Germany: Ifo Index and expectationsToday, the key indicator in the eurozone will be the publication of the German Ifo index, which investors are carefully comparing with yesterday's PMI data. Of particular interest is the component of expectations present in the Ifo and absent in the PMI, as it is able to better reflect the impact of trade conflicts, in particular, between the United States and China.USA: moderately positive signals and political noiseDespite weak regional reports from the Fed, the index of business activity in the US industry unexpectedly rose to 50.7, surpassing expectations of 49.1. At the same time, the services sector weakened to 51.4, but remained above the threshold of stagnation. The composite index decreased from 53.5 to 51.2, which still indicates moderate growth. The weakening of export orders in both sectors was offset by steady domestic demand: new orders increased in industry, while they decreased slightly in the service sector.However, against the background of macroeconomic statistics, the political factor has become more active again. There were reports that it was the ministers of finance and trade, Bessent and Latnik, who dissuaded the president from firing Fed Chairman Powell. Bessent also commented on the situation regarding trade negotiations with China, saying that a full-fledged agreement may take 2-3 years, and the resumption of dialogue is impossible without reducing tariffs, which now reach 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on American goods. The possibility of tariff cuts of up to 50% is being discussed on the sidelines, but the White House has not yet confirmed these rumors. This news caused cautious optimism and increased the probability of a deal with China to 38% from 34% previously.An additional boost to the market was given by information from the Financial Times, according to which the US administration may consider the possibility of partially exempting automakers from import duties after appropriate lobbying efforts by the industry.Eurozone: weakness in the service sectorThe combined eurozone business activity index fell to 50.1 in April, while the drop in the services sector to 49.7 was unexpected. On the contrary, the manufacturing PMI showed positive dynamics, exceeding forecasts and reaching 48.7. Despite this, pressure on the ECB towards additional easing remains, especially since the price components also indicate a weakening of the inflationary pressure. The employment rate in the service sector, however, remains positive at 50.8, which mitigates the negative effect of the decline in the overall index.The update of the ECB wage index also indicates a slowdown in wage growth in 2025, which strengthens the case for lower rates. According to current expectations, the deposit rate may be lowered to 1.5% by September 2025.UK: alarming signs of stagflationThe PMI figures for April in the UK turned out to be worse than expected across the board. The composite index fell to 48.2, signaling a reduction in business activity. The indices for services and production were 48.9 and 44.0, respectively. At the same time, there is an increase in both incoming and outgoing prices, and employment continues to decline. This combination indicates the risk of a stagflationary scenario, which significantly complicates the task of the Bank of England in terms of monetary policy.Energy market: uncertainty over OPEC+ quotasOil prices fell by 2% after reports that several OPEC+ countries called for an additional increase in production in June, similar to the decision taken in May. Kazakhstan, in turn, stated that it was not ready to compensate for the excess production of the previous period with cuts. Eight OPEC+ countries will meet on May 5 to discuss the future quota. Due to continued pressure on prices in the second quarter, the average Brent price is expected to be around $70 per barrel, with a subsequent recovery to $85 in the fourth quarter.Stock markets: rising amid political optimismBuyers prevailed on stock markets, despite contradictory macro data. Cyclical sectors led the way, both in the USA and in Europe. The market continues to live under the influence of paradoxes: rising bond yields, a strengthening dollar, and a simultaneous rally in risky assets. The profitable reports of the companies also added to the positive. Indices in the USA ended the day with growth: Dow +1,1%, S&P 500 +1,7%, Nasdaq +2,5%, Russell 2000 +1,5%. However, Asia has been showing a decline since this morning, and futures for the United States and Europe also point to a correction amid cooling political optimism.Bonds and the foreign exchange market: caution returnsWhile Finance Minister Bessant acknowledged the excesses of the current tariffs on Chinese goods, he emphasized the strategic task of redefining U.S. global economic relations. His speech cooled the euphoria of the markets: the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rebounded from daily lows and reached 4.39%, indicating an increase in expectations for inflation and interest ...
