bank of England at its meeting in May.Central bank decisions: Denmark, Canada, TurkeyThe central bank of Denmark followed the example of the ECB and lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.85%. The Bank of Canada maintained its rate at 2.75%, confirming its commitment to an inflation target of 2% and supplementing the forecast with two scenarios depending on the further escalation of the trade war.The central bank of Turkey unexpectedly raised the rate immediately by 350 basis points to 46%, which was a surprise to the markets.Japan: inflation and policy of the Bank of JapanIn Japan, core inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year in March, in line with forecasts. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, confirmed his readiness to continue tightening monetary policy if inflation continues to accelerate, although a cautious approach remains amid uncertainty in global trade.Commodity markets: oil and goldOil prices dropped by more than 2% due to expectations of progress in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. In the morning, Brent crude oil is trading around $67 per barrel.Gold prices continue to update records, approaching the level of $ 3,488 per troy ounce, reflecting the steady demand for safe haven assets.Stock markets: mood remains tenseAgainst the background of the Easter holidays, stock markets showed weakness. American indices have lost more than 4% over the past five trading days, while European markets have shown moderate growth. Volatility has increased: the VIX index has risen to 33 points. At the same time, the growth of the euro adds pressure on dollar assets in investors' portfolios.Debt market and currenciesThe US dollar continues to decline amid political instability and pressure on the Fed from the White House. Short-term rates in the United States have fallen, while long-term rates continue to rise, indicating an increase in the yield gap. Against the background of the ECB's softening position, yields in Europe continue to decline, and the EUR/SEK pair is moving towards fair levels around ...
Dollar decline amid concerns about the Fed's independenceIn today's low-volume trading due to the holiday period, the US dollar came under widespread pressure, which was helped by growing concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve System. Investors are alarmed after statements by White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett that President Donald Trump continues to explore the possibility of removing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Despite the fact that the legal basis for such actions remains questionable and unclear, the very fact of possible political interference in the process of monetary policy formation has seriously undermined the confidence of market participants.Rising risks amid US trade policyThe escalation of the conflict between the presidential administration and the Federal Reserve is taking place against the background of the already existing uncertainty caused by Washington's aggressive trade policy. New tariff measures and retaliatory duties are exacerbating the situation: Fed officials, including Powell, have repeatedly warned that increased trade barriers could simultaneously accelerate inflation and slow down economic growth, increasing the likelihood of a stagflationary scenario. The threat of interference in the independence of the Federal Reserve increases market instability and significantly increases long-term risks for American assets.Protecting the independence of the FedJerome Powell, in turn, strongly defends the independence of the central bank. Speaking last week, he stressed: "We will never succumb to political pressure... Our independence is enshrined in law." Powell also recalled that members of the Board of Governors can be removed only on serious grounds, and not because of differences in political views. Nevertheless, the escalation of the confrontation with the White House has already cast a shadow on the reputation of key American institutions. The markets did not remain indifferent: investors began to actively withdraw capital from the dollar in favor of alternative assets.Rising demand for Euro and goldAmid falling confidence in US assets, the euro became the main beneficiary of today's trading session. With the dollar declining, investors are looking for reliable and liquid alternatives, and the euro, with its deep financial market, relative political stability, and reputable central bank, has become one of the preferred destinations. The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are also holding steady, but it was the euro and gold that received the most support, which remain the main safe haven assets in the face of increased ...
