AUD/USD Trading forecasts and signals - page 2

AUD/USD analysis on March 31, 2025The Australian dollar continues to adjust within the downward trend, falling to the level of 0.6278. The main factor putting pressure on quotes was weak economic data for Australia, reflecting continued uncertainty about inflation and credit activity.The report published by the Melbourne Institute for March indicated an increase in expected inflation of 0.7% against the previous decrease of 0.2%. This indicator often correlates with the official consumer price index, which increases market participants' concerns about inflationary pressures. Additional support for this scenario is provided by the report of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), according to which mortgage lending remained at 0.4% in February, while the total volume of loans to the private sector increased by 0.5%.The RBA is expected to meet tomorrow at 05:30 (GMT+2), at which the regulator is likely to leave the interest rate unchanged at 4.10%. However, the rhetoric of the Central Bank's representatives will be crucial: if the statement contains cautious assessments of the prospects for monetary policy, the AUD rate may continue to decline. At the same time, some analysts do not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in June or July, given the stabilization of economic activity and the gradual weakening of inflation.The US dollar index remains under pressure and is currently consolidating around 103.50. The greenback ended last week in the negative zone, developing a downward trend that has been observed since the beginning of the year.The current weakening of the dollar is largely due to disappointing data from the University of Michigan. The consumer expectations index in March decreased from 64.0 to 52.6 points, which is the lowest value since July 2022. The consumer sentiment index also fell from 64.7 to 57.0 points and reached a 29-month low.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is approaching the lower boundary of the ascending channel with a range of 0.6480–0.6250.Technical indicators confirm the strengthening of the downward momentum:– The moving averages on the Alligator indicator are directed downwards, increasing the discrepancy with the signal line.– The Awesome Oscillator (AO) histogram shows descending bars in the negative zone, reinforcing the sell signal.Trading recommendations– Selling: It is possible to open short positions after breaking through the 0.6250 level and consolidating below it, with a target at 0.6140. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6320.– Purchases: they will be relevant in case of growth and consolidation of the price above 0.6310, with a target of 0.6410. The protective stop is 0.6250.Thus, the short-term outlook for AUD/USD remains bearish, and further developments will depend on the outcome of the RBA meeting and the general sentiment towards the US ...

Eurozone: Focus on inflation in GermanyToday, the main focus of investors and analysts is on German inflation data for March, which anticipates the overall figures for the eurozone expected tomorrow.Earlier, inflation in France and Spain was below forecasts, which is a positive signal for the European Central Bank (ECB). It will be important to see if the same trend is reflected in Germany.According to forecasts, the eurozone HICP index will decrease from 2.3% YoY to 2.1% YoY, mainly due to lower inflation in the energy and services sectors.China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI – is growth possible?In China, the Industrial Business Activity Index (Caixin PMI) is expected to be published today. The consensus forecast assumes a slight decrease from 50.8 to 50.6, but there is a possibility of strengthening the result. This is due to improved data on other indicators, such as the Yicai index and rising metal prices in March.Denmark: Correction of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024Revised Danish GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be published today. The preliminary report showed solid economic growth of 1.6% QoQ. However, quick estimates are always accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty, so it is important to understand how significant the possible adjustments will be.Sweden: Completion of wage negotiationsMajor industry salary negotiations are due to expire in Sweden today, which creates additional pressure on the negotiating parties. Initially, it was proposed to conclude a three-year agreement at the level of 7.7%, which is lower than expected and may indicate the risks of a downward revision of wage forecasts.Australia: Reserve Bank to keep interest rate at 4.10%The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to leave its key interest rate at 4.10% tomorrow morning, in line with market consensus. At the last meeting, the RBA began a cycle of rate cuts, but did not give clear signals of further easing. Currently, the markets forecast 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, but the probability of maintaining the current level tomorrow is estimated at 90%.Japan: Expectations for the Tankan report and the policy of the Bank of JapanTonight, the Bank of Japan will publish the quarterly Tankan business survey. The PMI indexes indicate steady growth in the first quarter, but the significant decline in March raises questions. The Tankan data is particularly important in the context of the Bank of Japan's future policy: positive results may strengthen expectations for further rate hikes. The spring wage negotiations also confirm the trend towards tightening monetary policy.Main focus of the week: trade duties and their impactThis week, the