AUD/USD Trading forecasts and signals - page 2

AUD/USD analysis on March 24, 2025The AUD/USD pair continues to adjust in a downtrend, around the level of 0.6277. Despite the positive business activity data from S&P Global for March, last week. The Australian dollar lost more than 130 pointsThe index of business activity in the Australian manufacturing sector rose from 50.4 to 52.6 points, and reached its highest level in the last 29 months. In the service sector, the index increased from 50.8 to 51.2 points, which contributed to the growth of the composite index from 50.6 to 51.3 points, a record high since September. These data point to an economic recovery, despite the high interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).However, the February labor market data is putting pressure on the Australian currency. Unemployment remained at 4.1%, but total employment fell by 52.8 thousand instead of the expected increase of 30.8 thousand. Full-time employment also decreased by 35.7 thousand. These data may push the RBA to more dovish rhetoric in the near future.The US dollar index recovered slightly to 103.7 points. Last week, for the first time this month, the dollar ended the session in the "green" zone.The US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged, but announced plans for at least two rate cuts of 0.25% in the future. However, many experts doubt this, given the uncertainty in the market and lowered forecasts for the economy and inflation in 2025.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayAUD/USD on the Daily is approaching the support line of the ascending channel, the boundaries of which are in the range of 0.6480–0.6250.The Alligator indicator, as well as the Awesome Oscillator (AO), strengthen the sell signals.Trading recommendations- It is advisable to consider short positions after the price drops and fixes below the level of 0.6250. The nearest target will be 0.6130. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6320.- Purchases are possible when the price rises and fixes above the level of 0.6310 with a target of 0.6410. The stop loss is ...

During Thursday's Asian session, AUD/USD shows an active decline, developing the corrective impulse formed on Tuesday. Quotes are testing the 0.6340 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants are evaluating the February Australian labor market data released earlier.The seasonally adjusted employment rate decreased by 52.8 thousand after rising by 30.5 thousand in the previous month, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecast of 30.0 thousand. The indicator of full—time employment decreased by 35.7 thousand (after an increase of 36.9 thousand), and part-time employment - by 17.0 thousand (after a decrease of 6.5 thousand). The share of the labor force in the total population decreased from 67.2% to 66.8%, which is also lower than expected at 67.3%.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its February meeting. Currently, the markets estimate the probability of continued dovish rhetoric at the May meeting and a third rate cut by the end of the year at 65%. However, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said that the regulator remains more cautious than the market regarding further monetary policy easing.Results of the US Federal Reserve meetingInvestors are analyzing the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, published the day before. As expected, the regulator kept the key rate at 4.50%, but adjusted its forecasts for the current year and the near future. The median rate forecast for the current year has been reduced from 4.40% to 3.90%, for 2026 from 3.90% to 3.40%, and for 2027 from 3.40% to 3.10%.The Fed also raised expectations for inflation and unemployment for the current year, but lowered its forecast for GDP growth. Inflation in 2025 is expected to reach 2.7% against the previous estimate of 2.5%. The unemployment rate may reach 4.4%, which is 0.1% higher than the previous forecast. The growth rate of the US economy in 2025 has been revised from 2.1% to 1.7%.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed that there is no need to rush to adjust monetary policy, as the economy remains strong. However, uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts has increased due to the US administration's trade policy, the effects of which on inflation are still difficult to assess.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart (D1), the Bollinger indicator indicates a flat trend. The MACD indicator turned down, preparing to form a sell signal. Stochastic is also showing a decline.Trading recommendations- We will consider sales after the breakdown down to the level of 0.6319. The nearest target will be 0.6250. We will place the stop loss at 0.6350.- Purchases will become possible when growth resumes and the level of 0.6373 breaks up with a target of 0.6450. The stop loss is ...

