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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, silver and oil for Thursday, November 16

EUR/GBP, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/GBP, NZD/USD, silver and oil for Thursday, November 16

EUR/GBP: the euro is recovering after a decline at the beginning of the week

The EUR/GBP currency pair shows a slight increase, continuing the trend set by yesterday's "bullish" trend. The exchange rate is approaching the 0.8745 mark, trying to overcome it with an upward movement, supported by fresh inflation data from the UK.

In October, the UK consumer price index fell from 0.5% to 0.0%, being slightly below expectations at 0.1%. The annual index fell from 6.7% to 4.6%, while forecasts indicated a drop to 4.8%. The core inflation index also adjusted from 6.1% to 5.7%, with an estimated value of 5.8%. The retail price index showed a decrease of 0.2% after an increase of 0.5% in the previous month, and its annual value decreased from 8.9% to 6.1%, although analysts had expected 6.4%. These statistics, similar to the American ones, suggest that the Bank of England may soon abandon further tightening of monetary policy.

  • Resistance levels: 0.8750, 0.8777, 0.8817, 0.8854.
  • Support levels: 0.8732, 0.8710, 0.8686, 0.8669.

NZD/USD: The fall of the currency pair after an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the resistance level of 0.6045

On the eve of the session, the NZD/USD currency pair tried to overcome the resistance level of 0.6045, but failed to do so, followed by its decline against the background of disappointing economic data from New Zealand.

The October indicator of the service efficiency index dropped to 48.9 points compared to the previous value of 50.6 points, and the aggregate per capita income index decreased to 46.1 points from the previous 48.6 points. Food inflation fell to 6.3% in October, which is lower than the expected 7.4% and the previous 8.0%. In light of these statistics, representatives of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may decide not to raise interest rates at the upcoming meeting on November 29, putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6045, 0.6245.
  • Support levels: 0.5865, 0.5790, 0.5750.

Silver Prices

The precious metal remains unchanged, having stabilized near the level of 23.40. There is a neutral dynamics of the pair, due to the closure of some long-term positions against the background of economic statistics from the United States.

In October, the US consumer price index fell from 0.4% to 0.0%, with analysts' expectations of 0.1%, and its annual index decreased from 3.7% to 3.2%, which is slightly lower than the forecast of 3.3%. Such inflation data are regarded by investors as a likely signal for the end of the cycle of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Also, the producer price index fell by 0.5% compared with an increase of 0.4% in the previous month, while its annual indicator decreased from 2.2% to 1.3%, which is less than the expected 1.9%. Retail sales volumes decreased by 0.1% after an increase of 0.9% in September, contradicting forecasts of -0.3%. Today, investors will focus on the speeches of representatives of the US Federal Reserve, who can comment on the latest inflation statistics, and will also closely monitor data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits and industrial production volumes for October.

  • Resistance levels: 23.60, 23.83, 24.00, 24.20.
  • Support levels: 23.32, 23.00, 22.70, 22.46.

Crude Oil Market Analysis

During the Asian trading session, the price of Brent crude oil continues its corrective course, which began on Tuesday after the failure to hold the highs on November 7, and is currently trying to overcome the level of 80.40.

At yesterday's trading, investors focused on the indicator of the October producer price index in the United States, which fell from 0.4% to -0.5% on a monthly basis, and from 2.2% to 1.3% on an annual basis. This reinforced expectations of a slowdown in consumer price growth and, accordingly, the stabilization of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. There was also a decrease in retail sales by -0.1% compared to the previous 0.9%, against forecasts of -0.3%.

In addition, recently published data on the dynamics of commercial reserves of oil and petroleum products in the United States have put additional pressure on hydrocarbon quotes. According to a report by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), for the week ended November 10, inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels to 439.4 million barrels, exceeding analysts' expectations by 1.8 million barrels. At the same time, oil production in the United States remains at a record level of 13.2 million barrels per day. Gasoline reserves decreased by 1.5 million barrels, and diesel fuel — by 1.4 million barrels, reflecting high domestic demand for energy resources.

  • Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.27, 83.12, 83.89.
  • Support levels: 80.00, 79.12, 78.00, 77.00.
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Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY for Monday, June 17, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/JPY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY for Monday, June 17, 2024 EUR/USD: downtrend is expected to intensifyDuring the Asian session, the EUR/USD exchange rate was fixed near 1.0700, partly due to the easing of the policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and weak economic statistics from the eurozone countries.The ECB lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, while the US Federal Reserve maintained the rate at 5.50%, which contributed to the EUR/USD pair breaking down the 1.0737 mark. The April decline in industrial production in the European Union to -0.1% monthly, contrary to analysts' expectations of 0.1% growth, and revised data from the previous month from 0.6% to 0.5% confirmed the weakness of economic activity. At the same time, inflation in France decreased slightly: the monthly figure decreased from 0.2% to 0.1%, and the annual figure decreased from 2.7% to 2.6%, without providing the euro with significant support for strengthening. These factors suggest that the pressure on the euro may continue in the medium term.Resistance levels: 1.0760, 1.0890, 1.0976.Support levels: 1.0613, 1.0460, 1.0290.GBP/USD: at Bank of America Corp. it's expected that the British rate will not change and will amount to 5.25%The GBP/USD pair is showing a slight drop, continuing the downward strengthening trend that began at the end of last week after updating the lows for May 17. The currency instrument is approaching the level of 1.2680, where a breakdown down is possible, but traders refrain from active actions ahead of new data on the state of the UK economy.Inflation data for May is expected next Wednesday: the consumer price index is expected to fall from 2.3% to 2.0%, and the main inflation indicator will decrease from 3.9% to 3.5%. It is also predicted that the producer purchase price index will decrease by 0.3% after an increase of 0.6% in April, and the producer selling price index will decrease from 0.2% to 0.1%, while the retail price index should decrease from 3.3% to 3.1%.The published inflation figures will be available on the eve of the Bank of England meeting, at which a rate cut of 25 basis points is possible. Analysts from Bank of America Corp. It is believed that the regulator will leave the rate at 5.25%, fearing the consequences of too early monetary policy easing. After April's data on inflation and wages, which showed insufficient improvement to change the course to a softer one, the authorities are looking for additional evidence that the risks of price increases in the service sector have been minimized.Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2800.Support levels: 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2568, 1.2539.USD/CHF: adapting to long-term growthThe USD/CHF pair is observing a correction, approaching the value of 0.8878 due to disappointing American macroeconomic statistics, which allows it to return to long-term growth.In the United States, the producer price index fell by 0.2% in May compared with a month earlier, falling short of the projected 0.1% after rising by 0.5% a month earlier. The base value of the index remained unchanged, contrary to analysts' expectations of 0.3% and the previous indicator of 0.5%. There was also an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits to 242.0 thousand, while 225.0 thousand were predicted. At the same time, it is possible that the decline in the dollar will be offset by data from Switzerland, where the producer price index decreased from the expected 0.5% to -0.3% after the previous increase of 0.6%.Resistance levels: 0.9005, 0.9150.Support levels: 0.8880, 0.8715.USD/JPY: Central Bank of Japan is preparing to cut purchases of government bondsThe USD/JPY pair stabilized its positions at the level of 157.62, approaching April highs caused by the bullish surge of the yen in response to currency interventions by the Bank of Japan.At the last meeting on Friday, the members of the Bank of Japan left the rate at the level of 0.00% to 0.10% and announced plans to reduce the volume of purchases of government bonds, the details of which will be worked out by the next meetings on July 30 and 31. This decision was supported by eight of the nine board members. After the meeting, the regulator will present concrete steps to reduce its unprecedentedly large balance sheet, which will be part of a strategy to end the period of aggressive economic stimulus aimed at freer formation of long-term interest rates in the financial market. According to analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the bank will gradually reduce bond purchases from 6 trillion yen to 5 trillion yen per month, predicting that the yield on ten-year bonds will reach 2.0% by the end of 2026, and the key interest rate will range from 1.25% to 1.50% by 2027. While the head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, did not rule out a rate hike in July due to the pressure caused by the rise in import prices and the weakening of the yen, the regulator stressed that all decisions will be made on the basis of up-to-date economic information.Support levels: 156.70, 154.70.Resistance levels: 158.30, 160.20.
Jun 17, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Solana and Oil for Thursday, June 13, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Ethereum/USD, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin/USD, cryptocurrency, Brent Crude Oil, commodities, WTI Crude Oil, commodities, Solana, cryptocurrency, Analytical Forex forecast for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Solana and Oil for Thursday, June 13, 2024 AUD/USD: Australian Dollar declines after May recordsThe AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a drop, rolling back after yesterday's surge, when new local highs were reached since May 20, despite strengthening based on positive May data on the Australian labor market.The employment rate in Australia increased by 39.7 thousand, continuing to grow after adding 37.4 thousand in April, which significantly exceeds analysts' expectations, which assumed an increase of 30.0 thousand Full-time employment increased by 41.7 thousand, despite the previous decrease of 7.6 thousand, while part-time employment decreased by 2.1 thousand, after an increase of 45.0 thousand in the previous month. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.1% to 4.0%. These impressive figures confirm the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) ability to ease monetary policy further.Meanwhile, the US dollar is stabilizing after the average trading session: The US Federal Reserve, following its last meeting, left the key rate at 5.50%, but left the door open for a rate cut in 2024. New economic forecasts from the Fed show a potential one and a half rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of this year, although market expectations hint at two such cuts. The latest US inflation data show a reduction in risks, which led to increased confidence among analysts in the possibility of the first rate cut in September. Core inflation, excluding the cost of food and energy resources, showed a slowdown to 3.4% per annum and to 0.2% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 0.6667, 0.6679, 0.6700, 0.6725.Support levels: 0.6646, 0.6622, 0.6600, 0.6578.NZD/USD: Federal Reserve System confirmed the rate of 5.5% per annumDuring the Asian trading session, the NZD/USD currency pair is observing a moderate decline, reaching the level of 0.6166, after having recorded highs since January 15 a day earlier. This happened against the background of data on consumer inflation in the United States and the results of the recent Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.At the last Fed meeting, the rate was kept at 5.5%. However, investors were particularly interested in the revised forecasts for the rate movement, which now show a decrease to 5.13% by the end of 2024, while previous estimates suggested a decrease to 4.60%. By the end of next year, it is expected to decrease to 4.13%, which is higher than the previously expected 3.90%. Current interest rate futures predict an even deeper decline of 46 basis points before the end of the year. At the same time, the May consumer price index showed a decrease from 3.4% to 3.3% in annual terms and from 0.3% to 0% on a monthly basis, while the base index decreased from 3.6% to 3.4%, which is lower than forecasts of 3.5%.Weak national macroeconomic statistics also have a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar: the volume of retail sales carried out using electronic cards fell by 1.6% year-on-year in May after a decrease of 3.8% earlier, and decreased from -0.4% to -1.1% on a monthly basis.Resistance levels: 0.6175, 0.6200, 0.6221, 0.6250.Support levels: 0.6152, 0.6130, 0.6100, 0.6082.Cryptocurrency market overviewThe quotes of the SOL/USD pair continue to weaken, aiming for a support level around 145.00, which has developed since last summer.The opinions of cryptocurrency market analysts differ: some experts suggest that the SEC's positive decision on applications for the creation of spot Ethereum ETFs may contribute to the launch of a similar fund based on Solana, which will support the growth of the value of SOL/USD. At the same time, other experts point to judicial decisions regarding the Coinbase and Kraken exchanges, where the SOL token was classified as a security, which may become an obstacle to its trading, although cases against Solana Labs have not been initiated.During this period, the company is strengthening control over the activities of validators: 30 operators were excluded from the delegation program for violations, having lost the opportunity to receive rewards for participating in the verification of transactions in the blockchain. According to CoinDesk, some bots were used for manipulation on decentralized financial platforms. In March, in the wake of the surge in popularity of meme tokens on Solana, Jito Labs temporarily disabled the mempool to prevent "sandwich attacks", but then activity increased again in private pools. Tim Garcia, who oversees the work with validators at Solana, confirmed that the company will continue to combat abuse by identifying and terminating cooperation with operators involved in unfair practices.Resistance levels: 159.60, 183.40.Support levels: 145.20, 121.00.Oil market overviewBrent Crude Oil prices are experiencing moderate growth, holding near the $82.00 per barrel mark.This increase is supported by forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which global oil demand will reach 103.2 million barrels per day in 2024, which is 1 million barrels more than in 2023. In the following years, the agency expects further growth in demand: up to 104.2 million barrels in 2025 and up to 105.0 million barrels per day in 2026. In parallel, the IEA predicts an increase in capital investments in the development of extractive capacities: after $ 538.0 billion was invested in this area in 2023, it is expected that in 2024 these investments will increase by at least 7%. This is especially true for non-OPEC+ countries, such as the United States.Resistance levels: 82.90, 85.10.Support levels: 81.10, 78.30.
Jun 13, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and AUD/USD for Friday, June 7, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and AUD/USD for Friday, June 7, 2024 GBP/USD: Bank of England is expected to lower the rate on June 20In the context of the weakening of the US dollar, the GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing a correction, stabilizing at the level of 1.2788.However, the British pound is also losing ground amid disappointing economic data: in May, the indicator of business activity in the UK services sector fell to 52.9 points from the previous 55.0, and in construction rose to 54.7 points from 53.0. The composite index decreased to 53.0 points from 54.1, remaining in the "green" zone. The pound is also under pressure from the likelihood of an early interest rate cut by the Bank of England, especially given that the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank have already made similar rate cuts of 25 basis points.As for the US dollar, its quotes continue to fall, reaching the level of 103.90 USDX in the morning. This reflects investors' uncertainty after the latest data on the slowdown in the US labor market, which is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve System in shaping monetary policy. For example, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased to 229.0 thousand from 221.0 thousand last week, approaching an annual maximum, while labor costs in the first