The week ends with a fairly modest volume of macroeconomic statistics, and investors' main attention is focused on the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment data for April. The preliminary estimate has already alarmed the markets due to a new surge in inflation expectations, which increases uncertainty about the trajectory of interest rates in the United States.Inflationary signals from JapanThe published inflation data in Tokyo for April exceeded expectations: the overall indicator accelerated to 3.5% in annual terms (the previous value was 2.9%), and core inflation rose to 3.4% (against the forecast of 3.2%). The main reason was the rise in prices for a wide range of goods and services. The beginning of a new fiscal year in Japan is traditionally accompanied by a review of companies' pricing policies, and this year rising costs have become the main reason for the increase in consumer prices. Taking into account the expected acceleration of wages, the Bank of Japan is likely to continue its course towards a gradual normalization of monetary policy, unless trade restrictions from the United States turn out to be critical.US data: short-term surge in ordersIn the United States, data on durable goods orders for March turned out to be significantly higher than expected, with an increase of 9.2% compared with a forecast of 2.0%. However, such a strong result is largely due to temporary factors, in particular, a sharp increase in aircraft orders (primarily Boeing). Excluding the aviation sector, the growth in orders was minimal, which caused a weak market reaction.Comments from the Fed representativesThe speeches of representatives of the Federal Reserve System demonstrated a divergence of opinion. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland spoke out with harsh rhetoric, insisting on a wait-and-see attitude regarding the impact of duties on the economy. At the same time, Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, took a softer stance, not ruling out an increase in unemployment. Neel Kashkari, who heads the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that the US trade policy causes him concern about possible mass layoffs in the future. On Saturday, the so-called period of silence begins before the May Fed meeting. The probability of a rate change is extremely low, and the baseline scenario assumes a decrease in June with subsequent steps of 25 bps each quarter to the level of 3.00–3.25% by mid-2026.Trade tensions: China is not backing downChina made a harsh statement yesterday, demanding that the United States completely abolish unilateral tariffs as a condition for starting negotiations. Despite Washington's statements about its desire to reduce tensions, negotiations are not underway yet. Moreover, the Chinese authorities have denied any rumors about current contacts.Companies are also responding to trade instability. According to the Financial Times, Apple plans to move iPhone production for the American market from China to India as early as next year.Germany: positive surprise from the Ifo indexThe Ifo business climate index for April in Germany surprised with growth. The indicator of the current situation rose to 86.4 against the expected decline, and the component of expectations decreased only slightly to 87.4. The construction sector and services made the largest contribution to maintaining positions, while signs of pressure were recorded in the manufacturing sector, including against the background of trade barriers. However, there has not yet been a large-scale negative similar to the PMI data.Stock markets: the positive remainsU.S. stock indexes continued to rise, with stocks of cyclical and technology companies particularly strong. The Nasdaq index gained 2.7%, the S&P 500 — 2.0%, and the Dow - 1.2%. Market participants continue to ignore the current economic data, focusing on the prospects for de-escalation of the trade conflict. Signals from the United States yesterday also indicated a softening of the position.In Asia, trading opened in the "green zone", which was facilitated by rumors about a possible cancellation by China of some tariffs on American goods. Stock index futures in the United States and Europe are also showing growth on the back of positive corporate reports.Debt and foreign exchange market: fluctuations without a clear trendDuring yesterday's session, there was an increase in bond prices and a decrease in yields in both the United States and the eurozone. The US dollar weakened slightly against the euro, but managed to regain its lost ground in the early hours of Friday morning. In conditions of a shortage of important macro statistics, market participants will monitor geopolitical statements and signals from ...