AUD/USD analysis on March 18, 2025On Tuesday, AUD/USD continues its upward movement and is trading at 0.6374. The Australian dollar is recovering after a short-term decline caused by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting last week. The weakening of the US dollar contributes to the formation of a stable upward trend, which allows quotes to stay above the interim annual maximum of 0.6400.Reserve Bank of Australia officials stress the need for restraint in further easing monetary policy. They intend to carefully assess macroeconomic indicators and the impact of the recent interest rate cut by 25 basis points.Meanwhile, the tourism sector is showing signs of recovery. In January, the volume of international trips reached a multi-year record: the number of short-term arrivals increased by 17.6% year-on-year, reaching 710,040 thousand. The short-term profitability of residents increased by 10.9%, amounting to 1.544 million Australian dollars. The total number of arrivals increased by 12.3% to 2.383 million, and departures abroad — by 16.3% to 2.031 million.The US dollar index is strengthening slightly and recovered to 103.10. The instability of the dollar is related to macroeconomic reports that did not meet market expectations. For example, retail sales in February increased from -1.2% to 0.2%, which was lower than the forecast of 0.6%. The core retail sales index increased from -0.6% to 0.3%, in line with expectations, but without having a significant impact on the market.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is approaching the resistance line of the ascending channel, the boundaries of which are in the range of 0.6500–0.6100.Technical indicators reinforce buy signals. The averages on the alligator indicator are pointing upwards. The awesome oscillator (AO) indicator has formed several ascending bars in the positive zone, which confirms the potential for further growth.Trading recommendations- Long positions: can be considered after the price rises and fixes above the level of 0.6400 with a target of 0.6530. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6320.- Sales are relevant after the price drops and fixes below the level of 0.6350 with a target of 0.6200. The stop loss is ...

EUR/GBP: the pair ends the trading week in the red zoneThe European currency is showing a moderate decline in the EUR/GBP pair during morning trading, continuing the steady downward trend that began on Wednesday, when quotes finally moved away from the local peaks reached on January 24.Despite the steady "bearish" mood, the macroeconomic statistics of the eurozone remains quite stable and provides some support to the euro. In annual terms, industrial production showed zero dynamics after a 1.5% decline in December, exceeding analysts' expectations of -0.9%. On a monthly basis, the indicator increased by 0.8% after a decrease of 0.4% a month earlier, which also exceeded forecasts of 0.6%. A particularly noticeable increase was recorded in Germany, where production increased by 2.0% in January after a 1.5% decline in December.However, the pressure on the single currency is increasing due to doubts about the stability of the region's economy. Earlier, the euro received support against the background of announced large-scale investments in the rearmament of Europe and the creation of a 500.0 billion euro fund in Germany for infrastructure and defense projects. However, not all EU countries approve of such a significant increase in military spending, which may weaken the positive effect of these initiatives. An additional risk for the euro remains foreign trade factors: investors are concerned about the prospects of new US duties imposed by the administration of Donald Trump, as well as a possible escalation of trade disputes between the US and the EU.Resistance levels: 0.8384, 0.8400, 0.8419, 0.8437.Support levels: 0.8370, 0.8355, 0.8340, 0.8326.USD/CAD: dollar maintains weak upward momentumThe US dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the USD/CAD pair during morning trading, consolidating at 1.4433: previously, the instrument's active growth was due to the publication of strong data on the US labor market.Investors are also analyzing the results of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which decided on March 12 to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the lowest level since September 2022. The regulator's officials noted that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded expectations, but warned of a possible slowdown amid global trade tensions caused by new tariff restrictions from the United States.Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), statistics on manufacturing sales in Canada will be released: analysts expect an increase of 2.0% after an increase of 0.3% a month earlier, and wholesale sales may recover by 1.9% after a decrease of 0.2% in December.Resistance levels: 1.4451, 1.4472, 1.4500, 1.4550.Support levels: 1.4400, 1.4350, 1.4300, 1.4250.USD/TRY: dollar reaches historic peak againThe USD/TRY exchange rate is showing mixed dynamics near the 36.6790 mark, as market participants monitor US trade policy, negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the latest data on inflation in the United States.The February statistics reflected a slowdown in the core consumer price index from 3.3% to 3.1% year-on-year, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 3.2%, as well as a weakening of the monthly index from 0.4% to 0.2%. Inflation in the manufacturing sector also decreased: the core producer price index dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%, and the overall indicator dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%, which increased expectations of an early easing of the Fed's policy, although the rate is likely to remain unchanged until June.The Central Bank of Turkey, for its part, continues to adjust monetary policy to reduce inflationary pressure: in March, the regulator lowered the rate from 45.00% to 42.50%, hoping to achieve a reduction in inflation to 24.00% by the end of the year. According to the Turkish Institute of Statistics, consumer prices have already slowed from 42.12% to 39.05% in February, which confirms the trend towards gradual stabilization.Resistance levels: 36.7100, 36.7886, 36.8500, 36.9000.Support levels: 36.6500, 36.6000, 36.5406, 36.5000.AUD/USD: the pair is consolidating without an obvious trendAgainst the background of weak volatility of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, trading around 0.6290 as part of an upward correction.The Australian currency remains under pressure, but positive data from the real estate market temporarily supports its position. In January, the total number of approved construction permits increased by 6.3% to 16,597 thousand in monthly terms and by 21.7% year-on-year. In the private sector, the number of new homes increased by 1.1% to 9,042 thousand on a monthly basis and by 8.9% over the year, while the number of private buildings not related to residential real estate increased by 12.7% to 7,213 thousand per month and by 41.6% per year. The cost of the entire development increased by 4.5%, reaching 9.04 billion Australian dollars, but the non-residential segment showed a decrease of 20.7% to 5.69 billion Australian dollars.Support levels: 0.6260, 0.6140.Resistance levels: 0.6320, ...