quarter amounted to 4.0%, which was lower than expectations of 4.7%. In such circumstances, the prospects for a stronger dollar look unlikely, and the current trend may continue.Resistance levels: 1.2810, 1.3000.Support levels: 1.2753, 1.2620.USD/CHF: unemployment rate in Switzerland is gradually decreasingThe USD/CHF currency pair continues to move in a corrective downtrend, settling at 0.8897 due to the weakening of the US dollar and the slowdown in the strengthening of the Swiss franc after the latest economic reports.According to the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the unemployment rate in May remained at 2.3%, unchanged from previous figures. There were 105,465 thousand unemployed people in the registration cards of employment centers, which is 1,492 thousand less than in April and 17,389 thousand more than in the same period last year. In May, 176,422 thousand registered job seekers were registered, which is 1,148 thousand less than in April, but 22,954 thousand more than a year ago. These data indicate a stabilization and some improvement in the labor market situation in Switzerland.Support levels: 0.8882, 0.8743.Resistance levels: 0.8935, 0.9023.USD/CAD: focus is on the May report on employment in the United StatesThe USD/CAD currency pair shows ambiguous trading movements, hovering around the 1.3670 level, with an overall low level of market activity in anticipation of new economic incentives.Today, the US labor market report for May is due to be published, which may have a significant impact on the further actions of the Federal Reserve System regarding monetary policy in 2024. It is expected that the number of jobs outside agriculture will increase from 175.0 thousand to 185.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage, which affects the inflation rate, is expected to be 0.3% compared with the previous value of 0.2%. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.9%. Investors' attention is focused on business activity data in May: the index in the services sector rose from 51.3 to 54.8 points, and the composite index — from 51.3 to 54.5 points. These indicators indicate the recovery of the national economy, despite the strict policy of the regulator, which supports high inflation risks and the likelihood of maintaining the key interest rate at a high level during the year.Resistance levels: 1.3675, 1.3700, 1.3730, 1.3762.Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3614, 1.3580, 1.3550.AUD/USD: recovery of the Australian dollar by the end of the weekThe AUD/USD currency pair is experiencing a corrective movement, trying to overcome the 0.6675 level up: the market remains active, despite the preliminary expectation of the May report on the American labor market. Forecasts suggest an increase in the number of jobs created in the non-agricultural sector from 175.0 thousand to 185.0 thousand, while the average hourly wage and unemployment rate are likely to remain at 3.9%.Meanwhile, economic indicators from China are once again supporting the Australian dollar, indicating a faster recovery of the Chinese economy. Thus, exports to China increased by 7.6% in May after 1.5% in the previous month, while imports decreased from 8.4% to 1.8%, with initial estimates of 4.2%. This led to an increase in the trade surplus from $72.35 billion to $82.62 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $73.0 billion.In Australia, on the contrary, May trade showed a decrease: exports fell by 2.5% after a 0.6% decline a month earlier, and imports decreased by 7.2% after an increase of 4.2%. This led to an increase in the trade balance from 4.84 billion Australian dollars to 6.55 billion. Australian Finance Minister Jim Chalmers attributed the country's low GDP growth to high interest rates, persistent inflation and global uncertainty, but noted that the economy had managed to avoid recession, unlike many OECD countries.Resistance levels: 0.6679, 0.6700, 0.6725, 0.6750.Support levels: 0.6667, 0.6646, 0.6622, 0.6600.
Jun 07, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/TRY and USD/CAD for Thursday, June 6, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/CHF, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/TRY and USD/CAD for Thursday, June 6, 2024 EUR/USD: asset correction pending ECB decisionThe EUR/USD currency pair continues to follow the corrective trend, holding at 1.0888, despite the temporary weakening of the US dollar and balanced economic indicators from the European Union.In May, the indicator of business activity in the Spanish service sector increased from 56.2 to 56.9 points. In Italy, the index fell slightly from 54.3 to 54.2 points, in France it decreased from 51.3 to 49.3 points, while in Germany it increased from 53.2 to 54.2 points. The overall index for the region was 53.2 points, slightly lower than the previous value of 53.3 points, which demonstrates the stability of a key sector of the EU economy against the background of strict monetary policy and a slowdown in the labor market. A meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled today at 14:15 GMT+2, at which it is expected that the regulator may take steps towards a softer monetary policy. Analysts foresee a possible rate cut of 25 basis points in response to deteriorating economic conditions tending to recession in some areas. During a subsequent press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde may also outline the potential for additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.Resistance levels: 1.0934, 1.1041.Support levels: 1.0815, 1.0735.USD/CHF: the risks associated with the liquidation of majority banks are outlinedDuring the Asian trading session, the USD/CHF currency pair shows a moderate decline, testing the level of 0.8910 after the previous growth provoked by the published positive economic statistics from the United States.To date, traders are analyzing unemployment data in Switzerland, where the seasonally adjusted rate increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, while excluding these fluctuations it remained at 2.3%. Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Zutter expressed the view that international organizations should carefully consider the potential risks associated with the liquidation of large banks. She cited the example of Credit Suisse Group AG, which on May 31 announced the completion of the merger process with UBS AG, ending its 168-year history. The Minister stressed that it is important that large banking institutions provide adequate financial support to their branches so that the capital of foreign subsidiaries is sufficient and can be used without risk to the financial well-being of the Swiss parent company during crisis periods.Resistance levels: 0.8935, 0.8964, 0.9000, 0.9037.Support levels: 0.8900, 0.8865, 0.8839, 0.8800.USD/TRY: Turkish inflation returned to peaks in November 2022The USD/TRY currency pair demonstrates changeable trading activity, stabilizing around the level of 32.2150. The market is in a state of expectation, as bidders are looking for new factors that can influence the policy of the US Federal Reserve on borrowing rates.The Turkish lira continues to be under pressure due to domestic economic problems. In May, the annual inflation index in Turkey reached the highest values in the last year and a half, reaching 75.45%. The most significant price increase over the year was recorded in the education sector (+104.8%), while in the clothing and footwear segment there was the least growth (+50.85%). Prices for residential real estate increased by 93.21%, for alcohol and tobacco — by 86.48%, and in the category of "hotels, cafes and restaurants" — by 92.94%. According to Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Shimshek, inflation was expected to peak in May. This month, the authorities expect a correction in inflation, which is facilitated by an increase in business activity due to the tourist season. The annual inflation rate is expected to decrease to less than 50.0% by the end of the third quarter, and in subsequent years it will fall to 33.2% and 21.3%, respectively.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.4500, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.USD/CAD: interest rate in Canada has been reduced to 4.75%The USD/CAD currency pair continues to fluctuate between 1.3725–1.2625, even despite the recent decision of the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates.The regulator lowered the key rate by 0.25 points to 4.75%, which was the first such decrease in the last four years and in line with analysts' forecasts. According to the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, the country's economy is on track to achieve the inflation target of 2.0%, based on a number of macroeconomic data. Macklem also pointed out that with the continued slowdown in inflation, additional reductions in the cost of loans may follow. Nevertheless, despite monetary measures, USD/CAD quotes reached the upper limit of the specified range, but could not overcome it due to subsequent unfavorable data from the United States. In particular, in May, the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (ISM) fell to 47.1 points, falling below expectations of 47.2 points, and the price index amounted to 58.1 points against the predicted 59.0. The indicator from S&P Global remained at 54.8 points, in line with expectations. In addition, data from ADP showed a decrease in private sector employment from 188.0 thousand to 152.0 thousand, which also turned out to be lower than preliminary estimates of 173.0 thousand.Resistance levels: 1.3725, 1.3775, 1.3830.Support levels: 1.3625, 1.3595, 1.3500.
Jun 06, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/EUR on Wednesday, June 5th
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/EUR on Wednesday, June 5th EUR/USD: euro is losing ground after the May statistics on the German labor marketThe EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, consolidating around the 1.0880 mark. Yesterday, the instrument showed a slight decrease, retreating from local highs on March 21, despite a limited amount of macroeconomic data from the eurozone and the United States. Investors drew attention to the increase in the number of unemployed in Germany in May from 11.0 thousand (revised from 10.0 thousand) to 25.0 thousand, while analysts predicted that the indicator would remain at the level of 10.0 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at 5.9%. According to the Federal Employment Agency, 702.0 thousand vacancies were opened in May, which is 65.0 thousand less than a year ago. At the same time, the shortage of qualified personnel remains in 183 out of 200 key professions. Experts fear that the problems in the German labor market may worsen in the medium term due to the deterioration of the demographic situation.Today, investors are focused on statistics on business activity in the services sector and industrial inflation in the eurozone. A meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be held on Thursday at 14:15 (GMT+2), from which analysts expect an interest rate cut of 25 basis points to 4.25%. At the same time, the regulator may announce more cautious further steps, given the ongoing inflationary pressure in some sectors of the region's economy.Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0930, 1.0964, 1.1000.Support levels: 1.0863, 1.0842, 1.0820, 1.0800.GBP/USD: rhetoric of the Fed and the Bank of England is reflected in the dynamics of the pairThe GBP/USD pair has been growing for the second month in a row, updating the March high of 1.2817.Earlier, investors feared that the US Federal Reserve would abandon monetary policy easing this year due to rising inflationary pressures in the first quarter. However, the latest macroeconomic data encouraged them: in April, the key core index of private consumption expenditures fell from 0.3% to 0.2%, job growth slowed to 8.059 million, and the May index of manufacturing activity fell from 49.2 to 48.7 points. As a result of weakening inflation and a possible economic downturn, officials may switch to a "dovish" course, and most experts expect the first rate cut in September and another before the end of the year.The Bank of England, which previously planned to reduce the cost of borrowing in the summer, may postpone the adjustment to the end of the year, as in April the consumer price index rose by 2.3% instead of the expected 2.1%, and the economy remains stable: in May, business activity indices continue to grow, albeit more slowly. Additionally, the situation is complicated by the parliamentary elections scheduled for July 4, so officials have taken a break and do not comment on further actions.Resistance levels: 1.2817, 1.2890, 1.3061.Support levels: 1.2695, 1.2573, 1.2490.NZD/USD: problem mortgages in New Zealand increased by 25% since the beginning of the yearThe NZD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, recovering