Focus on Germany: ZEW Sentiment index and expectationsToday, the key event on the European macroeconomic agenda will be the publication of the ZEW index of economic sentiment for Germany for March. According to the consensus forecast, the index value may drop significantly to 9.5 points, which is likely due to the ongoing turbulence in global trade and weak readings of economic indicators in the region. Recall that in February, the indicator of current economic conditions unexpectedly rose to 51.6 after a January jump from 26.0, ending a six-month downward trend. This time, the market expects only a slight improvement in the current estimate, to -86.8 from -87.6 last month.Sweden's spring budget: no market effectIn Sweden, the spring revision of the state budget will be presented at 8:00 Central European time. The main parameters of the project are already known: the volume of reforms is 11.5 billion crowns, while the central initiative will be the extension of tax benefits for housing repairs. Earlier in March, the government announced plans for a long-term increase in defense spending, but the final targets for them will be formed only in June, after the NATO summit, and they will not be included in the current budget version. For this reason, the impact of the document on financial markets will be minimal.United Kingdom: labor market dataAt 8:00 a.m., the UK will publish the employment report for February-March. Although this event traditionally has an impact on the pound, the current market agenda is focused on trade conflicts and interest rate policy, so the reaction to the publication may be limited.Overall market picture: cautious optimism amid tariff uncertaintyThe main attention of market participants remains focused on the escalation of tariff disputes. In the United States, Fed member Christopher Waller made a mild comment, noting that in the face of a significant slowdown in the economy due to high tariffs, he would support an earlier and large-scale rate cut. His words are especially important, given that Waller often reflects a consensus opinion within the FOMC.In China, exports increased by 12.4% YoY in March, significantly exceeding expectations (4.4%). However, given the upcoming tariff policy changes, these data are temporary. In April, we can expect a sharp decline in shipments, especially towards the United States. Against this background, the global trade picture remains uncertain.Financial markets: cautious recovery in risk appetiteStocks on global markets showed growth on Monday amid hopes that the peak of the tariff war may have already passed. European securities outperformed American ones, and defensive sectors outperformed cyclical ones in terms of profitability for the third day in a row – a clear signal that investors are becoming more selective and are beginning to take into account structural risks.On Wall Street, all key indexes closed in positive territory: The Dow Jones and S&P 500 gained 0.8% each, the Nasdaq 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 1.1%. Positive sentiment prevailed in Asia on Tuesday, with European futures also showing growth.Dollar, Euro and yields: EUR/USD recoveryAfter falling to the level of 1.1300, the EUR/USD currency pair regained momentum amid easing concerns about the recession in the United States and signs of flexibility in the tariff policy of the White House. The Norwegian krone and the British pound also showed growth following the stock indexes. In Europe, yields on two-year swaps dropped below 2%, reflecting a general shift towards a soft policy. US government bond yields also declined, partly due to Waller's comments, which focused on the possible reaction of the Fed in the event of a slowdown in the labor market.Today, special attention will be paid to the "tax day" in the United States – the date when the maximum inflow of funds to the budget traditionally occurs, which can affect the short-term liquidity and dynamics of treasury ...
Dollar Index trading idea (DXY) on April 14, 2025ARTEM_DEEV During Monday's Asian session, the dollar index (DXY) continues to decline, and has already sunk to 99.50, the lowest value since April 2022. The third consecutive session of sales of the US currency reflects the growing distrust of investors, fueled by weak macroeconomic data from the United States and increased expectations of easing the Fed's monetary policy.The aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China is putting significant pressure on the dollar. Beijing's retaliatory measures, which increased duties on American goods from 84% to 125% in response to similar actions by Washington, have increased concerns about the global economic downturn. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that such protectionist policies could accelerate the onset of the next financial crisis.US economic indicators continue to show alarming signals:The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 50.8 points in April, while inflation expectations rose to 6.7%;Annual growth in the producer price index (PPI) slowed to 2.7% in March from 3.2% in February;The consumer price index (CPI) decreased to 2.4% in annual terms.This dynamic, indicating a weakening of inflationary pressure while simultaneously worsening consumer sentiment, has revived market discussions about a possible early easing of the Fed's policy. At the same time, representatives of the regulator note that the trade war significantly complicates the decision-making process on interest rates.The market is currently estimating the probability of a 90 basis point Fed rate cut by the end of 2025. In the coming days, special attention will be focused on the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell – his comments may become a catalyst for further weakening of the dollar if the soft rhetoric persists.Trading recommendationWe are considering an exclusively "bearish" scenario and include a pending DXY sell order in the trading plan.Sell Stop 99.20 with a target (TP) of 96.00 and a protective order (S-L) at ...