EUR/USD: technical analysis indicates continued growthThe EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement, trading near the 1.0902 mark against the background of the weakening of the US dollar. Investors reacted positively to the results of the meeting between representatives of the United States and Ukraine, seeing them as a possible step towards resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but macroeconomic statistics turned out to be ambiguous and could not become a strong driver of price growth.Thus, German imports in January showed a slowdown from 1.6% to 1.2%, while exports moved to negative dynamics, falling from 2.5% to -2.5%, which led to a reduction in the trade surplus from 20.7 billion euros to 16.0 billion euros. At the same time, industrial production accelerated from -1.5% to 2.0% in monthly terms and from -2.26% to -1.49% in annual terms over the same period. The head of the German Federal Bank, Joachim Nagel, expressed support for the initiatives of the future government aimed at easing budget constraints and creating a special fund in the amount of 500.0 billion euros to finance defense and infrastructure projects. At the same time, he stressed that for Germany's long-term economic growth, it is necessary to focus on increasing the supply of labor, reforming the energy sector, reducing bureaucratic barriers and reducing tax pressure on businesses.Resistance levels: 1.0950, 1.1110.Support levels: 1.0850, 1.0680.AUD/USD: Australian dollar is holding at 0.6270After rising by 1.44% over the past week, the AUD/USD pair is consolidating at the 0.6270 support, awaiting the February US inflation data, which will be released today at 14:30 (GMT+2).Forecasts suggest that the consumer price index will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, which may increase pressure on the US dollar if the Fed signals a softer monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at the level of March 19 is 97.0%, and its reduction by 25 basis points in May is 40.9%.On Thursday at 02:30 (GMT+2), Australia will publish data on building permits for January: an increase of 6.3% on a monthly basis is expected, which may support the Australian currency. If the indicator is confirmed, it will be a signal of economic recovery after a prolonged recession since the end of 2023.Resistance levels: 0.6370, 0.6450.Support levels: 0.6270, 0.6147.Silver market analysisAfter a short-term consolidation below the 32.00 mark, the XAG/USD pair resumed its growth, which is due to the unique structure of demand for silver. Unlike platinum and palladium, this metal is in demand both in industry and among investors, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in market sentiment. An additional support factor was the growth in the number of Silver Institute participants: seven new companies joined the organization in 2024, and three more in the first two months of 2025, including Skeena Gold & Silver, Silver Tiger Metals, and TCA S.p.A.Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) confirms the increased interest in silver. In recent reporting periods, the number of manufacturers' long positions increased by 0.453 thousand, while sellers reduced volumes by 8,192 thousand contracts. The balance in the segment of positions secured by real capital remains on the side of the bulls — 47,823 thousand against 13,620 thousand for the bears, which indicates a high level of confidence in the asset.Resistance levels: 33.10, 34.80.Support levels: 32.30, 30.80.Crude Oil market analysisIn the morning trading, WTI Crude Oil continues to strengthen, developing the growth momentum that was formed the day before, and is testing the 66.30 level for an upward breakout. However, traders remain cautious, preferring to wait for the publication of US inflation data at 14:30 (GMT+2), which may affect the dynamics of quotations.According to preliminary forecasts, the core consumer price index for February will slow down to 3.2% in annual terms (against 3.3% earlier) and 0.3% on a monthly basis (from 0.4%), while the overall index will decrease from 3.0% to 2.9% and from 0.5% to 0.3%, respectively. Nevertheless, the dollar's reaction may be restrained, as investors are more focused on the trade policy of the Donald Trump administration. This month, 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% tariffs on a number of Chinese goods, have already entered into force, and new restrictions on steel and aluminum supplies to the United States are expected in the near future.Additional pressure on the market was exerted by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed an increase in oil reserves by 4.247 million barrels for the week of March 7 after a previous decrease of 1.455 million barrels, while experts predicted an increase of only 2.1 million barrels. At 15:30 (GMT+2), a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released, which, according to forecasts, will also reflect an increase in reserves by 2.1 million barrels after a previous increase of 3.614 million barrels. Additionally, the agency adjusted the forecast of oil production in 2025, increasing it by 20 thousand. barrels per day — up to 13.61 million barrels.Resistance levels: 67.00, 67.50, 68.25, 69.00.Support levels: 66.00, 64.96, 64.00, ...