from a recent correction attempt, which did not allow it to gain a foothold at local highs from March 8. Now the quotes are testing the level of 0.6185, and investors are waiting for the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Today at 14:15 (GMT+2), the May report from ADP on private sector employment will be released, and at the end of the week, the final data from the US Department of Labor will be released. It is expected that the number of employees will decrease from 192.0 thousand to 173.0 thousand. At 16:00 (GMT+2), statistics on the ISM business activity index in the service sector will be published, the projected growth of which from 49.4 to 50.5 points may affect investors' expectations regarding the easing of the Fed's monetary policy by the end of the year. The main scenario assumes an interest rate cut of 25 basis points with a probability of 51.0% in September.Craig Rennie, head of policy at the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions, noted that changing tax conditions could stimulate a decrease in demand in the economy, as high-income companies would not be able to distribute funds among shareholders. In his opinion, regular changes in duties will be more useful for the economy than adjusting the interest rate. He stressed that although the increase in the cost of borrowing has somewhat reduced demand, it has also contributed to the accumulation of savings by citizens in conditions of high inflation. This is confirmed by data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, according to which the volume of non-performing housing loans in April increased by 7.7% to $ 1.9 billion. Since the beginning of the year, this figure has increased by $ 384.0 million, or 25.3%, and over the past 12 months — by $ 796.0 million, or 72.0%.Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6230, 0.6250, 0.6300.Support levels: 0.6175, 0.6152, 0.6130, 0.6100.USD/JPY: data on salaries and business activity in Japan met with a neutral reaction from investorsAgainst the background of the weakening of the US dollar and positive Japanese statistics, the USD/JPY pair is correcting downwards, trading near the level of 155.58.The yen is correcting after strengthening at the beginning of the week, and reports on wages and business activity were perceived by investors neutrally: in April, the total income of employees increased by 2.1% after the previous 1.0%, and the average annual salary increased by 2.1% instead of the projected 1.7%. Overtime pay decreased by 0.6%, which is almost the same as last year's 0.5%. Thus, workers' incomes and salaries increased in the spring, supporting the local recovery. The index of business activity in the service sector decreased from 54.3 to 53.8 points, remaining in the "green" zone and is unlikely to significantly affect quotes. In this situation, the Bank of Japan may continue to tighten monetary policy, although an interest rate increase is still unlikely.Resistance levels: 156.40, 158.40.Support levels: 154.80, 152.80.
Jun 05, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD for Thursday, May 30, 2024
AUD/USD, currency, EUR/USD, currency, USD/JPY, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD for Thursday, May 30, 2024 EUR/USD: German inflation puts pressure on the euroAgainst the background of the strengthening of the US dollar, the EUR/USD pair shows a corrective trend, trading at 1.0795 under the influence of German macroeconomic data.In May, the consumer price index in Germany decreased by 0.1%, which was lower than the 0.2% growth forecast by analysts, as well as the 0.5% figure recorded earlier. Despite this, the annual rate increased from 2.2% to 2.4%, and the EU-harmonized index increased from 2.4% to 2.8%. Thus, the necessary reduction in inflation to start adjusting interest rates in the EU has not yet been observed. If inflation continues to rise in other countries, the risks of tightening monetary policy will increase significantly, which may lead to the formation of a new downward trend in the EUR/USD pair. Traders' attention was also attracted by a slight increase in the GfK Group consumer confidence index in June, which rose from -24.0 to -20.9 points, exceeding the forecast of -22.5 points.Resistance levels: 1.0820, 1.0920.Support levels: 1.0770, 1.0670.AUD/USD: inflation statistics in Australia exceeded forecastsThe AUD/USD pair shows mixed results, remaining near the 0.6600 mark and the minimum values from May 24. Investors are waiting for the publication of tomorrow's US macroeconomic statistics on inflation, which is expected to clarify the prospects for a possible interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in the second half of 2024. Earlier, analysts expected a rate cut in September or November, predicting at least two cuts of 25 basis points during 2024. However, experts now believe that the reduction will happen once in December. In addition, the consumer confidence index rose from 97.5 points to 102.0 points in May, despite the projected decline to 96.0 points, which may complicate the fight against inflation for the US Federal Reserve.Meanwhile, the Australian dollar barely reacted to Wednesday's published data. The consumer price index rose from 3.5% to 3.6% in April, although 3.4% was expected. Inflation in Australia has reached a five-month high, increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise rates again, given the significant deviation of the current consumer price index from the target level of 2.0%. Currently, most analysts believe that the regulator will not ease monetary policy this year, and some allow another increase in the interest rate.Resistance levels: 0.6622, 0.6646, 0.6667, 0.6700.Support levels: 0.6600, 0.6578, 0.6558, 0.6540.USD/JPY: Seiji Adachi clarified the condition for the interest rate correction in JapanThe USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, retreating from the local highs reached on May 1 and weakening the uncertain bullish trend observed since the beginning of the current trading week. The instrument is testing the 157.15 level for a downward breakdown, while investors are preparing for the publication of important macroeconomic statistics from the United States and Japan.Recall that on Friday, Japan will present May data on the consumer price index in the Tokyo region: analysts expect that the indicator, excluding prices for fresh food, will increase from 1.6% to 1.9%. Also at 01:50 (GMT+2), retail sales