Macroeconomic background: expectations for the dayToday promises to be a calm day in terms of the release of macroeconomic data. Market participants' attention remains focused on uncertainty in global trade and possible signals from US President Donald Trump.In the eurozone, the focus will be on the April consumer confidence indicator. After a significant increase last year, consumer sentiment began to deteriorate again, and trade tensions in April likely intensified this process.In Sweden, the latest data on the unemployment rate is expected to be published. Given the continuing risks for companies that constrain their staffing plans, the negative trend may continue. Nevertheless, we forecast a decrease in the unemployment rate by the end of the year, although it will take several months to be sure.Key events of the week: PMI and tariff negotiationsThe key events of the week will be the publication of business activity indices (PMI) for April, scheduled for Wednesday. These data will provide the first estimates of the impact of trade uncertainty after Liberation Day. Any progress in the negotiation process between the United States and China, as well as changes in investor sentiment, will continue to affect market dynamics.An overview of Easter Week eventsIn the US, March retail sales showed resilience, rising by 1.4%, which was in line with expectations. Despite the decrease in gasoline prices, which held back the overall figure, the growth in sales of cars and catering services supported the overall dynamics. This suggests that so far weak consumer sentiment indicators have not had a serious impact on real spending.The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing activity indicator weakened sharply in April, falling from 8.7 to -34.2 points. This may indicate a possible deterioration in the PMI in the first release after the holidays.Fed officials in their statements during Easter confirmed their commitment to a wait-and-see attitude. Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the need for caution, and New York Fed President John Williams also does not expect urgent policy changes. At the same time, market participants' attention is focused on Trump's ongoing attacks on the Fed's independence.European policy: results of the ECB meetingThe European Central Bank, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. The regulator's comments were generally "mild": the risks of a slowdown in economic growth were emphasized with a moderate assessment of inflationary threats. This caused a decline in European bond yields and a local weakening of the euro against the dollar, although weak statistics from the United States then supported the cross.Our forecast assumes the continuation of the ECB rate reduction cycle, with the aim of reducing the deposit rate to 1.50% by September 2025.China and the Trade WarsChinese regulators kept the base rates at 3.10% for one-year loans and 3.60% for five-year loans. However, on the political front, Beijing has accused the United States of abusing its tariff policy and warned other countries against entering into agreements with Washington to the detriment of China. This statement was made against the background of rumors about possible US pressure measures on third countries as part of a trade confrontation.UK inflation and Bank of England policyIn the UK, inflation in March was below forecasts. The annual growth rate of consumer prices decreased to 2.6%, mainly due to cheaper transport services and leisure goods. The slowdown in inflationary pressure reinforces expectations of another rate cut by the Bank of England at its meeting in May.Central bank decisions: Denmark, Canada, TurkeyThe central bank of Denmark followed the example of the ECB and lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.85%. The Bank of Canada maintained its rate at 2.75%, confirming its commitment to an inflation target of 2% and supplementing the forecast with two scenarios depending on the further escalation of the trade war.The central bank of Turkey unexpectedly raised the rate immediately by 350 basis points to 46%, which was a surprise to the markets.Japan: inflation and policy of the Bank of JapanIn Japan, core inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year in March, in line with forecasts. The head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, confirmed his readiness to continue tightening monetary policy if inflation continues to accelerate, although a cautious approach remains amid uncertainty in global trade.Commodity markets: oil and goldOil prices dropped by more than 2% due to expectations of progress in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. In the morning, Brent crude oil is trading around $67 per barrel.Gold prices continue to update records, approaching the level of $ 3,488 per troy ounce, reflecting the steady demand for safe haven assets.Stock markets: mood remains tenseAgainst the background of the Easter holidays, stock markets showed weakness. American indices have lost more than 4% over the past five trading days, while European markets have shown moderate growth. Volatility has increased: the VIX index has risen to 33 points. At the same time, the growth of the euro adds pressure on dollar assets in investors' portfolios.Debt market and currenciesThe US dollar continues to decline amid political instability and pressure on the Fed from the White House. Short-term rates in the United States have fallen, while long-term rates continue to rise, indicating an increase in the yield gap. Against the background of the ECB's softening position, yields in Europe continue to decline, and the EUR/SEK pair is moving towards fair levels around ...
Dollar decline amid concerns about the Fed's independenceIn today's low-volume trading due to the holiday period, the US dollar came under widespread pressure, which was helped by growing concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve System. Investors are alarmed after statements by White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett that President Donald Trump continues to explore the possibility of removing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Despite the fact that the legal basis for such actions remains questionable and unclear, the very fact of possible political interference in the process of monetary policy formation has seriously undermined the confidence of market participants.Rising risks amid US trade policyThe escalation of the conflict between the presidential administration and the Federal Reserve is taking place against the background of the already existing uncertainty caused by Washington's aggressive trade policy. New tariff measures and retaliatory duties are exacerbating the situation: Fed officials, including Powell, have repeatedly warned that increased trade barriers could simultaneously accelerate inflation and slow down economic growth, increasing the likelihood of a stagflationary scenario. The threat of interference in the independence of the Federal Reserve increases market instability and significantly increases long-term risks for American assets.Protecting the independence of the FedJerome Powell, in turn, strongly defends the independence of the central bank. Speaking last week, he stressed: "We will never succumb to political pressure... Our independence is enshrined in law." Powell also recalled that members of the Board of Governors can be removed only on serious grounds, and not because of differences in political views. Nevertheless, the escalation of the confrontation with the White House has already cast a shadow on the reputation of key American institutions. The markets did not remain indifferent: investors began to actively withdraw capital from the dollar in favor of alternative assets.Rising demand for Euro and goldAmid falling confidence in US assets, the euro became the main beneficiary of today's trading session. With the dollar declining, investors are looking for reliable and liquid alternatives, and the euro, with its deep financial market, relative political stability, and reputable central bank, has become one of the preferred destinations. The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are also holding steady, but it was the euro and gold that received the most support, which remain the main safe haven assets in the face of increased ...