Escalation of the tariff war: the US and China continue their confrontationFinancial markets are in a state of heightened anxiety as investors closely monitor further actions by US President Donald Trump as part of the ongoing tariff confrontation. At the moment, most countries face a 10% duty on a wide range of exported goods, as well as a 25% tariff on automobiles, steel, aluminum, and products from Canada and Mexico. China, by contrast, is in the worst position, facing a record 145% interest rate.The markets have already partially priced in further escalation, but the current measures from the United States represent an actual tightening of fiscal policy, which increases the likelihood of a recession. On the other hand, China is expected to take stimulating steps, possibly lowering the benchmark interest rate after Easter. At the same time, a devaluation of the yuan is unlikely, since Beijing prefers to maintain the stability of the exchange rate.Eurozone: inflation is losing priority, the focus is on slowing growthOn Wednesday, the publication of the final data on inflation in the eurozone for March is expected. The consensus forecast assumes confirmation of the preliminary values, and the market is likely not to react to the release. Investors' attention has already shifted from the inflationary agenda to economic growth prospects and trade risks.On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The accompanying statement is likely to repeat the phrase that monetary policy is becoming "less restrictive." The head of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, is likely to focus on the deterioration of the macroeconomic outlook, but there will be no direct hints on the next steps on rates.Current events: signals from the USA and AsiaThe US president has announced new tariffs on semiconductors in the coming week. In parallel, an investigation has been launched into national security issues in the semiconductor sector. At the same time, Trump stated the need for "flexibility" in trade issues. On the other hand, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping began his first foreign trip this year, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. The visit underscores Beijing's desire to strengthen regional ties and forge a multipolar order.Over the weekend, the United States excluded a number of high—tech goods from retaliatory tariffs - smartphones, chip manufacturing equipment and some computers. This provided short-term relief for the American IT sector. However, as noted by Commerce Secretary Howard Latnick, these goods may still be subject to future tariffs on semiconductors expected before May.Macroeconomic data: alarming signals from the United StatesA preliminary survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan for April revealed a sharp deterioration in indicators. The index fell to 50.8 from 57.0 in March, while expectations and current estimates also declined more than expected. At the same time, inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 6.7%, which increases concerns about lost price control.Producer prices in March, on the contrary, showed a decrease — the PPI index dropped to 2.7% in annual terms, which turned out to be lower than expected. This indicates that manufacturers did not have time to shift potential tariff costs to the final price in anticipation of new duties.Regional inflation: Swedish stabilityIn Sweden, the final March inflation data coincided with estimates: CPI at 0.5% YoY, CPIF at 2.3% YoY. Food inflation accelerated, while other components, including clothing, transportation, and housing, showed declines. Thus, inflation remains below the Riksbank's target level for the eighth month in a row, which supports the regulator's cautious position.Stock markets: optimism with caveatsUS stock markets ended Friday on a positive note — the S&P 500 index gained 1.8%, playing off the news about the exclusion of IT products from tariffs. Apple shares have become the engine of growth. European markets lagged behind in dynamics, but futures indicate a possible increase at the opening. It is worth noting that since the beginning of the year, European stocks have been outperforming American stocks in terms of profitability.Bond and currency markets: dollar under pressure, U.S. yields risingThe EUR/USD pair briefly dropped below 1.13 on Friday, as the weakening of tariff threats supported the dollar. However, overall confidence in American assets remains in question. The yield gap between the US and Europe has become noticeably wider: the yield on 10-year US bonds rose by 50 bps to 4.5%, while German securities remained virtually unchanged (2.55%). Scandinavian currencies remain vulnerable amid global capital flows and high uncertainty.ResultsMarkets continue to balance between the hope of stabilizing trade relations and the reality of increased global risks. Further steps by the United States on tariffs, China's reaction, and central bank policies will determine market movements in the coming ...