AUD/USD showed a moderate decline during Tuesday's Asian session, developing an uncertain "bearish" trend that began to form at the end of last week. Quotes are testing the 0.6260 level for a downward breakdown, while market participants expect new catalysts for further movement. The pair's growth potential is limited due to uncertainty in US trade policy, which reduces interest in risky assets, including the Australian dollar.China, Australia's largest trading partner, has imposed "mirror" duties on some American agricultural products in response to the increase in US tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 20%. Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), noted that global trade uncertainty has reached a 50-year high. This may force companies and households to postpone investments and planning, which will negatively affect economic growth.Data on consumer inflation in the United States will be published tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2). The annual rate is expected to decrease from 3.0% to 2.9%, and the monthly rate from 0.5% to 0.3%. The base index, which excludes food and energy resources, may also drop from 3.3% to 3.2% on an annual basis and from 0.4% to 0.3% on a monthly basis. This may strengthen expectations of further easing of the Fed's monetary policy. However, markets fear that an escalation of trade wars could lead to an acceleration of inflation in the future. In particular, the introduction of new tariffs on goods from the EU, as well as on steel and aluminum imports to the United States, is not excluded.The recently released data from Australia did not provide significant support to the Australian dollar. The Westpac consumer confidence index rose from 0.1% to 4.0% in March, while the National Australia Bank's business conditions index increased from 3.0 to 4.0 points in February. However, the business confidence index decreased from 5.0 to -1.0 points, indicating a deterioration in business sentiment.AUD/USD Technical Analysis for todayAccording to the Daily, the Bollinger indicator shows a moderate decline, while the price range is narrowing, reflecting the mixed nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is declining, maintaining a weak sell signal. Stochastic also shows a decrease, being in the middle of the working area.Trading recommendations- Selling deals after the breakdown of the 0.6250 level down with a target of 0.6200. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6274.- Purchases will be relevant in case of a rebound from the 0.6250 level and an upward breakdown of the 0.6274 level. The target will be 0.6330. In this case, the stop loss should be placed at ...

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar continues to develop the bullish momentum formed at the beginning of the week. AUD/USD quotes are testing the 0.6345 level for an upward breakout, updating local highs since February 24.Data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published today at 15:30 (GMT+2). It is expected that the number of initial requests will decrease from 242.0 thousand to 235.0 thousand for the week of February 28, and repeat requests (for the week of February 21) may grow from 1,862 million to 1,880 million.The February labor market report will be released tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2), which may influence further Fed decisions. It is predicted that the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector will grow from 143.0 thousand to 160.0 thousand, and the average hourly wage will slow down from 0.5% to 0.3% in monthly terms. The annual wage rate will remain at 4.1%, while the unemployment rate will remain at 4.0%.On Thursday morning, Australia's foreign trade data was released. Exports increased by 1.3% in January, which was 0.1% higher than in December, while imports decreased by 0.3% after rising by 5.9% in the previous month. As a result, the trade surplus expanded from 4.92 billion to 5.62 billion Australian dollars, exceeding expectations of 5.50 billion. Market participants also assessed the data on the number of building permits, which increased by 6.3% month-on-month and 21.7% year-on-year in January, compared with 1.7% and 12.2% a month earlier.Investors continue to analyze the minutes of the last RBA meeting, at which the rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 4.10% for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The head of the regulator, Michelle Bullock, noted the stability of the labor market, but expressed doubts about the return of inflation to the target 2.0% at lower rates, especially against the background of uncertainty caused by the US tariff policy. According to the ASX rates indicator, the market estimates the probability of another 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting on April 1 at 14%.AUD/USD technical analysis for todayOn the daily AUD/USD chart, the Bollinger indicator shows a horizontal reversal, which indicates a narrowing of the price range. The MACD indicator is growing and holds a strong buy signal. Stochastic maintains its upward momentum, but is approaching the overbought zone, which indicates a possible correction in the short term.Trading recommendations- It is advisable to enter the purchase after the breakdown of the 0.6373 level upwards with a target of 0.6450. It is recommended to set the stop loss at 0.6330.- An opportunity for sales will appear in the event of a rebound from the 0.6373 level and a breakdown of the 0.6330 level downwards with a target of 0.6250. In this case, the stop loss should be placed at ...