markets are monitoring the development of the situation around tariffs, especially from the United States. New widespread tariffs are expected to be announced on Wednesday, as well as possible retaliatory measures from other countries. At night, information was received that the United States could impose restrictions against "all countries," which contradicts earlier statements. In addition, the possibility of new sanctions against Russian oil buyers is being discussed.The final event of the week will be the US employment report for March, which is scheduled to be published on Friday.Macroeconomic events and market newsUSA: The core PCE index for February rose by 0.4% mom (consensus: 0.3% mom), which is higher than expected. At the same time, the overall PCE index showed an increase of 0.3% mom, in line with forecasts. The real volume of consumer spending increased by only 0.1% mom, which indicates a restrained mood among consumers.China: The official composite PMI rose to 51.4 in March from 51.1 in February. The index in the non–manufacturing sector rose to 50.8 (from 50.4), reflecting a recovery in the services sector, while the manufacturing PMI reached an annual maximum of 50.5.Norway: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.0% in March, as predicted. The number of new vacancies decreased slightly, which may indicate a moderate weakening in demand for labor. At the same time, the growth of retail sales in the last three months (by 1.3%) confirms the positive trends in consumption.Japan: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's March meeting showed that participants recognize the importance of recent wage increases as a factor for further rate increases. However, concern was expressed about the weakness of investment among small and medium-sized enterprises, which casts doubt on the sustainability of current wage growth.Geopolitical factors: trade conflicts and sanctionsUS President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin and threatened to impose tariffs from 25% to 50% on imports from countries that buy Russian oil if Moscow does not take steps to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. This statement followed Putin's words about the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. In the coming days, Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Putin, which may determine the further vector of the situation.Stock markets: going into defensive assetsGlobal stock indexes closed in the "red zone" on Friday as investors reduced their risk appetite ahead of the weekend.US index results on Friday:• Dow Jones: -1,7%• S&P 500: -2,0%• Nasdaq: -2,7%• Russell 2000: -2,1%The negative sentiment continues in Asia, where the Japanese yen acts as a defensive asset. The Japanese Nikkei index has declined by more than 4% at the time of writing, and the exchanges of exporting countries are also showing a significant drop.Stock index futures in Europe and the United States point to continued declines, along with falling yields at the long end of the U.S. Treasury bond curve.Dynamics of the currency and debt marketsU.S. government bonds ended last week higher as PCE data, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and threats of new tariffs from Trump sparked caution in the markets. Stocks in the United States have fallen sharply, especially in the technology sector.Currency movements• The JPY strengthened against the major G10 currencies• EUR/USD rose above 1.1080• EUR/NOK rose to 11.35• EUR/SEK ended the week at 11.84This week, the key factor remains the issue of new tariffs, which will determine the dynamics of global ...

AUD/USD analysis on March 24, 2025The AUD/USD pair continues to adjust in a downtrend, around the level of 0.6277. Despite the positive business activity data from S&P Global for March, last week. The Australian dollar lost more than 130 pointsThe index of business activity in the Australian manufacturing sector rose from 50.4 to 52.6 points, and reached its highest level in the last 29 months. In the service sector, the index increased from 50.8 to 51.2 points, which contributed to the growth of the composite index from 50.6 to 51.3 points, a record high since September. These data point to an economic recovery, despite the high interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).However, the February labor market data is putting pressure on the Australian currency. Unemployment remained at 4.1%, but total employment fell by 52.8 thousand instead of the expected increase of 30.8 thousand. Full-time employment also decreased by 35.7 thousand. These data may push the RBA to more dovish rhetoric in the near future.The US dollar index recovered slightly to 103.7 points. Last week, for the first time this month, the dollar ended the session in the "green" zone.The US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged, but announced plans for at least two rate cuts of 0.25% in the future. However, many experts doubt this, given the uncertainty in the market and lowered forecasts for the economy and inflation in 2025.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayAUD/USD on the Daily is approaching the support line of the ascending channel, the boundaries of which are in the range of 0.6480–0.6250.The Alligator indicator, as well as the Awesome Oscillator (AO), strengthen the sell signals.Trading recommendations- It is advisable to consider short positions after the price drops and fixes below the level of 0.6250. The nearest target will be 0.6130. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6320.- Purchases are possible when the price rises and fixes above the level of 0.6310 with a target of 0.6410. The stop loss is ...