USA: inflation and government bonds in the spotlightThe focus of the American market today is the publication of the March consumer price index (CPI). Inflation is expected to slow down: according to the consensus forecast, the overall indicator will decrease from 2.8% to 2.5% in annual terms, and the core CPI index from 3.1% to 3.0%. Despite the increase in tariffs, which reinforces inflation expectations for the medium term, the Federal Reserve's attention is focused on internal, "organic" price pressures. An additional indicator of current investor sentiment will be the auction for the placement of 30-year US Treasury bonds.Sweden: signs of economic recoveryToday, at 08:00 Central European time, data on GDP, production and consumption for February will be published. Given that there has already been an increase in retail sales and the total number of hours worked, there is a possibility of positive dynamics in other segments of the economy. In addition, a speech by a representative of the Riksbank of the Seimas on monetary policy issues will be held at 09:00.Norway: inflation remains at the center of controversyThe inflation data for March will be key for the Norwegian market. In February, consumer prices unexpectedly jumped, helped by rising prices for groceries, air travel, and catering services. The main question now is whether this is a sustainable trend or a temporary effect. We tend to believe that most of the growth will be irreversible, but at the same time, the monthly inflation rate will begin to slow down. The forecast for the core CPI is 3.3% in annual terms, which, by historical standards, is rather in the lower range, especially after the strong February report.Denmark: inflation and unemploymentThe March consumer price index in Denmark is expected to be published today. According to forecasts, inflation will slow down from 2.0% to 1.7%, which will be facilitated by lower prices for electricity and fuel. There will also be data on the unemployment rate, which may affect short-term expectations for the krona. Additional context can be found in the "Reading the Markets Denmark" analysis from April 9th.China: inflation is stabilizingConsumer inflation in China in March was slightly below expectations, at -0.1% year-on-year and -0.4% month-on-month. Despite this, the indicator improved significantly compared to February (-0.7% YoY), which indicates the first signs of the effectiveness of the incentive measures taken by the authorities.Energy market: correction after sharp growthOil prices fell by about 1% after Donald Trump's announcement about tightening tariff policy towards China. Despite this, the main benchmark oil grades ended the previous session with an increase of 4%, recovering some of the sharp drop at the beginning of the day. Brent futures are currently trading in the range of 64-65 dollars per barrel.Global Trade: a sharp turnaround by the United StatesThe day before, the US administration announced a 90-day suspension of new duties on most countries in order to create conditions for negotiations. However, tariffs on Chinese goods were increased to 125%. Notably, this decision does not apply to Canada and Mexico. In response, China announced a 50% increase in duties on American goods, bringing the total tariff to 84%. Despite the escalation, the market has begun to reconsider the probability of a recession in the United States — now it is estimated at less than 50% compared to almost 70% previously.USA: Fed is concerned about inflation amid economic slowdownThe minutes of the FOMC meeting showed that the regulator is concerned about rising inflation with a slowdown in business activity and the labor market. The participants noted the difficulty of choosing between supporting economic growth and the need to curb price pressures. Later, Fed spokesman Thomas Barkin emphasized the importance of consumer spending as one of the sustainable elements of the economy at the current stage.The Eurozone: a response to US tariffsThe EU Council voted to impose duties of up to 25% on American goods worth a total of 21 billion euros, including soybeans and motorcycles. This was a response to the US tariffs on steel and aluminum. The Commission hopes to conclude a deal with the United States on the mutual zeroing of duties and an increase in purchases of American energy, but the likelihood of this remains uncertain.Stock markets: violent rebound after panicAfter a series of sales, the US market showed impressive growth: the S&P 500 index jumped by 10%, showing the best result since October 2008. Particularly strong growth was recorded in the technology sector: shares of Tesla, Apple and Nvidia increased by 20%. There is also a positive trend in Asian markets: Nikkei gained 8%, Kospi — 6%, and Chinese indices remain in the black by 2%. European futures are also signaling an opening with an increase of about 7%.Currencies and bonds: the market is adapting to new conditionsThe US decision to suspend tariffs has caused a surge of optimism: yields on short-term US bonds have increased, and the 2s10s curve has significantly tightened. The Fed's rate forecast for the end of the year has been revised up by 20 basis points. The dollar index remained stable, while the euro weakened against the dollar. Emerging market currencies gained support, while defensive assets such as the franc and the yen suffered ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