USD/CHF: quarterly employment in Switzerland in the spotlightThe USD/CHF pair is in the correction phase, trading around 0.8969, with the potential for further decline amid strong macroeconomic data from Switzerland.A stable labor market remains one of the key factors supporting the franc. In the fourth quarter, employment in the non-agricultural sector increased by 0.9%, equivalent to 48.3 thousand new jobs. At the same time, the number of open vacancies decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, which indicates a high level of job occupancy. The share of companies planning to expand their staff was 11.7%, while only 4.7% of employers intend to reduce staff. This stability in the labor market provides the Swiss National Bank with additional arguments in favor of further lowering the interest rate, which is likely to reach 0.00% by the end of the year.Resistance levels: 0.9000, 0.9120.Support levels: 0.8940, 0.8810.AUD/USD: the exchange rate moved to correction before the inflation reportThe Australian dollar is showing moderate growth in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, correcting the previous two-day decline. After a pullback from local highs on December 12, the exchange rate is testing the 0.6350 level, trying to gain a foothold higher, while traders expect new factors that can affect the dynamics. Meanwhile, the sale of shares of leading Australian banks has stopped after eight sessions of decline caused by the first decrease in interest rates since November 2020 and an increase in overdue debt. In particular, the capitalization of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia has decreased by about 25 billion Australian dollars during this time. The key event for the market will be the publication of January inflation data in Australia, which is scheduled for tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2). According to forecasts, the annual consumer price index may rise from 2.5% to 2.6%, which may support the national currency. Investors' attention will also be focused on statistics on completed construction: the indicator for the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to slow down from 1.6% to 1.0%.The final report on US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 will be released on the US market on Thursday at 15:30 (GMT+2), and experts do not predict a revision of the value from 2.3%. On the same day, data on applications for unemployment benefits and January orders for durable goods are expected to be published, which may grow by 2.5% after a December decline of -2.2%. On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants will assess the key inflation indicator for the US Federal Reserve — the price index of personal consumption expenditures. Analysts expect a slowdown in the base indicator from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year, while monthly growth may accelerate from 0.2% to 0.3%. The overall index is also expected to reach 2.5%, adding 0.3% over the month.Resistance levels: 0.6373, 0.6408, 0.6450, 0.6478.Support levels: 0.6330, 0.6300, 0.6274, 0.6250.Gold market analysisDuring the Asian trading session, gold is showing a decline, rolling back from historical highs recorded the day before and testing support at 2935.75. Pressure on gold is exerted by a decrease in geopolitical tensions associated with the likely progress of peace talks on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The weakening demand for protective assets contributes to the reorientation of investors to riskier instruments, which further limits the metal's growth potential.Market participants' attention is also focused on the latest economic data from the United States. According to the S&P Global report, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector rose from 51.2 to 51.6 points in February, exceeding the projected 51.5 points, while the services sector saw a sharp decline from 52.9 to 49.7 points, which turned out to be worse than the expected 53.0 points. Additional pressure on the dollar was exerted by a decrease in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in January from 67.8 to 64.7 points, despite neutral forecasts. Also, data on the Chicago Federal Reserve's national activity index was released yesterday, which fell from 0.18 to -0.03 points in January, reflecting a weakening in economic activity. The December housing price index from S&P/Case-Shiller will be published today at 16:00 (GMT+2), and at 17:00 (GMT+2) and 17:30 (GMT+2), markets expect the publication of business activity indices in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. which can set the further direction of the dollar's movement and, accordingly, affect the dynamics of gold.Resistance levels: 2956.19, 2980.00, 3000.00, 3025.00.Support levels: 2920.00, 2900.00, 2875.00, 2858.06.Crude Oil market analysisThe price of Brent crude oil remains under pressure, correcting in a downward movement and trading just below the 75.00 mark. The market is influenced by two factors at once: the trade policy of US President Donald Trump, which implies possible changes in import duties, as well as the prospects for an increase in oil supplies from Iraq. These circumstances increase uncertainty and create negative expectations among investors.Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdel Ghani announced that the transportation of raw materials from Kurdistan to Turkey will resume next week. The cost of the supplied oil will be $ 16.0 per barrel, and the state-owned SOMO company will handle its sale. According to preliminary estimates, the volume of supplies in the first months will range from 300.0 to 500.0 thousand barrels per day, which may increase pressure on the market.Additional attention of traders is focused on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on fuel reserves, which will be released today at 23:30 (GMT+2). Experts predict that after the previous increase of 3.339 million barrels, the figure will change slightly. Tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT+2), data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be published, and if they confirm the positive dynamics of last week, when stocks increased by 4,633 million barrels, this may strengthen the current trend in the market.Resistance levels: 75.30, 78.00.Support levels: 73.70, ...