data for April will be published, where growth is projected from 1.2% to 1.9%, and industrial production, which is likely to slow from 4.4% to 0.9%. The day before, Seiji Adachi, a member of the board of the Bank of Japan, said that the regulator could raise interest rates if a sharp drop in the yen would lead to an increase in consumer prices or affect inflation expectations. Adachi also stressed that premature measures should be avoided so as not to increase pressure on the national economy, which underlines the importance of a weak yen in determining the timing of the next monetary policy adjustment.Resistance levels: 157.50, 157.98, 158.43, 159.30.Support levels: 157.00, 156.50, 156.00, 155.50.NZD/USD: the uptrend remains relevantThe NZD/USD pair dropped to 0.6095 amid unfavorable economic statistics from New Zealand.The business confidence index published by ANZ Group showed a value of 11.2 points in May, which was lower than the expected 15.0 points and the previous indicator of 14.9 points. Businesses continue to feel the impact of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's record high interest rate, which is at a 15-year high, which is holding back active investments. Representatives of the regulator have previously stressed the need to maintain a tight monetary policy in order to accelerate the achievement of inflation targets. In addition, in April, the number of building permits decreased by 1.9%, which was lower than the forecast of 1.5% and the previous value of -0.2%.Resistance levels: 0.6150, 0.6205, 0.6262.Support levels: 0.6070, 0.5992, 0.5981.
May 30, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/TRY and Silver for Thursday, May 23, 2024
EUR/USD, currency, USD/CAD, currency, USD/TRY, currency, Silver, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/TRY and Silver for Thursday, May 23, 2024 EUR/USD: downward trend may intensifyThe EUR/USD pair has shown continuous growth since the middle of last month, as investors hoped for an early adjustment of monetary policy in the United States. However, this week the pair reached the level of 1.0864 Murray [6/8], after which it began to adjust downwards.Today, the negative dynamics slowed down due to the publication of data on business activity in the eurozone. In May, the indices showed the highest growth rates for the current year: the index for the industrial sector rose from 45.7 to 47.4 points, the index for the service sector increased from 51.7 to 52.3 points, and the composite index reached 53.3 points. However, the long-term fundamentals remain unfavorable. Experts predict that the European Central Bank (ECB) will switch to monetary policy easing earlier than the US Federal Reserve System (Fed).Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0986, 1.1047.Support levels: 1.0780, 1.0620, 1.0559.USD/CAD: Canadian inflation at three-year lowThe USD/CAD pair demonstrates a multidirectional trading dynamics, holding near the 1.3685 mark, which is close to the local highs on May 9, which were updated the day before. On Wednesday, the instrument was supported by the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting on May 1.Investors continue to analyze the April statistics on inflation in Canada, published on Tuesday. The consumer price index decreased from 2.9% to 2.7% year-on-year and from 0.6% to 0.5% month-on-month. The base index also showed a decrease: from 2.0% to 1.6% in annual terms and from 0.5% to 0.2% on a monthly basis. According to Statistics Canada, the slowdown in overall inflation was caused by lower prices for food, services and durable goods. The decrease in the cost of motor fuel also contributed: excluding this factor, the annual consumer price index dropped to 2.5% from 2.8%. Thus, inflation approached the Bank of Canada's target level of 2.0%. In April, the governor of the regulator, Tiff Macklem, said that it was necessary to obtain confirmation of a steady easing of price pressure before starting to adjust the cost of borrowing. At the April meeting, the monetary authorities left the interest rate at 5.00%, the highest since 2001.Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3730, 1.3762, 1.3800.Support levels: 1.3675, 1.3650, 1.3616, 1.3580.USD/TRY: Turkey plans full regulation of cryptocurrency transactionsDuring the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair shows moderate growth, striving to break through the level of 32.2000, in the expectation that the current monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System will remain unchanged for a long time.The Turkish lira is under pressure due to the difficult economic situation in the country, where inflation exceeds 69.0%. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics (Turkstat), the consumer price index increased from 68.5% to 69.80% year-on-year, which is the highest value since November 2022. Despite this, the official authorities declare an increase in confidence in the national economy and hope for a gradual change in the negative trend.Meanwhile, the Justice and Development Party of Turkey has put forward a bill aimed at full control over transactions with digital assets, including taxation of their purchase and sale. The bill also provides rules for licensing trading platforms, exchanges and brokers, as well as regulating their relationships with customers. These measures are necessary to exit the "grey list" of the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF). In addition, the document assumes the participation of the Council for Scientific and Technological Research of Turkey in joint work, which contributes to the development of blockchain technologies and related software in the country.Resistance levels: 32.3000, 32.45000, 32.6000, 32.7500.Support levels: 32.1500, 32.0000, 31.8306, 31.6877.Silver market overviewSilver is showing a moderate decline, developing the bearish momentum that formed the day before. The quotes have retreated from the recent high at 32.50 and are testing the 30.40 mark for a downward breakdown. Traders are carefully assessing the likelihood of monetary policy easing by the world's leading central banks.Yesterday, the minutes of the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve System were published. As expected, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted a significant slowdown in the decline in inflation, which may take longer to reach the target levels of 2.0%. Some officials did not rule out the possibility of further tightening monetary policy if necessary. In addition, the April statistics on inflation in the UK attracted the attention of investors. The consumer price index decreased from 3.2% to 2.3% in annual terms, which turned out to be higher than the projected 2.1%, and on a monthly basis — from 0.6% to 0.3%, with expectations of 0.2%. The base rate decreased from 4.2% to 3.9%, while analysts had predicted 3.6%. Against this background, market participants reduced their expectations regarding a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England in June.Resistance levels: 30.50, 30.75, 31.13, 31.70.Support levels: 30.15, 29.84, 29.35, 29.00.