What thought comes to mind when you read the "Big Mac Index"? Most people will probably think of the McDonald's logo. But for those who are interested in finance, this index can be much more important than just a hamburger.What is the Big Mac Index?The Big Mac index really directly refers to the "Big Mac" of McDonald's. McDonald's is a huge global network of fast food enterprises, covering more than 70-80% of the globe. The Big Mac is used as a reference point for the economy, based on how much the Big Mac costs in each of the countries, which reflects the cost and value of different currencies. The Big Mac burger is used because it is sold in every existing store.Big Mac Index in 2020Country - Price, USDAustralia - 4,13Brazil - 3,63Canada - 4,81Germany - 4, 52Russia - 1,79Spain - 4,52USA - 5,67The famous annual review of The Economist magazineWhen The Economist magazine first introduced the Big Mac Index in 1986, it was conceived as a fun and entertaining way to calculate purchasing power parity. Thirty-four years later, this index has become one of the most quoted and reliable in the world standard, which traders rely on and which is also taught in many economic textbooks.What is purchasing power parity?Purchasing power parity is an economic theory known as a "basket of goods". Purchasing power parity is used as a benchmark to calculate whether the two currencies being compared are in equilibrium.Read more: What is a Benchmark in investment and tradingThe levels are tested through the prism of a fixed set of consumer goods and commodities. The two currencies must be in balance when both are placed in the basket, and must have the same value in each country.In the case of the Big Mac Index, the price of the famous McDonald's Big Mac is the benchmark used to determine purchasing power parity. The theory states that fluctuations in the exchange rate between currencies affect the price that consumers will eventually pay for a hamburger.Why you might be interested in using purchasing power parity for forex tradingFor traders who do not know, purchasing power parity (PPP) is an indicator that is used to compare economic variables, since they differ in different countries. One of the key attributes of the model is that it is formed without taking into account changes in exchange rates and possible distortions.This is the problem of forex traders who want to use this model in their daily trading. Forex traders need data on exchange rates to make informed investment decisions.Unlike purchasing power parity, the Big Mac index is based on differences in exchange rates and directly reflects the value and devaluation of currencies. This makes it a much more effective indicator for forex traders. The Big Mac is also a material object, and not a concept, like purchasing power parity.Read more: What is the devaluation of currencyWhy the Big Mac Index can be a great tool for forecasting the forex marketSince its creation in 1986, the Big Mac index has been a valuable tool for forex traders who wanted to find a connection between the long-term forecast of a currency and its exchange rate. Traders who use the index to predict the market perceive discrepancies between the index and the real exchange rate as a measure of potential future correction of exchange rates. In other words, the index connects the Forex market with commodities and shows the direction where the market can go.As is the case with most theories, this correlation only works until it stops working. Since the cost of a hamburger can be influenced by various factors, the exchange rate is not always an accurate indicator of the strength and direction of the market.But the main reason why the Big Mac is not a reliable indicator is that it does not take into account small short-term fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.It only works for the long term and, therefore, will not help those traders who need to understand the short term. In combination with other indicators, the Big Mac index is an excellent tool that you should be able to use.Example of the Big Mac index in actionLet's look at the following example:If the cost of a Big Mac from McDonald's is $3.75 in the US and 2 pounds sterling in the UK, the exchange rate is expected to be 1.875 (3.75 USD/2 GBP). When the dollar exchange rate rises, the Big Mac index tells us that the pound is overvalued. If the dollar is declining, the index tells us that the pound is undervalued.Why the Big Mac Index can be misleadingInitially, the index was supposed to be more entertaining, since it was far from perfect. McDonald's can influence the index because they make a decision about the cost of their Big Mac burger. Another big disadvantage is that the Big Mac burger does not have any rigid characteristics. Each country has its own type of Big Mac burger, which differs in size, ingredients, and type of bun.Traders can use the Big Mac index as an indicator of commodities.Conclusions about the Big Mac IndexThe Economist came up with the Big Mac Index in 1986 to use it to determine whether currencies are at their "exact" level.Over the past years, this index has become a world standard, many scientific studies have been devoted to it, and it is included in textbooks on economics.Read more: About the Big Mac Index and its ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...