During Thursday's Asian session, AUD/USD shows an active decline, developing the corrective impulse formed on Tuesday. Quotes are testing the 0.6340 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants are evaluating the February Australian labor market data released earlier.The seasonally adjusted employment rate decreased by 52.8 thousand after rising by 30.5 thousand in the previous month, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecast of 30.0 thousand. The indicator of full—time employment decreased by 35.7 thousand (after an increase of 36.9 thousand), and part-time employment - by 17.0 thousand (after a decrease of 6.5 thousand). The share of the labor force in the total population decreased from 67.2% to 66.8%, which is also lower than expected at 67.3%.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its February meeting. Currently, the markets estimate the probability of continued dovish rhetoric at the May meeting and a third rate cut by the end of the year at 65%. However, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said that the regulator remains more cautious than the market regarding further monetary policy easing.Results of the US Federal Reserve meetingInvestors are analyzing the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, published the day before. As expected, the regulator kept the key rate at 4.50%, but adjusted its forecasts for the current year and the near future. The median rate forecast for the current year has been reduced from 4.40% to 3.90%, for 2026 from 3.90% to 3.40%, and for 2027 from 3.40% to 3.10%.The Fed also raised expectations for inflation and unemployment for the current year, but lowered its forecast for GDP growth. Inflation in 2025 is expected to reach 2.7% against the previous estimate of 2.5%. The unemployment rate may reach 4.4%, which is 0.1% higher than the previous forecast. The growth rate of the US economy in 2025 has been revised from 2.1% to 1.7%.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed that there is no need to rush to adjust monetary policy, as the economy remains strong. However, uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts has increased due to the US administration's trade policy, the effects of which on inflation are still difficult to assess.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart (D1), the Bollinger indicator indicates a flat trend. The MACD indicator turned down, preparing to form a sell signal. Stochastic is also showing a decline.Trading recommendations- We will consider sales after the breakdown down to the level of 0.6319. The nearest target will be 0.6250. We will place the stop loss at 0.6350.- Purchases will become possible when growth resumes and the level of 0.6373 breaks up with a target of 0.6450. The stop loss is ...

AUD/USD analysis on March 18, 2025On Tuesday, AUD/USD continues its upward movement and is trading at 0.6374. The Australian dollar is recovering after a short-term decline caused by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting last week. The weakening of the US dollar contributes to the formation of a stable upward trend, which allows quotes to stay above the interim annual maximum of 0.6400.Reserve Bank of Australia officials stress the need for restraint in further easing monetary policy. They intend to carefully assess macroeconomic indicators and the impact of the recent interest rate cut by 25 basis points.Meanwhile, the tourism sector is showing signs of recovery. In January, the volume of international trips reached a multi-year record: the number of short-term arrivals increased by 17.6% year-on-year, reaching 710,040 thousand. The short-term profitability of residents increased by 10.9%, amounting to 1.544 million Australian dollars. The total number of arrivals increased by 12.3% to 2.383 million, and departures abroad — by 16.3% to 2.031 million.The US dollar index is strengthening slightly and recovered to 103.10. The instability of the dollar is related to macroeconomic reports that did not meet market expectations. For example, retail sales in February increased from -1.2% to 0.2%, which was lower than the forecast of 0.6%. The core retail sales index increased from -0.6% to 0.3%, in line with expectations, but without having a significant impact on the market.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is approaching the resistance line of the ascending channel, the boundaries of which are in the range of 0.6500–0.6100.Technical indicators reinforce buy signals. The averages on the alligator indicator are pointing upwards. The awesome oscillator (AO) indicator has formed several ascending bars in the positive zone, which confirms the potential for further growth.Trading recommendations- Long positions: can be considered after the price rises and fixes above the level of 0.6400 with a target of 0.6530. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6320.- Sales are relevant after the price drops and fixes below the level of 0.6350 with a target of 0.6200. The stop loss is ...

