EUR/GBP: the euro is recovering after a decline at the beginning of the week
The EUR/GBP currency pair shows a slight increase, continuing the trend set by yesterday's "bullish" trend. The exchange rate is approaching the 0.8745 mark, trying to overcome it with an upward movement, supported by fresh inflation data from the UK.
In October, the UK consumer price index fell from 0.5% to 0.0%, being slightly below expectations at 0.1%. The annual index fell from 6.7% to 4.6%, while forecasts indicated a drop to 4.8%. The core inflation index also adjusted from 6.1% to 5.7%, with an estimated value of 5.8%. The retail price index showed a decrease of 0.2% after an increase of 0.5% in the previous month, and its annual value decreased from 8.9% to 6.1%, although analysts had expected 6.4%. These statistics, similar to the American ones, suggest that the Bank of England may soon abandon further tightening of monetary policy.
- Resistance levels: 0.8750, 0.8777, 0.8817, 0.8854.
- Support levels: 0.8732, 0.8710, 0.8686, 0.8669.
NZD/USD: The fall of the currency pair after an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the resistance level of 0.6045
On the eve of the session, the NZD/USD currency pair tried to overcome the resistance level of 0.6045, but failed to do so, followed by its decline against the background of disappointing economic data from New Zealand.
The October indicator of the service efficiency index dropped to 48.9 points compared to the previous value of 50.6 points, and the aggregate per capita income index decreased to 46.1 points from the previous 48.6 points. Food inflation fell to 6.3% in October, which is lower than the expected 7.4% and the previous 8.0%. In light of these statistics, representatives of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may decide not to raise interest rates at the upcoming meeting on November 29, putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar.
- Resistance levels: 0.6045, 0.6245.
- Support levels: 0.5865, 0.5790, 0.5750.
The precious metal remains unchanged, having stabilized near the level of 23.40. There is a neutral dynamics of the pair, due to the closure of some long-term positions against the background of economic statistics from the United States.
In October, the US consumer price index fell from 0.4% to 0.0%, with analysts' expectations of 0.1%, and its annual index decreased from 3.7% to 3.2%, which is slightly lower than the forecast of 3.3%. Such inflation data are regarded by investors as a likely signal for the end of the cycle of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Also, the producer price index fell by 0.5% compared with an increase of 0.4% in the previous month, while its annual indicator decreased from 2.2% to 1.3%, which is less than the expected 1.9%. Retail sales volumes decreased by 0.1% after an increase of 0.9% in September, contradicting forecasts of -0.3%. Today, investors will focus on the speeches of representatives of the US Federal Reserve, who can comment on the latest inflation statistics, and will also closely monitor data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits and industrial production volumes for October.
- Resistance levels: 23.60, 23.83, 24.00, 24.20.
- Support levels: 23.32, 23.00, 22.70, 22.46.
Crude Oil Market Analysis
During the Asian trading session, the price of Brent crude oil continues its corrective course, which began on Tuesday after the failure to hold the highs on November 7, and is currently trying to overcome the level of 80.40.
At yesterday's trading, investors focused on the indicator of the October producer price index in the United States, which fell from 0.4% to -0.5% on a monthly basis, and from 2.2% to 1.3% on an annual basis. This reinforced expectations of a slowdown in consumer price growth and, accordingly, the stabilization of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. There was also a decrease in retail sales by -0.1% compared to the previous 0.9%, against forecasts of -0.3%.
In addition, recently published data on the dynamics of commercial reserves of oil and petroleum products in the United States have put additional pressure on hydrocarbon quotes. According to a report by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), for the week ended November 10, inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels to 439.4 million barrels, exceeding analysts' expectations by 1.8 million barrels. At the same time, oil production in the United States remains at a record level of 13.2 million barrels per day. Gasoline reserves decreased by 1.5 million barrels, and diesel fuel — by 1.4 million barrels, reflecting high domestic demand for energy resources.
- Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.27, 83.12, 83.89.
- Support levels: 80.00, 79.12, 78.00, 77.00.