One of the most discussed topics of the American economy is the huge size of the US national debt. Its total volume at the end of 2020 amounted to about $ 27 trillion, which means that the ratio of the total US national debt to GDP is about 128%. Nevertheless, the ultra-low refinancing rate of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) and the high credit ratings of the United States allow spending about 6% of the budget on servicing the national debt, and its nomination in dollars removes the problem of default.The concept of the US national debtThe US national debt is divided into two groups.Intragovernment debt is debt obligations owed by the U.S. Government to its own institutions.Public debt is all federal debt owned by individuals, corporations, municipalities, foreign governments, and other entities not related to the U.S. Government. It is usually associated with the national debt.What is the US national debt in simple words? It can be considered as an accumulated deficit of annual budgets. A chronic budget deficit requires the U.S. Treasury to regularly borrow the money needed to keep the Government running.So, in 2016, at the end of Barack Obama's presidency, this deficit reached almost $600 billion. In the first three years when Donald Trump was president, the debt increased to $1 trillion. In fiscal year 2020, due to the pandemic, the federal budget deficit amounted to $3.1 trillion, which is more than three times higher than recorded a year earlier. In relation to GDP, the deficit in 2020 was 14.9%, compared with 4.6% in 2019 and 3.8% in 2018.Read more: Features of successful Forex trading according to GDP dataNevertheless, so far the ever-growing national debt does not create significant problems for the US budget due to low inflation and the minimum refinancing rate of the Fed.2018Public debt payments (USD billion) - 371Total amount of expenses - 4 109% for servicing the national debt - 9,03%2019Public debt payments (USD billion) - 423Total amount of expenses - 4 447% for servicing the national debt - 9,51%2020Public debt payments (USD billion) - 387Total amount of expenses - 6 552% for servicing the national debt - 5,91%The constant growth of the US national debt is of concern in the long term. The CBO highlights the following risks:rising inflation may prompt the Fed to raise the refinancing rate, which will lead to an increase in the cost of servicing the national debt;the voluminous and growing public debt negatively affects economic growth;the growth of the national debt absorbs money that could have been spent on investments;in a sudden crisis, the state may find that it is limited in spending.Therefore, it is likely that starting from 2021-22, after the end of the pandemic, the growth rate of the national debt will begin to decline, which will be facilitated by political factors. Republicans under Democratic President Joe Biden will return to the usual role of financial conservatives, demanding to reduce the budget deficit, which will lead to a decrease in the dynamics of the Government's debt build-up.US national debt: to whom America owesAs of September 2020, the US external public debt exceeded $7 trillion, which was about 25% of its total volume. By the way, Russia is not among the twenty largest holders of the American national debt.A country - Value (billion dollars) - Share of foreign-owned U.S. debtJapan - 1 276 - 18,05%China - 1 062 - 15,01%Great Britain - 429 - 6,07%For comparison, in the summer of 2020, the Fed owned more than $10 trillion in government debt securities. Therefore, the main holders of the US national debt are the Americans themselves. This factor, as well as its dollar nature, together with the administrative, scientific, economic and military power of the United States, is a prerequisite for the highest credit rating of American government bonds, which makes them a benchmark of reliability in the global debt market.Read more: What is a Benchmark in investment and tradingRating Agency - US Credit Rating - Place of the rating in the classificationS&P - AA+ - 2Moody's - Aaa - 1Fitch - AAA - 1The highest investment rating ensures a steady demand for US government bonds of risk-free categories of investors and guarantees a minimum risk premium. So, at the end of 2020, the yield of ten-year US bonds was less than 1%.Bonds of almost all other countries are considered more risky and are quoted at a certain premium to American securities. The larger the risk premium, the more unstable the market situation and/or the situation in a particular country.So, the essence of the US national debt is the need to regularly fill the American budget deficit. So far, the huge amount of US government debt is not so critical. After all, it is not only the largest economy in the world, but also the fact that it is denominated in dollars, which means that the topic of its default can be excluded. However, it is important to understand that large debts impose large obligations on the debt issuer, and sooner or later the borrowed will have to be returned. The possibility of investing in US bonds has already been touched upon in the Open Journal. We also wrote about the key concepts in the bond ...