EUR/GBP: the pair ends the trading week in the red zoneThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/GBP pair during morning trading, continuing the steady downward trend that began on Wednesday, when quotes finally moved away from the local peaks reached on January 24.Despite the steady "bearish" mood, the macroeconomic statistics of the eurozone remains quite stable and provides some support to the euro. In annual terms, industrial production showed zero dynamics after a 1.5% decline in December, exceeding analysts' expectations of -0.9%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 0.8% after a decrease of 0.4% a month earlier, which also exceeded forecasts of 0.6%. A particularly noticeable increase was recorded in Germany, where production increased by 2.0% in January after a 1.5% decline in December.However, the pressure on the single currency is increasing due to doubts about the stability of the region's economy. Earlier, the euro received support against the background of announced large-scale investments in the rearmament of Europe and the creation of a 500.0 billion euro fund in Germany for infrastructure and defense projects. However, not all EU countries approve of such a significant increase in military spending, which may weaken the positive effect of these initiatives. An additional risk for the euro remains foreign trade factors: investors are concerned about the prospects of new US duties imposed by the administration of Donald Trump, as well as a possible escalation of trade disputes between the US and the EU.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419, 0.8437.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8355, 0.8340, 0.8326.USD/CAD: dollar maintains weak upward momentumThe US dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the USD/CAD pair during morning trading, consolidating at 1.4433: previously, the instrument's active growth was due to the publication of strong data on the US labor market.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which decided on March 12 to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the lowest level since September 2022. The regulator's officials noted that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, but warned of a possible slowdown amid global trade tensions caused by new tariff restrictions from the United States.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), statistics on manufacturing sales in Canada will be released: analysts expect an increase of 2.0% after an increase of 0.3% a month earlier, and wholesale sales may recover by 1.9% after a decrease of 0.2% in December.Resistance levels: 1.4451, 1.4472, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.USD/TRY: dollar reaches historic peak againThe USD/TRY exchange rate is showing mixed dynamics near the 36.6790 mark, as market participants monitor US trade policy, negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the latest data on inflation in the United States.The February statistics reflected a slowdown in the core consumer price index from 3.3% to 3.1% year-on-year, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 3.2%, as well as a weakening of the monthly index from 0.4% to 0.2%. Inflation in the manufacturing sector also decreased: the core producer price index dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%, and the overall indicator dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%, which increased expectations of an early easing of the Fed's policy, although the rate is likely to remain unchanged until June.The Central Bank of Turkey, for its part, continues to adjust monetary policy to reduce inflationary pressure: in March, the regulator lowered the rate from 45.00% to 42.50%, hoping to achieve a reduction in inflation to 24.00% by the end of the year. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics, consumer prices have already slowed from 42.12% to 39.05% in February, which confirms the trend towards gradual stabilization.Resistance levels: 36.7100, 36.7886, 36.8500, 36.9000.Support levels: 36.6500, 36.6000, 36.5406, 36.5000.AUD/USD: the pair is consolidating without an obvious trendAgainst the background of weak volatility of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, trading around 0.6290 as part of an upward correction.The Australian currency remains under pressure, but positive data from the real estate market temporarily supports its position. In January, the total number of approved construction permits increased by 6.3% to 16,597 thousand in monthly terms and by 21.7% year-on-year. In the private sector, the number of new homes increased by 1.1% to 9,042 thousand on a monthly basis and by 8.9% over the year, while the number of private buildings not related to residential real estate increased by 12.7% to 7,213 thousand per month and by 41.6% per year. The cost of the entire development increased by 4.5%, reaching 9.04 billion Australian dollars, but the non-residential segment showed a decrease of 20.7% to 5.69 billion Australian dollars.Support levels: 0.6260, 0.6140.Resistance levels: 0.6320, ...