AUD/USD ("Aussie") is a currency pair popular among traders, consisting of the Australian and American dollars.The base currency in this combination is AUD, that is, when buying a pair, you need to pay US dollars. We will talk about the specifics of working with this financial instrument today.AUD/USD is the sixth most popular quote to date. Up to 5% of transactions carried out on the international market are connected with the Australian dollar. There are a number of advantages that make AUD as interesting as possible for financial market players.Firstly, it is the stability of the political situation in the country, the geographical location of which makes its economy as protected as possible from external negative influences such as the tense international situation. The Australian dollar is quite stable relative to speculative operations.Secondly, the current strategy of the Bank of Australia, which has been keeping the interest rate stable for more than a decade and a half, is a plus. Thanks to this, investors can earn both by investing in long-term deposits and by playing on the carry trade.AUD is often called an agricultural and raw material currency. The first is explained by the high dependence of the country's economy on the volume of harvest and factors that can affect it. The title of "raw currency" is due to the fact that the local budget is quite seriously focused on the income received from the sale of gold. Thus, the exchange rate of the local currency is closely related to the dynamics of prices for this precious metal.Factors influencing the AUDUSD rate and what quotes depend onThe interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia has the greatest impact on the value of the Australian currency. Decisions are made by the monetary policy committee within the framework of the meeting of the central bank of this country. The committee includes the head of the RBA, a representative of the Ministry of Finance, as well as 6 representatives appointed by the Australian government.Naturally, the trader is not concerned about the rate itself, but about its dynamics and the possibility of change.If the market expects it to rise, the Australian dollar will be in high demand.Accordingly, if it is assumed that the RBA will cut the interest rate, the Australian dollar will decline.You can follow the news of the Australian Bank on its official website: http://www.rba.gov.au/Read more: USD/JPY: chart, forecast for today, currency pair overviewHow can traders use this information? The RBA meetings are held every month on a strictly defined date and time. Knowing in advance that such an event is planned for the week, a trader can analyze the information and determine what the market expectations are. In addition, you can open a deal after the bid is announced and catch the trend.Another determining factor is inflation. Its dynamics may also have an impact on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar. How does this affect the market? The fact is that the RBA considers the inflation rate of 2-3% as a target. Any value above this indicator may lead to consideration of the possibility of tightening monetary policy (an increase in the interest rate).Accordingly, if inflation statistics are published (retail price index), and the result turns out to be higher than 3%, for example, this may lead to a rise in the price of the Australian dollar, since the market in this case believes that the RBA will take restraining measures, which are expressed, for example, in an increase in the interest rate.If the retail price index turns out to be below the target levels (or significantly lower), the Australian dollar may fall in price, as the market will consider such statistics as a signal for the RBA to take softer actions to stimulate domestic consumer prices.Economic growth rates (GDP dynamics) play an important role in the formation of the Australian dollar. After all, the faster the economy grows, the more funds are invested in various assets. Accordingly, there is an increase in demand for the currency. Another important point is that faster economic growth leads to the fact that the state (in this case, Australia) stops stimulating the economy through a lower rate.The AUD USD currency pair, however, this indicator is lagging and is published in the economic calendar once a quarter. Therefore, traders pay attention to earlier statistics on business activity. It also reflects the situation in the economy, and the dynamics of business activity can cause significant fluctuations in the market.The situation on the labor market also has an impact on the Australian dollar, although indirectly. An increase in unemployment leads to a drop in household incomes and a decrease in domestic consumption. It may also indicate significant problems in the country's economy and a decline in business activity. Accordingly, the government and the RBA may decide on measures to stimulate the economy.If unemployment decreases, this indicates positive trends in the economy and may lead to an increase in the Australian dollar, all other things being equal.News analysisTypes of AUD/USD news can be divided into three categories:Economic. First