The year 2022 on world markets will largely be determined by the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, and the first week of the new year confirmed this. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting published last week showed a significant tightening of the position of the regulator's representatives – Fed members believe that the rate can be raised as early as March, and also see a faster reduction in the balance sheet as appropriate. Representatives of the regulator believe that the current economic conditions are already in many ways conducive to tightening the labor market, some even noted the recovery of the labor market already sufficient for such actions, although the majority still expects further improvement in the labor situation. Against this background, it is worth noting the publication of December labor data in the United States, which came out ambiguous. On the one hand, employment in December increased by only 200 thousand. The Bloomberg consensus forecast assumed an employment growth of 450 thousand, and the actual growth rate of the indicator was the lowest since the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, in many respects such weak employment growth is explained by seasonal adjustment, and the unemployment rate in December fell more than expected. Thus, the indicator has updated the next lows since the beginning of the pandemic, dropping to 3.90% against the expected 4.10%. The unemployment rate continues to approach a historic low of 3.40%, and labor statistics have further increased fears in the market of an imminent tightening of the PREP in the United States. As a result, on Friday, the yields of ten-year US treasuries at the moment exceeded 1.80% per annum - the maximum since the beginning of the pandemic. Today they have returned to these levels again.This week, the dynamics in the market will continue to be determined by expectations for the actions of regulators - investors will follow the statements of representatives of the Fed and the ECB, as well as the publication of price data in the United States for December. Statistics published last week showed an increase in inflation in the EU to 5.00% YoY. As a result, the topics of price growth in December updated the historical maximum, while analysts expected a slight slowdown in price growth. The situation on the supply side also has high inflation in the United States. The December business activity indices indicated a slight easing of logistical problems, however, the further deterioration of the epidemiological situation again intensified disruptions in logistics chains, which does not lead to a significant slowdown in price growth. The FAO World Food Price index fell in December for the first time since July, but food inflation remains at elevated levels. Against this background, US inflation data is likely to continue to bring the Fed rate hike closer, intensifying the negative in the markets.The main event for the oil market in early 2022 was the OPEC+ meeting. However, as expected, it was decided to stick to the current plan to increase production. Nevertheless, the cartel lowered its forecasts for a surplus in the oil market, which allowed Brent crude futures to exceed the level of $80/bbl. Moreover, against the background of interruptions in the supply of black gold from Kazakhstan and Libya, quotations were close to $83/bbl. However, at the end of the week they declined from these levels, today Brent futures are growing by 0.35% and are trading around $82.05/bbl. The main negative for oil this week may be related to the potential strengthening of the dollar amid expectations of a tightening of the PREP in the United States. However, in the absence of a significant strengthening of the dollar, Brent futures may still exceed the levels of $83/bbl– - the quotes may be supported by another weekly decline in oil ...