EUR/USD: technical analysis indicates continued growthThe EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, trading near the 1.0902 mark against the background of the weakening of the US dollar. Investors reacted positively to the results of the meeting between representatives of the United States and Ukraine, seeing them as a possible step towards resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but macroeconomic statistics turned out to be ambiguous and could not become a strong driver of price growth.Thus, German imports in January showed a slowdown from 1.6% to 1.2%, while exports moved to negative dynamics, falling from 2.5% to -2.5%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 20.7 billion euros to 16.0 billion euros. At the same time, industrial production accelerated from -1.5% to 2.0% in monthly terms and from -2.26% to -1.49% in annual terms over the same period. The head of the German Federal Bank, Joachim Nagel, expressed support for the initiatives of the future government aimed at easing budget constraints and creating a special fund in the amount of 500.0 billion euros to finance defense and infrastructure projects. At the same time, he stressed that for Germany's long-term economic growth, it is necessary to focus on increasing the supply of labor, reforming the energy sector, reducing bureaucratic barriers and reducing tax pressure on businesses.Resistance levels: 1.0950, 1.1110.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0680.AUD/USD: Australian dollar is holding at 0.6270After rising by 1.44% over the past week, the AUD/USD pair is consolidating at the 0.6270 support, awaiting the February US inflation data, which will be released today at 14:30 (GMT+2).Forecasts suggest that the consumer price index will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, which may increase pressure on the US dollar if the Fed signals a softer monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at the level of March 19 is 97.0%, and its reduction by 25 basis points in May is 40.9%.On Thursday at 02:30 (GMT+2), Australia will publish data on building permits for January: an increase of 6.3% on a monthly basis is expected, which may support the Australian currency. If the indicator is confirmed, it will be a signal of economic recovery after a prolonged recession since the end of 2023.Resistance levels: 0.6370, 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6270, 0.6147.Silver market analysisAfter a short-term consolidation below the 32.00 mark, the XAG/USD pair resumed its growth, which is due to the unique structure of demand for silver. Unlike platinum and palladium, this metal is in demand both in industry and among investors, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in market sentiment. An additional support factor was the growth in the number of Silver Institute participants: seven new companies joined the organization in 2024, and three more in the first two months of 2025, including Skeena Gold & Silver, Silver Tiger Metals, and TCA S.p.A.Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) confirms the increased interest in silver. In recent reporting periods, the number of manufacturers' long positions increased by 0.453 thousand, while sellers reduced volumes by 8,192 thousand contracts. The balance in the segment of positions secured by real capital remains on the side of the bulls — 47,823 thousand against 13,620 thousand for the bears, which indicates a high level of confidence in the asset.Resistance levels: 33.10, 34.80.Support levels: 32.30, 30.80.Crude Oil market analysisIn the morning trading, WTI Crude Oil continues to strengthen, developing the growth momentum that was formed the day before, and is testing the 66.30 level for an upward breakout. However, traders remain cautious, preferring to wait for the publication of US inflation data at 14:30 (GMT+2), which may affect the dynamics of quotations.According to preliminary forecasts, the core consumer price index for February will slow down to 3.2% in annual terms (against 3.3% earlier) and 0.3% on a monthly basis (from 0.4%), while the overall index will decrease from 3.0% to 2.9% and from 0.5% to 0.3%, respectively. Nevertheless, the dollar's reaction may be restrained, as investors are more focused on the trade policy of the Donald Trump administration. This month, 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% tariffs on a number of Chinese goods, have already entered into force, and new restrictions on steel and aluminum supplies to the United States are expected in the near future.Additional pressure on the market was exerted by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed an increase in oil reserves by 4.247 million barrels for the week of March 7 after a previous decrease of 1.455 million barrels, while experts predicted an increase of only 2.1 million barrels. At 15:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released, which, according to forecasts, will also reflect an increase in reserves by 2.1 million barrels after a previous increase of 3.614 million barrels. Additionally, the agency adjusted the forecast of oil production in 2025, increasing it by 20 thousand. barrels per day — up to 13.61 million barrels.Resistance levels: 67.00, 67.50, 68.25, 69.00.Support levels: 66.00, 64.96, 64.00, ...

AUD/USD showed a moderate decline during Tuesday's Asian session, developing an uncertain "bearish" trend that began to form at the end of last week. Quotes are testing the 0.6260 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants expect new catalysts for further movement. The pair's growth potential is limited due to uncertainty in US trade policy, which reduces interest in risky assets, including the Australian dollar.China, Australia's largest trading partner, has imposed "mirror" duties on some American agricultural products in response to the increase in US tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 20%. Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), noted that global trade uncertainty has reached a 50-year high. This may force companies and households to postpone investments and planning, which will negatively affect economic growth.Data on consumer inflation in the United States will be published tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2). The annual rate is expected to decrease from 3.0% to 2.9%, and the monthly rate from 0.5% to 0.3%. The base index, which excludes food and energy resources, may also drop from 3.3% to 3.2% on an annual basis and from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis. This may strengthen expectations of further easing of the Fed's monetary policy. However, markets fear that an escalation of trade wars could lead to an acceleration of inflation in the future. In particular, the introduction of new tariffs on goods from the EU, as well as on steel and aluminum imports to the United States, is not excluded.The recently released data from Australia did not provide significant support to the Australian dollar. The Westpac consumer confidence index rose from 0.1% to 4.0% in March, while the National Australia Bank's business conditions index increased from 3.0 to 4.0 points in February. However, the business confidence index decreased from 5.0 to -1.0 points, indicating a deterioration in business sentiment.AUD/USD Technical Analysis for todayAccording to the Daily, the Bollinger indicator shows a moderate decline, while the price range is narrowing, reflecting the mixed nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is declining, maintaining a weak sell signal. Stochastic also shows a decrease, being in the middle of the working area.Trading recommendations- Selling deals after the breakdown of the 0.6250 level down with a target of 0.6200. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6274.- Purchases will be relevant in case of a rebound from the 0.6250 level and an upward breakdown of the 0.6274 level. The target will be 0.6330. In this case, the stop loss should be placed at ...