Not for the first decade, some economists and politicians gloatingly predict the collapse of the dollar, not realizing that this means a global economic crisis of such magnitude that the most desirable assets will be fresh water, good food and plenty of ammunition. But the shift of the dollar from the throne of the world reserve currency is quite real and not so apocalyptic in consequences.A little historyThe dollar came to the forefront as a result of the Bretton Woods Agreements of 1944, named after the place where the conference that established the post-war world economic order took place. The gold standard was abolished, and the US dollar became the basis of monetary relations and trade settlements. The implementation of the Marshall Plan to rebuild war-torn Europe consolidated the dollar's leading position, which was further reinforced by the fact that the US economy has long been the first in the world (it continues to be so even now, although China's economy is actively coming on its heels).Nominating and making payments in dollars has become a convenient form of global finance. Currently, more than 80% of world trade turnover is calculated in US dollars. Bloomberg estimated that in the interbank turnover in the SWIFT system in the tenth years of the XXI century, about 50% - in dollars, about a third - in euros and a little less than 2% - in yuan.However, back in the 60s of the last century, economist Robert Triffin revealed a contradiction that arises if the currency of only one state is used for international settlements and national currency reserves. It can be formulated as follows: "In order to provide the central banks of other countries with the necessary amount of dollars to form national currency reserves, it is necessary that there is a constant balance of payments deficit in the United States. But a balance of payments deficit undermines confidence in the dollar and reduces its value as a reserve asset, so a balance of payments surplus is required to strengthen confidence." Subsequently, this was called the Triffin's dilemma or paradox. To resolve the contradiction, Triffin proposed creating a special international currency that would not be tied to gold or any national currency, but all this remained a theory.Read more: What is the US Dollar Index DXY and how to trade it?Who sees off the dollar?Nowadays, the discussion about changing the dollar as the world's reserve currency has become mainstream, leaving marginal and conspiracy circles. And the alternative is not the euro, as follows from Doug Casey's statement, which has become very popular in the West: "The US dollar today is a receipt that I don't owe you anything, and the euro is the question — who doesn't owe you anything?". That is, the euro is not ready to replace the dollar. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has published a forecast that in the coming years the dollar will cease to function as the world's reserve currency. The basis for the forecast was the fact that the American stock market suffers collapses one after another. The well-known financier Ulf Lindahl is sure that at the end of 2019 the process of depreciation of the dollar by about 40% against the euro will begin, and in 2020 the process may even become a landslide.As a new world reserve currency, it is proposed to switch to the virtual currency of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - special drawing rights (SDR), created in 1969. SDR is still used only for settlements within the framework of the IMF and several other international organizations. In fact, this is the launch of a solution to the Triffin paradox. So far, it is the SDR that acts as the most acceptable option, including because they are of a non-national nature. Financiers still remember the experiences of 2008-2012 due to rumors that the United States is ready to say goodbye to the dollar and introduce amero: the dependence of the global economy on a single country makes the entire system vulnerable and should be exceeded. Moody's Investors Service analysts also write about this.In this paradigm, it becomes clear why the problem will not be solved if, for example, the world reserve currency becomes the yuan of the People's Republic of China, as pro-leftist politicians and financiers broadcast and dream about. It's simple — it's again the dependence of the whole world on the national currency of one country. No cryptocurrency is suitable as a reserve currency either - because of anonymity and the absence of a single issuing center, which means irresponsibility and impunity: too shaky a foundation for the global economy. The deglobalization of the economy is a medicine that is worse than the disease itself. So it remains for now to sit quietly on the shore and wait for events to develop. Either the SDR will become the new world reserve currency, or the gentlemen from the Bilderberg Club, the Trilateral Commission and other proto-world governments will find another way out and offer some other solution to the problem, but the global financial apocalypse will not be allowed — it is not beneficial to anyone.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...