What thought comes to mind when you read the "Big Mac Index"? Most people will probably think of the McDonald's logo. But for those who are interested in finance, this index can be much more important than just a hamburger.What is the Big Mac Index?The Big Mac index really directly refers to the "Big Mac" of McDonald's. McDonald's is a huge global network of fast food enterprises, covering more than 70-80% of the globe. The Big Mac is used as a reference point for the economy, based on how much the Big Mac costs in each of the countries, which reflects the cost and value of different currencies. The Big Mac burger is used because it is sold in every existing store.Big Mac Index in 2020Country - Price, USDAustralia - 4,13Brazil - 3,63Canada - 4,81Germany - 4, 52Russia - 1,79Spain - 4,52USA - 5,67The famous annual review of The Economist magazineWhen The Economist magazine first introduced the Big Mac Index in 1986, it was conceived as a fun and entertaining way to calculate purchasing power parity. Thirty-four years later, this index has become one of the most quoted and reliable in the world standard, which traders rely on and which is also taught in many economic textbooks.What is purchasing power parity?Purchasing power parity is an economic theory known as a "basket of goods". Purchasing power parity is used as a benchmark to calculate whether the two currencies being compared are in equilibrium.Read more: What is a Benchmark in investment and tradingThe levels are tested through the prism of a fixed set of consumer goods and commodities. The two currencies must be in balance when both are placed in the basket, and must have the same value in each country.In the case of the Big Mac Index, the price of the famous McDonald's Big Mac is the benchmark used to determine purchasing power parity. The theory states that fluctuations in the exchange rate between currencies affect the price that consumers will eventually pay for a hamburger.Why you might be interested in using purchasing power parity for forex tradingFor traders who do not know, purchasing power parity (PPP) is an indicator that is used to compare economic variables, since they differ in different countries. One of the key attributes of the model is that it is formed without taking into account changes in exchange rates and possible distortions.This is the problem of forex traders who want to use this model in their daily trading. Forex traders need data on exchange rates to make informed investment decisions.Unlike purchasing power parity, the Big Mac index is based on differences in exchange rates and directly reflects the value and devaluation of currencies. This makes it a much more effective indicator for forex traders. The Big Mac is also a material object, and not a concept, like purchasing power parity.Read more: What is the devaluation of currencyWhy the Big Mac Index can be a great tool for forecasting the forex marketSince its creation in 1986, the Big Mac index has been a valuable tool for forex traders who wanted to find a connection between the long-term forecast of a currency and its exchange rate. Traders who use the index to predict the market perceive discrepancies between the index and the real exchange rate as a measure of potential future correction of exchange rates. In other words, the index connects the Forex market with commodities and shows the direction where the market can go.As is the case with most theories, this correlation only works until it stops working. Since the cost of a hamburger can be influenced by various factors, the exchange rate is not always an accurate indicator of the strength and direction of the market.But the main reason why the Big Mac is not a reliable indicator is that it does not take into account small short-term fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.It only works for the long term and, therefore, will not help those traders who need to understand the short term. In combination with other indicators, the Big Mac index is an excellent tool that you should be able to use.Example of the Big Mac index in actionLet's look at the following example:If the cost of a Big Mac from McDonald's is $3.75 in the US and 2 pounds sterling in the UK, the exchange rate is expected to be 1.875 (3.75 USD/2 GBP). When the dollar exchange rate rises, the Big Mac index tells us that the pound is overvalued. If the dollar is declining, the index tells us that the pound is undervalued.Why the Big Mac Index can be misleadingInitially, the index was supposed to be more entertaining, since it was far from perfect. McDonald's can influence the index because they make a decision about the cost of their Big Mac burger. Another big disadvantage is that the Big Mac burger does not have any rigid characteristics. Each country has its own type of Big Mac burger, which differs in size, ingredients, and type of bun.Traders can use the Big Mac index as an indicator of commodities.Conclusions about the Big Mac IndexThe Economist came up with the Big Mac Index in 1986 to use it to determine whether currencies are at their "exact" level.Over the past years, this index has become a world standard, many scientific studies have been devoted to it, and it is included in textbooks on economics.Read more: About the Big Mac Index and its ...
The dollar fell against the Canadian dollar and hovered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury bond yields were little moved amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in the near future.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated on Monday that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, lowering expectations that inflationary pressures could force the Fed to change policy sooner than stated.Read more: Causes of inflation and scientific approaches to their studyThe yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 1.6454%, continuing a decline from last week's five-week high.The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies was down 0.19% to 89.991 by 09:34. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.2181, close to its lowest level since February 26. At the same time, the pound rose 0.31% to $1.4178. The British currency was supported by the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the UK.The Canadian dollar rose 0.31% against the US dollar to $1.2029, almost hitting a six-year high, thanks to higher oil prices. "The Aussie rose 0.46% to $0.7799. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% to $0.7242.The mainland yuan rose 0.2% to 6.4257. The Japanese yen rose 0.1 per cent paired with the dollar, to 109.08 yen.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.81% to $45.255 but remained near a three-month low following tweet from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Etherium rose 7.58% to $3,529.95, recovering from a two-week low hit on Monday.Read more: The history of Federal Reserve (Fed) and its ...