AUD/USD ("Aussie") is a currency pair popular among traders, consisting of the Australian and American dollars.The base currency in this combination is AUD, that is, when buying a pair, you need to pay US dollars. We will talk about the specifics of working with this financial instrument today.AUD/USD is the sixth most popular quote to date. Up to 5% of transactions carried out on the international market are connected with the Australian dollar. There are a number of advantages that make AUD as interesting as possible for financial market players.Firstly, it is the stability of the political situation in the country, the geographical location of which makes its economy as protected as possible from external negative influences such as the tense international situation. The Australian dollar is quite stable relative to speculative operations.Secondly, the current strategy of the Bank of Australia, which has been keeping the interest rate stable for more than a decade and a half, is a plus. Thanks to this, investors can earn both by investing in long-term deposits and by playing on the carry trade.AUD is often called an agricultural and raw material currency. The first is explained by the high dependence of the country's economy on the volume of harvest and factors that can affect it. The title of "raw currency" is due to the fact that the local budget is quite seriously focused on the income received from the sale of gold. Thus, the exchange rate of the local currency is closely related to the dynamics of prices for this precious metal.Factors influencing the AUDUSD rate and what quotes depend onThe interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia has the greatest impact on the value of the Australian currency. Decisions are made by the monetary policy committee within the framework of the meeting of the central bank of this country. The committee includes the head of the RBA, a representative of the Ministry of Finance, as well as 6 representatives appointed by the Australian government.Naturally, the trader is not concerned about the rate itself, but about its dynamics and the possibility of change.If the market expects it to rise, the Australian dollar will be in high demand.Accordingly, if it is assumed that the RBA will cut the interest rate, the Australian dollar will decline.You can follow the news of the Australian Bank on its official website: http://www.rba.gov.au/Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewHow can traders use this information? The RBA meetings are held every month on a strictly defined date and time. Knowing in advance that such an event is planned for the week, a trader can analyze the information and determine what the market expectations are. In addition, you can open a deal after the bid is announced and catch the trend.Another determining factor is inflation. Its dynamics may also have an impact on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar. How does this affect the market? The fact is that the RBA considers the inflation rate of 2-3% as a target. Any value above this indicator may lead to consideration of the possibility of tightening monetary policy (an increase in the interest rate).Accordingly, if inflation statistics are published (retail price index), and the result turns out to be higher than 3%, for example, this may lead to a rise in the price of the Australian dollar, since the market in this case believes that the RBA will take restraining measures, which are expressed, for example, in an increase in the interest rate.If the retail price index turns out to be below the target levels (or significantly lower), the Australian dollar may fall in price, as the market will consider such statistics as a signal for the RBA to take softer actions to stimulate domestic consumer prices.Economic growth rates (GDP dynamics) play an important role in the formation of the Australian dollar. After all, the faster the economy grows, the more funds are invested in various assets. Accordingly, there is an increase in demand for the currency. Another important point is that faster economic growth leads to the fact that the state (in this case, Australia) stops stimulating the economy through a lower rate.The AUD USD currency pair, however, this indicator is lagging and is published in the economic calendar once a quarter. Therefore, traders pay attention to earlier statistics on business activity. It also reflects the situation in the economy, and the dynamics of business activity can cause significant fluctuations in the market.The situation on the labor market also has an impact on the Australian dollar, although indirectly. An increase in unemployment leads to a drop in household incomes and a decrease in domestic consumption. It may also indicate significant problems in the country's economy and a decline in business activity. Accordingly, the government and the RBA may decide on measures to stimulate the economy.If unemployment decreases, this indicates positive trends in the economy and may lead to an increase in the Australian dollar, all other things being equal.News analysisTypes of AUD/USD news can be divided into three categories:Economic. First of all, of course, the events taking place in Australia and the USA are taken into account. If there are serious differences between the predicted and published indicator, we should expect serious market fluctuations.Financial. It evaluates inflation rates, currency interventions, interest rates, etc.Weather conditions. As mentioned above, the Australian dollar exchange rate is closely related to crop prices. Information about possible natural disasters (hurricanes, droughts, etc.) signals a decrease in AUD.