of all, of course, the events taking place in Australia and the USA are taken into account. If there are serious differences between the predicted and published indicator, we should expect serious market fluctuations.Financial. It evaluates inflation rates, currency interventions, interest rates, etc.Weather conditions. As mentioned above, the Australian dollar exchange rate is closely related to crop prices. Information about possible natural disasters (hurricanes, droughts, etc.) signals a decrease in AUD.Read more: GBP/USD exchange rate (Online Chart), forecast for todayCommodities and other external factorsThe AUDUSD rate is affected by the situation on the raw materials market. Australia is an exporter of gold, iron ores, gas, oil, and coal. The economy of this country is very dependent on the export of raw materials. Therefore, its prices significantly affect the value of the Australian dollar. Approximately the same situation is observed in Canada and Russia, where the local currency depends on oil prices.Another important external factor is the situation of trading partners. For Australia, it's China and Japan. If positive news comes from these countries, it can have a positive effect on the fluctuations of the Australian dollar.AUDUSD growth is also possible when investors are in search of a so-called currency haven. When the markets are restless, players very often buy either gold (which leads to an increase in the Australian dollar), or the Australian dollar itself.Why is this currency in demand in such situations? The fact is that Australia has a ratio of public debt to GDP of less than 50%.All of the above factors have a serious impact on the Australian dollar. But you can trade it even without knowledge in the field of fundamental analysis. It is enough just to study the technical method of forecasting. There are a lot of strategies that can bring a good profit.The Australian dollar, like many other currencies, is predictable, both in terms of graphical patterns and in terms of various trend and oscillatory indicators.Trading on AUD USDAs already mentioned, the AUDUSD quote displays the value of the Australian dollar relative to the American one.The "Aussie" item is equal to the lot multiplied by the minimum change in the quote. For one lot, the item will be ten USD = 100,000 x 0.0001. In the case of a multiple decrease or increase in the lot, it will change accordingly.Fluctuations of the currency pair during the day can reach 100 points, as a result of which even traders with modest financial capabilities get the opportunity to earn seriously. Spreads are usually small here, so you can play both on long-term and short-term periods.The fact is that it is in the morning that the Australian and Asian exchanges begin to work. Historical extremes and support/resistance levels are easily tracked on the AUD/USD chart, and graphic figures (triangles, pennants, etc.) are often observed. Another distinctive feature of this currency pair is its high susceptibility to news.Read more: AUD/CAD: exchange rate, online forecast, currency pair overviewFeatures of the currency pairThe Australian dollar has a free exchange rate that is not pegged to USD. The following pairs have the greatest impact on quotes: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD, and USD/JPY.The most effective means of trading AUD/USD are traditional trend-following strategies.It is believed that the movements here are more straightforward than, for example, on EUR/ USD. Both pairs have an average volatility of 70-80 points during the day. However, when trading EUR/USD, it increases sharply around 12 o'clock GMT, whereas AUD/USD is distributed relatively evenly. This makes it easier to work with the Australian dollar, so this currency pair is perhaps even more suitable for beginners.It is widely believed that the AUD/USD rate can be considered almost a "twin" of NZD/USD. The logic is clear enough. New Zealand has almost all the advantages of Australia, with one exception – the latter's economy is more stable and developed. If we talk about some close similarity of the "Aussie" with another currency pair, it is AUD/CAD (Australian/Canadian dollar).Separately, it is worth noting the presence of a positive correlation with the gold chart.Trends here also coincide quite often:Gold – Red Price LineAUDUSD is a currency pair that can be recommended to all lovers of long-term trading. "Long" strategies are favored by the stability of the economies of both its participants. A relatively low spread makes it possible to trade on short-term periods.Given the fact that the Australian dollar acts as the base currency, special attention should be paid to news related to this country. The AUD USD exchange rate is largely determined by the consumption of commodities, the main buyer of which is China. Thus, it makes sense to closely monitor what is happening with the economy of China.Working with this financial instrument requires a thorough technical and news analysis. For fans of multi-currency strategies, it makes sense to additionally pay attention to the charts of gold, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, AUD/CAD and ...