May 23, 2024 Read
Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and gold for Wednesday, May 22
EUR/USD, currency, GBP/USD, currency, NZD/USD, currency, Gold, mineral, Analytical Forex forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and gold for Wednesday, May 22 EUR/USD: the exchange rate tends to break out of the downward range of 1.0880–1.0560During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining near the level of 1.0850. Neutral macroeconomic data do not allow the euro to significantly strengthen its position.In April, the producer price index in Germany increased by 0.2%, as in the previous month, which was lower than the projected growth of 0.3%. This led to a decrease in the annual rate from -2.9% to -3.3%, against expectations of -3.2%. Such negative dynamics contribute to a further slowdown in consumer inflation, providing the European Central Bank (ECB) with an additional argument for lowering interest rates at the June meeting. The EU data also show diverse results: in March, the volume of construction decreased from 0.38% to 0.10%, while the labor cost index increased from 3.40% to 4.90% in the first quarter. The EU's trade balance increased from 22.8 billion euros to 24.1 billion euros in March.Resistance levels: 1.0885, 1.1010.Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0705.GBP/USD: annual UK inflation slowed to 2.3% in AprilThe GBP/USD pair is showing an upward trend, updating local highs since March 21. Investors are closely watching the UK's April inflation statistics. The consumer price index decreased from 3.2% to 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.1%, and from 0.6% to 0.3% month-on-month, which also exceeded the forecast of 0.2%. The producer price index, excluding seasonal fluctuations, increased from 0.7% to 1.1%, which is slightly lower than the projected 1.2%. These data may encourage the Bank of England to begin easing monetary policy this summer, as previously mentioned by Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the regulator, and Hugh Pill, chief economist.Yesterday, investors analyzed the May index of industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI), which fell from -23.0 to -33.0 points, against expectations of -20.0 points. This was the fastest decline since November, but many manufacturers expect the situation to improve in the summer months, while not predicting a significant price increase. In the near future, the minutes of the next hearing of the inflation report will be published in the UK, which will help to understand the reaction of officials to the latest price data and clarify the prospects for a possible interest rate cut in the coming months. With the opening of the American session, investors' attention will switch to April statistics on sales in the secondary housing market in the United States, where growth is expected from 4.19 million to 4.21 million after a previous decrease of 4.3%.Resistance levels: 1.2734, 1.2771, 1.2810, 1.2850.Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2568.NZD/USD: New Zealand currency shows growth againThe NZD/USD pair is showing active growth, recovering from the "bearish" sentiment prevailing at the beginning of this week: the instrument is testing the level of 0.6125 for an upward breakdown, which is facilitated by the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).As expected, the regulator kept the interest rate at 5.50% and positively assessed the effect of the measures already taken to combat high inflation. RBNZ representatives expressed confidence that the current restrictive policy will reduce inflation to the target range of 1.0–3.0% by the end of 2024. The accompanying statement noted that the slowdown in prices in the service sector is slower than expected, so the transition to "dovish" rhetoric is not advisable yet. The pressure on the labor market is gradually easing, which leads to an increase in unemployment and lower wages, which also helps to reduce inflationary risks.Despite the market reaction to the RBNZ meeting, many investors are in a hurry to take profits, closing some long positions, preferring to wait for today's publication of the minutes of the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve. These documents may clarify the prospects for an interest rate cut by the US regulator in the second half of 2024. The current main scenario assumes the beginning of monetary policy easing in September or November, and at least two reductions of 25 basis points each are expected by the end of 2024.Resistance levels: 0.6130, 0.6152, 0.6183, 0.6200.Support levels: 0.6100, 0.6082, 0.6047, 0.6030.Gold market overviewThe price of gold has been steadily growing for the fourth month in a row: on Monday, quotes updated annual highs around 2449.89, but then rolled back, and the current positive dynamics is restrained by comments from US Federal Reserve officials.Investors had hoped that the publication of April inflation data in the United States would prompt the regulator to start lowering interest rates in September, but recent statements by Fed representatives disappointed the market. Economists recognized the decrease in inflationary pressure as a positive factor, but noted that the April data was not enough to correct monetary policy. The chairman of the US Federal Reserve for Supervision, Michael Barra, stressed that the data at the beginning of the year were "disappointing", so there are no grounds for lowering interest rates yet. In the evening, investors are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee, which may shed light on the prospects for further actions by the regulator and cause serious fluctuations in the market.Resistance levels: 2437.50, 2500.00, 2562.50.Support levels: 2348.00, 2250.00, 2187.50.
May 22, 2024 Read
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