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayCommodities and other external factorsThe AUDUSD rate is affected by the situation on the raw materials market. Australia is an exporter of gold, iron ores, gas, oil, and coal. The economy of this country is very dependent on the export of raw materials. Therefore, its prices significantly affect the value of the Australian dollar. Approximately the same situation is observed in Canada and Russia, where the local currency depends on oil prices.Another important external factor is the situation of trading partners. For Australia, it's China and Japan. If positive news comes from these countries, it can have a positive effect on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar.AUDUSD growth is also possible when investors are in search of a so-called currency haven. When the markets are restless, players very often buy either gold (which leads to an increase in the Australian dollar), or the Australian dollar itself.Why is this currency in demand in such situations? The fact is that Australia has a ratio of public debt to GDP of less than 50%.All of the above factors have a serious impact on the Australian dollar. But you can trade it even without knowledge in the field of fundamental analysis. It is enough just to study the technical method of forecasting. There are a lot of strategies that can bring a good profit.The Australian dollar, like many other currencies, is predictable, both in terms of graphical patterns and in terms of various trend and oscillatory indicators.Trading on AUD USDAs already mentioned, the AUDUSD quote displays the value of the Australian dollar relative to the American one.The "Aussie" item is equal to the lot multiplied by the minimum change in the quote. For one lot, the item will be ten USD = 100,000 x 0.0001. In the case of a multiple decrease or increase in the lot, it will change accordingly.Fluctuations of the currency pair during the day can reach 100 points, as a result of which even traders with modest financial capabilities get the opportunity to earn seriously. Spreads are usually small here, so you can play both on long-term and short-term periods.The fact is that it is in the morning that the Australian and Asian exchanges begin to work. Historical extremes and support/resistance levels are easily tracked on the AUD/USD chart, and graphic figures (triangles, pennants, etc.) are often observed. Another distinctive feature of this currency pair is its high susceptibility to news.Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewFeatures of the currency pairThe Australian dollar has a free exchange rate that is not pegged to USD. The following pairs have the greatest impact on quotes: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, and USD/JPY.The most effective means of trading AUD/USD are traditional trend-following strategies.It is believed that the movements here are more straightforward than, for example, on EUR/ USD. Both pairs have an average volatility of 70-80 points during the day. However, when trading EUR/USD, it increases sharply around 12 o'clock GMT, whereas AUD/USD is distributed relatively evenly. This makes it easier to work with the Australian dollar, so this currency pair is perhaps even more suitable for beginners.It is widely believed that the AUD/USD rate can be considered almost a "twin" of NZD/USD. The logic is clear enough. New Zealand has almost all the advantages of Australia, with one exception – the latter's economy is more stable and developed. If we talk about some close similarity of the "Aussie" with another currency pair, it is AUD/CAD (Australian/Canadian dollar).Separately, it is worth noting the presence of a positive correlation with the gold chart.Trends here also coincide quite often:Gold – Red Price LineAUDUSD is a currency pair that can be recommended to all lovers of long-term trading. "Long" strategies are favored by the stability of the economies of both its participants. A relatively low spread makes it possible to trade on short-term periods.Given the fact that the Australian dollar acts as the base currency, special attention should be paid to news related to this country. The AUD USD exchange rate is largely determined by the consumption of commodities, the main buyer of which is China. Thus, it makes sense to closely monitor what is happening with the economy of China.Working with this financial instrument requires a thorough technical and news analysis. For fans of multi-currency strategies, it makes sense to additionally pay attention to the charts of gold, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD and ...